Richard Panik
“New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings.”
– Lao Tzu
When Richard Panik was signed by the Washington Capitals to a four-year, $11 million contract in July 2019, he was going to fill in as best he could a hole among the bottom six forwards when Andre Burakovsky (traded to Colorado) and Brett Connolly (signed by Florida) left. Burakovsky was an underperforming youngster, while Connolly was a somewhat one-dimensional goal scoring winger. Panik was thought of as more of a two-way, perhaps more “responsible” sort of forward with some offensive upside who would add discipline and consistency to what was a somewhat disappointing bottom six in 2018-2019.
It did not work out that way, at least not at the start of the 2019-2020 season. Panik’s offense to start the season was non-existent. In his first nine games he registered only seven shots on goal, three times failing to record one. He did not have a point in his first dozen games, had only four points in his first 28 games (3-1-4). He was a plu-s6 over those 28 games, though, so it was not an entirely lost cause at that point.
Persistence, patience, or simply better hockey luck paid off for Panik after those difficult first 28 games. He was a quite effective player over his last 31 games, going 6-12-18, plus-10, and shooting 18.8 percent in 11 minutes and change in ice time per night (having 32 shots in 31 games might have merited improvement, but still). It did not move the needle much in terms of wins and losses, though. Over those last 31 games, the Caps were 8-5-2 in 15 games in which Panik recorded at least one point, 7-8-1 in 16 games in which he did not.
Odd Panik Fact… Richard Panik spread his scoring around last season. His 22 points were recorded against 16 different teams. The only team against which he scored as many as three points was Pittsburgh (a goal and two assists).
Odd Panik Fact II… Last season was the first in which Panik dressed for more than 30 games and had more giveaways (29) than takeaways (21) since the 2013-2014 season, when he had 16 takeaways and 23 giveaways in 50 games for Tampa Bay.
Fearless’ Take…
When Richard Panik closed his first season with the Caps with a rush on the offensive side of the puck, he salvaged a season that looked disastrous early, one that ultimately looked a little better than his career per-82-game numbers. As it was, he finished eighth in goals among forwards, ninth in both assists and points. Third line numbers. His plus-10 rating was second-best on the team over his last 31 games (Michal Kempny: plus-11). Over that same span, his 18.8 shooting percentage was topped only by Alex Ovechkin (19.4) and T.J. Oshie (20.3). His six even strength goals over those 31 games were sixth on the team, while his 18 even strength points were second only to Ovechkin (23). Only Ovechkin had more first goals (five) than Panik (two).
Cheerless’ Take…
Those last 31 games are nice, cuz, but the season was 69 games long. And Panik’s postseason was hardly unicorns and accordions. He had one goal and one point in eight games with a minus-2 rating. Then again, that one goal was one more than fellow bottom-six forwards Ilya Kovalchuk, Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller. Still, Panik had a good “part of a season,” and that was not really good enough for the Caps last season.
Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:
- 500 career NHL games (he currently has 469)
- 100 career goals (84)
- 200 career points (181)
- 100 games as a Capital (59)
The Big Question… Which Richard Panik will step up (or step back) this season?
Richard Panik’s 2019-2020 season was one in three distinct parts, a soggy start and playoff finish with a meaty middle. Sounds like a sandwich you really don’t want to eat. But it begs the question of which Panik was the most representative of his value to the club and whether he can sustain a level of performance sufficient to make the Caps’ season successful. The second half of his regular season could be either a recovery from a poor “get acquainted” period with his new team, or it could be an outlier. It did allow him to post a regular season in goals-assists-points per game (0.15-0.22-0.37) that was only slightly off his career goals-assists-points per game going into the season (0.18-0.20-0.38). What complicates the issue going forward is Panik’s $2.75 million cap hit through the 2022-2023 season. That number is almost twice that of combined cap hits this season of two forwards the Caps added over the last year, Daniel Sprong ($725,000) and Conor Sheary ($735,000). With the Caps sitting at a projected cap hit of $85.1 million, even the long term injury reserve cushion they have for Michal Kempny and Henrik Lundqvist (combined $4.0 million this season) leaves Panik in a bit of a precarious situation.
In the end…
High end talent on an NHL roster is a necessary element to success. However, there is considerable talent among the teams with serious Stanley Cup ambitions, which means that those skilled players are not necessarily a sufficient element of success. Bottom-six/third pair defense that undergird that skill is often the added element that teams need for that final push. The Caps had it in 2017-2018, when they won the Stanley Cup. They did not have it the past two seasons when they finished in disappointing fashion with first-round playoff exits. The Caps can make the playoffs without significant contributions from the bottom-six forwards (but this is by no means certain). They almost certainly cannot go deep in the postseason without their contributions, and Richard Panik needs to be part of that contribution.
Projection: 52 games, 7-11-18, plus-9
Photo: Harry How/Getty Images
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