Showing posts with label sabres. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sabres. Show all posts

Friday, April 03, 2009

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, April 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The last home stand of the regular season is half over, and the Caps have two wins to show for it. They will look to make it three in a row when the Buffalo Sabres come calling. And that means Lindy Ruff will be in town coaching the Sabres. Ruff is the longest tenured coach in the NHL, and his history with the Sabres dates back to the 1979-1980 season, when he broke in as a 19-year old and played 63 games for the Sabres.

How long ago is that? Well, as the curtain was rising in October of that 1979-1980 season….

- The US returned the Canal Zone to Panama

- Pope John Paul II became the first Pope to visit the White House

- The Quebec Nordiques’ Real Cloutier became only the second NHL player to record a hat trick in his first game.

- Allan McLeod Cormack and Godfrey Newbold Hounsfield won the Nobel Prize for medicine for developing the CAT scan.

- The Philadelphia Flyers started their NHL all-time best 35-game unbeaten streak.

- Wayne Gretzky scored his first NHL goal.

- “Monday Night Football” broadcast its first game from New York City (the Jets beat the Vikings, 14-7)

- Mother Teresa was awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace.

- Home Depot was four months old and was operating in four stores in Georgia.

- Bryan Trottier was the defending Hart Trophy winner. It would be the last time someone not named “Gretzky” won the trophy for the next eight seasons.

- Ken Dryden and Michel Larocque of Montreal were the defending Vezina Trophy winners

- Denis Potvin was the defending Norris Trophy winner.

- Bob Gainey was the defending Selke and Conn Smythe Trophy winner.

- Bobby Smith was the defending Calder Trophy winner.

- Bob MacMillan was the defending Lady Byng Trophy winner.

It's been awhile...

If the Caps made a habit of playing desperate teams in March, then they are playing a team on life support tonight. Being six points out of a playoff berth with six games to play qualifies for the NHL equivalent of last rites, and the Caps could administer them this evening. What is puzzling is how Buffalo got into this position given their numbers…


Part of the problem, it seems, is that Buffalo’s strength in past year – its scoring balance – has become something of a weakness. The Sabres have 18 players in double-digit scoring and could finish the season with 20, which would match their number from two seasons ago. But that 2006-2007 team, which led the league with 53 wins and 113 standings points, had two players topping 80 points – Daniel Briere (95) and Thomas Vanek (84). Maxim Afinogenov pitched in at better than a point per game pace, too.

This year’s Sabres might be balanced, but they seem to lack a go-to scorer. Vanek looked to be that guy early, scoring 25 goals in 37 games in the 2008 portion of the season. But since New Year’s Day, he has only 12 goals in 30 games. He had an especially difficult March with only three goals in 12 games. Perhaps April agrees with him a bit more – he had a pair of tallies in a 3-2 overtime loss to Atlanta in his first game of the month.

Derek Roy leads the club in scoring with 67 points, which has to be seen as something of a disappointment, given his scoring progression in his first four years (19, 46, 63, and 81 points). What’s more, his March wasn’t very special – 4-4-8, -9, in a dozen games.

Perhaps visiting Washington will be a tonic for these two. Vanek has three goals in three games against the Caps this year (6-5-11 in 15 career games), and Roy has a goal in three games against Washington (8-7-15 in 17 career games).

Dominic Moore was picked up at the trading deadline from Toronto, perhaps with an eye toward providing some secondary scoring. He was in the midst of his best offensive season – 12-29-41 in 63 games with the Maple Leafs – but he’s been more or less silent in Buffalo. In 12 games since the trade, he is 1-3-4. Buffalo is his fifth team in five NHL seasons. We’re betting he’s on a first name basis with moving van companies across North America.

Two years ago, in that 53-win season, the Sabres had seven defensemen with at least ten points, and all 10 of those who dressed that year finished the season even or better, led by Brian Campbell’s +28. This year, there is that balance – six defensemen have at least ten points – but the scoring is down significantly, and among those players who have played in at least 50 games, only Craig Rivet is in plus territory.

Clearly, this team isn’t the same since the departure of Daniel Briere, Chris Drury, and Brian Campbell. That is 75 goals and 212 points from that 2006-2007 season not skating for the Sabres. But Ryan Miller is still there in goal. He’s even having a better year, statistically, than he did two years ago. His goals-against average is down (2.73 to 2.57), his save percentage is up (.911 to .918), and he has more shutouts (five versus three). What he hasn’t had is health. Two years ago, he played in 76 games. This year, he missed a month with an ankle injury in the middle of what should have been Buffalo’s push to the playoffs. He’s been fairly sharp since his return, though, going 2-0-1, 2.85, .911. He’s also been successful against the Caps – 8-3-0, 2.53, .910, with two shutouts. He is 1-1-0, 1.51, .949, with one shutout against the Caps this year.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Ryan Miller

Last week, CBC asked the question in an online story headline, “Is it too late for Miller to save Sabres?” At this point, that’s about what it comes down to. Buffalo has become a very average offensive team, and the defense has holes in it due to departures and age (five defensemen are past 30, and two are past 35). The Canadiens and Rangers aren’t playing so well in seventh and eighth place that they are impossible to catch at this stage, but the Sabres would almost have to win out to do it. And to do it, Miller has to be at his absolute best, starting tonight.

Washington: Michael Nylander

To be charitable, Nylander has had a difficult year. It is the classic case of a player with skill and talent who just doesn’t seem to fit in with what it is the Caps are trying to do. Nylander had a rough March – 1-2-3, -3, in eight games and sitting in the press box on some nights. April, if it is possible, started worse. In the first game this month, he was held off the score sheet and sat for the last 17:48 of the game after skating only eight minutes. He does have 28 points in 37 career games against the Sabres, though, and sometimes the day is darkest before the dawn. Let’s hope so…the Caps could use a productive Nylander going forward.

The Caps are in a position to make history – they are within six standings points of the franchise high for a season – in a season where a fair amount of history has already been made. But that is really secondary. The Caps are getting ready for the playoffs. Jose Theodore could get the baseball cap tonight in favor of Semyon Varlamov, and Coach Bruce Boudreau might be further inclined to test line combinations and defense pairings. It could make for a closer game than fans might like, but in the end, well…two points is two points.

Caps 3 – Sabres 2


Wednesday, December 31, 2008

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Sabres 2


Nice symmetry.

The Caps rang in the year doubling up the Ottawa Senators, 6-3, and they closed the year by doubling up another Northeast Division opponent – the Buffalo Sabres – by a 4-2 score last night.

And what a difference a year makes…

Three Stars:

Then (vs. Ottawa): Mike Green, Brooks Laich, Michael Nylander
Now (vs. Buffalo): Nicklas Backstrom, Viktor Kozlov, Paul Gaustad (BUF)

Scoring Leaders:

Then: Green (2-1-3), Laich (1-1-2), Nylander (1-1-2), Boyd Gordon (1-1-2)
Now: Backstrom (1-1-2), Kozlov (0-2-2), six players with one point

Goaltending:

Then: Olaf Kolzig (31 saves, 34 shots)
Now: Jose Theodore (31 saves, 33 shots)

Faceoffs:

Then: Nylander (11 of 16/68.8%)
Now: Nylander (8 of 12/66.7%)

The big difference is that the first game/first win of 2008 gave the Caps a 16-19-3 record. The last game/last win of 2008 gives the Caps a 24-11-3 record. The club closed the year with a 52-23-6 record (110 points).

As for this one, there was a little bit of everything for the Caps. That first goal scored by Brooks Laich…it’s a pity one couldn’t award four assists for it. Ovechkin to Green at the left point… back to Ovechkin… to Kozlov in the high slot… to Backstrom at the right wing faceoff dot… to Laich at the top of the crease… goal. The entire sequence took all of seven seconds to execute. The Sabres on the ice should have been charged the price of a ticket for the view they had of what occurred.

If that goal was big on style points, the next one was just as sweet. David Steckel took a pass from Eric Fehr at the center red line and steamed into the Sabres zone, unleashing a slap shot that goalie Ryan Miller couldn’t steer into a corner the way he might have liked. The rebound came out all fat and happy on to Chris Bourque’s stick, and as the youngster would put it later, "I wasn't going to miss that one." He didn’t. He fired it past a still on the ice Miller, and Bourque had his first NHL goal.

Goal three started with Alex Ovechkin carrying the puck into the Sabre end, then Nylanderizing the play by peeling off at the right wing boards. He sent the puck to Green, who ripped a drive on goal. The puck squirted off into the left wing circle and onto Viktor Kozlov’s stick. Kozlov calmly eased the puck to Nicklas Backstrom, who from the top of the crease deposited it past Miller (ticket prices went up for the Sabres standing around watching events unfold).

Boyd Gordon completed the scoring for the Caps with a full-court…uh, length of the ice shorthanded empty-netter, and the Caps had another win, their 11th in 13 games, to finish December 11-3-0.

Stuff…

- Jose Theodore has established some order to the goaltending situation with his fourth straight win. He has stopped 95 of his last 101 shots faced (.941).

- Brooks Laich now has six goals in his last nine games. The Caps are 8-1-0. Coincidence? We don’t think so.

- Only three Capitals played more than 20 minutes last night (one of them was Tyler Sloan). Only Chris Bourque played less than ten, and that was by one tick of the clock. That’s getting everyone into the game.

- It would be nice though, to get Nylander more involved. In 14:43 last night, he had no shot attempts, no takeaways, no blocked shots, and a giveaway. But for his 8-of-12 faceoff performance, it would have been a mighty empty score sheet on his line of it.

- Matt Bradley had four hits to lead the team last night. Guess he’s feeling pretty good after his making the acquaintance of the side boards with his head on Sunday.

- Nine Caps had multiple shots on goal. For a team that usually has Ovechkin flirting with double digits in shots these days (he had four last night), that’s pretty remarkable.

- Buffalo had, and there is no other way to put this, a really bad game. A lot of standing around, a lot of coughing up the puck (18 giveaways). Even when they scored with less than eight minutes gone in the third to make it a 3-1 game, one didn’t have the feeling they were in it.

- This was the first time in five games a Buffalo game did not end with a one-goal result. The Sabres are 1-2-2 in those five games and are poised to slide out of the top eight. We’ll ask it…are these the first indications of Lindy Ruff losing this team? He’s been there almost as long as hot wings.

- We keep saying this, and we’ll keep saying it…if Eric Fehr ever cashes in on the opportunities he’s getting and making (he had six attempted shots last night, none of which found the back of the net), it could set off a string of scores.

And so ends 2008. It didn’t have a playoff series win to commend it, but 52 wins ain’t bad. It’s worth noting that mighty Detroit didn’t have as many (they can console themselves by spending time polishing that Cup they won). And to finish the year by winning in a city that has given the Caps fits over recent years makes it especially satisfying. Great job, boys.

Monday, December 29, 2008

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, December 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, we’ve come to the end of 2008, and the Caps will ring out the year in the hip-hoppin’ burg of Buffalo, New York…The Queen City… Land of the Odd Chicken Parts as Bar Food… the town only snow could love. Speaking of snow and remote locales, we got really…really tired of all this “Malkin for the Hart” talk and decided to take things into our own hands and go to the people. No, not ESPN-addled, Crosby-sotted, Penguin wannabe hockey fans…folks who have never been biased by the All Penguins, All the Time marketing of the NHL. We went to places where people had never seen hockey (no, not Tampa) – Hockey Virgins, if you will – and asked them to choose between the Russians, Malkin and Ovechkin. Herewith, we present the results…









Well, the creepy obsession these folks seemed to have with hamburgers aside, we now have proof of which hockey player is number one in the hearts of unbiased hockey fans. And with that question settled, we can turn our attention to this, the last game of 2008. The numbers for the Caps and the Sabres…


When last these teams met the past Friday, the Caps saw Patrick Lalime in goal. This time, the Caps are likely to see Ryan Miller. And this is a goalie who can be said to be in an odd slump. In his last five games he has allowed three or more goals in four of them. In the fifth – against Los Angeles on December 19th – he had a 40-save shutout. So, which is it? The goalie who was 3.86, .880 in the four games he allowed goals in his last five appearances, or is it the goalie who shut out the Kings in the other appearance and who is 8-2-0, 2.48, .911 in 11 career appearances against the Caps? Well, Miller does have a shutout against the Caps this year (5-0 on November 1st in Buffalo).

The skaters for the Sabres are, once again, characterized by their balance. 13 skaters are in double digits in points (to ten for Washington). Where they are not balanced, though, is in goal scoring. Thomas Vanek has 25 goals, exactly 25 percent of the Sabres’ total for the year. He has more goals than the next two goal-scorers, combined (Derek Roy, Jason Pominville). However, Vanek is in his most extended drought of the season. He has a single goal (in last Friday’s game against Washington) in his last six games. Vanek had a pair of tallies when the teams met in November and is 6-5-11 in 14 career games against the Caps.

Vanek’s goal-scoring aside, the Sabres are a team that can come at you from anywhere. Seven different players have game-winning goals against the Caps, none more with two. And oddly enough, that group does not include Jason Pominville, who always seems to play well against Washington (4-4-8 in 13 career games). But Adam Mair, not generally thought of as a goal-scorer, has a pair of game-winners among the four goals he’s scored against the Caps in his career.

And even though Vanek is the big goal-scorer in terms of volume, Derek Roy is a player who has picked his spots for big ones lately. Roy has five goals this month, three of them game-winners. He had a nine-game points streak snapped against the Penguins on December 22nd and was scoreless last Friday against the Caps, but did manage an assist in his last game, against the Islanders on Saturday.

If there is one place Buffalo has enjoyed a distinct advantage over the Caps, it is in stability on the blue line. Five Sabre defensemen have played at least 33 of the 36 games played by the Sabres this year. Only Milan Jurcina has played as many as 33 games this year (37) among the Caps defensemen this year. Those Sabre defensemen are led in total scoring by Jaroslav Spacek (1-17-18), who actually has a second job, playing as part of the ensemble cast of the NBC sit-com, ”The Office.”

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Jaroslav Spacek

In last Friday’s game, Spacek was on the ice for both of the Caps’ first two goals, once not getting over quickly enough to get into Viktor Kozlov’s shooting lane when the Caps’ winger fired a slap shot in full stride down the right wing, and once out of the play when Boyd Gordon deflected a Milan Jurcina drive past goalie Patrick Lalime. You wouldn’t call it a great night. The Caps have scored three or more goals in seven of their last nine games in going 8-1-0. The Buffalo defense will have to give Miller help, and Spacek is going to have to have a better game than he had on Friday.

Washington: Brooks Laich

In the 8-1-0 streak, Laich is 5-1-6 and is doing the dirty work in front that earns him scoring opportunities. Buffalo is not an especially physical team by NHL standards, especially among the defensemen. Laich is only 1-2-3 in ten career games against the Sabres, but he’s doing the things he does best to get into scoring position and could get some opportunities in this one.

Buffalo has not been hospitable to the Caps. Over the last five-plus seasons, the Caps are 3-8-0 and often have looked ghastly in losing. In all eight of those losses in Buffalo the Caps have allowed four or more goals. In seven of them they allowed five or more. More than even Pittsburgh, perhaps, this might be the most difficult city in which the Capitals have played in this decade. But while the Caps have struggled historically, the Sabres have struggled recently – 3-3-2 in their last eight games overall, 2-2-1 at home in that span. On the other hand, the Caps’ lone loss in their last nine games involved giving up seven goals to an opponent on the road.

Makes for an interesting game, doesn’t it? But you already know how we think this will end…

Caps 4 – Sabres 2

Monday, December 08, 2008

How?

How is it that a team that since 2003 has seen its average attendance increase by almost 45 percent to finish second in the league last year...a team that is still averaging 99.3 percent of capacity this year in official attendance...a team that only two years ago stood atop the Eastern Conference in the regular season and reached the Conference finals...



Saturday, November 01, 2008

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, November 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are live here at Peerless Central with the last prognostication you’ll ever need on tonight’s tilt between the Capitals and the Buffalo Sabres at Home of the Sabres Bitching Center Arena. To look at some Buffalo sites, you’d think the Sabres were the bottom feeders of the NHL…

“Pominville, Roy off to Slow Starts”

-- Buffalo News (online) headline

“Ruff Barks after team plays without bite.”

-- Another Buffalo News (online) headline

“Ruff Shakes Things Up in Depth Chart”

-- Sabres.com

“It seems like when we get home we try to make that extra play, try to make it a little too cute and it ends up costing us.”

-- Jason Pominville, in Sabres Notebook (Sabres.com)

"[The Lightning] won more battles. That’s all it comes down to. They won more battles and I’m not going to make any excuses. They were the better team, they won the battles they skated better and they were a lot better with the puck and that showed. They made a lot better plays."

-- Lindy Ruff, after a loss to the Lightning Thursday night

“Music to my ears…”

Well, if it isn’t Cheerless…hey cousin, I haven’t seen you since…

“Yeah, since you had us do those infernal previews. Where’s that beer you promised?

Uh, it’s in the mail. What are you doing here?

“You know me…’Cheerless’ an ‘ all that. Well, what more cheerless place is there than Buffalo?”

What do you mean, cuz?

“I was reading that Buffalo.com site?...and whaddya think they’re talking about on their ‘Let’s Talk’ column?...


”Take a deep breath, or time to panic? Everything seemed so nice a few weeks ago. As recently as Oct. 23, the Buffalo Bills were 5-1 and memories of the Arizona massacre were already dim thanks to a nice performance against the stumbling San Diego Chargers, and the Sabres were 6-0-1 after a miraculous win in Minnesota. Since that fateful Thursday, however, our hometown teams have combined for zero wins and 4 losses - including embarrassing missteps to the Miami Dolphins and Ottawa Senators, two of local sports fans' most hated rivals.”

“Makes me look like Polly Sunshine, don’t it?”

I see your point…but let’s focus, shall we, on the Sabres, who did start 6-0-1, but who are 0-2-1 in their three games to close out the month of October. Overall, where to the contestants rank?...




First, we put those hits up there as an indicator that this isn’t likely to be a rock ‘em-sock ‘em sort of game. There is likely to be an up and down aspect to it that could be of advantage to the Caps, since their shot differential (5.4 shots-per-game to the good) is much greater than is Buffalo’s (-0.3 shots-per-game). Add that to the disparity in faceoffs won, and you would think one thing to look for is how well the Caps can tilt the rink toward Ryan Miller and the Sabres’ defense.

Apart from that, there is the matter of whose will can be imposed on the other. The Caps would like to make this a 5-on-5 game. Their goals for/goals against ratio at five-on-five is markedly better than is Buffalo’s. On the other hand, Buffalo clearly has the better special teams play, both when having a man advantage and when down a man.

The battle of wills also extends to who scores first. If the Sabres do, they usually win. If the Caps allow that first goal, they usually…win. The thing is, though, there is perhaps no more reliable indicator of which team will win an NHL game than looking at who scores first. 27 teams have a winning percentage of .500 or better when getting the first goal. Washington, it is worth noting, is one of the three teams not in that group.

Individually, a discussion of the Sabres might start with Thomas Vanek. The $50 million man (over seven years, as the Sabres matched an offer tendered by Edmonton last year) had something of a slump last year in the first year of his big contract. He dropped off by seven goals, 13 assists, and 20 points in finishing 36-28-64. The biggest drop of all was in his plus-minus number. After leading the league in that figure with a +47 in 2006-2007, he dropped off to a -5 last year that had him ahead of only Dmitri Kalinin and Maxim Afinogenov on his own team. It suggested that perhaps he was less his own talent and perhaps more of who he was surrounded by in 2006-2007 (Daniel Briere and Chris Drury having left Buffalo last year in free agency).

Well, Vanek has come back with a vengeance. He leads the Sabres in goals (1st in the NHL), points (T-10th in the NHL), power play goals (T-4th), and shorthanded goals (T-1st). He has not been extraordinarily successful (3-5-8, +6 in 12 career games) against the Caps. He was held without a point in three games against Washington last year…but he was 2-3-5 in four games in 2006-2007.

On the other side is Derek Roy. Perhaps no other player emerged from under the shadow of the departed Briere and Drury for the Sabres last year than did Roy. He improved his scoring from 21-42-63 in 2006-2007 to a 32-49-81 mark last year, getting an additional 2:31 of ice time a night. This year, Roy is leading all Sabre forwards in ice time per game (2:32 more than last year and more than five minutes more than two seasons ago), but he’s struggled. His 1-4-5 is good for only seventh in scoring on the team; his only goal an overtime game winner against Minnesota.

At the other end of the ice, the Sabres are characterized by a balanced, mobile blue line. There is no real big hitter there, no top scorer, and none of the group emerges when there is a discussion of best-in-the-NHL candidates. But Jaroslav Spacek, Teppo Numminen, Tony Lydman, and Henrik Tallinder are all solid two way players. To that group was added Craig Rivet, presumably as a defensive anchor. However, Rivet had arthroscopic knee surgery recently and is out for this one.

The other addition is intriguing. Andrej Sekera, who played in 37 games as a rookie with the Sabres last year, leads the Sabres in ice time this year. The trouble, perhaps, for the Sabres, is that in doing so, he’s been a minus player in six of his ten games and five of his last six. Not to say he’s the cause of such a result, but he’s been in the vicinity. One would think that if Rivet was in the lineup, Sekera would not be getting that amount of work (averaging almost 27 minutes a game since Rivet went out).

The last line of defense for the Sabres is goalie Ryan Miller. Miller is staking an early claim to be considered among the league’s top goalies. He is fourth in the league in goals against (2.07), tied for sixth in save percentage (.928), and brings a record of 5-1-1 into this game. He did, however, lay an egg in allowing five goals on the first 30 shots he faced in a 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay on Thursday. His numbers against Washington are not as bright – 2.75 GAA and .900 save percentage, but he does have a 7-2-0 record in ten career appearances against Washington.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Maxim Afinogenov

The 29-year old forward has yet to score a goal this year (0-7-7). One might think this a slump, but his goal scoring dropped off from 23 (in 56 games) in 2006-2007 to ten (in 56 games) last year. He has one goal in his last 25 regular season games (1-12-13, -9). But, he is 8-10-18, +1 in 27 career games against the Caps. Which Afinogenov shows up tonight will likely be an important factor in whether the Sabres can break their losing streak.

Washington: Brooks Laich

Laich is likely to open on the left side of the top line, replacing Alex Ovechkin. Although Laich has only a single goal in his last seven games, his importance here might not be in scoring as much as it will be doing the dirty work to get the puck to Nicklas Backstrom and Viktor Kozlov. If he can pick up the garbage in front, all the better. Given that Buffalo doesn’t, as a rule, have an especially physical defense, he might get opportunities in that area.

The Caps haven’t yet righted the ship after losing the first two games of the western road swing – their two wins have been shaky, to say the least. But they’ve found a way to scratch out extra points in both in extra time. That seems to be the formula for the moment, and in a hostile place that has been unkind to them lately (the Caps are 3-7 over the last five seasons in Buffalo), they’ll have to have their sandpaper out to scrape one out.

Caps 3 – Sabres 2

Friday, July 18, 2008

Take that Detroit!..Miller signs with Buffalo


That sound you might have heard early this afternoon was the collective groan of fans of Red Wings Nation, which might have been expecting a native son to return home.

But Ryan Miller has re-signed with the Buffalo Sabres...five years, $6.25 million per.

Unless Jimmy Howard is really something, the Wings might be having goaltender issues in the not too distant future.

As for the Sabres, they finally get to hold on to a potential free agent. It doesn't make up for the losses of Daniel Briere, or Chris Drury, or Brian Campbell...or maybe even Dainius Zubrus. But it's something for Sabres fans to breathe easier about.