The Peerless Prognosticator is…ugh.
Yeah, yeah, back to hockey.
You will have to pardon us, as we were making rather merry last night as
our alma mater turned red roses green in the Rose Bowl.
But tonight the Washington Capitals hope to make the
Carolina Hurricanes see red at Verizon Center in the first contest of the new
year.
These are two teams happy to see the calendar flip over to a
new year. Washington ended 2013 with a
3-3-3 record in their last nine games, 1-2-2 in their last five. Meanwhile, Carolina ended 2013 even worse – 2-4-4
in their last ten games, 1-3-2 in their last six contests, and they had to
score four goals in the third period against Montreal to force an overtime to
get their lone win in those last six games.
Here is a tale o’ the tape over their respective last ten
games…
These are two teams not playing especially well. They give up too many goals, especially on
the opponents’ power play. Their 5-on-5
close score situation metrics are poor; their respective PDO values (sum of
shooting and save percentages) are equally meager. So, what should we pay attention to with
these teams?
1. Starting with a
three-point effort against the Caps in a 4-1 win back on December 3rd,
Jeff Skinner is 12-4-16 in his last 13 games.
Rather Ovechkinesque numbers in their goals scored and balance. He has 57 shots on goal in those 13 games,
too. Not quite Ovechkin-level, but at
4.4 shots per game over that stretch he is not shy about letting fly.
2.. Skinner’s production has been mirrored by that of Eric Staal. Over those same 13 games Staal is 2-10-12. However, he is a minus-7 over his last four
games. Things will happen with Staal on
the ice.
3. As for Staal, the
Younger, Jordan is holding his own. He
is 3-6-9 over his last 11 games. He has
not been especially effective against the Caps with a 7-2-9 scoring line in 29
career games.
4. Will Justin Faulk
suffer a hangover after being selected to the U.S. Olympic team? His numbers lately have not been impressive,
scoring-wise, anyway. Since a
three-point effort against Nashville on December 5th, he is 1-1-2,
minus-3, in 11 games. He has not been
shy about pulling the trigger. He has 20
shots on goal in his last six games from the blue line with one goal to show
for it.
5. Will it be Cam
Ward for the Hurricanes in goal? Caps
fans might hope so. In his last 12
appearances in which he played a full game he allowed three or more goals 12
times. In his last 13 appearances
overall he is 5-5-2, 3.30, .885.
(note: No, it won't be Ward in goal. He is listed as out with a lower-body injury).
(note: No, it won't be Ward in goal. He is listed as out with a lower-body injury).
1. On the other side
of the Olympic hangover issue is John Carlson.
He has struggled some with offense lately, going 1-2-3, minus-3, over
his last 15 games.
2. Marcus Johansson
is in another of his periodic scoring funks.
He had a five-game points steak from December 10-20 (2-4-6). However, he is taking a five-game streak
without a point into this contest. What’s
more, he is light on his shots on goal, especially for a top-line winger, only
five over those five games.
3. Back in late
October, Jason Chimera embarked on a four-game goal scoring streak, and it
looked as if he might challenge that 20-goal season he had in 20-11-2012. However, since he potted one in the Caps’ 7-0
win in Philadelphia on November 1st, he has two goals in his last 27
games.
4. Mikhail Grabovski
has settled into a rhythm. He has not
had consecutive games without a point since November 23-27, covering 13 games
over which he is 4-7-11.
5. On November 23rd,
Braden Holtby stopped 27 of 28 shots in a 2-1 trick shot loss to the Toronto
Maple Leafs. Since then, however, Holtby
is 3-3-1 in eight appearances, 4.03, .890.
If he is the Caps’ number one goalie, those are not numbers compatible
with that role.
So what’s it going to be?
A run-and-gun, shootout kind of game? No, not that kind of shootout,
more like the one at the end of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. It certainly could be. Neither team is playing good defense, neither
team is getting good possession numbers, neither team is getting good
goaltending (or at least consistently good goaltending from those who are
supposed to be providing it), and their penalty killing is undistinguished. It might be entertaining, if not quite an aesthetic
marvel for those who appreciate such things. Still…
Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 3
No comments:
Post a Comment