The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals complete their back-to-back weekend
on Saturday with a visit to Nashville to meet the Predators. A late-February
trip to Music City would not normally register high on the interest meter for
the regular season, but this game might be different. The Caps will be trying
to deny a young Predator the opportunity to tie a long-standing and only
once-tied individual record in the NHL. And it happens that the young Predator
in question happened to be a former first-round pick of the Caps and was a key
piece of one of the most infamous trades in team history.
By now, the diligent Caps fan knows that the object of this
part of the discussion is Filip Forsberg, taken by the Caps with the 11th
overall pick of the 2012 draft. Less than a year later he was traded to
Nashville for Martin Erat and Michael Latta. Erat played parts of two seasons
with the Caps before he was traded to the Phoenix (now Arizona) Coyotes with
John Mitchell for Chris Brown, Rostislav Klesla, and a fourth-round draft pick
(that fourth round pick was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes with Jack Hillen
for Tim Gleason). Klesla was traded with Michal Neuvirth to Buffalo for
Jaroslav Halak, who played 12 games with the Caps before he was traded to the
New York Islanders for a fourth round draft pick that was later parlayed into a
third-round pick that was used to select Nathan Walker. Brown was traded in
2016 to the New York Rangers for Ryan Bourque. Latta played in 113 games over
three seasons with the Caps before heading off to Los Angeles as a free agent
(he is now in the Chicago Blackhawks system). So in the end, Forsberg went to
Nashville, and the Caps ended up with…Ryan Bourque and Nathan Walker.
Forsberg would be of special interest in this game only for
the aforementioned history. But this game is, or rather could be, special. Last
Tuesday, he recorded a hat trick in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Calgary Flames.
On Thursday night he recorded another hat trick, this one in a 4-2 win over the
Colorado Avalanche. Should Forsberg bring the hats raining down in Nashville on
Saturday, he would become the third player in NHL history to record hat tricks
in three consecutive games. Joe Malone did it twice in the 1917-1918 season,
and Mike Bossy did it in 1980-1981 (no, none of the games were against the
Caps). Forsberg’s goal-splosion of sorts can be viewed as either unexpected
(even with the six goals he ranks tied for 23rd in the league with 22) or the
cork popping from the pent-up pressure (he had one goal in his previous 11
games). In four career games against the Caps, Forsberg is 4-2-6, plus-1).
The Predators have dressed 35 skaters this season, a high
number for this point in the schedule. Looked at another way, only four skaters
have appeared in all 60 games to date for Nashville. The one that might have
Caps fans asking, “who?” is defenseman Mattias Ekholm. Think of him as
Nashville’s version of Karl Alzner, but with a little more edge in his game. He
is about the same size, bears a passing resemblance to the Caps defenseman, and
has put up somewhat better offensive statistics (19-62-82, plus-24 in his 287
NHL games). What he has is more penalty minutes, almost 50 more (134) than
Alzner had at a similar point in his career (87 in his first 287 games). Ekholm
had a modest two-game point streak broken in the win over Colorado on Thursday
night. He is 2-2-4, even, in five career games against the Capitals.
It is hard to figure out just what the Predators have in
goalie Pekka Rinne these days. Is he, at age 34, starting that long slow
descent through the latter stages of his career, or is he just a guy in a
slump? Whatever the case, he is 4-3-0, 3.08, .893 with one shutout over his
last nine appearances, and he has been pulled twice from games. He has been
much more effective on home ice this season, even if he has not been any more
efficient. That is to say, he does have a 15-5-4 record on home ice, compared
to 8-10-2 on the road, and he does have a 2.31 goals against average on home
ice, compared to 2.71 on the road. However, his home ice save percentage of
.917 in barely distinguishable from the .915 save percentage he has on the
road. The big difference is in the shots he faces – only 27.7 per 60 minutes on
home ice versus 32.0 shots per 60 minutes on the road. He has faced the Caps
only three times in his career with a 2-1-0, 2.68, .911 record.
1. Nashville has
never been a consistently explosive offensive team, but this year’s edition has
the third-highest scoring offense in franchise history (2.85 goals per game).
It also has the third-best power play in team history (18.8 percent) and the
second-highest shots on goal per game average (31.7).
2. Scoring in the
first period is a challenge for this team. In 60 games they have scored 37
goals, one fewer than they scored in the entire abbreviated 48-game season of
2012-2013. Only four teams in the league have scored fewer first period goals
than the Predators this season.
3. Winning close
games has been a challenge, too. Their 10-6-9 record in one-goal games is the
fifth-worst winning percentage (.400) in the league.
4. Nashville has been
stomping people in the middle period. No team has more second period goals this
season (75), and they have a plus-28 goal differential, best in the league.
5. Adjusted for
score, zone, and venue, Nashville is sixth in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5
(51.39 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey). It is largely a product of their
offensive pressure; the Predators rank seventh in shot attempts per 60 minutes
at fives (59.96).
1. Once you account
for the trick shot phase of the game, there is almost no difference between
this year’s Caps and last year’s, record-wise.
Through 60 games this season, the Caps are 40-12-2 in games not settled
with the Gimmick. Last year, they were
42-11-3 in non-Gimmick games through the 60-game mark.
2. Through 60 games,
this year and last, the 2016-2017 team is slightly better on offense, scoring
200 goals (3.33 per game) compared to 197 goals at this point last season
(3.28). It is defense where this year’s
team shines compared to last year, shaving a quarter-goal per game off their
goals allowed (2.05 this year, 2.30 last year).
3. Special teams are
comparable through 60 games this year and last.
The 2016-2017 special teams index (power play plus penalty kill rates)
of 106.4 (21.9 pp/84.5 PK) is just a shade off last year’s 107.5 (23.3 PP/84.2
PK).
4. Starting with
their 7-3 win in St. Louis on January 19th against the Blues, the
Caps have alternated wins and losses in regulation on the road (4-3-0). They will be looking to end that pattern
after having beaten the Flyers in Philadelphia, 4-1, in their last road game.
5. Only one team this
season has given up more than three goals in a road game less frequently than
the Caps. Washington suffered that
result just five times so far this season (0-4-1); the San Jose Sharks have
four such instances (0-3-1).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Nashville: Viktor Arvidsson
The Predators are 6-5-2 over their last 13 games. Not a
great record, to be sure, although they do have 43 goals scored over that span
(3.31 per game). Viktor Arvidsson has had a hand in more of them than any
skater (8-4-12) and is tied for the team lead in goals over that span (with
Filip Forsberg). Arvidsson might be the least known productive player out of
the 2014 draft. The fourth round/112th over pick from that draft is ninth in
games played (120), ninth in goals scored (27), tied for eighth in points (57),
and is tied for fifth in plus-minus (plus-7). This has been a breakout year for
him. Playing in his first full NHL season (he played in 56 games last season
and six the previous year), Arvidsson is 19-22-41, plus-15, in 58 games played
and is tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals (three). He does have
quite a disparity in home and road splits, though – 12-12-24, plus-15 in 31
home games and 7-10-17, even in 27 road contests. He does not have a point and
is minus-2 in three career games against Washington.
Washington: Daniel Winnik
Calling a forward group “The Best Fourth Line in the NHL”
might be damning with faint praise, given the responsibility of a fourth line generally. Whether the Caps have that best fourth line
might be a subject of debate, but it is hardly faint praise to put Jay Beagle,
Tom Wilson, and Daniel Winnik in that discussion. It is a group that contributes. It is a trio that as a trio has been on ice
for fewer 5-on-5 goals against (six) and has a lower goals-against per 60
minutes at fives (1.14) than any forward group in the NHL with at least 250
5-on-5 minutes played together (numbers from Corsica.hockey).
The three have different roles. Beagle is something of the energy guy who runs at high RPMs when he is on the ice. Wilson is the one with the physical edge. Daniel Winnik might be the glue that binds the three. Only four times this season has Winnik been a “minus” player and never worse than minus-1. The Caps are 5-0-2 in games in which he recorded a goal, and they are 12-0-3 in games in which he recorded a point. He does not have quite the ice time, or the offensive numbers to go with it, that he had earlier in his career with the Anaheim Ducks, but he fills solid, reliable minutes that strengthens what in previous years has been a weakness of the club – the bottom six forwards, particularly its fourth line. Winnik is 7-4-11, plus-4, in 26 career games against Nashville.
The three have different roles. Beagle is something of the energy guy who runs at high RPMs when he is on the ice. Wilson is the one with the physical edge. Daniel Winnik might be the glue that binds the three. Only four times this season has Winnik been a “minus” player and never worse than minus-1. The Caps are 5-0-2 in games in which he recorded a goal, and they are 12-0-3 in games in which he recorded a point. He does not have quite the ice time, or the offensive numbers to go with it, that he had earlier in his career with the Anaheim Ducks, but he fills solid, reliable minutes that strengthens what in previous years has been a weakness of the club – the bottom six forwards, particularly its fourth line. Winnik is 7-4-11, plus-4, in 26 career games against Nashville.
In the end…
These are the times that try the Capitals’ depth, but it
tests how well players play in their lanes, too. It is tempting to try to do more in the absence
of key cogs like T.J. Oshie, Andre Burakovsky, Matt Niskanen, and Brooks Orpik,
but the object isn’t to fill their roles as much as it is to do a better job of
filling the role you are asked to play.
Coaches will try to shelter the replacements like Riley Barber, Aaron
Ness, or Zach Sanford through matchups and shift management, but the regulars
have to raise their game within the construct of their respective roles,
too. That makes this week – and this
game – as much an opportunity as a challenge, an opportunity to put some steel
in the spine of the club that they will need when the playoffs come around in a
couple of months.
Capitals 3 – Predators 2
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