For the Washington Capitals, Week 15 was one of the good and the bad. Well, more like the good, then the bad. It was a week of endings and beginnings. And here is how it unfolded.
Record: 2-2-0
For the first time since Week 8, the Capitals did not have a
winning week. They did not have a losing
week, either, so their record of nine straight non-losing weeks remains intact;
the Caps have had only two losing weeks this season (Weeks 4 and 6). The week was split into parts, the first of
which featured a pair of wins to give the Caps a 14-1-4 record over 19 games
dating back to a 2-1 win At Carolina on December 4th. The long run enabled the Caps to go from
10-10-4, in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division and 11th place
in the Eastern Conference, 13 points out of the top spot, to 24-11-8, third
place in the division and fifth in the conference, only three points out of the
top spot.
The happy times came to an end in Nashville, where coach
Barry Trotz’ return to where he coached for 15 seasons was spoiled by the
Predators, 4-3. The Caps then lost their
second game in regulation for the first time in more than six weeks, dropping a
5-4 decision to the Dallas Stars, dropping the Caps five points behind the New
York Islanders for first place in the Metropolitan Division and six behind the
Tampa Bay Lightning for the top spot in the Eastern Conference.
As it is, the Caps finished Week 15 with 24 wins through 45
games. Last season they did not win
their 24th game until Game 53 of the season.
Offense: 2.50/game (season: 2.93/game; rank: 10th)
It was a strange week on both sides of the puck, but since
this is the section on offense we will deal with that first. The Caps scored a total of three goals in the
first two games of the week and won, while they scored seven goals combined in
the last two games of the week and lost.
As it was, seven Caps shared the ten goals scored. By itself, this is not a bad result, even if
the total was below the Caps’ per-game average for the season. The problem was balance. Alex Ovechkin had four of the ten goals,
while six Caps registered a goal apiece.
None of the goals came from defensemen, although they did
combine for seven assists; Matt Niskanen, Mike Green, and Karl Alzner with a
pair apiece. Carlson and Green are
interesting studies after Week 15. The
former, with his one assist in four games, finished the week tied for fourth
among defensemen in total points (32, with Philadelphia’s Mark Streit). Carlson’s plus-14 rating ranked him tied for
seventh among defensemen in that statistic.
On the other hand, Green is in a terrible shooting
slump. Having started the season with
three goals in his first five games on 12 shots on goal, Green has one goal in
his last 32 games on a total of 69 shots, a 1.4 percent shooting percentage.
Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.49/game; rank: 10th)
On average, it was an average week in terms of scoring
defense. It was how the Caps got there
that was something other than average.
It was not the shots on goal, at least on a total shots basis. The Caps allowed a total of 53 shots on goal
in the two wins to start the week (allowing only one goal), and they allowed 56
shots in the last two games of the week (allowing nine goals).
It wasn’t the possession number, at least overall at
5-on-5. In the first two games of the
week the Caps had a combined 5-on-5 Corsi-for percentage of 57.2. It was actually better in second half of the
week, 58.5 percent in the two losses.
OK, so then how did possession number behave in close score
situations? They behaved the same way,
only more pronounced. In the first two
games of the week the Caps has a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 percentage of 62.3 in
tie-game situations; in the last two games of the week it was 75.0 (all numbers from war-on-ice.com). If you are looking for problems in the Caps
as the week ended, one might have to look elsewhere than defense, at least
systemic defense, at even strength.
Goaltending: 2.53, .908, one shutout (season: 2.44 / .914 /
4 shutouts)
The week started spectacularly for the Caps and Braden
Holtby in goal. Against Colorado and
Philadelphia to open the week, Holtby allowed one goal on 53 shots, a .981 save
percentage, including a shutout of the Flyers, his fourth shutout of the season. Against Nashville in the third game of the
week, Holtby was not as sharp. He was
beaten on a goal from long range that he got a piece of on its way through, and
he was beaten on a one-timer for Nashville’s third goal, a shot he had been
gobbling up in his long run of success (or maybe we had all been spoiled by
Holtby’s persistent ability to smother difficult shots).
For the last game of the week, Justin Peters
began the 2015 portion of his season, hoping that it would be better than the 2014 portion. He saw his first action in goal since he played the first and third periods of a 6-2
loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 29th. It did not go well. Not that it was all Peters’ problem. The Caps fell behind the Dallas Stars, 3-0,
before the game was 25 minutes old, getting behind the eight ball early when
the Stars scored a power play goal in the third minute. There were too many instances of the Caps
giving up advantages in numbers – 2-on-1 or 3-on-2 – deep in their own zone
that made life difficult for Peters and the Caps. However, there were not very many
momentum-changing saves, either. When it
was over, Peters’ record in his last five appearances was 1-3-0 (one
no-decision), a 4.48 goals-against average, and a .836 save percentage. The Caps are going to need better numbers than
that from their backup going forward.
Power Play: 3-for-11 / 27.3 percent (season: 24.1 percent;
rank: 4th)
It is testimony to just how efficient the Caps’ power play has
been this season that the team could be tied for the fifth highest number of
power play goals in the league this season (32) while having the eighth fewest
number of power play opportunities (133).
Week 15 was no different. The
Caps had just 11 power play chances in four games, not far off their chances
per game rate for the season.
They did have a good week on the man-advantage, posting
their second straight week over 20 percent.
It was the first time that the Caps posted consecutive weeks over 20
percent on the power play since Weeks 2 and 3, part of a three week opening to
the season over 20 percent.
The Caps were an efficient group on the power play,
converting three of 18 shots on goal in 14:25 of power play ice time. The balance, or lack of it, was not
unexpected. Alex Ovechkin scored two of
the three power play goals on four shots; the rest of the team had one goal (Marcus
Johansson) on 14 shots.
However, the power play did have a bizarre aspect to
it. The Caps scored two power play goals
against Nashville in a 4-3 loss. It was
the fifth time this season that Washington recorded two power play goals in a
game. Their record in such games is
1-2-2, and they have lost four in a row since they scored two power play goals
in a 4-0 win over Boston in Game 2 of the season.
Penalty Killing: 11-for-14 / 78.6 percent / (season: 79.3 percent;
rank: T-21st)
At this point in the season, the penalty killers are who
they are. That is not a compliment to
this team. For the eighth straight week
the Caps finished the week with a season penalty killing rate under 80
percent. They have been alternating over
the last five weeks penalty killing rates under and over 80 percent. In Week 15 they were under, killing 11 of 14
shorthanded situations (78.6 percent). It
was a typically “meh” week. The Caps
allowed opponents 26 power play shots on goal in 21:26 of power play time.
It is hard what to make of the Caps penalty kill. On the one hand they have allowed just 216 shots
on goal in 246:27 of total shorthanded ice time. On the other, they have allowed 30 goals on
those 216 shots, a .861 save percentage.
Either the Caps are allowing too many quality scoring chances on the
opponents’ man advantage, or they are going to have get better netminding when
shorthanded.
Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 7-7 / even (season,
5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.10; rank: 12th)
The Caps won the even strength goal differential in the first
half of the week, 2-0, and won both games.
They lost the second half of the week, 5-7, and lost both games. That’s a bit simplistic, but even strength is
where it is at in terms of success, and the Caps’ success was mixed (or more
precisely, split) in Week 15.
The Caps out-shot their opponents by a 108-80 margin for the
week and won each game in the even strength shot battle. In that sense, it seems a little odd that the
Caps only split the week in wins and losses.
It wasn’t even as if the Caps were getting swamped early in the games
they lost so as to create score effects later.
They held Nashville even in even strength shots in the first period of
their game (eight shots apiece), and they outshot Dallas, 7-5, at even strength
in their 5-4 loss to the Stars. It was something
of an odd week at even strength.
Faceoffs: 161-263 / 61.2 percent (season: 51.3 percent;
rank: 10th)
It was a good week in the circle for the Caps. They won all four games and won all three
zones for Week 15. They were even better
in the ends of the ice than their 61.2 percent mark for the week would
suggest. Washington was 59-for-92 in
offensive zone draws (64.1 percent) and 56-for-88 in defensive zone draws (63.6
percent). None of the six Caps taking
more than ten draws for the week finished under 50 percent, and three of those
Caps finished over 65 percent – Troy Brouwer (80.0 percent on 20 draws), Eric
Fehr (72.5 percent on 40 faceoffs), and Jay Beagle (66.0 percent on 53
draws). Fehr’s week was marked by a
15-for-16 effort against Dallas.
Goals by Period:
Ten goals for, ten goals against. The Caps lost the first and third periods of
the week, won the second. That is more a
reflection of how the week ended than how it began, the Caps falling into
multi-goal deficits against Nashville and Dallas, tying the game, then
faltering late. It was a bit odd for the
Caps to allow four third period goals.
Coming into the week they has allowed only 33 third period scores all
season (0.80/game). As it is, they still
have allowed the tenth-fewest number of third period goals in the league
(37). For the moment, that suggests that
Week 15 was a bit of an anomaly in the Caps’ period-by-period defense.
In the end…
Teams aren’t going to win 32 of every 38 available standings
points forever, and that streak came to an end for the Caps this week. As it was, the Caps ended up playing four
one-goal games (eight of the Caps' last ten decisions have been by one goal, a 4-2-2 record). For the glass half-full
sort of mindset, one could say that the Caps were a couple of third period let
downs away from a 4-0 week. From the
glass half-empty perspective, the cracks around the edges of their game finally
gave way at the end of the week, one that might have been an 0-4 week but for
some great goaltending by Braden Holtby.
The Caps have one more job before taking a week off for the
All-Star break, and that is to beat Edmonton on Tuesday night at home. That should be a pretty good indicator of
whether the Caps suffered a bump in the road in Week 15, or if they are in a
slump. In that sense, Week 15 had a “what
might have been” aspect to it, but it also leaves fans with a “what’s next”
side to it as well.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Alex Ovechkin (4-1-5, plus-2, one game-winning goal, two game-tying goals, 19 shots on goal)
- Second Star: Braden Holtby (2-1-0, 1.68, .940, one shutout)
- Third Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-4-5, 53.4 percent faceoffs, six blocked shots)
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