“There are things known and there are things unknown, and in between are the doors of perception.”
-- Aldous Huxley
The second line center position for the Washington Capitals over the past half dozen years was like watching the television game show, “The Price Is Right.” The “audience” is all the possibilities to fill that open space among the four contestants. The “emcee,” George McPhee, would shout “come on down” with the next deal to try to fill the spot.
“Brendan Morrison… COME ON DOWN!!”
“Jason Arnott… COME ON DOWN!!!”
“Mike Ribeiro… COME ON DOWN!!!!”
And so it was on August 23, 2013, when the Capitals
announced, “Mikhail Grabovski… COME ON DOWN!”
Grabovski had been bought out of the last four years of a five-year,
$27.5 million deal with the Toronto Maple Leafs under odd circumstances, to say
the least, was signed by the Capitals to a one-year, $3 million deal to plug that pesky
hole in the middle of the second line.
It seemed a match made in, well, if not heaven, then in the
minds of Caps fans. Grabovski had been
banished to a checking line in Toronto on a team that ranked next to last in Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations, a season after Grabovski scored 23 goals in 74 games with the Leafs.
In Washington, the idea was that Grabovski would slide into
that second line center spot like a hand in a glove, centering Troy Brouwer on
the right and perhaps a Martin Erat or a Brooks Laich on the left to take some
of the heat off the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus
Johansson.
On Opening Night of the 2013-2014 season, the move looked
like a dream. Grabovski was in the
starting lineup centering Brouwer and Laich, and after the defending Stanley
Cup champions raised their banner and took a 2-1 lead into the first
intermission, Grabovski assisting on the Caps’ goal, he scored three goals over
a 15:46 period overlapping the second and third periods to give the Caps a 4-3
lead. But, as if a sign of what the
season would hold in store, the Caps could not hold the lead and lost to the
Blackhawks, 6-4.
For Grabovski, though, it was a good start and one that he
would sustain for almost half of the season.
Playing in the first 32 games of the season Grabovski went 9-18-27,
plus-6. The Caps went 17-12-3 and were second
in the Metropolitan Division standings, sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. All in all, things looked pretty good. Then Grabovski got the flu.
Grabovski missed two games with the illness, but it set in
motion what would be a disappointing last 50 games for him and for the
Caps. Grabovski played in only 26 of
those last 50 games, going just 4-4-8, even.
The Caps were just 9-10-7 in those last 26 games in which Grabovski
played, 12-8-4 in the 22 games that Grabovski did not play over that last
50-game run. The final tally for
Grabovski was 26-22-10 in the 58 games in which he played, 12-8-4 in the 24
games in which he was absent.
Fearless’ Take… So here is Grabovski, signed to address a
specific need, and what happens? He ends
up skating more than 200 minutes at 5-on-5 with five different forwards, none
of them for over 300 minutes.
But here is the thing. Let’s look at the
performance numbers with those five forwards.
In every single instance – with Troy Brouwer, Eric Fehr, Alex Ovechkin,
Jason Chimera, and Joel Ward – those five forwards had a goals-for percentage
greater that 50 percent. The Caps scored
more goals than they allowed when each of them skated with Grabovski. Every one of them had lower goals-for
percentages when playing apart from Grabovski, and three of them – Brouwer,
Fehr, and Ovechkin – had goals-for percentages under 50 percent. His underlying numbers were just as
good. Among forwards playing in at least
half the Caps’ games this season Grabovski had the best Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5, the only forward to finish over 50 percent (51.0). His PDO (the sum of shooting and save
percentages) of 102.5 at 5-on-5 was best of any skater on the team playing in
at least half of the games. This is what he was brought in to do.
Cheerless’ Take… Uh, cuz?
Not to get too out of joint about it, but the Caps averaged 1.07
standings points per game with Grabovski in the lineup, 1.17 without him. OK, he probably never recovered completely
from that ankle injury he suffered against New Jersey on January 24th
– he played only nine games after that – but are we sure about what we have
here as far as a difference maker goes?
Odd Grabovski Fact… Mikhail Grabovski is the first player in
Capitals franchise history to record a hat trick in his first game with the
club and in a season opener, accomplishing the feat in the 2013-2014 season
opener in Chicago. As if to complete a
“hat trick hat trick” of firsts, it was Grabovski’s first career hat trick.
Game to Remember… November 1st versus
Philadelphia. OK, obviously there is the
season opener in Chicago, but let’s look at another game. A game that ended a lot better for the
Caps. On November 1st the
Caps would introduce Grabovski to the renewed I-95 rivalry with the
Philadelphia Flyers. Grabovski put his
own stamp on the rivalry in the second period when, with the Caps holding a 1-0
lead, he drove to the net as Joel Ward was maneuvering the puck out from behind
the Flyer net. Defenseman Mark Streit
swept the puck off Ward’s stick, but Grabovski was there to keep Streit from
moving it out of the crease. It was
enough to allow Ward another attempt, and he made good on that one, to give the
Caps a 2-0 lead.
Just 80 seconds later Grabovski had another helper, this one
on a goal by Jason Chimera after Grabovski stifled a pass from Vincent
Lecavalier to Erik Gustafsson at the Caps’ blue line. Grabovski’s effort allowed Chimera to break
clean with the puck between the Flyers defense and snap a forehand past goalie
Steve Mason for a 3-0 lead. Grabovski
and Ward teamed up again after a Nicklas Backstrom goal made it 4-0. It was a nifty passing sequence, Jason
Chimera digging the puck out from the left wing wall and feeding
Grabovski. From the left wing circle
Grabovski backhanded the puck to Ward, and Ward snapped a shot off the far post
to make it 5-0, Caps, in a game Washington went on to win, 7-0. It was Grabovski’s only three-assist game of
the season.
Game to Forget… February 27th versus
Florida. By the time the Capitals
returned from the Winter Olympics break, Mikhail Grabovski had been off the ice
for 34 days since suffering an ankle injury against the New Jersey Devils on
January 24th. Having been out
of action for almost five weeks, the hope was that Grabovski could pick up where he left off for
the stretch run having missed only eight games in that span. Nice thought.
It lasted all of 13 minutes. That
is how long Grabovski lasted in the first period, having skated only four shifts
and 2:20 in ice time before retiring for the evening. The Caps beat the Panthers on that night,
5-4, but Grabovski would miss the next 14 games. The Caps went 6-5-3 in that span and failed to make up any
ground in their push for a playoff spot.
In the end…
Just what did the Caps have here? When he was in the lineup, Mikhail Grabovski
made those with whom he played better.
His possession numbers were very good, especially when compared with how
the team struggled overall in their possession numbers. He did this despite having a rather rich
variety of linemates and playing on the wing (not center) as the season wound
down. On the other hand, the Caps’
record was not appreciably different with him in the lineup than when he was
not.
This leaves us with perhaps the biggest personnel question
not involving an individual who wears a suit.
Will the Capitals re-sign Mikhail Grabovski? All things considered, this should be a
no-brainer. There is no obvious
candidate, either in the system or through free agency, that could reproduce
Grabovski’s production (Paul Stastny fans, please note, Grabovski’s possession numbers were comparable at 5-on-5).
It will be the suspense surrounding Grabovski that helps keeps Caps fans engaged over
the summer. But while we are waiting to
see if the price is right for 2014-2015, for the 2013-2014 season Grabovski
seemed to be what the Caps needed to fill a persistent need.
Grade: B+
Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America
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