The Peerless took a look at the Atlantic Division in his
first prognosto, and now he focuses his attention on the Metropolitan Division.
1. Washington
Capitals
The whys and the wherefores we will deal with in its own
scribbles.
2. Pittsburgh
Penguins
There has been a certain sameness to the regular season in
the Metropolitan Division. The Caps win,
and the Penguins finish second. This has
been true in each of the last three seasons.
The 2018-2019 season will make it four in a row. The usual suspects are still at The
Confluence. Sidney Crosby (29-60-89 last
season) had his fifth straight season with 80 or more points. He is the only player with more than two such
seasons in those five campaigns. Evgeni
Malkin finished last season with 98 points, the most he had in any season since
2011-2012, when he finished 50-59-109 to earn him the Ross Trophy (top point
producer), Lindsay Award (then the “Pearson,” as outstanding player), Hart
Trophy (MVP), and a spot on the first all-star team. Phil Kessel finished with 92 points, a career
high. Kris Letang dressed for 79 games,
the first time he dressed for more than 75 games in a season since he appeared
in all 82 games in 2010-2011.
Why they will go far… Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, and Letang are
all past their 30th birthdays, but they are still in their
productive prime. There is little reason
to expect a regression. They have a
rather solid pair of secondary scorers in Patric Hornqvist (97 goals in four
years in Pittsburgh) and Jake Guentzel (38 goals in his first two
seasons). And this year, after spending
two seasons as defending Stanley Cup champions, they have to be hungry after
being disposed of by the Caps in the second round last spring.
Why they will come up short… The Crosby/Malkin duo is one
of, if not the best center tandems in the league. But the Penguins’ strength down the middle
drops off considerably after that. A
question mark attaches to every defenseman they are likely to ice. Can Letang remain healthy? Can Olli Maatta put together consecutive
healthy/productive seasons (he has alternated them over five seasons)? Is Brian Dumoulin a top-four defender on a
contender? Can Jack Johnson flourish on
a team with more talent around him than he had in Columbus? Actually, Johnson inspires his own chapter of
questions, not the least of which might be, “what did the Penguins really think
they were adding?” In 12 seasons he has
one “plus” season and has the worst plus-minus of any player in the league in
that span (minus-109, tied with Justin Faulk and Sam Gagner). Whatever you think of plus-minus, that ain’t
good. And in goal, Matt Murray has to
show that he can grab the number one spot by the throat and be an elite goalie. He hasn’t dressed for as many as 50 games in
any of his three regular seasons. The
Penguins are not that deep in the system behind him to afford the luxury of
having to have another goalie appear in 30 or more games.
3. Philadelphia
Flyers
Last season the Flyers came within one win of a 100-point
season, which would have been their first 100-point season since 2011-2012. They closed with a rush, going 7-1-3 in their
last 11 games. It was a team that
behaved in the particulars as it did generally.
Philadelphia finished tied with the Los Angeles Kings for 12th
place in the league in standings points, while they were similarly ranked in
scoring offense (12th/30.4 goals per game), scoring defense (tied
for 14th/2.88 goals per game), and power play (15th/20.7
percent). But their regular season
success was followed up by going ‘splat’ against the Penguins in the first
round of the playoffs, allowing 28 goals in a six-game series loss. It is a team that will return ten of its 11
double-digit goal scorers from last season, losing only Valteri Filppula (gone
to the New York Islanders). They did
replace that production by welcoming back former Flyer James van Riemsdyk, who
had 36 goals for the Toronto Maple Leafs last season. The Flyers should not lack for scoring.
Why they will go far… The Flyers will go three-deep in terms
of solid forward lines. And, it is not
an especially old group, none of which is older than 30 (Claude Giroux). The Flyers have two of the better young
defensemen in the game in Shayne Gostisbehere and Ivan Provorov. Travis Sanheim has a considerable upside about
him and could build off his 49-game rookie season that featured some impressive
underlying numbers.
Why they will come up short… Goaltending. The Flyers are Team Dysfunctional when it
comes to this position and has been for years.
Since 2005-2006 only one goalie among the 10 to start at least 40 games
had a goals against average under 2.50 and a save percentage over .910 (Steve
Mason was 18-18-11, 2.25, .928 in 48 starts in 2014-2015). This is a club that has had 40 goaltenders
dress for them since 2005-2006. Four
dressed last season, including Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth, the latter
having struggled with injuries the last few seasons (and is out with a groin
injury now). Carter Hart might be the answer, eventually, but not likely now. Teams cannot be weak or uncertain at this
position and go far. Unfortunately,
that’s where the Flyers are.
4. New Jersey Devils
After missing the postseason for five straight seasons,
their longest absence in 30 years, the New Jersey Devils returned to the
playoffs last season off a 44-win season.
It was their biggest winning season since 2011-2012, when 48 wins were a
prelude to an appearance in the Stanley Cup final. They did it largely playing on the right side
of the margin. Their 25-8-9 record in
one-goal games was seventh-best in the league.
And they did it navigating some continuity issues in the roster. Rookie Nico Hischier was the only player to
dress for all 82 games last season for New Jersey. In all, the Devils dressed 30 skaters over
the course of the season. Their
shortcomings finally came back to haunt them when they lost to the Tampa Bay
Lightning in the first round of last spring’s postseason, scoring only 12 goals
in the process.
Why they will go far… The Devils return the Hart Trophy
winner in Taylor Hall, who put up career bests in goals (39), assists (54),
points (93), plus-minus (plus-14), power play goals (13, tying a career high), and
game-winning goals (seven, also tying a career high). They got a fine rookie season from 2017 top
overall draft pick Nico Hischier (20-32-52, plus-10). They got 44 points from rookie defenseman
Will Butcher, tops among rookie defensemen.
This is a club that got 25 or more points from four rookies last
season. No club had more. There is a bright future here.
Why they will come up short… Once upon a time, Cory
Schneider was among the best puck-stoppers in the game. In his first three full seasons in the league
– three with the Vancouver Canucks and three with the Devils – he was
122-92-34, 2.13, .926. He was the only
goalie in that six-season span to appear in 50 games and post a GAA under 2.20
and a save percentage over .925. He
added 21 shutouts for good measure.
However, the last two seasons he is 37-43-17, 2.86, .908 and three
shutouts. One wonders if, at the age 02
32, this has become the new normal for Schneider. If so, that level of performance plus the
lack of depth on this squad will hinder its progress.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets
It was all there for the taking. Overtime wins in Games 1 and 2 on enemy ice
in the opening round of the postseason.
They scored in the third period to force a third straight overtime in
Game 3. And then, the hockey gods
decided it was time to make their presence felt. An odd multi-ricochet goal in the second
overtime, and instead of taking a commanding 3-0 lead in the first round, the
Columbus Blue Jackets were back in a series against the Washington Capitals. The Jackets would hold a lead for only 3:14
over the next three games and see their season end. The Caps went on to win the Stanley Cup. In a sense, it was a season of progress for
the Blue Jackets, who reached the playoffs for a second consecutive season, the
first time in franchise history they did that.
On the other hand, it is a franchise still searching for its first
postseason series win.
Why they will go far… Columbus has players who are among the
top few at their respective positions in the NHL. Winger Artemi Panarin, defenseman Seth Jones,
and goalie Sergei Bobrovsky are all of elite status. Bobrovsky is the only one to have reached his
30th birthday. Columbus also
has one of the best young defensemen in the game in Zach Werenski, and they
have fine young forwards in Pierre-Luc Dubois and Alexander Wennberg. Cam Atkinson and Nick Foligno are players
squarely in their respective primes who are solid contributors. This is a team with talent, balance, and a
good mix of age and youth to sustain a push for a playoff spot.
Why they will come up short… Let’s face it. After winning the first two games on the road
in the opening round last year, they should have put away the Caps. To go as quickly and quietly as they did,
failing to get or hold leads in Games 4-6, one wonders if there will be a
lingering effect. Then there is the
matter of Sergei Bobrovsky in goal.
There is no questioning his ability from October to April, but it’s what
happens from April onward that needs to be addressed. In six years with the Blue Jackets, Bobrovsky
has a regular season goals against average of 2.37 and a save percentage of
.923 with 24 shutouts. Over the same
span, he is 5-12, 3.37, .898 without a shutout in the postseason. If he doesn’t turn it around in the spring,
it is going to be another early exit from the playoffs.
6. Carolina
Hurricanes
Since the Carolina Hurricanes won the Stanley Cup in 2006,
they have fallen on hard times. They
have one postseason appearance since then, reaching the conference final in
2009. They have not had a 40-win season
since 2010-2011, which is the last season they reached the 90-point level in
the standings (91 points). They shook
things up in the off-season, bringing on team legend Rod Brind’Amour as the
head coach. They traded defenseman Noah
Hanafin and forward Elias Lindholm to Calgary for Dougie Hamilton, Micheal
Ferlan, and Adam Fox. They traded Jeff
Skinner to Buffalo for Cliff Pu and three draft picks. They signed free agent
defenseman Calvin de Haan away from the New York Islanders.
Why they will go far… Carolina does not have a lot in the
way of top-end talent, but they have a fair number of nice pieces that might
fit together nicely. Sebastien Aho,
Teuvo Terevainen, Victor Rask, Haydn Fleury, Jaccob Slavin, and Dougie Hamilton
might all be pieces of a group that grows together and could be much better as
season’s end than at its beginning.
Why they will come up short… The bad part about being in a
position of having something to prove means you are probably coming off a
forgettable season. That is true for
both goaltenders. Scott Darling, seen as
the successor to the now departed Cam Ward, had a dismal year last year
(13-21-7, 3.18, .888) in his first turn as a number one goalie. Worse, he is injured, having suffered a lower-body injury Sunday against Nashville. Petr Mrazek, who made noise a couple of seasons ago as a potential number one
goalie in Detroit, was neither good last season with the Red Wings (8-7-3,
2.89, .910), nor with the Philadelphia Flyers, to whom he was traded late
(6-6-3, 3.22, .891). A young squad of
skaters and iffy goaltending? Not a
recipe for success.
7. New York Rangers
Last season was as bad as it gets. For the first time in their history, the New
York Rangers finished eighth in their division.
They finished 22nd in scoring offense (2.78 goals per game),
28th in scoring defense (3.21 goals per game), lost 29 games by
multi-goal margins, and they had the worst shot attempts-for percentage at
5-on-5 in the league (45.93). The odd
thing for them was that no team had a better record when leading after two
periods (22-0-1/.957). They just didn’t
have enough leads to hold. It was a team
that provided little support in front of goalie Henrik Lundqvist, whose goals
against average went up by almost a quarter goal per game (2.74 to 2.98)
despite his save percentage improving by five points form 2016-2017 (from .910
to .915).
Why they will go far… This is a team that will have to get
worse, or at least sell off some more parts, before they can turn back toward
the sun and become competitive once more.
Why they will fall short… Last season the Rangers had ten
double-digit goal scorers. Three of them
are gone (Michael Grabner, Rick Nash, and J.T. Miller). Their defense is aging
and not of the sort on which to build successfully. Henrik Lundqvist will be 37 years old before
year-end, and backup Alexandar Georgiev has only ten games of NHL experience. Not that it matters, because the Rangers
allowed the second highest shots on goal per game last season (35.3), and it
could be higher this season. There will
be a lot of hockey played in the Rangers’ end of the ice this season.
8. New York Islanders
For 60 games last season, the New York Islanders would not
inspire thoughts of a Stanley Cup, but neither did they look all that bad,
posting a record of 29-25-6. Then, as
the burden of being a team thin on talent and bearing the ever heavier crush of
what would happen to free-agent-in-waiting John Tavares, the Islanders finished
the season 6-12-4, and they had to win their last three regular season games to
finish that well. Oh, they could
score. Tavares (37-47-84), who has since taken his show to Toronto, and rookie
phenom Mathew Barzal (22-63-85) saw to that.
But they spent too much time fishing pucks out of their own net, last in
the league in scoring defense (3.57 goals per game).
Why they will go far… Barzal looks like the real deal. They still have talent on the good side of 30
years old in Jordan Eberle, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, and Josh Bailey. They are some years away from contending, but
they have something on which to build.
Why they will come up short… It was not a very good
defenseman squad last season, and the Islanders lost Calvin de Haan to
Carolina. What is left is either on the young
side (Ryan Pulock, who had a good rookie season last year, and perhaps Devon
Toews) or a group that looks like a lot of 4/5/6 defensemen. In goal they swap out Jaroslav Halak (now in
Boston) for Robin Lehner (in from Buffalo), but Lehner struggled under a heavy
shot volume workload last year (.908 save percentage while facing 32.8 shots
per 60 minutes. He’s not going to get
much of a break in that regard with the Islanders. Perhaps the new brain trust of Barry Trotz as
head coach and Mitch Korn as Director of Goaltending can work some magic.
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