The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
As John Facenda might have put it, “we are here from the
frozen tundra of the Land of 10,000 Lakes…”
“I never uttered that ‘frozen tundra’ quote.”
Uh, not to put too fine a point on it, Mr. Facenda, but aren’t
you dead?
“As frozen as the tundra of Lambeau Field.”
What brings you out of the deep freeze, if I might ask?
“Because professional hockey in North America is a special
game…a unique game…played nowhere else on earth…”
The folks in Europe might want to have a word about that.
“It is a rare game.
The men who play it make it so.
Pro hockey is a mirror of North America, reflecting toughness, courage,
and self-denial. The game is wide open,
not confined. X’s and O’s on a
blackboard are translated to imagination on the ice. It can be one man rising above the obscurity
of the grim, no-glory duty of special teams.
It is the grinder clawing at the top of the crease and
devouring the opponent.
“The game is perpetual motion, a swirl of flying bodies and
constant collision, a two-and-a-half hour carnival of color, sound and
action. There’s glory in the legends of
this hard-muscled life, and there’s poetry in each season made of sweat and
strife. But now is the time to work and
strain at a sport that tests the spirit and challenges the brain.
“Do you fear the force of the shots, the slash of the skates? Go face them and fight them; be savage
again. A time for achievement, a time
for purpose, a time for glory.”
Couldn’t have said it better, myself. But here in January, glory is a hard thing to
come by. This starts the long hard slog that is the middle third of the
season. The holidays are over, the
playoffs are but a fog in the distance, and the Olympics are a thrilling hiatus
for only a few.
“Nice flourish, there.”
Thanks. Tonight the
Washington Capitals travel to the Land of 10,000 Lakes, all of them likely
frozen, to meet the Minnesota Wild at Xcel Energy Center. These teams have already met once this
season, back on November 7th at Verizon Center. The Wild and the Caps exchanged leads before
Marcus Johansson scored late in the third period for the Caps to tie the game
at 2-2. After a scoreless overtime,
Nicklas Backstrom recorded the only successful trick shot goal, and the Caps
were 3-2 winners.
Just as the Caps and Wild matched one another goal for goal
in their earlier meeting, so their recent histories have followed similar
paths. Washington is 3-3-4 in their last
ten contests, while Minnesota is 1-6-0 in their last seven contests.
Over that seven-game stretch the Wild have had trouble
keeping pucks out of their own net, allowing 27 goals over that span (3.86 per
game). As one might expect, scoring of
their own has been comparatively rare with only 17 goals in those seven games
(2.43 per game). The odd part of their
offense is that the Wild scored four goals in three of those games and lost two
of them, a 6-4 loss at Winnipeg and a 5-4 loss to the New York Islanders. The Wild beat Buffalo in their last contest,
4-1, to end what was a six-game losing streak.
While scoring overall has been hard to come by, two players
expected to produce have over this seven-game slide for the Wild. Jason Pominville leads the team with three
goals over the last seven games (3-3-6), while Ryan Suter leads in points
(2-5-7). Dany Heatley has a pair of
goals, as does Justin Fontaine (who has a name that sounds more like the
opening act for a teen heartthrob concert).
Fontaine is actually an interesting fellow. Undrafted, Fontaine went on to play four
years at University of Minnesota-Duluth.
After his third season he was invited to the Wild’s development camp and
had a chance to turn pro. He decided to play out his senior season at UMD, one
in which he was fourth in the nation in scoring, and his Bulldogs won the
national championship. In this, his
rookie season with the Wild, Fontaine is tied for seventh among rookies in
goals with eight.
One thing of particular concern for the Wild is their goaltending situation. Josh Harding, who
has taken on the heavier load of games this season, has had two leg injuries,
two illnesses (including one that kept him out of the last game), and missed
four games in December to change his treatment plan for his multiple sclerosis
condition. Meanwhile, Niklas Backstrom
has had to deal with a strained knee, a concussion, and a virus.
Against Buffalo on Thursday, Darcy Kuemper (recalled from Iowa) was Backstrom’s
backup.
Here is how the two teams stack up overall so far this
season…
1. Minnesota’s power
play has struggled of late. Over their
1-6-0 slump the Wild are 2-for-26 with the man advantage (7.7 percent). It is not a team that generates a lot of
chances, either. The Wild rank 24th
in the league in power play opportunities per game (3.16), although they have
had four or more chances in four of their last seven games.
2. The penalty kill
has had better success. In their last
seven games the Wild is killing penalties at an 85.0 percent rate
(17-for-20). They have been effective at
minimizing their exposure to opponents’ power plays, averaging 2.86 shorthanded
situations faced per game over that stretch.
3. The Wild waived
forward Zenon Konopka this week (he was claimed by Buffalo). He took almost half of the club’s 17 bouts on
the Wild fight card with him (seven in all).
Keith Ballard and Clayton Stoner now hold the team lead in that regard
with three apiece. Ballard, who is in
his first season with the Wild after spending the last three seasons in
Vancouver, has had a rocky start with his new club. He has missed 16 games to injury this season,
seven to a concussion and nine more to the evil “upper-body injury.” He is not much of a goal scorer – 36 in 571
career games and only three in his previous two seasons – and he does not yet
have one for the Wild. Caps fans, take
note.
5. Minnesota is just
about smack dab in the middle of your possession statistics – 13th
in Corsi-for and 15th in Fenwick-for percentages in 5-on-5 close
score situations. They rank a bit higher
in shot differential in such situations, 12th overall in shots for
percentage.
1. The Caps just
finished their worst six-game stretch of the season, one win in those six
games. They have been just bad enough to
be bad… 3.00 goals allowed per game, 2.33 goals scored per game. They were outshot in four of those games,
losing three of them.
2. The power play has
dried up of late, and we mean that on a couple of levels. In their six-game, 1-2-3 slide, the Caps are
2-for-15 with the man advantage (13.3 percent).
As much as the efficiency is the frequency. Fifteen power play opportunities in six games
(2.5 per game) is not taking advantage of the Caps biggest advantage on offense
this season.
3. Meanwhile, the penalty kill is a bit deceptive. Yes, the rate has been disappointing over the
last six games (76.5 percent), but the 17 shorthanded situations look pretty
good. That number is influenced by
facing no shorthanded situations in a 2-1 Gimmick loss to Buffalo. Washington has faced four shorthanded
situations in three of their last five games, and while the kill rate was
effective (11-for-12, 91.7 percent), the Caps lost all three games.
4. You would expect
that over a sufficiently high number of events, the sum of shooting percentage
and save percentage on ice for an individual player would be 100.0 (the logic
of the “PDO” statistic). Here is a
problem for the Caps in a nutshell. Of the
12 defensemen to have dressed for the Caps this season, only four have “PDO”numbers of 100 or greater at 5-on-5.
Only one of them – Steve Oleksy – has played in at least 30 games.
5. The note above is
a reflection of generally poor possession numbers, a fact that is not news to
Caps fans following the club closely. In those same 5-on-5 situations the Caps are 22nd in Corsi-for
percentage and 25th in Fenwick-for percentage. Those number deteriorate in 5-on-5 close
score situations – 26th in both measures.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Minnesota: Dany Heatley
With Zach Parise out with what appears to be a fractured
foot, the Wild could use some punch from the left side. Enter Dany Heatley. Once a 50-goal scorer –twice, actually (in
2005-2006 and 2006-2007) – Heatley has fallen into also-ran status as a goal
scorer. In three seasons preceding this one he had 61 goals in 198 games. That is a 25-goal pace over 82 games, which
is not bad, but not what the Wild might have had in mind when he and his $7.5
million cap hit was obtained from San Jose for Martin Havlat in July 2011. His eight goals in 43 games this year is an
even more sluggish scoring pace. He has
two goals in his last 16 games, but he does have a history against the Caps –
12-23-35 in 34 career games against Washington.
Washington: Mike
Green
On the one hand, Mike Green is yesterday’s news. Former Norris Trophy finalist, former top
offensive defenseman, former “Game Over” Green.
From that perspective, and from that of a lot of Caps fans, he is in the
last throes of his tenure in Washington, sure to be let go when his current
contract expires at the end of next season.
On the other, he is still in the top-30 in points among NHL defensemen
(tied for 27th), is top-20 in assists (tied for 19th),
and remains an effective power play performer (14th in points among
defensemen). What is perplexing about
Green is that for a guy on whose stick the puck spends a lot of time, he has
been a middle-of-the-road possession player this season – 56th among
131 defensemen playing in at least 75 percent of games thus far in Corsi-for
percentage in 5-on-5 situations, 65th in Fenwick-for percentage. Once the most fearsome offensive defenseman
in the league, Green struggled mightily early in the season. However, he has 14 points in his last 28
games, not up to his early career productivity but not bad, either. What he has not done is score himself. Three
of those 14 points are goals, his only three of the season. And, he has only one even-strength goal this
season. If the Caps are to make a
stronger push for a playoff spot, those numbers have to improve for Green.
Keys:
1. Start fast. The Caps have scored first in 19 of 41 games
so far and have a total of only 27 first period goals (tied for 21st
in the league). Sluggish starts put this
team in a bind that leads to a lot of other problems.
2. Pressure in
close. Minnesota allows only 27.0 shots
per game, fourth fewest in the league.
One-and done is not going to do it.
Flurries – following up on initial shots – will put pressure on what
might be a weakened goaltending situation that they are not used to, even when
healthy.
3. No yawning. The Caps seem to have trouble getting up for
games against clubs that are not marquee opponents. Minnesota qualifies as such an opponent. The Wild are the kind of club that can take
advantage of that to lull a club to sleep and win in dull fashion. No yawning.
Have some pep in your step!
In the end…
These are two clubs of similar records having arrived at
them in somewhat different ways. They
are studies in differing styles. Will
the Caps get the Ovechkin-Backstrom rush to get a win? Or, will the Wild make this a
station-to-station game with few offensive chances on either side, winning
close and late? Will Mike Green come out
of hibernation? Will Ryan Suter play
30-plus minutes and have no goals scored against while on ice? Two different teams, two different styles,
one result.
Capitals 3 – Wild 2
No comments:
Post a Comment