Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Goaltenders: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

“When I have reached a summit, I leave it with great reluctance, unless it is to reach for another, higher one.”

-- Gustav Mahler

Maybe it’s the…turkey.  Braden Holtby has appeared in 178 regular season games in his five-year career.  He really has two different performance profiles, separated by, of all things, Thanksgiving.  In 41 career games before Turkey Day, Holtby is 19-15-5, 2.65, .914, with two shutouts.  After the bird, stuffing, cranberries, and pumpkin pie, he is 82-36-13, 2.38, .923, with 18 shutouts.

Things were not much different in 2014-2015.  Before Thanksgiving, Holtby was 7-5-3, 2.28, .915, with one shutout.  He did not win more than two consecutive decisions in 16 appearances.  After Thanksgiving was another story. Holtby was 34-15-7, 2.20, .925, with eight shutouts, and seven times in his 56 appearances he had three consecutive wins.

It started with his going on a tear in December.  After going 1-2-0 in three appearances after Thanksgiving, Holtby had a 19-appearance span, from December 4^th through January 14^th, in which he went 14-1-4, 1.88, .938, with three shutouts, one of those wins being a 33-save effort in the Caps’ 3-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks in the Winter Classic at Nationals Park.  Only twice in his last 54 appearances of the season did Holtby lose consecutive games in regulation, losing three in a row, February 22-27, then losing consecutive games in regulation, March 11-13.

Holtby’s 2014-2015 season was one that Caps fans might have drawn up, if not anticipated.  He struggled some early, perhaps owing to a new goaltending coach, Mitch Korn.  However, the light came on over Holtby’s head in terms of what wisdom Korn was imparting after that sluggish start, and coupled with his own natural development as a still-young goaltender, he pieced together one of the best seasons by any goaltender in 2014-2015.  He finished among the top netminders in the league in a variety of categories:

• Games: 73 (1st)
• Minutes: 4,247 (1st)
• Wins: 41 (T-2nd)
• Goals Against Average: 2.22 (5th)
• Save Percentage: .923 (8th)
• Shutouts: 9 (T-2nd)
• Save Percentage, even strength: .929 (10th; minimum: 41 games)
• Save Percentage, shorthanded: .889 (8th, minimum: 41 games)

It was a season that was eerily similar to the season Olaf Kolzig had for the Caps in 1999-2000, his Vezina Trophy-winning year:

It was also a season in which Holbty set or nearly set a number of club records:

• Games: 73 (T-1^st, Kolzig 1999-2000)
• Wins: 41 (T-1^st, Kolzig 1999-2000)
• Minutes: 4,247 (3^rd)
• Goals Against Average: 2.22 (2^nd, minimum 50 games)
• Save Percentage: .923 (1^st, minimum 50 games)
• Shutouts: 9 (T-1^st, Carey 1995-1996)

In putting together his season, Holtby became just the third goaltender since the 2004-2005 lockout to appear in at least 70 games, post a goals against average of less than 2.25, finish with a save percentage of at least .920, and record nine or more shutouts (Miikka Kiprusoff in 2005-2006 and Martin Brodeur in 2006-2007 were the others).

Fearless’ Take…

Best goals against (1.71), best save percentage (.944), second best even strength save percentage (.943), best shorthanded save percentage (.947).  And still, with all that, Holtby still finished just 6-7 in the post season last spring.  He is the only goaltender in the post 2005-2006 era to have appeared in at least 20 postseason games, posted a goals against average of less than 2.00 (1.92) and a save percentage of better than .930 (.936).  And, he has two shutouts on top of that.  And still, his win-loss record is 16-18.

And if anything, his second round performances have been better than his first round games.  In first round playoff games, Holtby is 10-10, 1.97, .935, with one shutout.  In second round games he is 6-8, 1.85, .937, with one shutout.  The Hockey Gods owe Braden Holtby.

Cheerless’ Take…

As long as we’re talkin’ playoffs, cuz, maybe what the Hockey Gods owe is for the Caps to close out series in five or fewer games.  In Games 1-5 across five postseason series, Holtby is 13-11, 1.78, .941, with two shutouts.  In Games 6 and 7 over those same five postseason series, he is 3-7, 2.26, .922 and no shutouts.  Now, some of that is that stinker of a Game 7 he had in 2013 against the Rangers when he gave up five goals on the first 22 shots he faced in a 5-0 loss.  He has allowed only six goals in four other Games 7.  But it is always something with this team.

The Big Question… Braden Holtby had an elite season, but is he now an elite goaltender?

If you are going to consider the question of whether Braden Holtby is an elite goaltender, it might be helpful to consider the path he has taken and how that compares to those goalies to whom he might be compared.  So, let’s take a look at Holtby’s 178-game career to date and compare that with some who might be widely considered as “elite” and their first 178 games:

Clearly, he is on a path to “elite,” compared to the same span of games to start his career as others in that category.  However, while his early career has been impressive, especially in the context of the current era, he has been the unchallenged number one goaltender for only one of his five seasons to date.  Not all of that is his doing, his 2013-2014 season spoiled by ineffective management of his game by then head coach Adam Oates.  Still, there is the faint notion of “do it one more time” hovering about before he could be firmly called “elite.” 

In the end…

From the time Olaf Kolzig put the Caps on his shoulders and carried them to the Stanley Cup final in 1998 until Braden Holtby appeared in his first post season game, six goaltenders manned the crease for the Capitals, including Kolzig.  It was not an especially noteworthy part of Capitals playoff history.  Combined, the sextet of Kolzig, Cristobal Huet, Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth, Jose Theodore, and Craig Billington went 22-32, 2.59, .906, with five shutouts. They were a combined 12-22 in one-goal games.

Holtby is the goaltender the Caps have not had, at least in the postseason, since Kolzig’s big year in 1998.  There is still the matter of how he does late in postseason series, but then again, he is tied for 19^th among NHL goalies in total playoff games played since 2005-2006.  The games played statistic is an interesting one for Holtby.  It is entirely likely that by the time this year’s postseason ends, he will be the all-time franchise leader in playoff games played; Kolzig appeared in 45 games in his career, Holtby has appeared in 34 to date. 

You could say that unless he shatters that mark, this will have been a disappointing season for him and for the Caps.  Unlike previous seasons and previous goaltenders, though, Holtby should not have to bear an outsized share of the burden to carry the Caps into and through the postseason.  The team around him is deep, experienced, and skilled.  That – and having a goaltender on the cusp of “elite” status – are luxuries with which the club and its fans have not been well acquainted over the history of the franchise. 

At an individual level, the talent surrounding him should allow Holtby to focus on his game, not on having to be the best player on the ice for the Caps, as he was for many games last season.  With that burden lifted, he might find that he is just as often the best player on the ice and perhaps the best goaltender in the league.  Another summit to reach for.

Projection: 39-19-6, 2.23, .922, six shutouts

Photo: Joel Auerbach/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Goaltenders: Philipp Grubauer

Philipp Grubauer

“It does not matter how slowly you go so long as you do not stop.”

-- Confucius

When Washington Capitals goaltender Philipp Grubauer was 15 years old, he played six games for the Starbulls Rosenheim Jr. club in Germany and had a goals against average of 8.31.  Come October 10th, he will be on the bench for the Capitals, a goaltender capable of productive minutes in the NHL, as his 20 games of NHL experience to date demonstrates.

In between, Grubauer has moved along, step by step, graduating to the Starbulls Rosenheim before moving on to the Ontario Hockey League, from which he was drafted by the Caps in 2010 (fourth round/112th overall).  He would play for three different teams in the OHL, with a couple of appearances in international tournaments along the way, before joining the South Carolina Stingrays of the ECHL in 2011.  A 23-win season later, he split time between the ECHL’s Reading Royals and the AHL Hershey Bears in 2012-2013, and even got a cup o’ coffee with the Caps (two games) that season.  Grubauer split his time between Hershey (28 games) and Washington (17 games) in 2013-2014.

With the Caps signing Justin Peters to fill the backup goaltending role to Braden Holtby last season, the idea was for Grubauer to be the number one netminder in Hershey for a full season.  He went 27-17-5, 2.30, .921, with six shutouts.  His 27 wins ranked third in the AHL, his save percentage ranked ninth, his goals against average was 12th, and he finished tied for third in shutouts.

However, it was a playoff game he did not play with the Bears that might have clinched his opportunity to serve as the full-time backup to Braden Holtby this season.  Holtby was ill before Game 1 against the New York Islanders, but he played in a 4-1 Capitals defeat.  He could not answer the bell in Game 2, though.  In jeopardy of going down to an 0-2 deficit at home, Grubauer got the call for what would be his first NHL playoff game.  He allowed an early goal by Cal Clutterbuck on a perfectly place shot over his left shoulder and under the crossbar, then allowed a second period goal to Ryan Strome through a maze of players in front.  The clubs exchanged goals mid-way through the period, but for the Islanders there would be no more.  Grubauer stopped the last eight shots he faced while the Caps clawed their way back to tie the game early in the third period, then won it on a goal by Jason Chimera.  Grubauer’s line was not particularly impressive overall (18 saves on 21 shots), but he was sturdy late, and instead of going to Long Island down a pair of games, the Caps got their legs under them, going on to win the series in seven games.  It was among the most important wins of the season for the Caps.

Fearless’ Take…

Odd thing about Grubauer; his save percentage has improved at each stop.  Is was .862 in the OHL, .916 in the ECHL, .919 in the AHL, and .924 in 20 regular season games so far with the Caps.  He was the ninth goaltender taken in the 2010 draft and has appeared in almost as many NHL regular season games as all those taken ahead of him (21).  Only Calvin Pickard (16 games so far, taken in the second round/49th overall by Colorado) has a better career save percentage to date among 2010-drafted goalies (.932 to Grubauer’s .924).  And here is your obscure Grubauer fact… Of 134 goaltenders playing at least 350 minutes at 5-on-5 in tied-game situations over the last three seasons, he has the seventh-best high-danger save percentage (.900, numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Cheerless’ Take…

OK, cuz, here’s a not so obscure Grubauer fact… 4-7, 3.54, .901.  That’s his postseason record with Hershey over two playoff years (2013, 2015).  You might have liked to see better numbers for a guy who was to get number one postseason minutes and who was being groomed to be at the very least a reasonable backup for Braden Holtby.

The Big Question… Is Philipp Grubauer the best available option to be Washington’ backup goaltender?

There are other ways one can frame this question?  Can he avoid being a liability if he gets 20-25 appearances?  Can he serve as a credible number one goalie if Holtby slumps or gets nicked up?  Can he inspire confidence in the players in front of him?  Twenty games of NHL experience is not a large population of games from which to draw conclusions.  However, there is little left for Grubauer to prove at Hershey. 

On the other hand, the Caps do have some insurance in Justin Peters (who underwent arthroscopic knee surgery over the summer) and free agent signing Dan Ellis.  Between them they have 292 games of regular season experience.  In that respect, it might be more accurate to say that Grubauer will be given every opportunity to demonstrate that the next rung on the developmental ladder – backup goaltender – is one he can reliably fill.

In the end…

Philipp Grubauer has the potential to be another overachieving draft pick at the goaltending position for the Caps, relative to his draft position. Both he and Braden Hotlby are former fourth round picks, made two seasons apart by the Capitals.  If anything, his advancement has been more rapid (105 regular season games in junior to 177 for Holtby, 97 games in minor professional leagues to 144 for Holltby).

What he has not yet had is the “ah-HA” moment that establishes him as a player with true potential to assume number one goaltending minutes.  Holtby had that moment in the 2012 playoffs when posted a sub-2.00 goals against average and a .930-plus save percentage in 14 games.  What the Caps and their fans would prefer is that he not have so much an “ah-HA” moment (Holtby’s came as a product of injuries to goalies ahead of him on the depth chart) as sure, steady progress in learning his craft. That would be quite enough, for the time being, for the only graduate of Starbulls Rosenheim Jr. to reach the NHL. 

Projection: 21 games, 10-6-2, 2.40, .920

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Defensemen: Nate Schmidt

Nate Schmidt

“True progress quietly and persistently moves along without notice.”

-- Saint Francis de Sales

Three years learning his craft with the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers, 78 regular season and playoff games over two seasons with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, 68 games over two seasons with the Washington Capitals.  At the age of 24, Nate Schmidt has measured his progress as a defenseman slowly, but steadily over the past five years.

Now, as the 2015-2016 season is about to begin, Schmidt finds himself holding a roster spot with the Capitals, where he is penciled in as a defenseman on the third pair, likely with Dmitry Orlov.  The achievements along the way have been modest, but not insignificant.  At Minnesota, Schmidt was 12-62-74 in 96 games and was a first team selection for the Western Collegiate Hockey Association all-star team in 2013.  With the Bears, he was 6-19-25 in 65 regular season games and added four goals and seven assists in 13 postseason contests.  With the Caps, he was 3-7-10 in 68 games.

What he has not yet had with the parent club, though, is the chance to play a full season, to finish the season on the ice with the Caps.  In 2013-2014, the NHL portion of his season ended in late January, and last season it ended in late March.

Last season was a difficult one for Schmidt.  Well, perhaps not so much “difficult” as “uneven.”  He started the season in Washington and was, in fact, in the Opening Night lineup against the Montreal Canadiens.  He struggled, though, at least in the offensive end of the ice, not recording a point in his first 14 games despite averaging almost 15 minutes a game in ice time.

While Schmidt was never able to get much traction in the offensive end, recording only two points in his first 18 games, problems at the other end started creeping into his game thereafter.  His ice time started to be scaled back in early December, eventually cut back to 9:45 in ice time, his low for the season, in the Caps’ last game before Christmas, a 4-2 loss to the Rangers in New York. 

Schmidt appeared in one more game before being reassigned to Hershey in the AHL in January, then was called up in March to appear in six more games before being sent back to Hershey in late March, ending the Capitals portion of his season.  After that 18-game start in which he had just two points but was a plus-8, he played his last 21 games to a 1-1-2 scoring line, but a minus-10, finishing the season 1-3-4, minus-2 in 39 games overall.

Fearless’ Take…

In small sample sizes (29 games in 2013-2014 and 39 games in 2014-2015) Schmidt has been a good possession player: 50.6 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in 2013-2014 and 53.9 percent in 2014-2015.  Moreover, he was rather consistent in this regard.  He was at or above 50 percent in 28 of his 39 games last season and only once was he under 50 percent in consecutive games, a back-to back set against Chicago and Carolina in which he finished at 21.1 percent and 44.8 percent (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).  He was virtually unchanged in close-score situations, where his Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 was 53.7 percent last season, and he was at or above 50 percent 29 times in 39 games.  And consider this; of the 17 forwards with whom Schmidt skated any 5-on-5 minutes last season, 15 of those forwards had better Corsi-for percentages with Schmidt than apart from him.  The exceptions were Andre Burakovsky (minus-4.1) and Michael Latta (minus-2.8).  He skated 125 of his 513 5-on-5 minutes with Burakovsky, 73 with Latta.  At a fundamental level, he played well in his limited opportunities last season, even if his performance numbers lagged.

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah, yeah…fancystats and all that.  In the end, as Peerless likes to say, it’s about scoring goals and preventing goals, and there wasn’t enough of either for Schmidt last season.  But that’s okay, he’s a young guy; he’s got only 68 games under his belt (do hockey players wear belts?).  He might have had more games with the Caps but for a fractured shoulder blade he suffered in January, right after he was returned to Hershey.  After he returned to the ice he managed only one goal in 17 regular season games with the Bears (1-5-6 overall), but he did have quite a playoff – 4-5-9, plus-3 in eight games. 

In the end…

Nate Schmidt was ranked 163rd among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting in advance of the 2009 entry draft.   That he would likely start for the Washington Capitals on Opening Night barely six years later is no mean achievement. 

On the other hand, the clock is ticking on his development (he turned 24 in July), and one would like to see him take a significant step this season.  It would seem likely he will get his chance.  He is penciled into the third defensive pair, with Dmitry Orlov, a pair that has many more questions attached to it than answers.

Schmidt is at that point in a young player’s development where he has some experience (68 games with the Caps, 78 with the Bears), that he could show significant improvement – not so much an incremental step as one that gives a better hint of what his upside is.  So far, his progress has been quiet and persistent, and under the radar.  This year, with a steady diet of ice time being offered to him, his progress could be a bit splashier.

Projection: 61 games, 3-6-9, even

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Defensemen: Brooks Orpik

Brooks Orpik

“You must become an old man in good time if you wish to be an old man long.”

-- Marcus Aurelius

When the 2014-2015 season ended, only 26 active defensemen had appeared in more career regular season games than Brooks Orpik (781); only 13 appeared in more postseason games (106).  Orpik played in 78 of those regular season games and 14 of those playoff games with the Caps last year.  He acquitted himself fairly well for a man whose free agent contract signed with the Caps in the summer of 2014 was called a “bad signing,” a “puzzler,” and “the worst July 1 free agent signing.” 

At a high level, it was a decent year for Orpik.  His 19 points (all assists) tied his second highest point total for a season in his career, his 168 total shot attempts was a career best, as was his total shots on goal (66), and his 1,700 total minutes played set a career high.  For the ninth time in 10 full seasons (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) he appeared in 70 or more games.  And, a certain orneriness was still evident in his game.  Orpik finished third (first among defensemen) in credited hits last season – 306, a number that was 85 more than he was credited with in Pittsburgh the previous season and only three fewer than his career best, set in 2008-2009.

What he did not have – does not yet have with the Capitals – was a goal scored.  In fact, although Orpik is hardly considered an “offensive” defenseman (13 goals in 703 games coming into last season), his first year with the Capitals was the first in his career in which he appeared in more than 70 games and did not register a goal.  He is now at 91 regular season games and counting without a goal. 

And here is another odd fact with respect to Orpik and goals.  No active player in the NHL has played as many regular season games as Orpik (781) without having scored a game-winning goal in his career.  Oddly enough, the next player on that active list is former Capital (if briefly) defenseman Tim Gleason – no game-winners in 727 career regular season games.

Fearless’ Take…

Time on ice was a pretty good indicator of success with respect to Orpik.  In games in which he skated more than 25 minutes, the Caps were 4-0-2.  In those instances in which he skated between 20 and 25 minutes, they were 35-13-7.  Less than 20 minutes on Orpik’s time on ice record, and the Caps were 4-11-2.  There is likely a chicken and egg effect here, Orpik, being a defensive defenseman with little offensive impact, might very well have been getting less ice time in games in which the Caps trailed late.  And, the Caps were 15-1-1 in games in which Orpik recorded a point, the only loss in regulation coming in his last game of the regular season.  Score one (or 19, as in “assists”) for secondary scoring.

Cheerless’ Take…

I’ll take “Words that Start with the Letters “Po,’ Alex.”  “Po,” as in “possession” and “poor.”  On a personal basis, Orpik finished with a better Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.6) than he did in either of his last two seasons in Pittsburgh (44.4 in 2012-2013, 46.2 in 2013-2014), but on a higher level – Corsi-for/relative – he finished in minus territory (minus-2.4) for the fifth straight season.  Orpik skated the bulk of his 5-on-5 ice time (1,151 minutes) with John Carlson on the Capitals’ first defense pairing.  The difference between Carlson’s Corsi-for percentage with Orpik (49.7) and when apart (59.1) was stunning (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com), and not in a good way (note: Carlson skated only 216 5-on-5 minutes apart from Orpik last season).  It was similar with the other defenseman logging more than 100 minutes at 5-on-5 with Orpik, Matt Niskanen (42.7 with, 52.8 apart from Orpik).  At a more granular level (did I use that word right, cuz?), Orpik had a challenging season.

The Big Question… How serious are Orpik’s possession issues going forward?

There is an interesting, even hopeful fact about Orpik’s possession numbers in 2014-2015.  In each of his first four ten-game segments, he was below 50 percent Corsi-for.  In his last four segments, including an eight-game segment to close the season, he was over 50 percent.  He was also marginally better overall in close-score situations, just under 50 percent for the season (49.8/minus-7 overall).  There is also his Fenwick profile (shot attempts less those attempts that are blocked).  Orpik was over 50 percent – barely – for the season in all situations (50.1) and was a bit better in close score situations (50.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Last season being Year 1 in what is a five-year contract with Washington, the numbers serve as a baseline for evaluating his performance going forward.  There is some concern about this.  Orpik turned 35 this past weekend, and he does have those 886 regular season and playoff games on his resume.  They have not been an easy 886 games, either. 

In the end…

No one is asking Brooks Orpik to score goals, game-winners or otherwise (nice as it might be), or do much of anything else one might associate with an offensive defenseman, except move the puck smartly out of his own zone.  He is something of a throwback, an almost exclusively defensive defenseman with a touch of orneriness who can, as much as the current rules allow, keep the front of his net clear.

The further one drills into Orpik’s numbers from last season, the less attractive they become.  Underneath it all, while he improved over the course of the season, there were possession issues, particularly in the manner in which partners improved their possession numbers when apart from him at 5-on-5. 

However, looking in the other direction – upward through the numbers toward those “intangibles” – his impacts are a little different.  He does have his name on the Stanley Cup.  He does have more than 800 games of regular season and playoff experience.  He does deliver a certain durability and consistency on the ice (his status after off-season wrist surgery notwithstanding).  He is, in a sense, comparable on the blue line to what Mike Knuble was five years ago – a veteran who can deliver solid minutes on the ice and leadership in the locker room.  He is about to enter his second year as the old man of the defense.  Caps fans will be hoping he can be that “old man long” of which the ancient emperor spoke.

Projection: 73 games, 1-13-14, plus-4

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Defensemen: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov

“For once you have tasted flight you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards, for there you have been and there you will long to return.”

-- Leonardo da Vinci

Assuming Dmitry Orlov is on the Opening Night roster for the Washington Capitals, it will have been 545 days between NHL games for the young defenseman.  Since he appeared in 60 games in his rookie season in 2011-2012, one in which he went 3-16-19 and finished fourth among rookie defensemen in scoring, Orlov has missed 153 of the Caps’ last 212 games over three seasons, including the entire 2014-2015 season to a broken wrist.  It is hard to remember that Orlov, as a rookie, was third among Caps’ defensemen in scoring despite being only sixth in average ice time and appearing in only those 60 games.

After missing all that time trying to comeback from a broken wrist, and before that the after effects of a concussion suffered in November 2012, Orlov has to demonstrate he is durable enough to shoulder the load of an 82-game season.  He will come into the 2015-2016 season penciled in on the third pair for the Caps, where he might be expected to skate 15 minutes or so a night.

For the moment, Orlov is what he was back in those days in 2011-2012 – mostly “potential.”  The reason he is not all potential is that despite all the time missed he is still 14^th in his 2009 draft class in games played (119) and points (310 among the 70 defensemen selected. 

Fearless’ Take…

If you are an optimist, there still is not much to go on with respect to Orlov and his potential to nail down that third-pair responsibility.  There is this, though.  He had 65 games of experience at Hershey where he was 9-26-35, with another ten games of playoff experience with the Bears, going 1-3-4.  It suggests at least the possibility that he could be a contributor in the offensive end of the ice.  And, he can throw the occasional open-ice hip check, if folks have forgotten…

Cheerless’ Take…

There is the 545 days between games played, there is the fact that two of the five defensemen Orlov played with in his last game for the Caps are no longer in the organization (for the record: Julien Bruoillette and Tyson Strachan) and a third (Connor Carrick) seems unlikely to start the season in Washington.  In fact, only eight skaters with whom Orlov played the last time he dressed for an NHL game are likely to be taking the ice with him on Opening Night.  One might expect that there will be rust.  Not “rust dripping off the bow of the Titanic wreck” thick, but some nonetheless.

The Big Question… Is it reasonable to think Dmitry Orlov can put together a complete season in his first after missing so much time?

The problem for Orlov is that his injury bug hit right in the middle of his early development phase.  He is still just 24 years old, but he is going to be asked to assume a full share of ice time having missed the better part of three seasons in his development.  That could mean that he looks more like a 22-year old rookie for long stretches this season than one might normally expect, especially early in the season.  On the other hand, he does have those 119 games of regular season experience, and that could lead one to think (hope?) that the rust falls off quickly and that he resumes his climb upward on his development arc.

In the end…

Playing teams that have legitimate shots at a championship usually means that one has to find those soft spots to exploit to be successful in defeating them.  Dmitry Orlov could be a soft spot for the Caps, at least in the early going.  He has missed a ton of games over the last three seasons, and he is still a developing player, one with his development stunted by those injuries and time missed.  In a sense, he is, if not starting over, than starting a couple of squares back on the game board.

It is probably not reasonable to think that he is going to come out of the gate prepared to be a consistent performer.  He and Nate Schmidt on that third defensive pair could be a pairing that opponents seek to exploit on a nightly basis.  In an odd way, it makes Orlov a suitable measuring stick for how the Caps are doing as the season progresses.  They are a team than cannot have good work done elsewhere negated by mistakes made by a young defensive pair.  In that respect, the objectives for Orlov’s season as it progresses are durability and improvement.  He exhibited the latter over the early part of his career, but has struggled with the former.  What makes it especially important for Orlov to be more durable is that, for the moment, the Capitals do not have very attractive options at the sixth defenseman position if he is unavailable.

That it has been a long time coming for Orlov to be healthy and in the Caps’ lineup is something of an incentive for Orlov to perform, and there is a danger there of trying to do too much before he has his game legs under him and sturdy once more.  Still, it would be hard to think that Orlov would lack for effort as he assumes a regular spot in the lineup; it is a place he has missed and Caps fans have longed for him to return.  That could help him to a productive season in the end.

Projection: 62 games, 5-13-18, plus-2

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Defensemen: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen

“The two most engaging powers of an author are to make new things familiar, familiar things new.”

-- William Makepeace Thackeray

If you compared Matt Niskanen’s first season with the Washington Capitals with the season he had going into free agency – a season that resulted in a seven year/$40.25 million contract with the Caps – you might conclude that he slipped a bit.  His goals scored dropped from ten to four, assists from 36 to 27, points from 46 to 31, power play points from 15 to 10, shooting percentage from 6.2 to 3.4.  And, whereas he earned votes for the NHL all-star team and the Norris Trophy in 2013-2014 with the Pittsburgh Penguins, he earned votes for neither in 2014-2015 with the Caps.

Ah, but if you look at that table above, you will see that Niskanen’s first season with the Caps was squarely in line with his career numbers, the shortfall in goals perhaps a product of a shooting percentage that ranks in the lower half of his career results, by season, and was his worst (please note) since his first full season in Pittsburgh (both being 3.4 percent).

As it was, Niskanen still finished third among Caps defensemen in points (31), second in power play goals (2), second in total ice time (22:21), first in even strength ice time per game (19:00), second in hits (143), second in takeaways (34), and he did it playing in every game for the first time in his eight-year career.  It was the profile of a solid all-around season, at least at a high level.

Underneath, it was a bit of an odd season.  Looking at his ten-game segments, there was a strange relationship among his numbers.  Early on, over his first 30 games, when he could score (2-10-12) he had a sluggish plus-minus (minus-6).  Then his scoring tapered a bit over his next 30 games (1-7-8), but his plus-minus soared (plus-13).  In his seventh segment he went dormant in production (0-1-1, plus-2), but then was hot as a firecracker in his last segment (actually, 12 games), going 1-9-10, but there was that pesky plus-minus (minus-2).  What made it stranger was the fact that he was a Corsi plus-32 while going minus-6 in those first 30 games, only a Corsi plus-15 in his next 30 games while going plus-13.  It made for a quirky season on a second-level.

Fearless’ Take…

Matt Niskanen has never been under 50 percent, Corsi-for, at even strength in his eight-year career.  His first season in Washington was no exception, with a 52.0 percent for the year.  On a segment-to-segment basis he was fairly consistent, at 50 percent of better between four and seven times over his eight ten-game segments.  His consistency carried over to his home and road performance.  In the friendly confines of Verizon Center, Niskanen was 3-13-16.  On the road, he was 1-14-15.  It makes sense.  Niskanen skated 1,122 shifts at home, 1,131 shifts on the road.  Consistent would be the adjective to describe his game.

Cheerless’ Take…

Matt Niskanen might want to burn most of the game tapes from the postseason.  Minus-4 in his first contest (Game 1 against the Islanders, a 4-1 loss), was an even or worse player in 10 of 14 games, had one point in his last nine playoff games, no goals in 14 games overall.  Overall it was his worst possession performance in six playoff seasons for Niskanen, the only time (49.0 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5) he finished below 50 percent.  And, he was even worse in close score situations (46.9 percent), also his worst career playoff result (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Here is an odd Niskanen postseason stat…he does not have a goal in his last 21 road games, dating back to April 18, 2012, when he had one of the ten goals the Penguins scored in Pittsburgh’s 10-3 win in Philadelphia over the Flyers.

The Big Question… Was last season merely a “warm-up” for a bigger season in 2015-2016?

In 2013-2014, Matt Niskanen had a career year – ten goals, 46 points, and his 162 shots on goal was more than a third higher than his previous high (118 shots on goal in 2011-2012).  He had as many even strength points (31) as he had in total for the Caps in 2014-2015.  What happened this season?  Deployment?  That might have had something to do with it.  His special teams ice time per game between last year in Pittsburgh (3:41) and this year in Washington (3:20) was almost the same.  However, he averaged almost three times as much power play time with the Penguins (2:59) as he did with the Caps (1:03).

But then there were the teammates.  Last season, Niskanen the largest portion of his 5-on-5 time (1,334 minutes) with forwards skating with Sidney Crosby (434 minutes), Jussi Jokinen (388 minutes), and Chris Kunitz (374 minutes; numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  This past season, he spent the bulk of his 5-on-5 ice time (1,440 minutes) with Nicklas Backstrom (473 minutes), Alex Ovechkin (457 minutes), and Marcus Johansson (395 minutes).  It was not exactly a downgrade in teammates.

His was something of a less than expected level of output, especially at evens (2-18-20, compared to that 7-24-31 in 2013-2014).  And, it did not appear tied to either ice time (he averaged more with the Caps at even strength than he did the previous season with Pittsburgh), or teammates.  However, looking back at his early days in Pittsburgh, it might not be that much an unexpected result.  After he was traded from Dallas to the Penguins in February 2011, he finished with just a goal and three assists in 18 games to finish the regular season.  He also struggled in the postseason that year, going 0-1-1, minus-3 in seven games. 

In the end…

Matt Niskanen had a solid year coming off a big signing in the off-season.  Okay, that playoff record needs work, but he did not sink under the weight of a big contract.  His regular season play was consistent in its results, even if he occasionally got there by different paths, looking at his ten-game splits.  Now that he is more familiar with Washington, his teammates, and his coaches, he could experience an improvement in his performance this season, if his experience in Pittsburgh is a guide.  It would be a bit much to think he would return to the level of performance he experienced with the Penguins in his last season there, but it would not be a surprise to find some improvement in Niskanen’s performance.

Projection: 80 games, 6-28-34, plus-7

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

-- Winston Churchill

From highly touted prospect (17^th in NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of North American skaters in 2008) to prolific amateur (87 points in 73 regular season and playoff games for the London Knights in the OHL), to skilled apprentice (49 points in 77 games and a Calder Cup with the Hershey Bears), to upstart NHL rookie (first in games played among rookie defensemen in 2010-2011, fourth in points, second in assists, second in plus-minus, first in game-winning goals), to up-and-coming professional (one of eight NHL defensemen with at least 350 games, 40 goals, and 150 points over the last five seasons), Washington Capital defenseman John Carlson’s hockey career to date has been one of almost unbroken achievement.

Oh, and there was that whole World Juniors game-winning, gold medal-clinching goal thing, too (obligatory video follows)…

Last season, his fifth full season in the NHL, Carlson took a great leap forward, both in responsibility and performance.  He led or ranked highly among the team’s defensemen in a number of categories:

• Games: 82 (1^st/T-1^st in NHL)
• Average ice time: 23:04 (1^st/34^th)
• Goals: 12 (1^st/T-11^th)
• Assists: 43 (1^st/T-4^th)
• Points: 55 (1^st/T-5^th)
• Power Play Goals: 3 (1^st/T-26^th)
• Power Play Assists: 13 (2^nd/T-15^th)
• Power Play Points: 16 (2^nd/T-20^th)
• Shorthanded Goals: 1 (1^st/T-3^rd)
• Shorthanded Time-On-Ice: 2:57 (1^st/T-15th)
• Blocked Shots: 200 (1^st/3^rd)
• Takeaways: 41 (1^st/T-17^th)

It was good enough for Carlson to finish tenth in voting among defensemen for the NHL all-star team and tenth in voting for the Norris Trophy as outstanding defenseman. 

It was something of a transition year for Carlson, less one of “prospect” or “developing youngster” than “top defenseman in waiting.”  With Mike Green’s uncertainty with respect to his contract and whether the Capitals would be able to afford an extension for the free agent to be, Carlson’s role expanded into one in which he took over as a top-pair defenseman (with a new partner, Brooks Orpik, replacing longtime partner Karl Alzner), Green relegated to the third pair.

Fearless’ Take…

Carlson and Karlsson, John and Erik.  Players in their first six seasons, age 25 or younger in season six, having played in at least 375 games, with at least 40 goals and at least 175 points.  Sure, P.K. Subban would be right there, too, but for the fact that he has “only” 366 games played, but it is still a pretty short list on which Carlson finds himself for durability and production.

Last season, Carlson experienced a significant improvement in his possession numbers.  In 2013-2014 his Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 was 48.1 percent, the lowest of his career at that time.  Last season, he raised that number to 51.3, his best since the 2010-2011 season.  Although the result might have been as much a case of a new coaching regime (his Corsi-for/Relative was still in negative territory (-0.2); numbers from war-on-ice.com), it was still a welcome result, especially for a player getting first pair minutes at 5-on-5.

Cheerless’ Take…

There’s this old saying…”defense wins championships.”  John Carlson had his own demonstration of the importance of defense last season.  On the one hand, his offense was not particularly influential in terms of outcomes.  The Caps were 23-12-5 in games in which he recorded at least one point (51 standings points in 40 games), 22-14-6 in games where he was held off the score sheet (50 points in 42 games).  On the other hand, the Caps were 30-4-7 in games in which no goals were scored when he was on the ice, 15-22-4 in games in which he was on the ice for at least one goal.  Seems he can go into the occasional weird funk in his own end; there were six times last year when he was on ice for a goal in three or more consecutive games.

The Big Question… Is John Carlson ready to step up to “elite” status among NHL defensemen?

The answer to this question needs to be prefaced with, “he will get his chances.”  With the departure of Mike Green, Carlson is the Caps’ number one defenseman.  He will get the number one power play ice time that he did not consistently get last season (he averaged 1:44/game compared to Green’s 2:45).  His even-strength ice time might be distributed a bit differently; the forwards with which he skated the first and fourth most minutes were third-liners Joel Ward (477) and Eric Fehr (424), and his even-strength ice time was reasonable equal among those two, Nicklas Backstrom (469) and Alex Ovechkin (466).

Given the increased responsibility Carlson is likely to shoulder this coming season, it bears noting that he will not turn 26 years of age until January.  It is reasonable to think that he is still on the upward slope of his development curve, that there is more upside to his game.  Given his almost unbroken rise through his development so far, “elite” would be the next stop on the ladder and certainly within reach.

In the end…

John Carlson is not the best defenseman in the league at any one thing.  Erik Karlsson might be a better offensive defenseman, Kris Letang might be a better power play performer, Brooks Orpik might be a bigger hitter, Ryan Suter might be a better defender, Drew Doughty might be a bigger minutes-eater.  Carlson is emerging as an exceptional two-way defenseman, not a finished product, by any means, given some lingering issues with consistency in his own end, but one with a promise of taking his place among the best in the game as that specie of defenseman.

It is precisely that two-way character of his game that is critical to Washington’s success this season.  In a sense, he is the defensemen’s version of Nicklas Backstrom, a player who can more than hold his own in any situation – even strength, power play, or penalty killing.  He could be the defenseman who is on the ice in the last minute of a game, whether the Caps are a goal behind, tied, or a goal in front.  That is one way to answer the question of whether or not a defenseman is or is not among the elite at his position in the NHL.

In that sense, Carlson’s “development” is almost, if not entirely, complete.  It is now a matter of performance, of meeting a standard by which defensemen of the highest caliber might be measured.  More than his numbers, how does he contribute to a winner?  It is a new beginning in John Carlson’s career.

Projection: 82 games, 15-45-60, plus-14

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

“I've spent most of my mature life trying to prove that I'm not irresponsible.”

-- Orson Welles

When the cream of the amateur crop was being evaluated in advance of the 2007 draft, here is what some pundits had to say about Karl Alzner…

“Alzner is clearly the top defender in this year's class because of the completeness of his game and the general assurance he will become a very good NHL defenseman without much "bust" potential. He understands the game and does all things very well, thus should be a very high pick.”

-- Mark Seidel, ESPN 

“A skilled stay-at-home defenseman with good skating ability… is calm under pressure and composed with the puck… has good positioning and reads the play well… has a strong shot from the point… wins battles along the boards and in his own zone…”

-- NHL Central Scouting

“Alzner is described by some a true modern-day defenceman, whose ability to play strong positionally and whose stick-on-puck, stick-on-stick game is good. He also gets shots through from the point. While the odd scout has Alzner outside of the top 10, most have him there solidly…”

-- TSN.ca

These are representative views of Alzner, who at the time was thought to be solid, responsible, not flashy, dependable.  If he was a movie character, he’d have been the upstanding guy, the faithful sidekick whose partner is the flashy one who gets all the attention.

Fast forward to 2015, and Alzner is still the solid, responsible, dependable defenseman, but last season he added more of an offensive dimension to his game.  They were not Erik Karlsson or P.K. Subban numbers (or John Carlson, for that matter), but Alzner did set career highs in goals (five), points (21), and shooting percentage (6.9), while tying career highs in assists (16) and plus-minus (plus-14).  He did it by extending his consecutive games played streak to 376.  Alzner is one of just four players in the NHL to have played in every game of the last five seasons with just one team (teammate John Carlson, San Jose’s Patrick Marleau, and Phil Kessel – then of the Toronto Maple Leafs – are the others).

Alzner had his fury unleashed in one respect in 2014-2015.  He set a career high – by a wide margin – in credited hits for a season (120, his second highest being 98 in 2010-2011).   He also set a career high in blocked shots (165).

What was either a surprise or disappointing, depending on your perspective, was that Alzner was second among Caps defensemen in scoring in the 2015 postseason.  His four points in 14 games tied Matt Niskanen behind John Carlson (6).  Nice for Alzner, but one would not expect (or think it a good reflection on the club) to have one of its “stay-at-home” defensemen ranked that highly in scoring.

Fearless’ Take…

Alzner’s offense was not padded against a collection of stiffs.  Of the 19 games in which he recorded points, nine of them were against teams that reached the post season: 1-5-6, plus-5 against the West, 0-3-3, plus-2 against the East.  His points per game have increased steadily over the past five seasons, interrupted only by the drop he experienced in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, from 0.15 in 2010-2011 to 0.26 points per game last year. 

As a “defensive” defenseman, his possession statistics might not tell a detailed tale, but there was a consistency to Alzner’s numbers.  Looking at ten-game segments, Alzner’s Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 was over 50 percent in five segments, under in three (but only once below 48.0 percent), and he was 51.0 percent for the season (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Not extraordinary, but…well, dependable.

Cheerless’ Take…

Let’s not make too much out of that offensive “improvement,” cuz.  He’s 19^th in his draft class in career goals per game (0.03), right between Justin Braun and Keith Aulie, and points per game (0.19), right between Cade Fairchild (ok, only five games played) and Paul Postma.

If he is not an elite offensive defenseman, is he an elite shutdown defenseman?  We could start with the bottom line, how many goals against is he on ice for?  Not that he is to blame for every goal against when he’s out there, but this is about “shutting down” the other side.  Among 99 defensemen appearing in at least 70 games last season, Alzner finished tied for 29^th in fewest goals against/on-ice (55).  Is “top-third” a shutdown defenseman?  Marc Staal was on for more (67).  So was Shea Weber (96) and Ryan Suter (100).  So was Duncan Keith (105).  So there is that. 

Then there is shots against.  Among 170 defensemen with 750 or more 5-on-5 minutes, Alzner ranks 124^th in Corsi against per 60 minutes and 134^th in shots against per 60 minutes (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Not that he is the primary cause of all, or perhaps even most of those shots, but this is about “shutting down,” too. 

The Big Question… Is Karl Alzner at the top of his development curve?

If one subscribes to the notion that an NHL player does not enter his prime until he reaches 27 years of age, then Karl Alzner’s “prime” starts today (he turns 27 on September 24^th).  He has displayed modest improvement in his offensive game over the past several seasons, but it would appear he will never be a consistent contributor at that end.  Twenty points per season might be the benchmark against which his performance can be evaluated (he had 21 last season).  That said, Alzner has been a consistent and dependable defender.  He is not going to do it with thunderous hits (despite his career high in credited hits last season), but with angles and position.  He outperforms his possession numbers in terms of high-quality scoring chances as a share of total scoring chances (85^th among 170 defensemen playing at least 750 5-on-5 minutes; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  His approach is more a cerebral one than a physical one.

But we are still left with the question, is he at the top of his developmental curve?   The nature of his improvements in performance (incremental), the nature of his game suggest what looks like more of s fully formed game (within the bounds of his potential) than one might find in a player on the cusp of his “prime.”  The player seen over the past few years might be the player we see going forward, and this is where we say “consistent and dependable” again.

In the end…

What you see is what you get with Alzner.  There is not a lot of variation from game to game, month to month.  That’s not flashy, but it is valuable.  That he is a second pair defenseman who could play first pair minutes is no slight, even if he was a fifth overall pick and second defenseman taken in the 2007 draft.  If nothing else, Alzner’s dependability and consistency on the back end is one less potential for drama on a team that would like to avoid any of it in what looks to be their best chance in recent years to compete for a Stanley Cup.

But with this consistency and dependability is the flip side of the coin.  He is not, and probably never will be, an impact player as the term is commonly known.  He is part of the chorus, necessary but perhaps not indispensable.  It does not render him unimportant.  That the Caps employ a player with Alzner’s abilities on it second line speaks to the depth the club has developed on the blue line.  He will have to continue being the responsible player that he has been his entire professional career for the Caps to have a legitimate chance at going deep into the postseason.

Projection: 82 games, 4-15-19, plus-13

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2015-2016 Previews -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“The past is a stepping stone, not a millstone.”

-- Robert Plant

For a player who will not turn 22 years of age until the 2015-2016 season is winding down next spring, Tom Wilson has already gained a reputation for being, if not quite an “enforcer” in the old meaning of the word in hockey, then certainly one of the NHL’s most physical players.  In his two seasons in the NHL, Wilson has more penalty minutes (323) than all but two players – Steve Downie (344) and Antoine Roussel (357).  Only three players had more fighting majors than Wilson (26) – Cody McLeod (31), Brandon Prust (27), and Derek Dorsett (27).  If he has a signature moment in his young career, it is probably this one, a hit on the New York Islanders’ Lubomir Visnovsky in the second period of Game 4 of the Caps-Islanders first round playoff series last spring.  The Caps went on to win that game, 2-1 in overtime, Visnovsky was lost to the Islanders for the remainder of the series, and the Caps advanced to the second round in a seven-game win:

As to Wilson’s offensive talents, he is a work in progress.  A 16^th overall draft pick in 2012, Wilson is fifth in his draft class in regular season games played to date (149).  However, he ranks 14^th in goals scored in his draft class (7) and 11^th in points (27).  Wilson did improve his point total in 2014-2015 from the previous season, jumping from ten points to 17. 

On the other hand, Wilson spent the largest portion of his 5-on-5 minutes last season (718) with Nicklas Backstrom (326) and Alex Ovechkin (322).  And it was with that pair, either individually or together with Wilson, that Wilson did most of his offensive damage.  He was 2-9-11 when on ice with either Ovechkin or Backstrom (2-8-10 when both were on the ice with him).

Fearless’ Take…

Wilson had a bit of an odd set of outcomes in 2014-2015.  He was one of just ten players in the NHL who had at least 100 penalty minutes and at least 15 points.  He also accomplished that odd double in the fewest on-ice minutes among those in that group.   All those minutes with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom seemed to do wonders for his possession numbers, too. 

Consider this; in 2013-2014, Wilson spent the largest share of his 5-on-5 minutes (639) with Jay Beagle (274) and Aaron Volpatti (248; numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  His Corsi-for percentage on ice at 5-on-5 was 45.0 (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  Forward to 2014-2015.  There were those minutes spent with Ovechkin and Backstrom referenced above, and his 5-on-5 Corsi-for percentage for the season was 52.6.  Whether it was improvement as a result of having a full season under his belt, better linemates, or a combination of factors, there was that improvement, even if his production numbers (four goals, 17 points) didn’t pop. 

Cheerless’ Take…

Here’s an odd fact.  The Caps were just 1-3-0 in games in which Wilson scored a goal.  However, they were 9-1-2 in games in which he had an assist.  He did not have a goal against a team that reached the playoffs and was 0-6-6 overall against playoff-eligible teams.  The penalties were a problem.  In games in which Wilson took at least five minutes in penalties, the Caps were 7-6-2.  And it was not as if fighting was a consistent momentum changer; the Caps were 6-4-2 in games in which Wilson had a fighting major.

The Big Question… Can Tom Wilson handle a top-six role?

Tom Wilson is not going to be a default option on a scoring line to start the season, if things go as planned.  The first and second right wing spots are penciled in for T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams for the time being.  However, Wilson did skate those large blocks of time with the Backstrom-Ovechkin duo last season, and Wilson was not a possession anchor.  At 5-on-5 Backstrom had a 54.0 Corsi-for percentage with Wilson, 53.9 when apart.  Ovechkin was 53.7 percent with Wilson, 53.6 when apart (numbers from stats-hockeyanalysis.com). 

Looking at the situation in reverse, Backstrom and Ovechkin spent just over 1,000 minutes together at 5-on-5 last season.  However,  Backstrom skated at least 100 5-on-5 minutes with Marcus Johansson (350), Wilson (326), Andre Burakovsky (213), Troy Brouwer (181), and Jay Beagle (107).  Even with Oshie and Williams slotted to be the scoring wings on the right side, Brouwer’s departure, and Burakovsky perhaps getting time at center as the season wears on could mean Wilson will get some opportunities to fill in on the right side on one of the top two lines.

In the end…

It would be easy to look at Tom Wilson’s year last year and think he started strong (nine points in his first 19 games) and finished less so (eight points in his last 48 games).  But keep in mind that every one of those nine points to start the season was recorded with both Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin on the ice.  Four of them were recorded with Backstrom and Ovechkin getting the other points on the scoring plays, four of them with either Backstrom or Ovechkin getting a point on the scoring play.  It was not prolific, but it was promising.

As it is, Wilson will likely start the season on the right side of the third or fourth line.  One would think that in this, his third season – especially if he is being given third line minutes with the occasional move up the ladder – he will be less an agitator and more aggressive on offense.  He could get more opportunities all around.  His average ice time was up three minutes from 2013-2014 (7:56) to last season (10:56), all of it at even strength.  He might not get much time on the power play – even though he is a right-handed shot, so are T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams on the right side – but he might get some additional time on the penalty kill. 

So far, Tom Wilson’s progress has been modest and measured.  From a short stint in the 2013 postseason (a little less than seven minutes a game over three contests), to a little less than eight minutes a game two years ago, to just under 11 minutes in the regular season last year and just under eight minutes a game in the playoffs, Wilson has been spoon-fed additional time.  What he has not yet had in any significant measure is additional responsibility.  He comes into this season having built a reputation for being a player not to be trifled with. With 165 regular season and playoff games on his resume, he will be in a position to take the next step in his development, to expand his repertoire, to use his physical past as a stepping stone, not a millstone.

Projection: 78 games, 8-15-23, plus-2

Photo: Frederick Breedon/Getty Images North America