Washington Capitals 2022-2023 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“It is only through labor and painful effort, by grim energy and resolute courage, that we move on to better things.”
-- Theodore Roosevelt

It was back in 2005.  The NHL lost the 2004-2005 season to a lockout, and the draft was based on a lottery system.  We won’t get into that, only to say that this was the “Sidney Crosby” draft.  Who he would go to sucked all the oxygen out of the room in terms of coverage.  Once that question was answered, Caps fans attention turned to who the team would select.  When their turn came up, they selected Sasha Pokulok.  That was a surprise, to say the least, and as it turned out, not a pleasant one. Pokulok would be one of three players never to suit up for an NHL game.  After that pick, Caps fans might be forgiven for moving on to other things.  What they missed was the St. Louis Blues selecting a forward who played for the Sioux Falls Stampede in the USHL and Warroad High School Warriors – T.J. Oshie. 

As it turned out, while Crosby was (and remains) the class of that draft, Oshie might have been the biggest steal of that draft.  Taken with the 24^th pick, he ranks 13^th in his draft class in games played (900), fifth in goals (271), sixth in assists (364), fifth in points (635), third in plus-minus rating (plus-111), fifth in power play goals (83), sixth in power play points (192), fourth in shorthanded goals (nine) and points (18), sixth in overtime goals (four), sixth in game-winning goals (42), ninth in credited hits (1,357), 13^th in blocked shots (624), and second in takeaways (637).

But it has come at a price.  Oshie plays much larger than his size, fearless about mixing it up physically with players who are larger and unafraid to go into high traffic areas to make a play.  He has been among the most overachieving players of his generation, but he also appeared in 900 of 1,075 games on the schedule over his 14-year career (83.7 percent).  With the Caps he appeared in 457 of 535 scheduled games to date (85.4 percent).  Last season, he dressed for 44 of 82 games, missing 38 games to a variety of injuries – 10 games in November (lower body), six-games to start December (foot), a game at the end of December (COVID), three games in January (illness), 14 games in February (upper body), four games in March (lower body).  It held him to a scoring line of 11-14-25, minus-12.

Odd Oshie Fact… T.J. Oshie is the only player in Capital history born in the state of Washington.  He happens to be the all-time leader in NHL history in just about every meaningful career statistic among players born in Washington.  The only one he doesn’t lead is overtime goals.  His four career overtime goals trail the five posted by Tyler Johnson.

Fearless’ Take… It has been said different ways over his seven seasons with the Caps, but T.J. Oshie is the heart and soul of the Capitals.  They were 26-11-7 with him in the lineup, 18-15-5 in his absence.  They were 4-2-2 when he scored a goal, 12-3-4 when he recorded a point.  They were 15-8-1 when he was credited with at least two hits and, oddly enough, 6-1-2 in games in which he took a penalty.  That the Caps would be more successful with him in the lineup last season is not surprising.  Over his seven years with the Caps, the team averaged 1.35 standings points per game with him in the lineup (283-12-4-50) while averaging 1.26 standings points per game when he was out of the lineup (46-26-6). 

Cheerless’ Take… Whether a function of age, injuries, or both, last season had to rank as one of, it not the worst of Oshie’s career.  The 44 games were the fewest he played in a full 82 game season.  Ditto for goals (11), assists (14), and points (25).  His minus-12 rating was a career worst.  He had one game-winning goal, tying a career low.  His 17:27 in ice time per game is the second-lowest of his career and lowest as a Capital (16:35 in 2009-2009 as a rookie with St. Louis).  And ice time, while kind to him individually, was not kind to the Caps.  Oshie was 4-8-12 in the 15 games in which he skated at least 19 minutes, but he had a minus-2 rating in those games, and the Caps were just 6-4-5.  Meanwhile, the Caps did not lose a game in regulation when he skated 16:23 or less (12-0-1).

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2022-2023

• 300 career goals (he has 271)
• 500 games as a Capital (457)
• 200 penalty minutes as a Capital (199)
• 1,000 shots on goal as a Capital (914)

The Big Question… Have the years and his style of play made Oshie too susceptible to injury to be consistently productive?

T.J. Oshie will celebrate his 36^th birthday two days before Christmas.  For any player, reaching the far side of 35 years of age means that the seasons are dwindling to a precious few, and Oshie’s history of injury suggests that there is a higher probability that he will miss at least some games this season (he has never played a full 82-game schedule and only once appeared in all of his team’s games in a season, dressing for all 69 games for the Caps in 2019-2020).

Given the Caps’ injury situation at forward, keeping Oshie in the lineup will be a tricky management challenge for the coaching staff.  His style of play does not include timidity when it comes to aggressiveness and determination on his part.  What it could mean is that Oshie’s ice time will be managed closely.  As noted, the Caps did not fare all that well when he had heavier ice time burdens last season.  The difficulty here could be on the power play.  Both he and Tom Wilson are right-handed shots who are naturals to play the pivot in the 1-3-1 power play that the Caps use.  Although his rehabilitation from knee surgery is said to be ahead of schedule, Wilson could still be out of the lineup through at least November.  Will Oshie get more work in that spot, where he could be subject to more wear and tear?  Or can he get some relief in the form of Connor Brown, who is also a right-handed shot and who has had considerable power play experience, to assume responsibilities in that area. 

In the end…

The Capitals are better with Oshie in the lineup that when he is not, as long as his ice time is in a manageable range.  That seems to be the recent experience, at least.  And while his numbers might not be quite what they were even just a few seasons ago, he seems to have that intangible quality to make his teammates better by having them feed off his energy.  Oshie is the rare breed of player who is productive and who, by force of will, resolve, and example, seems to make his teammates better.  The Capitals certainly need that combination of talents this season, the question being whether Oshie will be in the lineup often enough to exhibit those qualities.

Projection: 68 games, 17-18-35, plus-1

Washington Capitals: 2021--2022 By the Tens -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

"If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader."
-- John Quincy Adams

Since T.J. Oshie arrived in Washington from the St. Louis Blues in a trade for Troy Brouwer, Pheonix Copley, and a third-round draft pick in July 2015, he has been a winner.  Oshie has plyed n 457 of 535 regular season games, the Caps posting a 283-124-50 record, a .674 winning percentage.  In the 78 games he missed, the Caps were 46-26-6, a .629 wining percentage.  On an 82-game basis, it is the difference between a 51-22-9 record (111 points) and a 48-27-7 record (103 points).  It might not look like a lot, but it can be the difference between a top seed with home ice advantage in the playoffs and a struggle to merely reach the postseason.

Fearless’ Take… Over those 457 games Oshie has played for the Caps, only Alex Ovechkin has more goals per game (0.59 to 0.35) among players appearing in at least 100 games over that span, and Oshie ranks fifth in points per game, fourth among forwards (0.71).  This season, the difference in Capitals success was even more pronounced with Oshie in the lineup.  The Caps averaged 1.34 standings points per game when he was in the lineup (26-11-7), 1.08 points per game when he was not (18-15-5).  Washington was 12-3-4 when he posted at least one point this season.  Among Caps appearing in at least 20 games, he was fifth in credited hits per 60 minutes, his 6.72 hits/60 being most of his career. 

Cheerless’ Take… There is a flip side to some of those number, cuz.  Take points.  Sure, the Caps were successful when he posted points, but he didn’t do it all that often.  His 0.57 points per game was a career low.  About hits… the Caps were 15-8-1 when he recorded at least two, but they were also 11-3-6 when he was credited with fewer than two.  His minus-10 goal differential at even strength was the worst of his career, and in only 44 games. A critical element of the power play, he averaged only 8.2 shots per 60 minutes with the man-advantage, third lowest of his career and lowest as a Capital.  His 49.0 shot attempts-for on-ice at 5-on-5 was the lowest of his career.  His numbers were an odd counterpoint to the success the Caps had when he played.

Odd Oshie Fact… In seven seasons with the St. Louis Blues, Oshie never posted a shooting percentage over 14 percent.  In seven seasons with the Caps, he has never been under 14 percent.

Odd Oshie Fact II… When Oshie recorded a hat trick against the Ottawa Senators in a 7-5 win on October 25^th, it was his third hat trick in the regular season for the Caps.  All of them have been on the road (March 18, 2017 at Tampa Bay and May 5, 2021 at the New York Rangers being the others).

Odd Oshie Fact III… Despite being a winger, Oshie was often called upon to take faceoffs. He took 169 draws in 44 games this season.  In 14 games in which he was over 50 percent in faceoff wins, the Caps were 10-3-1.

Game to Remember… October 25^th at Ottawa.  The Caps started their season with points in five straight games, going 3-0-2 before heading to Ottawa for a matchup with the Senators.  Oshie had a modest start, posting a goal and an assist in the seasons’ first five games.  The game against Ottawa would be more productive.  After the Senators opened the scoring less than three minutes into the contest, Oshie got the Caps even in the seventh minute when the Caps took advantage of a turnover by the Senators deep in their own zone.  Trevor van Riemsdyk gobbled up the loose puck and fed Oshie darting to the net out of the corner to the right of goalie Anton Forsberg.  Oshie snapped a shot past Forsberg on the far side, and the Caps were tied.  Less than five minutes later, it was Oshie again, giving the Caps the lead, Anthony Mantha and Connor McMichael getting the assists, McMichael recording his first NHL point.  The Caps chased Forsberg with two more first period goals to take a 4-1 lead to the first intermission, but the Senators stormed back to start the second with three goals in less than seven minutes to tie the game, 4-4.  Alex Ovechkin put the Caps back in front with a goal late in the period, and Oshie then completed the hat trick with 7.3 seconds left in the period when he took a feed from McMichael behind the Ottawa net, circled out, and tucked the biscuit under the left leg pad of relief goalie Filip Gustavsson.  It would prove to be the game-winning goal in the Caps’ 7-5 win and Oshie’s only game-winner of the season.

Game to Forget… January 15^th at New York Islanders.  Oshie has had a career’s worth of success against the Islanders, going 15-16-31, plus-11, in 38 career games against the Isles.  That 38^th career game was not among his most successful.  Oshie skated only two shifts and 1:46 in ice time when he suffered an upper body injury.  The Caps would win this game, 2-0, but Oshie would go on to miss 14 games, the Caps going 7-7-0 in that stretch.

Postseason… Oshie had a productive series for the Caps in their loss to Florida in the first round.  He led the team with six goals, four more than any other Capital and almost a third of the team’s total (19).  He finished with a plus-2 rating, tied for second best on the team, and a plus-2 goal differential at even strength fueled by being on ice for a second-best five even strength goals.  He was credited with 24 hits, fourth on the team and third among forwards, and he led the team in shots on goal (22).  There were a couple of bad numbers that stood out, though, one of them being his two takeaways while recording 11 giveaways, most on the team.  He also had a 38.6 percent shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5, worst on the team in the series for players appearing in more than one game.

Looking Ahead… It is hard to look forward without looking back on Oshie. In seven years with the Caps, he has missed 78 regular season games.  It is perhaps the price a player pays for playing a rough and tumble style that might be more appropriate for a bigger player.  So, the question becomes whether Oshie, who will turn 36 years of age in December, can flourish and remain healthy playing the way he does going forward. 

In the End…

Oshie is something of an unusual case, the team performing well when he is in the lineup even when his numbers suggest a lesser outcome at times.  He does seem to have an intangible quality that lifts the game of teammates.  For 2022-2023, Oshie will carry a $5.75 million cap hit that will extend for an additional two seasons with a modified no-trade clause (he can submit a ten-team no trade list).  It makes it important for the Caps that he maintain his health for economic as well as performance considerations.  It will be a matter that bears watching as the new season begins in October.

Grade: B+

Washington Capitals 2021-2022 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“There's a lot of blood, sweat, and guts between dreams and success.”
-- Paul “Bear” Bryant

If T.J. Oshie is not part of the “core” of the Washington Capitals roster, he is a cornerstone, an element that serves as a reference point for the structure.  He has been a fixture at right wing, either on the top line or second line, since his arrival from The St. Louis Blues in 2015, in a deal that seemed rather balanced at the time, an exchange of similar right wings, Oshie coming to Washington for Troy Brouwer (with goalie Pheonix Copley, and a draft pick).  But where Brouwer went 50-58-108, minus-21, in 320 games with three teams over five seasons after leaving Washington, Oshie went 128-129-257, plus-55, in 360 games over those same five seasons before adding a 22-21-43, minus-3 scoring line last season (Brouwer did not play in the NHL last season).

Odd Oshie Fact… As noted, T.J. Oshie came to Washington in a trade with St. Louis for Troy Brouwer, Pheonix Copley and a draft pick.  Copley eventually returned to Washington in a trade (with Kevin Shattenkirk) with the Blues, and the draft pick eventually made its way back to Washington, the Capitals selecting Garrett Pilon in the third round of the 2016 Entry Draft.

Odd Oshie Fact II… In six seasons in Washington, Oshie has 150 goals and 150 assists).

Fearless’ Take… T.J. Oshie has become both a prolific producer on offense and a consistent one.  Only once in his six seasons in Washington has he averaged fewer than one goal per 60 minutes over a season (0.8 in 2017-2018), and he averaged at least one assist per 60 minutes in each of his six seasons with the Caps.  In gross terms, only twice in six seasons did he finish with fewer than 25 goals, and one of those was in last year’s abbreviated season (22 in 53 games, a 34-goal pace over 82 games).  Oshie is also one of five players in Caps history to have appeared in fewer than 450 games with the team and post a rating of plus-50 or better (Alan Haworth, Eric Fehr, Jeff Schultz, and Matt Niskanen are the others. 

Cheerless’ Take… Oshie will be 35 years old in December.  He plays bigger than a player of his size.  He can’t keep this up forever.  He’s going to start missing games (he has missed 40 of 453 games in six seasons).  His contract is going to be a liability (he has completed four years of an eight-year deal).  Don’t we do this every year with Oshie?  He could start to break down, or his production could just wane naturally (like the use of “wane” there, cuz?).  But he just keeps plugging.  The thing is though, the Caps cannot afford this season being that turning point in his production or durability.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021…

• 900 career NHL games (currently 856)
• 200 career power play points (182)
• 100 power play points with the Caps (91)
• With 32 goals, Oshie would jump into 11^th place in goal scoring in Caps history, passing Kelly Miller (162), Michal Pivonka (181), and Dale Hunter (181)

The Big Question… Will T.J. Oshie post a career-high in goals in 2021-2022?

In the last three seasons, Oshie has averaged 29.7, 30.9, and 34.0 goals per 82 games.  He posted a career-high 33 goals in 2016-2017.  He has been a remarkably efficient shooter, posting a 17.9 percent shooting percentage in six years with the Caps, second among 467 skaters appearing in at least 250 games over that period (Paul Byron leads with 18.0 percent).  You would think that goal scoring would be more impactful (the Caps were 10-5-2 in games in which Oshie scored a goal last season; 15-5-2 the previous season), but that goal scoring could become an important factor if the Caps do not get consistent production elsewhere in their top six (Anthony Mantha, we’re looking at you).

In the end…

Chances are that T.J. Oshie is not regarded with the same respect outside of Capitals Nation that, say, an Alex Ovechkin or Nicklas Backstrom command.  In the Caps community, however, Oshie has to be considered among the biggest fan favorites.  This is not a “Mr. Congenialty” award, either.  Hockey fans appreciate hockey players, with all the attributes that term implies – productive on the ice, durable, dependable, clutch, a “stand-up” player who will go into the tough areas to produce, a player who leads by example, and a generally good guy who is a positive influence in the community off the ice.  Oshie has been that for six seasons in Washington, and even though predictions of his imminent diminishing of his production has become something of a perennial concern, he has toughed his way through that, and until it happens, it makes little sense it will come true this season.

Projection: 78 games, 31-25-56, plus-1