Justin Williams
“If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do
the job, wait until you hire an amateur.”
-- Red Adair
After the Washington Capitals were eliminated from the
postseason in May 2015, general manager Brian MacLellan looked at his situation
at right wing, and you had the feeling that he was not excited about his in-house options in the short term:
“[A right winger is] on the shopping list. I think it’d be a priority for us if we could find a guy who could play there. I don’t know if the UFA market’s going to provide that for us. We’ll see what happens in the trade market here coming up, see if we can find that. Otherwise we’re going to have to develop a guy.”
As it turned out, there was a newly minted free agent right
wing who just wrapped up his seventh season with the Los Angeles Kings, two of them ending in Stanley Cup victories to add to the one he won in Carolina with the Hurricanes in 2006. And when the unrestricted free agent signing
period opened on July 1st, the Capitals signed him – Justin Williams had a
two-year, $6.5 million contract.
In Williams, the Capitals now had an almost legendary
performer in precisely the situations that had so confounded and disappointed
Capitals Nation for decades – coming through in the clutch in Game 7’s of a
postseason series. What better tonic could
there be for a franchise eliminated in Game 7’s in each of their three most
recent playoff appearances and in six of their last seven trips to the
postseason than a player whose teams had a 7-0 record in Game 7’s in which he
appeared, who had seven goals in those seven games (tied for most in league
history with Glenn Anderson), and whose 14 points in Game 7’s was best in
league history?
In terms of his regular season with the Caps, Williams
top-end numbers (22-30-52, plus-15, in 82 games) were almost an overlay of his
career numbers per 82 games coming into this season (20-32-52, plus-8). The 22 goals he recorded is the most he
scored in a single season since he had 33 with the Carolina Hurricanes in
2006-2007. The 52 points was his highest
total since 2011-2012 with the Kings (59 points). He had three game winning goals, a number he
had not exceeded since he had eight in that 2006-2007 season in Carolina.
Williams improved in just about every major statistical
category from his final year in Los Angeles.
He improved by four in goal scoring, by seven in assists, 11 in points,
seven points in plus-minus, and he recorded 27 more shots on goal this season
than he did last year with the Kings.
Only in power play scoring did his numbers drop (down one goal and three
assists from last season), a product of the fact that he averaged a minute less
per game than T.J. Oshie, who played the same position in the Caps’ power play
scheme.
Fearless’ Take… What our esteemed cousin has pointed out
with other players applies to Williams, too.
His goal scoring mattered. The
Caps were 17-2-0 in games in which he scored a goal. They were 31-5-4 in games in which he scored
a point. His ten-game splits reflect a
remarkable consistency in goal scoring, as well.
In six of the eight segments Williams recorded two or three goals.
Cheerless’ Take… Those ten game splits have another thing
about them that doesn’t look so good.
Look at the last four…11 points, seven points, six, four. And the plus-minus… plus-8, plus-4, minus-1,
minus-5. That’s not exactly the
direction you want to see those numbers go as time passes by. Points and plus-minus is influenced by
teammates to a degree, but still. Not
good.
Odd Willams Fact… Justin Williams scored more than a quarter
of his goals this season against the New York Rangers (six), and that number
increased his number of goals scored against the Rangers by 67 percent over the
total he recorded in the first 28 games he played against the Blueshirts over
his career coming into this season (nine).
If only he had been a Capital last season.
Game to Remember… December 8th versus Detroit
Going into their December 8th contest with the
Detroit Red Wings, the Caps sat in second place in the Metropolitan Division, one
point behind the New York Rangers. It
was a bit early in the season to think it an urgent matter to put the Rangers
in the rear-view mirrors, but it’s never a bad thing to jump ahead of a rival
in the standings, either. And the Caps
got off to a good start on that objective in their contest against the Red
Wings. Less than a minute into the game,
Marcus Johansson managed to keep a sliding puck in the offensive zone and fed
it to Evgeny Kuznetsov coming down the right side.
Kuznetsov worked his way in deep and tried to stuff the puck past goalie
Jimmy Howard, but it ended up off on Howard’s right. Justin Williams was in perfect position, even
if on his knees, to poke the puck past Howard’s right pad and under his stick
to give the Caps the early lead just 43 seconds into the contest. For Williams it was his 600th NHL point, one
of 37 active players to have reached that milestone. And, with the win, the Capitals took over the
Metropolitan Division lead from the New York Rangers, a lead they would not
relinquish for the remainder of the season.
Game to Forget… December 31st versus Carolina
Although Justin Williams had not worn a Carolina Hurricanes
uniform since 2009, any time a player faces a former team, his juices get
flowing a bit faster. On New Year’s Eve,
the Caps took a nine-game winning streak to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes. The teams fought to a scoreless tie in the
first period, and the teams exchanged goals in the second period. The Hurricanes broke on top, though, with a
pair of goals just over four minutes apart to start the third period. The Caps got one back courtesy of Alex
Ovechkin, but it was as close as the Caps could get, Andrej Nestrasil adding an
empty net goal in a 4-2 Carolina win to snap the Caps’ winning streak. Williams, who had three goals and three
assists in the nine-game winning streak, was held without a point and did not
have a shot on goal in 12:51 of playing time.
It was his second lowest ice time total for the season. His lowest – 12:43 on October 17th
in Game 4 of the season – also came against Carolina.
Postseason: 12 games, 3-4-7, minus-3, 49.7 Corsi-for at
5-on-5, minus-3.1 CF%/Relative 5-on-5
Coming into this season, Justin Williams could have been the
poster boy for fancy stats. In ten
seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout, he never had a Corsi-for value at 5-on-5
for a season of less than 51.8, and that came in the 2005-2006 season right out
of the lockout. Twice he finished a
season over 60 percent (2012-2013 and 2013-2014 with the Kings). In ten seasons before this, his
Corsi-for/Relative at fives was never below a plus-2.6. In his first season with the Caps those
numbers were 53.4 percent and plus-3.3.
So what happened in the playoffs? His Corsi-for of 49.7 percent was his second
worst in seven postseason appearances, and his minus-3.1 Corsi-for/Relative was
the worst of his career, the only time he finished in minus territory. And as it was for many Capitals forwards, it
was like looking at two different players or seasons. Against the Philadelphia Flyers in the first
round, his Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was 57.3 percent, although even there the signs
were ominous. His Corsi-for/Relative was
in plus territory in Games 1-3, but he was underwater in each of Games
4-6. In the second round against the
Pittsburgh Penguins, his overall number plunged to 43.1 percent, and he was in
minus territory on his Corsi-for/Relative in four of the six games.
In the end…
Justin Williams provided a stable, reliable presence on the
right wing in the regular season, part of the effort on the part of general
manager Brian MacLellan to ensure precisely that in his off-season personnel
moves. But there was an additional
aspect of his game that the Caps sorely needed – his ability to step up in big
games, to provide the kind of performance the Caps needed to get over the hump
of early playoff round losses.
If you look at Williams’ postseason resume overall, it is
good, but not especially impressive.
Since the 2004-2005 lockout he is tied for 26th in postseason
games played (110), 14th in goals scored (32), tied for 16th
in assists (47), tied for 17th in points, tied for 15th
in game-winning goals. In that scoring sense, he over-performed relative to the number of games he played. But it was that
ability to perform when the stakes were highest – Game 7’s – that was to be the
remedy for the Caps’ playoff ills.
Unfortunately, the Caps failed to reach a Game 7 in the second round
against the Pittsburgh Penguins, losing that matchup in six games. We will have to wait another year to see if
the legend lives on, and the Caps can rid themselves of their postseason curse.
Grade: B
Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America
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