The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals hit the ice for a Sunday matinee,
hosting the Boston Bruins at Capital One Arena in a 12:30 start.
The Caps are fresh off a 4-3 win over the Calgary Flames, ending a
seven-game losing streak and posting their first win on home ice in more than
three weeks. Meanwhile, the Bruins
arrive in DC in a slump, losers of three in a row (the last two in extra time)
and 2-3-3 in their last eight games, a slide that started with a 4-2 loss to
the Caps in Boston on January 10th.
That eight-game slump has been characterized by a clear
divide in goaltending. Tuukka Rask has
both of the wins over those last eight games, posting a 2-0-2, 2.53, .917
record in five appearances (one no-decision).
At the other end, Jaroslav Halak is 0-3-1, 3.24, .850 in four games. Rask has been hot of late, despite suffering
a concussion in the Bruins’ 3-2 loss to the New York Rangers on January 19th.
He returned from that absence last Thursday, allowing three goals on 41 shots
in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers. Nevertheless, Rask is 6-0-2, 1.90, .937, with
one shutout in his last nine appearances.
If Rask gets the start, it will be conflicting forces at work, his
recent success versus a long history of despair at the hands of the Caps. He is 1-11-5, 3.30, .883, with one shutout in
his career against Washington, including allowing five goals on 19 shots in 27
minutes of work in the Bruins’ 7-0 loss to the Caps on Opening Night, his only
appearance against Washington so far this season.
As for Halak, what stands out about his play of late is that
he gets so little work on the road. He
has only one road appearance among the eight he has had since shutting out
Montreal in Montreal on December 17th, a 4-0 Bruins win. In that appearance he allowed four goals on
19 shots in a 4-3 loss to the Flyers in Philadelphia on January 16th. It is quite a turnaround from his early game
log in which 12 of his first 19 appearances were on the road (nine of the
Bruins’ last 11 games have been on home ice).
Halak is 9-10-0, 2.80, .900, with one shutout in 21 career appearances
against the Capitals.
David Pastrnak is the latest entry in the “who is the next
great goalscorer” sweepstakes. He
reached the 30-goal mark for the season – his third straight 30-goal season –
when he potted a pair in the Bruins’ overtime loss to the Flyers last
Thursday. It was his first multi-goal
game since November 26th, breaking a string of 26 games without one
(he did have nine goals over that span) after opening the season with five
multi-goal games in his first 24 contests.
With his next goal he will become the fifth player in the league with at
least 100 goals over the past three seasons, the others being Alex Ovechkin
(119), Patrik Laine (105), Nikita Kucherov (101), and Connor McDavid
(100). Pastrnak is 3-4-7, minus-12, in
11 career games against Washington, that minus-12 being his worst plus-minus
rating against any team in the league.
What the Bruins have not had much of in their eight-game
slide is offensive contributions from the blue line. Torey Krug is the only defenseman over that
span to have recorded a goal, that being the goal to open the scoring in the
Bruins’ 5-2 win over the St. Louis Blues on January 17th, Boston’s
last win coming into this game. Krug has
established himself as a reliable point-producer since his 2013-2014 rookie
season in which he finished fourth in Calder Trophy voting as the league’s top
rookie. Starting with that season
(14-26-40 – tops among rookie defensemen in all three categories – in 79
games), his 267 points ranks 12th overall among defensemen, and he
has posted consistently higher point totals over the four seasons preceding
this one (39-44-51-59). His 34 points in
40 games this season would put him on a pace for a fifth consecutive season of
improvement, but he missed the first 11 games of the season with an ankle
injury. Krug is 0-4-4, minus-10, in 15
career games against the Caps.
1. Boston has been
shooting in bad luck in their eight-game slide.
Their 275 shots on goal are 13th-most in that span, but their
shooting percentage of 8.0 is third-worst in the league.
2. No team in the
Eastern Conference teams averages more penalty minutes (9:55 per game) than the
Bruins (9:51).
3. Boston has the
third-fewest blocked shot total in the league (656), ahead of only Calgary
(653) and Buffalo (632).
4. A combination of
statistics suggests that Boston can be a punishing team. Only three teams in the league have more than
1,000 credited hits and more than 450 takeaways – Vegas (1,479/564), Carolina
(1,330/554), and Boston (1,190/451).
5. Despite their
2-3-3 record in their last eight games, the Bruins have the best shot
attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 over that span (57.24 percent).
1. No team in the
Eastern Conference has had more power play chances on home ice so far this
season than the Caps. Their 91 chances
is tied with the Montreal Canadiens.
2. On the other side,
no team in the league has been shorthanded on home ice as often as the Caps (90),
and only the Detroit Red Wings have allowed more power play goals on home ice
(22) than the Caps (21, tied with three other teams).
3. The Caps have the
second-best shooting percentage on home ice among Eastern Conference teams
(11.1). Only Tampa Bay is better (13.4).
4. Washington spends
a lot of time chasing down pucks in the offensive end in one respect. Only one team has more offensive zone faceoff
losses on home ice than the Caps (307) – Boston (320). The difference there is that Boston has 329
faceoff wins in the offensive end on home ice, while the Caps have only 262,
5. Washington is 28th
in the league in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 on home ice (47.77
percent).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Boston: Zdeno Chara
Defenseman Zdeno Chara broke into the NHL in the 1997-1998
season with the New York Islanders. He
dressed for 25 games that season but did not score a goal. Nevertheless, since that season, no
defenseman in the league has as many goals scored as Chara (198, two more than
Shea Weber). This season, though, the
goal scoring has dried up some. Since
recording a pair of goals on October 25th in a 3-0 win over the
Philadelphia Flyers, Chara is without a goal, a streak of 22 games. The last goal he scored on the road came in
Game 2 of the season when he scored in a 4-0 win over the Buffalo Sabres, the
only other game in which he has a goal this season (Chara scoring seems to have
some relationship to Bruin shutouts this season).
It is hardly surprising that as Chara nears his 42nd
birthday (March 18th), his scoring has fallen off, but fallen off it
has. After posting nine straight seasons
of 40 or more points between the Ottawa Senators and the Bruins (from 2003-2004
through 2013-2014, not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season), he has not
hit the 40-point mark in four seasons preceding this one and topped 30 points
once (37 points in 2015-2016). He has
already missed 19 games this season to a knee injury, a likely contributor to
his 3-4-7, even, scoring line in 32 games played. While not quite the minutes eater he was
earlier in his career, this season to date continues an unbroken string of
seasons this century (since 1999-2000, in fact) in which he averaged more than
20 minutes per game (20:46 per game this season). In 71 career games against the Caps, Chara is
7-19-26, plus-1. Of note, Chara has
scored only one regular season career goal in 34 games in Washington, that
coming in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Caps on March 5, 2013.
Washington: Dmitry Orlov
Last season, Dmitry Orlov was second to John Carlson among
Capitals defensemen in goals (10, to Carlson’s 15), points (31, to Carlson’s
68), and game-winning goals (two, to Carlson’s four). He was a plus-10 and dressed for all 82
games. He added another pair of goals
and eight points in the postseason run to the Stanley Cup. He was a solid top-four defenseman for last
year’s champs. This season, things have
not gone nearly as well. Orlov has
appeared in all 51 games (the only Capitals defenseman to do so), but his
3-12-15, minus-11, scoring line his running behind last season. He has struggled more since
mid-December. After recording an assist
in a 4-3 win over the Buffalo Sabres on December 15th to give him
three points over a five-game span, Orlov is 1-2-3, minus-8, in 19 games. That goal is his only goal over his last 34
games despite recording 38 shots on goal (2.6 percent shooting). If Orlov is getting a lot of ice time, it
might not be a good sign. The Caps are
0-3-1 in the four games this season in which he skated more than 25
minutes. In 16 such games in his career,
the Caps are 5-7-4. Orlov is 0-6-6,
plus-6, in 17 career games against Boston.
In the end…
In physics, it is Newton’s First Law of Motion (an object in
motion stays in motion unless acted upon by an external force). In gaming, it is “bet the streak.” Someday, an external force will act upon the
Capitals-Bruins rivalry. Someday, the
bettor betting the streak will lose. But
14 games? In a row? Since 2014?
Make it 15.
Capitals 4 – Bruins 2
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