A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 7 - Senators 4

It was a “Super” kind of Sunday as the Capitals bounced the Ottawa Senators out of town this afternoon, 7-4, at Verizon Center. What do we mean, “Super?” It’s a football thing…

“46 defense.” In 1985, that was the name bestowed upon the defensive scheme of the Chicago Bears, one characterized by unrelenting pressure as eight men stormed the line of scrimmage. The equivalent? It was the early forechecking of the Capitals as they forced three early turnovers in the first two minutes to set the tone. Even when Ottawa scored (on a shot from Daniel Alfredssson that Shaone Morrison appeared to screen Brent Johnson from seeing), the Caps forced Ottawa into five more turnovers over the next six minutes as prelude to a penalty taken by Dany Heatley at the 9:40 mark of the first period.

“Wildcat” offense. It made something of a comeback in the NFL this year – it is a direct snap formation where the center snaps the ball to a player that is not the quarterback. Here, it was Nicklas Backstrom “snapping” the faceoff back to Mike Green who found paydirt three seconds after the Heatley penalty.

“Halfback Option.” You’ve seen it before…quarterback pitches to the halfback on a sweep, the runner pulling up to loft a pass downfield, often for a score. Here, it was Backstrom, pitching the faceoff back to Green, who found Alex Ovechkin for the one-timer four seconds after Jarkko Ruutu took a minor penalty for general obnoxiousness.

“Field goal.” OK, “hat trick”…Alex Ovechkin’s seventh as a Cap and second this year.

“Field goal.” OK, that would be the three assists from Sergei Fedorov, tying his high in assists as a Cap.

“Long bomb.” That would be the deep downfield pass that hits the wide receiver in stride for a length of the field score. This afternoon, that was Green flipping the puck from the Caps’ defensive zone out over the Ottawa defenders and into space in the neutral zone, where Alexander Semin could collect it behind everyone at the Ottawa blue line, skate in alone, and roof a backhand over Alex Auld (in relief of Brian Elliot, who gave up four goals on 16 shots before being pulled – guess that was sort of like the QB getting concussed out of the game).

“Prevent defense.” That’s when a team gets out to a big lead and sits on it late, playing passively, hoping the clock will run out before the opposition can chew up yards and score points. Many (us included) see the only thing “prevent defense” preventing is a win. Although the Caps engaged in a fair amount of that in the third period after racing out to a 6-2 lead after two periods, the clock did run out before the Senators could get all of the four-goal deficit back.

"Battle in the trenches." That usually refers to a ton-and-a-half or more of football players mauling one another at the line of scrimmage when the ball is snapped. Who wins that battle generally wins the game. Today, that was Boyd Gordon and Sergei Fedorov (far less than a ton-and-a-half of hockey player) winning eight of 12 defensive zone draws. For the day, they were a combined 17-for-29.

"70-chip." Any Redskin fan knows that one…the call in Super Bowl XVII that sprung John Riggins past the Miami Dolphins defense for a touchdown that gave the Redskins a lead they would not relinquish. Today, it was Eric Fehr diving inside of defenseman Chris Phillips as goalie Brian Elliott was turned the other way to chip home a loose puck just before ending up in the net himself.

“The Greatest Show on Turf.” That was the name given to the St. Louis Rams from 1999-2001. It was an offense characterized by speed, aggressiveness, and pinball machine-like scoring, especially in the home part of their schedule. The Caps are becoming the ‘Greatest Show on Ice.” The seven goals matches their high for the year – also on the first day of the month (January), against Tampa Bay. The Caps have been especially adept at abusing the Senator defense. In going 6-0-0 in the last six games against the Senators at Verizon Center, the Caps have scored 32 goals. Goalies are going to be coming up with mysterious groin pulls when a date with the Caps in Washington comes up on the Ottawa schedule.

"Cover two." You hear a lot of that in football games; it is a pass coverage scheme that puts responsibility on the safeties – the last guys back on defense – for covering half of the field in the deep defensive zone. For the Caps, that would be Milan Jurcina and Jeff Schultz. Yeah, we know, these two get a lot of grief from fans, but for the weekend, Schultz went plus-6 with five blocked shots, and Jurcina went plus-4 with seven hits and five blocked shots.

Seems the Caps play better football than the local football team. Of course, it helps that the team providing the opposition is as one-dimensional as it is. The Senators got a goal from Dany Heatley (gift wrapped by Tom Poti), two from Daniel Alfredsson… and almost nothing from anyone else. That’s been the Senators’ season.

And now, the Caps head to New Jersey, where they will try to end the Devils’ eight game winning streak. But to take a line from the late Herb Brooks, when he was talking to his 1980 U.S. Olympic Team about the Soviets… “someone’s gonna beat those guys.” The Devils’ last two wins both came in overtime. That streak looks like it’s coming to an end…

…Tuesday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, February 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is… on… the… zzzzzzzzzzz…

"Are you quitting on me? Well, are you? Then quit, you slimy bleeping walrus-looking piece of bleep! Get the bleep out of bed! Get the bleep down out of bed! NOW! MOVE IT! Or I'm going to rip your balls off, so you cannot contaminate the rest of the world! I will motivate you, Private Peerless, IF IT SHORT-bleeps EVERY CANNIBAL ON THE CONGO!"

Geez, Sarge…it’s early, and we had a prognosto yesterday…

"Today... is Christmas! There will be a magic show at 12 hundred thirty hours at Verizon Center! Alex Ovechkin will show you about how the free world will conquer the Ottawa Senators with the aid of God and a few Capitals! God has a hard-on for Capitals because they kill everything they see! He plays His games, they play theirs! To show their appreciation for so much power, they keep the standings packed with fresh losers! God was here before the Capitals! So you can give your heart to Jesus, but your ass belongs to the Capitals blogosphere! Do you understand?"

Sure, Sarge…whatever…

"Oh that's right, Private Peerless, don't make any bleeping effort to get to the keyboard of your bleeping computer. If God would have wanted you up there he would have miracled your ass up there by now, wouldn't he?"

Mmph…

"What is your major malfunction, numbnuts? Didn't Mommy and Daddy show you enough attention when you were a child?"

Ok, ok…I’m up…

"You little scumbag! I got your name! I got your ass! You will not laugh! You will not cry! You will learn by the numbers. I will teach you! Now get up! Get on your feet! You had best unbleep yourself or I will unscrew your head and bleep down your neck!"

Sir, Yes sir!

"Private Peerless, why did you join my beloved Blogosphere Corps?"

Sir, to BLOG, sir!

"So you're a blogger?"

Sir, yes sir!

"Then let me see your blog face!"



"That’s good Private Peerless…but don’t ever “bleep” out my lines again."

Sir, yes SIR!

OK, we’re up and ready… and we sure hope the Caps are, because it’s another 12:35 start, this time against the Ottawa Senators, a team that the Caps will face for the last time this year. And that might be a good thing, because the Senators have won two of the three games played so far (one in overtime). How they’ve managed to do that is a mystery, because frankly, their numbers suck on toast…


One looks at those numbers, and it becomes evident rather quickly how to beat that team – STAY OUT OF THE PENALTY BOX! Maybe we should get Sergeant Hartman to convey that message… Anyway, no team in the NHL has scored fewer 5-on-5 goals – 64 in 47 games – than have the Senators. By way of comparison, the Caps have scored 96 such goals (8th in the league). That, in a nutshell, is the key to the game… keep It 5-on-5.

Need a reminder?...

First game against Ottawa…no power play goals allowed… 2-1 overtime loss (hey, it was a point earned)

Second game… no power play goals allowed… a 5-1 win for the Caps.

Last game, a 3-2 win for Ottawa… three power play goals allowed.

Get the point?

Ottawa is probably thrilled to have January behind them. The Senators went 4-6-2 for the month and scored more than three goals only three times (for which they had only a 1-1-1 record). They were shutout twice and held to a single goal on three other occasions.

At this point in the show, we’d be extolling the performances of the ‘Big Three” top line of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daneil Alfredsson. Well, not this time. Of the 29 goals scored by the Senators for the month of January, the three combined for 10 goals (Heatley getting half of them). In fact, in the 12 games for the month, Heatley was 5-4-9, Spezza was 2-7-9, and Alfredsson was 3-8-11. Those aren’t bad numbers, but they aren’t the sort of point-or-better a game that one usually sees from this trio.

If anything, the rest of the Ottawa roster has had a balanced, if not necessarily prolific, scoring profile. Mike Fisher had four goals in January, Chris Kelly had three, as did Brendan Bell. Antoine Vermette and Chris Phillips had a pair. It just wasn’t enough to keep the Senators from sinking in the standings.

Ottawa has had to depend on an unconventional – for them – source of success… defense and goaltending. The Senators gave up 36 goals in 12 games in January, but that is a bit deceptive. 17 of those goals came in the first four games of the month, when Alex Auld and Martin Gerber were still fighting to see who could win the blue ribbon of suckitude. Brian Elliott took over on January 10th and promptly lost to the Rangers, but giving up only two goals in the process (the Senators, perhaps predictably, were shut out). For the month, Elliott was 4-2-1, 2.27, .918, including a 3-2 win over the Caps. Auld got the start in the Senators’ last game – a 1-0 shutout against Columbus – while Gerber is in Binghamton pondering an uncertain future.

The trouble that an Ottawa goaltender might face though, lies directly in front of him. Chris Phillips is (still) on the way to perhaps the worst season of his career. He hasn’t been a “minus” player since the 1998-1999 season – his second, when he was -5 in 34 games. Today, he will skate onto the ice at -21. If there is a silver lining, it might be that he was “only” minus-2 for the month of January.

Anton Volchenkov is another player struggling with being on the ice for more goals against than goals for. He is -12 in 34 games this year. He was plus-1 for the month, but played in only four games. He did not dress for the last game against the Caps, but should bring his shot-blocking expertise to this one this afternoon.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Brian Elliott

OK, the Caps have seen him now. This will be the first team that Elliott has faced a second time this season, and he’s getting the chance in front of what is expected to be a sellout crowd. Also of note here, Elliott has only played in two road games among the seven he’s started. Not that he’s done poorly – a 3-2 win over Atlanta and a 3-1 win over St. Louis. Now, he jumps up several weight classes in competition.

Washington: Eric Fehr

Fehr had several excellent chances to score yesterday and didn’t. It’s getting to be the time in his career where he shows he was that big goal-scorer he was in junior and in the AHL. He doesn’t have to net 20 goals in the last 32 games to make that point, but he hasn’t had one since December 4th against the Islanders – a span of 14 games. We’re guessing he’ll get chances today, given the state of the opposition and the likelihood that they focus on other Capitals.

Washington has struggled offensively in day games this year – seven goals scored in three contests (they’ve allowed ten). It’s somewhat odd, too, given that the Caps lead the entire NHL in shots taken per game in the daylight. Hopefully, they got their “day legs” under them yesterday against the Red Wings and can avoid the “sleepiness” that Alex Ovechkin talked about after yesterday’s win. Will they?

Hey, do you read this stuff?

Caps 5 – Senators 2

A NO-point night: Senators 3 - Caps 2

When you play for a point, you often get none, and that’s what happened tonight as the Caps dropped a 3-2 decision to the Ottawa Senators.

Three times in less than three minutes late in the third period the Caps took icing calls, and you could sense a momentum shift after the Caps had controlled play for the second period and a good portion of the third. Then, Alexander Semin proved rather conclusively that two wrongs don’t make a right. First, he gave the puck away in the offensive zone, and then he compounded the error by taking a ill-timed swipe at Daniel Alfredsson, tripping the Senator and earning a trip to the penalty box.

As if trying to pile the bad karma onto the Capitals all at once, Brendan Bell fired a shot from the right wing faceoff circle that Karl Alzner blocked late in the ensuing power play. Unfortunately, Alzner blocked it right back onto the blade of Bell’s stick and Bell, in what was more reflex than shot, snapped the puck past Jose Theodore for the winner. The goal came with only five seconds left on Semin’s penalty – an important consideration.

Why? Because the Senators scored all their goals on the power play. In fact, that’s the only way teams have scored on the Caps lately. Since Ryan Whitney scored at even strength for the Penguins in a 6-3 Caps win on January 14th, the Caps have gone 198:34, and counting, without allowing an even-strength goal.

The flip side of that is that the 3-for-6 penalty killing performance tonight leaves the Caps having killed off only 32 of their last 44 shorthanded situations (72.7 percent) over their last eight games.

Speaking of even strength, Alex Ovechkin has a total of four even strength points in 2009, only one in his last eight games.

Here is the interesting number for the night – 13. Both teams had 13 shots on the power play. Ottawa scored on three of theirs, the Caps scored on none of theirs.

Alex Ovechkin had only one shot in the third period. Alexander Semin…one. Mike Green…none. Only eleven skaters for the Caps registered any shots in this game. Draw your own conclusions on the chances the Caps were going to get that third goal.

Jose Theodore deserved better. He gets a player shoved into him by his own defenseman to put him off balance on the first goal, has another goal scored when a puck goes off a teammate, then allows the last goal when a blocked shot ends up on the only place it could do damage – right back on the original shooter’s stick.

OK, we get that Tomas Fleischmann isn’t going to have the kind of inky scoresheet that comes with hits, blocked shots and that sort of thing. In fact, except for an assist, his scoresheet is absolutely blank – no shot attempts, no hits, no takeaways, no giveaways, no blocked shots, nothing in 12:40. Now…explain how Chris Clark’s scoresheet looks exactly the same (including the assist).

Donald Brashear looked at times like he was shot out of a cannon. Three hits, a takeaway, and a lot of pestering of Senators in his 9:53. If the Caps had won (as in, had they showed up in the third period), he’d have been a shoe-in for the hard hat.

We wonder…have services been scheduled to pay our respects to Jarkko Ruutu after Mike Green bludgeoned him at the bench in the first period? Where do we send flowers? Oh, you say Ruutu was up and perky on the bench right after? That maybe he “embellished” things a bit?....nooooooo.

Mike Green had seven shots on goal for the game. The rest of the defense?...one.

Ottawa had 22 blocked shots. The Caps had four. Who was paying the price out there?

Tell me that if before the game, if someone had said that the Big Three for the Senators would be held to two points (both goals by Dany Heatley) and go a combined minus-5, you’d have concluded that the Caps would lose this game.

It was an odd game. The forwards didn’t do much in terms of playing defense, and the defense didn’t generate much by way of offense. It was a game wrapped around a game. The game in the middle was the one in which the Caps generated 19 shots, two goals, held the Senators to three shots, and didn’t take any penalties. In other words, the game we were expecting.

The game wrapped around that one was the Caps marching to the penalty box (three minor penalties taken in each of the first and third periods), giving up three power play goals, not getting any power plays of their own in the third period (not that they were forcing the action to draw penalties), and getting only 12 shots on net in the first and last period combined while the Senators launched 31 on net.

The Caps escaped with a win yesterday because the Islanders lack talent. They didn’t escape this one because the Senators, despite their record, do have some talent. Both were opponents the Caps should have dispatched in a straightforward fashion. They didn’t and it reveals an inconvenient truth. The Caps are a team of considerable talent, but they also have a “too pretty” look about them too often, a team that doesn’t handle adversity well, whether back to back games (they are 3-5-1 in the second half of back-to-backs this year) or in killing off penalties in critical situations. With a difficult four-game stretch coming out of the All Star break – Boston, Detroit, Ottawa, and New Jersey – it can’t be an anxiety-free week ahead, even for a team with 30 wins.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, January 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Didn’t we just do this?

Well, it will be the last time we do this before the all-star break, and the Caps have a chance to head into the break only six points behind Eastern Conference leading Boston. But it’s also a beginning here in the States with the inauguration of a new President, and we’re taking advantage of the day to get some insights on politics and hockey from a few of those who have taken the oath of office…


Franklin Delano Roosevelt…you took office in the midst of an economic downturn, so you’re familiar with despair. Can you tell us, is there any chance that any team in the Southeast can overtake the Caps in the second half?

“I saw one-third of a nation ill-housed, ill-clad, ill-nourished when I took the oath a second time…but when I see the rest of the Southeast, well…they just suck.”

Do you have any advice to give to Caps fans who might be anxious about the team’s chances to hold onto their lead?

“The only thing they have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”


John Fitzgerald Kennedy, you called a nation to service in your inaugural address. Can you give any advice on service and teamwork to the boys as they close out the first half of the year?

“Ask not…what your teammate can do for you. Ask what you can do for your teammate.”



Lyndon Baines Johnson, you talked about belief in your address. Last year, the Caps and their fans made one last big rush to the anthem of “Don’t Stop Believing.” Can Caps Nation do it again?

“We are a nation of believers. Underneath the clamor of building and the rush of our day's pursuits, we are believers in Ovechkin and Backstrom and Theodore, and in our own Union. We believe that every Cap must someday hoist the Stanley Cup. And we believe in ourselves.”

Sound advice…but what is it with you guys? FDR…JFK…LBJ. Known by your first, middle, and last names. Called by your initials. What’s up with that?

Hey, don’t forget about me?... Alexander Mikhaylovich Ovechkin.



Well, that’s a bit of a mouthful, and besides the Constitution won’t let him serve. Caps fans would probably prefer he play the left wing for the local hockey team than run on the left wing of politics, anyway. In any case, he and the rest of the Caps will be skating the second of a back-to-back in Ottawa against the Senators.

As for the Senators, who are these guys?

We’re used to seeing the Senators piling up goals, to seeing Dany Heatley ripping shots off the left wing, to seeing Jason Spezza setting up Daniel Alfredsson for a score or two. This team, on the other hand, is having uncommon trouble scoring goals, as the numbers show…



Ottawa has had a rough time over the last six weeks. Since defeating Pittsburgh 3-2 on December 6th to get to .500, they are 5-11-3. They went a month – between December 13th and January 13th with winning only one game in regulation time (they added an overtime win to go 2-9-1). In that difficult 19-game stretch, the Senators had trouble scoring – 45 goals for a 2.37/game average – but not altogether different than the struggles they’ve had all year. However, they gave up goals with alarming regularity. They surrendered 67 goals (3.53/game) and allowed four or more ten times.

Part of the problem Ottawa had in that 19-game run was that they suffered an eight-game road trip in the middle of it on which they went 1-6-1. Since coming off that trip, they dropped a game to the Rangers but otherwise have shown signs of improvement of late, getting points in their last three games (2-0-1) and breaking out with 12 goals scored. Granted, the two wins were against Carolina and Atlanta of the Southeast – teams in the bottom third of the goals-against statistics—but progress has to start somewhere.

Part of the problem for Ottawa is that they are a one-line team, and that line isn’t even performing at a level to which fans have become accustomed. Consider Dany Heatley. In the three years following the lockout he averaged 101 points per 82 games. He currently has only 41 in 43 games – a 78-point pace. Jason Spezza spent three years scoring at a 105-point pace per 82 games. He has 37 points in 43 games – a 71-point pace. That he has a sore back -- he left practice on Monday -- makes things even worse. And Daniel Alfredsson, who was scoring at a 102-point pace per 82 games in the last three years, has 40 points – a 77-point pace.

After that, no forward has as many as 20 points for the Senators. No forward other than the big three have more than six goals. And it is not as if those other forwards are making up for their lack of offense with increased attention at the defensive end. Four forwards of that group are -10 or worse, while only two – Dean McAmmond and Shean Donovan – are on the plus side of the ledger. The “Pizza Line” of Heatley, Spezza, and Alfredsson might deliver, but there haven’t been any additional toppings for the Senators in too many games this year.

Perhaps just as troubling for the Senators is the performance of key defensemen. Over the last three years, Chris Phillips is 14-49-63, +70. This year, he is currently 4-5-9, -19. He does appear to have stopped the bleeding in a way – he is 2-0-2, even, over his last nine contests. Anton Volchenkov has been out with a shoulder injury, missing ten of the last 11 games. But in the 31 games he has played, he is 2-1-3, -13. And, the thing for which he is perhaps most known – blocking shots – is down. Two years ago, he averaged 3.50 blocked shots per game. Last year that number was 3.12. This year it is 2.81. Injuries might have something to do with the decline, but Volchenkov has not been as effective.

No position is more of a mess with the Senators, though, than that of goaltender. Alex Auld started the year respectably, going 9-6-3 in his first 18 decisions. But he has been awful since a win at Pittsburgh on December 6th. Since then he is 0-5-2, 4.38, .866 and has only played in three games since Christmas. Martin Gerber couldn’t claim having even had a good start. He has failed to put together consecutive wins this season in going 4-9-1, 2.86, .899. He is in the midst of a two-week “conditioning” stint with Binghamton of the AHL. He’s allowed seven goals in two games with the junior Senators…it doesn’t seem likely he’ll be back in Ottawa.

That would seem to leave things in the hands of Brian Elliott, who until taking the reins on January 10th against the Rangers had appeared in one NHL game (a 3-1 win over Atlanta in October 2007). In four games since taking over the top spot in goal, he is 2-1-1, 2.22, .921.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Jarkko Ruutu

Nope, he doesn’t have a particularly noteworthy career scoring line against the Caps – 1-2-3, +2 in 12 career games. He’s only 3-9-12 so far this year in 39 games. He’s played in every game this year in which he has been eligible to play. And that’s the rub – he’s served a pair of two-game suspensions – once for elbowing Montreal forward Maxim Lapierre in the head, the other for using the finger of Buffalo forward Andrew Peters for an hors d’oeuvre. He’s not in the lineup to contribute to the scoring totals, he’s there to set a tone. And that tone is the hockey equivalent of running fingernails down a blackboard.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

In his last ten games against the Senators, Ovechkin is 11-8-19, +7. And, while Ovechkin is a remarkably consistent point producer, he is very much like goal-scorers in that they seem to come in bunches. After going four games without finding the back of the net, he has four in his last three games. His history against the Senators, his being in the midst of what looks like one of those goal binges, and facing an inexperienced goalie could be the perfect storm for the Caps.

It might seem like cliché to say that one wants to go into a break on a high note, but it applies. A win would make the Caps 7-3-0 for the month, the last four in a row. Given that they’ll be coming out of the break to face Boston and Detroit, it would be nice to bank two more points. It says here that they will…

Caps 5 – Senators 3

A TWO-point, three-goalie night: Caps 5 - Senators 1

It was a full day.

First, the goalie with the hip problem has to start because the other goalie suffered a hip problem of his own (they don’t have this many hip problems at Sunset Pines Retirement Home). Then, the guy who works in web production – who conveniently enough actually played goaltender in Division III hockey – was signed to an amateur tryout contract after the team received special permission. He skated out for warm-ups, in what has to be the bar story to trump all others when he’s knocking a few brews back with friends 30 years from now, and didn’t look half bad out there. Then, the star kid goalie (Simeon Varlamov), who was called back while his team was on a bus in – wait for it – Gonzales, Texas, flies back to DC and gets to the bench mid-way through the first period.

The question we have is, “is this the first time two goalies dressed for their first NHL game since…the first NHL game?”

That the Caps then went out and pasted the Ottawa Senators, 5-1, was almost an afterthought. Certainly the Senators looked as if they considered the game an afterthought. To be fair, Ottawa did play with some energy in the first three-and-a-half minutes or so, when they registered the first four shots of the game. Then, Nicklas Backstrom, who is a lot stronger on the puck than he was last year, fended off a Senator defender, and swept a pass to Alexander Semin easing down the wing, inside of Backstrom. Semin deked a little here, dipsy-doo’ed a little there, and as soon as you could say, “game over, man…game O-ver,” the puck was slipped just inside the far post under goalie Alex Auld.

After that, Ottawa just didn’t look as if they had a lot of energy. Then they did something stoopid. You knew, you just knew that given the tender hip Johnson was lugging around, Jarkko Ruutu was going to take a run at him. He did – at 13:33, well after Johnson froze the puck on a Ruutu shot, but Ruutu skated right up to him and all but ran him over, prompting a response from Shaone Morrisonn that got both sent off for roughing.

Ruutu’s effort did not have the intended effect. Johnson didn’t miss a beat, and the Caps stepped their tempo up a notch, scoring the four goals in the next 40 minutes of clock time. By the time Jesse Winchester got a garbage time goal with 2:23 to go in the game, the Senators – Alex Auld in particular -- had the look of a team that wanted to find the bus to the airport.

Some observations…

Speaking of Auld, he took one right off the coconut that had him shaking his head to try and get his bearings, and the Caps missed a chance to make it six goals on the night as Auld was doing his best imitation of Rocky trying to get off the canvas at the end of Rocky II.

He wasn’t the only one to take abuse from a puck. Anton Volchenkov – the shot-blocking machine – took one in the leg that left him limping for the bench. He did not play in the third period. The Caps had 16 of their 34 shots in the third period. We do not see this as a coincidence.

The Caps were guilty once more of some creative ways of giving the puck back, but for the most part used the opportunity of some improved health to so their “red swarm” thing. When they have nights like this, one wonders how they ever lose a game. Having seen some of the ways they’ve lost games, we don’t wonder too long.

Mike Green…1-2-3. Sergei Fedorov…0-3-3. Think they weren’t missed?

I don’t know about the hard hat, but Donald Brashear deserves something for his effort tonight. He was flying out there and looked from time to time as if he’s spent some of practice trying to duplicate moves that Alexander Semin uses. One sequence where he lugged the puck from center ice through the offensive zone, around the back of the net, and fed a centering pass…we were wondering where the crap that came from.

Viktor Kozlov had one shot on goal and no points, but his contribution in lugging the puck into the zone under control so that the Caps could set up an offense shouldn’t be diminished.

Much will be made about the Senators getting 33 shots on Johnson. Well, the line of Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, and Daniel Alfredsson had a total of four (and didn’t register a point). We’ll take that.

Alex Ovechkin had two goals…and no hits. Don't see much of that.

Coming into this game, Karl Alzner had five straight games with more than 20 minutes of ice time. Tonight, 15:45. And half a minute of that was some power play time to end the game. That’s what Mike Green coming back will do (Green had 21:56).

Good things happen to those who shoot. Just ask Brooks Laich, whose turn-and-fire from the blue line looked like it might have nicked the shaft of a Senator stick just enough to distract Auld trying to snare it with his glove.

The Caps were 3-for-7 on the power play tonight. That makes a neat 20-for-60 in their last 15 games.

Nicklas Backstrom had three assists tonight… that’s 9-17-26 in his last 18 games.

The mystery man we looked at in the pre-game – Antoine Vermette – looked really, really good skating with the puck and creating chances. Finishing those chances?...not so much. He was actually the best player on the ice for the Senators tonight.

The five goals the Caps netted represent the high-water mark against Ottawa this year, although they did allow four in two of their previous five games.

It was an entertaining hockey game, to be sure. But nothing is going to beat the guy in the cubicle -- Brett Leonhardt -- who was told by George McPhee, “Make sure your gear is down at Verizon and be ready to go at five." As a fan, we couldn’t take our eyes off him in warm-ups. What a thrill it must have been.

Only in hockey.

Great job, boys…and nicely done, Brett.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Ottawa, December 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Friday Night on Fun Street… Singles Night… Toys for Tots Night… and the Ottawa Senators are visiting. What’s not to love? Well, the Senators, if you’re an Ottawa fan. The Senators come into this one having struggled all year. They’re 10-11-5 overall – last in the Northeast. The picture hasn’t been pretty…


It puts us in mind of a song…

“O” is for the offense of their first line…

Dany Heatley, Daniel Alfredsson, and Jason Spezza rank 1-2-3 on the club in goals scored, having accounted for 33 of Ottawa’s 62 goals scored this year. That is a pace for about 104 goals. Last year, they totaled 115, but the trio also missed a combined 29 games. Right now, they are the top line, but not necessarily a “top” line…at least not to the degree to which we’ve become accustomed over the last several years.

“T” is for the third line that can’t score.

Frankly, no one outside of the top line can score. 29 goals are spread over 22 other skaters not on that top line who have dressed for the Senators this year. None of that group has more than four, and the pair that has that total – Nick Foligno and Shean Donovan – are not generally on the tip of the tongue when reciting top goal scorers.

“T” is for the trying times this year.

Ottawa has not won more than two games in succession this year. On the other side, they have streaks of 0-4-0 and 0-4-2. Their record of 3-2-1 over their last dozen ranks with their most sustained run of success this year over any similar stretch of games. For a club with a reputation for offense in this decade, they clearly struggle, especially on the road. They have the second fewest goals scored on the road this year (11) and the worst goals-per-game average (1.82). And while they do not have an awful road power play (they rank 20th at 15.9%), they don’t get many opportunities – 26th in total road power play opportunities (in 11 games).

“A” is for the absence of an offense

Only five times in 26 games have the Senators scored more than three goals. Seven times, they have scored one or none. They are 6-for-51 in on the power play in their last dozen games (11.8 percent).

“W” is for the wins rare on the road

Ottawa is 3-6-2 on the road. They are 0-5-2 in their last seven road contests, scoring a total of eight goals in the process (and suffering two shutouts).

“A” is for Antoine Vermette, where’s he?

What happened to this guy? After three years since the lockout that saw his point total increase from 33 to 29 to 53 last year, he was signed to a two-year contract to re-up with the Senators. And he’s fallen with a thud – 2-3-5, -8 in 26 games. He’s on a pace to finish with barely half as many points (15) as he had goals last year (24). He hasn’t had a goal since November 1st and has only one point since then in 15 games (going minus-7 in the process).

Put them all together they spell “Ottawa”…a team that’s just a myst’ry to me.

That would be an understatement. The Senators have to be on a short list for most disappointing team in the first third of the season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Alex Auld

Strange though it might be, the Senators are what they are, and that is an offense-challenged team, especially once one gets past that first line. That puts more emphasis on defense and goaltending, where in fact Ottawa has had some fine results. Alex Auld is said to be the likely nominee to defend the Ottawa goal tonight, and he’s had a nice run of success. Auld has lost only one game in regulation in his last eight appearances (4-1-3, 1.80, .925). He is 3-2-1, 2.27, .924 in seven career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Last year, Ovechkin was 6-4-10, +5 in four games against Ottawa, and he has ten goals in 13 career games against the Senators. He’s sputtered a bit on the last half dozen games, goal-scoring wise (two goals, despite 47 shots on goal) after recording five goals in three games over the Thanksgiving holiday week. He might also have an opportunity to respond to the two players immediately ahead of him in the scoring rnakings – Sidney Crosby had three assists, and Evgeni Malkin had a goal and an assist in a 9-2 win over the Islanders last night.

Ottawa might have their offensive problems, but their reputation suggests that one should not take them lightly in that regard. Brent Johnson’s hip makes for some mystery as to who will start in goal for the Caps tonight, and that means something – Johnson is 4-1-1, 1.89, .944 with a shutout in seven career appearances versus Ottawa, while Jose Theodore has struggled (7-12-2-1, 3.20, .898 in 23 career appearances). Still, Washington come in getting healthier, the Senators come in frustrated.

Washington 4 – Ottawa 2

A ONE-point night: Senators 2 - Caps 1 (OT)

Did you ever find yourself at a traffic light…the light turns green, you step on the gas, and the engine revs up, but you go nowhere?

That’s the Caps right now – stuck in neutral. Such was the case last night as the Caps managed to slip only one shot behind Ottawa goalie Alex Auld in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Senators. What happened?

Alex Ovechkin was held to four shots in his return, none in the last 34:28 of regulation and 4:20 of overtime. It would have made a nice story if he’d notched a goal or two in his return, but the time off showed late.

One minor penalty…one. That was what was called on Ottawa in 64:20 of play. Eric Furlatt and Don Koharski were not paid by the whistle, that’s for sure.

Washington – a town used to quarterback controversies in football – now must think that it is seeing (or about to see) one in the nets for the Caps. Since a lackluster effort in relief in a 7-0 loss to Atlanta, Brent Johnson is 1-0-2, 1.90, .934.

Once again, the opponent got a lot of clean looks at the net. Ottawa managed to get 72 percent of its 61 attempts on net (only three shots by forwards were blocked). The Caps managed to get 55 percent of its 49 attempts on net (10 shots by forwards were blocked).

We’ve noted that Viktor Kozlov has been a slow starter recently, but right now it’s a luxury the Caps can’t afford. It defies belief that a player who gets none other than top-line minutes has managed more than one shot on goal in only two of seven games he’s played. Last night, he had one once more.

That’s 11 games and counting for Nicklas Backstrom without an even-strength point.

Since scoring a power play goal against the Devils, Mike Green is 0-for-21 in shots on goal over six games. The Caps are 2-3-1 in those games, and the Caps’ power play is 3-for-24. Green was 0-for-two last night.

We still wonder about the status of Chris Clark. Clark, moved to the fourth line, logged only 7:58 in playing time. That isn’t the odd number. 0:00 is. That is the shorthanded time he had. Clark has logged a total of 1:11 in shorthanded ice time this year. He averaged 3:34 in 2005-2006 and 2:44 in 2006-2007. Just looking at the numbers, it seems the minutes Clark doesn’t get could be explained by David Steckel getting them (the latter playing only 12 games combined in those first two seasons after the lockout), but it still strikes us as a bit odd.

Any wonder why the Caps couldn’t solve Auld in the third period? Only two of six shots were taken from within 50 feet, only one within 25 feet.

One point is better than none, and the Caps are still hanging onto the periphery of the top-eight (they’re ninth this morning and only two points out of sixth). But it is not a team that looks as if it is playing with much urgency, and they are not creating anything in front of the opponent’s net. Four of the next five are at home, and all five have significant standings implications as they are against Eastern Conference teams, two of them against Southeast Division leader Carolina. It’s an opportunity. But if they play like they have the last two games, they might end up with four or five points and see it down the road as an opportunity lost.

The "Outstanding Six" -- Can the Caps Join the Party?

As we understand the workings of “The Plan” as it applies to the Washington Capitals, it includes three pieces – the same three pieces any other team might use, albeit in ways not employed by all teams (cough…”Lightning”) – draft, trades, and free agents.

The draft is the core of the exercise. You draft well, you draft deep, you draft the players around whom you want to build your team. They are “The Core.” For the Capitals, that would include Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin, for starters (you may quibble on the margins for additional players).

Trades and free agents are similar in that you’re acquiring components from other “brands.” Trades are generally cheaper than comparably skilled free agents (salary-wise), who can be obtained to fill any number of roles (scorer, checking forward, defensive defenseman) and can be high-end skill players or tightly defined role players. They are the “mortar” to be used around the “bricks” of the core that was drafted.

In focusing on the draft as the core of the enterprise, the object is not just to be competitive, but to sustain a competitive level of play. Some teams (cough…”Lightning”) appear to want to write checks to buy competitiveness in the short term, but in looking at the longer term prospects for such a team, they are iffy. They will have salary issues, and the league has a history of teams failing to achieve the expected level of success through the “acquisition” route (particularly with respect to free agents).

We took a look at each of the six divisions since the 1990-1991 season and selected one team from each that enjoyed some lean times before achieving success. There are some patterns to be found in them.

Atlantic Division – New Jersey Devils

"They're putting a Mickey-Mouse operation on the ice. It's ruining hockey."

-- Wayne Gretzky, after the Oilers clubbed the Devils 13-4, November 19, 1983.

And so they were – a “Mickey Mouse operation,” that is. Although they would reach the playoffs in five of the next ten seasons, they would not so much as reach 90 points in doing it. Their high water mark was 87 points reached in both the 1991-1992 and 1992-1993 seasons. In those two seasons, though, there was something brewing. They had a couple of mid-20-something forwards in Claude Lemieux and Stephane Richer, a 20-year old rookie (in the second of those seasons) in Bill Guerin, a mid-20’s defenseman of some skill by the name of “Stevens” (in his first two years in New Jersey), another defenseman in the early stages of his career by the name of “Niedermayer,” and a goalie who played only four games in that 1991-1992 season, but who would play a lot more later – Martin Brodeur.

In 1993-1994, the Devils took a big leap. They went 47-25-12, their 106 points being a 19-point improvement on the previous year – and went all the way to the Eastern Conference finals before losing to the eventual Stanley Cup champion New York Rangers. The Devils won it all the following year, with a club that had added a young Bobby Holik (obtained from Hartford), a young Brian Rolston, and veterans Neal Broten (from Minnesota) and Bob Carpenter (from Washington).

Since then, the Devils have averaged 102 points per season and have finished with less than 95 only once. They have been able to sustain their success through the personnel skills of GM Lou Lamoriello, who has plugged holes and changed parts adroitly. If there has been a “core” (as we defined it) for the Devils over the past dozen seasons since they first won a Stanley Cup, it might include Patrik Elias (drafted in 1994), Brodeur (drafted in 1990), Scott Niedermayer (drafted in 1991, left after the 2003-2004 season), and Sergei Brylin (drafted in 1992). Added to that later, there might be included such players as John Madden (undrafted free agent who has been with the club since 1998), Jay Pandolfo (drafted in 1993, still with the club), Brian Rafalski (another undrafted free agent who was with the Devils from 1999-2000 through 2007-2007), and Scott Gomez (drafted in 1998 and left after the 2006-2007 season).

The Devils managed to pick up in trade or via free agency a number of players to fill roles for shorter periods of time – an Alexander Mogilny or a Joe Nieuwendyk, a Viktor Kozlov or a Richard Matvichuk, for example, to play a year or two at a time.

The Devils might not announce a “build from within” philosophy, but they have employed one of sorts, with an eye toward filling the missing pieces via trade or free agency. Of course, it helps to have that Lamoriello guy in the front office, too.

Northeast Division – Ottawa Senators

Once upon a time, this team was bad. No…really, really bad. Ten wins and 24 points bad…in an 84-game season in 1992-1993 (the Caps had an 8-67-5 season…21 points in 80 games in 1973-1974). As late as 1996-1997, they were only a 77-point team, although they did make the playoffs in that year.

The following year – 1997-1998 – one could now see the good team they would become, even if they had only 83 points in that year. They made the playoffs (losing to Washington in the second round), and did it with a youthful core – Daniel Alfredsson (drafted in 1994, still with the club), Wade Redden (drafted by the Islanders in 1995, but never playing a game in that organization), Chris Phillips (drafted in 1996), Magnus Arvedson (drafted in 1997).

After the Senators dipped their toes into the water in the 1996-1997 and 1997-1998 seasons, they would reel off nine seasons over which they averaged 103 points a year and never achieved fewer than 94 points in any of them. They did it largely with that core (Arvedson left the Senators after the 2002-2003 season), but managed to add a Marian Hossa (drafted in 1997), a Martin Havlat (drafted in 1999, left after the 2005-2006 season), a Jason Spezza (drafted in 2001), a Chris Neil (drafted in 1998), a Mike Fisher (drafted in 1998), and an Anton Volchenkov (drafted in 2000).

To that, the Senators added their own pieces of the puzzle from other organizations…a Vaclav Varada, a Zdeno Chara, a Todd White, or a Dany Heatley.

Ottawa has been more dependent (or successful, if you prefer) than most clubs, even the Devils, with respect to the draft. But it has allowed them to build and keep a core group of players. They haven’t had to dip into trades or free agency a lot, but they have engaged in the practice with some success. However, it hasn’t allowed them to get that franchise goalie that they always seem to lack (ok, they had Dominik Hasek for a year).

Southeast Division – Tampa Bay Lightning

The history of teams in this division since Y2K won’t make the histories of NHL legendary teams. Tampa Bay is probably the best of the lot over the past half-dozen years, and their tale is instructive.

In their first ten seasons, the Lightning peeked above the 75-point level only once (88 points in 1995-1996, when they made their only playoff appearance in their first decade). But between 2001-2002 and 2002-2003, when they leaped from 69 to 93 points, the light went on. That 2001-2002 team had its own core of precocious home-grown under-25 kids – Brad Richards (drafted in 1998), Pavel Kubina (drafted in 1996), and Vincent Lecavalier (drafted in 1998). They’d already added players such as Fredrik Modin (from Toronto), Vaclav Prospal (from Florida), Dave Andreychuk (from Buffalo), and goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin (from Phoenix after he spent an entire year in the IHL in a contract dispute), and would add defenseman Dan Boyle (from Florida) midway through that 2001-2002 season. Martin St. Louis had already come over from Calgary in 2000-2001.

By the following season, they could make use of veterans added to their young core and make the leap to 93 points. A year after that they dipped into the veteran pool once more, adding Cory Stillman (from St. Louis) and Darryl Sydor (from Columbus). The pieces were sufficiently positioned to earn the Lightning a Stanley Cup.

The Lightning were not able to sustain their success as had New Jersey or Ottawa, in part because of contract deals that paid Lecavalier, Richards, and St. Louis handsomely, but left the club with little else to fill out a competitive roster. The house came crashing down last year when the Lightning sank to 71 points and 30th place in the league. But for four years, at least, the Lightning averaged 96 points and were a formidable squad, largely a product of the home-grown Lecavalier and Richards, and the pieces they added later (most notably Boyle, Prospal, and Khabibulin).

Central Division – Detroit Red Wings

These days, the defending Stanley Cup champion is looked at as the platinum standard for talent and management in the NHL. Such has not always been the case. In 1990-1991, the Wings were a 76-point team that ended a 17-year period in which they exceeded 80 points just once.

However, that 1990-1991 team had two home-grown players who would be essential to the Red Wings’ ascent to the highest tier of teams through the rest of the 1990’s and beyond – Steve Yzerman (drafted in 1983, but still only 25 years old that season) and Sergei Fedorov (drafted in 1989). They were the leading scorers on that team, with 108 and 79 points, respectively.

The following year, the Wings added two more players essential to their core – Nicklas Lidstrom and Vladimir Konstantinov on the blue line – both of whom were drafted in 1989 (that 1989 draft ranks as one of the great ones in terms of nailing the amateur evaluations for the Wings – five players played at least 630 NHL games, and Konstantinov certainly would have played far in excess of that had his career not been cut short after an auto accident). The Wings also added Vyacheslav Kozlov (drafted in 1990) for a cup of coffee with the club that year, and he would be a large player in future Wings’ success down the road.

For the Wings, the core was in place so that when it came to 1996-1997 (the year they would win their first Stanley Cup in 42 years), they could add a Brendan Shanhan (from Hartford early that season), Tomas Sandstrom (from Pittsburgh later that year), and Larry Murphy (from Toronto late in the year). It made for a formidable group and cemented the Wings as a perennial contender.

They would add pieces to their core in years to follow – a Tomas Holmstron (drafted in 1994), a Pavel Datsyuk (drafted in 1998), a Henrik Zetterberg (drafted in 1999). But they also would add players intelligently from other organizations to supplement that core – a Chris Chelios (from Chicago in 1998-1999), a Brett Hull (from Dallas in 2001-2002), Luc Robitaille (from Los Angeles, also in 2001-2002), a Robert Lang (from Washington in 2003-2004). It has made Detroit the embodiment of the phrase, “we don’t rebuild, we reload.”

Northwest Division – Colorado Avalanche

Maybe it’s the snow. It snows in Quebec; it snows in Denver. But while the Quebec Nordiques suffered some truly miserable seasons – in their last nine seasons in Canada, the Nordiques cleared 80 points just once -- they were rejuvenated in Denver, even though the seeds of success had already been planted.

That last team in Quebec in the 1994-1995 season included Joe Sakic up front (drafted in 1987) and Adam Foote on the blue line (drafted in 1989). There was Peter Forsberg (drafted by Philadelphia, but having never played a game in that organization, he being part of the consolation prize to Quebec when Eric Lindros was traded after declaring he would never play for the club that drafted him – Quebec). There was Adam Deadmarsh (drafted in 1993).

The following year, the now “Colorado Avalanche” were in a position to compete as the young guys had another year of experience. It didn’t hurt that there was a goaltender in Montreal with a festering relationship with his coach, one that would explode when he was left in to watch nine pucks fly by him before being pulled in a 12-1 loss in December 1995. Patrick Roy, who declared while leaving the bench in that game that he had played his last game in Montreal, became an Avalanche three days later.

But Roy, while the pivotal addition to the Avalanche from outside, wasn’t the only one to contribute. Mike Keane, who went with Roy to the Avalanche, was an important role player. Sandis Ozolinsh was added (from San Jose).

More players that would represent a core group were coming through the Colorado pipeline – Milan Hejduk (drafted in 1994), Chris Drury (also drafted in 1994), Alex Tanguay (drafted in 1998). But the Avalanche would add pieces to this puzzle as well that would culminate in a championship in 2001 – Rob Blake and Steve Reinprecht (from Los Angeles), and Ray Bourque (obtained in 1999-2000 from Boston).

Colorado has continued the theme, adding players fro within such as John-Michael Liles (drafted in 2000), Wojtek Wolski (drafted in 2004), and Paul Stastny (drafted in 2005). They’ve also added players from the outside to complement them, such as Ian Laperriere (from Los Angeles), Andrew Brunette (from Minnesota), and Ryan Smyth (from the Islanders).

The Avalanche has built and rebuilt a core, around which they have added veterans (for the most part) to keep themselves competitive.

Pacific Division – Dallas Stars

In their previous incarnation as the Minnesota North Stars, this franchise limped along on a path of mediocrity over their last decade in Minnesota, never better than 88 points, never worse than 51. The term “also ran” fit pretty well. But the last team in Minnesota had a glimmer of hope attached it in a couple of youngsters just cutting their teeth – 20-year old Derian Hatcher (drafted in 1990) and 22-year old Mike Modano (drafted in 1988). Modano would celebrate the move to Dallas the following year with a 50-goal season (still his career high) in leading the Stars (just “Stars”) to a 97-point season.

Trouble is, they hadn’t really “arrived” yet. They struggled for the next two seasons (with 42 points in the abbreviated 1994-1995 season, and 66 points the year after). But they were adding important pieces from within – Jamie Langenbrunner (drafted in 1993) and Jere Lehtinen (drafted in 1992), of greatest importance.

The Stars then also started to add other pieces, too, like Darryl Sydor (from Los Angeles) and Joe Nieuwendyk (from Calgary).

Adding a new coach – Ken Hitchcock – allowed the parts to work well as a whole, as the Stars improved by 38 points from 1995-1996 (66 points) to 1996-1997 (104 points). It started an 11-year (and counting) streak in which the Stars have averaged 104 points a season and have been below 97 points only once.

Dallas has not been quite as dependent on a “core,” perhaps, as the other teams mentioned here, but they have added assets from within over the years – Marty Turco (drafted in 1994), Brenden Morrow (drafted in 1997), Steve Ott (drafted in 2000), Jussi Jokinen (drafted in 2001), and Antti Miettinen (drafted in 2000).

Dallas has been successful in adding players – Philippe Boucher (from Los Angeles in 2002), Jason Arnott (from New Jersey in 2001, through 2006), Bill Guerin (from Boston in 2002, though 2006), and Stu Barnes (from Buffalo in 2002), for example.

All of these teams are perennial contenders. In the 60 seasons of hockey comprising the last ten seasons for each team, they have a combined 52 playoff teams (of the eight non-playoff teams, Tampa Bay has six of them). Five of the teams have won a total of eight Stanley Cups. The other – Ottawa – has appeared in a final.

There is the “Original Six,” and there is the “Outstanding Six” described here. It is the level of sustained competitiveness to which the Capitals aspire and are building a club for the long run. What one sees here is the outline of a pattern. A core of players is drafted, developed, and brought to the parent club. It is only after that when serious additions from outside are made, and generally to complement – not to replace – the roles that the core players occupy.

It is interesting to note as well that the big leap these clubs took in points that started them on the road to sustained competitiveness was often accompanied by a coaching change – Jacques Lemaire in New Jersey (when the Devils improved from 87 to 106 points from the 1992-1993 to the 1993-1994 season), John Tortorella (when Tampa Bay made a 34-point jump after two seasons under him), Bryan Murray (a 28 point leap in his first two years in Detroit), Ken Hitchcock (38 points in his first year in Dallas), Marc Crawford (a 28-point jump over his first two seasons with the Nordiques/Avalanche). There might be a “chicken and the egg” issue here – perhaps the ingredients were in place for the coach, perhaps the coach was needed to get the maximum from the ingredients – but there seems is a pattern in how these clubs got to where they are.

This has implications for the Capitals, who look to be a team wanting to operate in the same fashion. A core was built – Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom, and Semin. It is a group that struggled – not so much with their own play, but under the burdens of a team that did not enjoy much success in recent years. To this group, parts were added – Viktor Kozlov, Tom Poti, Michael Nylander. Other parts of what might constitute a growing core were added as well – Jeff Schultz, Tomas Fleischmann. Others might yet be on the way -- an Eric Fehr or a Karl Alzner. A coaching change was made, perhaps not heralded as salvation at the time, but ultimately a very successful one. As that success built upon itself, more pieces were added – Sergei Fedorov, Matt Cooke, Cristobal Huet – to fill distinct roles.

More success followed, and although the Caps could not manage to improve upon a first-round playoff appearance, they have the look of the Lightning of 2003 (without, one hopes, the contract problems), the Stars of 1997, or – be still our beating hearts – the Red Wings of 1992. All were teams on the rise with Stanley Cups in their futures; in the case of the Lightning and the Stars, the very near future – each won the Cup within two years after their first big leap in standings points.

This could, as they say, be the start of something big.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, January 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

When the Capitals visit Scotiabank Place to take on the Ottawa Senators, the thought that will come to mind is, “reversal of fortune.” When Ottawa slunk away after taking a 6-2 spanking from the Caps on December 6^th, they did so with a 15-13-1 record, and folks were asking, “what’s happened to Ottawa?”

Well, over the 18 games since, the Senators are 11-6-1, not to mention 9-1-1 in their last 11. Meanwhile, the Caps – for whom that Senator game might have been the high point of the season – are 7-10-1 since that win over Ottawa.

In most respects, the “before and after” that December 6^th game aren’t that remarkably different for the Senators:

Goals for…before: 3.48/after: 3.33
Goals against…before: 2.94/after: 2.79
Power play…before: 16.6%/after: 22.7%
Penalty kill…before: 84.8%/after: 80.7%

But over their last 11 games . . .

Goals for…4.27
Goals against…2.18
Power play…25.0%
Penalty kill…90.2%

And, their big guns have boomed to life over the last 11 games. Dany Heatley is 8-12-20, +16 (that is not a misprint…+16). Daniel Alfredsson is 8-12-20, +12 (that’s not a misprint, either). Both Heatley and Alfredsson are better than a point-per-game over the course of their respective careers against the Caps. Even Chris Kelly, who The Peerless wagers maybe one Cap fan in 50 has actually heard of, is 5-10-15, +11 over the last 11 games (nope, no misprint there). They’ve been explosive, too -- in seven periods of hockey in these last 11 games they’ve scored at least three goals. At the moment, it is the Ottawa offense with which fans have become accustomed.

But it isn’t as if Ottawa is doing it just by ramming the puck down opponents’ throats. With only 24 goals allowed in their last 11 games, they’ve been stingy, too. And consistent -- only once have they yielded more than three goals in a game in this run (they won), and they have two shutouts, both by Ray Emery, who is 7-1-1 in his last nine decisions, 2.21, .926.

If there is one Senator who has struggled – and continues to – it is Andrej Meszaros. Last year, as a rookie, Meszaros was 10-29-39, +34. He is 5-19-24, -11 this year, and even in this latest run of Ottawa success is only 1-4-5, +1.

The key here for the Caps is to avoid precisely the thing to which they are vulnerable – allowing goals in bunches. In 18 games since last meeting Ottawa, the Caps have had 14 games in which they’ve allowed at least one multiple-goal period. They are 3-11-1 in those games (two of the wins were against Philadelphia; we’ll leave it the reader as to whether they should count). That they would lose such a large percentage of such games is hardly surprising, but the large number of games in which it occurred suggests a defensive slump.

And, of course, there is the matter of scoring first. Since the last Ottawa game the Caps are 4-1-1 when scoring first, 3-9-0 when giving up the first goal.

All this merely serves to explain the obvious – the Caps can’t let Ottawa get off to a fast start, and if the home team does score first, the Caps have to find a way to stop the bleeding right away. Ottawa is in a groove that could spell serious trouble right out of the gate for the Caps.

But hey, there is a silver lining here, and it wears a number “1.” Brent Johnson -- likely to get this start -- is 3-0-0, 0.91, .972 in four games against the Senators over his career. The Caps could use that kind of performance to right their own ship and perhaps start a run of their own.

As you might imagine, it says here that this is precisely what will happen...

Caps 3 – Senators 2.