The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 63: New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals, March 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It will be back to the ice on Thursday night for the Washington Capitals in what will be new defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk’s first game on home ice as the Caps host the New Jersey Devils at Verizon Center.  The Caps, winners of three of their last four games, will take on a Devils team that has lost four in a row, the last two in overtime.

It has not been offense carrying the Caps of late, but defense and goaltending.  In each of the three wins in those last four games the Caps allowed opponents a single goal.  On the other hand, the Devils have been hemorrhaging goals, allowing four or more in three of the four losses in their four-game losing streak.

It is not as if the Devils were blown out in their four straight losses.  In addition to the two overtime losses they lost another one-goal decision in regulation, and they lost a two-goal decision to the New York Islanders that they trailed by one goal at the second intermission.  It has made for a bit of a waste of offense for the usually offense-challenged Devils; they have 11 goals in their last four games and were held to less than three only in a 2-1 loss to the Ottawa Senators on February 21^st.

Kyle Palmieri has had a hand in more than half of the Devils’ goals in this four-game stretch, leading the team with four goals and seven points.  The recent surge of scoring has lifted Palmieri into the team lead in goals (19) and within a point (40) of Taylor Hall for the team lead in points (41).  It is part of what has been a rather productive 2017 portion of the season for Palmieri, who is 12-8-20, plus-1, in 25 games in the new year.  The odd part of his recent goal scoring is that the Devils are just 1-1-3 in the last five games in which he has a goal.  He is 2-2-4, plus-1, in 10 career games against the Caps.

Travis Zajac has also been productive over those last four games for the Devils, going 2-4-6.  He comes into this game with points in five straight games (3-5-8) and in six of his last seven contests.  That rush has Zajac poised to match his offensive production from last season.  At 13-26-39 through 61 games, he is within striking distance of the 14-28-42 scoring line he had in 74 games last season.  What he is also in striking distance of matching is his highest average ice time for a season.  Zajac averages 20:05 so far this season, the third time he averaged more than 20 minutes in an 11-year career and the first time since the 2013-2014 season when he averaged a career high 20:19 in average ice time.  He is 5-19-24, plus-3, in 39 career games against Washington.

The Devils have dressed 10 defensemen this season, nine of them having recorded at least one goal.  None have more goals than John Moore.  The six goals he has this season is a season high in a career covering seven seasons and 346 games with four teams.  However, the goal he scored in the 4-3 loss to Montreal in his last game was his first in 13 games and just his second in more than two months dating back to a 5-4 overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings back on November 25^th.  Moore is 2-1-3, minus-1, in 11 career games against the Caps.

1.  New Jersey has more extra time losses (12) than any team in the league except the Toronto Maple Leafs (13).

2.  No team has more losses this season when scoring first than the Devils (18 – 10 in regulation and eight in extra time).  Only Arizona (.483) has a worse winning percentage overall when scoring first than the Devils (.486).

3.  New Jersey has had more losses by three or more goals (14) than any team in the Eastern Conference (by now, you’re thinking this has not been a very good year for the Devils).

4.  OK, on the good side, the Devils have the best penalty kill on the road in the league (88.0 percent).  They are tied with Toronto and the New York Rangers for the fewest road power play goals allowed this season (12).  On the bad side (and you knew there would be one), they have allowed power play goals in three of their last five road games.

5.  Adjusted for score, zone, and venue, the Devils have the fourth-worst Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in the league (47.38 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey). 

1.  Washington comes into this game with 25 wins in 31 home games (25-5-1), tied with Pittsburgh for the most home wins in the league (going into Wednesday’s games).  With ten home games remaining, six wins would set a record for home wins in a season (31).

2.  The Caps could dial back the power plays they face at home.  Only five teams have been shorthanded more frequently than the Caps (101).

3.  The Caps have been an extraordinarily stingy team on home ice, allowing only 52 goals in 31 games (1.68/game).  The second-place team, the Anaheim Ducks, have allowed 60 goals on home ice in two fewer games (2.07 per game).

4.  The Caps have just one trick shot win this season.  If they get another one, they can avoid tying the franchise low for Gimmick wins in a season (one, in 2006-2007, when they went 1-11).

5.  The Caps have the worst penalty differential in the league at 5-on-5 (minus-34), but that record is better on home ice, where they are minus-8, tied for seventh-worst in the league (with Ottawa; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Cory Schneider

It might seem odd, but the New Jersey Devils’ number one goaltender does not have a decision in three games the Devils have played against the Caps this season.  He stopped all 18 shots he faced in 28:35 in relief of starter Keith Kinkaid in a 5-2 loss to the Caps on January 26^th in his only appearance against Washington this season.  He comes into this game as a loser in four of his last five appearances (1-2-2), but he probably does not deserve a record quite that bad with a 2.78 goals against average and a .919 save percentage.  It is not as if his skaters pick up for him when he has an off night this season.  Only one of his 19 wins have come when he allowed more than three goals, and when allowing three goals he has a record of 3-7-1.  Schneider is 3-5-2, 2.25, .920, with one shutout in 11 career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Tom Wilson

In his first three seasons, Tom Wilson compiled 486 penalty minutes in 231 games (2.10 minutes per game).  He had 33 fighting majors.  This season Wilson has six fighting majors, almost as many as he had last season (seven), but his 74 penalty minutes in 62 games is almost a minute per game (1.19) shaved off his average over his first three seasons.  On the other hand, his next goal will tie a career high (seven in 82 games last season), and he has 20 games in which to do it.  He is also a plus-10, a career best, and he is averaging a career high 2:13 in penalty-killing time per game, a career high, tied with Lars Eller for third-most among Caps forwards this season.  Wilson’s offense matters, too.  The Caps are 6-0-0 in the games in which Wilson has a goal this season, and the loss to the Nashville Predators last Saturday was the first time in 13 games this season in which Wilson recorded a point that the Caps lost.  What Wilson does not have in his career is a goal against the Devils.  He is 0-3-3, plus-5, in 14 career games against New Jersey.

In the end…

Sure, this could be seen as a trap game, a contest against a lesser opponent to start a three-game home stand after a big win on the road against a team the Caps might face in the playoffs.  But here is perhaps the most interesting fact of all concerning the Caps and home games (this one will really impress your friends).  In seven multi-game home stands this season, the Caps won the first game of them each time.   Why would you think this would go otherwise in their eighth rodeo?

Capitals 4 – Devils 2