“Always do whatever's next.”
-- George Carlin
John Carlson has played five full seasons in the National Hockey League, and his progress has trended upward through each of those five seasons. His goals per game has improved from 0.09 per game to 0.15, assists from 0.37 to 0.52, points from 0.45 to 0.67, shots on goal from 1.76 to 2.35. He is one of only seven skaters to have played in every game over those five seasons and one of only three defensemen to do so (Keith Yandle and teammate Karl Alzner being the others).
There is also a certain balance to his game evidenced in
those five seasons. Using
Hockey-Reference.com’s point share estimates over the last five seasons (the
points contributed by a player from his offense and defense), Carlson is 14th
among defensemen in offensive point share contributions, 16th in
defensive point share contributions, and 12th overall (minimum: 200 games played).
In 2014-2015, Carlson finished in the top dozen among
defensemen in goals (11 – tied for 1th), assists (43 – tied for 5th),
points (55 – tied for fifth), even strength assists (30 – second), even
strength points (38 – second), and blocked shots (200 – third). He was barely outside the top dozen in
shorthanded ice time per game (2:57 – tied for 15th) and takeaways
(41 – tied for 17th). Again -- balance.
He was one of only four defensemen in the league whose offensive and
defensive point share contributions were 4.8 or better (minimum: 40 games).
There might be a subset of all of these numbers that bears
watching as the Caps move forward. Over the
last five seasons, Carlson’s power play points have improved from 2.1 points
per 60 minutes in 2010-2011 to 6.8 points per game this season. This year’s number led the formidable
Capitals power play, part of a three-headed monster from the blue line in that
regard (Matt Niskanen averaged 6.8 points per 60 minutes, and Mike Green
averaged 5.20 points per 60 minutes; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
Carlson’s ten-game segments reflect a measure of consistency
on the offensive end. Only once did he
fail to score a goal in any ten-game segment; only once did he record more than
two goals. Similarly, he did not finish
any ten-game segment with fewer than five points, and only once did he have
more than eight. Digging underneat those
numbers, Carlson feel into a ditch in his Corsi plus-minus (minus-75 in the
fourth segment, minus-126 overall) and scoring chance plus-minus (minus-47 in
the fourth segment, minus-35 overall) by the fourth ten-game segment of the
season. But over the last half of the
season he slowly dragged himself out of that hole, or at least where he could
see daylight (minus-17 Corsi +/- and minus-31 in scoring chances, but
improvement in each ten-game segment).
The odd part in those ten-game segments, though, was Carlson’s goal
differential – plus-3 over the first four ten-game segments, minus-3 over the
last four segments.
Fearless’ Take: Carlson’s year-to-year improvement in his
offensive numbers is substantial. Goals
up from 10 to 12, assists up from 27 to 43, points up from 37 to 55, plus-minus
from minus-3 to plus-11. He has quietly
become one of the most productive offensive defensemen in the game. Over the last two seasons, Carlson is one of
five defensemen to have recorded 20 or more total goals and 70 or more total assists. The others read like an all-star team top
four: Erik Karlsson, P.K. Subban, Victor Hedman, and Mark Giordano.
Cheerless’ Take: John
Carlson can scare up some pretty nice efforts against elite players, but
sometimes he ends up being victimized by middle-of-the-pack players or the odd
lost second or two of focus. Carlson
skated more than 35 minutes at even strength against Sidney Crosby this past season,
and Crosby did not have a goal. Claude
Giroux scored just one in 39:52 in 5-on-5 ice time against Carlson. On the other hand, there are players like
Andrej Nestratil (two goals in 20 minutes at 5-on-5 against Carlson) and Anders
Lee (two goals in 23:04; numbers from http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com). It seems that
one part of Carlson’s game he has not yet been entirely able to shake is being
around for a goal that probably should not have been scored.
Odd Carlson Fact: Six times this season John Carlson
recorded at least five shots on goal in a game.
Number of goals scored on those 34 shots: zero.
Game to Remember: March 15th against Boston. The Capitals went into their game against the
Bruins on March 15th trying to nip a slump in the bud. They had lost three of their last four games,
the last of which was a lackluster 4-2 loss to Dallas at home. The Caps had a healthy lead in the race for a
playoff spot, but it shrunk from 11 to six points over the ninth-place team that
1-3-0 skid. They needed a jolt, and
Carlson provided it against the Bruins.
On a Capitals power play early in the context, he started the scoring
sequence with a feed to Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer that went off the side of
the cage. The puck was turned aside by
goalie Tuukka Rask, but it was tracked down by Troy Brouwer behind the
net. He fed the puck around the wall to
Nicklas Backstrom who hit “reset” and fed Carlson. Instead of sending the puck to Ovechkin
again, Carlson fired and beat Rask to give the Caps a 1-0 lead in a game they
would win, 2-0, to take over the first playoff wild card spot. It was one of two game-winning goals that
Carlson would have against Boston this season.
Game to Forget: October 14th versus San
Jose. You have two assists in a game and
still go minus-4? Well, it happened to
John Carlson on this night against the San Jose Sharks. Before the game was ten minutes old, the
Sharks had a 3-0 lead, and Carlson was on the ice for all three goals scored by
the visitors. By the time the game was
into the second minute of the third period, Carlson had been on ice for all
five goals scored by the Sharks. Nevertheless, the Capitals came from behind by
two goals to tie the game late in the third period but lost in a Gimmick,
6-5. It would be Carlson’s worst
plus-minus game of the season.
Postseason: 1-5-6, plus-3, 1 PPG
One of the hallmarks of the Capitals’ season was the
contributions on offense by defensemen.
John Carlson was the biggest part of that. And when the offense from the blue line dried
up, especially in the second round series against the Rangers (no goals and
three assists from six defensemen in seven games), the Capitals’ chances to
advance were diminished. And Carlson was
a big part of that, too. He took an
o-fer on 22 shots in those seven games against the Rangers and had one goal on
41 shots for the postseason overall. He
was on-ice for 11 of the 28 goals scored against the Caps in the post season, a
number that puts him in the top twenty of defensemen in goals scored against/on
ice. While that is not necessarily a
rank one would want attached to their name, it is fewer than the goals against
scored while on ice for such as P.K. Subban, Duncan Keith, and Ryan Suter. The Capitals – and Carlson – were very stingy
on defense. The Capitals – and Carlson –
found points hard to come by. It made
for a lot of one-goal decisions; too many, as it turned out, for the Caps.
In the end…
John Carlson has, without much fanfare, become one of the
best offensive defensemen in the NHL, which is a nice development, especially
with the uncertain return of Mike Green next season. However, there might be limits to that in its
effect on games. Carlson set a personal
best by recording a point in 40 of the Capitals’ 82 games this season. It eclipsed his 31 games with points set last
season. The Caps were 23-12-5 in games
in which he recorded a point, 22-14-6 in games in which he did not. Look like a significant difference? It doesn’t to us, either.
Nevertheless, Carlson has become a cornerstone of the Caps’
blue line and the team in general. His
development has been a steady, unbroken arc since he was drafted 27th
overall in 2008 by the Capitals. He is
one of an impressive cohort of NHL defensemen in their mid-20s who could
dominate the league for years to come.
That arc might have to continue climbing upward for the Caps and Carlson
to be successful. Should Mike Green
depart in free agency, he will become the go-to offensive contributor from the
blue line, even with Matt Niskanen in the lineup. And, his use in all situations (he led the
team in shorthanded ice time per game, for example) suggests that he will be
the unquestioned number one defenseman for the Caps. The roles expand and become more complex for
Carlson, but it is what comes next after a very good season.
Grade: B+
Jared Wickerham/Getty Images North America
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