The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals end the pre-Christmas portion of their schedule on Tuesday night in The City That Booed Santa Claus.
Yes, Virginia, there are Grinches in Philadelphia. And a lot of them are Flyers fans. Nevertheless, the Caps will visit Wells Fargo Arena with what Caps fans hope are buckets full of coal for the fans of the orange and black. A win in Philadelphia could leave the Caps in first place in the Metropolitan Division going into the Christmas break and would stick another nail in the coffin that holds the Flyers’ postseason hopes.
Philadelphia has struggled for most of the season, but they seem to have awakened, going 4-0-1 in their last five games. Unfortunately for the Flyers, that surge comes on the heels of a ten-game losing streak (0-8-2), and they find themselves in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division, ten points behind the fourth-place Pittsburgh Penguins for the last playoff spot.
The Flyers might be finding their offense. Over their first 22 games through December 5th, they averaged just 2.32 goals per game, 28th in the league in scoring offense. In seven games since then, however, they averaged 3.71 goals per game, tied for fourth in the league in scoring offense. Thirteen different Flyers have goals in this offensive surge, led by Cam Atkinson and Claud e Giroux with four apiece.
The pair represent the new and the old for the Flyers. Atkinson is in his 11th season in the NHL but in his first as a Flyer after ten seasons with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He arrived in a trade for Jakub Voracek in what seemed a classic “he needs new scenery” type of trade for both players. And after posting seasons of 12 and 15 goals in his last two years in Columbus after six straight 20-plus goal seasons (including 41 goals in 2018-2019), it seems Atkinson did need that change in scenery. He already has 12 goals in just 29 games, a 34-goal pace. There is an odd aspect to his goal scoring this season, even with his recent production. He started the season with six goals in his first five games, but then he went silent, posting only one goal in his next 16 games before recording five in his last eight games, including a hat trick in a 6-1 win over New Jersey on December 14th. Another odd feature of Atkinson’s scoring to date is that it lacks relevance to wins and losses. The Flyers are just 4-3-1 in the eight games in which he has goals. And, to complete the trifecta of odd facts about Atkinson’s goal scoring, seven of the eight games in which he scored goals so far were played on home ice. Take note. He is 12-8-20, plus-5, in 28 career games against Washington.
Giroux is at the other end of the new-old spectrum. Now in his 15th season with the Flyers, he ranks highly in just about every meaningful all-time offensive statistic in Flyers’ history. He is second in games played (972), ninth in goals scored (284), second in assists (599), tied for second in points (883), ninth in even strength goals (194), fourth in even strength points (533), ninth in power play goals (83), first in power play points (334), first in overtime goals (11), and seventh in game-winning goals (46). He is having his best year in one respect. His goals per 60 minutes (1.3) is the highest of his career to date. Giroux has been a reasonably consistent contributor on offense this season. While he does have a four-game streak without a point on this year’s card, he has only one other instance of consecutive games without a point. Since posting those consecutive games without a point in late November, he has points in eight of his last 11 games over which he is 4-5-9, minus-3. Giroux is 23-26-49, plus-6, in 54 career games against the Caps.
James van Riemsdyk has become something of a power play specialist in his second tour wit the Flyers. Originally drafted seventh overall in the 2007 Entry Draft, van Riemsdyk spent three seasons with Philadelphia before heading to Toronto for six seasons. He returned to the Flyers for the 2018-2019 season as a free agent and became quite productive in man advantage situations. He has 68 goals in 217 games over the last three-plus seasons in Philly, more than a third of those goals – 25 – scored on the power play. So far this season, van Riemsdyk has five goals in 29 games, a rather drastic drop in his production, his 0.5 goals per 60 minutes being the lowest scoring rate of his career. Of those five goals, three have been scored on power plays, all on the road, and all of them in Flyer wins. In 43 career games against Washington, van Riemsdyk is 12-16-28, minus-4.
1. The Flyers could
be called a “high-event” team on home ice in that their combined 6.79 goals per
game (3.36 for, 3.43 against) ranks fourth-highest in the league.
2. Philadelphia has
allowed 34.1 shots against on home ice, most in the league.
3. No team has
allowed more second period goals on home ice than the Flyers (24).
4. Scoring first is
usually a good sign that a win is in the offing; 30 teams have winning
percentages of .500 or better when scoring first on home ice. The Flyers, however, rank 28th in
the league when scoring first at home (5-2-2/.556).
5. Philadelphia has not
yet won at home when trailing after two periods (0-5-1)
1. The Caps’ 15.6 percent power play is the fourth worst for the club since 1977-1978, when the league started capturing statistics.
2. Washington’s 45.7
percent faceoff winning percentage is the worst ever for the team since the
league began capturing this statistic in 1997-1008.
3. The Caps have spread
the scoring around when on the road. Of 28
skaters to dress so far this season, 27 have points in road games. Only Hendrix Lapierre (blanked in one road
game) is without one.
4. Of nine rookie
skaters to dress for the Caps this season, only one has a minus rating (Connor
McMichael is minus-2).
5. All 29 skaters to
dress for the Caps this season have recorded at least one point.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Martin Jones
Carter Hart has returned to the Flyers’ active roster after an illness (probably not COVID), but with a lackluster 2-3-1, 2.89, .907 record against the Caps in his career, he might not be thrust into the lineup right away against this team. There is also his 4-4-2, 2.82, .910 record on home ice, which won’t impress a lot of people. Not that backup Martin Jones is an improvement, generally, posting a 2-2-0, 4.40, .887 record at Wells Fargo Arena this season. But he does have a 6-4-1 record, including two shutouts, against the Caps in his career (albeit with a 2.82 goals against average and .904 save percentage).
Jones had a promising start to his career, finishing 16th in Calder Trophy voting as a rookie with the Los Angeles Kings in 2013-2014, one of four goalies to receive votes. He finished seventh in Vezina Trophy voting with San Jose in 2015-2016 and sixth in Vezina voting the next season. But since 2016-2017, his career has been in decline. In four seasons after that sixth-place Vezina finish he went 98-75-17, 2.89, .902 with the Sharks and fewer than haff of his starts qualifying as “quality” starts. He signed as a free agent with the Flyers last July, but the change in address has not been especially successful to date – 5-4-1, 3.33, .907 overall. Worse, after winning his first three decisions with the Flyers, he is 2-4-1, 3.99, ,892 in eight appearances. Four times in those eight games he allowed four or more goals and had save percentages under .900 five times. He did win his last two decisions but with unimpressive save percentages barely over .900 in each game. The balancing act with Jones, should he get the nod, is a good record against the Caps versus a ghastly record on home ice this season. The Flyers might have to have their offense running in high gear to overcome Jones’ deficiencies.
Washington: Martin Fehervary
Martin Fehervary does not have the offensive numbers among rookie defensemen of a Moritz Seider (3-18-21) or a Jamie Drysdale (3-11-14), but his six points (3-3-6) is tied for fifth among rookie defensemen, a rather respectable total for a blueliner who does not get the power play ice time of a Seider (eight power play points) or a Drysdale (five power play points). Fehervary impresses in other categories, though. He is tied for the league lead among rookie defensemen in plus-minus rating (plus 11, with Nashville’s Alexandre Carrier), third in shots on goal (37), fourth in shooting percentae (8.1 percent; minimum: ten shots on goal), sixth in average ice time (19:01; minimum: ten games), third in shorthanded ice time (1:31 per game; minimum: ten games), first in credited hits (85), tied for second in blocked shots (46), sixth in takeaways (six), and he is the only rookie defenseman with a shorthanded goal this season.
Fehervary has been a solid road performer this season with a scoring line of 1-3-4, plus-3, in 15 road contests. He also has been unafraid to display a physical edge on the road, his 53 credited hits the most, by far, among Caps defensemen (Nick Jensen has 31). He ranks fifth among the league’s 172 defenseman appearing in at least 10 road games in hits per 60 minutes (10.87). Fehervary is 0-1-1, minus-1, in two career games against Philadelphia.
In the end…
It is cliché to say that a team wants to go on a holiday break on a winning note, but for the Caps, a team that has battled adversity all season and is still at or near the top of the Metropolitan Division standings, a win going into the Christmas break, especially against a division opponent on their rink, would be especially satisfying. The Flyers have played better of late, but the Caps are 7-1-0 in their last eight visits to South Philly, outscoring the Flyers on a per game basis by a 4.00 to 2.50 margin. Buckle up, though. This will be a battle.
Capitals 4 – Flyers 3
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