“Your big opportunity may be right where you are now.”
-- Napoleon Hill
Marcus Johansson was drafted by the Washington Capitals in 2009 as a center. It was that position which he played in his early career with the club. He was not, it seemed, the answer to a perennial problem – who would be the team’s second line center – and he was moved to left wing on a line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom.
The move was not without its painful moments. Johansson suffered a concussion in a
collision with Ovechkin in a 2012 training camp session, an injury that would
eventually cost Johansson 12 games in the regular season. Since returning to the lineup after that
concussion Johansson is 13-52-65 in 106 games over two seasons, a 10-40-50 scoring pace per 82
games, almost exclusively as a left winger.
That might make for an argument to keep Johansson at left
wing, but the roster is in flux with a new head coach – Barry Trotz – calling the
shots. Ovechkin might be returned to the
left side on the top line. That move
would ripple through the rest of the lineup with more options facing Johansson
than perhaps any other player. Johansson
could be moved to the left side of the second line. He could play in the middle of the second
line, depending on how the Evgeny Kuznetsov experiment at center works. He could be dropped to the middle of the third
line where he would assume the duties previously fulfilled by Eric Fehr, a
natural right winger. And, if Trotz’ intention
that Ovechkin develops to play both sides plays out,
Johansson could find himself back on the left side of the top.
Fearless’ Take…
Marcus Johansson is one of five players in his 2010 rookie
class with at least 40 career goals, at least 90 career assists, and at least
130 career points (Derek Stepan, Tyler Seguin, Jordan Eberle, and Taylor Hall
are the others). Last season he was
5-27-32 in 37 wins, recording points in 23 of those wins. As impressive as, say, Nicklas Backstrom
(14-45-59 in 38 wins, points in 32 of them)?
No, but it isn’t a points pace far off a pace of a Daniel Sedin (13-18-31
in 32 wins).
Then there are the penalties. The seemingly utter lack of them. Over the last four seasons, among all skaters
playing in at least 175 games, no player has logged fewer penalty minutes than
Johansson (26). Last season Johansson
was sent off twice for minor penalties.
Not twice in one game, twice all season.
Two minors (high-sticking and hooking, for the record), that’s it. Little wonder he finished sixth in the voting
for the Lady Byng Trophy (including a first place vote) for gentlemanly play.
Cheerless’ Take…
Two-point-five percent?
I ain’t no math whiz, but I know that’s not a big number. And that was Johansson’s shooting percentage
at even strength last season. Two goals
on 80 shots. Neither was in a regulation
win (one Gimmick win, against Minnesota on November 7th, one
overtime loss; against Philadelphia on March 2nd). His overall shooting percentage for the
season (7.5 percent) was barely half of that over his first three seasons (14.2
percent). His plus-minus on-ice per 60
minutes was second worst among Capital forwards playing in at least 20 games
(-0.89). Only Alex Ovechkin was worse
(-1.45). It was part of a whole first
line meltdown. Nicklas Backstrom was
third worst (-0.86). It was a team
effort.
The Big Question… Will Marcus Johansson take the next step
in his development?
Last year we asked this question in a slightly different way…
“Can Johansson develop as a threat on his own on the left side to take some
pressure off his linemates?” Five goals,
a 7.5 percent shooting percentage, 2.5 percent at even strength, a
minus-21. He didn’t answer that question
in a way in which Caps fans might have hoped.
Johansson will start this season with more than 250 games of regular
season under his belt (263 to be precise).
His apprenticeship is coming to an end.
He needs to be less of a passenger on a scoring line and more a player
who can drive or create play on his own.
The uncertainty over just where Johansson will play muddies
this issue somewhat. That he can play a
number of positions means that he might be called upon to play those
positions. If Barry Trotz moves Alex
Ovechkin from wing to wing, that means another player (or more) moves, and
Johansson might be just that player (although Brooks Laich also might fall into
this category).
Johansson has demonstrated he can be a 50-point player (his
points pace over his last 100-plus games).
Can he now: a) do it without the benefit of skating on a line with
Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, and b) do it consistently? That would be the next step in his
development.
In the end…
What is the Swedish word for “enigma?” Maybe “mystery” is a
better word. Despite those 263 games of
regular season experience and the fact that he ranks so highly among his draft
and rookie classes in career points, it is still hard to get a clear picture of
just how much of his performance is due to talent and development, and how much
is due to circumstance (playing with highly skilled linemates).
In 2014-2015 Johansson seems likely to come out from under
that Backstrom-Ovechkin shield. He might
be asked to be the driver of a line (second or third line center). It would be early to dismiss the likelihood
that he can succeed in that role, given that his is more or less two seasons
removed (and almost 120 games) removed from playing center on a consistent
basis.
A lot of things have to go right for a hockey team to
succeed, some of them within its power to control, others not so much. With respect to Johansson there are two parts
to this issue. There is the matter of
where head coach Barry Trotz chooses to deploy him. That is not a matter under the player’s
control. Then there is the matter of
taking advantage of the opportunity, no matter where he is deployed. That is something over which Johansson can
exert more control. With four seasons
and 250-plus games of experience, he has to take the training wheels off. He has to be a contributing member of this
squad on his own terms. His big
opportunity is where he is right now. We just don’t quite
know where he is right now on the ice yet.
Projection: 81 games, 15-33-48, plus-4
Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America
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