The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take a step up in weight class in
their schedule this week, starting with Tuesday’s tilt against the San Jose
Sharks.
The Capitals’ history against the Sharks is, to be kind,
unpleasant. Once upon a time, when the
Sharks were merely pups, the Capitals owned the series. Washington won the first five meetings in
this series, but then things took a turn in 1993. After scoring a total of 23 goals in the
first five games between the clubs, the Caps managed just one goal in 18 shots
against Sharks goalie Arturs Irbe in a 2-1 loss at USAir Arena in Landover, MD.
With that win, the momentum headed west. Including that win, San Jose went 5-3-1
against the Caps over the next nine meetings.
Those ended what would be the “good old days" for the Caps in this
series. Since Washington beat the
Sharks, 3-1, on February 20, 1999, the Caps are 1-15-1 against San Jose, a 4-1
win in October 2009 being the only win for the Caps in that span.
What is more, the games generally have not been close. Nine of the 15 San Jose wins have been of the
two-or-more goal variety, five of them by three or more goals. Only four times in those 17 games have the
Caps solved the Sharks for more than two goals, only twice in their last 12
games against San Jose.
The current edition of the Sharks is a bit hard to figure
out. Looking at their record (28-12-6)
and their position in the standings (second in the Pacific Division), they look
once more like a solid playoff club and a possible Stanley Cup contender, their
profile over the last decade. However, the Sharks have hit a few potholes recently.
Since defeating the Anaheim Ducks in the front half of a back-to-back
set on December 29th, San Jose has alternated wins and losses
(4-4-0).
Over those eight games the Sharks have a total of 22 goals,
five of them from Joe Pavelski. Not the
biggest of centers (5’11”, 190), Pavelski finds a way to get things done. With 21 goals so far this season he has
already surpassed last year’s total (16), and his 37-goal pace would be a
career best in eight seasons. It is part
of a longer hot streak for Pavelski, who has 12 goals in his last 16
games. He has been a particular thorn in
the side of the Capitals, going 5-4-9 in seven career games against Washington.
Only one active player has more career assists
than does Joe Thornton. If Jaromir Jagr, with his 1,030 assists at the moment, ever retires, Thornton will inherit the mantle of assist leader among active players, but the 832 assists he has in 1,171
games will have to do for second place for the time being.
In the 4-4-0 run over their last eight games, Thornton has eight
assists, giving him a league-leading total of 45. He is 12-24-36 in 35 career games against
Washington.
If there is a surprise among the San Jose scorers of late,
it might be defenseman Jason Demers. Not
generally known as an offensive defenseman (his career best is 21 points in 75
games in the 2010-2011 season), he is 1-5-6 in his last eight games and 3-6-9
in his last 11 contests.
Here is how the teams break down so far this season:
1. San Jose does a
lot of things fairly well, but they do not stand out from the pack in any
individual area. They are top ten in
scoring offense, just outside the top ten in scoring defense. They are top-ten in 5-on-5 goals scored/goals
allowed ratio. They are 11th
in power play, 11th in penalty killing. They lead the league in shots on goal per
game, yet are also top-ten in fewest shots on goal allowed. This is a team that can, at least in theory,
find a lot of different ways to win when one part of their game or another is
not working.
2. What San Jose
seems not to do especially well is win one-goal games. They are tied for 14th in winning
percentage in one-goal contests, losing as many games as they win
(11-5-6).
3. The Sharks are a
very disciplined team. They have the
fourth fewest penalty minutes per game and the fewest minor penalties taken, and by
a rather healthy margin (134 to 146 for Colorado). No team has found itself shorthanded less
often than the Sharks (2.6 times per game).
4. San Jose puts
teams away early. They have outscored
opponents by a 51-22 margin in the first period of games. They have earned points in 21 of 22 games in
which they took a lead into the first intermission (17-1-4).
5. As one might
expect with a club that does a lot of things well, the Sharks are an
accomplished possession team. In 5-on-5
close score situations San Jose is third in the league in Fenwick-for percentage,fourth in Corsi-for percentage. If there is a crack, though, here is where it
is. The Sharks wobbled in their
possession over their last four games, going over 50 percent in Fenwick-for and
Corsi-for shares twice and falling short of 50 percent in both twice. They also have shot in bad luck in those
situations, twice with a shooting percentage of 0.0 in those four games (on 31
total shots). They lost both games, 3-2
to Nashville and 1-0 to Boston.
1. The Caps are 3-3-4
in their last 10 games. They are
5-for-26 on the power play over those ten games (19.2 percent). They are 1-1-4 in games in which they did not
score a power play goal. Coincidence? We’re going to guess, “no.” Too dependent on scoring power play goals for
success.
2. January has not
yet been kind to the penalty killers, either.
The Caps are 12-for-18 for the month so far (66.7 percent) and 30-for-42
in their last 12 games (71.4 percent).
3. Let’s say Braden
Holtby gets a start. Let’s just
say. He seems to have had focus issues so far. Look at his save percentages by period --
.916 in the first period, .903 in the second, and .908 in the third. And, if you take out the three times he was
relieved in or after the first period, his first period save percentage is
.939. Something has been happening as
games go on.
4. The Caps have a
curious statistic when allowing the first goal.
They do a better job than most of squeezing a point out of it. No team has more overtime losses than the
Caps when trailing first (six). At least
there is a point at the end of the day.
5. The Caps are
slowly, but surely climbing the possession charts. They are up to 22nd in Corsi-for
percentage (48.6) and 24th in Fenwick-for percentage, but within
rounding error of 22nd place (47.9 percent) in 5-on-5 close
situations.
A lot of that is due to the Mike Green-Dmitry Orlov pair, who lead the team in
those values, well to the good side of 50 percent.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
San Jose: Antti Niemi
Antti Niemi does not often appear on short lists of the best
goaltenders in the game. Part of that
might be playing on the west coast, where players sometimes suffer a lack of
attention that their east coast counterparts get. But there is also the matter that he has not
had an extraordinary record stopping pucks.
His save percentage this season -- .913 – is consistent with his career
mark (.916). But he does one thing
consistently. He wins; tied for second
in the league at the moment (although he has done so in the league’s most
appearances).
However, his is a stat line this year of a strange
character. Only 12 times in 40
appearances so far has Niemi faced more than 30 shots on goal. He is 7-2-3 in those games. That’s not the strange part. Only twice in those 12 instances did he face
more than 30 shots against an Eastern Conference team – 36 in a 5-4 Gimmick
loss to Buffalo and 37 in a 5-1 win over Tampa Bay. Niemi is 3-0-1, 1.98, .927 in four career
appearances against the Caps.
Washington: Trooks Blaicher
It is one thing for the Caps to wait on whether Nicklas
Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin record a point in a game. When paired on the top line they did it
often, and the Caps were reasonably successful (although secondary scoring was
an issue). Over the last three games the
Caps experimented with breaking up Ovechkin and Backstrom, giving Backstrom the
assignment of spinning straw into gold.
That is, making Troy Brouwer and Brooks Laich productive on the second
forward line. To date, things have not
gone well. The trio has one point in
three games at even strength, that one coming against the Toronto Maple Leafs
when Nicklas Backstrom pilfered a puck and scored unassisted. If this experiment continues, this line has
to produce…something.
Keys:
1. Shots. This is going to be really simple. If the Caps are getting eight or fewer shots
per period in this game, it is the Sharks setting the tone.
2. Jumbo
Package. Joe Thornton has two or more
assists in 11 games this season. San
Jose is 11-0-0 in those games. In games
where he does not record a helper, the Sharks are 2-7-3. No Joe, no-go.
3. Balance. This is going to be a continuing theme going
forward. The Caps are 20-9-5 when either
or both of Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin record a point (20-5-2 when
Backstrom gets a point). They are 2-7-2
when neither posts a mark on the score sheet.
The Caps need to be more than just these two.
In the end…
You cannot like the Caps chances in this game. San Jose has owned this team as no other has –
not even the Pittsburgh Penguins – over the last, oh, 20 years. There is also the little matter of the Sharks
just being a better team on paper. Ah,
but the Sharks have struggled against the Metro so far this season (2-2-1), and
the Sharks are 1-3-0 in the eastern time zone of the U.S. This will be the
Sharks’ first trip into the eastern time zone since they dropped consecutive
games in back-to-back fashion at Pittsburgh and at Carolina back on December
5-6 (yes, we’re reaching, it’s what we do sometimes).
But there is this, perhaps more concrete notion. San Jose is neither an especially productive
road team (12-10-3), nor are they especially effective killing penalties (78.2
percent on the road). Both play into the
Capitals’ strengths. And, San Jose comes
into this game in less than fine fettle.
Five players are on injured reserve, including three significant offensive
cogs – Tomas Hertl, Martin Havlat, and Logan Couture.
This game has a familiar look to it. If you look at it in a certain way, the Caps
have the Sharks right where they want them.
Last season the Boston Bruins visited Verizon Center with a 14-3-2
record, sitting on top of the world. The
Caps were 8-11-1 and tied for last in the Southeast Division, 3-3-0 in their
previous six games. The Caps fell
behind, 3-0, in the first period of that one, and then made it all up in what
would be a 4-3 overtime win. History
repeats, and changes in the process…
Capitals 4 – Sharks 3
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