The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals end their three-game road trip on Monday
night when they visit T-Mobile Arena to face the Vegas Golden Knights. The Caps will be trying to reverse their “February
Fade” of late, going 3-5-0 in their last eight games. Vegas will be skating in the third game of a
five-game home stand having won the first two of those contests, one-goal
decisions over St. Louis (6-5 in overtime) and the New York Islanders (1-0).
Then and Now…
This will be just the sixth meeting of the Caps and Golden
Knights in the all-time series, the Caps posting a 2-3-0 regular season record
against Vegas. The Caps have lost both
of their previous regular season visits to Vegas, 3-0 in the first ever meeting
of the clubs in December 2017, and 5-3 in December 2018.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
Mark Stone has been a hand-in-glove fit for the Golden
Knights since he was obtained in trade from the Ottawa Senators last February with
Tobias Lindberg for Oscar Lindberg, Erik Brannstrom and a 2nd round pick in the
2020 Entry Draft. In 77 games with Vegas
to date, Stone is 25-43-68, plus-14, while averaging just over 14 minutes per
game. With 57 points in 60 games to
date, Stone is on a pace to set a career high in points with 78, which would
eclipse the 73 he posted last year, split between Ottawa and Vegas. The 57 points he has put in the ledger for
this season makes it six seasons in a row that Stone topped the 50-point mark,
and he seems a sure bet to make it five seasons in six to post 60 or more
points. Stone is also a force on the
other side of the puck, finishing second in voting for the Selke Trophy last
season as the league’s top defensive forward, his first time as a finalist for
that award. He is one of four Vegas
forwards this season to average at least two minutes per game on penalty kills,
and he and Reilly Smith are the only Golden Knight forwards to average at least
two minutes per game on both penalty kills and power plays.
Stone has been a more efficient producer on offense on home
ice this season, posting 12 of his 20 goals on home ice and shooting to a 15.8
percent mark, compared to 10.0 percent on the road. When he was held without a point in Vegas’
1-0 win over the New York Islanders on Saturday, it was just the fourth time in
14 home games he did not record a point, going 4-12-16 over that stretch,
including a four-assist game against St. Louis in a 6-5 overtime win last
Thursday. Stone is 4-4-8, plus-4, in 15
career games against the Caps.
Former Capital defenseman Nate Schmidt has had a challenging
season for Vegas. After skating in the
season opener on October 2nd against San Jose, he missed the next 12
games with a lower-body injury. Since
coming back from that injury on Hallowe’en, Schmidt is 7-21-28, plus-1, in 47
games, tied with Shea Theodore for the team lead in goals for defensemen over
that span and second to Theodore in points (34). Not that there is a lot of history with this
franchise so far, but Schmidt is second among 14 defensemen to dress in Vegas’
three seasons in goals scored (21), second in assists (73), second in points (94),
first in plus-minus (plus-43), third in blocked shots (296), and second in
takeaways (131).
Schmidt has been putting up points in pairs lately. He is 3-7-10, plus-3, over his last 11 games,
posting a pair of points three times in that span.
Schmidt has been a minutes eater in the games he has played
in so far, too. He logged at least 20
minutes in 38 of the 48 he skated so far, second on the team this season. His 157 games with at least 20 minutes in
three years with the Golden Knights are most of any skater with the
franchise. Schmidt has only one goal in
his last 18 home games and eight points in that span. Scmidt is 2-2-4, plus-1, in four career games
against the Capitals.
When Marc-Andre Fleury took the ice on February 8th
against the Carolina Hurricanes, he passed Jacques Plante for 13th
place on the all-time list of career games played by a goaltender in the NHL
with his 838th career game.
He and Henrik Lundqvist are staging their own battle in their respective
climbs up the goalie wins ladder, Fleury holding a two-win lead (461 to 459)
over Lundqvist for fifth place on the all-time wins list. When he came over to the Golden Knights from
Pittsburgh in 2017-2018, he immediately became the face of the franchise,
bringing the credibility and gravitas of a Stanley Cup winner, and inspiring
fans and canines alike.
This has not been one of Fleury’s best seasons, his 2.80
goals against averge ranking 20th among the 38 goalies logging at
least 1,500 minutes, and his .905 save percentage ranking 27th in
that group, both numbers well off the pace of the 2.51 GAA he posted last
season with a .913 save percentage, and further off the 2.24/.927 season he had
in his first as a Golden Knight two years ago.
At age 35, one has to entertain the idea that Fleury is beginning to
yield to age, as every player of long service does eventually.
It has been feast or famine for Fleury lately. Over his last six appearances he was under
.860 in save percentage three times, but he also has two shutouts in that span,
including a 19-save effort in a 1-0 win over the New York Islanders on Saturday. In 41 career games against Washington, Fleury
is 23-14-2, 2.63, .911, with four shutouts.
1. Even with Saturday’s
shutout of the Islanders, Vegas has struggled on defense on home ice. Their 3.20 goals allowed per game is
sixth-worst in the league on home ice through Saturday’s games.
2. The Golden Knights
offset that weak scoring defense with a powerful power play. They are one of three teams in the league
with a home power play of 30 percent or better.
Their 30.0 percent home power play is topped only by Tampa Bay (31.6
percent) and Edmonton (32.6 percent).
3. Vegas gets the
jump on opponents at home. Their 37
first period goals on home ice rank second in the league (Montreal has 38).
4. The Golden Knights
could do a better job managing the rule book on home ice. Their net of minus-8 of penalties drawn to
penalties taken is tied for third-worst on home ice in the league. Only San Jose (minus-9) and the Islanders
(minus-16) are worse.
5. Vegas exacts a physical
price for skating on their ice sheet.
They have been credited with 991 hits on home ice so far, second only to
Pittsburgh (993).
1. John Carlson leads
the Caps in points (39), even strength points (26), power play points (13), and
plus-minus in road games for the Caps.
2. The Caps have an
odd collection of players in the plus-minus category in road games. Six of 25 skaters to take the ice in road
games are “minus” players, and that includes: Alex Ovechkin (minus-6), Evgeny
Kuznetsov (minus-2), T.J. Oshie (minus-2), Tom Wilson (minus-1), and Nicklas
Backstrom (minus-1), five-sixths of the top-six forward corps.
3. Carlson and Michal
Kempny are the only Capital skater with an on-ice even strength goal differential
of plus-10 or better (plus-22 and plus-10, respectively).
4. Richard Panik has
dressed for 23 road games and been on ice for only four even strength goals
against, the fewest of any Capital appearing in at least 15 road games.
5. Alex Ovechkin
leads all Capital skaters in credited hits in road games so far (84).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Vegas: Chandler Stephenson
Since December 3rd, 784 skaters have dressed for
NHL games. Only ten of them have a
better plus-minus rating than Chandler Stephenson. Why does the date matter? December 3rd was the date of
Stephenson’s first game with the Vegas Golden Knights after being traded by the
Caps for a fifth-round pick in the 2021 Entry Draft. Stephenson also has two shorthanded goals
scored for the Knights, a number topped by only five other players since his
arrival in Las Vegas. But what screams
off the page in his 31 games with Vegas to date are his eight goals. He had only 14 in 168 games over four-plus
seasons with the Caps. Almost as
impressive is his 1.13 shots on goal per game.
He never averaged more than 0.96 shots per game as a Capital and
averaged only 0.57 shots per game in his 168 games with Washington.
Stephenson has been particular effective on home ice
recently in the context of his role. In
his last 12 games on the T-Mobile Arena ice sheet, he is 4-5-9, plus-10,
posting points in eight of the 12 games and suffering only one game with a
minus rating. This will be Stephenson’s
first career game against the team that drafted him in the third round (77th
overall) in the 2012 Entry Draft.
Washington: Lars Eller
Yes, Lars Eller will always be remember for scoring the
game-winning, series-sealing, Stanley Cup clinching goal on this ice sheet in
June 2018. But time goes on. And in the here and now, Lars Eller is poised
to make this his best regular season as a Capital since he arrived in exchange
for a pair of second round draft picks from Montreal in June 2016. With 14 goals and 21 assists in 58 games, he
is on a pace to finish the season 20-30-50, which would make this season the
first of his career in which he posted 20 goals, 30 assists, and 50 points in a
season (he had 18 goals in 2017-2018, 23 assists last season, and 38 points in
2017-2018 as current career bests).
After a slow start in the road portion of this season’s
resume, Eller has picked up the pace. After
going six straight road games without a point from October 29th
through November 30th, he is 3-9-12 in his last 14 road games. He has also become more disciplined. In his first ten road games this season he
logged 12 minutes in penalties. In his
last 18 road games, though, he has just ten minutes in penalties, although six
of them have come in his last two road games, against Colorado (four) and
Arizona (two). Given that he logs an
average of 2:29 in shorthanded ice time per game, second among Capital
forwards, his absences on the penalty kill are something the team would rather
he avoid. Eller has yet to record a
point and has a minus-2 rating in five career games against Vegas.
In the end…
The Caps played a reasonably good road game against Colorado
last Thursday. They followed it up with
another one against Arizona and just couldn’t finish what chances they
had. You get the feeling that the dam is
about to break for the Caps, who seem to be climbing out of the “February Funk,”
and as Alex Ovechkin bears down on getting that 700th career
goal. A win and a milestone would be a
good way to celebrate on the scene of the Caps’ biggest triumph.
Capitals 4 – Golden Knights 3
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