The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game road trip
on Saturday night with a visit to Columbus, Ohio.
Columbus… “Cowtown”… “The Discovery City”… home of THE Ohio State
University (as if there are any impostors).
And also home of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are fast on the heels of
the Caps in the race to win the Metropolitan Division this season. Washington enters the contest with 35
standings points, one ahead of the Jackets, who have one more win in regulation
and overtime (16) than do the Caps (15).
Both teams have played 28 games.
These teams do seem welded at the hip in other respects,
too. For instance, both teams broke two-game
losing streaks on Thursday night with wins on the road. The Caps beat the
Arizona Coyotes, 4-2, while Columbus knocked off the Philadelphia Flyers, 4-3,
in overtime. Both clubs avoided
suffering a third straight loss for the first time this season.
There is something else these two teams share that is a bit
surprising, a bottom-third-in-the-league scoring defense. Washington is 21st in the league
through Thursday’s games (3.18 goals allowed per game), while the Blue Jackets
are 25th at 3.36 goals allowed per game. That ranking and number start with
goaltending, and that focuses attention on Sergei Bobrovsky. It has not been one of the nine-year veteran’s
best seasons. His 3.04 goals against
average in 20 appearances is his career worst to date, topping the 3.02 mark he
had with Philadelphia in 29 appearances in 2011-2012, his second season in the
league. His .901 save percentage is not
his worst to date, but he can see the bottom of the well from where he is (.899
in that same 2011-2012 season).
Bobrovsky is without a shutout this season, and while it is
still early, he has never finished any of his previous six seasons in Columbus
without one. He has been relentlessly
streaky this season. After alternating
losses and wins in his first four appearances, he went on a three-game losing
streak, which became four losses in five games, then had a four-game winning
streak, a loss, and then another three-game winning streak. He followed that with a two-game losing
streak, the second of which might have been the most ghastly performance by a
goalie this season – eight goals allowed on 26 shots in 46 minutes of a 9-6
loss to the Calgary Flames last Tuesday.
He did beat the Flyers in the overtime win on Thursday, so there might
be another streak in the offing that would not be good news for Caps fans. On the other hand, he has a save percentage
of .848 over his last five games.
Bobrovsky is 8-10-4, 2.93, .904 in 23 career games against Washington.
Cam Atkinson is among the hotter goal scorers in the league
these days. He has 13 goals in his last
dozen games since November 10th, tied with Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine
over that span for most in the league. He
scored goals in nine of those 13 games and has a pair of hat tricks to show for
it as well, one in a 4-1 win over the Hurricanes in Carolina on November 17th,
the other in the 9-6 loss to Calgary last Tuesday. Atkinson, with 19 goals this season, is
already within five of the total he had last year (24) and is more than half
way to his career high (35) set two years ago.
His next goal will give him 20, his sixth straight season with 20 or
more goals. He would join Alex Ovechkin
as the only players to have done six times in six seasons, although there are a
number of players who are likely to reach that mark later this season. Watch Atkinson’s ice time. In six games this season when he skated more
than 20 minutes, Columbus is 1-3-2. He
is 9-7-16, plus-3, in 22 career games against the Capitals.
Columbus spreads their blue line scoring around. Every one of the six defensemen to dress for
more than ten games this season has a goal.
At the top of that list are Seth Jones and Zach Werenski with five
apiece. Each of them also have 11
assists and 16 points. But whereas Jones
has two game-winning goals, one of those in overtime, and is a plus-3 this
season, Werenski has no game-winners and is a minus-7. Werenski has been a trigger man on the Blue
Jackets’ power play, his seven assists on the man advantage more than double
the total of the other eight defensemen to dress this season (three). He also has the only power play goal scored
by a Columbus defenseman this season.
However, he has been on the ice for 41 of the 94 goals scored against
Columbus this season, far more than any other defenseman (Ryan Murray: 34). He’s had a particularly tough time of late,
going minus-5 over his last three games, although he did record his 100th
career point in the 9-6 loss to Calgary.
Werenski is 2-2-4, even, in 10 career games against the Caps.
1. Columbus is one of
three teams this season to score seven or more goals in three games (Calgary
and Tampa Bay are the others). They did
it in a 7-4 win St. Louis on October 25th, in a 7-3 win over Florida
on November 15th, and in a 7-5 win at Detroit on November 26th. They also happen to be the only team in the
league to have allowed eight or more goals more than once, losing an 8-2
decision at Tampa on October 13th and dropping that 9-6 decision to
Calgary on December 4th.
2. The Blue Jackets
have the second-worst power play on home ice in the league (12.8 percent). Only Arizona (12.5 percent) is worse. Their five power play goals on home ice is
fewest in the league.
3. Columbus’ home
penalty kill is almost as bad as its home power play – third-worst in the
league (72.2 percent). Only Calgary
(72.1 percent) and Detroit (69.2 percent) are worse.
4. Columbus is one of
three teams with a perfect record when leading after two periods (10-0-0). Vegas (11-0-0) and Toronto (15-0-0) are the others.
5. The Blue Jackets
do a good job of playing within the rules.
They have been charged with 96 penalties this season. Only three teams have been hit with fewer
penalties: Carolina (92), Pittsburgh (91), and Toronto (77).
1. Of the 23 Columbus
goaltenders to have dressed against Washington in the all-time series, only one of them ever pitched a
shutout against the Caps. Steve Mason
did it twice, both times by 3-0 scores, a 26-save effort on November 29, 2009
and a 45-save blanking on January 9, 2009.
2. Washington is
4-1-2 in their last seven visits to Columbus in the regular season (7-1-2
counting playoffs), but that loss in regulation was in their most recent
regular season trip to Ohio, a 5-1 loss last February 26th.
3. If John Carlson
gets one point in this game, he will tie Adam Oates for 18th place
in points in Caps history. Carlson has
362 points.
4. Only Colorado has
lost fewer games in regulation when trailing after two periods (two) than the
Caps (three). Then again the Caps have
won only one such game. The seven games
they trailed after 40 minutes is second-fewest in the league (Dallas: 6).
5. Washington has
more wins when outshot by opponent (10) than they have total games outshooting
opponents (nine).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Columbus: Artemi Panarin
With seven goals in 27 games, Artemi Panarin is on a pace
for 21 goals this season. That would be
the lowest goal total of his four-year career (he had 27 with Columbus last
season). But don’t get the idea that
Panarin is slumping. He’s more moving
things around. He has 24 assists to go
with those seven goals, almost half way to his career high (55 last season),
and his 31 points put him on a pace to finish with a career-high 93
points.
The odd part of his production so far is that so little of
it has come on power plays. Last season
he was 7-14-21 on power plays in 82 games.
So far this season, he is 1-4-5 despite leading the team in power play
ice time per game (3:12). He goes into
this game with two assist in each of his last two games and three of his last
five contests. He would appear to be the
straw that stirs the drink for the Blue Jackets, Columbus is 6-0-0 in games in
which Panarin has goals this season, 13-2-1 in games in which he recorded a
point. On the other hand, the Blue
Jackets are 2-8-1 when Panarin failed to record a point and 9-10-2 when he did
not score a goal. He is 3-4-7, plus-3,
in nine career games against Washington.
Washington: Nic Dowd
One could reasonably say that when the Caps signed center
Nic Dowd to a one-year/$650,000 contract on July 1st, it was to
replace the outgoing Jay Beagle, who would sign a four-year/$12 million deal
with the Vancouver Canucks. The Caps got
a player of similar size, the same right-handed shot, only cheaper and more
than four years younger. But while
Beagle grew into a substantial contributor for being largely a fourth line player (38
goals in 279 games over his last four seasons in Washington), Dowd’s numbers were quite a bit more modest. In two full NHL
seasons split between the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver, he had just nine
goals in 126 games.
Dowd opened the season with promise, though, scoring a goal
on Opening Night. Then again, who didn’t? The Caps ran up a 7-0 win over the Boston
Bruins on banner-raising night. Dowd
followed that up by going without a goal in his next 16 games with only one
assist on his ledger. Dowd got an assist
in the Caps’ 3-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings on November 23rd,
though, and it started him off on a nice run of late. Over his last seven games, starting with that
win against Detroit, Dowd is 3-2-5, plus-3, despite averaging only 10:32 in ice
time per game. With four goals in 24
games overall, he seems a decent bet to push past his career high in goals –
six in 70 games with Los Angeles in 2016-2017.
He will be facing Columbus for the fourth time in his career and will be
looking for his first point.
In the end…
It is perhaps a bit early for a “statement” game, but both
teams might be looking to send a message.
For the Caps, who lost the first game of this season's series, 2-1, in Washington on November 9th, this is where the Stanley Cup journey began in earnest
last spring after dropping the first two games of their opening round series
against the Blue Jackets in Washington.
But for Lars Eller’s game-winning goal in the second overtime of Game 3
that set everything to come after in motion, this would be probably just another mid-December
game on the schedule. They want to
remind Columbus of their place in the pecking order of things.
For Columbus, the message is a bit more complex. They have had to deal with the despair that
comes from the knowledge that they had that opening series on their racket with
two wins and then two games to play on the ice sheet these teams will occupy on
Saturday night. It is a new season, and these teams have already met once, but
memories linger. In the here and now,
Columbus might want to send a message that they deserve to hang with the
champions on the merits of their talent and will, that being a point behind the
Caps is no fluke, despite the lack of marquee names on the roster.
This contest that pits two very similar teams in terms of
recent history makes this a rivalry that is becoming one of the more
interesting divisional rivalries between cities that one would not necessarily
associate with such things. But hey, it’s
hockey.
Capitals 4 – Blue Jackets 2
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