The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return home on Tuesday night trying
to maintain their razor-thin edge at the top of the league standings when they
host the resurgent Calgary Flames. The Flames, stuck at .500 as recently as
January 24th (24-24-3) after a 5-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens, are 17-3-1
in their last 21 games. They have climbed from fourth in the Pacific Division
and eighth in the Western Conference on January 24th to third in the Pacific
Division, just one point behind the Anaheim Ducks for second place, and fifth
in the Western Conference.
Since that loss to Montreal on January 24th, the Flames have
the most standings points earned of any team in the league (35). They have
built their 17-3-1 record since then on a stingy defense that allowed just 46 goals,
their 2.19 goals allowed per game average being lowest in the league. And that
stingy defense starts with goalie Brian Elliott, who leads the league in wins
since January 24th (15), is second in goals against average (1.88 to Jake
Allen’s 1.81 with St. Louis), and is third in save percentage (.935, behind
Allen at .938 and Anaheim’s Jonathan Bernier at .936).
Elliott will be coming into this game on a roll that could
only be explained in a way Caps fans would understand as “Holtbyesque.” He has
won 11 straight decisions and is 12-0-1 in his last 13 appearances, over which
he has a GAA of 1.67 and a save percentage of .942. Only twice in that span of
13 games has Elliott allowed more than two goals, five on 28 shots in a 6-5 win
over the Nashville Predators on February 21st and three on 35 shots in a 4-3
win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on March 13th. He does, as one might expect,
have a weakness on the road this season, going 10-7-3, 2.82, .897, although he
has won his last four road decisions, including a 3-0 whitewashing of the
Winnipeg Jets in his last road game on March 11th. Elliott is 6-4-0, 3.24, .887
in 12 career appearances against the Caps, those GAA and save percentage
numbers being his worst against any team in the NHL.
On the offensive side of the puck the Flames have not been
quite as impressive at the team level (11th in goals scored since January
24th), but Johnny Gaudreau has. In the Flames’ 17-3-1 run since then, Gaudreau
is 6-17-23, plus-14, leading the team in assists and points. Gaudreau, the
smallest skater in the league to dress for a game this season (157 pounds,
officially), has put together an impressive resume since being taken in the
fourth round (104th overall) in the 2011 entry draft. IN that draft class,
Gaudreau ranks ninth in goals (71, tied with Columbus’ Boone Jenner), seventh
in assists (124, tied with Florida’s Jonathan Huberdeau), and seventh in points
(195). The odd part of his numbers this season is that his scoring line is
precisely the same on the road as it is at home (8-18-26), although he has been
slightly more productive on the road, where he has that scoring line in 29
games compared to 33 home contests. Gaudreau is 0-2-2, minus-2, in five career
games against Washington.
Micheal Ferland is the answer to a trivia question. “In the
Flames’ 17-3-1 run, who leads the team in goals?” Bet you would have gone a
long while before coming up with “Micheal Ferland.” A fifth round draft pick of
the Flames in 2010, Ferland is in his second full season and third overall with
Calgary. His 14 goals and 21 points in 67 games are career highs. He has done
it without getting a ton of ice time. Only three times in 67 games this season
has he topped 15 minutes in ice time, and none of those times on the road. In
fact, among 18 Calgary skaters appearing in at least 30 games this season,
Ferland is averaging the least amount of ice time per game (11:20). What he has
been is efficient with the time he has had, best among those 18 skaters in
shooting percentage (15.1 percent). Ferland, who is listed a "day-to-day" with an illness, is 0-0-0, minus-3, in three career
games against the Capitals.
1. If there is one
thing Calgary has not been particularly adept at in their 17-3-1 run, it is
getting and converting power play opportunities. Okay, that’s two things, but
the Flames have had just 54 power play opportunities since January 24th when
they started this run (sixth fewest) and their 16.7 percent conversion rate
ranks 21st.
2. Their penalty
killing has been better, but not extraordinary. Over those same last 21 games,
the Flames killed 83.9 percent of the shorthanded situations they faced, sixth
in the league in that span. Their skill has been in avoiding those situation.
With 56 shorthanded situations in their last 21 games, they have had fewer than
all but three teams since January 24th (Sane Jose (54), Chicago (54), and
Edmonton (49).
3. Calgary also has
put that 17-3-1 record together without managing to put a lot of shots on goal.
With 630 shots on goal in that span, they rank 29th (Detroit has 585 shots on
goal).
4. Calgary has had a
certain scoring balance in their 17-3-1 run. Nine different players are in
double digits in points; 17 different players have goals. They spread the ice
time around, too. Only two forwards have averaged more than 20 minutes per game
(T.J. Brodie with 23:47 and Mark Giordano with 23:26), while no forward has
averaged that much (Gaudreau averaged 18:05).
5. The Flames have
been a middle of the road team in terms of possession on their long run of
success. They rank 15th in SAT percentage over that span (50.30), although
their SAT percentage in close situations is ranked much higher (sixth at 51.98;
numbers from NHL.com).
1. Nicklas Backstrom
has been a monster at home, his point total (45) being head and shoulders above
his teammates (Alex Ovechkin is next with 34 points).
2. T.J. Oshie is
another player who really likes home cooking. He has 16 goals on 58 shots, the
27.6 percent shooting percentage being best on the team at Verizon Center and
best in the league in home shooting efficiency among players with at least 25
shots recorded on home ice.
3. Washington has 28
wins on home ice and 15 different players with game winning goals. Alex
Ovechkin leads with six.
4. No player has
taken more minor penalties on home ice this year than…Brett Connolly (thought I
was going to say “Tom Wilson,” didn’t you?). He has taken 13 minors in 28 home
games this season.
5. The Caps are
eighth in the league in SAT percentage at home this season (51.59) but just
11th in close situations (51.71).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Calgary: Mark Giordano
Over the last five seasons, Mark Giordano is sixth in goals
among defensemen (62), tied for eighth in game-winning goals (11, with Roman
Josi, Duncan Keith, Dougie Hamilton, and Justin Faulk), tied for 18th in
assists (138, with Shea Weber), and is tied for 12th among defensemen in total
points (200, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan Suter). His 24:29 in average
ice time in those five years ranks 12th among all defensemen. He keeps pretty
good company. So why doesn’t he get more attention? Maybe it’s a Calgary thing.
His numbers are a bit off this season (12-22-34 in 72 games versus 21-35-56 in
82 games last year), but in one respect they are not. His plus-23 is the best
of his career and is tied for ninth in the league this season (with Dennis
Seidenberg). He has had only two “minus” games in his last 21 contests. His
scoring matters to Calgary’s success, the Flames going 9-1-1 in the 11 games in
which he has goals this season and going 20-5-1 in 26 games in which he has a
point. For this game, watch his ice time. In games in which he skated more than
25 minutes this season, the Flames are just 12-8-4. Giordano is 2-3-5, minus-2,
in nine career games against Washington, the team against which he has the
fewest appearances in his career (tied with nine games against Philadelphia).
Washington: Dmitry Orlov
Which Capital has the best plus-minus on home ice this
season? Which Capital defenseman leads
the blueliners in goals scored on home ice?
Which defenseman leads the Capitals defense in penalty minutes at
Verizon Center. If you said “Dmitry
Orlov” to all three, you win (okay, so he’s tied in goals on home ice with John
Carlson). Orlov is plas-21 in 36 home
games, has five goals, and has been charged with 23 minutes in penalties. In fact, Orlov is second among Capitals
defensemen in goals scored at home since he came into the league in 2011-2012
(17, trailing John Carlson’s 33), and he has four game-winning goals, second
only to Carlson’s seven in that span of seasons. This season he has points in 14 home games in
which the Caps are 13-1-0, and the Caps are 4-0-0 in home games in which he
scored a goal. Orlov is looking for his
first point in his career against Calgary, going 0-0-0, plus-2, in four games
overall against the Flames.
In the end…
This is pretty much a trap game for the Caps. One, they
don’t play Calgary often enough to spin up a healthy hate. Two, it’s easy to
overlook the Flames because of their recent history, missing the postseason in
six of seven years entering this season. Third, the Columbus Blue Jackets are
looming on the horizon, visiting Verizon Center on Thursday. If you look at
their underlying numbers, you might conclude that the Flames have out-performed
their production. Their possession numbers are uneven, as are their special
teams, and their offense doesn’t generate much in the way of chances. What they
have done is get excellent goaltending from Brian Ellott, the league’s third star for last week.
But Brian Elliott has not fared well against the Caps in his career, and unless
the Caps do enough to beat themselves (not impossible; it is a trap game), he
will not improve his numbers in this game.
Capitals 4 – Flames 2
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