The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
A four-game home stand comes to an end for the Washington
Capitals on Monday night when they host the New York Islanders. The Caps find themselves in the unfortunate
position of trying to salvage a .500 home stand with a win that would make them
2-2-0. Meanwhile, the Islanders arrive in Washington in the midst of an almost two month slide that has seen them drop off from once contending for the Metropolitan Division lead to fighting for their playoff lives.
Then and Now…
Saturday will be the 222nd time that the Capitals
and Islanders have met in the regular season.
Washington has a 111-91-6 (13 ties) record in the series, 56-40-3 (11
ties) on home ice. Since 2005-2006, the
Caps are 34-19-6 against New York overall, 16-10-3 in Washington. This is the last of of four meetings between the
clubs this season. Washington won both
games in New York, 2-1 on October 4th and 6-4 on January 18th. The Islanders won the only meeting in
Washington to date, 4-3, on New Year’s Eve.
Active Leaders vs. Opponent…
Noteworthy Opponents…
Josh Bailey is in his 12th season with the New
York Islanders. A home grown product,
taken by the Isles with the ninth-overall pick of the 2008 Entry Draft, he is
second in his draft class in NHL games played (850), trailing only Drew Doughty
(905). But it is the seasons that are
noteworthy. Bailey is in some rarefied
air there. Only four players in Islander
history have played in more seasons: Pat Flatley (13), Bob Nystrom (14), Denis
Potvin (15), and Bryan Trottier (15).
The odd part of his longevity is how unremarkable it is in terms of
standout seasons, but how consistent it has been on a year-to-year basis. For example, Bailey has never posted a
20-goal season (and almost certainly won’t this season with 11 goals in 53
games), but he has had ten double-digit goal seasons out of 12. He has never had more than five power play
goals in a season, but he has never gone a season without one (that is in
jeopardy this season; he has none in 53 games).
Last year was the first, and to date only, season of his career in which
he did not post a game-winning goal.
The change in Bailey’s statistical progress has mirrored the
recent success of the team generally.
Until the 2016-2017 season, his high season in points was 41 in
2015-2016. But starting with the
2016-2017 season he recorded consecutive seasons of 56, 71, and 56 points. He is on a pace to finish this season with
his fourth consecutive 50-plus point season (he is on a pace for exactly
50). He has been scoring at a quicker
pace of late, going 3-6-9 over his last 11 games. In 47 career games against the Caps, Bailey
is 5-12-17, minus-16.
When Ryan Pulock assisted on a Matt martin goal in the third
period of the Islanders’ 5-3 win over Los Angeles last Thursday, it was his 100th
career point. While it might not sound
like a lot, he became the 23rd defenseman in team history to record
100 points with the club and only the ninth to do it in less than first five
seasons with the club. Pulock is already
tied for 12th among defensemen in team history in goals (27, with
Vladimir Malakhov) and is 24th in team history in assists among
defensemen (73). Making his early career
contributions more impressive is that he played in a total of only 16 games
over his first two seasons, which he followed up with a pair of 30-plus point
seasons. He is on a pace to record his
first 40-point season this year (a 42-point pace through 53 games). Scoring is not his only contribution. He is competent in the grittier arts, too,
his career totals in blocked shots and credited hits being almost identical in
five seasons (344 and 347, respectively).
Pulock has been a reasonable indicator of success, as one
might expect for someone at his position who is not an elite scorer. The Islanders have points in all six games
this season in which he recorded a goal (5-0-1) and are 15-4-4 in the 23 games
in which he has a point. He has been
struggling on the road of late, though.
In his last 11 road games, Pulock is 1-1-2, minus-2. Pulock is 1-4-5, minus-5, in 12 career games
against the Capitals.
Hard to say who will get the start in goal for the Islanders
in this one. In 25 road games so far,
Semyon Varlamov has had 13 starts, while Thomas Greiss has had the other
12. They have nearly identical save
percentages in those games, Varlamov holding a slim .926 to .923 edge. The difference is what has happened in front
of them. Varlamov has faced a reasonably
comfortable 29.7 shots per 60 minutes on the road so far, but Greiss has had to
face 34.0 shots per 60 minutes. This
accounts for Greiss’ 2.61 goals against average compared to the 2.18 GAA
Varlamov has recorded in road games. If
you are looking for recent trends, Varlamov has been in a slump of late, going
2-61, 2.96, .904, with one shutout in his last nine appearances. Greiss is 5-5-2 (one no-decision), 2.98, .910
in his last 13 appearances. The
difference is their respective career record against the Caps, and even there
it is not much. Varlamov is 4-6-1, 2.74,
.924 in 11 career games against Washington, while Greiss is 3-3-1, 2.15, .927,
with one shutout against the Caps.
1. On November 21st,
the Isles beat Pittsburgh to go 16-3-1 in their first 20 games. Since then, they are 15-13-5, tied for 19th
in standings points earned over that period (35) and 20th in points
percentage (.530).
2. Over that 33-game
slide, the Islanders are a bottom-ten team in scoring offense (2.67 goals per
game/24th), power play (17.9 percent/22nd), net penalty
kill (81.0 percent/22nd), shots on goal per game (29.9/26th),
shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 (minus-28/26th), shot
attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 (47.4/27th), first period goals
scored (26th/tied for 23rd), second period goals scored
(29/tied for 23rd), third period goals scored (29/tied for 23rd),
winning percentage when scoring first (.600/tied for 22nd), winning
percentage when trailing first (.231/tied for 22nd), and winning
percentage when leading after the first period (.600/tied for 25th). Their drop-off has not been a fluke.
3. Three goals. Islanders are the only team in the league
that has not lost a game, either in regulation or in extra time, when scoring
three or more goals on the road (13-0-0).
4. The flip side of
that is that the Islanders are 12-0-2 when allowing two or fewer goals on the
road this season, one of ten teams not to lose in regulation when doing so. Good when scoring, good when not being scored
upon. Got it, but still better than
most.
5. The Islanders have
allowed one or more power play goals in 11 road games this season. Only three teams have done so fewer times:
Boston (10), Chicago (10), and Edmonton (nine).
1. The seven goals
the Caps allowed to the Flyers marked the tenth time this season they allowed
teams five or more goals in a game. They are 1-9-0 in those games, the only win
coming in a Gimmick over Vancouver, 6-5, on October 25th. The Caps are actually behind last year’s pace
in this regard; they allowed five or more goals 21 times last year, going
2-14-7 (both wins came in extra time).
2. The Caps have
allowed 63 goals over their last 18 games.
The 3.50 goals allowed per game is tied for second-worst scoring defense
(with Ottawa) over that span. Only
Toronto is worse (3.63).
3. That weak scoring defense
came despite the Caps allowing the second-lowest average of shots per game over
that span (27.9, fewer than all teams except the Vegas Golden Knights (27.4)).
4. Over that 18-game
stretch, the Caps had the fifth-best shot attempts differential at 5-on-5
(plus-312) and the fifth-best shot attempts-for percentage (53.9).
5. Only seven times
in those 18 games did the Caps score first, third-fewest over that span. Nashville had six instances scoring first,
Dallas had five. Only three times did
they take a lead into the first intermission (winning all three times). Only Dallas had fewer leads after 20 minutes
(two).
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
New York: Noah Dobson
There always seems to have been a question about the level
of trust head coach Barry Trotz places in rookies. It was an issue from time to time in
Washington, with Andre Burakovsky appearing to be the most frequent
example. This season with the Islanders,
Trotz has chosen to dress four rookies, but only defenseman Noah Dobson has
appeared in ten or more games. He
appeared in only 11 of the teams’ first 38 games this season, but he has
dressed for the Islanders’ last 15 games to bring his season total to 26 games
played.
Dobson was the fifth defenseman taken among the 2018 Entry
Draft’s first 12 picks, the Islanders taking him 12th overall after
Rasmus Dahlin (Buffalo/first overall), Quinn Hughes (Vancouver/seventh), Adam
Boqvist (Chicago/eighth), and Evan Bouchard (Edmonton/tenth) were taken. Dobson has not yet made a splash, though, especially
on the road. In 12 road games so far in
his young career, he has only one point, an assist in a 4-2 win over the New
York Rangers on January 21st.
His ice time has, as one might expect playing for a head coach with a
reputation for leaning heavily on veterans, been parceled out sparingly. Only nine times has Dobson passed the 15
minute mark in ice time for a game, and the Isles are 4-2-3 in those games. He went without a point and had an even
rating in his only appearance so far against the Caps, skating 8:12 (second
lowest ice time of his season) in a 6-4 loss to Washington on Janaury 18th.
Washington: Jonas Siegenthaler
One might think of Jonas Siegenthaler as the Caps
counterpart to Noah Dobson. Siegenthaler
does not have Dobson’s draft pedigree, having been taken in the second round
(57th overall) in the 2015 entry draft. However, only Martin Fehervary among the nine
defensemen to dress for the Caps this season is younger. In fact, of 100 defensemen to dress in at
least 50 games this season (Siegenthaler has dressed for 54 games), only 12 are
younger.
Siegenthaler has established a benchmark for his further
development, posting his first two NHL goals this season (he had none last year
as a rookie in 26 games), seven assists, and nine points. His plus-9 rating is a respectable fourth
among the nine defensemen to dress for the Caps this season, as is his
fourth-ranked hit total (43). He tops
all Caps defensemen in blocked shots (87) and in shorthanded ice time per game
(3:10, tied for 11th in the league among 208 defensemen playing in
at least 25 games).
His scoring, not yet a significant part of his game, has
been sparse over the last seven weeks.
He does not have a goal since December 20th (18 games) and
has only three assists in that span. On
the other hand, in the 18 games over that stretch, the eight goals Siegenthaler
has been on ice for at even strength are fewest of any Caps defenseman dressing
for more than two games. And, whether a
product of sheltered minutes or attention to defensive responsibilities,
Siegenthaler has been a minus-2 or worse in games only twice this season in 54
games, and not worse than minus-2 in either of them. Siegenthaler is without a point and is
minus-2 in five career games against the Islanders.
In the end…
The Caps have been a very ordinary team for going on two
months now. They have fallen into bad
habits, have been unable (or unwilling) to string together multiple games, and
sometimes even period to period, with good effort. A letdown from the torrid start to the season
(26-6-5 in their first 37 games) was to be expected. But they are underperforming their talent
level, on paper, and they cannot blame the matter on injuries, at least none
that get reported. The record has been
especially disappointing against Metropolitan Division teams, against which the
Caps have a mediocre 9-9-1 record so far.
Monday night is an opportunity to address both of these issues at the
expense of an old friend.
Capitals 4 – Islanders 2
No comments:
Post a Comment