The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals, mired in a 1-4-1 slump over their
past six games, head out on the road to face the very definition of a desperate
team on Saturday night when they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning on the gulf
coast of Florida. The Caps, who could take the ice on Saturday night behind the
Columbus Blue Jackets in the league standings should the Blue Jackets win on
Saturday afternoon, will be playing the Lightning for the last time this year in the regular season,
hoping to take the season series. Washington lost in a Gimmick, 2-1, back on
December 3rd in Tampa, and then they defeated the Lightning, 4-0, at Verizon
Center on December 20th.
Tampa Bay, one point behind the Toronto Maple Leafs for the
second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference, is on a roll. Although they
were thumped by a 5-0 margin by the Maple Leafs on Thursday night, the
Lightning have won four of five and are 12-3-3 in their last 18 games, over
which they have not lost two in a row.
If there has been a player whose game has fit the nickname
“lightning” over those last 18 games, it is Nikita Kucherov. Not only does
Kucherov lead the club in goals (12) and points (24) over that span, he is tied
for fourth in goals and is fourth among all players in the league over that
span. However, that lighting-like run might be coming to an end. When he was
held without a point in the 5-0 loss to Toronto on Thursday night it was his
second consecutive game without a point after getting points in nine of ten
games preceding that (10-10-20). He has
been a remarkably consistent player over the last three seasons in goals
(29-30-31), assists (36-36-38), and points (65-66-69). With 12 games to play
this season he could obliterate his career bests to date in those categories.
Kucherov is 4-3-7, plus-2, in 10 career games against the Caps.
Two other Lightning have averaged at least a goal per game
over this 18-game run, although they have done it in different ways and with
different presences. Victor Hedman is 7-11-18 in those 18 games and has risen
to third overall in points this season among defensemen (59), trailing only
Erik Karlsson (63) and Brent Burns (70). His 45 assists trails only Karlsson
(50), and no defenseman has more power play points this season than Hedman
(27). He also has two of the team’s three game-winning overtime goals in this
18-game run, the first two overtime games of his eight-year career. Your odd
Hedman fact…he has as many career points (288) as the Caps’ Kevin Shattenkirk,
although he’s done in in 59 more games. Their scoring lines are almost identical:
Hedman is 63-225-288, Shattenkirk is 66-222-288. Hedman is 2-10-12, minus-3, in
29 career games against Washington.
Then there is the missing player, Tyler Johnson. He has
averaged a point a game in the 12 games he appeared in among the Lightning’s
last 18 games (3-9-12), but he has dealt with two bouts of injury. His most
current, categorized as a “lower body injury,” has kept him out of Tampa Bay’s
last four contests. The Lightning are 3-1-0 in those games, but he is 3-5-8,
plus-4, in ten games against the Caps. If he is missing, he will be…well,
missed.
1. Since February
4th, when Tampa started this 12-3-3 run, only the Chicago Blackhawks have
earned more standings points (28) than the Lightning (27).
2. No team has been
involved in more Gimmick decisions over that span that the Lightning, who are
2-1 in three games decided in the freestyle competition.
3. One thing Tampa
Bay has had a problem with in those 18 games is penalties. Only four teams have
taken more penalties than the Lightning (79).
4. Only one team has
fewer blocked shots than Tampa Bay (206) since the Lightning started their
12-3-3 run. The Florida Panthers have 178 blocked shots.
5. The low blocked
shot total over their last 18 games would appear to be the classic, “we have
the puck, so we don’t block shots” situation. Their shot-attempt (SAT)
percentage of 53.02 is third best in that span of time, behind only the Boston
Bruins (53.22) and the Los Angeles Kings (57.32; source: NHL.com).
1. Over their last
six games, over which they are 1-4-1, the Caps have allowed 21 goals. Only two
teams – the Detroit Red Wings and the New York Islanders – allowed more (22
apiece).
2. Over those same
six games, no team has had more power play chances than Washington (23, tied
with the Philadelphia Flyers), but only five teams have a worse power play
(13.0 percent, tied with the Flyers). Then there are the penalty killers. They have
been on ice more frequently than any other team, and it’s not close – 27 times
(the New York Rangers have been on 21 times).
3. There is no
Capitals on this team who has more than two goals against Tampa Bay in Tampa in
seven games over the last five seasons.
Alex Ovechkin, Jay Beagle, and Marcus Johansson have two apiece.
4. The Caps have the
fifth-worst special teams index over that period: 90.8 (power play:
13.0/penalty kill: 77.8).
5. Ray of sunshine or
blowing smoke up your sleeve… The Caps have the sixth-best SAT percentage over
their last six games (54.76). Then again, that number drops to 14th-best in
“close” situations (50.63; numbers from NHL.com).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Tampa Bay: Brayden Point
So, you spend your 21st birthday in Manhattan, playing a
game at the world’s most famous arena – Madison Square Garden – and you score a
pair of goals, one of them the game-winner to break a 2-2 tie in the third
period, in a 3-2 win over the New York Rangers. Do birthdays get any better
than that? Maybe not, if you are Brayden Point, but that’s how he spent his
21st birthday on Monday. Point, a third-round pick by the Lightning in the 2014
draft, is very much an unrecognized talent from that draft, ranking 16th in
games played in that class (56, all of them this season), 13th in goals (12),
and 12th in points (27). In this year’s rookie class he has as many goals as
Matthew Tkachuk and more points than Jimmy Vesey. How many fans could pick him
out of a lineup, though? Point is one of six players in double digits in points
in this 12-3-3 run over the last 18 games (7-3-10) and is tied for second in
goals with Victor Hedman, behind Nikita Kucherov (12). He has been unsustainably
efficient, scoring those seven goals on just 26 shots (26.9 percent). He does
not have a point and is minus-1 in two games against the Caps.
Washington: John Carlson
If you look at the Caps-Lightning series over the last five
seasons, it would be no surprise to see Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom
each having scored 20 points in 15 games against Tampa Bay. There is, however, another player on this
team that averaged a point a game in the 15 games he played against the
Lightning. John Carlson is 3-12-15,
plus-13, in those 15 games, his dozen assists second only to Backstrom (15) in
that span. Carlson, in fact, leads the
team in points against Tampa Bay on the road (0-7-7), and his plus-6 is far and
away tops on the team in those seven games (Nate Schmidt is plus-3 in four
games). He has the rather impressive
feat of having recorded at least one point in each of the seven games in which
he played in Tampa in his career, and he has points in 13 of the 15 games
overall in which he faced the Lightning, including the last eight contests.
In the end…
This is one of those games of which the term “possible
first-round matchup” applies. On February
3rd, the Lightning were dead last in the Eastern Conference, albeit just eight
points out of a playoff spot. Eighteen games later, they have jumped over six
teams and have but two more to climb over – the New York Islanders and the
Toronto Maple Leafs – to grab the second wild card spot. And keep in mind that
they have done this without Steven Stamkos playing as much as one second over
that period, Stamkos having been out of the lineup since mid-November with a
knee injury that required surgery.
The key in Tampa Bay’s recent success, and in fact perhaps
the key in this game, might be found in the play of goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy,
who has stepped up his game, now that he is firmly the number one goalie after
the Ben Bishop trade to Los Angeles. Vasilevskiy appeared in 11 of the 18 games
in the 12-3-3 run and posted a 6-2-3, 2.04, .936 record. When he allowed four
goals in 26 minutes of the 5-0 loss to Toronto on Thursday night, it was his
first loss in regulation in his last eight decisions, in five of which he
allowed a single goal, and it was his earliest hook in a home game this season.
Given the Caps’ recent offensive struggles, it makes for a formidable
challenge, but then again, that’s what this time of year is about overcoming.
Capitals 3 – Lightning 2
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