Showing posts with label 2021-2022 rookies. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2021-2022 rookies. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 06, 2022

The 2021-2022 Washington Capitals Rookie Class -- Then and When: Part 7 -- "In the End...and the Beginning"

In the first six parts of this look back and look ahead for the Washington Capitals rookie class of 2021-2022, we covered each of the 11 rookie skaters who appeared for the Caps.  In this last part, we think about this class as a class going forward.  While they were impactful in terms of games played and, in some cases, production, will their sophomore seasons reflect improvement, or will they have less exposure in the NHL?

Let us start with man-games played.  Last year’s rookie class combined for 273 man-games played.  This could be considered less a matter of value than one born of necessity.  No Capital appeared in as many as 80 games last season, and in fact a rookie – Martin Fehervary – tied for most games played for the Caps (79, with Evgeny Kuznetsov).  Nine veterans who could be considered “regulars” missed at least ten games for various reasons, mostly injuries –Trevor van Riemsdyk (ten), Lars Eller (10), Conor Sheary (11), Nic Dowd (18), Carl Hagelin (29), Nicklas Backstrom (35), T.J. Oshie (38), Anthony Mantha (45), and Michal Kempny (67). 

That is 263 man games that had to be made up from somewhere.  Fehervary had earned a spot as a regular, as did Connor McMichael (to a point; see Part 6 for a discussion of his season and outlook). Nevertheless, rookies were called up in significant numbers and to play a significant role to an unexpected extent for a team with a “win now” point of view.

Then there is the matter of head coach Peter Laviolette and his propensity, or lack of it, to employ rookies.  He does not appear to be especially enamored of giving rookies a lot of ice time.  But his career is characterized more by unevenness than an aversion to employing rookies.  The 11 rookies he employed with the Caps in 2021-2022 were the second-most he ever used in a season over a 20-season head coaching career.  He used 12 rookies with Philadelphia in 2011-2012, and there are two similarities between that season with the Flyers and the season just completed with the Caps. 

First, both teams were hit hard by injuries, necessitating a more relaxed posture regarding the use of rookies.  Ten of the 12 rookies used by the Flyers that season played in at least ten games, five of them appeared in more than half of the Flyers’ games.  Why?  Daniel Briere missed ten games.  Andrej Meszaros missed 19 games.  James van Riemsdyk missed 39 games.  Chris Pronger, in what would be his last NHL season, appeared in just 13 games.  Vets missed a lot of games for the Flyers that season.

Second, and this is reflects Laviolette’s skill in managing a team in adversity, both the Flyers of 2011-2012 and Capitals of 2021-2022 had quite successful regular seasons, all things considered.  The Flyers went 47-26-9 (103 points/third in the Atlantic Division) under Laviolette, while the Caps were 44-26-12 (100 points/fourth in the Metropolitan Division) last season.

What this leads up to is whether the conditions will repeat themselves so that last year’s rookie class gets another bite at the apple of regular NHL play.  From a Caps fan’s perspective, the reflexive answer is “let’s hope not.”  But injuries happen, and this club cannot be thought of as immune to that problem given its aging veteran component.  It already has to contend with Nicklas Backstrom, Tom Wilson, and perhaps Carl Hagelin missing huge chunks of the upcoming season as they make their ways back from injuries and/or subsequent surgeries.  Caps management has tried to mitigate the effects of this potential situation with the acquisitions it made after last season.  This would normally have the effect of closing off pathways to openings for rookies who might otherwise be expected to take the next step on their developmental path.

There was also an odd character, albeit pleasant, about this rookie class.  Of the 11 members of the cast, ten were draft picks (Joe Snively was signed as a free agent).  The odd part is the mix by selection – four first round picks (Hendrix Lapierre/2020, Connor McMichael/2019, Alex Alexeyev/2018, Lucas Johansen/2016), two second round picks (Brett Leason/2019, Martin Fehervary/2018), two third round picks (Aliaksei Protas/2019, Garrett Pilon/2016), and two fifth round picks (Beck Malenstyn/2016, Axel Jonsson-Fjallby/2016).  Malenstyn and Jonsson-Fjallby are the first pair of players taken in the fifth round of the same draft (2016) in team history to dress for the Caps.  Only one other pair of players taken in a later round of the same draft suited up for the Caps.  Brad Schlegel and Keith Jones, both taken in the seventh round of the 1988 draft, dressed for the Caps.

It was a special concurrence of events taking place in 2021-2022 that resulted in the Caps employing 11 rookie skaters among 35 to skate for the team for a total of 273 man-games.  Frankly, it was not part of the plan, but rather an occurrence born of necessity.  It might be argued that this rookie class played a significant role in keeping the Caps competitive early in the season.  Over the first 22 games, a period over which the Caps went 14-3-5, eight rookies dressed, contributing nine goals and 22 points in 86 man-games.  Six of the eight had goals; seven of them had points.  Only Connor McMichael had a minus rating in this group (minus-2), but on the other hand he did lead the group over that period with seven points.

One would not expect that 2021-2022 experience will be repeated.  In fact, it would seem more likely that under the best of conditions, few of that 2021-2022 rookie group would dress for the Caps, or if any do, it would be for a mere handful of games.  Fehervary was and will be a regular in the lineup.  After that, the jury might out on Connor McMichael and Axel Jonsson-Fjallby.  As for the other eight skaters, one could never discount entirely a player playing himself onto the roster in training camp, but even with the injuries that the Caps will be dealing with to start the season, there just seems to be no room for those members of the class to break through and even less likely that members of the 2022-2023 rookie class will make an impression.  It makes the 2021-2022 rookie class for the Washington Capitals a truly special one, unique among the rookie classes in team history.

Monday, September 05, 2022

The 2021-2022 Washington Capitals Rookie Class -- Then and When: Part 6 -- "The Enigma"

In Part 6 of our look at the 2021-2022 rookie class for the Washington Capitals, both in their performance and their short term outlook, we look at a player who deserves his own treatment.  Connor McMichael had what one might think to be a frustrating season, but one hopes when all is said and done, that years from now it will be looked at as a necessary learning experience for the promising forward.

Connor McMichael, forward

Drafted: Washington, 2019 Entry Draft, first round, 25th overall; amateur team when drafted: London Knights (Ontario Hockey League)

In Connor McMichael’s first season in Canadian junior hockey, split between the Hamilton Bulldogs and the London Knights in the Ontario Hockey League, he posted a modest eight goals and eight assists with a minus-7 rating in 60 games.  His second season, leading up to the 2019 Entry Draft, was quite different.  With London, he went 36-36-72, plus-15, in 68 games, tied for 20th in the league in goals scored and tied for 39th in points.  It earned him this comment from EliteProspects.com: “A smart center with impressive hockey sense. Reads the game very well and plays well in his own end too. Puckhandling is good and he has a decent nose for the net. Some consistency issues.”  Put a pin in that last sentence.

McMichael would be taken 25th overall by the Capitals, the ninth center taken in the first round (of 11 total).  He looked like a steal when he lit up the OHL for London the following year, going 47-55-102, plus-32, in 52 games with the Knights, finishing third in the OHL in goals scored, 11th in assists, and third in points.  His 16 power play goals were third in the OHL.

The following season, McMichael made the big club out of training camp, but he did not take the ice in the 2020-2021 season until Game 6, a 4-3 Gimmick loss to the Buffalo Sabres in which he did not record a point in just less than ten minutes of ice time.  It would be his only game with the Caps; he finished the season in Hershey, dressing for 33 games and going 14-13-27, plus-6.  Those 14 goals tied for second among all AHL rookies, while his 27 points were sixth most in the 2020-2021 AHL rookie class.

And then came the 2021-2022 season.  It was not the smooth transition to a steady role and productive result one might have hoped for, if not expected, based on McMichael’s development to that point.  Over his first 24 games he skated fewer than ten minutes only twice and averaged almost 12 minutes per game, not bad for a rookie, even a first round draft pick, on a veteran team. But there was a number with ominous overtones – “14.”  Over those first 24 games McMichael was on ice for 14 even strength goals against, fourth most among forwards, and especially concerning given that he was on ice for only 11:34 of even strength ice time per game, tenth among Caps forwards over that period. 

It did not appear that this escaped notice of the coaching staff.  Over his next 27 games, McMichael averaged only 9:00 in ice time per game, going 4-3-7, even.  Oddly enough, his on ice even strength goals against total dropped to eight, tied for 11th most among 19 forwards dressing over that period.  Perhaps, however, it was a function of his ice time being parceled out with an eye dropper.  His even strength ice time over those 27 games – 8:57 per game – was least among any of the 16 Caps forwards dressing for more than five games.  At no time over those 27 games did McMichael skate for ten or more minutes in three consecutive games.

His ice time improved over his last 17 games, averaging 10:59 per game, but his offense had all but dried up at that point.  He was 2-1-13, minus-1, over that last stretch.  Then again, he appeared in just those 17 games in 26 Caps games to end the regular season.  He was on ice for only eight even strength goals against, tied for second fewest among the 14 Caps forwards appearing in more than five games over that home stretch.  Was he turning a corner in terms of being more consistent in his own end of the ice?  Perhaps, but the irregular ice time seemed to play havoc with his offensive game, and in the end, the season seemed to have a certain unfinished mess quality to it.

Nevertheless, McMichael has outperformed his draft position (25th overall) in some ways.  His 69 games played ranks 14th in his draft class.  He ranks 13th in goals (nine), tied for 17th in assists (nine), 16th in points (18).  On the other hand, he has been on ice for 30 even strength goals against, 12th most among 33 forwards to appear in the NHL from the 2019 draft class.  His 10:22 in even strength ice time per game ranks 21st among those 33 forwards.  The odd part of it all is that he has not been particularly unresponsible with the puck, at least by one measure.  His 0.83 giveaways per 60 minutes are sixth-fewest among forwards in his draft class and third-best among forwards appearing in more than five games. 

What’s Next?  On-ice goals against are, at best, an indicator of defensive issues, but it seemed the Caps coaches saw something in his defensive performance that they just did not like and saw it with a consistency that was unsettling.  This was confounding give that his underlying statistics seemed much more impressive. Remember that scouting report from Elite Prospects – he has “[an] impressive hockey sense. Reads the game very well and plays well in his own end too (emphasis added).”  Developing a more consistent level of performance in his own end would seem to be the big thing holding him back from a larger role.

Whether McMichael gets a chance to assume a bigger role is a matter of conjecture at this point.  The Caps are an impatient club at the moment, trying to squeeze the last bits of competitiveness from an aging roster in search of another Stanley Cup. The Caps acquiring Dylan Strome, who can play center, sends a message.  Acquiring Connor Brown to play the left side sends a message.  Re-signing late-season pick up Marcus Johansson sends a message.  And that message is, we are here to win now.  The effect is to close off, or at least put up obstacles in the path of younger players such as McMichael, who would seem to be fifth on the depth chart at each of the three forward positions at the moment.  Given his production along his development arc leading up to last season, he was something of an enigma last season.  One hopes that description will not apply in 2022-2023 for Connor McMichael.


Sunday, September 04, 2022

The 2021-2022 Washington Capitals Rookie Class -- Then and When: Part 5 -- "Longshots"


In Part 5 of our look back and look forward for the Washington Capitals rookie class of 2021-2012, we look at three players, all of whom are members of the 2016 draft class of the Capitals, who might be considered longshots to reach regular NHL status, despite all of them getting a taste of NHL competition last season.

Beck Malenstyn, forward

Drafted: Washington, 2016 Entry Draft, fifth round, 145th overall; amateur team when drafted: Calgary Hitmen (Western Hockey League)

The 2016 NHL Entry Draft had its stars – Auston Matthews, Matthew Tkachuk, Alex Debrincat, Adam Fox among the more well-known names – but it was not an especially deep draft.  Only 20 players have logged as many as 200 regular season games to date from that class.  One might be forgiven for thinking that as the 22nd left wing selected in that draft, the odds would be long for Beck Malenstyn to make an NHL roster.  Set aside for the moment the fact that the Caps selected fellow left-winger Axel Jonsson-Fjallby two picks later.  Malenstyn has a total of 15 NHL games played (all with the Caps) over two seasons (Jonsson-Fjallby has dressed for 23 games, all of them last season). 

He has not separated himself as a productive offensive player to date, although he did show improvement as an amateur.  Over his first three seasons in Canadian junior, he was 16-24-40, plus-5, in 126 games.  After he was taken by the Caps in the 2016 draft, he went 49-39-88, minus-1, in 112 games over two seasons.  Upon graduating to professional hockey, he was 14-17-31, plus-5, in 120 games over his first two seasons with Hershey.  However, he then lost the 2020-2021 season to an Achilles tendon injury.  In addition to the 12 games he spent with the Caps in 2021-2022, he dressed for 65 games in Hershey, going 10-6-16, minus-8.

With the Caps, Malenstyn got a short look-see in 2019-2020, before the injury that cost him the following season.  But he did get 12 games with the big club in 2021-2022, recording one point – his first NHL goal – and posting a plus-2 rating.  His presence in the lineup did not quite rise to the level of good-luck charm, but the Caps were 7-3-2 when he was in the lineup.  That success did, however, break down along ice time lines.  The Caps were 5-1-0 when he skated 9:02 or less, but they were just 2-2-2 in games in which Malenstyn logged more minutes.

What’s Next?  Malenstyn’s “career potential” at TSN.ca is short and…well, not especially sweet: “Organizational depth forward.” But the Caps saw enough in his performance to date to sign him to a two-year/$1.525 million contract last June.  What the Caps might be envisioning down the road is an energy forward who can contribute in ways that do not show up in the box score.  He did lead all Caps rookie forwards in shorthanded ice time in limited play (0:44 per game).  He led all Caps rookie skaters in credited hits per 60 minutes by a whopping margin (18.79 to Martin Fehervary’s 9.69).  He led all rookie forwards in blocked shots per 60 (3.86). He was charged with only one giveaway in 12 games.  His future seems to be one of being the player who does the dirty work that often escapes notice but needs to be done.  Whether he will get that chance on a regular basis in the NHL, especially in the upcoming season, is less certain.

Garrett Pilon, forward

Drafted: Washington, 2016 Entry Draft, third round, 87th overall; amateur team when drafted: Kamloops Blazers (Western Hockey League)

When Garrett Pilon was drafted by the Caps in 2016, he was coming off a season with the Kamloops Blazers in which he posted 15 goals (tied for sixth on the team) and 47 points (also sixth on the team).  Not bad for a 17 year old in his first year in Canadian junior hockey.  In three more years in juniors (with Kamloops and the Everett Silvertips), Pilon demonstrated himself to be a reliable, if unspectacular scorer, going 54-91-145, plus-48, in 136 games.  He brought that consistency to Hershey n 2018-2019, with whom he has a scoring line of 49-78-127, plus-13, in 206 games over four seasons.

While he was developing his game in Hershey, Pilon got two brief stints with the Caps. He dressed for one game in 2020-2021, going without a point in ten minutes and change against Philadelphia, and he was called upon for two games last season with the Caps, notching his first NHL goal (his only point of the season) in a 3-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks.  If was on his only shot on goal over the two games.

What’s Next?  Pilon is not waiver-exempt, meaning that if he is assigned to Hershey to start the season, seems likely to spend the entire season there.  It is a difficult situation for him and the club with this being the final year of a two-year contract ($750,000 per year).  He will be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent at the end of the upcoming season, but with the likelihood that he will not see much, if any action with the Caps this season (he would be exposed the possibility of a waiver claim), he would have to impress in Hershey to bolster his chances of a higher payday in Washington.

Lucas Johansen, defenseman

Drafted: Washington, 2016 Entry Draft, first round, 28th overall; amateur team when drafted: Kelowna Rockets (Western Hockey League)

If it seems that Lucas Johansen has been a Capital forever, it’s not an unreasonable point of view.  He was the ninth and last defenseman taken in the first round of the 2016 Entry Draft and was the first of three players taken in that draft (the other two, Beck Malenstyn and Garrett Pilon, covered above) from the Western Hockey League in Canadian junior.  Johansen might have been more well-known when drafted as the younger brother of NHL forward Ryan Johansen (currently with the Nashville Predators).  His path to the NHL has been longer and steeper than that of his older brother.  After an impressive season with the Kelowna Rockets in the WHL in the season leading up to his draft (10-39-49, plus-11, in 69 games), he spent another year in junior, going 6-35-41, plus-23, in 68 games with Kelowna. 

From juniors it was on to the Hershey Bears where his career stalled.  He stared well with the Bears, going 6-21-27, minus-13, in 74 games with Hershey in 2017-2018, but there was a log jam of left handed shooting defensemen ahead of him on the depth chart.  An injury limited him to 45 games the following season (3-11-14, minus-14), but he was a persistent victim of a crowded field of suitors for those left-defense slots, and he played in only 14 games for the Bears over the next two seasons (0-4-4, plus-5 overall).  Last season, his persistence in the face of frustration appeared to be paying off.  In 62 games with Hershey, he was 8-20-28, plus-20, his goals, assists, and points each ranking second among Hershey defensemen, and his plus-20 rating ranking first among blueliners and second among all skaters (Joe Snively: plus-22).  It was encouraging enough to earn him a chance to make his NHL debut. Skating 12 minutes and change and posting an assist for his first NHL point in a 3-1 win over Detroit on New Year’s Eve.  It would be the only game he played for the Caps last season.

What’s Next?  The Caps still have some measure of faith that Johansen can be at least a depth defenseman for the parent team.  He was signed to a two-year/$1.525 million contract last July.  He would be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent when this deal expires.  Then again, with one NHL game on his resume (fewest number of games played among first round picks in his draft class) as he is about to turn 25 years of age (November 16th), one might wonder what the chances are that he gets a sweater on a regular basis with the Caps.  That the Caps would sign another left-shooting defenseman – Erik Gustafsson – makes his task to make the club harder.  With the first year of this deal of the two-way variety (his salary would be $125,000 with Hershey), he would be waiver exempt for the upcoming season, so there is some flexibility for call-up purposes.  If he does not make the squad out of training camp, then if any Capital might wear a path up and down Route 15 to Hershey and back over the course of the season, it might be Lucas Johansen.