The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!
The Washington Capitals wrap up their four-game road trip with a Saturday matinee at Wells Fargo Center, where they will wrap up the road portion of their season series against the Philadelphia Flyers. The Caps will look to sweep the Flyers on their own rink, having bested the Flyers, 5-3, in their other visit, on February 17th. Despite their uninspired 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers on Thursday night, the Caps can wrap up a successful road trip with a win in Philadelphia and a 3-1 record on the trip.
Meanwhile, the sinking like a stone Flyers will labor under a six-game losing streak and a 2-14-5 record over their last 21 games when they take the ice to host the Caps (0-4-2). The most disappointing part of that record is the Flyers’ inability to win on home ice (2-7-3). Their .292 points percentage on home ice over this stretch is tied for third-worst in the league (we will point out that the Caps’ home winning percentage over this same period is worst in the league (.250/2-7-1).
The Flyers have not had much success from their expected players as far as goal scoring is concerned on home ice over this stretch. In 12 games at Wells Fargo Center since December 30th, their leading goal scorers are Oskar Lindblom and Gerry Mayhew with five apiece. Lindblom is one of the feel-good stories for a team desperately in search of one. A fifth-round (138th overall) pick in the 2014 Entry Draft, Lindblom showed steady improvement once he cracked the Flyer lineup in 2017-2018. He went 2-4-6, plus-4 in 23 games in his first season in Philadelphia and followed that up with a 17-16-33, minus-9, scoring line in his sophomore season.
He was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019-2020, going 11-7-18, plus-4, in 30 games when he was diagnosed on December 13, 2019, with Ewing’s sarcoma, ending his season. After almost seven months of treatment, the Flyers showed faith in his ability to return to action, signing him to a three-year/$9 million contract less than three weeks after his last chemotherapy treatment. Lindblom returned to action on January 13, 2021, scoring a goal in his first game back. He finished the 2020-2021 season 8-6-14, minus-9, an excellent result for a player recovering from cancer. His determination in his comeback resulted in his winning the 2021 Masterton Trophy for exhibiting qualities of perseverance and sportsmanship. Lindblom is 8-11-19, minus-2, in 50 games so far this season and brings a 1-4-5, minus-8 scoring line in 16 career games against the Caps.
Gerry Mayhew does not have the same history as Lindblom, save in one respect – perseverance. An undrafted player after four years with Ferris State University, he signed a try-out contract with the Iowa Wild of the AHL in March 2017. He graduated to the Minnesota Wild in May 2019 but dressed for only 17 games over two seasons with the parent club before departing as a free agent. He was signed by the Flyers in July 2021, but he did not crack the Flyer lineup until December 29th. After going without a point over his first six games as a Flyer, he is 6-0-6, even, in his last 11 games with the club. His scorer’s touch should not be all that surprising, despite his lack of draft pedigree. In four years at Ferris State, Mayhew scored 52 goals in 150 games. Over five seasons with the Iowa Wild, he posted 97 goals in 228 games, including 39 goals in 49 games in 2019-2020. At age 29, finally getting a shot at regular NHL play, Mayhew is a study in perseverance and determination. In two career games against the Caps, he has a pair of goals and has a plus-2 rating.
The Flyers’ defense has been, in a word, awful. Ten defensemen have dressed for the team this season, and seven have a negative 5-on-5 on ice goal differential. Only two have positive goal differentials at fives – Ryan Ellis, with a plus-2 in only four games, and Travis Sanheim, who is plus-2 in 49 games. Although a modest plus number, it is quite an improvement over his minus-21 in 51 games last season, tied for fourth-worst among 214 defensemen dressing for at least 20 games. Since his arrival in Philadelphia in 2017-2018, he ranks third in goals scored by defensemen (26), third in assists (78), and is one of three defensemen to post at least 100 points (104) with the club. His three overtime goals is tied for most among defensemen over that period, his 84 takeaways rank first, and his 391 blocked shots rank second.
On the other hand, his minus-24 is second worst among 24 defensemen to dress over that period, his 223 giveaways rank second worst, and his 115 penalty minutes rank fourth in that group. And, his ice time reflects poorly on results. In 20 games in which Sanheim skated at least 23 minutes, the Flyers are 4-8-8. But it is still better than instances in which he has lighter ice time burdens. In 13 games in which Sanheim skated fewer than 20 minutes, the Flyers are 1-11-1. His offense has largely dried up over the last two-plus months. He carries a 26-game streak without a goal (0-5-5) into Saturday’s game after going 4-10-14, plus-3, in his first 23 games of the season. Sanheim is 1-3-4, minus-11 (worst plus-minus against any team he has faced), in 18 career games against Washington.
1. The Flyers’ 2-14-5 since December 30th is worst in the league over that span, the only team over that period failing to amass at least ten standings points (nine).
2. It is no wonder that the Flyers record since December 30th is worst in the league. They rank 30th or worse in scoring offense (2.33 goals per game/31st), scoring defense (3.90 goals allowed per game/30h), power play (11.1 percent/31st), and penalty kill (67.9 percent/32nd).
3. No team has yielded the first goal in more games than the Flyers since their slump began on December 30th (16 times, tied with Edmonton and Seattle); their record in those games is 1-13-2, fifth-worst in the league.
4. Only Seattle has fewer goals on home ice (four) since December 30th than the Flyers (five) during their 2-7-3 slide at home over that period. The 13 third period goals they scored over the period is almost equal to the total they scored in the first 40 minutes of games (14), but even with that third period goal total, they have a minus-9 goal differential in third periods of games during that span.
5. Only once in the 12 home games in this slump did the Flyers carry a lead into the third period. They won, but not until after allowing the Los Angeles Kings to tie the game in the third period before winning, 4-3, in overtime on January 29th.
1. In each of their last five losses, the Caps allowed four or more goals; only once this season have the Caps allowed more than three goals in a game and won, a 7-5 decision in Ottawa against the Senators on October 25th. In 17 games in which they allowed four or more goals (not counting Gimmick decisions), the Caps are 1-12-4.
2. In 26 road games this season, the Caps have allowed first period goals in just 11 of them and only twice allowed two goals (November 4th at Florida in a 5-4 overtime loss and February 1st against Pittsburgh in a 4-3 overtime win).
3. In those same 26 road games, the Caps scored at least one first period goal in 17 of them, eight times scoring two or more with a high of four in the first period of a 7-5 win in Ottawa against the Senators on October 25th.
4. Does a winning faceoff percentage mean anything? In a limited sample of road games, not for the Caps. They are 3-3-2 in the eight road games in which they finished over 50 percent on faceoffs.
5. No team has scored first in more road games than the Caps, who have done so 20 times in 26 road games. They are 13-5-2 in those games, their .650 winning percentage ranking 15th.
The Peerless’ Players to Ponder
Philadelphia: Kevin Hayes
It is not often we feature a player in this space who will not play, but the story of Kevin Hayes is one of frustration that parallels that of the Flyers over this season. He came to the Flyers in a trade with the Winnipeg Jets in June 2019. In his first two seasons with the club, he went 35-37-72, minus-8, in 124 games – second in games played for the Flyers, fourth in goals scored, sixth in points, tied for fourth in power play goals scored (seven), first in overtime goals scored (here), and third among all forwards in average ice time (17:38 per game). But last year, Hayes played with a nagging sports hernia injury for which he had surgery after the season.
He missed the first dozen games of this season before returning to the Flyers’ lineup on November 13th. He lasted just 20 games, though, injuring an adductor muscle that has kept him out of the lineup since his last appearance on January 17th. In those 20 games in which Hayes played, the Flyers went 6-11-3, slightly lower on a points percentage basis (.375) than the 9-15-7/.403 Philadelphia has in his absence. Hayes, a reliable two-way forward who scored at least a dozen goals and posted at least 30 points in each of his seven seasons before this one, is an indicator of the depth of the Flyers’ problems, a team that has a record with or without him in the lineup that is very similar – poor. Nevertheless, they are likely to miss his 7-12-19, even, career scoring line in 32 games against the Caps.
Washington: Garnet Hathaway
Garnet Hathaway continues to march along toward a career year in his seven years in the NHL. In 48 games he played to date, he has ten goals, one off the 11 he recorded for Calgary in 76 games in 2018-2019. All of those ten goals were scored at even strength, setting a new career high. His nine assists are within three of his career high of 12 set last season with the Caps in 56 games. He has already tied a career high in points (19) that he set with the Flames in 2018-2019. His plus-15 rating is a career best. His 13:54 in ice time per game is a career high. He has three game-winning goals in 48 games, just two off the five he had in 76 games in 2018-2019. His 91 shots on goal are already a career best. His two empty net goals are a career high, as are his three empty net points. His 0.82 goals per 60 minutes is one one-hundredth of a goal short of the 0.83 goals per 60 minutes he posted with Calgary in 2018-2019.
And, he has done this playing for the most part within the rules. Despite his being a player who is unafraid of mixing things up and stirring the pot, his 1.44 penalties taken per 60 minutes is a career low. This season, his contributions matter, as one might expect when a fourth liner produces in the offensive end of the rink. The Caps are 5-1-1 in games in which he had a goal, 8-3-2 in the 13 games in which he had points. The Caps are 8-1-3 in the 12 games in which he skated at least 15 minutes. They are 10-2-2 when he posted at least three shots on goal. Hathaway is 3-5-8, plus-4, in 19 career games against Philadelphia.
In the end…
The Caps, struggling as they are, are not in the same class of despair as the Flyers, who have one win in regulation time since December 16th, a span of 24 games (4-14-6 overall). Every game is a test of one form or another, and for the Caps it is a test to see if a team, struggling but getting healthier, can overwhelm a team playing out the string on their own ice. Good teams do such things. After the disappointing effort against the Rangers on Thursday, the Caps have something to prove in this regard. It would not necessarily make them a “good” team at the moment, but it would make them better than what they displayed in New York, or what they have displayed over the last two months, for the most part.
Capitals 4 – Flyers 1
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