The Washington Capitals wrapped up Week 21 by putting the
last of their six-game road trip, their longest of the season, on the
books. It was up and down, inconsistent,
and ultimately, leaning to disappointing.
Meanwhile, the team made three personnel moves, one of which was
surprising, the others reminiscent of a move they made last year that was among
the most consequential in recent team history.
It was part of a season in which the Caps are hoping history, in many
respect, repeats itself.
Record: 2-2-0
A pair of 3-2 wins, a pair of 5-2 losses. That the Caps got out of the week with four
points might be considered fortunate, the team not particularly explosive on
offense and woefully inconsistent on defense.
The two three-goal losses are particularly disturbing on one level, not
so much on another. The two three-goal
losses brought the Caps’ season total to 12 such decisions. Only five times since 2005-2006 have they
posted more, and they are threatening to hit the high-water mark since they
returned to the playoffs in 2001-2008 (17, in 2011-2012). On the other hand, they are on a pace to
finish with 16 such losses which would not look a lot different than the 14
they posted last season on their way to a Stanley Cup. And note, four of those losses by three or
more goals came in the Caps’ last 20 games last season.
Then there are those two one-goal wins. That brought their total this season to
15. Only twice in 13 previous seasons
have the Caps recorded fewer one-goal wins, nine in 2006-2007 and 13 in the
abbreviated 48-game season in 2012-2013.
On the other hand, they are on a pace to finish with 20 one-goal wins,
which would match their total from last season.
On the good side, the Caps have only four one-goal losses in regulation
this season, at the moment the fewest they have recorded since 2005-2006.
Caps fans had better hope that there is not a regression to
a mean with respect to one-goal decisions.
At week’s end the Caps found themselves in the familiar second-place
spot in the Metropolitan Division that they have occupied for a while now. However, they have only a three-point lead on
the Pittsburgh Penguins, who sit in ninth place in the Eastern Conference, the
highest-ranked non-playoff eligible team at the moment.
Offense: 2.50/game (season: 3.29/9th)
The Caps were consistently mediocre on offense against teams
with mediocre scoring defenses in Week 21.
That the Caps did not score more than three, nor fewer than two goals
against the likes of Anaheim (16th in scoring defense at the end of the
week), Buffalo (17th), Los Angeles (19th), was
disappointing. Even scoring three
against the eighth-ranked Toronto Maple Leaf scoring defense was somewhat
disappointing, given that the Caps jumped on Toronto for two goals in the
second period, but had to rely on a shorthanded goal, the first that they
scored on the road this season, for their winning margin.
One problem on offense for the Caps was the utter lack of
balance. Half of the team’s goals for
the week were posted by Alex Ovechkin (five).
Those five goals extended his goals scored streak to five games, and he
has goals in six of his last seven contests (seven goals overall). When he scored the game’s first goal against
the Anaheim Ducks in the first game of the week, he became the fourth player in
NHL history to record ten 40-goal seasons in his first 14 years in the
league. He is tied with Marcel Dionne
and Mario Lemieux for the second-most 40-goal seasons (ten), trailing only
Wayne Gretzky (12). Ovechkin and Lemieux
are the only players in history with ten or more 40-goal seasons for one
franchise.
Brett Connolly was the other Capital with a multi-goal week,
posting goals in consecutive games in Los Angeles and in Toronto. Perhaps not coincidentally, those were the Caps’
wins for the week, illustrating the benefits of secondary scoring. After that, it was Wilson (shorthanded
game-winner against Toronto), Andre Burakovsky (his first goal in more than two
weeks), and John Carlson (his first goal since before the All-Star Game break).
The overall lack of production and absence of balance were
not especially surprising, given the Caps’ inability to get pucks to the
net. They averaged only 26.8 shots on
goal for the week. If there was anything
odd about that, it was that while Ovechkin finished with 21 of the 107 total
shots on goal, it was Nicklas Backstrom who finished second (15). Backstrom has been shooting in bad luck. He does not have a goal since before the
All-Star Game break and is 0-for-32 shooting over his last 12 games.
Defense: 3.50/game (season: 3.18/23rd)
When the ledger was closed on Week 21, the Caps had allowed
five goals in a game twice more, bringing their total for the season to 16
games allowing five or more goals. Only
five teams have allowed five goals in more games, and no other playoff-eligible
team at the end of the week allowed that many or more goals more than 13 times
(San Jose, St. Louis). That might not be
surprising, either, the Caps allowing opponents an average of 36.8 shots per
game for the week. Every team the Caps played for the week
out-shot their season averages.
That the Caps had a shot differential at 5-on-5 for the week
of minus-49 was not surprising in this context.
What was surprising was that they finished with the second worst shot
differential to the team in front of them in the division standings. The New York Islanders were a minus-68 in
only three games. This might be an
emerging issue for this team (and one they might hope will be addressed by the
personnel moves this week). The Caps
have been a “minus” team in 5-on-5 shot differential in seven straight games
(in four of which going minus-10 or worse) and 11 of their last 13 games. Only once since New Years have the Caps been
plus-10 or better than their opponent on the road (at Detroit on January 6th)
and only five times all season.
Goaltending: 3.27 / .911 (season: 3.02 / .907 / 3 shutouts)
The split in games – three for Braden Holtby and one for
Pheonix Copley – was expected. The
results were expected, to a point.
Holtby (.907 save percentage) and Copley (.929) were close to or better
than their save percentages over the season.
However, Holtby in particular had a difficult week. He faced more than ten shots in seven of the
nine periods in which he played, more than 15 shots twice. For the week he faced an average of 39.6
shots per 60 minutes. It is one thing to
thrive, as Holtby seems to do, with heavy shot volume, but this was just too
many shots faced. And, it had the predictable
results over periods. He had a .951 save
percentage in the first periods of games for the week, .903 in the second
periods of games, and a .870 save percentage in the third periods of games.
Nevertheless, here is
another emerging issue. Holtby has not
won consecutive appearances since early January. Since those wins over Detroit and Boston,
Holtby is 4-6-2, 3.45, .898 in 14 appearances (two no decisions).
If these numbers do not improve, the Caps might find themselves fighting
for their playoff lives before the season is over.
On the other hand, Copley won his third straight decision
when he backstopped the 3-2 win over Los Angeles last Monday. The three-game winning streak is his longest
in the 2019 portion of the season in nine appearances. It was his 22nd appearance of the
season. While he does not appear in a
position to challenge Philipp Grubauer’s 35 appearances last season as a
backup/sometime number one netminder, is on a pace to challenge being only the
third Capitals backup goaltender to appear in 30 or more games since the
2005-2006 season (in addition to Grubauer, Brent Johnson appeared in 30 games
behind Olaf Kolzig’s 54 games in 2006-2007).
Power Play: 3-for-10/30.0 percent (season: 21.5 percent/12th)
On the plus side, there is that 30 percent conversion rate
on the power play in Week 21. It is only
the second week in the last ten that the Caps converted 30 percent or more of
their power play chances. On minus side,
there are those ten chances in four games.
The power play opportunities track with the offense generally, not more
than three, nor fewer than two in any of the four games over the week. Again, though, it was an uneven
performance. The Caps recorded two of
those power play goals – both by Alex Ovechkin (on the only power play shots
the Caps recorded in the game) – on two chances against Los Angeles and went
1-for-8 otherwise. And, Ovechkin had
that power play goal, too (against Toronto).
The three power play goals for the week gave Ovechkin 14 for the season,
tied for fourth in the league with Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. Four of Ovechkin’s last seven goals have come
on power plays.
The Caps were reasonably efficient, if unbalanced. Ovechkin was 3-for-6 on power play shots, the
rest of the team going 0-for-8. The 14
shots on goal came in 16:01 of power play ice time.
Penalty Killing: 10-for-13/76.9 percent (season: 78.6
percent/22nd)
It was, more or less, a typical penalty killing week in
terms of efficiency. The 13 shorthanded
situations faced, however, leaned on the high side of volume. That should not be surprising. The Caps finished the week with the
sixth-highest number of shorthanded situations faced on the road (106). It mattered, at least coincidentally. The Caps lost both games for the week in
which they faced four shorthanded situation, and they won the other two in
which they faced fewer than four. It
also happened to be in those two games in which they allowed those three power
play goals – two to Anaheim and one to Buffalo in a pair of 5-2 losses.
There was the shorthanded goal scored by Tom Wilson, though,
which was the game-winner against Toronto.
It was the first shorthanded goal scored by the Caps on the road this
season and the fourth time in four games in which they had one that the Caps
won.
It was a case of just a little too much opportunity for
opponents. The Caps spent 23:27 killing
penalties for the week and allowed 21 shots.
More than 13 minutes of the shorthanded ice time was spent in the two
losses. Going short had its
consequences.
Faceoffs: 80-for-206 / 38.8 percent (season: 45.8 percent/31st)
There is bad, and there is whatever Week 21 was for the Caps
in the faceoff circle. Over a population
of draws, winning percentage does not mean much. But like insurance, you don’t need it until
you need it, and if the Caps find themselves faced with an important draw late
in, say, a postseason game, there isn’t anything in their performance to date
to suggest they can draw on that skill for an advantage.
The Caps were under 50 percent in three of the four games
and in all three zones for the week, but the most disturbing part was the
individual performances. Five Caps took
at least ten draws for the week, and only Nic Dowd finished over 50
percent. Better still, he was over 65
percent in the ends (66.7 percent in the offensive end, 69.2 percent in the
defensive end). After that, though, things
took a turn. Only T.J. Oshie topped 40
percent for the week, barely (41.2 percent).
The most disturbing of all, though, was Evgeny Kuznetsov who, even by
his standards, had a ghastly week. No
Capital took more draws for the week (62), but he won barely 30 percent of them
and was under 30 percent in the offensive zone.
Relying on puck retrieval was a non-starter here, since Kuznetsov had
only one point in four games for the week.
Goals by Period:
Third periods are just killing this team. They had an edge in the first period of
games, and they had an edge in the second periods of games, but they were
throttled in the third periods of the four contests, allowing nine of the 14
goals allowed for the week. Washington
finished the week with a minus-21 goal differential in third periods this
season, the second-worst goal differential in third periods in the league (Florida
is minus-24). The 76 goals allowed in
the third periods of games puts the Caps on a pace to allow the most third
period goals in their history since 2005-2006 (they allowed 93 third period
goals in 2005-2006, when they lost 41 games and finished with only 70 standings
points). If they should hit the 100
third period goals allowed mark, it would be the first time they did so since
1992-1993 (103).
Year-over-Year:
The difference in wins and losses this season is Saturday’s
loss to Buffalo. Had the Caps won that
game, they would have precisely the same record this year as last through 62
games (35-20-7). As it is, their scoring
is up a bit, but so are the goals allowed, perhaps a function of more scoring
generally across the league. Special
teams differences between last year and this continue to be small. In other respects, the Caps are putting up
higher volumes in other measures this season, both good and bad, with the
exception of penalties/penalty minutes, which continue to track below last year’s
pace.
In the end…
In the prognosto to Saturday’s game against Buffalo, we
stated, “Going 3-3 on a road trip is not the worst outcome, given the length of
the trip. However, how a team gets there
matters. If the Caps get there by losing
to the Sabres, a struggling team at the moment, it would be a disappointment.” The Caps lost, not really making much of a
game of it, and it was a disappointment.
But more to the point, they lost a chance to keep pace with the New York
Islanders, who shut out Vancouver to take a four-point lead with a game in hand
on the Capitals. It makes the short
two-game home stand coming up this week especially important, since upon
completing it, the Caps head to Long Island to take on the Isles to begin the
March schedule.
In that respect, it makes for finding out in short order how
well the personnel moves will address weakness and production issues. Devante Smith-Pelly, one of the heroes of the 2018 postseason run, was waived and sent to Hershey when he cleared, a casualty of weak performance over the past couple of months. Then there were the additions – Carl Hagelin (obtained in trade from Los Angeles) and
Nick Jensen (obtained in trade from Detroit) -- who need to hit the ground running (or the ice skating) to fit in and shore up some of
the weaknesses (penalty killing, third period performance, possession) as the
stretch run begins in earnest. The Caps hope that those two under-the-radar moves recreate the success they had in obtaining defenseman Michal Kempny last season in a trade that stands as one of the most important in the recent history of the franchise.
Three Stars:
- First Star: Alex Ovechkin (5-0-5, plus-1, 3 PPG, 21 shots, 30 shot attempts, 12 hits, became fourth player in NHL history with ten 40-goal seasons, became 14th player in league history to reach the 650 career goal mark)
- Second Star: Tom Wilson (1-1-2, plus-2, SH/GWG, 14 PIMs, reached 30-point mark for second straight season)
- Third Star: Brett Connolly (2-0-2), minus-2, tied career high in goals scored (15, equaling total in each of previous two seasons))
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