Washington Capitals: 2021-2022 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz

“Right now I'm having amnesia and deja vu at the same time... I think I've forgotten this before.”
-- Steven Wright

Justin Schultz’s career cleaves into two distinct pieces.  Over his first five seasons, with Edmonton and Pittsburgh, he was 41-119-160, minus-44 (minus-78 of that minus-44 was compiled for a ghastly Edmonton team that was 103-153-38 in the four seasons he played there), averaging 10-28-38 and 18 power play points per 82 games.  In the second half of his career to date, spanning the last five seasons, Schultz is 16-88-104, plus-6, an average of 4-21-25 and nine power play points with Pittsburgh and Washington.  In three of his first five seasons he topped 30 points, but he did not reach the 30-point level in any of his last five seasons (he might have done so in 2020-2021, when he finished 3-24-27 in 46 games of an abbreviated schedule).  His 2021-2022 season fell short of that average and begs the question of whether, as an unrestricted free agent, he has a future with the Caps.

Fearless’ Take… Despite what one might view as a sub-par season for Schultz, he did finish third in points of eight Capitals defensemen playing in at least 15 games.  While he logged little power play time (1:26 per game) relative to John Carlson (3:59), he did finish second in power play points among defensemen (five).  He averaged 0.31 points per game third among defensemen appearing in at least ten games), was 51.3 percent in shot attempts on-ice at 5-on-5 (third among defensemen appearing in at least ten games), and 0.81 assists per game (again, third). This despite averaging only 16:55 in ice time per game, sixth among defensemen appearing in at least ten games.

Cheerless’ Take… On the other hand, fifth in goals among eight defensemen appearing in at least ten games (four), worst plus-minus among defensemen by a country mile (minus-15, compared to minus-4 for Dennis Cholowski), sixth in shooting percentage among defensemen (4.4, third lowest of his career), 16:55 in ice time per game (lowest of his career), 0.62 takeaways per game, fifth among six defensemen playing in at least 15 games, fourth in missed shots (45), tied for third in goal against on-ice at even strength (57), worst on the club in even strength goal differential on ice (minus-13).  And, he might have been the most “sheltered” of defensemen with 58.4 percent offensive zone starts, highest among defensemen playing in more than one game.

Odd Schultz Fact… Schultz is tenth in career assists among all NHL defenseman born in British Columbia (207).

Odd Schultz Fact II… Washington was 12-3-1 in games in which Schultz did not record a shot on goal.

Odd Schultz Fact III… Schultz’ first goal of the season, the game-winning goal against the Rangers on Opening Night, was not all that unusual.  He has two career goals against New York.  Those would also happen to be the only career goals he has scored against Metropolitan Division teams (2-7-9, minus-3, in 23 games).

Game to Remember… October 13^th vs. New York Rangers.  Justin Schultz came into the season with ten career game-winning goals.  He made it 11 with a goal mid-way through the second period on Opening Night against the Rangers.  On a power play, the Caps worked the puck around the perimeter, Alex Ovechkin skating the puck into the offensive zone before feeding Schultz in the middle just inside the blue line.  Schultz fed Evgeny Kuznetsov, who returned the puck to Schultz for a one-timer that appeared to deflect off the stick of Mika Zibanejad before sailing past goalie Alexandar Georgiev on the blocker side to make it 2-0, Caps.  Washington went on to win the opener, 5-1.

Game to Forget… April 16^th at Montreal.  How does one merit a forgettable game when your team steamrolls the opponent?  Well, being on ice for every goal scored against would qualify.  When the Caps beat the Canadiens in Montreal in mid-April, 8-4, Schultz was on ice for all four goals scored against.  He did record a goal on a power play, leaving his rating at minus-4, his worst of the seaaon and the sixth minus-4 game of his career.  The odd thing here is that while he suffered on the defensive side of the puck, he did manage to record four shots on goal (and a goal) and eight shot attempts in 16:38 of ice time.  It did not seem quite fair, but the hockey gods are not always fair.

Postseason… Schultz has a postseason that was arguably an improvement over his regular season (1-2-3, plus-2, he and Trevor van Riemsdyk the only defensemen with plus ratings in the first round loss to Florida).  He also ranked second among defensemen in takeaways per 60 minutes (2.65) to Dmitry Orlov (2.72).  And this despite a reduction in ice time (15:05 per game).

Looking Ahead… Schultz is an unrestricted free agent.  Among eight defensemen with cap hits from $3.5 to $4.5 million (Schultz’ cap hit was $4.0 million) and age 27-35, Schultz was tied for fourth in goals scored last season, second in assists, third in points, seventh in plus-minus rating, and sixth in ice time per game (source: capfriendly.com).  Are those numbers enough for the Caps to consider re-upping him on a multi-year deal (he will be 32 years old on Opening Night next season)?  Whether here or with another team, does his performance merit a raise, or even a status-quo deal?  If the Caps go younger, Schultz could be a casualty as the team moves forward.

In the End… It was a season that Justin Schultz never really seemed to settle into.  The strengths he brings to the roster are duplicated in some areas (and with greater production) by John Carlson.  He can be a productive secondary scorer and second team power play performer, but things never seemed to break his way to be that player consistently this season.  And, it just magnified the occasional problems he has defensively.  All in all, a frustrating season.

Grade: C+

Washington Capitals 2021-2022 Previews -- Defensemen: Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz

“I think people who have faults are a lot more interesting than people who are perfect.”
-- Spike Lee

 

If one looks at the scouting report on Washington Capitals defenseman Justin Schultz at TSN.ca, you might think Schultz is among the most interesting people on the planet: 

• Assets: Can often act as a fourth forward on the ice, thanks to supreme offensive instincts and excellent mobility from the back end. A natural with the puck on his blade, he produces plenty of offense. Is a natural power-play QB, too.
• Flaws: Is wildly inconsistent. Has major holes in his defensive game, which can at times negate his offensive assets. Lacks the physical strength to effectively handle big NHL forwards at the highest level. Plays a passive game at times.

Last season, for the most part, Caps fans saw more of the “assets” Schultz than the “flaws.”  His overall top line numbers were good (3-24-27, plus-12), his on-ice even strength goal percentage (59.2 percent) was best on the team.  He was on ice for 31 even strength goals against, second fewest among the six Capitals defensemen to dress for more than 20 games.   

Odd Schultz Fact… Schultz failed to record a shot on goal only 12 times in 46 games, but the Caps were 8-2-2 in those games.

Odd Schultz Fact II… Schultz’ 1.3 primary assists and 1.9 points per 60 minutes last season were career bests.

Fearless’ Take… If you start with the premise that Schultz is primarily an offensive defenseman, then last year was a good one for him.  Whether he is an effective defender or not, there wasn’t a lot of bad happening on his watch on the ice.  And as for that offensive emphasis, it mattered.  The Caps were 16-1-2 in games in which Schulz recorded at least one point.

Cheerless’ Take… Good things happened when Schultz was on ice, for the most part, but his 49.0 percent shot attempts on-ice at 5-on-5 was worst on the team among defensemen appearing in at least ten games.  That is not an outlier in his career.  Seven times in nine seasons he was under 50 percent.  Some of those years were spent with struggling Edmonton Oiler teams, but the same pattern was evident in his years with a good Pittsburgh squad.  There is also the matter of Schultz’ durability.  He missed ten games last season with lower body and facial injuries.  Only three times in seven full NHL seasons did he dress for at least 70 games.  He has appeared in 80.6 percent of his teams’ scheduled games over his career.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021…

• 600 career NHL games (currently 528)
• 100 games as a Capital (46)
• 200 career assists (188)
• 250 career points (241)
• 100 career power play points (97)

The Big Question… Can Justin Schultz be the “1A” offensive defenseman on this club?

Schultz finished second among Caps defensemen in points last season (27) despite missing ten games.  Six times in nine NHL seasons he finished with more than 25 points.  He has a 51-point season on his resume (2016-2017 with Pittsburgh).  Schultz would seem to have it in him to relieve John Carlson of some of the offensive burden or, preferably, to supplement Carlson’s production.  This is particularly promising in that Schultz’ points output has been primarily a function of his assist totals (eight times in his career he finished with more than ten assists).  The Caps certainly have their share of finishers for Schultz’ playmaking.  He averaged more than half an assist per game last season, his 0.52 assists per game being a career high.  It would not be surprising if he pushed that a bit higher this season.

In the end…

That scouting report from TSN.ca sort of lingers when considering Schultz’ 2021-2022 possibilities, as does the matter of his durability.  The flaws were not as evident last year as they might have been in previous seasons, but on a team that could be unsettled on defense, at least to start the season – Michal Kempny’s attempt to comeback from serious leg injuries, the possibility of one or two rookies getting ice time (Martin Fehervary, Alex Alexeyev), some uncertainty in how the pairings will shake out – a solid three-zone effort from Schultz will be important for the Caps to stake a claim to a postseason berth.

Projection: 65 games, 6-31-37, plus-8

 

Washington Capitals: 2020-2021 By the Tens -- Defensemen: Justin Schultz

Justin Schultz

“Life is an adventure in forgiveness.”
-- Norman Cousins

Justin Schultz played for four-plus seasons with the Pittsburgh Penguins, a rival of the Washington Capitals of some note.  In 15 regular season games he played against the Caps in those four-plus seasons, he led Penguin defensemen in scoring (12 points in 15 games) and tied for the lead among Pittsburgh defensemen in power play points (five).  He was equally effective against the Caps in the postseason, going 2-8-10 in 15 playoff games, leading all Penguin defensemen in total points and posting the only game-winning goal recorded by a defenseman in that period.

And then, he was a Capital.  Schultz was signed to a two-year/$8.0 million contract last October after what were two disappointing seasons with the Penguins (2-13-15, even, in an injury-plagued 2019-2020 season that held him to 29 games, and 3-9-12, minus-13, in 46 games last season).  He was a bit sluggish getting out of the gate to start the season, failing to record a point in his first five games and registering only for shots on goal.  But then he broke out with three-straight two-point games, going 2-4-6, plus-5, with ten shots on goal over those three games.  But in the third period of that third game Schultz took a puck to the face the resulted in lost teeth and a few small fractures.  

That he missed only four games as a result of the injury seems almost miraculous.  But he came back almost picking up where he left off, posing points in two of three games upon his return.  After sustaining a bit of a slump (one point in nine games), he finished the regular season strong, but in a bit of an odd way.  Schultz posted 18 points in his last 26 games, but 17 of those points were assists.  He was 1-for-31 shooting the puck.  He also missed six of the last ten games of the regular season to lower body injuries.

Fearless’ Take… Schultz had a productive year on offense for the Caps, in a bit of an odd way.  He was the only defenseman in the league to post three or fewer goals, record 24 or more assists, and have a rating of plus-12 or better.  His on-ice goal differential at even strength (plus-14) tied for second-best on the team among defensemen, and his goal differential percentage at evens of 59.2 was best among Caps defensemen.  Ice time mattered as well.  In 25 games in which Schultz skated at least 19:24, the Caps were 19-3-3; they were 11-8-2 when he skated less than that.

Cheerless’ Take… Schultz is a bit of an outlier in this series.  It is hard to find a number or a statistic that one could point to and conclude that this is where he came up short.  We was a solid second pair defenseman who could also play significant second power play unit minutes.  There is the matter of injuries, though, that have worked their way into his record.  Although the early season puck-in-the-face injury was a fluke, Schultz has missed 86 of 207 regular season games over the last three seasons.

Odd Schultz Fact… The Caps were 9-0-2 when Schultz was credited with two or more blocked shots.

Odd Schultz Fact II… Schultz led the league’s defensemen in primary assists per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (0.94; minimum: 15 games).

Odd Schultz Fact III… Washington was 8-2-2 in 12 games in which Schultz did not record a shot on goal.

Game to Remember… April 9, 2021 vs. Buffalo Sabres.  When the Caps shuffled off to Buffalo for an early-April matchup, they were sputtering, going 2-4-0 over their previous six games.  Justin Schultz was a part of that, going 0-1-1, minus-6 over those six games.  The Caps broke out early, though, with Schultz recording the primary assist on a Brenden Dillon goal just 2:39 into the game.  The Caps doubled their lead nine minutes later, but the Sabres got one back late in the first period.  Schultz restored the Caps’ two-goal lead just 28 seconds into the second period, taking a feed off a faceoff win in the offensive end by Lars Eller, skating up into open space left by the Sabres’ defense, and rifling a shot past goalie Dustin Tokarski.  Buffalo closed to within a goal once more mid-way through the second period, but the Caps got insurance mid-way through the third period when Schultz recorded another primary assist, this one on a goal by Jakub Vrana.  That would prove to be the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 4-3 win.  Schultz finished with his only three-point game of the season, two hits, a blocked shot, and a plus-2 rating in 19:45 of ice time.

Game to Forget… January 28, 2021 vs. New York Islanders.  Yeah, let’s forget this one…

Postseason… Schultz did not record a point in the five-game opening round loss to Boston, and dating back to his last two seasons in Pittsburgh he is 1-3-4, minus-8 in 13 playoff games.  He did log a career high 22:24 per game in the 2021 playoffs.  His even strength goal differential percentage of 37.5 percent was disappointing considering how impressive it was in the regular season.  He was the only Capitals defenseman not credited with a takeaway over the five games.

Looking ahead… Schultz has one year left on his two-year deal with the Caps and a $4.0 million cap hit.  While it sounds like a substantial burden on the cap, and it is a $1.5 million reduction from his previous contract, it looks like a value in the season just completed.  Of 24 defensemen age 28-34 (Schultz will turn 31 on July 6^th) and cap hits from $3.5-4.5 million, Schultz finished fourth in points, fourth in points per game, eighth in plus-minus rating, and 15^th in average ice time.  Going into the walk year of his contract, something to watch for will be his durability.  He would certainly appear for the moment to get the minutes he will need to post attractive numbers, whether that is for a new Caps deal or for his next employer.

In the end…

Justin Schultz had a solid year in the games he played.  In a way, his top-level production seemed to be what the Caps might have expected from Michal Kempny had he been healthy.  And, they are players with similar durability issues.  If both return and avoid absences, while posting numbers on a per game basis Schultz produced this season, it will be a plus for the Caps.

Grade: B+