The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals finish up their two-game road swing
to start the season’s home stretch as they visit the Boston Bruins this
afternoon. The Caps are looking to tie
their longest winning streak of the season (four), while the Bruins look to
extend their streak of not losing games in regulation to six (3-0-2 coming into this game).
To date, the Caps have had good luck against Atlantic
Division teams, posting a 10-4-5 record.
However, this is the first time the Caps are meeting the class of the
division in the Bruins this season. In
Boston, the Caps face a formidable opponent, especially in TD Garden. No team in the league has posted more wins or
standings points at home than the Bruins (23 wins, 48 standings points won). That might prove a high hurdle to clear for
the Caps, but Washington is also facing a team that stubbed their toe in their
last three games, losing two of them in overtime.
Boston went 3-0-2 in February. In posting that record they split 20 goals
among 11 different skaters and points among 16 skaters. Milan Lucic and Brad Marchand led the club
with three goals apiece. Lucic added
four assists for seven points over the five games, but he did not lead the team
in points. That was a spot reserved for
Jarome Iginla, who went 2-6-8 in February, scoring points in each of the five
games. In fact, Iginla is 4-11-15 over
his last nine games and has points in eight of them.
Lucic and Iginla are two of the three Bruins who posted at
least four assists in five games in February.
The third is defenseman Torey Krug, who was 1-4-5 for the month and who
is 2-9-11 over his last 12 games. That
recent scoring burst has lifted Krug into a tie for 14th in scoring
among NHL defensemen and is the club leader among blueliners in that regard
(12-22-34).
Tuukka Rask has not faced a shot from an NHL shooter since
before the Sochi Olympics. Rask
backstopped Team Finland to a bronze medal in Sochi and was given the night off
in Boston’s first game back following the break, a 5-4 overtime loss to
Buffalo. In the run-up to the Olympic
break Rask was a bit off his game. He
was 1-1-1, 2.70, .904, the goals-against average and save percentage being a
substantial drop-off from his season numbers (2.14, .927). Rask has never beaten Washington in his
career (0-2-3, 3.41).
Here is how the teams compare in their numbers to date:
1. “B” stands for “Boston,” but it also stands for “balance.” The Bruins have eight skaters with at least
ten goals, five of them between 15 and 20 goals scored. They have 18 skaters with at least ten
points, four of them with between 40 and 50 points. Nine different players have power play goals,
11 have power play points. Four
different players have shorthanded goals, 13 players have game-winning
goals. Thirteen players are plus-10 or
better, five of them plus-20 or better. Even
penalty minutes – 20 players have at least ten PIMs this season, nine have at
least 30. This team does everything as a
group.
2. You score against
Boston at 5-on-5, you’re going to earn it.
No team in the East has allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5; only Tampa Bay
(91) is within a dozen allowed by the Bruins (85).
3. Boston smothers
opponents. Only St. Louis (18) and
Pittsburgh (17) have more wins by three or more goals than Boston (16), and
only Chicago has fewer losses (3) by three or more goals than the Bruins (4).
4. For a team with a
reputation for rugged play, the Bruins play surprisingly within the rule
book. Boston has the 11th
fewest number of minor penalties called this season and is tied with Colorado,
Dallas, and New Jersey for the 11th fewest number of shorthanded
situations faced. They do like to mix it
up, though. Boston is third in fighting
majors this season (36), trailing only Philadelphia (38) and Vancouver (37).
5. As one might
expect for a team ranked as highly as the Bruins, they are a superior
possession team. In 5-on-5 close score
situations Boston ranks third in Corsi-for percentage and fourth in Fenwick-for
percentage.
1. The four-goal
performance notwithstanding, the Caps have had a decent run lately on defense,
allowing only seven goals over their last four games and holding two of those
opponents under 30 shots.
2. Washington is one
of the more productive teams on the road.
The Caps rank ninth in the league in goals scored on the road this
season, tied for fifth among teams in the East.
3. The Caps are still
struggling to hold leads. Washington is 25th in the league in
winning percentage when taking a lead into the first intermission of games, and
there is that whole two-goal lead thing.
4. The Caps spend
entirely too much time killing penalties, especially for a team that does not
do it especially well (tied for 17th in the league). Washington has faced 220 shorthanded
situations this season, sixth most in the league, and has found itself
shorthanded five or more times six times in their last dozen games (42-for-49
overall; 85.7 percent).
5. The Caps sometimes
play down to the level of their opponent.
Case in point, the last game against Florida where the possession
numbers varied wildly by situation. For example,
the Caps dominated play in 5-on-5 close score situations, putting up Corsi-for
and Fenwick for percentages of 53.5 and 55.9, respectively. Ah, but at 5-on-5 overall? The Caps trailed poorly – 44.4 percent and
45.8 percent. That’s why Florida could
wipe out two two-goal leads.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Reilly Smith
Who the $@#% is Reilly Smith, you ask? He is a 22-year old third round draft pick
from 2009 who happens to have 18 goals (tied for second on the team) and 43
points (one of four Bruins with 40 or more points), despite averaging fewer
than 15 minutes of ice time a game. He
does not have a goal in his last six games, though. What Reilly is not shy about is
shooting. He is third on the club in
shot frequency, averaging a one shot per eight minutes of ice time (minimum:
100 shots), trailing only Patrice Bergeron and Jarome Iginla. Smith has never faced the Caps.
Washington: Braden Holtby
If the Caps are to make a go of it in their last 22 games,
Holtby is going to have to ramp up his game.
All the Ryan Miller-to-Washington nonsense is in the rear-view mirror
(Miller having been traded to St. Louis yesterday), so Holtby does not have
that distraction. It is a chance for him
to shed this all-or-nothing trend in his game lately. Over his last 12 appearances he has allowed
four or more goals six times, but he also has two shutouts. Consistency is what is needed now. He is 3-0-0, 2.24, .930 in three career
appearances against Boston.
Keys:
1. Be Boring. The
Caps are not going to win a shootout (not the Gimmick kind of shootout). One team might score five goals in this game,
two won’t, and the one team more likely to do it – a lot more likely – is Boston. The Caps need this to be a low scoring game.
2. Stand up for
yourself. This does not mean dropping
the gloves, although Boston is not shy about that sort of thing. If the Caps get pushed around in their own
end, lose battles against the wall, get caught backing off too much, Boston
will roll over them like a rolling pin over biscuit dough.
3. Be special. Boston is not an especially noteworthy
penalty killing team. If the Caps are to
win, they need to capitalize on the power play chances they get to offset their
disadvantages at 5-on-5.
In the end…
This should be a comfortable Bruin win…on paper. Skates don’t work so well on paper, that’s
why they play on ice. The Caps have not
been intimidated by this team in recent games.
Witness their seven-game playoff win two years ago and their 2-1-0
record against them last season. The
Caps start crossing the 14-game mine field that could blow up their season this
afternoon. We’re thinking their first
steps will be safe ones.
Capitals 3 – Bruins 2
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