The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
It has been almost two months since the Washington Capitals
played consecutive games against Metropolitan Division rivals. That streak will end on Monday night when,
following up on their 4-2 win over the New York Rangers on Friday night, the
Caps will visit Brooklyn to take on the New York Islanders.
The last – the only – time that the Caps faced division
rivals in consecutive games, they beat the New Jersey Devils, 5-2, in Newark on
October 13th before dropping an 8-2 decision to the Philadelphia
Flyers in South Philly the following night.
The Islanders come into this game losers of three straight
(0-2-1) and coming home after what must seem a disappointing four-game road
trip (their only win coming in a Gimmick in Florida against the Panthers to
open the trip).
Home is a different story, altogether. No team has played fewer games so far this
season on home ice than the Isles (11), but they have made it count when they
did, posting a home record of 8-1-2. They did not suffer a loss in regulation time
until dropping a 6-5 decision to the Ottawa Senators in their last contest on
home ice, back on December 1st.
That they have been successful in their limited home ice
opportunities is a reflection of their offense, which has 51 goals in those 11
games (4.64 per game), and that starts with John Tavares, who is 9-9-18 in the
11 home games, the team leader in both goals and points at Barclays
Center. Tavares, who is one of the real
bargains in the league with a $5.5 million cap hit, is in the last year of a
six-year deal. Overall this season, he
overcame a sluggish start, one in which he was 2-1-3 in his first seven games
(all of those points recorded in a 6-3 win in the Islanders’ home opener) to go
15-13-28, plus-4, in his last 22 games.
Over that span he is tied for the league lead in goals (with Las Vegas’
William Karlsson) and tied for fourth in points. In 31 career games against the Caps, Tavares
is 13-15-28, plus-6.
Over that same span over which Tavares has been among the
hottest scorers in the league, Anders Lee has 14 goals of his own, third in the
league over that span. Lee had something
of a breakout season in 2016-2017, posting 34 goals, tied for tenth in the
league. He might also be shaking off the
last of the inconsistency in his game, his goals having swung from 25 in 76
games in 2014-2015 to 15 in 80 games of the 2015-2016 season to that 34-goal
total last year. This season he has 17
goals in 29 games, tied for third in the league overall. Six of those goals have come on home ice,
second on the club, while his 14 points at Barclays Center ranks third with the
Islanders this season. Lee is 7-2-9,
plus-1, in 15 career games against the Caps.
Through Saturday’s games, 43 goaltenders logged at least 500
minutes in ice time this season.
Jaroslav Halak ranked 27 in that group in goals against average (2.93)
and 30th in save percentage (.905).
And he was the better of the two Islander goalies in that group, Thomas
Greiss ranking 42nd in goals against average (3.78) and 39th
in save percentage (.890). Halak’s
success, such as it has been this season, has been entirely a product of
support on the offensive side of the ledger.
He opened the season with a 5-2-0 record in his first eight appearances
this season, with a goals against average of 2.66 and a save percentage of
.916. Decent, if somewhat middle of the
road numbers on his own behalf. But in
his last nine appearances he is 3-5-1, 3.17, .896. He is 8-8-0, 2.75, .902, with one shutout, in
16 career appearances against the Capitals.
1. If you are going
to beat the Islanders, chances are it won’t be a blowout. Only two teams have had fewer losses by three
or more goals than the Islanders (3) this season – Tampa Bay with two and Los
Angeles with one.
2. Score first, and
win. The Islanders are the only team in
the league with a perfect record when scoring first in games (10-0-0).
3. The Islanders are
among the least penalized teams in the league, one of only seven teams
averaging less than eight minutes in penalties per game (7:57).
4. The Islanders are
the second most efficient team shooting the puck this season, scoring goals on
11.43 percent of their shots so far.
Only Tampa Bay has been better (11.68 percent).
5. Home cooking has
done little for the Islanders penalty killers.
They have the fourth-worst penalty kill on home ice this season (73.7
percent).
1. Odd as it is, the
Capitals have played only seven games against Metropolitan Division teams so
far this season. Only nine teams have
had fewer meetings against teams in the Metro through Saturday’s games. Stranger still, perhaps, three of those teams
are Metropolitan Division teams themselves, the Pittsburgh Penguins (6), the
New Jersey Devils (5), and the Philadelphia Flyers (4).
2. Washington is
going to have to ramp up its effort on the penalty kill against Metropolitan
Division teams. In seven games they are just
16-for-23 killing penalties against teams in the Metro (69.6 percent). If there is a silver lining in this game, the
Islanders are worse (13-for-20/65.0 percent).
3. The Caps have the
second-best road power play in the league at 27.8 percent. Only Pittsburgh is better (31.4 percent).
4. Washington is also
an efficient team shooting the puck on the road, fourth in the league with a
10.6 percent shooting percentage in road games.
5. The Capitals could
use improvement in their road possession numbers. They have the fifth-lowest shot attempts-for
percentage in the league in close situations in road games (46.29 percent).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Nick Leddy
Nick Leddy has quietly assembled a rather impressive body of
work as an NHL defenseman. Ove eight
seasons, four with the Chicago Blackhawks and now in his fourth season with the
Islanders, he has steadily improved his offensive numbers from the blue line. His point totals have increased in each of
the last four seasons, and he is on a pace to do so again for a fifth
consecutive season. Through Saturday’s
games, Leddy’s 24 points (6-18-24) ranks second among league defensemen, topped
only by Dallas’ John Klingberg (25). He
has been hot lately, going 3-11-14 in his last 13 games with points in ten of
those contests. Leddy is 1-5-6, minus-2,
in 18 career games against the Capitals.
Washington: Brooks Orpik
Brooks Orpik has one of the most bizarre statistics in the
league since the 2005-2006 season. In
that time, only four players have had more games in which they registered a
point without recording a shot on goal.
Orpik has done that 65 times in that span, a number exceeded only by
Henrik Sedin (120), Joe Thornton (111), Mike Ribeiro (91), and Bryan Campbell
(78). He has done it 15 times as a
member of the Caps, more than any Capital in his four years with the club
except for Nicklas Backstrom (22 times), Tom Wilson (20), and Karl Alzner (16). He leads the club in such instances this
season, having recorded a point in five games in which he did not have a shot
on goal. His ice time has made a
difference this season as well, the Caps having a 10-2-1 record in games in
which he recorded more than 22 minutes of ice time, although he is just 0-2-2,
plus-2 in those games. In 37 career
games against the Islanders, Orpik is 0-7-7, minus-9.
In the end…
The Caps have had reasonable success as guest of the
Islanders in recent years, although not without effort. Since 2005-2006, Washington is 13-8-3 in 24
games on the road against the Isles, but seven of those 13 wins have come in
extra time. The Caps have done well to
avoid having to resort to extra time to settle outcomes this season, going to
extra time just five times, although they do have four wins in those five
instances. So, will the Caps, who have
gone to extra time ten times in their last 19 visits to Long Island, need extra
time to subdue the Isles? Given New York’s
iffy goaltending and the Caps’ recent success on offense – four straight games
with four or more goals – we’re thinking it will not be necessary.
Capitals 4 – Islanders 2
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