The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals take the ice on Wednesday night in
their 45th season opener, visiting the Stanley Cup Champion St.
Louis Blues. It is the third season in
the last four in which the Caps will play after a banner raising in a season
opener – 2016-2017 in Pittsburgh, 2018-2019 for their own banner raising, and
Wednesday in St. Louis for the Blues’ celebration.
The team that the Caps will face on Opening Night was a very
different team ending the season than it was starting it last year. The Blues started the season slowly, going
2-4-3 in their first nine games, and when the record reached 7-9-3 in
mid-November, the team relieved head coach Mike Yeo of his duties and turned
control over to Craig Berube. The
ex-Capital did have some head coaching experience, taking over an 0-3-0
Philadelphia Flyers team in 2013-2014 and coaching the club for the remainder
of that season and the following one, posting a 75-58-28 record over 161 games,
plus a first round seven-game playoff exit in 2013-2014.
Berube did not start particularly well with a record of
10-11-1 over his first 22 games. However, starting with a 4-2 win over the
Montreal Canadiens that started the team’s first three-game winning streak of
the season, the Blues closed with a
28-8-5 record over the last half of their regular season schedule, the best
record in the league over that stretch.
One player who took off over the second half of the season
for the Blues was winger Vladimir Tarasenko.
After a somewhat lackluster first half in which he went 12-12-24,
minus-14, in 40 games, he was 21-23-44, plus-22 in 36 games played in the
second half. He had points in 26 of
those last 36 games, 14 of them multi-point games. Six of those multi-point games came in his
last dozen contests, including his last three to close the regular season. Tarasenko has been a thorn in the Caps’
sides, going 8-2-10, plus-8, in ten career games against Washington.
If Tarasenko dominated the scoring for the Blues in the
second half from a forward position, St. Louis got balance from their
defensemen. Three blueliners played the
last half of the schedule posting more than 15 points apiece. Alex Pietrangelo led the group with an
8-18-26, plus-8 scoring line in 41 games in the second half. Pietrangelo is one of those players who
always seems to lurk a level below those considered “elite” at his position,
always putting up solid, if not “Norris-worthy” numbers. In nine full seasons with the Blues (he saw
limited action in his first two seasons), Pietrangelo has never averaged less
than a half-point per game. He, Dustin
Byfuglien, and Keith Yandle are the only defensemen to have done so in each of
the last nine seasons (minimum: 40 games per season). Over those nine seasons, he is in the top-ten
among all NHL defensemen in goals (ninth: 92), assists (tenth: 303), points (ninth:
395), and game-winning goals (fifth: 22).
While he has received votes for the Norris Trophy in seven of the last
nine years, he has never been a finalist, his highest finish being fourth in
2011-2012. In 14 career games against
the Caps, Pietrangelo is 2-6-8, plus-2.
1. The Blues reached
the Stanley Cup final in each of their first three seasons in the league:
1967-68 through 1969-1970. Those were
years in which the newly expanded NHL had two divisions, one comprised of
Original Six clubs and the other made up the six expansion teams. After those first three seasons, the Blues
did not reach the Stanley Cup final until doing so, and winning, last season.
2. Over the ten
seasons over which the NHL has data on shot attempts, St. Louis has the fifth-best
shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 on home ice (53.12 percent). In those ten seasons, the Blues have never
finished a season overall under 50 percent.
3. With two points in
this game Alex Pietrangelo would become the 12th player in Blues
history to record 400 points with the club.
4. St. Louis was one
of eight teams to win three games in the Gimmick on home ice last season.
5. Only four teams in
the league last season allowed fewer power play opportunities on home ice than
the Blues (107): New York Islanders (103), Buffalo Sabres (102), Columbus Blue
Jackets (93), and the Toronto Maple Leafs (92).
1. When the Caps lost
to the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round of the playoffs last spring, it
was their earliest exit from a postseason for which they qualified since bowing
out in the first round in 2012-2013 to the New York Rangers. In five of the
last six instances in which the Caps were eliminated from the playoffs, they
suffered defeat in seven games.
2. Last season was
the fourth in 14 seasons since 2005-2006 that the team finished under 80
percent in penalty killing (78.9 percent) and the first time over a full
82-game schedule since 2009-2010 (78.8 percent). They were at 77.9 percent in the 48-game
2012-2013 season.
3. Last year’s Caps
were not the offensive juggernaut of the 2019-2010 season that averaged 3.82
goals per game, most in the post 2004-2005 lockout era until Tampa Bay finished
with a 3.89 goals per game average last year.
But the 3.34 goals per game the Caps averaged last season was second to
that 2009-2010 team.
4. The 3.02 goals
allowed per game last season by the Caps were the most allowed per game since
they allowed 3.35 goals per game in 2006-2007.
5. Last season the
Caps had 236 power play chances. The is
the fewest they had for a full 82-game schedule since the league went to an
82-game schedule in 1995-1996.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
St. Louis: Ryan O’Reilly
Center Ryan O’Reilly did not come into the NHL with a lot of
hoopla. He was a second round pick (33rd
overall) of the Colorado Avalanche in 2009, taken between Landon Ferraro by the
Detroit Red Wings and Carl Klingberg by the Atlanta Thrashers. Combined, those two appeared in 89 career NHL
games. Meanwhile, O’Reilly jumped right
into the Colorado lineup and progressed smartly, becoming a reliable two way
player in his six years in Colorado (three seasons over 50 points; five times
earning votes for the Selke Trophy as top defensive forward). His stay in Denver was not without its
moments, a contract impasse upon his becoming a restricted free agent after the
2011-2012 season perhaps the most important off ice matter.
O’Reilly re-upped with the Avs, but after the 2014-2015
season he was traded to the Buffalo Sabres with Jamie McGinn for Nikita
Zadorov, Mikhail Grigorenko, J.T. Compher and a second-round pick in the 2015
Entry Draft. He spent three seasons with
the Sabres before he was on the move again, despite having signed a seven-year
deal with the club in July 2015, traded to the Blues in July 2018 for Patrik
Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, Tage Thompson, a first-round pick in 2019 Entry
Draft and a second- round pick in the 2021 Entry Draft.
He seems to have found a home for the time being in St.
Louis. In his first year with the Blues last
season, O’Reilly was second on the club in goals scored (28) and led the team
in points (77). He also led the team in
plus-minus rating (plus-22) power play points (22), shorthanded points (three),
game-winning goals (five, tied with VVladimir Tarasenko and Brayden Schenn),
and ice time among forwards (20:46 per game, the only forward to average more
than 20 minutes per game). O’Reilly is
0-9-9, even, in 18 career games against Washington.
Washington: Dmitry Orlov
So, who will it be?
Radko Gudas, Nick Jensen, a defenseman to be named at game time? The question of who will be Dmitry Orlov’s
defensive partner is one of those unsettled matters for which coaches get paid
big bucks to settle. Orlov spent most of
the last few seasons on Matt Niskanen’s left, but Niskanen skates now with the
Philadelphia Flyers, traded for Gudas this past summer. What complicates Orlov’s situation is an
almost bizarre inability to put pucks in the net. He finished last season with three goals, his
lowest for a full season for his career.
He did offset that with 26 assists, one off his career high of 27 in
2016-2017, but other parts of his game slipped a bit, too. He finished with a plus-3 rating, his worst
since he was minus-1 in 54 games in 2013-2014.
He had one power play assist, and while he does not generally get much
power play time, that lone power play point was the fewest he had since posting
a single power play point (an assist) in the 2013-2014 season. And, his shooting was down almost 20 percent
from 125 shots on goal in 2017-2018 to 101 shots on goal last season. His ice time dropped a minute and a half per
game, from 23:08 in 2017-2018 to 21:38 last year.
It seems obvious, but the key for Orlov might be in avoiding
the sort of slow start he had last season, going 0-2-2, minus-8, in his first
16 games. And the year before, where he
was 0-2-2,minus-3, in his first 17 games.
And the year before that, where he had one goal in his first 36
games. In ten career games against the
Blues, Orlov is 0-5-5, minus-1.
In the end…
Other teams get more attention from the national media that
the Capitals and the Blues, but these two teams demonstrated their resilience
in the face of adversity the past two seasons, the Caps fighting off a slow
postseason start to win 16 of their last 22 playoff games to with the Stanley
Cup, while the Blues climbed out of the league cellar mid-way through the
regular season to storm into the playoffs and ground out four series wins on
the way to their own championship. A
matchup of the last two Stanley Cup champions is a fine way to kick off the new
season.
Capitals 4 – Blues 2
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