“After climbing a great hill, one only finds that there are
many more hills to climb.”
-- Nelson Mandela
There were 85 players in the NHL who appeared in at least 82
regular season games last season.
Washington Capitals defenseman Dmitry Orlov was one of them. It might not sound like a particularly noteworthy
accomplishment, but he was one of just seven defensemen 24 years old or younger
to play in all 82 games last season, it was his first season having played in
all of the Caps’ regular season games, and perhaps most important it signaled a
successful return from a wrist injury that cost him the entire 2014-2015
season.
They were not empty minutes Orlov played, either. He was 8-21-29, plus-8 last season. Only Mike Green among Capital defensemen in
the post-2004-2005 lockout era posted more goals and more assists with a better
plus-minus rating at the age of 24 or younger.
And as one might expect from a defenseman who might be thought of among
the “secondary scoring” contingent, when he did score, the Caps were
successful. They were 6-1-1 when Orlov
recorded a goal, 21-4-1 when he recorded a point.
It might have been his working his way back into NHL-playing
shape, or injuries to other defensemen, or his performance, but as the season wore on, Orlov got a heavier
workload. In his first three ten-game
splits of the season he did not post a 20-minute game. In his fourth ten-game segment he had five
such games and had a total of 13 games with 20 or more minutes of ice time over his
last 47 games of the season.
Even having missed an entire season to injury, Orlov is just
the 16th defenseman in Capitals history to appear in 200 or more
games by the time he reached the season in which he turned 24 years of age. He is only the 13th Capitals
defenseman to record a total of 60 or more points by that milepost of his
career. He also ranks high in his 2009
draft class. The 55th overall
pick in that draft and the 20th defenseman selected, Orlov is 11th
in games played among defensemen in that class (201), 12th in goals
scored (14), tenth in assists (46), tenth in points (60), and eighth in
plus-minus (plus-8).
Fearless’ Take…
Dmitry Orlov posted some rather impressive possession
numbers in 2015-2016. His 53.43 percent
Corsi-for led all Capitals defensemen logging at least 100 5-on-5 minutes
(numbers from Corsica.hockey). He was 17th
of 119 NHL defensemen with at least 1,000 5-on-5 minutes. And, it is a fine number in historical
context. That 53.43 percent Corsi-for is
the 13th-best mark for a Capitals defenseman logging at least 500
5-on-5 minutes over the last nine seasons (53 defensemen overall). His possession numbers have improved in each
of his NHL seasons, from 49.50 Corsi-for in 2011-2012 to 50.00 percent (in just
five games) in 2012-2013, to 51.20 in 2013-2014, to 53.43 percent last season.
Cheerless’ Take…
Eleven games, no goals, one assist, benched after playing
less than six minutes in Game 1 of the second round playoff series against the
Pittsburgh Penguins, benched for Game 2 in its entirety. One shot on goal in five games of the Penguin
series. He became the eighth defenseman in Capitals playoff history to appear in at least 11 games and record one or no
points. That is a list that includes
Brendan Witt, John Erskine, Tim Gleason, and Ken Sabourin, none of whom could
be thought of as offensive defensemen.
That was Dmitry Orlov’s introduction to postseason hockey.
The Big Question… Is Dmitry Orlov a legitimate top-four
defenseman on a Stanley Cup contender?
A team that finished the previous season with 56 wins and
120 standings points without suffering any big offseason personnel losses has
to be in the conversation of which teams are Stanley Cup contenders. Last season, Orlov was working back and forth
between a third and second pairing on defense, depending on the Capitals’ blue
line injury situation. This season, it
would seem as if he is going to get more consistent second pairing minutes,
depending on how the Caps and head coach Barry Trotz intend to deploy Brooks
Orpik.
The unknown is as much how he will mesh with his partner in
a top-four scenario. Last season, Orlov
skated more than 100 5-on-5 minutes with just three defensemen: Taylor Chorney,
Nate Schmidt, and Brooks Orpik, none of whom would be a top-four defensemen if
Orlov earns a spot. He skated a total of
132 5-on-5 minutes with Matt Niskanen, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson, one of
whom would be his partner as a top-four blueliner (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com). If Niskanen and Alzner are reunited as the
top pair on defense as far as 5-on-5 ice time is concerned, keep in mind that
Orlov skated only 31 5-on-5 minutes with Carlson all of last season. There might be some early get-to-know-one-another
considerations here.
In the end…
Dmitry Orlov gets lost in the noise among other Capitals
under-25 year old players. Evgeny
Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky, and even Tom Wilson seem to get more
attention. Orlov was not a first round
draft pick, as those other three were, which makes his progress a bit more
unexpected, but certainly not unwelcome.
And, he is part of a solid cohort of under-30 defensemen on the club that includes
John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Matt Niskanen, and Nate Schmidt. He does have issues from time to time in his
own end and in going for the hit rather than the smart play, still (evidenced
by his benching in last spring’s playoffs), but he has improved his game from
year to year despite his losing more than a full season to injury. Had that not taken place, one might be
talking about Orlov as having among the better early-career resumes among
defensemen in Caps franchise history.
Now, Orlov appears likely to be given more responsibility
(top-four ice time) commensurate with his developmental arc. The Caps are a deep enough team to be able to
suffer the occasional hiccups and mistakes than might come with graduating to
that level of responsibility. However, it is something that Orlov has to work
to address and overcome. That is the next hill to climb in his development.
Projection: 80 games, 9-22-31, plus-8
Photo: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images North America
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