The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 56: Capitals vs. Bruins, May 11

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are at the end of it, and we are perhaps at the beginning of it.  The regular season ends for the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night when they host the Boston Bruins at Capital One Arena.  This contest also might be viewed as “Game 0” of the first round of the playoffs, inasmuch as the current standings would have the Caps hosting the Bruins in the East Division semi-final round of the postseason.

Boston plays the first of a back-to-back to close their season when they host the New York Islanders in the last game of their home season on Monday night (if Boston wins, they clinch third place in the division and a first round matchup with the Caps).  Going into that game, it is hard to say whether the Bruins are hot, cold, or hot and cold.  They are 11-3-1 over their last 15 games, but how they built that record might be of some concern.  A six-game winning streak was followed by consecutive losses, and then they rattled off a four-game winning streak before alternating losses and a win in their last three contests.

Over span covering those 15 games, only the Minnesota Wild have more standings points (11-1-2/24) than the Bruins (11-3-1/23), and Boston is fifth in points percentage (.767), best in the East Division.  It probably will not surprise anyone that Brad Marchand leads the team in goals (nine) and points (15) over those 15 games.  After all, as of Monday morning, Marchand leads the Bruins for the season in goals (28) and points (67), and he ranks tied for sixth in the league in goals and is third in points.

Marchand, the player who might be the only one hated around the league more than the Caps’ Tom Wilson, has the temerity to be a really good offensive player.  Only COVID, this year and last that resulted in abbreviated schedules, are likely to prevent him from posting six straight 30-goal seasons (he had 28 in 70 games last season).  COVID will prevent him from posting a fifth straight 80-point season (he had four straight coming into this season, including 87 in 70 games last season).  He is one of two players to post at least 200 goals over the last six seasons (202; Alex Ovechkin has 255), he ranks fourth in total points over those six seasons (485), and he is sixth in points per game over that span (1.14).  As if to rub salt in the wounds of opponents who bristle at his antics outside the rules, he has 41 game-winning goals over the last six seasons, second only the Connor McDavid (43), and no player has more overtime goals (12, tied with Jonathan Toews).  If he manages a goal against the Caps, he will become only the second player over the last six seasons to score 100 goals on the road (Ovechkin: 132).  Marchand is 7-6-13, plus-12, in seven games against the Caps this season and 15-18-33, plus-2, in 39 career games against Washington.

One expects Marchand, David Pastrnak, and Patrice Bergeron to be among the top goal scorers and point getters for the Bruins, but Nick Ritchie?  The six-year pro spent four-plus seasons with the Anaheim Ducks after being taken with the tenth overall pick of the 2014 Entry Draft by the Ducks, before he was traded to Boston for Danton Heinen in February 2020.  His high in goal scoring in those four-plus seasons with the Ducks was 14 in his sophomore season of 2016-2017.  Ritchie has already passed that career high in his first full season with Boston, recording 15 goals in 54 games.  The odd part of that, though, is that despite ranking fourth on the team in goal scoring (behind the trio mentioned above) and seventh in points (26), he has the fourth-worst plus-minus rating (minus-7) on the team.  Another odd fact about Ritchie’s season is that he has a career-high five power play goals, shattering his previous high (two, in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020).  In fact, he had a total of six career power play goals in 294 career games before posting five in 54 games this season, good for third on the team behind Bergeron (seven) and Pastrnak (six).  Ritchie has been hot of late, scoring five goals on 22 shots (22.7 percent shooting) in his last ten games.  He is 2-1-3, even, against the Caps this season and 4-1-5, minus-1, in 16 career games against Washington.

Boston has had a hard time icing a consistent squad of defensemen this season.  None have appeared in every game for the Bruins, and only one – Charlie McAvoy – has appeared in as many as 50.  No other Bruin defenseman has appeared in more than 43 games (Connor Clifton).  But injuries have not slowed Matt Grzelcyk from being a producer from the blue line.  Despite missing 18 games to four different injuries, the slightly-built Grzelcyk (5’9”/174) is tied for the team lead in goals among defensemen (five, with McAvoy) and is the only defenseman other than McAvoy to record double-digits in points (20, to McAvoy’s 30).  He, McAvoy, and Steven Kampfer are the only defensemen to post power play goals for the Bruins this season.  For Grzelcyk, it is quite a bump up in productivity.  Over his previous three seasons in Boston he was consistent, averaging between 0.05 and 0.06 goals per game per season and averaging between 0.27 and 0.31 points per game per season.  This year, his production jumped significantly, more than doubling last year’s goals per game (from 0.06 to 0.14) and almost doubling his points per game (from 0.31 to 0.56).  Grzelcyk is finishing strong, going 1-4-5, plus-7, in his last five games.  He is 0-1-, plus-4, in three games against Washington this season and 0-2-2, plus-6, in 11 career games against the Caps.

1.  Boston is 4-3-1 in their last eight road games, outscoring opponents, 22-16. In five of those eight games they allowed one or no goals (two shutouts). 

2.  The Bruins lead the league overall in number of games allowing one or no goals (20), but they have just a 16-4-0 in those games, the four losses in regulation also leading the league.

3.  No team has allowed fewer 5-on-5 goals on the road than Boston (40, tied with Carolina).

4.  Boston has allowed 26 third period goals and three overtime goals in road games this season.  They have allowed a total of only 34 in the first 40 minutes of road games this season.

5.  While the Bruins have enjoyed success in road games decided by two goals (5-2/.714 winning percentage) and in games decided by three or more goals (4-3/.571), they have struggled in road games decided by one goal (6-3-4/.462).

1.  The Caps have only 16 wins on home ice this season, tied for 12^th in the league (with Edmonton).

2.  Winning one-goal games on home ice has not been a problem.  Their 10-0-3 record is third-best in the league by winning percentage (.769).

3.  Only four teams have a worse net penalties per 60 minutes on home ice than the Caps (minus-0.37).  None of them – Philadelphia (minus-0.40), Anaheim (minus-0.42), Detroit (minus-0.42), or Vancouver (minus-0.46) – are in the postseason.

4.  For their growing reputation (true or not) for nastiness, the Caps have only four major penalties on home ice this season.  Only four teams in the league have fewer (the New York Islanders, Winnipeg  Jets, Buffalo Sabres, and Carolina Hurricanes).

5.  The Caps are still waiting for a power play goal from any defenseman other than John Carlson this season (three).  None of the other seven defensemen to dress for the Caps this season have one.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: David Krejci

Sometimes it seems as if David Krejci has been a Bruin since the days of Milt Schmidt and Dit Clapper.  But the fact is that he has been in the league only since 2006-2007, entering the league one season after Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby.  In his 15 years as a Bruin, Krejci has built an impressive resume.  He ranks seventh in games played for the club (961 as of Monday morning), 16^th in goals (215), seventh in assists (512), eighth in points (727), 18^th in plus-minus rating (plus-141), tied for 20^th in power play goals (50), ninth in power play points (190), tenth in game-winning goals (41), and tied for fifth in overtime goals (five).

At the age of 35, Krejci is fighting to maintain some consistency in offensive production.  His 0.16 goals per game this season (eight in 50 games) is his lowest since he posted 0.15 goals per game in 2014-2015.  He is averaging 0.66 assists per game, which is keeping his points per game (0.82) at a respectable level, slightly over his career average (0.76 points per game).  Krejci has been on fire down the stretch, going 6-12-18, plus-14, over his last 15 games through Sunday, his 18 points second on the team over that span, and his plus-14 rating tied for best on the team with Patrice Bergeron and Taylor Hall.  Krejci is 2-3-5, plus-1, in seven games against Washington this season and 12-19-31, minus-9, in 46 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Daniel Sprong

When the Caps obtained Daniel Sprong in a trade with the Anaheim Ducks for defenseman Christian Djoos in February 2020, one might have been forgiven for the front office, let alone fans, not quite knowing what they got in the 22-year old winger.  In four seasons with Pittsburgh and Anaheim he showed a brief glimpse of what was possible, posing 14 goals in 63 games split between the Penguins and Ducks in 2018-2019.  But otherwise he seemed a bit of a disappointment, posting a 5-2-7, minus-3 scoring line in his other three seasons preceding his trade to Washington.  He played only five games with the Hershey Bears in the AHL, going 1-5-6, minus-1, not much evidence to project his future with the Caps. 

Even early on in this season, it was difficult to see if Sprong could fill some or all of his potential as an offensive contributor.  In his first 13 games he was 3-1-4, even.  He averaged just 9:21 in ice time, stapled to the fourth line for the most part, topping ten minutes of ice time only six times in those 13 games.  Not bad, but not much to predict in terms of his future.  But then, his season took a turn.  He put together a four-game points streak in early March (3-1-4, plus-5), and his ice time got a jolt, up to 13:25 per game over that short stretch.  Since then, he has been something of a good luck charm, going 7-5-12, plus-3, with three game-winning goals in 24 games while averaging 12:38 in ice time per game.  Odd Sprong fact… if he goes 1-1-2, plus-2, and the goal is a game winner at even strength, not an altogether rare occurrence in the NHL, he would finish the season 7-4-11, plus-5, with seven even strength goals and two game winners both at home and on the road.  He is 1-1-2, plus-2, in four games against the Bruins this season (something to keep in mind) and 1-1-2, minus-2, in nine career games against Boston.

In the end…

The last game of the season for the Caps is something to be endured with the hope that no one else succumbs to injury and those who are sitting out can use the time off to get better sooner before the postseason starts.  The game isn’t “meaningless,” a term that might mean more to fans than to players or coaches.  After all, this could be a preview of the Caps opening playoff round.  If anything, this game brings to mind the old Vince Lombardi quote about winning and commitment…

“Winning is not a sometime thing, it is an all the time thing. You don’t do things right once in a while…you do them right all the time.”

In this case, “winning is an all the time thing” might not apply to this game, but for the players who do dress, doing things right all the time is what matters.  And if they do that, winning just might take care of itself.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 54/55: Capitals vs. Flyers, May 7/8

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open their last home stand of the regular season by hosting the Philadelphia Flyers for a two-game set on Friday and Saturday.  The Caps are coming off one of their most emotional games since winning the Stanley Cup in 2018, a 4-2 win over the New York Rangers than ran the gamut of feelings – dealing with a team seeking a measure of revenge over a team with a player – Tom Wilson – that they felt took liberties with their star player to comforting and ultimately celebrating a teammate – T.J. Oshie, whose father passed away on Tuesday and who scored a hat trick in his return to the ice against the Rangers on Thursday.

On the other side, the Flyers are left to contemplate a lost season, one which started with hopes of the playoffs, but that is ending as an also ran, a tea with a 12-19-4 record since March 1^st.  The Flyer fade coincides with a similar fade in the production of forward Joel Farabee.  After going 8-13-21, plus-6 in 52 games as a rookie last season, Farabee started the season as a pleasant surprise, going 8-9-17, plus-7 in his first 18 games through the end of February.  Since March 1^st, his scoring production is almost identical – 9-9-18 – but it covers almost twice as many games (34), and his minus-10 rating is one of nine that is minus-10 or worse for the Flyers since March 1^st.  The overall comparison for Farabee from last season to this is easy, since he comes into this series having played in 52 games this season to date the same number he played last season.  His goals are up (from eight to 17), assists are up (from 13 to 18), points are up (from 21 to 35), and shooting percentage is up (from 9.9 percent to 14.8 percent, best on the team among players appearing in ten or more games).  But with the way his season is ending, like that of the Flyers, it has to be looked at with a bit of disappointment.  Farabee is 1-4-5, plus-4, in six games against the Caps this season, 1-4-5, plus-4 in eight games against Washington for his career.

Thirty points, minus-16.  Most points since March 1^st, second-worst plus-minus rating among forwards.  That is Jakub Voracek’s history in 35 games since the beginning of March.  In that time, he was on the ice for 41 goals at even strength (second most among forwards), and his minus-11 goal differential at evens is tied for second-worst among Flyer forwards. What is more, his scoring has not really mattered all that much.  In 35 games since March 1^st, Voracek has points in 20 games, and the Flyers are just 9-8-3 in those contests.  Then there is the matter of his overall scoring.  Since posting a career best 85 points in 2017-2018, his points have plateaued at a lower level.  In that 2017-2018 season he averaged 1.04 points per game, but in three seasons since that average dropped to 0.85, 0.81, and 0.86 points per game this season.  Voracek is 0-3-3, minus-8, in six games against the Caps this season (lowest point total against any opponent) and 15-22-37, plus-2, in 45 career games against Washington.

The Flyers have dressed 32 skaters this season, and ten of them are rookies.  None have played more than Samuel Morin, who has 18 games to his credit. That Morin is still considered a rookie has to be considered an achievement.  He played in nine games across four seasons for the Flyers before this season after being taken with the 11^th overall pick in the 2013 Entry Draft.  His 27 games played to date in the NHL is the fewest among the top 20 picks in that draft (note: he was taken nine spots ahead of the Caps’ Anthony Mantha and 12 picks ahead of former Capital Andre Burakovsky).  Morin’s stock in trade is not scoring.  He has one point (a goal, which also happens to be a game-winner) in 27 career games in the NHL.  It is his physical play.  He ranks 11^th in the league among all forwards playing in at least 15 games in hits per 60 minutes (10.26), and he ranks fourth in that group in penalty minutes (35 in 18 games).  He has been out of the lineup for the past three games.  Morin is 0-0-0, minus-2, in two games against the Caps this season, his career record against the Caps as well.

1.  The Flyers have the only two forwards in the league on ice for more than 40 goals at even strength since March 1^st.  In addition to Voracek’s 41, there is Claude Giroux with 43.

2.  Since March 1^st, the Flyers have the worst scoring defense on the road in the NHL (4.06 goals allowed per game).

3.  That poor scoring defense is largely a product of the Flyers having the worst road power play since March 1^st (68.8 percent).  They allowed at least one power play goal in ten of 18 road games, and four times they allowed at least two power play goals.

4.  Over those same 18 road games, the Flyers have allowed three shorthanded goals, tied with four other teams (including the Caps) for most in the league over that span.

5.  The Flyers are 7-9-2 on the road since March 1^st.  All seven wins were by one goal (7-1-2).  They are 0-8 in multi-goal decisions.

1.  The Caps have the third-best winning percentage in one-goal games at home this season (9-0-3).  The Caps are tied for the most one goal wins on home ice this season (with Vegas and Pittsburgh).  Only the Caps and Tampa Bay have not lost a one-goal decision in regulation at home this season.

2.  Washington leads the league home power play efficiency (33.3 percent).  If they finish over 30 percent, they will become only the fourth team since 2005-2006 to do so (Boston (31.8 percent in 2018-2019), Edmonton (31.7 percent in 2019-2020), and Winnipeg (31.4 percent in 2018-2019)).

3.  On the other side, if the Caps allow one more shorthanded goal on home ice this season, they will tie for third-most shorthanded goals allowed at home since 2005-2006 (five) and will do it in 13 fewer home games.

4.  The Caps have drawn only 77 penalties on home ice this season, fifth-fewest in the league.

5.  If the Caps manage four power play goals in the two games against the Flyers, they would have 200 against Philadelphia in their all-time regular season series.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Alex Lyon

Goaltender Carter Hart is out for the rest of the season with a sprained knee.  With the Caps and Flyers playing back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday, it is highly likely the Caps will see Alex Lyon in goal for one of them.  A highly decorated goalie in the college ranks at Yale University (two-time Ken Dryden award as best goalie in the ECAC, first-team All-American, first-team All-ECAC, Ivy League rookie of the year, MVP for Yale), Lyon signed with the Flyers on an entry level contract in 2016.  Since then, he has bounced between the Flyers (21 games over four seasons) and the AHL (149 games with the Lehigh Valley Pantoms).  He has never appeared in more than 11 games in a season, that total coming in his first year in the NHL in 2017-2018. His career numbers since his entry into the NHL (6-7-1, 3.30, .888) do not suggest his future is as a permanent fixture in an NHL goaltending tandem, and at age 28, the clock is starting to tick louder on his career prospects.  He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, as will Brian Elliott.  With the possibility that those two depart, and with Hart’s future somewhat uncertain, given his injury and poor results this season (9-11-5, 3.67, .877, one shutout), the Flyers seem once more to have problems at the sport’s most important position.  Lyon is 0-1-0, 5.19, .875 in his only appearance against the Caps this season and 0-1-0, 4.56, .889 in two career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Nic Dowd

Fifty three games into the season, and Nic Dowd has a career high in goals scored (11).  It might surprise some, but as fourth line forwards go, Dowd has become a rather reliable goal scorer.  In 91 games with the Los Angeles Kings to start his career, he managed only six goals, a 5.4 goals per 82 game scoring rate.  In 40 games with Vancouver, he had three goals (6.2 per 82 games).  He scored a total of nine goals over his first three seasons in the league with a high of six in 2016-2017 with the Kings.  But in three seasons with the Caps, Dowd has 26 goals in 173 games (12.3 goals per 82 games)  and has not posted fewer than seven in any season.  Moreover, his shooting percentage has been noteworthy – 16.0 percent over his three years in Washington compared to 6.8 percent over his first three seasons.

Fans might remember that Dowd’s predecessor at center on the fourth line – Jay Beagle – was something of a good luck charm when scoring goals, the Caps going 41-1-5 in the 47 games with the Caps in which he scored at least one goal.  Dowd has done his best to assume that role this season, the Caps going 7-1-1 in the games in which he scored at least one goal, and three of his 11 goals have been game-winners, although he is looking for his first game-winner on home ice as he goes into this two-game set.  He goes into these games having scored goals in each of his last two games, including the game-winner in the Caps’ 4-2 win over the Rangers on Wednesday night.  Dowd is 3-0-3, plus-4, in six games against the Flyers this season and 3-3-6, plus-6, in 14 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

The Caps control their own destiny with respect to the East Division.  Win out, and they with the division, regardless of what the Pittsburgh Penguins do.  They will be facing a Flyers team that just has not been able to solve their problems in the defensive end of the ice, which would seem tailor-made for the second-best offense in the league (3.43 goals per game).  There is enough on the plate to motivate the Caps to finish the season strong, starting with this two-game set against the Flyers.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 52/53: Capitals at Rangers, May 3/5

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals get started on their last full week of the regular season with a two-game set against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.  This two game-set will also close the books on the road portion of the Caps’ season.  The games will also wrap up the Ranger’s home slate of games for this season, where they go into the week with a 14-9-3 record, ranked 14^th in points earned (31) and 15^th in points percentage (.596) on home ice.

The success the Rangers have enjoyed at MSG this season is largely a product of a prolific offense that averages 3.50 goals per game (tied for fourth in the league).  That offense has been led by Artemi Panarin, who is 12-25-37, plus-12, on home ice, fourth in the league in points recorded on home ice so far this season.  Panarin has been little short of spectacular for the Rangers since his arrival last season.  His 151 points in 110 games overall rank fourth among all skaters over the past two seasons, and his 1.37 points per game ranks third.  And if playing in New York is a pressure cooker for pro athletes, Panarin has held up well.  His 87 points at the Garden over the last two seasons ranks third among all players in total scoring on home ice, and his 1.55 points per game ranks third as well.  Panarin has scored in bunches this season, posting 18 multi-point games, tied for fourth in the league.  He has 12 multi-point games on home ice, tied for second in the league and trailing only Connor McDavid (17). 

Panarin’s scoring matters, too.  He has been held without a point only 13 times in 41 games this season, and the Rangers are 2-9-2 in those games.  On the other side, the Rangers are 20-4-4 in the 28 games in which he recorded at least one point, and they have lost only one game in regulation in which he had a multi-point game (January 19^th in a 4-3 loss to New Jersey). In 11 games from March 15^th through April 25^th, Panarin went 8-18-26, plus-15, but he is without a point in his last two contests, his first games going consecutive games without a point since February 8th/10th.  Panarin is 2-7-9, plus-4, in six games against the Caps this season and 10-14-24, plus-9, in 21 games in his career against Washington.

Mika Zibanejad has had a strange year playing in Madison Square Garden.  In his first 14 games on home ice this season, he went 1-3-4, minus-6.  And then a light went on. A red light.  Three times.  On St. Patrick’s Day, Zibanejad went 3-3-6, plus-5, in a 9-0 plastering of the Philadelphia Flyers.  In the dozen home games he played that started with that outburst, Zibanejad is 8-12-20, plus-8, with two hat tricks.  It might not be a coincidence that in those first 14 games at home, the Rangers went 5-6-3 but are 9-3-0 in the dozen game since then on home ice.  It might be a coincidence, either, that the Rangers were just 11-12-4 in their first 27 games overall in which Zibanejad played, but are 15-8-2 in 25 games since.  It has been the difference between falling behind in the standings early and rushing frantically to catch up late, only to fail in that quest.  Zibanejad is 2-24, plus-2, in six games against Washington this season and 12-11-23, minus-4 over his career against the Caps.

With Jack Johnson out for the rest of the year with hernia surgery, defenseman Brendan Smith is now the old man in blue, the only active Ranger born in the 1980’s (February 2, 1989, for those keeping score).  Now in his tenth NHL season (five-plus seasons in New York after starting his career with the Detroit Red Wings), Smith has posted his second double-digit point total as a Ranger (5-5-10) and his best plus-minus rating in any of his five-plus seasons in New York and best of his career (plus-8).  His five goals have tied a career-best, set with Detroit in 71 games in 2013-2014, and his shooting percentage (8.8) is the best of his career. He is doing it while averaging just 16:27 in ice time per game, fifth among the six Ranger defensemen to dress for at least 20 games.

Although the Rangers have not had a lot of offensive input from defensemen at home outside of the Adam Fox-Ryan Lindgren duo, Smith does rank fourth in points among defensemen on home ice (six) and he is one of three defensemen with two or more goals at MSG this season (Fox and Jacob Trouba being the others).  Smith is 0-1-1, minus-2, in five games against the Caps this season and 0-5-5, minus-2, in 24 career games against the Capitals.

1.  The two New York area teams (Rangers and Islanders) have used a combined four goalies against the Caps this season.  All four are Russian – Semyon Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin for the Islanders, and Ilya Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev for the Rangers.

2. The Rangers have dressed 11 defensemen this season.  All of them have points, but four of them have only one (Jack Johnson, Tony DeAngelo, Tarmo Reunanen, and Zac Jones).

3.  New York is one of four teams yet to score an overtime goal on home ice this season (Arizona, Buffalo, and Calgary are the others).  Only four teams have allowed more goals than the Rangers on home ice (three).  Dallas, Columbus, Buffalo, and Detroit have allowed four apiece.

4.  The Rangers are 11-1-1 on home ice when scoring first, tied with Boston for the sixth-best winning percentage in the league (.846).

5.  New York has the worst winning percentage in the league in one-goal games on home ice this season (1-3-3/.143)

1.  The Caps lead the league in first period goals scored on the road (31).

2.  Washington has more goals scored at 5-on-5 in road games (71 in 26 games) than any team in the league, ten more than Vegas (61).

3.  Only four teams have fewer blocked shots in road games than the Caps (286) – Philadelphia (280), Vancouver (276), Colorado (275), and Dallas (273).  The Caps have the third fewest blocked shots per 60 minutes (10.85), ahead of only Florida (10.83) and Philadelphia (10.58).

4.  Washington has 6.03 takeaways per 60 minutes in road games, fourth best in the league, behind Pittsburgh (6.22), Anaheim (6.49), and Vancouver (6.69).

5.  The Caps’ 8-1-2 record on the road in one-goal games is second-best in the league by win percentage (.727/8-1-2).  Only Vegas is better (.750/6-2-0)

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Filip Chytil

The scouting report on Filip Chytil says that he is “an excellent skater with playmaking skills and a very good wrist shot. Is also tenacious on the forecheck and versatile enough to play both center and wing. Is also an asset defensively when he does not have the puck.  On the other hand, it also says that he “needs to bulk up significantly and get a lot stronger in order to maximize output in the North American professional ranks. Also needs more strength to win board battles and forecheck consistently in the NHL.”  His potential is “fast, talented and versatile forward with upside.”

In a game that has put a premium on speed, that asset should benefit Chytil and the Rangers, but speed on the forecheck without being effective at it can work against him.  And so here he is, in his fourth season with the Rangers, putting up career or near career offensive numbers (8-12-20, plus-8, in 38 games). And, there is a balance in his game.  He has been on ice for only 17 even strength goals in 38 games this season, and his plus-8 even strength goal differential on ice is tied for second-best on the club, trailing only Artemi Panarin (plus-15).

Since March 30^th, Chytil has been a bit on offense, posting two three-game points streaks, but he posted only his first three-game streak without a point over that span in his last three contests.  He is 3-8-11, plus-6 overall over those 18 games.  Chytil is 1-0-1, minus-1, in four games against the Caps this season and 1-3-4, minus-3, in his career against Washington.

Washington: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin spent most of his career – 266 of 655 regular season games and 73 of 136 playoff games – as a New York Ranger.  Some of his best games came in the blue jersey.  There was his two assist game in a 4-1 win over the Caps in 2013…the three-point game he had in Game 4 of the 2013 playoff series in a 4-3 win over the Caps… the 29:50 he played in a three-overtime, 2-1 win over the Caps in the 2012 playoffs. 

But now, he is a Capital.  And being on the other side of the ice, facing the Rangers, has not been kind to the Rangers over Hagelin’s career.  With Anaheim, Los Angeles, Pittsburgh, and the Caps, Hagelin is 6-7-13, plus-10, in 23 games against New York.  Only once has he endured as much as a three-game streak without a point against the Rangers.  That, of course, would be as a Capital.  Still, he is 3-2-5, plus-5, in 10 games against the Rangers as a Capital, and that is good production for a player getting bottom-six minutes.  What stand out in those number is the three goals on 16 shots, an 18.8 shooting percentage, considerable better than his 7.9 percent career shooting percentage overall.

Summoning his history against the Rangers could not come at a better time.  Hagelin is without a point in his last eight games coming into this two-game set, and he has only two goals in his last 24 games on 33 shots (6.1 percent).  Hagelin is 1-1-2, plus-2, in six games against New York this season and 6-7-13, plus-10, I 23 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

With only five games left in the regular season, we are going to see if the Caps will “run through the tape” or coast to the finish.  Since their 14-game points streak back in mid-February to mid-March, they are 12-8-1.  Good, not great, but they are 7-4-0 on the road in that span, which is a decent result.  The Rangers provide an interesting test for the Caps.  They have been an annoying presence, going 4-2-0 in the six games against the Caps, and even the two Caps wins each were by a single goal (all of the Ranger wins were by multi-goal margins).  How the Caps do in this test might be an early indicator of their frame of mind heading into the playoffs.

Capitals 4 – Rangers 3

Capitals 5 – Rangers 2

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 50/51: Capitals vs. Penguins, April 29/May 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals continue wrapping up their regular season series in advance of the postseason, the Pittsburgh Penguins being next on the list with two games at Capital One Arena to close out the season series.  The teams have not met in more than two months, but  time does not diminish the flame of this rivalry, made more intense in this instance as the two teams battle down the stretch for the top spot and top seed in the East Division.

The Caps and Pens last met on February 25^th, a 5-2 Capitals win that featured six third period goals, two of them empty netters by the Caps that provided the final margin.  Since that loss, the Penguins have the third-best record in the league (22-8-2) and the sixth-best points percentage (.719).

Pittsburgh has done it largely without the services of Evgeni Malkin, who has been out of the lineup on long-term injured reserve since suffering a lower body injury on March 16^th.  Only recently did he return to practice in a non-contact jersey.  In Malkin’s absence, Sidney Crosby stepped up.  In 21 games since Malkin left the lineup, Crosby is third on the team in goals scored (nine), tied for first in assists (18, with Kris Letang), first in points (27), tied for second in game-winning goals (two, with Jake Guentzel), leads the team in first goals scored in games (three), leads the team in takeaways (23), has taken more faceoffs (517) than the next four Penguins over that span (467) to a 54.2 winning percentage, and leads all Penguins forwards in ice time per game (20:36).  He is tied for seventh in the league in scoring (27 points, with Colorado’s Gabriel Landeskog, 11^th in points per game (1.29), and tied for fifth in power play points (10).  Crosby is the active leader in career points against the Caps, going 28-52-80, minus-2, in 58 career games against Washington.

Kris Letang occupies the top spot in almost every meaningful statistical category among defensemen in Penguins history – first in games played (857), first in goals (134), first in assists (443), first in points (577), first in power play goals (44), first in overtime goals (six), first in game-winning goals (26), first in shots on goal (2,225), first in minutes played (20,571 since 1997-1998, when the league began capturing that statistic), first in blocked shots (1,278, since 2005-2006), first in takeaways (440, since 2005-2006), first in first goals scored in games (25).  Letang is another player who stepped up in the absence of Malkin, going 2-18-20, plus-6, leading all Penguin defensemen in points and fourth in points among all NHL defensemen over that span.  Against the Caps, though, Letang has struggled over the years.  He is tied for second among Pittsburgh defensemen all-time in goals scored against Washington (seven) and is third in career points against Washington (26) in 46 career games (first all-time among Penguin defensemen against the Capitals), but he is the worst of 159 defensemen to dress for the Penguins against the Caps in plus-minus (minus-27).

The Penguins are gambling on a question with regard to its goaltending.  Is “good enough” actually good enough?  Tristan Jarry appears to have claimed the number one goaltending spot for the Penguins, but his overall numbers to not impress.  Jarry is tied for third in wins among goalies (21, with Marc-Andre Fleury and Connor Hellybuyck), but among 47 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played, he ranks 26^th in goals against average (2.71) and 22^nd in save percentage (.911).  Among 43 goalies appearing in at least 20 games, he ranks 17^th in even strength save percentage (.921) and 33^rd in save percentage against power plays (.838).  It has not been better recently.  Since April 1^st, Jarry ranks 23^rd of 46 goalies logging at least 250 minutes in goals against average (2.51) and 22^nd in save percentage (.914).  Among 48 goalies dressing for at least five games since April 1^st, he ranks 16^th in even strength save percentage (.929).  On the other hand, Jarry is 6-1-1 in nine appearances in April, but the question is whether he can step up when the games get tighter in the postseason.  Jarry is 2-2-0, 2.77, .914 in four career appearances against the Caps, all of those appearances coming this season.

1.  If Alex Ovechkin does not play, Sidney Crosby could take over the number two spot among active players in career points in the NHL.  Crosby has 1,319 points to Ovechkin’s 1,320.  Joe Thornton leads active players in career points with 1,523.

2.  The Penguins have dressed 12 defensemen this season, but they have played 21 consecutive games with the same six defensemen in the lineup – Kris Letang, Mike Matheson, Cody Ceci, Brian Dumoulin, John Marino, and Marcus Pettersson.

3.  No team has more wins on home ice this season than the Penguins (20), and their points percentage (.808) on home ice ranks third in the league.  Their road record is less impressive.  Their 12-11-1 record on the road is tied for 12^th in wins, 17^th in standings points earned (25), and their points percentage (.521) ranks 16^th.  They are, however, 4-1-0 in their last five road contests.

4.  The Penguins rank 25^th in the league in scoring defense on the road (3.33 goals against per game) and have allowed 29 goals in their last seven road contests (4.14 per game).  Only one of those games was against a playoff-eligible team (a 7-5 loss to Boston on April 3^rd).

5.  Only New Jersey has a worse penalty kill on the road this season (66.7 percent) than Pittsburgh (67.7 percent).  It has been even worse of late – 61.1 percent over their last seven games (11-for-18).

1.  Washington leads the league in power play efficiency on home ice (33.9 percent).

2.  No team has allowed more shorthanded goals this season than the Caps (eight). Half of them (four) have been allowed in April.

3.  The Caps lead the league in one-goal wins (17), fewest one-goal losses in regulation (one), and winning percentage in one-goal games (.773/17-1-4).

4.  Washington leads the league in goals scored at 5-on-5 (120).

5.  If the Caps win on Thursday night, they will even the all-time series with the Penguins at 103 wins and 103 regulation losses.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Jeff Carter

At the age of 36, Jeff Carter is coming to the end of the road.  This might not be his last season, but he can see it from here.  And one of the most prolific scorers of his generation is limping a bit to the end.  Since coming into the NHL with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2005-2006, Carter ranks eighth among all players in goals scored (393). Consistency has been a hallmark of his game.  That career goal total was complied despite only topping 40 goals in a season once (46 goals with the Flyers in 2008-2009) and topping 30 goals only four times in 16 seasons.  But since he posted 32 goals in 2016-2017 with the Los Angeles Kings, he has played in only 211 of 294 possible games and scored 54 goals over that span (a 21-goalpace over 82 games).  He lost games to an assortment of injuries – ankle, upper-body, lower-body, core muscle.

When the Penguins acquired Carter for a pair of mid-round draft picks at the trading deadline, he was not expected to be more than a support scorer. However, with the absence of Evgeni Malkin for the foreseeable future, there is a bit more pressure on him to produce in the offensive end.  Reviews are mixed in that regard.  Since joining the Pens lineup on April 15^th, Carter is 3-1-4, plus-3, in eight games, tied for third in goals and tied for eight in points for the Penguins. All three of his goals have come in the last five games, Carter alternating games with and without goals over that short span.  Carter is 15-15-30, plus-3, in 34 career games against Washington.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Twenty seven players in Capitals history have combined to score 32 overtime goals in the postseason.  Series clinching overtime goals are more rare – Dale Hunter against the Philadelphia Flyers in Game 7 in 1988, John Druce in Game 5 against the New York Rangers in 1990, Brian Bellows in Game 6 against the Boston Bruins in 1998, Joe Juneau in Game 6 against the Buffalo Sabres in 1998, Joel Ward in Game 7 against the Boston Bruins in 2012, Marcus Johansson in Game 6 against the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2017.  And then there was Evgeny Kuznetsov, scoring perhaps the most satisfying series clinching goal in Capitals history:

 

It was part of a postseason that ranks as the best of any skater in Caps history.  Unfortunately, Kuznetsov’s game has lacked a certain consistency since.  In 178 regular season games since that magical postseason, he is 49-103-152, plus-13, in 178 regular season games.  Good, certainly (a 23-47-70, plus-6 scoring line per 82 games), but something has just seemed “off” about his game.  His points per game dropped in each of the three regular seasons since that 2018 postseason (from 1.05 PPG to 0.95, to 0.83, to 0.72 this season), and he is 4-7-11, minus-5, in 15 postseason games over the last three seasons.

But after stumbling a bit coming out of the gate for the 2020-2021 season (2-4-6, minus-2, in his first 14 games), Kuznetsov has seen his production improve over his last 25 games.  In that span he is 7-15-22, plus-10, tied for third in goals on the team, third in assists, tied for second on the team in points, tied for third in plus-minus, and first in game-winning goals (four). And, he is 2-5-7, plus-2, in his last five games, including Tuesday’s game against the New York Islanders, when he was held to 14:21 of ice time due to an injury that limited him to seven minutes of ice time over the last 40 minutes of the 1-0 win.

If there is one thing the Caps would like to see improve in Kuznetsov’s performance, it might be his production on home ice.  He is 3-8-11 in scoring on home ice this season, tied for ninth in goals and seventh in points.  He does not have a point in his last four games at Capital One Arena after going 3-6-9 in his previous seven games on home ice.  Kuznetsov is 2-3-5, minus-1, in six games against the Penguins this season and 6-13-19, minus-1, in 32 career games against Pittsburgh.

In the end…

The Caps have an opportunity here.  Two games at home against a good team that struggles some on the road, with a one-point lead in the standings and a game in hand.  A sweep, and the Caps will hold a five-point lead on the division with five games to play.  But hockey, like all team sports, is played one game at a time.  Win one, then think about winning another.

Capitals 5 – Penguins 4

Capitals 5 – Penguins 3