Record: 2-1-1
It was a return to a winning week for the Caps after two
weeks in which they failed to get more than 50 percent of the available
standings points. It might have been
modest progress, but the 2-1-1 week did enable the Caps to jump from sixth in
the Metropolitan Division at the start of the week to fourth by week’s end, and
from 13th in the Eastern Conference to tenth. Folks might remember Elliotte Friedman writing that teams more than four points out of a playoff spot on November 1st
rarely reach the post season in the “loser point” era of the NHL (i.e., the
Gimmick point).
The Caps ended last week (November 1st) two points out of a playoff
spot; they ended this week one point out of the top eight.
Offense: 3.75/game (season: 3.14/game; rank: 4th)
“In this league, if you get to three, you should win the
hockey game. That’s what good teams do.”
That’s what head coach Barry Trotz said after the Caps lost the Arizona
Coyotes after a 6-5 loss last Sunday to open Week 5. The Caps got to three in each of the week’s
four games, so by that standard it was a good week (two wins in doing so is
another matter). It was a balanced
week. Ten different Caps shared in the
15 goals scored; 15 different skaters recorded points. Joel Ward led the goal-scorers with
three. Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer,
and Marcus Johansson each had a pair.
Alex Ovechkin had six assists to reach the 400 assist mark in his
career. One of them, in the 4-3 overtime
loss to Calgary, gave Ovechkin the franchise record for career points,
surpassing the 825 recorded by Peter Bondra.
Defense: 3.75/game (season: 2.86/game; rank: 18th)
The Caps were a bit leakier than usual in allowing shots in
Week 5. Twice in four games they allowed
30 or more shots, including a season high 40 shots in the 3-2 win in Chicago
over the Blackhawks. Still, the Caps
remain second in the league in shots allowed per game (26.4), behind only the
Minnesota Wild (23.0). The game against
Chicago by itself put the Caps in minus Corsi territory for the week (minus-10;
Corsi-for percentage: 48.64 percent).
The possession week was an odd one in another respect, specifically with
respect to one player: Marcus Johansson.
For the week, Johansson was Corsi plus-9 at 5-on-5. The way he got there was the thing, though. Plus-13 against Arizona, even against
Calgary, minus-14 against Chicago, and plus-10 against Carolina. An example of the perils of looking at
possession numbers on an individual game basis.
Goaltending: 3.65 GAA / .875 SV (season: 2.73 GAA / .894 SV
/ 1 SO)
Each goalie got two games of work in Week 5, the product of
back-to-back weekends with back-to-back games.
Justin Peters started and ended the week, earning a loss and a win,
respectively. Overall it was a rough
week as far as his raw numbers were concerned.
A .842 save percentage, a 4.41 goals against average, and he allowed at
least one goal in five of six regulation periods. He allowed five goals on 20 third period shots
(.750 save percentage).
Braden Holtby’s week was just plain strange. He allowed four goals on 23 shots in the 4-3
overtime loss to Calgary on Tuesday, his ninth straight appearance facing fewer
than 30 shots (including only seven shots when he was relieved against San Jose
on October 14th). He was
3-3-2, 2.66, .891 over those games. Then
he faced 40 shots against Chicago, stopping 38 of them in a 3-2 win. It was the 10th time in 115
appearances in which Holtby faced 40 or more shots. He is 6-4-0, 2.82, .936 in those games. He is 58-30-10, 2.58, but with just a .915
save percentage in career games in which he does not face 40 shots.
Power Play: 4-10/40.0 percent (season: 28.9 percent; rank: 2nd)
Starting in Week 1 with going 2-for-9 (22.2 percent) on the
power play, the Caps bettered their season power play efficiency rate in three
of the following four weeks. They did so
in Week 5 on a 4-for-10 effort. The
power play was both effective (four goals in four games, scoring goals in three
games for the week) and efficient (40 percent conversion, 16 shots in 15:21 of
power play time). It was the forwards’
show in goal scoring. Joel Ward had a
pair of power play goals, and Alex Ovechkin and Troy Brouwer had one
apiece. In scoring power play goals in
three of the week’s four games, the Caps have now scored power play goals in 10
of 14 games this season. They are 4-4-2
in those games. If there was a smudge on
the week it was in opportunities. In no game did the Caps have more than three
power play opportunities, and they had only one against Chicago. This continues a trend that started shortly
after the start of the season. In their
first four games the Caps had 18 power play opportunities (4.5 per game) and
were 2-0-2. In 10 games since they had
27 opportunities (2.7 per game) with a record of 4-5-1.
Penalty Killing: 8-12/66.7 percent (season: 77.1 percent;
rank: 23rd)
While the power play has been showing more or less constant
improvement over the first five weeks of the season, there is no “more or less”
about the deterioration of the Caps’ penalty kill. It would be hard to keep their 9-for-9 from
Week 1 going for extended periods, but the season efficiency rate has dropped
in every week since, to a current 77.1 percent penalty kill rate. Giving up four goals on 12 shorthanded
situations meant that special teams did no more than break even for the week. As has been the case in many instances overall
this season, it was a case of playing better than the results. The Caps allowed only 11 shots on goal in
18:54 of shorthanded ice time, they kind of shots per minute you would like to
see. Seven saves on those 11 shots is
another matter. It is recent history of
poor save percentages when shorthanded.
Here is how bad. Caps goaltenders
were 11-for-11 on shorthanded shots in their first two games. Since then they are 35-for-45, a save
percentage of .783. Of 44 goalies
appearing in at least five games so far, Braden Holtby ranks 22nd in
shorthanded save percentage (.868), while Justin Peters ranks 43rd
(.722).
Even Strength Goals For/Goals Against: 11-11 / even (season,
5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio:1.07; rank: T-14th)
It was a decent week in terms of plus-minus, especially if
you think finishes (plus-3 in the last two games) are better than starts
(minus-3 in the first two games). But
again, there were save percentage issues.
Holtby and Peters stopped 97 of 108 even strength shots for the week
(.898 save percentage). Neither Holtby
(.904; 37th) nor Peters (.907; 35th) are acquitting
themselves very well in the group of 44 goalies with at least five appearances.
The Caps spread the even strength scoring around fairly
well. Marcus Johansson and Nicklas
Backstrom each had a pair of goals at even strength. Seven other players
pitched in an even strength goal. It did
not help keep the Caps from slipping a bit in their ratio of goals for to goals
against at 5-on-5, though. And the
bottom line here for the week is that the Caps won the two games in which they
won the even strength goal battle; they lost the two games in which they did
not win that battle.
Faceoffs: 130-for-260
/ 50.0 percent (season: 49.5 percent; rank: T-16th)
A 50 percent week on draws was misleading at the
game-to-game level. Twice the Caps
finished above 55 percent, twice they finished below 45 percent. Not that it mattered a great deal; the Caps
were 1-1 in games they won the faceoff battle, 1-0-1 in games they did
not. Those results matched the zone
results, to a point. The Caps won the
neutral zone in each of the four games (53.0 percent overall), but they
alternated games won and games lost in the offensive (48.8 percent overall) and
defensive zones (48.4 percent overall) for the week.
Nicklas Backstrom continues to take the lion’s share of the
draws (36.9 percent of all draws for the week), and he had a very good week
(53.1 percent overall; over 50 percent in both the offensive and defensive
ends). He is now up to 25th
overall in faceoff winning percentage (54.4 percent).
Evgeny Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky continue to be works
in progress. Kuznetsov was 11-for-26 for
the week (43.3 percent); Burakovsky was 9-for-29 (31.0 percent).
Goals by Period:
What stands out for the Caps, and not in a good way, is the
third period…again. Outscored by a 6-2
margin in the third period in four games this week, the Caps have allowed 11
third period goals in their last seven games.
They allowed third period goals in six of those games and had a record
of 1-5-1 in them, the only win coming against Carolina in the last game of Week
5. The save percentage thing rears its
head here, too. Holtby and Peters stopped
32 of 38 shots in the third periods of four games this week, a save percentage
of .842. Peters was the victim (or
culprit, depending on your point of view) here, stopping only 15 of 20 shots
(.750).
In the end…
The Caps stopped the bleeding after suffering two straight
weeks without a winning record (by standings points). The odd part of it was that they played, as
they have for much of the season, contrary to what the possession statistics
should predict. When playing well in a
possession sense, they have not been (and were not this week) rewarded. When losing the possession battle, especially
against Chicago, they won on the scoreboard.
The underlying numbers might have been decent overall, skewed as they
were by the Chicago game, but they were undermined to an extent by
goaltending. Whether that was a product
of poor goaltending on its own terms or inadequate support in front, the fact
remains that the save percentages for both Holtby and Peters are going to have
to improve, or the fancy fancystats will not matter very much.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Alex Ovechkin (1-6-7, even; set franchise record for points, recorded 400th assist, recorded 18th game in career history with four or more points (vs. Arizona))
- Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-4-6, game-winning goal against Carolina, recorded 137th and 138th career multi-point games)
- Third Star: John Carlson (1-3-4, plus-3, is now tied for fifth among NHL defensemen in scoring)
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