The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game road swing
through the Central Division on Saturday night when they mosey on over to Big-D
to face the Dallas Stars. The Caps are
heading into this contest with a five-game winning streak, but they have been
playing on a thin edge. Four of the five
wins were by one-goal margins, the other one featuring an empty-net power play
goal for a two-goal win.
Meanwhile, the Stars, who had a rocky 3-6-2 January, are
4-1-0 so far this month. Oddly enough,
all four wins came on the road, while their only loss was at home to the
Chicago Blackhawks (they redeemed themselves of that loss five days later with
a 4-2 win in Chicago, their last contest before this one).
The Stars feature a formidable offense that scored four or
more goals in each of their four wins this month and 18 goals overall in five
February games. The part that might
cause some concern is that their defense and goaltending has been a bit leaky
over those same five games, allowing 16 goals.
Special teams have followed a similar path, the power play humming along
at 5-for-17 in February (29.4 percent) while the penalty killers are 13-for-16
(83.1 percent).
Tyler Seguin (3-4-7) and Patrick Eaves (4-3-7) lead the
Stars in points in February. Eaves did
his greatest damage with a hat trick in the Stars’ 4-2 win over Chicago on
Thursday. Eaves, now in his 11th season
in the NHL, has always had questions about durability. He has not appeared in more than 70 games in
a season since 2008-2009 with Carolina (74 games), and he will not this season,
having missed 20 games already. He has not
appeared in more than 50 games in a season since 2010-2011 (63 games with Detroit). Since that season he has played in just 156
games, not quite two full seasons worth of games out of four full seasons and
the abbreviated 2012-2013 season. Eaves
is 4-3-7, minus-2, in 22 career games against Washington.
Seguin has been doing his damage in twos. He has three two-point games in
February. And, he has been quite
effective on the power play, recording four points on the five Dallas power
play goals scored this month. Seguin got
off to an impressive start this season with 34 points in his first 24 games and
46 points in his first 34 games.
However, in his last 21 games he has cooled off, going just 9-5-14,
although his good start in February suggests he might be returning to his
earlier season form. Seguin is 6-3-9,
plus-1, in 16 career games against the Caps.
Then there is the matter of who will tend goal for
Dallas. Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen
have split the minutes roughly 60-40 in Niemi’s favor, but there is no clear
edge in their performance numbers. Niemi
has the better goals against average (2.52 to 2.79), but Lehtonen has the
better save percentage (.912 to .908).
Niemi has more wins (20 to 15), but Lehtonen has the better winning
percentage (.750 to .571). Lehtonen took
the decisions in Dallas' last two contests (both of them wins), stopping 81 of
86 shots (.942 save percentage). Niemi
opened the month with three appearances, winning two of them and stopping 50 of
59 shots (.847), and he was pulled for Lehtonen after giving up three goals on
11 shots in a 5-1 loss to Chicago on February 6th. Niemi has never lost to the Caps in
regulation, posting a 5-0-3 record with a 2.52 GAA and a .912 save percentage,
with one shutout in eight appearances.
In 24 career appearances against the Caps, Lehtonen is 16-6-2, 2.56, .924,
with two shutouts. He was the goalie of
record in the Stars’ 3-2 win over Washington last November, stopping 29 of 31
shots.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Dallas leads the
league in games in which they scored four or more goals. In 25 such games they are 23-2-0.
2. Only four players
in the NHL have 60 or more points.
Dallas has half of them – Jamie Benn (28-34-62) and Tyler Seguin
(28-32-60). For the record, the other two
are Patrick Kane (33-44-77) and Erik Karlsson (11-51-62).
3. Dallas can be
dangerous when killing penalties. Only
three teams – Ottawa (10), Montreal (8), and Winnipeg (8) – have more
shorthanded goals scored than the Stars (7).
Then again, they can be leaky on their own power play. Only Arizona (10) has allowed more
shorthanded goals than the Stars (9).
4. Dallas and Chicago
are the only teams in the league to have scored 50 or more goals in each of the
three regulation periods. The Stars are
tied for the league lead (with Chicago) in first period goals (50), are tied
for seventh in second period goals (54), and lead the league in third period
goals (69).
5. The Stars rank
third in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (53.4 percent) and are
second in home games in that category (55.8 percent). In five February games they are at 56.2
percent overall (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. The Capitals,
starting with this game, have 29 games left to play. If they play “.500” hockey from here out (29
points in 29 games), they will finish with the second best record in franchise
history (113 points, exceeded only by the 2009-2010 Presidents Trophy-winning
team).
2. The Capitals have
84 points in 53 games. That is the
second highest point total through 53 games in NHL history. The 1979-1980 Philadelphia Flyers had 85
points through 53 games on a record of 36-4-13.
Things didn’t go so well for the Flyers thereafter, though, as they
finished the season with a 12-8-7 record over their last 27 games to finish
48-12-20 overall (they had more ties than Men’s Warehouse).
3. “Two” is a very
nice number for the Caps. When they
allow two or fewer goals they are 30-1-1, their .938 winning percentage being
tops in the league. Then again, they
have the best record in the league when allowing three or more goals, too
(10-8-3/.476).
4. The Caps are the
only team in the league to have scored more than 60 goals in two of the three
regulation periods – 61 in the second period and 67 in the third period (second
in the league in both categories).
5. Washington is
still stuck under 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in road games this season
(49.1), but overall in February they have been pretty good at 51.9 percent
overall (home and road; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Dallas: John Klingberg
It would not be faint praise to think of Dallas defenseman
John Klingberg as a “poor man’s Erik Karlsson.” Both hail from Sweden (Karlsson from
Landsbro, Klingberg from Gothenburg).
They are just 27 months apart in age (Karlsson being older). Both are primarily offensive defensemen. Both followed similar early career
trajectories (Karlsson was 18-53-71 in 135 games over his first two seasons;
Klingberg is 21-65-86 in 120 games in his second season). And, perhaps most important, they rank
one-two in scoring among defensemen in the NHL, Karlsson first (11-51-62) and
Klingberg second (10-36-46). February
has been kind to Klingberg, who is 4-2-6, plus-3, in five games, part of a
longer run in which he has points in six of his last eight games (4-4-8). He has three points (all assists) and
is plus-2 in two career games against the Caps.
Washington: Brooks Laich
If it wasn’t for bad luck, Brooks Laich would have no luck
at all (on the ice, that is). In 52
games so far this season, Laich has one goal on 59 shots, the 343rd worst
shooting percentage (1.7) among 350 forwards in the NHL appearing in at least
25 games and averaging at least 10 minutes of ice time a night. It actually
goes back further, that single goal being his only one in his last 57 games
dating back to last season. One can
understand slumps, but being tied with Paul Carey (one goal in four games) and
Zach Sill (one in nine contests) is just plain dishwater dirty luck. Players with Laich’s experience score more
than that by accident, which, in fact, his lone goal this season sort of was, a
redirect off his right skate of a Dmitry Orlov drive in a 4-1 win over the
Boston Bruins on November 5th. He is
0-4-4, minus-2, in ten career games against Dallas, but we’re going to go out on
a limb and say he gets his first career goal against the Stars on Saturday
night.
In the end…
In a game pitting the top two scoring offenses in the league
against one another and two of the top five power plays, this game will come
down to defense and penalty killing, both of which favor the Caps. Washington allows more than four-tenths of a
goal less per game than Dallas (2.26 to 2.67), and their penalty kill is almost
four percentage points better (83.9 percent to 80.0 percent). That will be the difference as they achieve
their third winning streak of six games or more this season.
Capitals 5 – Stars 3
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