The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
For the first and only time in the regular season, the
Washington Capitals will play a home-and-home set of games against an
opponent. It might be fitting that the
opponent for these two games will be the Carolina Hurricanes, against whom the
Caps have played 86 home and 86 road games since the teams first met, Carolina
in their previous incarnation as the Hartford Whalers, back in 1979 (in keeping
with the balanced history of these teams, that first game ended in a 3-3 tie).
When the Caps beat the Philadelphia Flyers on Sunday, it
brought the Caps even over their last seven games (3-3-1) and allowed them to
retain their lead in the Metropolitan Division, albeit by the thinnest of
margins, a single point ahead of the New York Islanders.
Meanwhile, the Carolina Hurricanes are one of the best teams
in the league at the moment. The ‘Canes
last lost consecutive games in regulation in mid-January, and since dropping a
4-1 decision to the Ottawa Senators for a second straight loss on January 18th,
Carolina is 20-6-2. That is the
third-best record in the league over that span, trailing only the St. Louis
Blues (20-6-3) and the Tampa Bay Lightning (22-4-2).
It might be coincidental, but the Hurricanes’ good fortune
with this 28-game run seems to coincide with the acquisition of forward Nino
Niederreiter from the Minnesota Wild for Victor Rask on January 17th.
Over the 20-6-2 run, Niederreiter leads the team in goals (12) and is third in
points (24). He is tied with Justin
Williams for the team lead in power play goals over that span (three), and his
six power play points ranks third. He
has even shown a talent for pilferage, ranking second to Sebastien Aho among
forwards in takeaways over those 28 games (22).
Niederreiter might have found a home in Carolina. A former fifth-overall draft pick of the New
York Islanders (2010), he played in only 64 games for the Isles over two
seasons and managed only two goals and three points. He was traded to the Minnesota Wild in June
2013 for forward Cal Clutterbuck and a 2013 third round draft pick. In five-plus seasons with the Wild, he was a
durable player (three games missed) and a productive one (110 goals and 228
points in 434 games), but ultimately, he was an expendable one who made his way
to Carolina in that January trade with the Hurricanes. Niederreiter already holds a place in NHL
history as the all-time leading goal scorer among players born in Switzerland
(124). In 13 career games against the
Caps, he is 5-2-7, minus-1.
Another player from somewhere else who might have found a
home in Carolina is forward Teuvo Teravainen.
He leads the team in points over the 20-6-2 run (32) and in power play
points (nine). Teravainen is another
first-round pick of another team, having been drafted 18th overall
by the Chicago Blackhawks in the 2012 entry draft. Caps fans might remember that Washington
passed over Teravainen to take Tom Wilson with the 16th overall pick
in that draft. He spent parts of three
seasons with the Blackhawks and never seem to find a fit. In 117 games with
Chicago, he managed only 17 goals and 44 points in 115 games, somewhat
disappointing given his widely thought of skill level. He was traded to Carolina in June 2016 with
Bryan Bickell for a 2016 second-round draft pick and a 2017 third-round pick.
Teravainen has found the Hurricanes more to his liking,
posting a career-high 15 goals and 42 points in his first season in Carolina,
and then besting both last season (23 goals, 64 points). He is on a pace to challenge for another
career high in goals (he has 19), and he already has new career highs in
assists (51) and points (70). Teravainen
is 4-8-12, plus-2, in 12 career games against Washington.
It would appear that after six seasons toiling largely as a
backup in Detroit and a brief, unimpressive stint with the Philadelphia Flyers to
end last season, goalie Petr Mrazek has (yes, him too) found a home, or at
least an accommodating environment in Carolina.
Currently in the walk year of his contract, a one-year/$1.5 million deal
with the Hurricanes, Mrazek might be in the best stretch of his career. In the Hurricanes’ 28-game run, he has had 15
starts and has posted a record of 11-3-1, 2.07, .927, with three shutouts. He has not allowed more than three goals in
any of his last 11 appearances, going 9-2-0, 1.63, and those three shutouts.
But don’t discount Curtis McElhinney. He has had 12 starts in this 28-game stretch
and is 8-3-1, 2.57, .915, with two shutouts.
But here is the thing. Mrazek
seems to be “Mr. Home,” while McElhinney is “Mr. Away.” In the Hurricanes’ last 28 games, Mrazek is
5-1-0, 1.65, .943, with one shutout at home, and McElhinney is 4-0-1, 1.97,
.933 with two shutouts on the road.
Mrazek is 3-4-2, 2.46, .920, with one shutout in nine career appearances
against the Caps, while McElhinney is 1-4-0, 3.76, .868 in eight career games
against Washington.
1. In their 20-6-2
run, Carolina has been a better team on the road (11-2-2/24 points/2nd
in the league) than at home (9-4-0/18 points/13th).
2. Carolina’s home power
play in this 28-game stretch (6.7 percent/2-for-30) is second-worst in the
league. Their road power play over that
same span (11-for-49/22.4 percent) ranks 12th.
3. The Hurricanes are 36-for-40 killing penalties on the
road in this stretch (90.0 percent/fourth), but just 29-for-35 (82.8 percent/tied
for 12th) on the road.
4. Carolina’s goal
differential at home in the 28-game run is plus-11. On the road, it is plus-21.
5. One area where
Carolina has been consistent between home and road is shot attempts. Their shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 is 55.06
percent on the road in their 28-game run, best in the league. At home over the same stretch, the Hurricanes
are 53.50 percent, 11th.
1. The Caps did some
fine-tuning at the trading deadline with the acquisitions of defenseman Nick
Jennsen and forward Carl Hagelin. Since
the deadline, the Cap shave been almost equally successful at home (9-2-2/20
points/third in the league) as on the road (8-5-0/16 points/tied for seventh).
2. The post-deadline
offense has been more successful at home (48 goals) than on the road (40), as
has the scoring defense, which has 34 goals allowed at home (tied for 12th
fewest) and 38 on the road (18th fewest).
3. The Caps have been
less powerful at home than on the road on the power play since the deadline. At home they are 7-for-41 (17.1 percent/18th),
but they are 8-for-35 on the road (22.9 percent/tied for tenth).
4. Penalty killing
for the Caps follows that same weak-home/strong-road patter since the deadline –
32-for-40 at home (80.0 percent/17th) and 32-for-37 on the road (86.5
percent/eighth)
5. It extends to
shot-attempts, too. At home, Washington
is 50.20 percent (20th) since the trading deadline, but they are 51.33
percent (fifth) on the road.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Carolina: Justin Faulk
It might seem like only yesterday that Justin Faulk was a 19-year
old rookie battling against the Caps in the Southeast Division in 2011-2012 and
finishing seventh in the Calder Trophy voting for top rookie that season, but
now he is an eight-year NHL veteran, all of it with Carolina, and he is
climbing the rankings of all-time franchise defensemen. Only two defensemen in team history have
dressed for more games than Faulk (552): Glen Wesley (913) and Adam Burt
(626). He is the all-time leader among
defensemen in goals scored (82), by a large margin over second-place Wesley
(51). His 254 points is tops among
defensemen to play for the franchise, as are his 38 power play goals and 17
game-winners.
The blemish on his record as a Hurricane is that he is a
minus-100, the worst plus-minus ranking among any skater in team history. In that context, this is one of, if not his
best season of his career. His scoring
is a bit down, his 8-23-31 line to date matching precisely his scoring line of
last season, and he does not carry quite the load of ice time he did with
weaker teams (a second straight season of 22 minutes per game after five
straight seasons averaging more than 23 minutes per game). But he is a plus-9 this season, the best of
his career, after going minus-85 over the previous four seasons. Faulk has not gone consecutive games without
a point in more than a month, and since the last time he did, he is 3-8-11,
plus-5, in 17 games. He is 4-8-12,
minus-3, in 30 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Brooks Orpik
At this stage of his career, and especially with the Caps,
there are no numbers that are likely to impress the faithful with respect to
Brooks Orpik. He is not much of an
offensive player (and never has been), and his underlying numbers (shot
attempt-for percentage at 5-on-5, ratio of takeaways to giveaways) are not impressive. However, much as it pains the empirical
crowd, there is another element that cannot be entirely discounted. The Caps added a defenseman at the trading
deadline (Nick Jensen), they have lost one to injury, perhaps until the
postseason (Michal Kempny), and to others have had intermittent struggles this
season (the Matt Niskanen/Dmitry Orlov pair).
John Carlson has had another strong season, especially in the offensive
end, but there is something to be said for a veteran defensive defenseman who
seems to have an ability to manage a locker room.
And it is not as if he has been entirely silent in the
offensive end, at least by his standards.
He has two goals, his first two since he posted his career high of three
in 2015-2016 with the Caps. He has eight
points in 47 games, almost matching the total he had in 81 games last
season. He is a plus-3, an improvement
on the minus-9 he had last season. However,
he does seem to be in a bit of a difficult stretch. He does not have a point in his last nine
games and is plus-1. Orpik is 1-11-12,
plus-6, in 48 career games against Carolina.
In the end…
These games come at an interesting time for both teams. If the Caps sweep them, it gets the Caps to
100 points, and it would put them in a decent position to cement their divisional
lead. If Carolina sweeps, it would all
but clinch a postseason spot, even if Columbus keeps winning. A split, and things remain murky for both
teams as they head into the last days of the regular season. Much of the season in Washington has been the
carryover of a celebration of the Stanley Cup champion, while in Carolina it has
been marked by “surges,” both in performance on the ice and in post-game antics. Leave the choreography for the game against the Flyers on Saturday, 'Canes fans.
Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2 (Tuesday)
Capitals 3 – Hurricanes 1 (Thursday)
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