Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“Luck is not chance, it's toil; fortune's expensive smile is earned.”

-- Emily Dickinson

If you are going to have a career year, it is best to have it in the last year of a contract before embarking on free agency.  It worked for Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson last season, when he parlayed a career year into an eight-year/$64 million contract.  While he will not earn quite the payday that Carlson earned last summer, Brett Connolly is poised to see the career year he had in 2018-2019 be converted into a handsome contract of his own.

It did not start out that way as Connolly started his eighth NHL season.  Coming off consecutive 15-goal seasons with the Capitals, both career highs for him, he played through his first five ten-game segments – 50 games played – with nine goals, another 15-goal pace.  He ramped up his production in a big way over his last three segments, though.  Connolly wrapped up the season with 13 goals in his last 31 games over those segments, a 34-goals per 82 games pace.

It was a career year for Connolly in goals (22), assists (24), and points (46), but it was a career year in other respects, too.  He dressed for 81 games, topping his previous high of 71 games with Boston in 2015-2016. His five game-winning goals were a career best, surpassing the three he had in his first year with the Caps in 2016-2017.  He also displayed a new-found assertiveness reflected in his shot total.  The 139 shots on goal he posted was not only a career best, it was the first time he topped 100 shots for a season, and his 1.72 shots per game was more than one-third more than his career average before this season (1.28).

Fearless’ Take… That Brett Connolly topped the 20-goal mark for the first time in his career is not the odd part of his season, but perhaps that he took as long as he did to get there.  This is a player who recorded 86 goals in 144 games in junior hockey, nine goals in 23 games in international tournament play, and 52 goals in 137 games in the AHL.  But there was an odd consistency in his early career.  In 201 games covering seven seasons with Tampa Bay and Boston, Connolly had 39 goals – a 15-goals per 82 games pace.  He scored precisely 15 goals in each of his first two seasons in Washington, but at a somewhat higher pace (18 goals per 82 games).  That he should make the leap to 22 goals might seem like a lot, but it appears more of a progression than a quantum leap when looked at in terms of goals per game.  That suggests that this season is not an aberration, but the maturity of a goal scorer who had a well-defined role and a career high in games played (81) to play it.

Cheerless’ Take… A strange thing about Connolly’s season was his ice time.  He skated more than 15 minutes 16 times in 81 games, but the Caps had only an 8-6-2 record in those games (he had four goals in those games).  He also skated less than 11:30 in 16 games, and the Caps had an 11-2-3 record in those games (he also had four goals in those games).   

Odd Connolly Fact… Brett Connolly had eight games this season in which he recorded a goal on his only shot on goal.  Only Dallas’ Cody Eakin had more such instances (nine).  In his three seasons as a Capital, no player in the league has had more one-shot/one-goal games than Connolly (24).  J.T. Miller is second with 16 such games.  And, those games have been good indicators of success, the Caps posting a 19-2-3 record in those 24 games.

Game to Remember… March 14^th at Philadelphia

When the Caps opened their next to last road trip of the season, they were packing a seven-game winning streak into their baggage.  However, they dropped a 5-3 decision in Pittsburgh to the Penguins to open their trip in what was a frustrating night for Connolly – no points and four shots on goal in just over 13 minutes of ice time.  A trip to Philadelphia two nights later would normally seem like a stiff test after such a loss, but the Caps had already taken two decisions from the Flyers this season.  In their second and final trip to Philadelphia this season, Connolly got the Caps on the right side of things early.  After an attempted keep-in by John Carlson of a fluttering puck dribbled to Michal Kempny just inside the blue line, Kempny sent a slap pass to Connolly just off the post to the right of goalie Carter Hart.  Connolly settled the puck and whipped it past the right skate of Hart to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 2:52 into the contest. 

The Caps took a 2-0 lead before the first intermission on a Lars Eller goal, Connolly recording the primary assist, but the Flyers halved the deficit barely a minute into the second period on a James van Riemsdyk goal.  Connolly restored the two-goal lead mid-way through the frame when he stripped Travis Sanheim of the puck at the Caps’ blue line, skated down the left wing accompanied by Carl Hagelin on his right.  As he got to the left wing circle he ripped a shot that sailed past Hart’s glove on the far side to make it 3-1 at the 8:43 mark.  It would be the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 5-2 win, his fourth of five game-winning goals this season, and his second three-point game of the year.

Game to Forget… January 23^rd at Toronto

Trips to Toronto are occasions for great anticipation by players.  And Toronto has become a difficult place for visitors with the Maple Leafs’ improvements over the last several years.  Compounding the problem for the Caps was that they would be playing the back half of a back-to-back set of games and doing so against a supercharged offense in the Maple Leafs.  The Caps got out to a lead late in the first period on a Nicklas Backstrom goal but surrendered the lead with less than a minute in the period.  Washington grabbed the lead again early in the second on a goal by Alex Ovechkin, but there the game took a turn.  Toronto scored four straight goals on their way to a 6-3 win.  It was a forgettable night for Connolly, who did not record a point, managed a single shot on goal, two shot attempts, and had a takeaway for his 12:44 in ice time.  He also finished minus-3 for the evening, his worst plus-minus rating of the season and only the second time as a Capital that he finished minus-3 (February 17, 2018 at Chicago in a 7-1 loss).

Postseason… Like his teammates, Connolly’s postseason breaks into home and road pieces, but perhaps not quite as cleanly as some of those teammates.  In four home games he was 1-0-1, plus-1, with seven shots on goal.  In three road games, Connolly was 1-0-1, minus-3, with two shots on goal.  His nine shots in seven games made his 2018 performance on the way to a Stanley Cup look like the outlier.  He had 32 shots in 24 games last spring (six goals), which was quite different from this spring’s effort and that of his first career trip to the postseason, with the Caps in 2017, when he managed only six shots on goal in seven games without recording a goal.

Looking ahead…

Brett Connolly is in an enviable place.  And then again, he is not.  The enviable part is that he had a career season as he enters his prime performance and earning years (he will turn 27 years of age on May 2^nd).  His current two-year/$3.0 million contract is expiring, and he will be due a big raise.  Looking at comparable right wings at capfriendly.com (24-30 years of age, 15-25 goals, 40-50 points this season), it would seem unlikely he would command the same money as Brandon Saad ($6.0 million cap hit) or even Tom Wilson ($5.167 million cap hit), but a contract at or north of $4.0 million per year hardly seems out of the question for a 27-year old right wing who can post 20-25 goals and has a Stanley Cup on his resume.

Where one does not envy Connolly is in facing the difficult decision between maximizing his earning potential and staying in a town and a team with which he fits, even if that team almost certainly cannot afford what other teams could offer.  Players dream about being in a position to use a career year to make a leap in earnings. Last year it worked for John Carlson and the Capitals, and made fans happy when he inked a long-term extension with the club.  Given all the decisions the Caps have to make about players this year and next,  it might be a bit too much to expect them to go two-for-two in re-signing a player coming off a career year.  This could come down to which player they want to pay $4 million, Carl Hagelin, who is more versatile, but who has never had a 20-goal year in eight seasons and is almost four years older than Connolly, or Connolly, the more productive offensive player, if somewhat limited to that role

In the end…

It took some time, but Brett Connolly re-engineered his game, from a top-ten draft pick expected to provide powerful scoring punch (a role in which he disappointed two teams) to a third-liner who can provide scoring production not usually seen from that layer of forwards.  He has paired well with Lars Eller over the last two seasons to make the Caps’ third line an important ingredient in their success.  But nothing lasts forever, especially in hockey, where circumstance and financial considerations make for constant and frequent player turnover.  The term “cap casualty” might be attached to Connolly this summer, but if it comes to pass, it is because his performance and contributions to the team’s success over the last three years made it so.  And fans should be happy with that.

Grade: B+

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“My yesterdays walk with me. They keep step, they are gray faces that peer over my shoulder.”

-- William Golding

Brett Connolly was a big scorer in junior hockey.  In his last three seasons with the Prince George Cougars in the Western Hockey League, he scored 86 goals in 140 games.  He looked the part of a sixth-overall draft pick (by the Tampa Bay Lightning) in 2010.  His early career numbers in the NHL could not match that level of output, or even come close.  In his first five NHL seasons, split between the Lightning and the Boston Bruins, Connolly recorded 27 goals in 210 games.

And then, he came to the Washington Capitals as a free agent in 2016.  In Washington, Connolly settled into a third line role and found some measure of his old scoring touch.  He scored 15 goals in just 66 games in 2016-2017.  It was for him a career high and helped him earn a two-year/$3 million contract with the Caps. 

Connolly matched that goal total in 2017-2018 in 70 games played, one off his career best (71 games with the Boston Bruins in 2015-2016).  More important to the Caps’ success this past season, he atoned for a seven game postseason in 2017 in which he did not record a point by scoring six goals and posting nine points in the 24-game march to the Stanley Cup.  He was also a remarkable efficient shooter.  Of 571 players recording 50 or more shots on goal last season, Connolly finished third in shooting percentage (22.4), behind Colorado’s Alexander Kerfoot and Vegas’ William Karlsson (both at 23.4 percent).  No player in the NHL with 15 or more goals did it with less average ice time per game than Connolly (12:00).

Odd Connolly Fact…

Following off a comment above, Brett Connolly was the only player in the NHL last season to score 15 or more goals and do it averaging less than one shot on goal per game (0.96).

Fearless’ Take…

Brett Connolly might not get the attention or the appreciation he deserves for that basic skill of scoring goals.  He is one of five Capitals who recorded at least 15 goals in each of the last two seasons (Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, and Evgeny Kuznetsov are the others.  He is one of six Caps to record at least ten even strength goals over the past two seasons (adding Lars Eller to the list above).  It is the sort of supplemental scoring successful teams need.  Last season the Caps lost only one game in regulation among the 14 contests in which Connolly scored a goal.

Cheerless’ Take…

Connolly has value as a goal scorer, but it doesn’t seem to extend to other parts of the game.  He has skated a total – not an average, a total – of 2:05 in shorthanded ice time in 136 games over two seasons with the Caps.  He did get more power play time last season (1:26 per game as a replacement for Justin Williams).  He was not especially effective in high level possession numbers (46.53 Corse-for percentage at 5-on-5/minus-2.04 Relative CF, both ninth among 13 Caps forwards playing at least 500 5-on-5 minutes; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Potential Milestones:

• 400 NHL games (he has 346)
• 200 Penalty minutes (he has 172)
• 500 shots on goal (he has 442)
• 5,000 minutes played (he has 4,098)
• 50 even strength goals (he has 45)

The Big Question…  Is Brett Connolly really that efficient?

Brett Connolly’s contributions on offense are predicated on a particular attribute – efficiency.  In 136 regular season games with the Caps, he has 30 goals on 148 shots, a 20.3 percent shooting percentage.  Of 559 players recording at least 100 shots on goal over the last two seasons, none have as good a shooting percentage (Montreal’s Paul Byron has a 19.9 percent shooting percentage).  And this begs the question, is Connolly that good or that lucky?  It has been quite a departure from his earlier career numbers.  Over his first five seasons with Tampa Bay and Boston, he had 27 goals on 294 shots, a 9.2 percent shooting percentage.  In half of the games in which he scored goals last season (seven of 14), Connolly scored on his only shot on goal.  Last season was the first in which he averaged less than a shot on goal per game. 

Here is a fact to keep in mind as this season begins for Connolly, coming off a 22.4 percent shooting percentage performance in 70 games.  Since the 2005-2006 season, only one player has had more than one season of appearing in at least 65 games and posting a shooting percentage over 20 percent.  Colorado’s Alex Tanguay did it three times.  There were 22 other players, including Connolly, who did it once. 

That shot volume will have to increase in frequency if his shooting percentage regresses.   However, there is that possibility.  Connolly did have an 18.5 percent shooting percentage in 2016-2017, his first with the Caps, and still posted 15 goals.  Even that percentage might be stretching possibilities, given that only Tanguay and Antoine Brunette have more seasons since 2005-2006 with playing in 65 games and a shooting percentage over 18.5 percent (three apiece).  Whether he can be as streaky as he has been in the past might tell the tale.  For instance, over an 11-game stretch last season (December 2 – December 28), Connolly had six goals on 11 shots (54.5 percent).

In the end…

Brett Connolly being reclaimed off the NHL scrap heap and becoming a productive player for the Caps is one of the better stories for the club over the past couple of years.  But the NHL never stands still, and upgrading when the opportunity presents itself is at or near the top of every general manager’s to-do list.  Connolly is entering the last year of a contract with a $1.5 million cap hit this season.  And, as the biggest offensive contributor among the forwards in the position of becoming an unrestricted free agent after this season (Devante Smith-Pelly is also an unrestricted free agent after this season, but he is not quite the offensive player Connolly is), there might some cause to look over his shoulder at a recent signing. 

At first glance, it would seem that the signing of free agent Sergei Shumakov is going to set up a battle at the right wing with Connolly to see who mans the third line on that side and who plays the right side on the fourth line.  It could give the Caps uncommon depth at right wing, with Tom Wilson and T.J. Oshie, where it is possible that all four finish the upcoming season with double digits in goals.

Projection: 72 games, 15-13-28, even

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2017-2018 By the Tens -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“Twice and thrice over, as they say, good is it to repeat and review what is good.”

-- Plato

When Brett Connolly signed a one-year, $850,000 contract with the Washington Capitals In July 2016, he arrived as a player with things to prove.  A sixth-overall draft pick in 2010, he was not able to translate that high selection into impressive numbers on the ice.  He spent three and a half seasons with the team that drafted him – the Tampa Bay Lightning – before he was shipped to Boston for a couple of second round draft picks (you are forgiven if you do not remember the selections as Matthew Spencer and Boris Katchouk).  He spent a year and change in Boston but was unable to put up noteworthy numbers there.

And that brought him to Washington on a one-year “demonstration” deal.  Demonstrate, he did.  In 66 games he recorded a career high 15 goals, a second-best 23 points, and a career best plus-20.  His reward was a two-year deal for $3.0 million.  The next task, then, was to demonstrate that the 2016-2017 season was not a fluke.

It wasn’t.  Getting mostly third-line minutes, Connolly duplicated his 2016-2017 season in goals with 15 in 2017-2018.  He added 12 assists, the second highest total of his career, and chipped in a career best four power play goals.  What was perhaps most amazing about his performance in 2017-2018 is that he took an uncommonly efficient shooting percentage in 2016-2017 (18.5 percent) and improved on it, reaching 22.4 percent this season.  Over his two seasons in Washington, of 1,104 players recording at least 50 shots on goal, Connolly has the fifth-best shooting percentage (22.4 percent).

It made for a consistent season as one looks at his goal production through his ten-game segments.  He failed in only one segment to record at least one goal (the seventh segment, for Games 61-70, which made up the last part of a 15-game goalless streak that would eventually reach 16 games).  He was just as consistent in posting points, with a slight upward trend in his production as he worked his way through the segments.

Fearless’ Take… The Caps got a healthy dose of secondary scoring this season, and Brett Connolly was in the thick of it.  He had points in 25 of the 70 games in which he appeared, and the Caps were 17-5-3 in those games. 

Cheerless’ Take… It was better if Connolly got those points early, cuz, because he didn’t wear well the longer he skated in games.  In 21 games in which he logged at least 13:30 in ice time, the Caps were just 8-11-2.  And the flip side of that “secondary scoring” thing is actually, you know…shooting the puck.  Washington was 15-11-2 in 28 games in which Connolly did not record a shot.

Odd Connolly Fact… The Caps have never lost a game in regulation on home ice when Brett Connolly scores a goal.  They were 12-0-2 in such games.   

Game to Remember… December 14^th at Boston

It is not often that a memorable game comes in one where a player fails to record a point, even rarer when that player doesn’t register a single shot attempt.  But sometimes a player contributes in other ways.  The Caps certainly have had the Boston Bruins’ number in recent years, and nothing in this game in mid-December would change that.  The Caps got a pair of goals from an unlikely source – Alex Chiasson – and multiple point nights from Alex Ovechkin and Dmitry Orlov.  Connolly’s contributions were of perhaps a more mundane sort, but they left an impression, no doubt.  Against a team for which he played in 76 games over two seasons, he registered four credited hits, tops among forwards for the game, and the Caps won, 5-3, in what was Connolly’s 300^th game in the NHL.

Game to Forget… October 26^th at Vancouver

Brett Connolly has never had much success against the Vancouver Canucks.  Fortunately, he had not had much opportunity to add to his misery.  Going into Vancouver for a game on October 26^th, Connolly was 0-1-1 in six career games against the Canucks.  He had the same scoring line after this game.  In a game that might serve as a thoroughly forgettable experience for the whole squad (the Caps lost, 6-2, after digging themselves a hole by giving up the game’s first five goals), Connolly skated a team-low eight shifts and 5:19 in ice time (his shortest night of work for the season).  He skated one shift in the second period and did not see the ice again, courtesy of an upper-body injury he sustained from a hit by defenseman Erik Gudbranson.  Connolly would miss the next seven games.

Postseason… Connolly took a while to get started on offense in the postseason, recording a lone assist in the six-game first round series against Columbus and getting shut out in points in Game 1 against Pittsburgh in the second round.  But he was a solid contributor starting with an insurance goal in the second period to give the Caps a 3-0 lead in Game 2, a game they would win, 4-1.  Starting with that game, Connolly went 6-2-8, plus-4, in his last 17 postseason games and shot an amazing 28.6 percent.  This despite averaging only 10:49 per game.  It was a far cry from last year’s postseason in which he did not record a point in seven games.

In the end…

Brett Connolly has carved out a productive niche for himself as a third liner who can provide some offensive pop.  He was sixth on the team in goals scored, tied for fifth in power play goals.  He was not an especially effective possession player (he was 15 of 26 skaters appearing in at least 40 games in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5), but he did have a reasonably good takeaway-to-giveaway ratio (0.89) for a player getting third line minutes.  His performance, repeating in many respects his 2016-2017 effort, help the Caps weather the departure of fellow right winger Justin Williams last offseason.  But while his 2017-2018 regular season did look a lot like a repeat of his 2016-2017 regular season, it was his erasing the memory of his 2017 postseason with a much more productive 2018 postseason that will merit repeat viewings.

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2017-2018 Previews -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“Always do whatever's next.”

-- George Carlin

When Brett Connolly signed a one-year, $850,000 contract with the Washington Capitals on July 1, 2016, it seemed an example of a player who was slowly playing himself out of the league, or at least into irrelevance, matched to a team willing to take a flyer on a still-young forward who could, if things worked  out, complement a deep stable of skilled forwards.

Connolly was about to join his third NHL franchise (drafted by Tampa Bay, later traded to Boston) after just turning 24 years of age the previous May.  And it was not as if his production was nearly that which might be expected of a former sixth-overall draft pick (2010). In 210 regular season games before joining the Caps he had just 27 goals and 59 points.

Connolly took advantage of his signing.  After a slow start brought on by disuse (he sat for 14 of the team’s first 31 games), he scored 12 goals in his last 49 games (a 20-goal pace over 82 games) to finish with 15, seventh-best on the team.  What is more, the goals mattered.  The Caps were 12-1-2 in the 15 games in which he scored a goal, and three of them were game-winners (two of them on the road). 

Those 15 goals he scored in just 66 games represented a career high, as did his plus-20, tied for seventh-best on the club (not bad for a player who was a career minus-15 coming into this season).  He had the third-best shot attempts-for percentage (Corsi-for) among forwards who appeared in at least half the team’s games (54.00 percent).  All of this was done in a season in which he played the second fewest games of his four full seasons and in which he averaged under 11 minutes per game, second lowest of any of his six seasons.

Odd Connolly Fact… Nine of his 15 goals last season came in games in which he recorded only one shot on goal.  No player in the league had more such games (Henrik Sedin had eight games of shot-and-a-goal).

Fearless’ Take…

Brett Connolly seemed to have a particularly good relationship with Lars Eller and Andre Burakovsky on the third line last season.   Both players had much better possession numbers with Connolly than apart.  Eller had a 56.12 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 with him and 49.61 apart, while Burakovsky’s numbers were 58.72 percent with and 50.96 apart (numbers from naturalstattrick.com).  What’s more, the “production” measure (shots for and against) aligned with the “performance” measure – goals for and against.  Connolly and Eller paired had a scoring advantage of 26-12 at 5-on-5, while Connolly and Burakovsky enjoyed a 17-6 scoring advantage at fives.

Cheerless’ Take…

Zero-zero-zero.  That was his scoring line in the postseason, and he didn’t take the ice after Game 1 against the Penguins.  He didn’t play as many as seven minutes in any of the last four games in which he appeared (of seven total).  He was benched in favor of Paul Carey, a player who had not been in a postseason game since 2014, in Game 2.  After that, the Caps went with seven defensemen in games and 11 forwards, Connolly being the odd-man out.  Even in the regular season, he scored more than half of his goals (eight) in a 16-game stretch form January 9^th through February 9^th.  Other than that, seven goals in 50 games looked a little more pedestrian (did I use that word right, Fearless?).

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2017-2018:

• 300 games played (currently has 276)
• 50 goals (currently has 42)
• 100 points (currently has 82)

The Big Question… Was Connolly a product of his linemates?

A backward-looking question such as this has forward-looking implications.  Brett Connolly had much more success skating with Lars Eller and Andre Burakovsky on the third line than he had with any other forward combination.  But one could make too much of that, given how few minutes he skated with anyone other forward at 5-on-5 (he skated 484 minutes with Eller, 277 minutes with Burakovsky, then just 85 minutes with the departed-at-the-deadline Zach Sanford and 81 minutes with Jay Beagle).

What was the third line could find one or more members of it on different lines this year.  Burakovsky seems likely to get a long look at being on the left side of the second line.  While this might leave Connolly with Eller, but looking for a new left wing (perhaps Jakub Vrana), Connolly could find himself on the right side of the second line with the departure of Justin Williams.  He will be battling with Tom Wilson for a look on that line, at least to start the season.

What complicates the question, though, is the way Connolly was used late in the season, as in “almost not at all” in the postseason.  It was a bad taste left in everyone’s mouth after a surprisingly good regular season.  But even there, there is a caution.  Connolly was not particularly consistent.  That surge Cheerless pointed out, and the so-so remainder of his game log, suggests Connolly has some work to do to be seen as a dependable player night-in/night-out, whatever line on which he ends up playing.  And that could depend on how well he plays with players other than Eller and Burakovsky.

In the end…

Right wing is a position that could be an issue.  With Justin Williams in Carolina and uncertainty about whether T.J. Oshie can repeat last year’s 33-goal production, getting more and more consistent play out of Brett Connolly is going to be needed to maintain a reliable level of production out of the right side of the forward lines.  And, it goes without saying that should the Caps reach the postseason, a scoring line of 0-0-0, minus-2, in eight minutes a game from Connolly (what he posted last spring) would be a disaster, absent other roster-making magic from the front office.

It would be fair to say that Brett Connolly made the most of the opportunity presented to him when he arrived in Washington last season.  Well, except for that postseason thing, but it was his first trip to the playoffs, too.  He signed a two-year/$3 million contract as a restricted free agent in June.  Now, the simple task on the to-do list is to do what comes next, fill a middle-six role on the right side in a consistent and reliable way.

Projection: 72 games, 12-12-24, plus-14

Photo: Claus Andersen/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2016-2017 By the Tens -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“Ask not what the role can do for you; ask what you can do for the role.”

-- Ricardo Montalban

It is hard to think of a 24-year old at a career crossroads, but last summer Brett Connolly might have found himself standing in one. A sixth-overall draft pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2010, he steamrolled through his last year of Canadian juniors, scoring 46 goals for the Prince George Cougars of the Western Hockey League. Then, he made the leap to the big club the following year, getting the call in 68 games for the Lightning in which he was 4-11-15.

It seemed to be a decent foundation on which to build a solid career in Tampa, but his progress came to a crashing halt the following year when he appeared in just five games for the Lightning and spending the bulk of his time with the Syracuse Crunch in the AHL. It was only marginally better the following season – 11 games with the Lightning and 66 with the Crunch.

In 2014-2015 he did seem to retrieve a bit of his scoring touch at the NHL level, scoring a dozen goals for the Lightning in 50 games, but he was a trading deadline casualty, sent to the Boston Bruins for a pair of second round draft picks. In a season and change with the Bruins, Connolly scored nine goals in 76 games, his career scoring line amounting to 27 goals and 59 points in 210 NHL games with two clubs. It was not the profile of a sixth-overall draft pick, and at the end of the 2015-2016 season he became a free agent, Boston declining to extend a qualifying offer to the player.

And that journey brought Connolly to Washington on July 1, 2016, signing a one-year/$850,000 contract. It was perhaps the move that head coach Barry Trotz alluded to before the unrestricted free-agent signing period began, ““We want to give some opportunity to our kids. They’ve made great progress, and I think they’ve earned that right to challenge for spots, and I think we’re not going to block them. I think if we do anything, we might add maybe one forward. I think we’ll be pretty quiet.”

With the Caps more or less set among their top six forwards, and perhaps even their top three forward lines, it was not immediately evident just what role an offense-oriented former top prospect fallen on hard times would play. And it did not help Connolly that he played only intermittently over the first month, appearing in just seven of the Caps’ first 15 games, recording just one point in the process (a goal against Calgary on October 30th), and just 17 of the Caps’ first 31 games (3-1-4, minus-1).

Starting on December 23rd, though, Connolly appeared in 49 consecutive games and going 12-7-19, plus-21, while averaging just 10:41 per game in ice time, for the most part on what was a solid third line for much of the season.

Still, Connolly’s ten-game splits were a bit odd.  His first four splits were light on production, a reflection of his intermittent play early on and settling into a role once he stuck in the lineup.  His pace picked up measurably in his fifth, sixth, and seventh splits over which he was 10-5-15, plus-17, over 30 games.  But he went almost silent in his last split of the season in which he dressed for 10 of the last 12 games (0-2-2, minus-1).

He still had good possession numbers overall, finishing third among Caps forwards playing in at least 25 games with a 53.92 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  When teamed with Lars Eller and Andre Burakovsky on the third line, he and his cohorts had the third-best Corsi-for at fives on the club (58.57 percent).

Fearless’ Take… That secondary scoring certainly comes in handy. Washington was 12-1-2 in the 15 games in which Connolly scored a goal this season, 16-1-2 in games in which he recorded a point. He was also consistent at home and on the road. At Verizon Center he was 7-5-12, plus-10, in 32 games, while on the road he was 8-3-11, plus-10, in 34 games.

Cheerless’ Take… Connolly seems to suffer from that weird Jason Chimera Syndrome thing. You know, the one where he’s hot one year, cold the next, then hot, then cold. With Chimera it was his goal totals. With Connolly it’s his shooting percentages… 4.3, 10.0 (ok, in only five games), 8.3 (alright, in only 11 games), 14.5, 9.5, and then 18.5 percent with the Caps this year. And more Connolly wasn’t necessarily a better thing. The Caps were 16-4-1 when he skated less than ten minutes; they were 16-3-1 in games in which he didn’t record a shot on goal (and he didn’t so much as record an assist in any of those games, either).

Odd Connolly Fact… Brett Connolly was the only player in the league to average less than 11 minutes of ice time per game and record 15 or more goals. And that isn’t even the odd part. Among players with at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, Connolly was 13th among 351 forwards in goals-per-60 minutes (1.28; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Game to remember… February 1st vs. Boston

Brett Connolly had one shot against his former team this season, figuratively (the only game against the Bruins for which he dressed) and literally (he recorded one shot on goal).  The Caps took a 2-0 lead at Verizon Center before the game was 15 minutes old, but Boston tied the contest on a pair of goals by Brad Marchand wrapped around the first intermission.  Alex Ovechkin broke the tie in the last minute of the second period, but the outcome was still in doubt as the third period started.  In the fourth minute, Evgeny Kuznetsov skated the puck through the neutral zone and gained the offensive zone.  Pushing the Bruin defense back, he fed the puck across to Dmitry Orlov in the middle.  Orlov sent the puck ahead to Connolly darting in from the right wing, and Connolly lifted a backhander past goalie Tuukka Rask as he was cutting across the top of the crease.  It was the game-winning goal – his only such goal on home ice this season – in the Caps’ 5-3 win.

Game to forget… March 4th vs. Philadelphia

If you are not a penalty killer, and your teammates are taking a lot of penalties, you are going to spend a lot of time watching a game, not playing it.  Such was the case on March 4^th when the Philadelphia Flyers visited Verizon Center.  Brett Connolly skated five shifts in the first period for 3:01 in ice time.  But when the Caps took two penalties in each of the last two periods tow give the Flyers four power plays after giving the Flyers a pair of man advantages in the first period.  Philadelphia did not convert any of the power play chances, but Connolly skated just five shifts combined over the last two period and finished the game with just 6:04 in ice time, a season low.  The only mark on his score sheet line was a shot attempt that was blocked.

Postseason: 7 games, 0-0-0, minus-2

Before the 2017 postseason, Brett Connolly had no games of playoff experience in his career.  His first experience was odd and disappointing.  Dressing for all six games of the opening round series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, he had what amounted to two distinct series, neither of which were productive.  In the first three games he averaged about 12 and a half minutes of ice time.  He did not record a point, and he had just four shots on goal.  In the back half of the series his ice time was cut significantly, averaging less than five and a half minutes per game and recording only one shot on goal without a point.  He dressed for Game 1 in the second round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins, but he skated barely six minutes with just one shot on goal.  He did not dress again in the series.

In the end…

Brett Connolly did what a player in his position had to do, to a point.  He came in on what amounted to a low-risk, high-reward contract with the Caps that, if he performed well enough, he could parlay into a better deal with longer term when his contract with the Caps was up.  After shaking off the inconsistency and intermittent appearances early, he performed quite well, displaying a high level of efficiency in the minutes he got.  But it dried up late in the season, and he (along with a lot of his bottom six forward cohort) underperformed in the postseason.  What had been a strength where it was a weakness the previous year – the bottom six forwards – once more became a weakness when it mattered.  Brett Connolly was a part of that, and it cost him what might have been a very high grade.

Grade: B

Photo: Claus Andersen/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Brett Connolly

Brett Connolly

“Still round the corner there may wait, a new road or a secret gate.”

-- J. R. R. Tolkien

Brett Connolly has been around for someone who turned 24 years old last May.  The British Columbia native played for his hometown Prince George Cougars of the Western Hockey League, scoring 30 goals in 65 games in his first full season of junior hockey, a performance good enough to earn him the Canadian Hockey League Rookie of the Year award.  The following season, in 2009-2010, he was plagued by hip problems that limited him to 16 games with the Cougars, but he was able to participate in the World Under-18 championships for a second time, and the following June was selected sixth overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL Entry Draft.

Another year of juniors (46 goals in 59 games, plus participation with the Canadian national junior team, and he was ready to make the jump to the NHL, or so it might have seemed.  Connolly’s rookie season in Tampa was underwhelming, finishing 4-11-15, minus-9, for a club that went 38-36-8.  It was apparent that he needed more seasoning, and the lockout that delayed the start of the 2012-2013 season afforded the Lightning the change to give it to him.  Connolly was assigned to the Syracuse Crunch in the AHL and ended up playing in only five games with the Lightning after the lockout ended.  It wasn’t much different the following season as Connolly played in 66 games with Syracuse and only 11 with the Bolts. 

Connolly’s 2014-2015 started slowly by missing 12 games with a lower=body injury.  Upon returning in late November, he was an efficient scorer on a goals per minutes played basis (1.3/60 at 5-on-5), but he was not getting much ice time (less than 12 minutes per game) and was generally playing with linemates of limited offensive skills.  With the Lightning headed to a 50-win season, they traded Connolly to the Boston Bruins for second round draft picks in 2015 and 2016.  He dressed for only five games with the Bruins to finish the season, failing to score a goal. 

Last season, Connolly dressed for 71 games with the Bruins and managed nine goals and 25 points, the games played and points representing career highs.  It was not enough for the Bruins to extend to the restricted free agent a qualifying offer.  On July 1^st, still just 24 years of age, he signed a one-year/$850,000 deal with the Capitals.

Fearless’ Take…

What comes to mind immediately with respect to Connolly is “too far, too fast.”  He was a hot shot junior player.  He was a top-ten draft pick.  He went straight from juniors to the NHL at the age of 19 without a game of AHL experience in between.   Although his ice time has been sparse for a player of his pedigree, he has been a good possession player, or perhaps more accurately, a better one.  He struggled in this regard with Tampa Bay, posting a Corsi-for at 5-on-5 under 50 percent in 79 games over three seasons (46.8 percent).  In two seasons in Boston he was over 50 percent (52.9 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  And this is a player who scored 86 goals in 144 games in junior and 52 goals in 137 games in the AHL.  On a team that is likely to have three solid, stable lines, Connolly is a potential low-risk/high-reward sort of signing.

Cheerless’ Take…

How do you score just seven even strength goals in 71 games playing most your 5-on-5 minutes with Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand?  That’s what Connolly did last season with Boston (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).   That’s not being a passenger, that’s being cargo.  Look at his numbers to date…through age 23, 210 games, 27-32-59, minus-15.  Know who that looks like since the 2004-2005 lockout?  Dustin Boyd (210 games by age 23, 31-31-62, minus-11) or maybe Shawn Matthias (205 games by age 23, 25-35-60, minus-10).  Boyd is out of the league, and Matthias is a decent, but unremarkable bottom-six forward on his fourth team.  He’s been a big scorer at lower levels, but he hasn’t been able to translate that into meaningful numbers at the NHL level.

The Big Question… Is Brett Connolly a “fourth liner?” 

That really isn’t an idle question.  At the moment, the top two lines of forwards are a known commodity.  Obtaining Lars Eller means that two-thirds of the third line is probably set with Marcus Johansson on the left wing.  One might reasonably think Tom Wilson gets a look at the right side on the third line.  If Daniel Winnik is on the left side of the fourth line, centered by Jay Beagle, this leaves the right side of the fourth line as a spot for which Connolly will fight, along with Stanislav Galiev, perhaps a Brad Malone (who is nominally a center) or a couple of others.  Malone is probably penciled in for Hershey, but for Connolly and Galiev, the stakes are similar.  Galiev is a little more than three months older than Connolly, but has played in far fewer games (26 to 210 for Connolly).  But both are at something of a crossroads, Galiev trying to get past the “prospect” portion of his career to demonstrate he belongs in the NHL, and Connolly trying to get past being the “hot prospect” and just find regular employment at this level.  They are similar “offense-first” kinds of players not normally associated with fourth line roles.  It will be an interesting contest.

In the end…

Brett Connolly has the potential to give the Caps’ fourth line more offensive production from the wing than they have had in recent years.  Looking at the parade of fourth line forwards from last season – Jay Beagle, Tom Wilson, Brooks Laich, Mike Richards, Daniel Winnik, Michael Latta, Paul Carey, Zach Sill, Stanislav Galiev, Chris Brown, Sean Collins, Chandler Stephenson – and the total was 25 goals, eight of them from Beagle and seven from Wilson.  Connolly isn’t going to get to 25 goals (he won’t be a fourth liner if he’s anywhere near that total), but he could credibly get half-way there.  On the other hand, he has very much been an underachiever relative to his amateur record and his draft position.  A combination of his own under-production and who he is skating with could depress his numbers.  There just isn’t much in his record to date to suggest whether he will go in one direction or the other.  One just hopes that Verizon Center is the secret gate through which he passes to find the game that one might have expected from the sixth overall draft pick of 2010.

Projection: 68 games, 6-9-15, minus-1

Photo:  Harry How/Getty Images North America