The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-Let’s get rrrrrrrready to
CRUMBL-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LE!!!
The Washington Capitals host the Vancouver Canucks on Friday
night at Verizon Center in a matchup of teams seeing their playoff chances
melting faster than an ice cube in Death Valley.
Take Vancouver, for instance. On December 29th, the Canucks were
23-11-6, their 52 standings points being sixth in the Western Conference, but
only five points behind the third-place St. Louis Blues. Since then, however, the Canucks are 7-17-4,
they have had four losing streaks of at least three games in length, they have
not won consecutive games since January 18/21 (against Calgary and Edmonton,
which should hardly count), and their 70 standings points are 10th
in the West, four points behind the Dallas Stars for a wild card berth, the
Stars holding three games in hand.
As for the Caps? On
December 20th they were a respectable 19-13-3, their 41 standings
points being fifth in the Eastern Conference but only four points behind third-place
Tampa Bay. Since then the Caps are
11-14-7, that record made faintly respectable by a four-game winning streak
wrapped around the February Olympic break.
The Caps have three losing streaks of at least three games over their
last 32 games, including a seven-game skid (0-5-2) in January that pushed them
from fifth in the East to 12th place in the conference. They have not recovered.
These are teams clearly in, if not transition, then in
search of some stability. And nowhere is
this more evident than in goal. In
Vancouver, goaltending has been an issue for quite some time. You could say it goes back to the Canucks’
Stanley Cup final season in 2010-2011 when Roberto Luongo took the lion’s share
of the work (60 appearances), but still had to endure the oft-stated opinion
that Cory Schneider (25 appearance that season) was going to be, if he was not
already, the best option in the Vancouver net.
It did not get better for Luongo when he dropped four of the last five
games in the Cup final, allowing 18 goals on 117 shots (.846 save percentage).
In 2011-2012 the two goalies divided the work more evenly,
Luongo getting 55 appearances, Schneider getting the call 33 times. It was Schneider that put up superior numbers
though, a better GAA (1.96 to 2.41) and a better save percentage (.937 to
.919). When Luongo lost Games 1 and 2 in
the first round of the playoffs to the Los Angeles Kings, Schneider was given
the task of repairing the damage. He
didn’t, although he played well, stopping 97 of 101 shots (.960 save
percentage) in Games 3-5, two of which he lost to close out the Canucks.
Then, in 2012-2013, Schneider became the number one
netminder, making 30 appearances to Luongo’s 20 as rumors and stories spread
about where Luongo would be traded.
Luongo stuck around, however, and even put up superior numbers splitting
time with Schneider in the first round of the playoffs against San Jose. Neither could prevent a San Jose Sharks sweep
in that series, though, so it was going to be another off-season of
pick-a-goalie.
Until draft day. On
June 30, 2013, it would be Cory Schneider who was traded. The New Jersey Devils sent their first round
draft pick to the Canucks for Schneider, essentially restoring Luongo to the
number one-spot in the Canucks net. And
so it was. Until it wasn’t. Luongo appeared in 42 games for the Canucks
this season until, at the trade deadline, he was sent to the Florida Panthers,
along with forward Steven Anthony, for goalie Jacob Markstrom and forward Shawn
Matthias.
Which brings us to Eddie Lack. Except for 19:48 of ice time (that being
Markstrom’s contribution to a 6-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on March 6th)
the net since the trading deadline has belonged to young Mr. Lack, an undrafted 26-year old rookie from Norrtälje,
Sweden. He has 30 appearances with the
Canucks this season, posting an 11-12-4 record with a 2.28 goals against
average and .918 save percentage with three shutouts. He is
tied for third in wins among rookie goaltenders (behind the 12 that Antti
Raanta has with Chicago and the 15 that Frederik Andersen has with Anaheim),
tied for second in GAA (with Andersen) among rookies making at least 15
appearances, and fifth in that group in save percentage.
Lack is not just a placeholder, although his numbers have
slipped of late. He has appeared in each
of the eight games for the Canucks since the Olympic break, posting a record of
3-4-1, 2.45, .906, with a shutout of St. Louis on February 26th. Lack has never faced the Caps.
The usual suspects have topped the offensive rankings for
the Canucks, the Brothers Sedin and Ryan Kesler. Henrik Sedin is 10-31-41, his brother Daniel
is 13-27-40, and Kesler is 22-18-40. On
the surface having three 40-point producers is a good thing (it’s one more than
the Caps have). However, Henrik Sedin
has missed eight games this season to bruised ribs and has only one point (a
goal against the New York Islanders on March 10th) over his last 14
games. Kesler is out for this game,
having been sent back to Vancouver for tests on an injured knee. On top of that, Daniel Sedin has a strained
hamstring and is on injured reserve.
On the back line the Canucks have enjoyed a measure of
production. Six defensemen have at
least ten points, eight have recorded goals (the Caps’ numbers here are four
and ten). Jason Garrison leads the
blueliners with seven goals, and folks know guys such as Kevin Bieksa and Dan
Hamhuis. But a word about a rookie –
Ryan Stanton. An undrafted native of St.
Albert, Alberta, Stanton saw one game’s worth of action with the Chicago
Blackhawks last season. The Blackhawks
placed Stanton on waivers in late September, and was claimed by the
Canucks. Fifty games later (he missed 15
games to an ankle injury and another for undisclosed reasons), he is 11th
among rookie defensemen in points and tied for ninth in assists, despite
missing those 16 games overall. He has
hit a rut, though, going without a point in his last seven games.
Here is how the teams’ numbers compare overall:
1. Vancouver does not
come by its recent hard times by way of luck.
Since January 27th they are 3-11-1 and have been outscored
over that span by a margin of 48-24 (not including shootout goals) and have scored
more than two goals in a game only twice, losing both contests, a 4-3 loss at Winnipeg
on January 31st and a 7-4 loss to the New York Islanders last
Monday.
2. Special teams have
been just as poor. In those same 14
games the Canucks are 7-for-45 on the power play (15.6 percent), while the
penalty killers are 40-for-52 (76.9 percent).
3. One thing in which
the Canucks do excel, they do not allow shorthanded goals. Only Nashville (0) and Colorado (1) have
allowed fewer shorthanded goals than the two allowed by Vancouver this season.
4. Only the New York
Islanders (6) have lost more games in regulation time when leading after two periods than has Vancouver
(5). Only Phoenix (11) has more losses
when scoring first than the Canucks (10).
5. In a case of
unexpected divergence, the Canucks are sinking like a stone in the standings,
but they remain a respectable possession team.
In five-on-five close score situations Vancouver is tenth in Corsi-for
percentage (51.7) and ninth in Fenwick-for percentage (52.0).
1. That four-game
winning streak wrapped around the Olympic break probably seems far away to Caps
fans these days. Since then they are 1-4-1, the only win being the product of a
five-minute burst in the third period in which they scored three goals to
overtake the Phoenix Coyotes, 3-2. In
their last five games they have held the lead for 5:06 out of 300 minutes
played, all of that coming in the win over Phoenix.
2. Over this 1-4-1 skid the Caps are led in scoring by Mike
Green (1-4-5). Jason Chimera also has
chipped in four assists. At the other
end of the spectrum, Alex Ovechkin does not have an even strength point (he had
a power play goal and a power play assist in the 6-4 loss to the Flyers on
March 5th). Only one of
Nicklas Backstrom’s points in these six games, out of his 1-3-4 total, came at even strength (an even strength assist
in the 6-4 loss to the Flyers). Dmitry
Orlov and Troy Brouwer lead the Caps in goals scored over this span with a pair
apiece.
3. The Caps have been
out-shot 44 times in 67 games. It is not
surprising, then, that only two teams have suffered more losses when being
out-shot (Buffalo, Edmonton) than the Caps, who have 20 such losses.
4. Things happen when
the Caps play four-on-four. Only six
teams have scored more times at four-on-four than the Caps (7), and only three
teams have allowed more goals (8).
5. The Caps recent
struggles are reflected in their possession numbers. In going 1-4-1 over their last six games they
have well-aligned, albeit poor numbers.
In 5-on-5 close score situations they have a Corsi-for percentage of
43.7, a Fenwick-for percentage of 43.6, and a shots for-against ratio of
43.8. Small wonder that they have been
outscored by a 6-5 margin in those situations, and four of the goals they
scored came in a 5-4 overtime loss to Philadelphia that started the skid.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Vancouver: Chris Higgins
Playing in 12 of 13 games spanning from January 18th
through February 28th, Chris Higgins was 4-5-9, a respectable
secondary scoring total. Trouble is, the
Canucks went 4-7-1 over those dozen games in which he played. Higgins is just 1-1-2
in March (both points coming in a 7-4 loss to the New York Islanders on
Monday). The Canucks are 2-4-0 in those
six games. This is what happens when
primary scoring is absent. Secondary
scoring does not matter. That is why the
Canuck have only a total of 33 goals over those 18 games (1.83 per game) in
which Higgins played, and the Canucks are 6-11-1 in those games. Getting secondary scoring from players like
Higgins can only help, but it is not sufficient to sustain a winning trend.
Washington: Jason Chimera
Speaking of secondary scorers, Jason Chimera is counted on
to chip in some of that. Unfortunately,
he is 0-5-5 in his last 11 games, misfiring on 24 shots on goal in that
span. In fact, after potting goals in
four consecutive games to end October and begin November, Chimera has a total
of seven goals in his last 54 games, an 11-goal pace over a full season. That said, he has been helpful. As in assists. He has already set a career high in assists
for a season (22), surpassing the 21 he had with Columbus in 2006-2007, and his
34 points is within shouting distance of his career high in points (39) set
with the Caps in 2011-2012. If the Caps
are going to make a run at the playoffs, it is likely to coincide with a
record-setting year for Chimera. He is
8-3-11 in 27 career games against the Canucks.
Keys:
1. First Five. When a team is down, keep them there. The best way to do that is start fast and
keep them from getting all fat and happy.
This seems to be a challenge for the Caps, who rank 20th in
first period goals scored this season.
2. No Holes. Vancouver has had trouble scoring goals. It is a problem made worse with one less
Sedin and no Ryan Kesler. Don’t make it easier
for them with giving up soft goals or letting them run free in your own
zone.
3. Kill, kill, kill. If you look at the rankings in the table
above, these are remarkably similar teams in terms of performance, with one
exception. The Caps have an awful
penalty kill at home, 26th in the league. That nonsense has to stop…now.
In the end…
In the 2014 portion of their respective seasons, the Caps
(10-12-5) and Vancouver (7-17-3) are a combined 17-29-8. That is a 64-point pace over a full
season. These teams are playing as if
they are jockeying for the first overall pick in the NHL entry draft this
summer. But there are the Canucks, just
four points out of a playoff spot, and there are the Caps, just three points
out. Both teams are hanging by a thread,
the Canucks playing in a tougher conference, the Caps with a difficult schedule
through the end of this month. Someone
has to win this game. It might not be
aesthetically pleasing to the hockey purist, but we have a feeling it will be
entertaining.
Capitals 5 – Canucks 4
No comments:
Post a Comment