Washington Capitals: 2018-2019 By the Tens -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“Suspense is worse than disappointment.”

-- Robert Burns

 

 

Ten months ago, we closed our look back at Andre Burakovsky’s season with this question: “does he take the next step to being a productive top-six quality forward, or will he continue to exhibit the injury tendencies and inconsistencies of the last three seasons?”  After a third straight season posting 12 goals and a second straight season of 25 points, we have our answer, and it is not one that Caps fans would have preferred.  

Despite the fact that Burakovsky is still just 24 years old and will not turn 25 until next February, he finished the 2018-2019 season with 328 regular season and another 56 postseason games on his resume.  One would think – or at least hope – that a player with this much experience on his resume was displaying the game one would expect to see in his prime.  If that is true for Burakovsky, it is something of a disappointment, if this is his prime performance level.  But here is the frightening part of coming to that conclusion at this point in his career.  Let’s consider three players over their first five seasons up to their 24 year old season:

Burakovsky:  23^rd overall draft pick (2013), 62 goals, 83 assists, 145 points, 4183 minutes ice time

Player B: 7^th overall draft pick (2011), 58 goals, 87 assists, 145 points, 3995 minutes ice time

Player C: 6^th overall draft pick (2006), 51 goals, 100 assists, 151 points, 4250 minutes ice time

Player B is Mark Scheifele, who blossomed into a 29-goal scorer in that fifth season of his career and thereafter has been a point per game player for the Winnipeg Jets.  Player C is Derick Brassard, who does have a 60-point season and two 20-goal seasons, but who is now on his sixth NHL team in 12 seasons and fourth in his last two seasons.  One is a bona fide NHL star, while the other has always seemed to be more potential than performance despite decent mid-career numbers.

Burakovsky meandered his way to an unimpressive set of numbers over his first five ten-game segments, going 6-6-12, minus-5, covering a total of 44 games out of the 50 on the schedule to that point that brought the Caps to the All-Star Game break.  After that, and here is where Burakovsky’s propensity to tease emerged once more, he was 6-7-13, plus-7, in his last 32 games over the last three segments, despite averaging almost a minute less per game over this stretch (10:43) than the previous one (11:25).  He did, however, close the regular season and open the postseason once more with a lot of zeroes on his score sheet.  After posting goals in three straight games in early March, he went his last 14 games of the regular season and first five games of the postseason with one goal and one assist with an “even” plus-minus rating.

Fearless’ Take… For all his disappointments in light of his potential, Andre Burakovsky is rather accomplished for this franchise at this point in his career.  Among 78 players who played in at least 100 games by their 24-year old season for the Caps, he is ninth in games played (328), tied for 15^th in career goals (62, with Michal Pivonka), 12^th in even strength goals (55), 23^th in assists (83), 20^th in points (145), and sixth in game-winning goals (13).  Even in 2018-2019 he was important for results, even if you wish he did it more often.  The Caps were 9-2-1 in the 12 games in which he had a goal, 15-3-4 in the 22 games in which he had a point. 

Cheerless’ Take… There was an odd lack of engagement by Burakovsky in a physical sense this season.  He is not generally known as a physical player, but only eight times this season did he record a hit and a blocked shot in the same game.  Not that it mattered a lot, since the Caps were just 4-3-1 in those games.  And there was the odd lack of team results even when he was engaged.  In 41 games this season, Burakovsky was one ice for at least ten shot attempts at 5-on-5.  Only 22 times in those games did the Caps win.  He just was not consistently able to translate action into results.

Odd Burakovsky Fact… Of 20 players with at least 50 goals scored for the Caps since 2005-2006, Burakovsky has the second-best percentage of game-winning goals to total goals (21.0 percent), trailing only Jay Beagle (23.5 percent).

Game to Remember… December 6^th at Arizona

The Caps were in the midst of a three-game road trip in early December, having lost the first game of that trip and with losses in consecutive games for the first time in a month when they took the ice in Arizona.  The Caps found themselves chasing the game, allowing the game’s first goal and allowing another barely a minute after they tied the game early in the second period.  Matt Niskanen  got the Caps even late in the second period, and the teams fought to a draw with no goals scored in the first 15 minutes of the third period.  In the 16^th minute, Niskanen fired a long cross-ice diagonal pass from his own end to Burakovsky crossing the red line.  Skating into the Coyotes’ end, Burakovsky got to the top of the left wing circle and unleashed a shot under the stick of defenseman Kevin Connauton and past the blocker of goalie Adin Hill on the short side to make it a 3-2 game, 15:18 into the period.  Alex Ovechkin potted an empty netter late, but for Burakovsky, subbing for an injured Tom Wilson on the top line, his was the game-winning goal, welcome in ending a two-game losing streak and lighting the match to what would be a five-game winning streak.

Game to Forget…  February 3^rd vs. Boston

A lot of Capitals might like to forget this game in early February.  The Caps went into it with a 14-game winning streak against the Bruins.  There would not be a 15^th.  Tuukka Rask, whose career numbers against the Caps going into this game would frighten Stephen King, pitched a 1-0 shutout to become the all-time leader in wins by a goalie in Bruin history.  For his part, Burakovsky did not record a shot attempt while skating on the fourth line, hitting the ice for only ten shifts and 7:18 of ice time, none of which came in the last 13 minutes of the game with the Caps trying to chase down the tying goal.

Postseason… If the Caps had anything at all from Burakovsky early in the series against Carolina, the series might not have gone seven games.  As it was, though, he did not record a point in Games 1-5, was minus-4, and had only one shot on goal over those games.  Only once in those five games did he skate more than 10 minutes, logging 14:08 in a 2-1 loss in Game 4.  He did bounce back somewhat in Games 6 and 7 with an assist in the former and a goal in the latter, but it was not nearly enough.  Going back to last spring’s Stanley Cup final, he is 1-2-3, minus-3, in his last ten postseason games with only nine shots on goal, three of those coming in the double-overtime loss to Carolina in Game 7 in the first round that ended the Caps’ season.

Looking forward…

After completing his entry level contract at three years and $2.775 million, followed by his extension for two years at $3.0 million per year on a bridge contract, Andre Burakovsky finds himself an arbitration-eligible free agent.  To retain negotiating rights, the Caps would have to qualify him at $3.25 million.  That is a lot to pay a player who averaged barely 11 minutes per game this season, was at times a fourth liner and others a healthy scratch, and who was largely silent in the latter part of the regular season and playoffs.  Given that the Caps have the renewals of Carl Hagelin, Brett Connolly, Christian Djoos, and Jakub Vrana, among others, on their plate, Burakovsky might be at a crossroads of his career. 

In the end…

Burakovsky does not have the enigmatic quality of Alexander Semin, a highly skilled player whose frustrating tenure as a Capital preceded Burakovsky’s by a decade.  Nevertheless, Burakovsky’s career in Washington has been a head-scratcher.  He has displayed a variety of talents – speed, skating ability in tight places, good hands, a wicked shot – but it has not been displayed either frequently or consistently enough.  More often, he has simply disappeared too often from games altogether.  A player of his skill should not have had 21 games this season without a shot on goal, although getting fourth line minutes for much of the year will do that.  It seems as likely as not that Burakovsky will be playing in another city next season.  Retaining him is among the hardest decisions the Caps will make this off-season.  It is hard for a team to let a 24-year old with his skill set go, and how the Caps deal with that decision will be an important story line this off-season. 

Grade: C-

Washington Capitals 2018-2019 Previews -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“My only fault is that I don't realize how great I really am.”

-- Muhammad Ali

There was only one Muhammad Ali, but not knowing how great – or how good – one is or can be is not an uncommon affliction in any walk of life.  Andre Burakovsky’s ascent to the NHL was quick and, frankly, surprising, given that he went right from Canadian juniors to the Caps’ Opening Night lineup in 2014-2015.  Since then, he has been chasing his own potential.  The TSN (Canada) scouting report describes him as “Blessed with great speed, he also displays great hands and goal-scoring instincts. Also has an NHL-sized frame with with plenty of projection. Is definitely a game-breaking talent.”  From time to time he has displayed those gifts, but in four seasons he topped a dozen goals once (17 in 2015-2016) and doesn’t have a season with more than 23 assists (in 2016-2017).

Last season might have been the most disappointing one for Burakovsky.  He appeared in just 56 games (continuing a disturbing trend of playing in a decreasing number of games over the past three seasons), posting 12 goals and 13 assists.  He could never seem to get much traction scoring-wise.  He had no streaks of more than two games with points at any time last season.  He did show some spark late, going 3-3-6 in his last eight games, but he had points in only 18 of 56 games last season.

You might say that Burakovsky’s play has reflected a consistent inconsistency in one respect.  Over his four-year career he has not been able to put together long stretches of production, but on a season-by-season basis, he has hovered consistently around the 0.20 goals per game mark (a range of 0.17 to 0.21 over the four seasons and a 16 goals per 82 games pace).  Absent the absences, it is not unreasonable to think he could bump that number up a bit.  Still, frustration with his production aside, Burakovsky (drafted 23^rd overall in 2013) is sixth in his draft class in goals scored (50, tops in his class among wingers) and 11^th in points.  Only Alexander Barkov (plus-33) and Andrew Copp (plus-35) have a better plus-minus than Burakovsky (plus-32).

Odd Burakovsky Fact…

Burakovsky did have an interesting sense of timing last season.  He had five game-winning goals, more than his combined total over his first three seasons (four).  No Capital in 2017-2018 had a higher share of total goals be game-winners than Burakovsky. 

Fearless’ Take…

Andre Burakovsky has done something in his first four seasons that Alex Ovechkin did not do.  Burakovsky is one of seven players in team history to have at least 50 goals, at least 70 assists, and record a plus-minus of plus-30 or better (50-70-120, plus-32).  Ovechkin would have made eight, but he was a plus-19 over his first four seasons (yes, Ovechkin played on worse teams).  And, there are hints he might be a go-to postseason performer.  There were those two goals in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference final against the Tampa Bay Lightning, but that is part of a longer stretch in which he is 5-5-10, plus-7, over his last 16 postseason games, dating back to the second round of the 2017 playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Cheerless’ Take…

Andre Burakovsky doesn’t like home cooking.  He goes into this season having played 126 games at home and 126 games on the road.  In those 126 road games he has 31 goals, but he has just 19 goals in his 126 games on home ice.  Last season, he did not get his first goal on home ice until January 31^st (his 13^th home game of the season), and only four of his 12 goals were at Capital One Arena (26 games).

Potential Milestones:

• Top-50 in franchise history in goals scored (Burakovsky needs 10 to tie Chris Clark and Tomas Fleischmann for 50^th place).
• Top-50 in franchise history in assists (he needs 27 to tie Dino Ciccarelli, assuming Dmitry Orlov who needs three to tie Ciccarelli, gets there first).
• Top-50 in franchise history in points (he needs 32 to tie Troy Brouwer).
• 50 even strength goals (he needs six)

The Big Question… Is this the year Andre Burakovsky puts it all together?

Andre Burakovsky’s performance numbers – goals, assists, points – have been a bit disappointing, an unfortunate product of inconsistency and injury.  But one area in which he has been consistent is productivity in his personal possession numbers.  In each of his four seasons, shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 has been above 50 percent when he was on the ice.  His 53.25 percent Corsi-for over his four years with the Caps ranks 52^nd among 312 forwards skating at least 2,000 5-on-5 minutes, and his Relative Corsi-for of +3.45 ranks 43^rd, between David Pastrnak and Blake Wheeler (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

That his efficiency number outperformed his performance numbers, and consistently at that, argues for a wait-and-see attitude toward Burakovsky.  There is also the matter of the way injuries have impeded his development and consistency.  Three times in his career to date he has had absences of more than 10 days to injury. 

The first was a 37-day absence from February 9 to March 18, 2017 due to a hand injury.  In the 13 full games in which he played right before that (not including the game in which he sustained the injury), he was 6-8-14, plus-13.  He was out for 44 days early from late October to early December last season with a broken thumb, and he was just 1-3-4, minus-2 in the nine games to open the season that preceded his absence.  However, in the eight games to wrap up the regular season he was 3-3-6, plus-10, and then in Game 2 of the first round playoff series against Columbus, he suffered an upper body injury that caused him to miss 25 days.  Just when he seemed to be establishing some offensive momentum, he had it stopped by injury.

In the end…

Andre Burakovsky might be the biggest unknown coming into the 2018-2019 season, an odd thing to contemplate on a roster in which almost everyone is returning from last season.  He has shown his considerable offensive gifts, although all too often in short stretches.  Part of that is consistency.  He had four streaks of four or more games without a point last season, including streaks of seven and eight games.  That is a lot of quiet time in a season in which he appeared in just 56 games.  But one wonders if that is the product of youth (he will not turn 24 until February), injury, or the absence of (for lack of a better term) the “hockey IQ” needed to be a more consistent contributor.

Burakovsky is a tantalizing talent.  He certainly has the talent to be a regular top-six forward on a contender.  One wonders what his numbers might look like if he was to dress for 70 or more games (his career high is 79 games in 2015-2016).  We would be closer to realizing how good – or how great – Andre Burakovsky could be.

Projection: 69 games, 18-24-42, plus-5

Photo:  Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2017-2018 By the Tens -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“Adopt the pace of nature: her secret is patience.”

-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

Andre Burakovsky scored a goal in his first game, in his fourth shift as a Washington Capital in the home opener to the 2014-2014 season.  In retrospect, it was perhaps not the best thing that might have happened to him.  The 23^rd overall pick of the 2013 entry draft, he bypassed the AHL and went from Canadian junior hockey to the NHL at the age of 19.  When he scored that goal in the 2014-2015 season opener, he became the fourth-youngest Capital to score a goal in the NHL in more than 25 years (only Connor Carrick, Tom Wilson, and Jan Bulis scored goals when younger than Burakovsky).

Since then, Burakovsky has been equal parts frustration and enigma.  The frustrating part is what has become a persistent propensity for injuries.  He missed 15 games of the 2016-2017 season to a hand injury, missed another 20 games to a broken thumb this past season, and then he missed ten games of the postseason this year to an upper body injury.

The enigma part is his not being immune from the healthy scratch due to inconsistent play.  This season was no exception to the inconsistent play issue.  He had one goal in his first 14 games. He had an eight-game streak without a point in games straddling the old and new year of the season.  He had one goal in a 14-game stretch over a month from late-February to late-March. 

What it meant for Burakovsky in the 2017-2018 season is another drop in his top end numbers over his last three seasons.  Two years ago, he had 17 goals in 79 games.  Last season it was 12 goals in 64 games.  This season it was 12 goals in only 56 games.  The points exhibited similar declines, from 38 two years ago to 35 last season to 25 this season.  This came despite increases in ice time.  He averaged 13:01 in 79 games two years ago, 13:16 in 64 games last season, and he averaged 13:50 in 56 games this season.

His injuries in in 2017-2018 season make it hard to evaluate his ten-game segments.  For example, he appeared in only one game in the second and third segments, combined (Game 30).  However, he did miss only one game in the last three segments, and he did show some improvement from segment to segment in points recorded.  The number that stands out, though, is that plus-10 in his last segment (covering 12 games).  That and his recording four of his five game-winning goals for the season. 

Fearless’ Take… Getting and keeping Burakovsky in the lineup matters.  He provided the kind of bridge scoring that supports success.  The Caps were 9-1-1 in games in which he recorded a goal and 14-2-2 in games in which he recorded a point.  It wasn’t much different from his 2016-2017 numbers – 7-1-3 when he scored a goal, 21-2-3 when he scored a point.  When he is on his game, he is a potent offensive weapon.

Cheerless’ Take… Yeah, well, about that.  He’d better be contributing offense, because if he isn’t then there doesn’t seem to be a lot there.  Oh, sure, the numbers folks love his possession numbers, but here’s the thing.  Of the 56 games he played this season, his on-ice shot attempts-for percentage at 5—on-5 was 50 percent or better in 37 games.  The Caps were 19-14-4 in those games.  Is he sacrificing outcomes (goals/points) for outputs (shot attempt numbers)?  That might not be the way to frame tine issue, but there does seem to be a disconnect there.

Odd Burakovsky Fact… Andre Burakovsky ranks third on the all-time list of Austrian-born players in career points.  He has a way to go to get to second place. 

Game to Remember… December 19^th at Dallas

The Stars have never been especially hospitable to the Caps, whether in their first incarnation in Minnesota as the North Stars, or in Dallas in their current incarnation.  Going into this season the Caps had a lifetime record of 14-26, with eight ties, against the Stars.  This year, however, the Caps were on a run when they descended on Dallas, taking a record of 10-2-0 in their previous dozen games into the December 19 contest against the Stars.  Andre Burakovsky did not have a lot of experience against the Stars, but what he had was rather good: 1-4-5, plus-3, in five games.

Burakovsky opened the scoring, finishing a 3-on-2 rush, taking a cross-ice feed from Brett Connolly and beating goaltender Ben Bishop on the long side at the 10:55 mark.  Dallas would come back to take the lead and then take it again when the Caps tied the game on a second period goal from Dmitry Orlov.  Late in the third period, though, Burakovsky returned the favor to Connolly, sending a pass out from the corner to Connolly easing down the slot.  Connolly’s one-timer beat Bishop with just 3:26 left in regulation. 

That sent the teams to overtime.  With the teams playing 3-on-3, Burakovsky sent a pass from the right point to John Carlson on the left point.  Circling to the top of the zone, Carlson dropped the puck to Burakovsky circling behind him in the opposite direction.  He went wide of Jason Spezza trying to close off the middle, and before Esa Lindell could move across to get into his path, Burakovsky unleashed a shot that beat Bishop cleanly on the far side, and the Caps had a 4-3 overtime win to extend their winning streak to a season-tying high (to that point) of four games.  For Burakovsky, it was his only two-goal game of the season and his only three-point contest of the season, despite skating just 13:18 in ice time.

Game to Forget… December 27^th at New York Rangers

The first game after Christmas was a frustrating one for the Caps, as a team and individually.  The Caps might have thought they were getting a night off, since they would face backup goalie Ondrej Pavelec instead of Henrik Lundqvist.  For Pavelec it was his first work in more than two weeks, but the time off did not seem to affect him.  He stopped all 30 shots he faced in regulation and overtime, through which the teams remained scoreless.  In the Gimmick he stopped T.J. Oshie and Alex Ovechkin while Mats Zuccarello and Mika Zibanejad beat Philipp Grubauer to give the Rangers a 1-0 win.  For Burakovsky, it was a lost evening, more or less.  He skated a team-low 8:28 (also a team-low 39 seconds per shift) and had one shot on goal.

Postseason… Andre Burakovsky had yet to make a mark in the postseason in three tries, going 6-4-10, plus-6, in 36 games, and 2018 was little different, but for different reasons.  In Game 2 of the opening round series against Columbus, he took a check from Boone Jenner and suffered an upper body injury in the exchange.  He left having skated just five shifts and 2:12 in ice time.  He would not return to the ice until Game 1 of the conference final against Tampa Bay.  He did not record a point in the first four games of the series and sat for Game 5. Burakovsky returned for Game 6 but skated just nine shifts and 7:31 in ice time, both team lows. 

If Burakovsky was saving it up for something, he cashed it in for Game 7 against the Lightning.  With the Caps holding a 1-0 lead in the second period in Tampa, he scored goals less than eight minutes apart to turn a nail-biter into a more comfortable lead.  The Caps won, 4-0, to reach the Stanley Cup final for the second time in franchise history.  The finals did not feature any Burakovsky goals, but he did have four assists in five games in the Caps’ Cup-clinching series against the Vegas Golden Knights.

In the end…

One gets the feeling that if Andre Burakovsky could remain healthy for a full season, he might eventually figure the rest of his game out and be a foundational component of this team.  It is also important to keep in mind that he will not turn 24 years of age until next February.  And, looking at his overall numbers in four years, he is averaging 16-23-39, plus-10 per 82 games, which is decent production for largely third line responsibilities and averaging 13 minutes and change in ice time.  This argues for patience.

On the other hand, his numbers, both in terms of games played and production, have dropped over the last three seasons, and he still seems prone to being largely invisible over chunks of the schedule.  In that sense, given that he has more than 250 regular season and 49 games of postseason experience, he needs to step up his game.  As he enters the last year on his current contract (he will be a restricted free agent after the 2018-2019 season) his career is coming up to a crossroads – does he take the next step to being a productive top-six quality forward, or will he continue to exhibit the injury tendencies and inconsistencies of the last three seasons?

Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2017-2018 Previews -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“Discontent is the first necessity of progress.”

-- Thomas A. Edison

When Andre Burakovsky almost doubled his goal production between his rookie and sophomore seasons (from nine to 17 goals), increased his assist total by more than 50 percent (from 13 to 21), pumped his point total from 22 to 38, and dressed for all but three games (53 in his rookie season), fans might have been eager at the prospect of seeing Burakovsky making another big leap forward in his third season, in 2016-2017.

He didn’t.  Not that he took a step backward as much as he took a step sideways.  On a per-game basis his goals were a bit off (from 0.22 to 0.19), while his total points were a bit higher (from 0.48 to 0.55), but his shooting percentage took a noticeable dip (from 13.5 to 10.8), and his even strength goal production dropped by almost half (from 17 to 10).  There was also the chunk of 15 game missed to a hand injury from early February to mid-March.  And, if you take out a six-game stretch in January in which he went 4-6-10, Burakovsky’s year bordered on the disappointing in terms of progress.

Underlying the production, Burakovsky was a good – even very good – possession performer.  His 55.27 percent shots attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 led all Caps forwards in the regular season.  In fact, this has been a constant, if the term could apply in what is just a three-year career, with him.  The 55.27 percent mark was his best so far, topping the 54.56 percent he posted in his rookie year of 2014-2015.

Burakovsky rehabilitated himself somewhat in last spring’s postseason, finishing with three goals (all against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round) and six points in 13 games.  The production doubled his career postseason goal total (from three to six) and more than doubled his career point total (from four to ten).

Odd Burakovsky Fact… One gets the feeling Andre Burakovsky’s annual New Year’s resolution is “score more.”  His career scoring line for January is 13-16-29, plus-17, in 35 games.  He does not have more than nine goals in any other month (February) and no more than 17 points in any other month (October).

Fearless’ Take…

Although Burakovsky was taken with the 23^rd overall pick in the 2013 entry draft, he is eighth among forwards drafted in games played (196), fifth in goals scored (38, and the top pure winger), seventh in points (95), and tops in plus-minus (plus-29).  He also gives early evidence of being able to grow into a Penguin Killer, at least in the regular season.  He has appeared in more games against the Pens than he has against any other team (12), but accompanying that is his best scoring line against any team (5-4-9, plus-1; he does not have more than seven points against any other team (Columbus)).

Cheerless’ Take…

He is not yet a good finisher, as far as the calendar is concerned.  Sure, he has that nice 13-16-29, plus 17 in 35 January games, but in 67 career games in February, March, and April, he is 14-14-30, plus-10.  And that whole “Penguin Killer” thing has not yet carried over into the postseason.  In 13 career playoff games against the Pens, he is 4-1-5, plus-4, although that does include the 3-1-4, plus-5, he had in seven games against the Pens last spring.  

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2017-2018:

• 200 games played (currently has 196)
• 50 goals (currently has 38)
• 100 points (currently has 95)

The Big Question… How much do the Caps’ fortunes depend on Burakovsky taking the next step higher in his development?

The short answer is, “a lot.”  With the departure of Justin Williams among the top-six forwards, and there being uncertainty about whether Alex Ovechkin’s 33-goal season was a blip or the new normal, plus the question of whether T.J. Oshie can replicate his 33-goal campaign last year, Burakovsky’s offensive production is very likely to be an important ingredient in whatever success the Caps enjoy this season.  So far, Burakovsky has averaged 15.9 goals and 39.7 points per-82 games played. Being a 20-30-50 player is probably a floor for a player who should get top-six minutes on a regular basis.

That production might improve with the additional ice time he could get in a consistent top-six role.  So far, he has averaged a little over 13 minutes a game over 196 games.  If he gets Williams’ minutes from last season (15:28) and scores at the same rate he has over his first three seasons, that would bring him to a per-82 game pace of 19-28-47.  If his developmental arc is still proceeding upward, he could improve on that number and be the 20-goal, 50-point player that, perhaps at a minimum, the Caps need to safely secure a playoff spot.

In the end…

The 2017-2018 season for the Capitals does not hinge on the performance of Andre Burakovsky alone, but with as many pieces removed from last year’s club, he is one player (among several) whose performance has to come up a notch or two.  It is a lot to ask when one considers that he will not turn 23 years of age until February.  Until now, Burakovsky has been ahead of his developmental curve, a surprise roster player a year after he was drafted, finishing in the top 20 in scoring among rookies three years ago, seventh among all forwards for the Caps in points over his three seasons (fifth among returning players).

Now, he is going to have to step up in a manner commensurate with what seems likely to be a top-six forward role on a consistent basis (perhaps second line left wing, replacing the departed Marcus Johansson).  The Johansson parallel is interesting in that Johansson showed potential, but he did not make his big leap as a goal scorer until his fifth season, when he hit 20 goals for the first time.  Burakovsky is a year away from that point in his career, but circumstances would seem to dictate that he progress just a little faster.  After the discontent borne of last year’s early exit from the postseason, it just might be possible.

Projection:  20-32-52, plus-14

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2016-2017 By the Tens -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“There are certain queer times and occasions in this strange mixed affair we call life when a man takes his whole universe for a vast practical joke.”

-- Herman Melville

Three years ago, Andre Burakovsky was in the postseason in Canadian juniors, a forward for the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League.  Since then, his career has been marked by a steep climb, making the Washington Capitals Opening Night roster for the 2014-2015 season at the age of 19 and finishing with nine goals and 22 points in 53 games.  Then last season, he appeared in 79 games with 17 goals and 38 points.  Not yet 22 years of age and taking the ice on Opening Night of the 2016-2017 season for his third NHL season, he scored a pair of goals against the defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins.

And then, a lot earlier than anyone might have expected, Burakovsky hit a wall.  After scoring those two goals on Opening Night against the Penguins, he went his next 26 games without a goal.  He had only eight assists in that span and was a minus-4.  His ice time started drifting southward, finally settling under ten minutes in consecutive games at the end of that 26-game goalless streak. 

Then, he was benched.

Burakovsky, displaying a maturity one might not see in every 21-year old, took the healthy scratches for three games in stride, remarking:

“It helped me last year when I was not playing really well and I sat out for two games and came back and my game just turned around from being bad to being really good.  Hopefully it’s going to be the same thing this year.”

Was it ever.  Over his next 25 games, starting with a two-point night (1-1-2) in his return to the lineup against the Philadelphia Flyers on December 21^st, he was 9-10-19, plus-17.  He, Lars Eller, and Brett Connolly made for an extremely effective third line.  Against the Detroit Red Wings in that 25^th game, though, he took a shot off his right hand that would lead to his missing another 15 games. 

Burakoivsky returned for the last 12 games of the regular season, but his scoring touch did not return with him.  He recorded a single goal on 26 shots in those 12 games (he did have five assists).  It made for an odd scoring distribution among his ten-game splits, his fifth split (Games 41-50) an impressive 5-7-12, accounting for more than a third of his season’s goals and points.  It was an outlier of efficiency, with those five goals coming on just 18 shots (only the fourth-highest number of shots in any ten-game split for the season).  It made for a frustrating and inconsistent season for Burakovsky.

Fearless’ Take…  Contributions from the bottom six matter, and Burakovsky was not an exception.  In 11 games in which he recorded a goal, the Caps were 7-1-3, two of the extra time losses coming in the Gimmick.  Washington was 21-2-3 in the 26 games in which he recorded a point.  And being active was important, shooting-wise.  In the 19 games in which he recorded at least three shots on goal in a game, Burakovsky was 14-2-3.

Cheerless’ Take… Yeah cuz, but not shooting was something, too.  In the dozen games in which he did not record a shot on goal, the Caps were 9-3-0.  But here is the odd one.  In the 18 games in which he skated at least 15 minutes, the Caps were just 9-6-3.  And was there a player with a bigger disconnect between productivity and performance?   Burakovsky had the best individual Corsi-for at 5-on-5 on the team (55.34 percent).  And he, along with Eller and Connolly, had the fifth-best Corsi-for as a group (58.57 percent) among 78 forward combinations with at least 200 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  But Burakovsky’s shooting percentage fell by almost three points (from 13.5 to 10.8 percent) from the 2015-2016 season.

Odd Burakovsky Fact… We are not sure if Burakovsky was more “road warrior” or just unlucky at home, but he scored 10 of his 12 goals this season on the road, shooting 16.7 percent.  He was just 2-for-51 shooting at home (3.9 percent) and did not have a goal at home after January 15^th.

Game to remember…  January 19^th vs. St. Louis

What Tom Wilson was against the Chicago Blackhawks (four goals in two games), Andre Burakovsky was against the St. Louis Blues in the 2016-2017 season.  In their first meeting of the season on November 23^rd, Burakovsky recorded a pair of assists in a 4-3 win at Verizon Center.  In the finale of the season series in St. Louis on January 19^th, Burakovsky got the Caps started with a goal early in the first period on what would be his only shot on goal for the contest.  It was a fine individual effort, taking a pass from Daniel Winnik as he entered the offensive zone, skated down the middle, curled off to his right and fired a shot that snuck under the glove of goalie Jake Allen.  He added an assist on a Brett Connolly goal in the second period.  Burakovsky finished 1-1-2, plus2, to finish the season series 1-3-4, plus-5, against the Blues.

Game to forget… November 18^th vs. Detroit

Burakovsky and the Red Wings were a bad matchup in the 2016-2017 season.  He suffered the hand injury against Detroit in the second game between the clubs that caused him to miss 15 games, but he was also injured in the first meeting of the clubs back on November 18^th.  He skated just seven shifts in the first period before departing with an upper-body injury, one of three Caps forwards to suffer injuries in the first period of that game (Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie were the others, and none of the three returned to the game).  The Caps did win that contest on a late goal from Jay Beagle, 1-0, but for Burakovsky it was part of a season in which he would be limited to a total of 9:55 in ice time over two games against Detroit.

Postseason: 13 games, 3-3-6, plus-5, 64.84 5-on-5 CF%

Even now, with the Capitals having been eliminated almost two weeks ago, Andre Burakovsky remains the top individual possession player of the postseason among 147 skaters with at least 100 5-on-5 minutes (64.84 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  He, along with Lars Eller and Tom Wilson, comprise still the top forward combination among 75 combinations with at least 25 5-on-5 minutes together (73.39 percent).  So, are three goals and six points a reasonable reflection of the dominance Burakovsky displayed in his possession numbers, both individually and with teammates?  Burakovsky had a hard time getting started in the postseason, not recording a goal in any of his first ten games of the playoffs (he had two assists).  He did, however, record three goals over Games 5 and 6 in the second round against the Penguins (fittingly, given his road record this season, he had a two-goal game in Game 6 in Pittsburgh).  However he, like the rest of the club, just couldn’t or didn’t answer the bell in Game 7, going without a point and with only a single shot on goal in the season-ending game.

In the end…

The 2016-2017 season was something of a step sideways for Andre Burakovsky.  Injuries and lackluster play caused him to miss 18 games, and his production when in the lineup was uneven.  Then there was the disconnect between his superior possession numbers and the performance-based numbers of goal, assists, and points, a disconnect exacerbated in the postseason.  It made for an odd season that seemed to resemble a queer (to use Melville’s term) practical joke of sorts.  But Burakovsky remains a player who has yet to complete 200 regular season games in the NHL (he has 196), and finding a way to align performance with his production numbers is now an important item on Burakovsky’s  learning “to-do” list. 

Grade: B-

Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“Good habits formed at youth make all the difference.”

-- Aristotle

When last we met Andre Burakovsky, he was having a devil (or a Flyer, or a Penguin) of a time trying to get his offensive game untracked in the postseason.  In 12 postseason games last spring, he had one point (a goal in a 4-3 Game 1 win over Pittsburgh in the second round).  Almost as much as the lack of points was the lack of offensive aggression.  He had 16 shots on goal in 12 games, which seems a bit light for a scoring winger.  He did not record his first shot on goal of the playoffs until Game 4 of the opening round against Philadelphia.

It was a disappointing end to what was a rather pleasant sophomore year for Burakovsky.  He appeared in 79 games and almost doubled his goal (17 to 9), assist (21 to 13), and points production (38 to 22) over his rookie season.  He almost doubled his shots on goal (126 to 65 as a rookie) and lifted his shots on goal per game by almost 30 percent (from 1.23 to 1.59).  He even received as many Lady Byng Trophy votes as teammate Nicklas Backstrom (okay, each got one fifth-place vote).

He even endured a two-game benching without undue harm to his confidence, although it did take him a little while longer to get going as far as points production was concerned.  In his last 47 games of the regular season he went 15-15-30, a healthy 50-plus points rate over a full season. 

On the other hand, Burakovsky was not an especially impressive possession player.  He finished smack in the middle – seventh – of 13 forwards with at least 250 minutes of ice time in Corsi-for (51.5 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  It was a substantial drop from his rookie season (54.6). It might have contributed to a drop in goals-for/goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 from 61.1 percent in 2014-2015 to 53.1 percent last season.

Fearless’ Take…

Burakovsky is one of seven players in Caps history to record at least 25 career goals and at least 30 career assists by the age of 20.  The rest of the list isn’t bad.  It is that last part – by the age of 20 – that might get lost in the noise.  Burakovsky is just the seventh Capital in team history to play in at least 100 NHL games by the age of 20 and just the second since 1987 (Tom Wilson is the other).  It is also good to keep in mind that this is just his fourth year playing hockey in North America, a year of Canadian juniors (Erie Otters) being his first.  Burakovsky is not as much a work in progress as he is a canvass that has just been put on the easel to be painted.

Cheerless’ Take…

Looking back on last season, maybe that playoff performance shouldn’t have been a surprise.  It’s not like he went into the playoffs guns a’blazin’.  He had a goal and an assist over his last 11 regular season games.  He did the same thing in 2015; he was 0-1-1 in his last 11 regular season games.  Then, he went without a point in his first six postseason games.  And here is something odd about his shots.  Yeah, he had 126 shots in 79 games last season, but 10 of them came in one game (a 5-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on February 2^nd in which he recorded one of the two goals).  That leaves 116 shots in 78 other games (in 20 of them, he did not have a shot on goal).  Still an improvement over the previous year, but it doesn’t sound quite as impressive.

The Big Question… Is this the season Andre Burakovsky puts it together over a full year?

We do not pose that question thinking he cannot do it; we pose it wondering if, still short of his 22nd birthday, he has the experience and physical maturity to do it.  This is a big season for the Caps, arguably their last best chance to win a Stanley Cup in the short term.  If this is the year that Burakovsky can put together a solid 82-game campaign and not wilt down the stretch and the postseason, it could be the best boost the club could get in finally reaching that goal.  If there is something to provide some incentive in addition to the thrill of victory, it is that Burakovsky is entering the last year of his entry-level contract (AAV or $894,166 according to generalfanager.com).  But here is something to think about.  If Burakovsky was to sustain the production he has had early in seasons over the full 82-game slate, a 25-35-60 season would not be out of the question.  That would give him 51 career goals and 69 career assists.  Let’s round that assist number up to 70.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout, only 14 players 21 or younger had three seasons in the NHL and at least 50 goals and 70 assists.  It is a list that includes the likes of Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Nathan MacKinnon, and Taylor Hall.  It would be a big leap for Burakovsky, but not bigger than the one he made from his rookie to his sophomore year.

In the end…

Andre Burakovsky is still, at this writing, about 150 days short of his 22^nd birthday.  Like any youngster with potential, he has had flashes of showing just what that potential is, and stretches in which he disappears.  In his first two seasons, those disappearing stretches have come late in seasons, including the playoffs.  That is a habit that cannot be tolerated for long if he and the Caps are going to make a deep postseason run.  It might be asking a lot for him to grow up a little faster, but the fact is that this season might present the best opportunity the Caps will have to win a championship in the short-term.  It is not all on Burakovsky’s shoulders, by any means, but he has the skill to be an impact player for this club, and there is no better time to establish the habit of being one than now.

Projection: 78 games, 20-26-46, plus-8

Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: As The Great Talent Rush of 2016 Begins

July 1st is a date that every hockey fan circles – the start of the unrestricted free agent signing period.  Like its comparison event, the NHL entry draft, it represents hope.  Hope that can be addressed in a more immediate nature with the signing of players who can help their team now, not four or five years down the road (if at all).

Fans of the Washington Capitals are no different.  They were made very happy last year at this time when the club signed free agent winger Justin Williams to help get them over the pesky second round playoff wall they never seem able to scale.  Things did not turn out as planned, but hope springs anew as the 2016 version of the “NHL Talent Rush” commences.  I’m sure the cousins have something to chime in with on this issue, so let’s get their take…

Peerless… OK guys, let’s start with holes.  Where are they on this roster?

Fearless… If you look at the 12 forwards and six defensemen, plus the two goaltenders you are likely to want playing every night with this team, it isn’t really a team with holes, or at least they have fewer than just about any other team in the league.  Their top-six forwards are not in such a state that you would seriously contemplate taking on salary to add that level of skill, given where the Caps are on the salary cap.  The same goes for the top-four on defense.  There might not be a Norris Trophy candidate in that group, but there aren’t many teams with the balance the Caps can ice at that position.  Goaltending certainly isn’t an issue for this club.

Cheerless… Well, cuz, in this game, if you snooze, you lose.  Stand still, and you’re moving backwards.  If you’re not the early bird, you don’t get the worm.  Are you going to look at what the bottom nine forwards did in the playoffs and what the defensemen not named “Carlson” did on offense and say, “we’re good?”  If you can improve there with a free agent, you do it.  You strike while the iron is hot.  You can make the numbers work.  Other teams seem to be able to do it.

Peerless… The Caps have several free agents, both restricted and unrestricted, whose futures must be addressed.  Who stays, and who goes?

Fearless… By the time folks read this, I suspect Jason Chimera will shortly, if not already be the property of another club.  His fate was sealed when the Caps traded for Lars Eller, which will end the matter of Marcus Johansson, wing or center?  As for Johansson, a restricted free agent, I have a hard time imagining how the Caps don’t re-sign him.  He’s among the most productive players from his draft class, and he’s a solid, reliable 45-50 point contributor (at that level or better per 82 games over the last five seasons).  As for the “Mike’s” – Latta, Richards, and Weber – Latta (a restricted free agent not tendered a qualifying offer) is gone, and the other two will follow.  That leaves the other restricted free agents, Tom Wilson and Dmitry Orlov.  Both, like Johansson, were extended qualifying offers.  They have roles to play on this team; I don’t think either is going anywhere (note: Wilson was signed to a two-year extension).

Cheerless… What Fearless said, but I wonder about Tom Wilson.  Something Brian MacLellan said about Latta sticks with me… “I think the key for him is he’s gotta bring something besides energy in that fourth-line role. He’s got to kill penalties; there’s got to be another dimension to his game for him to be successful in the league.”  Something like that might have been said about Wilson last year, when it seemed his biggest skill was making mayhem.  He added penalty killing this past year, fourth among Caps forwards who appeared in more than half the games.  But he’s a 16th overall pick, too.  I think folks are going to want to see him add some more offense to his game, even if his point totals have improved every year.  The team thinks there is something there; they re-upped him for two more years. 

Peerless… Let’s get right to the nub of it.  This is a team that has built itself largely from the draft, but the last two summers the Caps have been busy under Brian MacLellan, getting defensemen Brooks Orpik and Matt Niskanen in 2014 and forwards T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams last summer.  Will they be busy this summer?

Fearless… No.  Head Coach Barry Trotz gave up the ending yesterday when he said:

“I don’t think we’ll be actively going after a high-end free agent or anything…One of the reasons is we have a couple players out here that could challenge I think for our hockey team. We’ve been patient with some of our young guys who really made a lot of progress and showed how much they’ve grown. They went to the Calder Cup Final, and they’ve really grown. We don’t want to block our good young guys with a 35-year-old veteran, who can get it done, because we have a veteran team now…We want to give some opportunity to our kids. They’ve made great progress, and I think they’ve earned that right to challenge for spots, and I think we’re not going to block them. I think if we do anything, we might add maybe one forward. I think we’ll be pretty quiet.”

That pretty much sums up what Caps fans can expect.

Cheerless… If I’m dealt two pair, I’m not throwing one of them out to try to get four of a kind.  I like my chances with this hand…maybe I look for another card to round out a full house, but I’m not blowing up my hand.  All that talk about snoozing and worms and all that.  Forget it.  The Caps have a pretty good hand right now. 

Peerless… In the end, the Caps are in a pretty good place, if you’re an optimist.  If you look at the postseason just completed, the Caps were an overtime away from taking the eventual Stanley Cup champions to a seventh game on home ice despite:

• Their leading scorer in the regular season having one point in six games against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Evgeny Kuznetsov just turned 24 in May.
• The 13^th player in team history to record at least 60 points over his first two seasons before reaching the age of 22 having one point in six games against the Penguins.  Andre Burakovsky turned 21 in February.
• A defenseman who missed an entire regular season of hockey coming into this season and who had never appeared in an NHL postseason game before this year having no points in five games against the Penguins.  Dmitry Orlov is 24 years old.
• A 16^th overall draft pick who has improved on his regular season scoring numbers in each of his three seasons having one point in seven games against the Penguins.  Tom Wilson turned 22 in March.

The worst you could say about this quartet is that they won’t get worse in the postseason.  Frankly, it would be hard to do that.  You hope, if not outright expect, that they will improve.  And, if they do next season, they do it with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, and others to perform at or near their production levels this past season. 

Go back to the quote from Barry Trotz above, and think about where the open roster spots are.  The Caps probably stabilized their forwards by trading for Lars Eller, which will likely settle Marcus Johansson in a wing slot on a permanent basis.  With Jason Chimera (likely) and Michael Latta not coming back, one could envision a spot for a winger, but this is where those “good young guys” come into play.  The Caps might want to take a long look at players like Jakub Vrana, Riley Barber, Chandler Stephenson, or Travis Boyd to fill a slot to reward developmental performance and, in the longer term, keeping salary room available for any moves the team might want to make in season or at the trading deadline.

If a lot of moves in free agency is something fans find entertaining, this free agent signing period is likely to look to Caps fans like a bad public access cable talk show.  But this is a club that would already seem to have the parts it needs, just with a little more experience for some of them, to kick in the door to the vault where that Stanley Cup is kept.

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Andre Burakovsky

Andre Burakovsky

“Life is one big road with lots of signs. So when you riding through the ruts, don't complicate your mind. Flee from hate, mischief and jealousy. Don't bury your thoughts, put your vision to reality. Wake Up and Live!”

-- Bob Marley

Andre Burakovsky was largely free of expectations in his rookie season, an unexpected acceleration of his development curve when he impressed the brain trust enough to keep him on the parent roster to start the 2014-2015 season.  It was trust well placed, as Burakovsky finished in the top-20 among rookies in assists (13) and points (22), and was in the top-25 among rookies in goals scored (9), despite appearing in only 53 games (tied for 33rd in the rookie class).  When he finished the 2015 postseason with a more modest two goals and an assist in 11 games, it might have been chalked up to his first turn on the bigger stage of the playoffs.

His 2015-2016 regular season did not fall victim to the “sophomore slump.”  In 79 games he finished with 17 goals and 38 points, one of 20 forwards 21 years of age or younger to finish the season with at least 35 points.  He nearly doubled his shot total from his rookie season (from 65 to 126) without suffering an accompanying significant loss in efficiency (13.5 percent versus 13.8 percent in his rookie year).  He tied Nicklas Backstrom for third on the club in even-strength goals (17) and tied T.J. Oshie for fifth in even-strength points (34).

It was not all skittles and ambrosia for Burakovsky, who endured a mental time-out – a two-game absence – in late November after a stretch of 11 games in which he registered just one assist.  At the time, head coach Barry Trotz said of him:

“He’s just got to clear his mind.  He’s a young guy who’s thinking about a lot of things. I just talked to him about just worrying about his own game and not worrying about all the other stuff. He’s getting frustrated over things he doesn’t need to get frustrated over. He’s over-thinking things, and what he needs to do is just concentrate on his own game.”

Even after that short hiatus, though, he struggled to put up numbers, putting up just a pair of assists over a 14-game stretch.  However, starting with a goal in a 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on December 30th, Burakovsky went on to go 15-15-30, plus-7 in his last 47 games.

As it was, he had some odd splits over the course of the season.  There was the disparity in home scoring (9-14-23, plus-10) versus road scoring (8-7-15, minus-6).  And, he seemed to have an affinity for playing teams from Pennsylvania.  The only two teams against which he scored two goals this season were the Philadelphia Flyers (two goals in four games) and the Pittsburgh Penguins (two goals in five games).  The odd thing about that was that the Caps lost every game, an overtime loss to the Flyers in which he recorded his only two-goal game of the season and a pair of losses to the Penguins (one in overtime).

Fearless’ Take… Burakovsky spent a lot of time on the second line this season, suggesting a certain scorer’s responsibility, but sometimes it is easy to overlook just how young he is.  He is just the 11th player in Capitals history to have played at least 100 games and recorded at least 50 points in his first two seasons without having reached his 22nd birthday.  Only four Capitals have done it since the 2004-2005 lockout – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson are the others.

Cheerless’ Take… Cuz mentioned that slow start Burakovsky had to this season.  He didn’t mention the slow finish, and that was before the playoffs.  He had a goal and an assist (both against Pittsburgh in a 4-3 overtime loss on April 7th) in his last 11 games.  The eight-game streak he had without a point from March 22nd through April 5th tied his longest of the year (in November, part of that slow start).  Oh, and the Caps lost four of five games in which he recorded more than 17 minutes of ice time.

Odd Burakovsky Fact… He was the only Capital other than Alex Ovechkin to record 10 or more shots in a game this season.  He had one goal on ten shots in a 5-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on February 2nd.  He is one of four Capitals in the Ovechkin era to record ten or more shots on goal in a game and the first to do it, other than Ovechkin, since Alexander Semin had ten shots on goal in a 3-1 loss to the Boston Bruins on October 19, 2010.  For the record, Ovechkin has recorded ten or more shots in a game 45 times in his career, Alexander Semin did it three times over that same span of time, and Mike Green and Burakovsky did it once apiece.

Game to Remember… January 5th versus Boston.

Sure, there was the goal against the Bruins, the Caps’ first one of the contest at TD Garden in Boston, converting in one motion a nifty cross-ice feed from Evgeny Kuznetsov…

…but Burakovsky also managed to hound Zdeno Chara into taking a delay-of-game penalty for shooting the puck over the glass, the Caps scoring on the ensuing power play, and he finished the game with a season high three credited hits in just under 17 minutes of ice time in a 3-2 Caps win on January 5th.

Game to Forget… December 8th versus Detroit.

Late in the first period of a 1-0 game, there was a faceoff in the Caps’ end to the left of goalie Braden Holtby.  Henrik Zetterberg won it from Michael Latta and headed for the net.  He then took a return pass from Dylan Larkin to tie the game.  What was noteworthy about the play was what Andre Burakovsky was doing…

…not much of anything as it turned out, Zetterberg cutting underneath him in open ice to take the pass and score.  Burakovsky got six more shifts after that and finished with his lowest ice time number of the season (6:45), although the Caps did get the win in a Gimmick, 3-2.

Postseason: 12 games, 1-0-1, minus-1, 59.7 5-on-5 CF%; plus-10.7 CF%/Relative

Years from now…well, maybe months…ok, for now…folks will look at Andre Burakovsky’s performance numbers in the postseason (one goal in 12 games, a minus-1 overall) and look at his personal underlying numbers (59.7 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, Corsi-for/Relative of plus-10.7) and scratch their heads in wonder, asking themselves, “how did THIS happen?”  In only two of the 12 games in which he played did opponents have more shot attempts than the Caps at 5-on-5 when he was on the ice (Games 2 and 3 against the Philadelphia Flyers).  Only once was he underwater in Corsi-for/Relative at fives (Game 4 against the Flyers; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  But there is was, one goal…one point…in the postseason.  Ain't no "Corsi" Smythe Trophy in the playoffs.

In the end…

Andre Burakovsky had what was a pretty nice second season in the NHL blow up in the postseason.  But then again, he’s a young guy.  Don’t forget that.  The Caps have had 26 forwards in their history play in at least 50 games over their first two seasons and not yet reach their 22nd birthday.  Burakovsky ranks smack in the middle of that (13th) on a points per game basis (0.45), roughly the same as what Marcus Johansson did in the same situation in his first two seasons before reaching his 22nd birthday (0.49 points per game). 

It is a bit early to draw any conclusions about Burakovsky’s destiny, even with the disappointing postseason.  He is, as he was at the start of the season, a promising player, perhaps one who is still slightly ahead of his expected development curve.  But this postseason did serve as something of a wake-up call, that regular season numbers are nice, and fancystats are all the rage.  But Cups are won with goals, assists, and wins, and Burakovsky will be evaluated in the postseason if not overall, as will the team, on the basis of how many of those they put together in the spring.

Grade: B

Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America