The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their longest road trip of
the season on Tuesday night when they face the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air
Canada Centre in the Caps’ penultimate road game of the regular season. The Caps clinched a winning road trip with
their 3-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sunday night, but they would
like to make it four out of five on the trip, as well as avenge a 4-2 loss on
the ACC ice sheet last November 26th.
The Maple Leafs come into this game as one of the most
exciting stories of the 2016-2017 season, angling to return to the postseason
for the first time since the 2012-2013 season and for only the second time
since the 2004-2005 lockout. Toronto
carried a three-game winning streak through the weekend and into their game
against the Buffalo Sabres on Monday night in advance of the Caps’ visit. It is part of a run in which the Leafs are
10-2-1 over their last 13 games, carrying them into third place in the Atlantic
Division, one point behind the Boston Bruins with two games in hand on the B’s
(pending the result against the Sabres).
By now, many hockey fans are aware that the Maple Leafs have
dressed nine rookie skaters this season, seven of them appearing in at least 50
games in the blue and white. Six of them
have at least 25 points, and five of them have at least 10 goals. And nowhere are they stronger among their
rookies than at forward. Auston Matthews
(38-28-66), William Nylander (22-37-59), and Mitch Marner (18-41-59) rank first
and tied for third in points, respectively, among the league’s rookies through
Sunday’s games.
Matthews’ 38 goals this season is the third highest total
for a rookie since the 2004-2005 lockout, and it is a Toronto franchise record
for a rookie. Only Alex Ovechkin (52)
and Sidney Crosby (39), both in 2005-2006, surpassed Matthews’ rookie goal
total. His 66 points is the ninth
highest rookie point total in that span of time and with three more points
would tie Brad Boyes (2005-2006) and Nicklas Backstrom (2007-2008) for seventh
place on that list. He heads into the
weekday games on a roll, recording goals in each of his last four games (five
in all) and in six of his last eight contests (seven goals). He has point in eight straight games, tying
his longest streak of the season (Games 31-38 in late December and early
January). If there is an odd thing about
Matthews’ record this season, it is that more ice time is not necessarily a good
thing. In games in which he skated 17:30
or more, Toronto is 13-18-11. The Leafs
are 25-6-4 when he skated less than 17:30.
He is 1-2-3 in two games against the Caps this season.
William Nylander’s first full season in the NHL (he played
in 22 games in 2015-2016) has been as productive as Leafs fans might have hoped
when he was taken with the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft. His 22 goals ranks tied for 14th (with Gus
Bodnar in 1943-1944) all-time on the Toronto rookie goal scoring list. It is not inconceivable that he could finish
in the top ten, surpassing Sergei Berezin’s 25 goals as a rookie in the
1996-1997 season. He has been a
point-making machine in the last two months.
Since February 4th, when he scored a hat trick in a 6-5 win over Boston,
Nylander is 12-16-28 in 28 games, and he has points in 13 of his last 14
contests. Nylander, though, is another
player for whom more ice time might not be the best situation. In games in which he skated 16:28 or more
this season, Toronto is 9-11-11. The
Leafs are 28-13-4 in the other 45 games in which he appeared. He is 0-1-1, minus-1, in two career games
against the Capitals.
Mitch Marner is the third member of the top trio for the
Leafs, another recent high draft pick doing well (fourth overall in 2015). Although he might be less heralded than
either Matthews or Nylander, he has been no less productive. His 18 goals rank just sixth on the club
overall, but five of them are game-winners, and he is third on the club in
power play points (19). With another two
goals, he would become the 26th rookie in Maple Leafs’ history to finish with
20 or more goals. With another point, he
could become just the fourth (or fifth, depending on what Nylander does) rookie
in Toronto history to finish their first season with 60 or more points, joining
Matthews (66 points so far), Peter Ihnicak (66 points in 1982-1983) and Gus
Bodnar (62 points in 1943-1944). But
like his two fellow rookie travelers, more ice time has been an issue this
season. The Leafs are 5-10-7 in games in
which Marner skated more than 17:30, 31-13-6 in the other 50 games in which he
dressed. He is, relative to Matthews and
Nylander, in a bit of a slump at the moment.
After putting together a five-game points streakto start March, he is
1-4-5 in his last ten contests. Marner
is 1-3-4, minus-2, in two career games against Washington.
2. Toronto is tied
for fourth in total goals scored in that span (44, with Edmonton), trailing
Carolina (49), Philadelphia (47), and Boston (46). Toronto and Edmonton lead in
average goals per game over that span (3.38).
3. The Maple Leafs
have the third-best power play in the league over those 13 games (31.4
percent), trailing the Caps (31.7 percent) and Buffalo (39.3 percent).
4. Odd fact… Toronto
has just 11 wins this season when outshooting their opponents, 26 wins when
they are outshot. You might think that as prolific and precocious a team as the
Leafs would have more games outshooting their opponents that being
outshot. They do not; they have 30 games
outshooting their opponents (11-12-7), while having 46 games being outshot by
opponents (26-12-8). They are 1-0-0 when
having the same number of shots on goal as their opponent.
5. Even with their
recent success in the win-loss columns, Toronto is no possession beast. They
rank 26th in overall shot attempt shares (47.87 percent) over those 13 games in
their 10-2-1 run (numbers from NHL.com).
2. In those 25 games,
the Caps outscored their opponents, 88-63 (3.52/game – 2.52/game) and outshot
their opponents by 748-717 (29.92/game to 28.68/game).
3. On special teams,
the Caps have a 24.7 percent power play and an 81.7 percent penalty kill in
those 25 games. They scored two shorthanded goals and allowed one.
4. Only once in those
25 games against current playoff-eligible teams did the Caps lose consecutive
games – March 9th and 12th to the San Jose Sharks (4-2) and to the Anaheim
Ducks (5-2). The Caps are 11-0-1 against those eligible teams at home, 7-5-1 on
the road.
5. After going five
straight games against those clubs allowing four or more power play
opportunities, the Caps have allowed just 11 power play chances in their last
five games against playoff eligible teams, four times allowing two or fewer.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Toronto: Frederik
Andersen
The Maple Leafs have dressed four goalies this season –
Jhonas Enroth, Antoine Bibeau, and Curtis McElhinney have combined to appear in
19 games. However, as much as Toronto
has realized from their class of rookie skaters, how successful they are in the
postseason could come down to how well Frederik Anderson plays in goal. Andersen is just the third goaltender for the
Leafs since the 2004-2005 lockout to reach the 30-win mark. His 32 wins this season are one short of Vesa
Toskala’s 33 wins in 2007-2008 and five shot of Andrew Raycroft’s 37 wins in
2006-2007. He and Jonathan Bernier in
2013-2014 are the only goalies playing at least 2,500 minutes in a season to
record a goals against average of under 2.75 and a save percentage over
.915. Andersen might be the best of an
iffy lot of goaltenders over the last dozen or so seasons for Toronto, but he
would appear to justify the description as “best.” He has not lost a decision in regulation
since March 14th (7-2 to Florida), going 5-0-1 (one no-decision), 2.03, .943,
with one shutout in seven appearances.
Andersen is 2-0-1, 2.67, .909, with one shutout in three career
appearances against the Capitals.
Washington: Brooks Orpik
Brooks Orpik has had an odd sawtooth patter to his offense
over the past five years, including this one.
In 2012-2013, with the Pittsburgh Penguins, he did not record a goal in
46 games. The following year he had a
pair in 72 games for the Pens. Then he
moved to Washington and did not record a goal in 78 games. Last season, in a year cut back to 41 games
due to injuries, he still managed to record three goals, a career high. This season, alas, he is once more without a
goal. What is odd about this season’s
absence of a goal on Orpik’s scoring line is that he already has a career high
in shots on goal (81), surpassing the 66 shots he had on goal for the Caps two
years ago, also without a goal. He does
have, however, 14 assists, the eighth season he hit double digits in helpers
over his 14-year career. His points have
come largely at home this season (10 of his 14 assists). Orpik has not had a point on the road since
January 31st, an assist in a 3-2 loss to the New York Islanders in
Brooklyn. In 39 career games against the
Maple Leafs, Orpik is looking for his first goal. He has nine assists and in minus-6.
In the end…
It would be natural for a team to experience a bit of a
letdown after the hard-fought win in Columbus on Sunday evening. Toronto is the kind of team that can take
advantage of that with the offensive skill they possess. This shakes out as one of those “discipline”
kinds of games, where the Caps dictate pace, bending the Maple Leafs to a style
of their choosing. It is something that
the Caps have been pretty good at in the 2017 portion of the season, especially
against the better teams in the league.
And after years of waiting, Toronto fans can say that this edition of
the Maple Leafs is among the better teams in the league. Beware.
Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 3
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