The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take the ice on Wednesday night in
their annual Thanksgiving Eve game, this year hosting the St. Louis Blues at
Verizon Center. The Caps come into this
game on a bumpy road, going 3-3-1 in their last seven games. On the other hand, the Blues might be
righting themselves after a rocky start.
After going 7-6-3 in their first 16 games, the Blues arrive at Verizon
Center winners in three straight.
The wake-up call for the Blues might have been an 8-4
pasting they took at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets in Columbus on
November 12th. It was after
that game that the Blues started their three-game winning streak. And, they
have done it with defense and goaltending.
Jake Allen authored all three of the wins in goal for St. Louis,
allowing just four goals on 86 shots overall (.953 save percentage). His effort has allowed him to jump up to 17th
among 39 goaltenders with at least 400 minutes played in goals against average
(2.31) and 21st in save percentage (.910) after going 2.63/.896 in
his first 12 appearances this season.
Allen assumed a larger work load in each of his first three seasons in
the NHL, going from 15 appearances in 2012-2013 to 37 in 2014-2015 to 44
appearances last season. It inspired
enough confidence for the team to trade Brian Elliott – last season’s save
percentage leader – to Calgary this past June. Allen has one career appearance against the
Caps, a 32-save shutout in a 4-0 win at Verizon Center last March 26th.
Vladimir Tarasenko has been a model of consistency in his
offensive production for St. Louis in the first quarter of the season. In 19 games, he has 19 points and has been
held off the score sheet only six times in those 19 games. He has points in seven of his last eight
games, over which he is 3-7-10, plus-2.
If there is an odd fact about his season so far, it is that he had a
hand in all four goals (goal, three assists) in the 8-4 loss to Columbus that
shocked the Blues into their current three-game winning streak. And, all four points came on power
plays. He is tied for fourth in the
league in power play points (2-7-9). Tarasenko
is one of the most prolific goal scorers in the league. Since becoming a full-time player in
2012-2013, he is tenth in the league in total goals scored (105). In five career games against Washington, he
is 3-1-4, plus-5.
In a league where the attention on defensemen focus on
players such as Shea Weber, P.K. Subban, Erik Karlsson, and Drew Doughty, there
is Kevin Shattenkirk, the “Energizer Bunny” of defensemen. Take away the lockout-shortened 2012-2013
season and his point totals are borderline bizarre – 43 in 2010-2012, flowed by
seasons of 43, 45 (after the lockout season), 44, and 44 last season. With 14 points in 19 games so far this season
(4-10-14), he is on a pace (60 points) to shatter his career best. He is something of a power play specialist,
too. Since arriving in the NHL in
2010-2011, Shattenkirk is tied for sixth with San Jose’s Brent Burns in total
power play goals scored (30). In nine
career games against the Caps, he is 1-4-5, plus-5.
1. Three is the key
number for the Blues. When they score
three of more goals, they win. This can
be said generally for most NHL teams (NHL teams are 238-30-22 in such games
though Monday’s contests), but the Blues are 8-1-0 in such games, the only loss
being the 8-4 misfortune against Columbus.
They are 2-5-2 in games in which they score two or fewer goals.
2. Only five teams
have scored fewer 5-on-5 goals through Monday’s games than the Blues (27) – New
Jersey Devils, Vancouver Canucks, Ottawa Senators, Colorado Avalanche, and
Buffalo Sabres. Only the Devils hold a
playoff eligible spot among those teams, the second wild-card spot in the
Eastern Conference.
3. On the other hand,
the Blues are one of just three teams with two 5-on-3 power play goals this
season (Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins being the others). They also have the fifth-most 5-on-6 goals
(3).
4. If you are going
to get the Blues (or give the Blues the blues, or…never mind), it will be in the second period. With 23 goals allowed, only two teams have
allowed more scores in the middle frame – Winnipeg Jets (28) and Dallas Stars
(24).
5. St. Louis is the
top possession team in the league as measured by 5-on-5 Corsi-for (54.13
percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey). They do it, as many Ken
Hitchcock-coached teams do, by denying shot opportunities. St. Louis’ shots attempts allowed per 60
minutes is the lowest in the league, the only team to allow fewer than 50
5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes (48.48).
1. On that three-goal
thing, the Caps are 9-0-0 when scoring three or more goals. But here is an odd thing about scoring two
goals. Only four teams have scored two or more goals less often than the Caps
(13 times, 10-2-1) – Buffalo (10), Ottawa (10), Colorado (11), and the Blues
(11).
2. For whatever
reason, and there might be some bigger issues going on,
Alex Ovechkin’s shots are down significantly.
His 4.17 shots per game is his lowest since the 2011-2012 season, one in
which he recorded “only” 38 goals in 78 games on 303 shots (he averages 5.02
shots per game over his career). This is
despite his efficiency (12.0 shooting percentage) is not far off his career
mark (12.4 percent).
3. No team has
allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals so far this season than the Caps (22).
4. Fifteen times in
18 games, the Caps have scored first (10-3-2).
Only Montreal has done it as often (13-1-1) in 19 games.
5. The Caps are seventh
overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.97 percent) but tenth overall on home ice
(52.48 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
St. Louis: Jay Bouwmeester
Defenseman Jay Bouwmeester played in his 1,000th
NHL game against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on November 1st,
one of 17 active players hitting that milestone and one of 102 defensemen to
reach the 1,000 game mark in NHL history.
He is among the most durable and consistent defensemen of this era. In 12 full 82-game seasons prior to this
one, Bouwmeester appeared in all of his team’s games nine times and hasn’t
appeared in fewer than 72 games in a full season since his sophomore season in
2003-2004, when he appeared in 61 games.
While he has never quite lived up to the offensive promise his
third-overall selection in the 2002 entry draft might have suggested, he has
become a foundation player in his own end, and his consistency and durability
have allowed clubs a certain comfort that he would be there on a night-t0-night
basis, freeing them up to concentrate on other areas. If there is a concern at this point in his
career, it is in his offense, which has dropped significantly since his first
full year in St. Louis (2013-2014: 4-33-37, plus-26). In his last three
seasons, including this one, spanning 163 games through Monday, he is 6-29-35,
minus-1. Bouwmeester is 6-15-21,
minus-4, in 46 career games against the Capitals.
Washington: Zach
Sanford
After 18 games, Zach Sanford is the only forward appearing
in more than one game this season not to record a goal. When he does, it will be his first in the
NHL. Part of the situation is
opportunity. Skating just 10:24 per game
in 16 games, he does not get a lot of minutes, and what he does get are
generally fourth line minutes, almost all of them (all but 5:26 of 166:26 in
total ice time) at even strength. Those
situations do not afford him much in the way of shooting opportunities,
reflected in his recording 13 shots in 16 games. He has shown a versatility so far, getting most
of his minutes as a winger but filling in at center when Lars Eller went down
to injury. When he has had better
linemates, he has not been a liability, at least in terms of possession. For example, in 40-plus minutes skating with
Eller and Justin Williams at 5-on-5, the line has a 56.34 Corsi-for at fives
(numbers from Corsica. Hockey). He shows
signs of being the product of a fine program in college (Boston College), with
the need to develop a stronger foundation of experience before Caps fans see
what his potential really is. This will
be his first appearance against St. Louis.
In the end…
The Caps are in a rut, treading water over their last seven
games. Except for their seven-goal
explosion against Pittsburgh, they are having trouble scoring, three times in seven
games scoring a single goal, twice scoring only two goals in regulation, and
getting shut out once. That they
recorded standings points in three of those six games (a regulation win, an
overtime win, and an overtime loss) is a reflection of just how well their
goaltenders are playing and how well the Caps are tending to business in their
own end. But that kind of play places a
strain on goalies and defenders, and provides a slim margin for success. St.
Louis, even if they are coming to Washington to play the back half of a back-to-back set of games (they will be in Boston to face the Bruins on Tuesday night), will provide quite a challenge to reversing that trend.
Capitals 3 – Blues 2
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