The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals come roaring back home on Wednesday night to face the Ottawa Senators at Verizon Center. The Capitals, who wrapped up a 2-1-0 road trip with a 4-1 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night, will meet the Senators with a 9-1-1 record in their last 11 games. It is good enough to lift the Caps into the top spot in the Eastern Conference, pending the result of the Montreal Canadiens contest with the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night.
The Washington Capitals come roaring back home on Wednesday night to face the Ottawa Senators at Verizon Center. The Capitals, who wrapped up a 2-1-0 road trip with a 4-1 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Monday night, will meet the Senators with a 9-1-1 record in their last 11 games. It is good enough to lift the Caps into the top spot in the Eastern Conference, pending the result of the Montreal Canadiens contest with the San Jose Sharks on Tuesday night.
The Senators come to Verizon Center in somewhat different
straits. After posting a four-game
winning streak leading up to Thanksgiving, Ottawa is 4-5-0 in their last nine
games, and two of their wins were earned in overtime. They have been outscored by a 26-24 margin
in those nine games, and their special teams have left something to be
desired. Their special teams index of
97.9 reflects mediocrity on both sides of special teams – a 17.9 percent power
play (5-for-28) and an 80.0 percent penalty kill (20-for-25).
If there is a hotter player in the league than Mike Hoffman,
the Caps do not want to face him.
Hoffman has nine goals in this last nine game run since Thanksgiving and
13 goals in his last 14 games overall.
He has climbed into fourth overall in goals scored. It hardly seems to be a fluke. Hoffman has 36 goals in his last 82 regular
season games played, and only ten players in the league have more goals since the start of the 2014-2015 season.
He accomplished this as a remarkably efficient shooter. Over the past season and a third, Hoffman is
shooting to a 15.4 percentage and is shooting 19.8 percent this season. That latter mark is fifth in the league among
players to have recorded at least 50 shots on goal this season. In three career games against Washington,
Hoffman is 0-1-1, even.
The flip side of the scoring in the 4-5-0 run – assists –
has been largely led by Erik Karlsson, who is 2-8-10 over that span of games,
the assist total tied for the team lead.
Karlsson, as any Caps fan knows, is “Mike Green 2.0,” a defenseman who
can, and does put up gaudy offensive numbers.
He currently leads all NHL defensemen in points (34) and assists
(27). He is tied for fifth in goals (7). Since he joined the Senators to stay in the
2010-2011 season, Karlsson leads all other NHL defensemen in total points, and
by a wide margin, 311 to 255 for Dustin Byfuglien (a part time forward) and 252
over Keith Yandle. At his current points
pace, Karlsson would become the first defenseman to finish an 82-game season at
better than 1.00 points per game since Green did it in 2009-2010 (76 points in
75 games; minimum: 60 games; Kris Letang had 38 points in 35 games in the
abbreviated 2012-2013 season). Karlsson
is 2-14-16, plus-1, in 18 career games against the Caps.
In what might be an unexpected turn, goaltending has been an
issue for the Senators. Perhaps it should
not be considered unexpected, though. Over
his last five seasons, including this one, Craig Anderson has alternated very
good and not so good save percentages:
- 2011-2012: .914 (63 games)
- 2012-2013: .941 (24 games)
- 2013-2014: .911 (53 games)
- 2014-2015: .923 (35 games)
- 2015-2016: .915 (26 games to date)
Part of his issue might be workload. He has been the goaltender of record for the
last 15 games played by the Senators, over which he has a record of 8-5-2,
2.62, .922, with two shutouts. That save
percentage is actually an improvement over his season start, but it is that
33.5 shots per 60 minutes that is a problem.
It looks as if he will be getting a break soon, though. Andrew Hammond was recalled form a conditioning assignment in Binghamton in the AHL after being out since November
15th upon taking a puck to the face mask in practice. Anderson is 11-6-1, 2.27, .928, with two
shutouts in 18 career appearances against Washington. Hammond, who is expected to get the start in Washington, is 2-0-2 overall this season with a 2.42 goals against average and a .930 save percentage. He has a win in his only career appearance against Washington, a 4-3 overtime win last April 4th. Oh, and there is this. Hammond's NHL record to date is 22-1-4. That is not a typo. What is it with goalies whose last names begin with "H?"
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Back to the shots
issue. No team has allowed more shots
per game than the Senators (34.0). Their
shot differential is, by far, the worst in the league. Their minus-6.1 is a full two shots worse
than the 29th-ranked team, the Arizona Coyotes (minus-4.1) and more
than three shots worse than the 28th-ranked teams, the New Jersey
Devils and New York Rangers (both at minus-2.8).
2. Only the Winnipeg
Jets have allowed the first goal of games as often as the Senators (20). They do have a 6-9-5 record in such games,
but the six wins is as many as the Caps have in almost twice as many games as
the Caps faced that predicament (13).
3. There have been
277 skaters to dress for the Senators in club history, but only two have
appeared in more than 1,000 games. Chris
Phillips is one of them, the franchise record holder in games played (1,179). However, back surgery this past summer has
kept him out of the lineup, and it is unlikely that he will play this season. Among current Ottawa defensemen, only Erik
Karlsson has more than 250 games of experience with the club (428), and only
Marc Methot has experience comparable to Karlsson (470 games).
4. If there is a
danger zone for the Caps in this game, it is the second period. Ottawa leads the league in goal differential
in the second periods of games (plus-13).
Then again, the Caps are fourth at plus-7.
5. Senator fans might
want to turn away looking at their club’s possession numbers – 29th
in Corsi-for percentage overall (46.1), 29th in score-adjusted
Corsi-for (45.8), and 27th in close score (46.2; numbers from
war-on-ice.com).
1. The Caps are among
the more efficient shooting teams in the league with an overall 9.8 shooting
percentage, eighth in the league.
Trouble is, they will be facing the top shooting team in the league in
Ottawa (10.9 percent).
2. The Caps have
scored power play goals in 15 games this season. Their record in those games is 14-0-1. No other team has avoided a loss in
regulation time when scoring a power play goal (Montreal is 12-1-3).
3. On the other hand,
the Caps have the second best record (10-2-1) in games when they allow a power
play goal. Only one team has more wins
in those situations – Ottawa (11).
4. To complete the
tour of random special teams facts, Washington is the only team in the league
with a perfect record when scoring a power play goal and shutting the opponent out
on the power play (6-0-0). Three other
teams have extra-time losses when scoring a power play goal and denying
opponents a power play goal – Montreal (8-0-3), Calgary (0-0-2), and the New
York Rangers (5-0-2).
5. Here is an obscure
random fact. The Caps have allowed more
than 50 Corsi events (shot attempts) at 5-on-5 in seven games this season. Three of them came in the Caps’ last six
games. This is not a trend one wants to
pursue (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Ottawa: Bobby Ryan
Once upon a time, Bobby Ryan was thought to have the
potential to be among the top goal scorers in the NHL. The second overall pick in the “Sidney Crosby
Draft (2005),” Ryan scored 133 goals in 249 games of Canadian juniors, then
followed that up with 33 goals in 70 games in the AHL. He began his NHL career as if he would
fulfill that promise, posting more than 30 goals in each of his first four full
seasons in the league. Then came the abbreviated
2012-2013 season. Ryan, who was in the
midst of a five-year/$25.5 million contract with the Anaheim Ducks, finished
with just 11 goals in 46 games. He was
traded to Ottawa the following summer for Jakob Silfverberg, Stefan Noesen and
Ottawa's 1st round choice in 2014 Entry Draft.
And, it set in motion a slippage in Ryan’s goal scoring overall. Since those four 30-plus goal seasons, he has
61 goals in 225 games, a 22-goal pace per 82 games. It hardly seems to merit the
seven-year/$50.75 million deal he signed in October 2014 to extend his stay
with the Senators. With nine goals in 31
games so far this season, he is on a pace to finish 24 goals. Ryan is 5-4-9, minus-5, in 11 career games
against Washington.
Washington: Matt
Niskanen
Matt Niskanen has quietly put together an interesting year
on the power play for Washington. Not
generally thought of as a power play force, he does have 69 career power play
points, which ranks in a tie for 33rd among defensemen since his
rookie season in 2007-2008. This season
he has five power play points in 53:19 of power play ice time. On a points-per-minute basis, his efficiency
is roughly the same as the number one quarterback on the power play, John
Carlson (11 points in 105:12). Niskanen
has never finished with fewer than six power play points in a season; he has
five so far this season (1-4-5). He is
2-1-3 (one of those goals being a power play goal), minus-1, in 15 career games
against Ottawa.
In the end…
This game poses an interesting challenge for the Caps. Ottawa might be an elite team, or at least a much better one, but for their
ghastly possession numbers (and other than the disturbance in your seats, how
did you like the play, Mrs. Lincoln?).
They do not lack for scoring in a league that does; they do not have a
superior penalty kill, but they seem to find ways to overcome that
problem. They do, however, put entirely
too much pressure on their goaltenders with shot attempts and shots on goal
allowed, both ranked worst in the league.
If the Caps are to come out of their own possession funk
(49.3 in score adjusted Corst-for over their last 18 games; 46.2 over their
last six contests), this might be the team to serve as the cure. If they lose the possession battle to this
team, even if they win the game, it will signal a problem that needs to be
addressed expeditiously before a slump in the standings plays out.
Capitals 4 – Senators 2
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