The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals return home on Saturday night to
host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a rematch of the clubs who met last Saturday
night in Tampa, where the Caps skated to a 5-2 win. The Caps continue to set the pace in the league
standings and going into their game in New Jersey against the Devils on Friday
night were 8-2-0 in their last ten games, 21-4-3 in their last 28 games since
opening the season with a 3-2-2 start.
The Lightning have been stumbling of late, going 5-5-2 in their last
dozen games and find themselves on the outside looking in at playoff
contention, although they trail third place Buffalo in the Atlantic Division by
only one point with three games in hand going into Friday's games.
Then and Now…
Saturday will mark the 131st meeting of these
teams in the all-time regular season series.
The Caps re 81-33-10 (six ties) overall and 44-12-5 (four ties) on home
ice. Since 2005-2006, Washington is
45-17-10 against the Lightning overall and 26-5-5 on home ice.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
When Nikita Kucherov finished last season with 128 points
and the Art Ross Trophy, it was the highest point total for an NHL player since
Mario Lemieux posted 161 points in 1995-1996 (for good measure, teammate
Jaromir Jagr added 149 points that season).
That Kucherov also won the Hart (most valuable player) and Lindsay
(outstanding player) Trophies, as well has being named as a first team NHL All
Star, was no surprise. But it was
something else, too. It was the sixth
season in an uninterrupted improvement in scoring for Kucherov. Starting with 18 points in his first season
in 2013-2014, he progressed to 65, then 66, then 85, and then 100 points in
2017-2018 before his explosion last season.
But here is the thing about Ross Trophy winners. They’re in the lineup to put up those
points. Since 2005-2006, the 14 Ross
Trophy winners played every game in ten of those seasons, including the 48
games of the abbreviated 2012-2013 season when Martin St. Louis won his Ross
Trophy (60 points). No Ross Trophy
winner over those 14 seasons missed more than seven games (Evgeni Malkin in
2011-2012; 109 points in 75 games).
Kucherov has missed only one game so far this season, but his season
after is different from others in another important respect. With 36 points in 33 games, his 1.09 points
per game is only 70 percent of his points per game last year (1.56). That yield compared to the Ross-winning
season is the second lowest in the last 14 seasons (St. Louis posted 0.85
points per game in the season following his Ross win, 68 percent of what he
posted in his Ross Trophy season the year before). That is no doubt a function of just how
dominant Kucherov was last season in an historical context, but his fall off
has also been accompanied by a falloff in the Lightning’s overall performance. Kucherov is 11-11-22, plus-3, in 19 career
games against the Capitals.
If Ondrej Palat ever lasts an entire season, he might be
quite a producer. As it is, he has been
a reliable mid-teens, 45-50 point player in his six full NHL seasons preceding
this one. However, the important word in
that previous sentence is “full.” Those
seasons have not been so full for the most part. He dressed for 81 games in his first full
season, going 23-36-59, perhaps a harbinger of things to come. But in the next five seasons he missed a
total of 78 games to a variety of upper and lower body injuries. Even with the injuries and the absences,
Palat is one of seven players in Lightning history to post at least 30 points
in six of his first seven seasons, which matches that of his more renowned teammate
Kucherov.
Palat would seem to be a good bet to make it seven times in
eight seasons this year, having posted 18 points in 33 games to date. It is the 33 games, though, that is the key
number here, Palat having dressed for every game on the schedule to date. It is just a bit hard at the moment to know
in what direction Palat is going, hot or cold.
In his most recent 11 games going into Thursday night’s game against
Dallas, he had one point, that being a goal on a total of 32 shots on
goal. Against Dallas, though, he had a
goal and an assist in the Lightning’s 4-3 overtime loss to the Stars. It was only the second time this season in
nine games in which Palat scored a goal that Tampa Bay lost (7-1-1). One indicator of success regarding Palat
might be his ice time. In 18 games in
which he skated less than 17:30, the Lightning are 11-5-2, while in the 15
games he skated more than 17:30 they are 6-7-2.
Palat is 3-5-8, even, in 14 career games against the Caps.
Andrei Vasilevskiy might need a break in goal. He faced only 20 shots on Thursday night
against Dallas, but he allowed four goals in the overtime loss. That makes for a three-game slide, starting
with the Lightning’s 5-2 loss to the Caps last weekend, over which he stopped
only 70 of 81 shots, a .864 save percentage.
He is on his longest streak of games under .900 in save percentage this
season (three). If he is given a break,
the goaltending duties will fall to Curtis McElhinney, who has had eight starts
for the Lightning this season (3-3-2, 3.62, .898).
Playing in his first year in Tampa, McElhinney is playing
for his eighth NHL team. At none of those
eight stops over a 12-year career did he appear in more than 35 games, except
for Columbus (85 games). And, his career
totals might be considered the epitome of the “Everyman” goalie: 85-85-17,
2.85, .909, with ten shutouts. Good
enough to be a backup with some level of interest among NHL teams, never enough
to be a number one (he has never appeared in more than 33 games in a
season). This season, despite the
occasional start, he has been streaky, losing his first three appearances
(0-1-2), winning his next three (3-0-0), and going into the weekend a loser in
his last two appearances (0-2-0).
McElhinney is 1-3-0, 3.92, .872 in six career appearances against the
Caps.
1. Last season, Tampa
had two instances all year in which they lost consecutive games (Games 17 and
18, the only one in which both losses were in regulation, and Games 53 and 54,
both in extra time). They have already had
four instances of consecutive losses this season with a season high three-game
losing streak in Games 22-24 (0-2-1).
2. The Lightning have
the best “net power play (conversions less shorthanded goals allowed)” in the
league at 26.2 percent.
3. Getting off to hot
starts is difficult against the Lightning.
Only two teams have allowed fewer first period goals than Tampa Bay
(24): Dallas (22) and Pittsburgh (20).
On the other hand, Tampa Bay has allowed almost twice as many third
period goals (44) as first period goals.
4. Shot volumes seem
not to matter to the Lightning. They
have eight wins in 17 games when outshooting opponents, eight wins in 15 games
when out-shot by opponents.
5. Blocking shots is
not Tampa Bay’s thing. Their 417 blocked
shots are third-fewest in the league, ahead of only St. Louis (413) and Buffalo
(385).
1. Last season, four
of the Caps’ 26 skaters finished with “minus” ratings. So far this season, that number is six of 24
skaters.
2. Evgeny Kuznetsov
has averaged exactly one point per game over his last three seasons (187 points
in 187 games).
3. The Caps leading
after one period is a better indicator of success (12-0-2/.857 winning percentage),
than leading after two periods (16-1-3/.800).
4. The Caps and San
Jose are the only teams in the league in the top five in minor penalties taken
and major penalties taken. Washington is
fifth in minors (132) and tied for fifth in majors (nine).
5. Getting power
plays is one thing, converting them another.
The Caps have been blanked on the power play on home ice eight times
this season and have a record of 2-2-4 in those games.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos
He is the all-time franchise leader in goals (406) and power
play goals (152), and he ranks third in team history in assists (390) and
points (796). However, while he also
ranks third on the all-time franchise list in games played (776), one has the
haunting feeling that the numbers could be significantly higher for Steven
Stamkos. He missed only three games in
his first five seasons, all of them in his rookie season. But starting with the 2013-2014 season, when
he lost 45 games to a broken leg, Stamkos has missed 122 games. It has mattered in terms of production. He recorded 45 or more goals in three of his
first four seasons and had 29 in 48 games in his fifth season, the abbreviated
2012-2013 season, a 50-goal pace. But
starting with that 2013-2014 season he hit the 45 goal mark only once in six
seasons, that being last year, when he dressed for all 82 games for the first
time since 2014-2015 (he had 43 goals that season).
Stamkos has missed three games so far this season to a lower
body injury, but with 13 goals in 30 games he is still on pace for a 30-plus
goal season. His goal scoring, not
unusual for a goal scorer, has been somewhat streaky. He had four in five games
early in the season before going through a one goal in nine game dry
spell. He followed that up with goals in
consecutive games, and then went another six without one. He had six goals in a four-game goal streak
earlier this month, but he goes into Saturday’s game without one in his last
three games. One thing about Stamkos is
that he remains a lethal power play scorer.
Among active players with at least 300 career goals, only Alex Ovechkin
has scored a higher percentage of his total on power plays (37.6 percent) than
Stamkos (37.4 percent). He is 16-17-33,
minus-19, in 43 career games against the Caps.
Washington: Richard Panik
For Capitals forward Richard Panik, the NHL journey started
with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Drafted in
the second round of the 2009 Entry Draft (52nd overall, three spots
ahead of Caps second rounder Dmitry Orlov), Panik played parts of two seasons
with the Lightning, dressing for 75 games in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 (deep,
deep trivia…his first NHL shot on goal was against the Caps in his second NHL
game in February 2013, and his first NHL multi-goal game was against the Caps
in April 2013). He moved on to Toronto,
then to Chicago, and then to Arizona before settling with the Caps as an
unrestricted free agent last July.
In his career spanning five teams, eight seasons, and 435
games through Friday night, he has been something of an odd, if consistent sort
of player. One might look at a player
with 77 career goals and think his output was limited with respect to how many
teams he victimized on his way to that total.
Not so with Panik. He has spread
those 77 goals among 28 of the league’s 31 teams. Only Los Angeles, New Jersey (pending Friday’s
result against the Devils), and Winnipeg have escaped his goal scoring
touch. He would like to improve on his shooting efficiency. In 25 games to date, his two goals on 32 shots is the lowest shooting percentage of his career (6.3) since his second and final season in Tampa Bay in 2013-2015 (5.4 percent). Panik is 4-4-8, plus-5, in 11
career games against his former team.
In the end…
These are not last year’s Lightning. They remain a formidable offensive squad, but
they allow far too many goals to be considered on the short list of elite teams
this season. Nevertheless, they are deep
in skill, and that is always dangerous.
The Caps have had the Lightning’s number when playing in DC, though,
sporting a record of 23-3-3 in the last 29 games played between the teams in
Washington dating back to March 2007, outscoring the Lightning by a 116-76
margin. Do we hear “24” wins?
Capitals 4 – Lightning 3
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