Showing posts with label 2014 stanley cup playoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 stanley cup playoffs. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Crosby and Ovechkin -- United Once More


This is a tale of two players, once thought of as the future of the NHL who would lead their respective teams to a decade or more of achievement, usually at the expense of the other.  Their home towns separated by more than 4,000 miles, the cities they call home in the NHL separated by less than 200 miles, they have been almost inseparable in the minds of fans and media since each came into the NHL in 2005.

Almost a decade later, the rivalry between Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby has dimmed.  Between them they have one Stanley Cup, that belonging to Crosby.  They have faced one another only once in the playoffs, that coming in Crosby’s Stanley Cup year in 2009.  Since then, their games and their teams have suffered in the post-season, either from injury, the lack of an adequate supporting cast, coaching turnover, or their own shortcomings.  This morning, one is participating in a world hockey tournament that might seem like an afterthought – the NIT to March Madness – while the other licks his wounds after another lost series to a lower-seeded team.

In a sad way, though, Crosby and Ovechkin are united once more, now by their frustration in the Stanley Cup playoffs.  Since that 2009 triumph for Crosby, both he and Ovechkin have participated in four post-season tournaments.  Crosby missed the 2011 playoffs due to injury, Ovechkin’s team failed to qualify for the 2014 post-season.  For each, those four playoff seasons paint a disturbing picture for players once thought to be the league’s apex mano-a-mano rivalry.  

At the highest and most meaningful level, Crosby and Ovechkin simple have not won enough.  In 46 playoff games played since his Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup in 2009, Crosby’s teams have a win-loss record of 23-23 in games in which he played, 4-4 in playoff series.  He has been to one conference final.  Meanwhile, in Washington, Ovechkin’s Capitals have a win-loss record of 17-20 over the same span of years, a 2-4 record in series.  The Capitals have not advanced past the second round in any of those seasons.

Even within those respective game and series win-loss records, there is a disappointing record.  In elimination games – those in which their respective teams have to win or go home for the summer – both Crosby’s and Ovechkin’s teams have 2-4 records.  In those six games Ovechkin has a scoring line of 1-2-3, even.  Oddly enough, Crosby is also 1-2-3 in his six elimination games played, but he carries a minus-5 in those games along with that points line.

Then there is the matter of series-clinching games – those for which a win means heading on to the next round.  In those games Crosby’s teams have a 4-6 record over his four playoff seasons with a scoring line of 2-6-8, minus-1.  Embedded in that record is the stain of dropping three straight series-clinching opportunities in one series, the one lost to the New York Rangers last night being the instance on his record. 

On the other hand, the record of Ovechkin’s teams is even worse.  The Capitals have had nine opportunities to close out series in Ovechkin’s four playoff appearances over the last five years and posted a 2-7 record in those games.  His scoring line in those contests is 3-2-5, minus-2, but what is odd about his scoring line, given his reputation as a dangerous goal scorer on the power play, is that he has no power play goals.  He, too, has on his record an instance of losing three straight series-clinching games in a single series, that coming in 2010 against the Montreal Canadiens in one of the most shocking first-round upsets in recent playoff memory.

There is also the matter of the ultimate test, a Game 7.  While there is a very small sample of games between them overall, just six in fact, neither seems to have risen to the occasion on that stage.  Crosby has just two appearances in a Game 7 over his four playoff seasons, losing both and failing to register a point in either game.  One came in 2010 in the second round against Montreal, another instance of the Canadiens pulling off a big upset in that year, the other against the Rangers last night.

Ovechkin has made appearing in Game 7’s something of a habit, playing in four Game 7’s over his four playoff seasons.  The Capitals’ record in those four games is 1-3, one of them against Montreal in 2010, two in 2012 against the Boston Bruins and the Rangers, the fourth coming in 2013 against the Rangers again.  Ovechkin and the Capitals are no small part of the reason that Rangers’ goaltender Henrik Lundqvist has built a sturdy resume as a clutch Game 7 goaltender over the past several years.  The Caps and Ovechkin account for two of Lundqvist’s five straight wins in Game 7’s over the last three post-seasons (the Caps also account for Lundqvist’s only career Game 7 loss, that coming in 2009).  Ovechkin’s scoring line in his four Game 7’s is 0-1-1, minus-1.

Here are the respective post-season records of Ovechkin and Crosby, post-2009, summarized:


This is not how it was supposed to be.  When Sidney Crosby won his Cup in 2009, one might have thought it was just a matter of time before Alex Ovechkin won his first Cup, especially with the way the Capitals steamrolled through the following regular season.  That was the way it was supposed to be – Pittsburgh and Washington, Crosby and Ovechkin battling in the games that mattered most for the right to carry the Stanley Cup as their respective team’s captains. 

Who knew that their 2009 playoff matchup would be their only one as both players now ponder what will be the tenth season in the league for each next season?

Who knew that neither of them would be much of a difference maker in the post-seasons to follow, especially in the games that mattered even more among the games that mattered most?

Who knew that the conversation surrounding both players would be what qualities they lacked and not what Stanley Cups they won?

Who knew?

Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Metropolitan Division Semifinals: Capitals at Rangers, Game 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

As faithfully as the swallows return to Capistrano, as reliably as the sun rises in the east, as unfailingly as Mike Milbury will say something derogatory against Alex Ovechkin, the Ovechkin-led Washington Capitals will face the New York Rangers in Game 1 of their Metropolitan Division Semifinals matchup at Madison Squarer Garden in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

“Uh…cuz?”

In a minute, Cheerless.  This marks the fourth consecutive year that the Caps and Rangers have met in the post-season and the fifth time in the last six seasons…

“Cousin…a moment, if you please?”

Hold on, Fearless.  In their four meetings over the past five years the Caps won the first two engagements, while the Blueshirts won the last two.  Three of those series went a full seven games, the Caps winning one and the Rangers a pair. 

“Cousin!...”

Guys, I’m trying to work here…can’t this wait?  The Caps will come into this series with… hey…  HEY!!  What are you two…mmph… mmph-mmph.

“Calm down, cuz… we’re doing this for your own good.”

MMPH…HEY!  GET THIS GAG OUT OF MY MOU…

“Now cousin, just think of this as an intervention.”

“Yeah, cuz.  We’re all trying to deal with this whole ‘no playoffs thing’ in our own way.”

BUT MY READERS!

“What, all 14 of them?”

THEY’RE DEPENDING ON ME!!!

‘Someone has a rather inflated view of themselves”

MMPH!...MMPH!!

There, there cuz.  You’ll be fine in time for training camp.”

BUT….BUT…THERE’S THE DRAFT…AND FREE AGENCY….AND D-CAMP…

“There will be time enough for that, cousin.”

AND THE RANGERS!!!  DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE RANGERS!!!

“As if we could, cuz… as if we could.”

LUNDQVI-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-I-IST!!!






Tuesday, October 01, 2013

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- The End of It


Today, they start playing for real for the 2013-2014 NHL season as a member of the new Metropolitan Division of the National Hockey League.  Are the Washington Capitals prepared?  We have reason to think they are.  Why?  There are several reasons.

Five-on-Five

This speaks to the heart of the lack of depth at the center position over the last several years.  Yes, last year Mike Ribeiro was quite effective on the power play; he led all NHL centers in power play assists and points last season.  But Ribeiro was 32nd in the league in even-strength points.  Small wonder.  Of 184 NHL centers playing in at least 20 games last season, Ribeiro was 156th in 5-on-5 Corsi/on-ice.  He was 158th in Corsi relative (on-ice less off-ice; numbers from behindthenet.ca).  The Caps ended up 10th in 5-on-5 goals-scored to goals-allowed ratio, right between Tampa Bay and Phoenix. 

Now, you might say, “Peerless, Mikhail Grabovski was not a whole lot better.”  True, Grabovski was 164th among those centers last season in Corsi/on-ice at fives.  He was 81st in Corsi relative.  But that was as much a product (if not more) of the way Grabovski was used by Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Randy Carlyle – as a checking line player – than it was deficiency on the part of the player.  Go back to 2011-2012, when Grabovski was used more in a top-six role.  Among 164 centers playing in at least 40 games he was 30th in Corsi/on-ice at 5-on-5 and seventh in Corsi relative.  Washington’s possession numbers at 5-on-5 will be improved on the second line and thus will be improved overall.  That 5-on-5 goals-scored to goals-allowed ratio will improve.

Power Play 

Last season the Caps were tops in the league in the power play, converting almost 27 percent of their chances.  The easy argument to make here is that with Ribeiro – the league’s top power play point producer – having departed for Phoenix, the Caps’ power play will suffer.  This is where we make a distinction between “productivity” and “performance.” 

It is entirely likely that the Caps will not convert as large a share of their chances this year as they did last season (a point to which we will return in a moment).  Their “outputs” (goals) as a share of “input’ (total chances) will be lower, and productivity will be down.  But ah, there is that whole possession thing again.  This is where we return to chances.  The Caps were 14th in the league in power play chances last season.  It took them that 26.8 percent conversion rate to sneak past Pittsburgh for the top spot in power play goals scored.  This season, with better possession numbers, one might expect more chances to draw penalties and more power play chances.

Gray Hair 

Two weeks ago, Alex Ovechkin turned 28.  It has been noted that his hair is marked with flecks of gray.    It is not the twilight of his career, by any means, but there is a bit more urgency to fill in the last big piece on his resume – a Stanley Cup.  The big stars in his draft cohort have their prizes.  Evgeni Malkin, taken with the pick after Ovechkin in 205, Sidney Crosby from 2005, Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Patrick Kane, Drew Doughty.  All top five picks taken in the same draft or later than Ovechkin.

He is still performing at a high level.  Being last year’s Hart Trophy winner attests to that.  But he is a more settled player now – settled into his captaincy role, settled into his place in the ensemble.  He is still the straw that stirs the drink, but he is not as much the showman that he was when he was 23.  The maturity that comes with age might be the last piece he needs to push his team to the summit.

Health

Every team has a core – often a combination of forwards and defensemen – on which it depends.  Chicago has Kane, Toews, and Duncan Keith.  Those players missed a combined total of three regular season games last season on their way to a Stanley Cup.  In Los Angeles, Anze Kopitar Dustin Brown, and Drew Doughty missed a total of five games on their march to a championship in 2012.  In 2011 Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara, and Milan Lucic missed a combined six games.  In 2010 Kane, Toews and Keith missed a combined six games.  See a pattern?  Stanley Cup winners have good fortune when it comes to health.  The Caps are as healthy as they have been in recent years (Mike Green, we’re looking at you). Even Brooks Laich, who appears to have an annoying hip flexor problem, has not had a recurrence of his groin problems.

Depth and Options

It’s not the “strength and honor” line you might remember from the movie, “Gladiator,” but this might be as important a theme for the Caps as it was for Roman soldiers.  At left wing their depth chart looks like Marcus Johansson, Brooks Laich, and Jason Chimera.  That is a group that combined for only ten goals in 90 man-games last season (Laich having health problems, Chimera not being able to find the net on 3.3 percent shooting).  But the year before they combined for 50 goals in 244 man games.  That a 17-goal average per 82-games. 

At right wing the depth chart looks like Alex Ovechkin, Troy Brouwer, and Eric Fehr.  That trip accounted for 60 goals in 136 games last season, a 36-goal average per 82 games.  Brouwer might not repeat his career best goals per game from last year, but Ovechkin and Fehr are not far outside their performance comfort level.

The center depth is what is noteworthy, give the decade-long lack of it.  Nicklas Backstrom, Mikhail Grabovski, and (perhaps) Martin Erat are all players in their respective prime (Erat the oldest at 32, Backstrom the youngest at 25).  They are all experienced (1,512 regular season games of experience).  They are all productive; the three of them average as a group 20-41-60 per-82 games per man.

With this kind of depth among the three forward lines, head coach Adam Oates has options in finding the right chemistry.  The only set positions, one would think, are the first and second line centers, and the first line right wing.  After that, Oates has players who have demonstrated a level of performance to be not out of place anywhere among the top three forward lines.

The defense has more limited options, but there is an intriguing process that could unfold as the season moves along.  There is a question mark for the Caps after one gets past their top three of Mike Green, Karl Alzner, and John Carlson.  But, if you have lemons, make lemonade.  The Caps have a number of players who, if they have different skill sets (Jack Hillen at one end and, say, John Erskine at the other), enough experience among them in Hillen, Erskine, and Steve Oleksy to try to cobble together a functioning third pair.  Still, this is the weak underbelly of this team.  However, as we will see later, expect this to be addressed.

A Solid Foundation

That sounds like the lost subtitle of a Star Wars movie (maybe between “Revenge of the Sith” and “A New Hope”), but here it applies to the Caps’ goaltending situation.  When it was Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov duking it out to see which would emerge as the number one goaltender, it was a case of two talented guys with next to no game experience at this level.  By the time Varlamov was traded to Colorado in 2011 he had played in only 59 regular season and 19 playoff games for the Caps over three seasons.  At the same time, Neuvirth had played in just 70 regular season and nine playoff games.  That is 157 games of total NHL experience.

Braden Holtby has 157 games of regular season game experience under his belt going into this season.  Plus, he served a complete apprenticeship, brought along deliberately by the Caps after his selection in the 2008 draft.  Perhaps more important, Holtby has been tested in the crucible of the post-season – much more than a goalie of his limited regular season experience might suggest.  He has 21 post season appearances in which he has posted a 2.04 goals against average and a .931 save percentage.  How many goalies have done better over the last two seasons?  Two: Jonathan Quick and Henrik Lundqvist.

Then there is Neuvirth.  He has added 51 games of experience since the Varlamov trade.  He has struggled some in those games (17-17-7 win-loss record, a GAA north of 2.50, a save percentage south of .910), but he has a lot more game and playoff experience than most backup goaltenders.  This is as solid a goaltending foundation as the Caps have had at any time since Olaf Kolzig left the club.

The Long Game

It is October.  Capital Nation is grousing about this move or that, this move not made or that.  Since 2007-2008, general manager George McPhee has added the following notables in-season… Cristobal Huet, Sergei Fedorov, Matt Cooke, Jason Chimera, Eric Belanger, Joe Corvo, Milan Jurcina, Scott Walker, Scott Hannan, Marco Sturm, Dennis Wideman, and Jason Arnott.  They will not be noisy about it, they will downplay their activity in the market, they will not let you see it coming, but it seems likely that they will be actively (if quietly) looking to tweak their roster further over the next five months.

The Rest of the Playbook

We cannot know at this moment if the Caps got the full Adam Oates treatment last season.  Intuitively, the lack of a full training camp, a cramped schedule, and unfamiliarity bred of newness could lead one to believe that there was still more in the playbook that was left to this season to introduce.  Adam Oates has had that full training camp.  He has a clearer picture of what he has here.  There could be some surprises or wrinkles left to spring.

***** 

This is as complete a squad the Washington Capitals have iced since their Stanley Cup finals team in 1998.  They have depth and versatility at forward.  They have very good and improving top end defense.  They have a healthy mix of youth and experience – in the same players – in goal.  They have an imaginative technician and effective communicator behind the bench.  They are not flashy, but they are active in player markets to address needs. 

The Caps will not win the Presidents Trophy (Chicago will).  They will not win the Metropolitan Division (Pittsburgh is our pick).  No matter.  The Caps have won both, a Presidents Trophy in 2010 and the Southeast Division title seven times.  A lot of good it did them.  No, they will not win those titles.  They will win the one that matters.  Write it down…

Washington Capitals
Stanley Cup Champions 2014