The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The NHL is settling into its schedule rhythm after the
All-Star game break, and that means the Washington Capitals get an opportunity
to wash the taste of their 5-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night
when the New York Islanders visit Verizon Center on Thursday night.
The Capitals will be looking to avoid consecutive regulation
losses for the first time this season and a third straight loss for the first
time this season, while the Islanders look to build on their 5-3 win over the
Minnesota Wild on Tuesday.
For the Islanders, that win over the Wild extended a pattern
of alternating wins and losses over their last five games (3-1-1). In outscoring opponents 16-11 in those five
games, it was plainly a case of scoring to win.
In the three games the Islanders recorded three or more goals, they
won. In those in which they did not,
they lost.
John Tavares leads the overall scoring over the last five
games for the Islanders (2-4-6). In what
has been an off year for him, compared to last season, Tavares has been streaky
of late. In five games from December
21st through January 2nd, he was 2-4-6, plus-1.
He followed that up with a three games stretch without a point, going
minus-4 in the process. In his last six
games he is 2-5-7, plus-3. An odd
Tavares fact…four of his first 11 goals this season were game-winners, recorded
in 21 games. He does not have a
game-winning goal among the six he has in his last 24 games. Tavares is 10-10-20, plus-2, in 22 career
games against the Capitals.
Brock Nelson leads the goal scorers over the Isles’ last
five games with three. Those three
tallies got him to the 20-goal mark, tying a career-best set last season in 82
games. He has done it by ramping up his
shooting percentage. Among 391 players
recording at least 50 shots on goal so far, his 17.8 percent shooting ranks
eighth in the league. He has seven goals
(including a hat trick against the Columbus Blue Jackets on January 12th)
over his last eight games on 24 shots (29.2 percent). Nelson is 1-2-3, even, in eight career games
against Washingon.
Is there a goaltender controversy brewing in Brooklyn? For the Islanders’ last contest against the
Minnesota Wild, head coach Jack Capuano reached past Jaroslav Halak and Thomas
Greiss to pluck Jean-Francois Berube out of Bridgeport in the AHL and send him
between the pipes. There was some
speculation that this was prelude to a trade, but Berube acquitted himself well in stopping 40 of 43 shots in the Islanders’
5-3 win. He was the fourth goaltender to
appear in a game for the Islanders this season (Christopher Gibson appearing in
one game on January 2nd, a 5-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins).
It would seem, though, that one of the two principals will
get the call in this game. If it is Greiss,
the Caps will be facing a goalie they have no book against, a goalie with one
career appearance against Washington (a 39-save effort in a 5-3 win in February
2012 when he was tending goal for the San Jose Sharks). However, he is the sort of player who Caps
fans might familiar in his off-ice experience.
If it is Halak, the Caps will be facing a goalie who has
been steady, if not spectacular, since the calendar turned over. In his last four appearances he is 2-1-1, 1.72,
.940. It might seem a bit surprising to
Caps fans that he has only 11 regular season career appearances against the
Caps in which he is 6-5-0, 2.70, .899.
Here is how the teams compare overall:
1. Look out for those
last 20 minutes. Of the 16 goals scored
by the Islanders over their last five games, 10 came in the final 20 minutes.
2. Power plays are an
unfamiliar concept to the Islanders on the road. Only the Anaheim Ducks have had fewer power
play opportunities on the road (54) than the Islanders (57) this season.
3. Still on special
teams facts, only four teams have allowed more shorthanded goals overall than
the Islanders (5): Colorado (6), Dallas (7), New Jersey (7), and Arizona (9).
4. Those ten third
period goals in their last five games is no fluke. Only three teams have scored more in the
third period this season than the Islanders (54 goals): the New York Rangers
(56), the Caps (60), and the Dallas Stars (68).
5. New York is not a particularly adept team on the road in
terms of possession. They rank 19th
in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (47.5 percent), 16th in
score-adjusted Corsi (49.5), and 22nd in close score situations
(46.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).
1. The Caps went
0-for-8 on the power play against the Florida Panthers in their 5-2 loss on
Tuesday. What a difference just one
power play goal might have made. The Caps
are 22-0-2 in the 24 games in which they recorded at least one power play goal.
2. More on the power
play… the Caps have more games played this season with two or more power play
goals scored than any other team. Their
11-0-1 record in those 12 games is better than the 8-2-0 record the
second-ranked San Jose Sharks have, the only other team with ten or more games
of multi-power play goals scored.
3. The Caps and the
Minnesota Wild are the only teams in the NHL to have allowed fewer than 40
total goals in each of the three regulation periods this season.
4. Washington has the
best record in the league in one-goal games this season (13-2-4/.684). They have the second-best record in games
decided by three or more goals (15-5/.750).
They can win close or win big.
5. The Caps finished
their 5-2 loss on Tuesday with a Corsi-for of 67.2 percent, their highest such
mark of the season. Seven times they
have hit or passed the 60-percent mark, and their record in those games is 4-2-1. They accomplished the feat five times at
home, going 3-1-1 in those games. Oddly
enough, the only team against which they did it twice was the Florida Panthers,
and the Caps recorded an overtime win and a regulation loss in those games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Mikhail Grabovski
When the Capitals signed Mikhail Grabovski as a free agent
before the 2013-2014 season, it was to give the center a bigger role than the
bottom-six role he was chained to with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Oddly enough, his average ice time with the
Caps was barely distinguishable in his only season in Washington (15:45) than
what he averaged in his last season in Toronto (15:34). Now, having moved on to the Islanders, his
ice time is shrinking once more – 14:16 in average ice time last season and
13:54 in 48 games so far this season. If
he continues on that pace it will be his lowest average ice time for a full
season in his career (he averaged 13:18 in three games in his first season in
2006-2007 and 11:14 in 24 games the following season). Despite the comparatively limited exposure,
Grabovski is fifth on the team in total points (23) and sixth in goals (8). He and Kyle Okposo are the only Islanders to
record an overtime goal this season.
Grabovski is 3-10-13, plus-7, in 21 career games against Washington.
Washington: Braden Holtby
Except for a brief stint in the first round All-Star game
against the Atlantic Division, Braden Holtby will have had an eight-day break
since his last serious action (a 28 save effort in a 4-3 overtime loss to the
Philadelphia Flyers on January 27th), and that game will have been
his only game in 16 days. He has a
career 25-13-4 record on three or more days rest, a somewhat lower winning
percentage (.595) than his record in other games (106-43-17/.639). The Caps will be looking for him to play the
role of stopper in this game to prevent the team from losing its third
consecutive game for the first time this season. In 11 career appearances against the
Islanders, Holtby is 8-1-2, 2.11, .936.
In the end…
The Caps are entering a part of their schedule that features
more intra-divisional matchups. Starting
with this game, the Caps play three straight against Metropolitan Division
opponents. Beating the Islanders would
be a good start on driving a stake through any hopes any Metro team has of
overtaking the Caps this season.
Capitals 4 – Islanders 2
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