Your Second Half Prognostos

And now it’s time for . . . second-half prognostos.

We’re going right to the source here, the ne plus ultra of the prognosticatory arts – The Magic 8-Ball. We will consult this oracle to discern just what lies in store for the Caps (and some other things) for the rest of this year . . .

Oh, Magic 8-Ball . . . will the Caps procure a defenseman before the trading deadline?
…yes.

Will Richard Zednik finish the season a Cap?
...yes

Will this defenseman trip over the boards in his first practice and be lost for the season to a "lower body" injury?
…ask me later.

Oh, great oracle, is Peter Forsberg in the Caps’ future?
…ask yourself. (hey, did I get a wise-ass 8-ball?)

Will Alex Ovechkin win the Richard Trophy?
…not a chance (not exactly shy about it, are you?)

Will Alexander Semin win it?
…yes (well, that’s better)

Will Ovechkin win the Ross Trophy?
…signs look good.

Will he win the Hart Trophy?
…ask me later.

Will the Caps finish the season above .500?
…yes.

Will they make the playoffs?
…no

Will they finish ahead of Pittsburgh?
...who knows?

Will they be a lottery team?
...no

Will Glen Hanlon win the Adams Trophy?
…no

Will Sidney Crosby be spirited away by aliens?
…who knows? (The Peerless didn’t hear a “no” in there…)

Will the Penguins stay in Pittsburgh?
…no

Will Gary Bettman suffer weeping sores and have his limbs set upon by rabid gerbils?
…signs look good (hope springs eternal!)

Will The Peerless win the Powerball grand prize?
…yes

Well, The Peerless is off to see what island he wants to buy.

Better . . .

Last night's NHL All-Star Game was more akin to a professional production than the "let's put on a SHOW!" effort the previous evening for the Young Stars Game and Super Skills Competition. Part of it was that the guys on the ice are the best salesmen for the sport the league could ask for. Equal parts good time and competitive edge, the game also served to point out that the league really is more than Sidney Crosby (or Alex Ovechkin).

16 players accounted for the 21 goals in the 12-9 Western Conference win. 26 players had points (Sidney Crosby not being among them). The big Eastern line of Crosby, Ovechkin, and Brendan Shanahan was held to a single point -- Ovechkin's goal (assisted by Daniel Briere -- imagine that) in the second period.

But there was the venerable Joe Sakic with four assists, Brian Rolston and Rick Nash chipping in two goals and two assists, respectively, for the West. The story for the West was the unsung all-stars -- Lubomir Visnovsky had a goal and an assist and was +4. Rolston was +5. And Yanic Perreault wrote the next chapter in his unlikely season by scoring a pair of goals and having a +5 night. Uncharateristically, though, Perreault lost 9 of 15 draws. The Peerless suspects he'll take that trade for a night, at least. Marian Hossa had four helpers for the East, and Daniel Briere was 1-4-5, +5 for the East to win him the game's MVP award (prognosticated, accurately of course, by this author).

Some guys struggled. It was not a night to be a Tampa Bay Lightning representative, as the pair of Lightning -- Vincent Lecavalier and Martin St. Louis went a combined 1-1-2, -9. Crosby and Simon Gagne were -4, apiece. The goalies were, as one would expect abused mercilessly (21 goals on 77 shots -- 27.3 percent shooting percentage). Martin Brodeur has an especially difficult night, giving up six goals on 16 shots. But he and Marty Turco were good sports about it, as they were mic'ed up to provide running commentary (a nice touch for the telecast, although Brodeur's commentary was lost when his microphone was popped loose on a goal he allowed). Turco, in particular, seemed to warm up to the idea, appearing to offer comments while in the midst of saves.

And, as if this should be a surprise to anyone, no hits were recorded -- none (Jeremy Roenick not having been invited to this game).

If there was a coming out for any player, The Peerless might be tempted to go with Zdeno Chara. Much has been made these last two days that he is the largest player in the history of the league, and he uses a stick that seems to span the width of the rink. But Chara had a couple of goals last night and showed good instincts in jumping into the play. He's shown this from time to time, but on this stage, he really shined.

One should not make too much of this game. It is what it is -- an enjoyable romp for the game's best players, given an opportunity to display the skill and even the good humor that is absent in the night-to-night crush of games during the regular season. The Peerless thought it was immensely entertaining.

As for the broadcast, it seemed as though Versus, if it didn't find it's "A" game, found something close. Doc Emrick was a lot sharper last night than for the skills competition, and the supporting commentary was for the most part appropriate without being intrusive. They even found use for the "rail-cam," although here's an idea . . . put that thing on the other side of the ice. Watching that thing running the rail in front of the play on the wider shots got to be annoying after a while.

But all that is details. It was a nice break for players and fans in the midst of a long season. It's back to work tomorrow and the beginning of the sprint to the finish.

More grit needed? . . . or better judgment?

Read Tarik El-Bashir's column this morning in the Washington Post on the Caps trying to add "grit" to the game of Alex Ovechkin. What came to mind by the time I finished it was, "right church, wrong pew."

The argument goes something like this . . . Ovechkin is a gifted offensive player -- a young, gifted offensive player -- who someimes cheats a little too much for his own good trying to get a jump on the offensive attack. No quarrel there. Anyone who has attended a Caps game in person can testify to the "peek" . . . when Ovechkin peeks back to see if a Caps player is about to get possession of the puck, upon which he turns and heads up ice. Trouble is, sometimes, the Cap player doesn't end up with possession, and it's a 5-on-4 in the Caps' zone. Not a good way to endear yourself to your goaltender, as one might interpret from Olaf Kolzig's comments:

"It's not blowing the zone to get a head start on a defenseman . . . It's not about cheating. It's playing the system and playing it right in his own end. He's made strides, but then he takes a step back. He's got to remind himself every game that it's defensive zone first. Because you win championships with defense. And he's the kind of guy who can help us win a championship, but he's got to be committed in his own end."

There is truth in this, but there was something in the comments of George McPhee that made me a bit uncomfortable:

"He's already proven to a lot of people that he's an elite player . . . But he wants to win a Cup. Our objective is to find how he can help us get there. Look at a player like Steve Yzerman. For years, he scored lots of points, but he really needed to learn how to play defense in order to win a championship."

I don't know that this is precisely the problem, or the solution. What Yzerman learned (and Messier and Gretzky -- also cited by McPhee in the article) is judgment. There is a time for flat-out, pedal-to-the-metal attacking, and there is a time to be a rock in your own end. The trick is judgment -- knowing what is needed in each game, on each shift. Yzerman, Messier, and Gretzky learned those skills and, more important, how to apply them in situations that called for them. Ovechkin always will be an "offense-first" player. It does not absolve him from learning and applying the discipline that comes with playing sound defense. But the trick for the Capitals' braintrust is not in just making Ovechkin a better defensive player -- that's half the battle. The trick is to impart to him a sense of what needs to be applied on every shift -- of being the kind of player who knows instinctively and precisely what is needed on that shift and how to apply it.

Yzerman is probably the best example of a player who learned those skills and who developed a sense of judgment to figure out what was required of him on every shift. It's part of what made him the leader he was, especially over the latter half of his career.

Why bother?

I watched that skills competition last night, and the above question came to mind. So much of the format seemed either stale or silly, and the presentation of it was -- well, it's not possible to be charitable here -- awful.

These few seconds . . .



. . . were more fun to watch -- in regular-season competition, mind you (and I'm not a fan of the shootout) -- than just about anything offered up last night.

I'm pretty much an "old school" type, but the two days of all-star celebration is the league's chance to really showcase what it is that makes these guys "all-stars." Creativity, competitiveness, showmanship, style, skill. And we get . . . three guys standing around . . . pass-pass-pass . . . pass-pass . . . pass-pass . . . shoot.

yeesh.

I'd sooner see a "trick shot" competition, with one shooter in on the goalie in a penalty shot format, free to do just about anything with stick and puck to try to score a goal, similar to the NBA slam dunk competition (ok, we don't like to make NBA comparisons here, but humor me). The goal must be scored to count for the shooting team, and scored goals must be judged by an elite panel of from the hockey world (former players would seem best here).

This is but one example. I think one could pluck one hockey fan at random from every NHL city and come up with at least as creative a list of events as what we saw, for the most part, last night.

As for the production, one thing illustrated the problem for me as much as anything else. It was at the top of the Young Stars Game, when our plucky commentators pointed out that there would be a "rail-cam" that would show the speed of the game at close to ice level. Well, we were treated to more shots of the rail-cam Amtraking it along its rail than were were to shots from the rail-cam. It had all the look of a production thrown together in the last 48-hours before the events.

One prays that the game fares better tonight. The league could use the help.

F = m * a

For those of you who remember high school physics, that's the expression of Newton's second law of motion, where force equals mass (where mass is a constant) times acceleration.

We don't bring this up to have a test at the end of the hour, but to highlight something reported in Tarik El-Bashir's column in this morning's Washington Post on the NHL's introduction of its new uniform "system" at tomorrow's All-Star Game. In it, El-Bashir writes...

The [new] uniforms also are supposed to reduce drag by 9 percent, according to wind tunnel testing at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

We have a game that has been characterized by many -- in derogatory terms -- as having less hitting than the "pre-lockout" version of the sport or any of a number of previous generations of hockey. Now, we are going to be treated to large men with malice on their minds skating faster in a confined space.

It's nice that the league has spent untold amounts of money testing and developing a lighter, more aerodynamic uniform for the benefit of the players (the $424 price tag for fans is a secondary consideration, of course). But guys? You might want to think about doing some more research on helmets. Maybe it's a good thing that Bettman Hockey is a pale imitation of its more physical ancestors. Someone might get killed out there.

The Rebuild...Revisited

“Rebuild”

As a verb, it can mean:

1. to repair, esp. to dismantle and reassemble with new parts
2. to replace, restrengthen, or reinforce
3. to revise, reshape, or reorganize
4. to build again or afresh

With reference to the Caps, it is used as much as a noun, a reference to the “rebuild” that commenced with the 2003-2004 season. Three years down the road, where do the Caps stand? Let’s look at the deals that tore down the Caps and started the rebuild, and the returns.

Steve Konowalchuk – traded to Colorado for Bates Battaglia and the rights to Jonas Johansson, October 22, 2003.

Konowalchuk was, from reports at the time, not happy with the direction of the club and was interested in moving west. He was accommodated in this trade. Battaglia spent one season with the Caps (66 games, 4-6-10, -23) before departing as a free agent. Johansson, who will be 23 in March, has struggled to make an impression at the minor league level.

Grade: F

Robert Lang – traded to Detroit for Tomas Fleischmann and a 1^st round draft pick in 2004 (defenseman Mike Green) and a 4th round pick in 2006 (forward Luke Lynes), February 27, 2004.

Lang was an echo of the Jaromir Jagr trade – a center of some familiarity to Jagr who would complement him and help justify his salary. Between the two, they were earning $16 million/year, but the Caps were struggling in the standings. Fleischmann has put up fine numbers in the AHL but has not yet demonstrated an ability to stick at the NHL level. Further, he is a left wing – a position the Caps already have filled with Alexander Semin and Alexander Ovechkin. He might at some point become a trading asset. Green is in his first full year with the Caps after splitting time with Hershey last year. Green is a “Young Stars Game” selection for NHL’s all star celebration and is second on the Caps among defensemen in +/-; he should develop into a solid top-four defenseman. Lynes is a long term project.

Grade: B

Sergei Gonchar – traded to Boston for Shaone Morrisonn and 1^st (defenseman Jeff Schultz) and 2^nd (center Mikail Yunkov) round draft picks in 2004, March 3, 2004

Gonchar was/is the prototypical offensive defenseman – an all-star caliber player annually among the leaders in scoring among defensemen. He also can be a liability in his own end. Morrisonn shows promise as a top-four defenseman (he is getting top-pair minutes for the moment). He is the closest thing the Caps have to a defensive stopper, which is not to say this should – or will be – his long term role. Schultz has played decently, if unspectacularly, in his rookie season at Hershey. He’s also had a couple of call-ups to the big club. Yunkov is a long term project.

Grade: B

Jaromir Jagr – traded to the New York Rangers for Anson Carter, January 23, 2004 (Caps also liable for a substantial share of remaining value of Jagr’s contract)

Playing “The Seven Degrees of Jaromir Jagr” is always fun. He was obtained for three prospects (Kris Beech, Ross Lupaschuk, and Michal Sivek) and $4.9 million on July 11, 2001. It was, and remains, the single biggest transaction in the club’s history for impact (the selection of Alexander Ovechkin was a given the moment the Caps won the 2004 draft lottery, so the impact there wasn’t as greatly felt). After disappointing results, Jagr was moved for Carter, who was moved for Jared Aulin. Aulin was not resigned by the Caps. He hooked up with the Springfield Falcons on a PTO deal, but was released after 13 games.

Grade: D- (the only saving grace of this deal is that the Caps are liable for only half of Jagr’s salary and it contributed to the Caps’ ability to land the first pick in the 2004 draft . . . it could have been worse).

Peter Bondra – traded to Ottawa for Brooks Laich and a 2^nd round draft pick in 2005 (parlayed with another pick via trade with Colorado into the 27^th overall pick – defenseman Joe Finley), February 18, 2004

Speculation on whether Bondra would be a victim of the purge lasted for weeks leading up to his eventual trade. The lack of return was somewhat suprising at the time. Laich is a checking forward whose long-term value to the club is debatable (the Caps have many of his type of player, and the Caps should be upgrading their skill as time passes and other youngsters develop). The jury on Finley is still out; he is in his second year at the University of North Dakota.

Grade: C-

Mike Grier – traded to Buffalo for Jakub Klepis, March 9, 2004

Grier was a well-liked member of the club, and his trade was a bit of a surprise (although Klepis was reported to be a favorite of General Managere George McPhee going back to Klepis’ draft by Ottawa in the 2002 draft). Grier has since moved on to San Jose, Klepis is struggling at the moment in his rookie season, getting reduced playing time lately and the occasional healthy scratch. He has an uncomfortable tendency to take the lazy penalty and has not yet consistently displayed the playmaking ability he is thought to have. That he is a rookie is a consideration here.

Grade: C

Michael Nylander – traded to Boston for a 2^nd round draft pick in 2006 (Francois Bouchard) and future considerations (a 4^th round pick in 2005 – defenseman Patrick McNeill), March 4, 2004.

Nylander moved on to the New York Rangers. Bouchard and McNeill are still with their teams in juniors (Baie-Comeau Drakkar in the QMJHL, and Saginaw in the OHL, respectively). Each must be regarded as long term projects.

Grade: incomplete

Brendan Witt – traded to Nashville for Kris Beech and a 1^st round draft pick in 2006 (goaltender Semen Varlamov), March 9, 2006

This is a special case, the last of the 1990’s core of the Capitals to be moved. Witt, who almost certainly would not have returned to the Caps as a free agent at the end of the 2005-2006 season, ended up with the Islanders; Beech returned to where he was originally drafted. Beech has not been the answer at center on the second line, despite repeated opportunities given to him to take that position by the throat. It would appear that Caps fans will have to settle for dreams of Nicklas Backstrom next year insofar as that issue is concerned. The selection of Varlamov is curious, given the long lead time for goalie development, lower free agency age thresholds, and the notorious problems in picking winners among goaltenders high in the draft (see: Brian Finley, Mathieu Chouinard, Maxime Ouellet, Brent Krahn, among others).

Grade: incomplete (but The Peerless isn’t optimistic, owing to the considerable uncertainty surrounding the Varlamov pick).

So there you have it . . . the Caps moved:

Steve Konowalchuk
Robert Lang
Sergei Gonchar
Jaromir Jagr
Peter Bondra
Mike Grier
Michael Nylander
Brendan Witt

…and received in return:

Jonas Johansson
Tomas Fleischmann
Mike Green
Luke Lynes
Shaone Morrisonn
Jeff Schultz
Mikail Yunkov
Brooks Laich
Joe Finley
Jakub Klepis
Francois Bouchard
Patrick McNeill
Kris Beech
Semen Varlamov

…and nothing for Jaromir Jagr

Some might argue that the Adam Oates deal in 2002 should be included – this netted goaltender Maxime Ouellet, and a 1^st (ultimately a Dallas pick that yielded Alexander Semin), 2^nd (Maxime Daigneault), and 3^rd (Derek Krestanovich) round pick in 2002. However, the Caps made the playoffs the following year, and this is not considered part of the “rebuild.”

Indirectly, the biggest prize of all wasn’t obtained in trade. Absent these 2003-2004 deals, the Caps probably do not finish 28^th in the league, putting them in position to win the draft lottery for first overall selection. The Caps did, they did win the lottery, and Alexander Ovechkin was the result.

The, uh . . . Afternoon After

points to-freakin'-day.

What the $#@& was THAT?

Uh, guys? These are the Florida Panthers, not the Edmonton Freaking Oilers of 1985?

Sometimes, numbers don’t tell the story. Today, it was ALL about the numbers . . .

42-18 . . . No, that’s not the score of the New Orleans Bowl (that was Troy 41 – Rice 17). It was the shots on goal. For those of you who follow that particular number, that’s 177 – 88 by which the Panthers have outshot the Caps in four games this season.

32-6 . . . From the 10:26 mark of the first period when Ben Clymer took a shot on goal until the 9:35 mark of the third when Brooks Laich was credited with one, the Caps were outshot by this margin.

74 . . . the total of shots on goal credited to Florida (42), missed shots taken by Florida (13) and shots blocked by the Caps (19).

10 . . . the number of minor penalties the Caps took.

16:24 . . . the total amount of time the Caps spent shorthanded in the game.

12:00 . . . the total amount of time the Caps spent shorthanded in the last two periods (more on this, later).

2 . . . the number of shots taken by Alex Ovechkin. He hasn’t had fewer in a game since March 12^th of last year, against Ottawa. Last I checked, no one was confusing the Panthers with the Senators.

14, 17 . . . 14 skaters were responsible for 17 giveaways. Florida had only ten giveaways for the game.

Two . . . the number of shifts Kris Beech had after the first period. The Peerless doesn’t think this was an accident.

9:33 . . . the ice time for Jamie Heward. Given that Lawrence Nycholat had more than 24 minutes, a gimpy Mike Green more than 18, and even Jeff Schultz more than 13, The Peerless doesn’t think this was an accident, either.

4.12 . . . Olaf Kolzig’s goals-against average in four games against Florida this year.

.933 . . . Kolzig’s save percentage in four games against Florida this year. For the record, no goaltender in the league has this high a save percentage for the season.

5-11-0 . . . the Caps record since they beat the Flyers on December 16^th. Maybe they caught something.

But here was the turning point of the game. It didn’t even happen during any of the periods. Florida was whistled for four penalties in the first eight minutes of the first period. The first of them was a goaltender interference call on Martin Gelinas. Gelinas didn’t take his punishment lightly and said something to referee Bill McCreary, who was skating away from Gelinas. McCreary did a U-turn and went straight to the box, pointing emphatically at Gelinas. At the close of the period, as the teams were skating off, Gelinas skated up to McCreary and held forth for more than a minute, calmly by all appearances (The Peerless notices such things). Florida was whistled for only three more penalties the rest of the way, the Caps for six. Neither team scored on any of their power plays, and The Peerless is not suggesting that McCreary took special pity on Gelinas, but sometimes, honey works better than vinegar in catching flies (or getting on the better side of a referee). And, the power play discrepancy is there to see. Spending 12 of the next 34 minutes shorthanded (including allowing a goal on one power play) did nothing for the Caps in terms of establishing, let alone maintaining any rhythm.

Look, the Caps are beat up on the blue line, and the Panthers exploited this to forecheck the crap out of Washington. But the forwards didn’t exactly help out here, either. One might think, hey, the defense is kind of green and kind of beat up (that was Jamie Hunt skating in the pre-game, in case Mike Green couldn’t go) . . . maybe they could use some more support. Didn’t happen. It just wasn’t a very responsible effort on the part of the forwards, and it was a predictably bad performance by the defense in its wake.

Olaf Kolzig deserved a whole lot better, as he has often from his teammates against this opponent this year.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, January 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

HEL-L-L-L-L-L-L-P!!!

John Erskine, Bryan Muir, Mike Green, Brian Pothier.

Injured, injured, injured, sick. And we’re not even up to Richard Zednik.

So, The Peerless has assembled a crack panel of medicos to discuss the situation and offer some advice. First, Lt. Col. Henry Blake . . . Dr. Blake, can you explain this?

"Look, all I know is what they taught me at command school. There are certain rules about hockey and rule number one is young hockey players get hurt. And rule number two is doctors can't change rule number one."

Cpt. B.J. Hunnicutt . . . can you explain the rash of injuries?

"You've gotta understand I'm not working on sick people here…well, except for Pothier. I'm working on hurt young people, with essentially healthy bodies that have been insulted by pucks."

Maj. Frank Burns, can you sympathize with teammates and fans who are seeing players felled like this in such numbers?

"I'm sick of hearing about the injured. What about all the dozens of wonderful guys who are playing this game without any of the credit or the glory that always goes to those lucky few who just happen to get their feet broken."

"Frank, it's after six, you can stop being snotty!"

Cpt. B.F. Pierce . . .

. . . “Hawkeye” . . .

Ok, Hawkeye, doesn’t it play on players’ minds, the possibility that I might be next?

“Hockey's pretty much the same story: the fighting goes on, the hatred, the violence, the senseless brutality, men behaving like animals - and then there's the game.”

Maj. Charles Emerson Winchester, do you ever remember a number of injuries like this?

“The only thing Charles remembers fondly from his childhood is his hair.”

Col. Sherman Potter . . . what do you make of reporting injuries like this as “lower body” injuries? This seems to be a recent development.

“Horse hockey! Now you take World War II. My unit got the word that Nazis, dressed as eskimos, had overun Seattle. Incredible as it seems, half my unit believed it."

Maj. Sidney Freedman, you might have a different take on this as a psychiatrist. Any advice for the folks in Capitals Nation?

"Ladies and gentlemen, take my advice, pull down your pants and slide on the ice"

Now that sounds like a novel solution . . . as for the game itself, wakee-wakee Caps fans. This is an afternoon game. One o’clock. So eat a hearty breakfast and let’s get ready for payback!

When last the Caps and the Florida Panthers skated off the ice, the Caps were on the short end of a 7-3 debacle. The shock seems to have had its effect on the Panthers, who managed a single standings point in the two games that followed (that earned in a 3-2 OT loss to Carolina). Florida is 4-3-3 in their last ten games, which is a pretty good definition of treading water. Given that they sit 14^th in the Eastern Conference, that isn’t all bad – it could be viewed as improvement – but it won’t help them advance in the standings much, either.

Among Panthers to watch, Stephen Weiss, who had a hat trick against the Caps last Saturday, has been all but quiet on the score sheet in the two games since, recording only an assist. Olli Jokinen, who does not have an especially distinguished career record against the Caps (8-10-18, -16 in 36 games), say a seven-game points streak ended in his last game, against Toronto. On the other hand, Josef Stumpel, who managed a single point in his last five games to end 2006, has had points in five of seven games in 2007. Jay Bouwmeester seems to be fulfilling the potential many felt he had when drafted in 2002. He’s had a solid season this far, but is really starting to eat up minutes. In eight of the last 12 games he’s logged in excess of 25 minutes. Rostislav Olesz might have only eight goals on the year, but seven of them have come in his last 15 games. And, for your fun Joel Kwiatkowski stat – the forward leads the team in faceoffs-won percentage (100 percent). He is one for one on the year.

The Caps had a bad road trip. There really isn’t a way to sugar coat that. Don’t bring any of this “they played better than their record” nonsense this way. They played four games, they lost three. They were blown out in two of them. They gave up 17 goals in three losses. That’s not good, not at this time of year.

The game against Carolina – a 5-2 win – was closer than the score indicated, owing to two empty net goals in the last minute, but a win is a win, just as a loss is a loss (really deep, there, Peerless). They did play well, especially in keeping the Hurricanes from establishing any momentum. And, Olaf Kolzig did what a veteran goalie might be expected to do. He played as if saying, “enough is enough.” 34 saves on 36 shots in the other guys’ building is a good night anywhere.

A lot might be made of Alexander Ovechkin’s having “only” four goals in his last 11 games. But, on the other hand, he’s got 12 assists for a 4-12-16 line. He is not just, as some folks in other cities think, just a puck hogging goal scorer.

Alexander Semin’s scoring line is the mirror image of Ovechkin – 10-2-12 in his last seven. He is now seventh in the league in goal scoring, second among Russian players, and first among players with less than 100 games of NHL experience (he has 95).

Just like last week, this is an opponent the Caps should beat. This is the getaway game for the All-Star break, it’s at home, and the boys want to head out on a high note. There really isn’t an excuse for being flat (like, “gee, it was a 1:00 start”), and there isn’t one for losing this game. It’s time to look at each game with a higher sense of urgency. It should be a fine afternoon for the home team.

Caps 5 – Panthers 2

Clothes Make the Team

The NHL is rolling out its new take on player uniforms as part of its all-star celebration.

Feh . . .

Thanks to sfischer over on the Caps' official discussion boards, who found this tidbit from a Hurricanes' blogger, we can offer up our own humble proposal for the essentials of a Caps uniform . . .








Beats the crap outta this . . .


(Reebok/CCM Hockey)

Oh, to be a Flyer Fan, Now That Winter is Here . . .

0-8-1 at home since their last win at Wachovia Center . . . last November 24th . . . Black Friday.

When does spring training start for the Phillies?

Your fun Alexander Semin stat for January 19th...

...in his last 82 NHL games, Semin has 35 goals.

For second year guys not named




or



. . . that's pretty darned good.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Hurricanes

A two point night! . . .




. . .and that’s why Olaf Kolzig is important to this team.

A disappointing road trip . . . three straight losses . . . finishing up against the defending Stanley Cup champs . . . in their building . . . and they haven’t lost a game in regulation to a division opponent in more than two months (9-0-1).

So what do the Caps get? A 34-save performance, including 13 in the third period, when Carolina was trying to mount a furious comeback.


(AP Photo/Stan Gilliland)

It was a closer game than the final score would indicate, surely. Two empty net goals in the last minute will do that. In the first 59 minutes, though, there was a weeks worth of odd bounces, some benefiting the Caps, some not.

There was David Tanabe suffering a moment of brain lock (ooh, look at the pretty butterfly . . . ) trying to knock down a puck that was headed from Chris Clark’s stick to the far left wing corner. Well, that’s where goalie John Grahame thought it was going, so he wandered off the reservation to try to corral it. But thanks to Tanabe’s trying to use his stick like a butterfly net, the puck was redirected just past the stick blade of the diving Grahame and into the Hurricane net.

Clark managed a second goal – scored as an one of the “empty net” variety – but it’s hard to adopt that characterization (yes, The Peerless understands the scoring rule here) when the puck caromed into the Hurricane net off a sliding Carolina defender.

In-between, there was Alexander Semin, who scored two mighty spiffy goals – one of them four seconds into a power play when Dainius Zubrus won a draw in the Carolina end, and Semin sccoped up the puck, danced between two Carolina defenders as if they were extras in Madame Tussaud’s Wax Museum, and snapped a shot over Grahame, who waved wanly at the puck as if saying farewell to an old friend (hey, that Acme School of Goodly Writing is coming in handy!).

Semin’s second goal was a similar thing of beauty as he took a nice stretch feed from Donald “Wayne” Brashear, flipped the puck to his forehand, and in one motion snapped the biscuit just under the crossbar. It would be interesting (meaning: “I’m too lazy to do the leg work”) to see just how many of Semin’s goals were scored above the goalie’s shoulders this year. More than any Cap, he seems to have a knack for scoring high.



(AP Photo/Stan Gilliland)


Looking at the other side of the scoreboard, it would be difficult to find much fault with either of the ‘Canes’ goals. Steve Eminger actually had inside position on Erik Cole when a puck was sent toward the Cap net from the other side of the ice. Kolzig managed to get a piece of it, but it flipped over him to the other side of the net, and Cole did what scorers do – he snapped around and timed his backhand swipe at the puck perfectly to deposit it into the empty half of the Caps’ net. The second goal was the product of a deflection off the shaft of a stick from far in front of the net. Kolzig seemed to be tracking the slap shot taken on the play, but the redirect sailed over his right shoulder.

The Caps played with energy last night – something that has been strangely missing from their game in the last two outings, especially. 17 shots in the first period and a whopping 33 hits credited for the game (maybe it was the scorer – he had the ‘Canes with 34 . . . there isn’t that much hitting in a Jermain Taylor fight).

And let’s have some huzzahs for Jeff Schultz. Almost 19 minutes of play, pressed into emergency service as a result of injuries, and he acquitted himself well – no Carolina goals were scored on his watch, and that’s always a good thing for a defenseman. One can look up and down the Cap lineup and find nice performances . . . Shaone Morrisonn: 5 hits and a +2 . . . Steve Eminger: 4 hits, a couple of blocked shots, and a +2 . . . Alex Ovechkin: 5 hits, 6 shots, an empty-netter, and a +2 . . . Ben Clymer: might have had a -1 for the night, but he had five shots to set the tone in the first period and had four hits to go along with it . . . Chris Clark: a +3 to go with his pair of goals . . . and of course, Kolzig being the sturdy rock in the nets with 34 saves on 36 shots. It was among his best performances of the year, given the opponent and the circumstances.

The Caps took a good team playing well and stuffed them in their own building. That’s a glimpse of what this team can be. They are not good enough or experienced enough, yet, to do that every night. They can be. Now, let’s see if they can work on consistency Saturday afternoon on “Payback Saturday” against the Panthers.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, January 18th

Another day, another opportunity.

It doesn’t get any easier, either. Tonight’s opponent – the Carolina Hurricanes – are 4-0-1 in their last five games. There is a lot of that going on lately . . . recent opponents are clubs that have playoff aspirations, and they’re starting to play up to that.

Special teams have carried the day for the Hurricanes in this five-game set. The power play has converted seven of 29 opportunities (24.1 percent), scoring two power play goals in three of the five games. It was the one game in which the Hurricanes failed to register a power play goal that serves to blemish their five-game record (a 4-3 shootout loss to Atlanta). The penalty killers have killed off 19 of 22 man-short situations (86.4 percent).

As one would expect, the five-game surge has been fueled by contributions from Carolina’s scorers:

Erik Cole: 4-4-8, +5
Ray Whitney: 2-5-7, +2
Rod Brind’Amour: 0-7-7, +3
Eric Staal: 2-3-5, +1
Justin Williams: 4-1-5, even

In 177 career man-games, this quintet is 70-81-151 against the Caps.

Cam Ward would appear to be the choice in goal tonight (he backstopped John Grahame in the Hurricanes’ last outing). Ward is playing to a high level himself – 7-3-1, 2.22, .931 in his last 12 games. Having picked up four points on first-place Atlanta over the last five games, the ‘Canes are humming right along.

On the other hand, the wheels are coming of the Caps’ little red wagon – literally. Mike Green is sidelined, as reported by Tarik El-Bashir this morning, after taking a puck off the left foot Tuesday night in Ottawa. George McPhee characterized is as “a little more than day-to-day.” That, kids, is McPheese for “can you say, Barbaro?” Green’s injury means that the Caps have a yard of defensemen – three feet – on the shelf. “Yard?” “Three feet?” Three guys with injured feet? I kill me this early in the morning.

Not coincidentally, the Caps have seen their defensive statistics plummet since John Erskine, Bryan Muir, and now Mike Green have taken one in the boot. Okay, who ever thought the loss of Erskine or Muir would be cause for concern? It is a commentary on the state of the Caps, Caps fans, and even the odd (very odd, Peerless) blogger that such a statement could be contemplated. Nevertheless, since the Caps started down this path with Erskine’s injury against the Flyers on December 16th, the Caps are 4-10-0 and have given up a whopping 52 goals in those 14 games (3.71/game). They’ve also yielded 17 power play goals in that span in 63 shorthanded situations . . . 73.0 percent. For the casual hockey fan, that statistic can be described as “yeesh.” You might keep this in mind, along with Carolina’s 24.1 percent pwer play conversion rate in their last five games, when viewing tonight. If the Caps are going to turn this pig around, it’s going to have to be through reversing their recent penalty killing trend and snuffing out Carolina’s power play. Even though Mike Green does not log much ice time killing penalties, the mounting injuries are no doubt going to mess with Glen Hanlon’s mind in coming up with pairings, which can’t be a good thing for the defense.

Another word for “challenge” is “opportunity.” I learned that in some goofy management class, somewhere. What the Caps need is more this . . .

(Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

. . . and less this . . .

(Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

. . . so Caps fans can . . .



Caps 4 – Hurricanes 3.

Semantics

The Caps being mired in a slump of late – losers of ten of their last 14 games – one might be tempted to start looking at the roster before us and saying, “ya know?...they’re bad.”

I would not use that characterization.

What the Caps are is “inconsistent.” If you look back over a schedule that finds the Caps 19-20-7 this morning, you’ll find that they’ve had points-earned streaks of five games, four games (twice), and three games (twice). On the other side, they’ve had streaks of games lost in regulation of five games and three games (twice, including currently).

The Peerless doesn’t really understand why this is so surprising. The Caps top goal scorers are 21 years old and 22, respectively – both in their second full year of NHL play. They have three defensemen – Shaone Morrisonn, Mike Green, and Steve Eminger – with fewer than 400 combined games at the sport’s hardest position. Throw in a Brooks Laich, a Jakub Klepis, or a Boyd Gordon, and you’re talking about players, none of whom have two full years of NHL experience.

Part of the Caps’ problem is how they got here. On December 16th the Caps had just knocked off the hapless Flyers and stood at 15-10-7. Merry freakin’ Christmas, could the playoffs be far behind? Well, then the problems of the holidays and all that nonsense (remember, these are people with lives, too), and the grind of the winter schedule, not to mention some inopportune injuries to defensemen conspired to put the Caps behind the eight-ball.

There is a difference between playing badly and being “bad,” a difference between being inconsistent and being “bad.” The Caps have lacked consistency all year, and right how they are playing “badly.” But, they are not “bad.”

Now the Flyers? . . . They’re bad.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Senators

No points, tonight, folks.



Getting to be a tired refrain, isn’t it? Tonight's 5-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators makes that three in a row, eight of their last 11, ten of their last 14. As each one is heaped on the last, playoffs are becoming more a wish than an expectation.

Tonight, it was the Ottawa Senators showing why they have been Stanley Cup contenders (well, at least until the playoffs actually start) and the Caps can only see that in their future. To their credit, the Caps played a smart, under control game for the first 15 minutes or so of the game. Then, an odd thing happened. Andrej Meszaros scored a goal from 55 feet out. It was the kind of iffy goal that can have a depressing effect on a young, struggling team, and that’s pretty much the effect it had. Mike Comrie scored a couple of minutes later – in the last minute of the period – and this could have just flattened the Caps.

Then, an odder thing happened. Chris Clark picked up the puck and scooted down the left side in the dying seconds of the period. Looking pass, he snapped the puck far side past goalie Ray Emery and off the post for a goal with 2.3 ticks left in the period. It was the kind of goal that could turn the momentum of a game.

Ottawa didn’t even blink.

The Senators just played a patient game through the first half of the second period, and when an opportunity presented itself, they were quick to convert it. An odd bounce off the end boards behind Brent Johnson ended up on the stick of Daniel Alfredsson just to the left of Johnson at the post. Alfredsson snuck the puck between Johnson’s glove and the post, and Ottawa had their two-goal lead once more. Mike Comrie scored a minute later, and the Caps were bleeding all over the ice again. The rest of the game was mere details.

The Senators handled adversity calmly, patiently. The Caps handled it like, well, kids – panicky and without confidence. The latter is the story of the Caps lately. And that kind of behavior shows up in neon lights on the scoresheet – 17 goals allowed in their last three games, 40 in their last 11 (of which they’ve lost those eight), and 51 in their last 14 (in which they are 4-10-0).

If you look at the standings in the East, there are the first hints of some separation in the standings. Tampa Bay (currently 8th) came into tonight’s play with a four-point lead on three teams tied for ninth. The Caps are on the wrong side of that divide – five points behind the Lightning starting play tonight -- and you get the first sense that the season could be slipping away. And, one can see some frustration starting to creep in (it sure seemed that way with Alex Ovechkin, who has “only” three goals in his last ten games and took an unnecessary shove at Dany Heatley as the latter was going off on a shift change). The Caps did not play altogether that poorly tonight. They played just poorly enough to be on the wrong side of every meaningful play and every odd bounce. Ottawa converted those opportunities . . . the Senators had a few more shots, a couple more takeaways, some more blocked shots, won a few more faceoffs. In no single aspect of the game did Ottawa truly dominate – except on the scoreboard, where it actually matters. And that’s the difference between a club that has skill and experience and a club that is lacking in both. You think maybe you’re not playing that badly, and all of a sudden, you’re on the wrong end of a 4-1 score barely ten minutes into the second period.

The Caps are at a critical juncture of their season right now. As unsuccessful as their last month has been, the risk now is that the bottom falls out of the rest of their season. That’s a test of fortitude as much as skill. Players and a team can have their character tempered under such situations; it’s part of learning how to win. Ten years ago, a young Daniel Alfredsson and Wade Redden were going through it with the Ottawa team the Caps fell to tonight. Hopefully, ten years from now Caps fans will look back on nights like this – all too frequent these days – as part of what building a lasting competitor was all about.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Senators, January 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

When the Capitals visit Scotiabank Place to take on the Ottawa Senators, the thought that will come to mind is, “reversal of fortune.” When Ottawa slunk away after taking a 6-2 spanking from the Caps on December 6^th, they did so with a 15-13-1 record, and folks were asking, “what’s happened to Ottawa?”

Well, over the 18 games since, the Senators are 11-6-1, not to mention 9-1-1 in their last 11. Meanwhile, the Caps – for whom that Senator game might have been the high point of the season – are 7-10-1 since that win over Ottawa.

In most respects, the “before and after” that December 6^th game aren’t that remarkably different for the Senators:

Goals for…before: 3.48/after: 3.33
Goals against…before: 2.94/after: 2.79
Power play…before: 16.6%/after: 22.7%
Penalty kill…before: 84.8%/after: 80.7%

But over their last 11 games . . .

Goals for…4.27
Goals against…2.18
Power play…25.0%
Penalty kill…90.2%

And, their big guns have boomed to life over the last 11 games. Dany Heatley is 8-12-20, +16 (that is not a misprint…+16). Daniel Alfredsson is 8-12-20, +12 (that’s not a misprint, either). Both Heatley and Alfredsson are better than a point-per-game over the course of their respective careers against the Caps. Even Chris Kelly, who The Peerless wagers maybe one Cap fan in 50 has actually heard of, is 5-10-15, +11 over the last 11 games (nope, no misprint there). They’ve been explosive, too -- in seven periods of hockey in these last 11 games they’ve scored at least three goals. At the moment, it is the Ottawa offense with which fans have become accustomed.

But it isn’t as if Ottawa is doing it just by ramming the puck down opponents’ throats. With only 24 goals allowed in their last 11 games, they’ve been stingy, too. And consistent -- only once have they yielded more than three goals in a game in this run (they won), and they have two shutouts, both by Ray Emery, who is 7-1-1 in his last nine decisions, 2.21, .926.

If there is one Senator who has struggled – and continues to – it is Andrej Meszaros. Last year, as a rookie, Meszaros was 10-29-39, +34. He is 5-19-24, -11 this year, and even in this latest run of Ottawa success is only 1-4-5, +1.

The key here for the Caps is to avoid precisely the thing to which they are vulnerable – allowing goals in bunches. In 18 games since last meeting Ottawa, the Caps have had 14 games in which they’ve allowed at least one multiple-goal period. They are 3-11-1 in those games (two of the wins were against Philadelphia; we’ll leave it the reader as to whether they should count). That they would lose such a large percentage of such games is hardly surprising, but the large number of games in which it occurred suggests a defensive slump.

And, of course, there is the matter of scoring first. Since the last Ottawa game the Caps are 4-1-1 when scoring first, 3-9-0 when giving up the first goal.

All this merely serves to explain the obvious – the Caps can’t let Ottawa get off to a fast start, and if the home team does score first, the Caps have to find a way to stop the bleeding right away. Ottawa is in a groove that could spell serious trouble right out of the gate for the Caps.

But hey, there is a silver lining here, and it wears a number “1.” Brent Johnson -- likely to get this start -- is 3-0-0, 0.91, .972 in four games against the Senators over his career. The Caps could use that kind of performance to right their own ship and perhaps start a run of their own.

As you might imagine, it says here that this is precisely what will happen...

Caps 3 – Senators 2.

Progress?

The 45th Game…

On January 14, 2004, the Caps tied Calgary, 3-3, in their 45th game of the season. The outcome isn’t as important as who was responsible. It speaks to where the Caps are through 45 games this year. If one looks at the roster that took the ice that night and compares it to the rosters that took the ice in the 45th games of the following seasons (a 5-4 shootout win against St. Louis in 2005-2006, and a 7-3 loss to Florida last Saturday night), what is remarkable is the turnover:

2003-2004	2005-2006	2006-2007
Forwards:
Bates Battaglia	Matt Bradley	Matt Bradley
Peter Bondra	Alex Ovechkin	Alex Ovechkin
Mike Grier	Brooks Laich	Brooks Laich
Jeff Halpern	Colin Forbes	Kris Beech
Jaromir Jagr	Chris Clark	Chris Clark
Robert Lang	Dainius Zubrus	Dainius Zubrus
Kip Miller	Ben Clymer	Ben Clymer
Matt Pettinger	Matt Pettinger	Matt Pettinger
Trent Whitfield	Brian Sutherby	Brian Sutherby
Stephen Peat	Brian Willsie	Donald Brashear
Darcy Verot	Boyd Gordon	Boyd Gordon
Alexander Semin	Jeff Friesen	Alexander Semin
Defensemen:
Jason Doig	Mathieu Biron	Jamie Heward
Sergei Gonchar	Bryan Muir	Lawrence Nycholat
Brendan Witt	Brendan Witt	Mike Green
Rick Berry	Nolan Yonkman	Steve Eminger
Joel Kwiatlowski	Shaone Morrisonn	Shaone Morrisonn
Todd Rohloff	Ivan Majesky	Brian Pothier
Goalie:
Olaf Kolzig	Olaf Kolzig	Olaf Kolzig
Rastislav Stana	Brent Johnson	Brent Johnson

Of the 20 players taking the ice in that 45th game two seasons ago, only three – Matt Pettinger, Olaf Kolzig, and Alexander Semin (who missed the 2005-2006 season) took the ice on Saturday. The entire defense has been replaced.

The table inserts players in their rough approximations of who replaced whom (there are obvious mismatches of roles because of carryover elsewhere – Brian Willsie for Stephen Peat comes to mind). And what is striking there is the difference between a team “on paper” and the one that takes the ice. If you look at certain positions “on paper” there is a considerable drop off in talent. For example, I don’t know anyone who is likely to take Chris Clark over Jaromir Jagr in a fantasy league. Or Lawrence Nycholat over Sergei Gonchar. But the 2006-2007 team is 13 points better – more than 40 percent – than that 2003-2004 club. There is a “glass half full,” “glass half empty” aspect to that. Sure, the Caps are improved, but they’ve left a lot of points on the ice this year, too.

It’s frustrating – for fans, certainly, but it has to be that way for players, too. One step up, one step back, and the guys are at 45 points in 45 games. But there is a bigger picture here, as well. Through 45 games, the Caps had those 32 points in 2003-2004. Last year, they had 37 points (16-24-5). 45 this year. The improvement has been consistent and significant from year to year, which really is the object of the exercise. And this is a group that has not spent all that much time playing together, especially at this level of play. What the team needs are the factors that make diamonds out of coal – time and pressure. Time to develop that knowledge of one another and the pressure of having to deal with different situations, including emerging expectations among fans of a playoff run . . . soon.

Of Eggs and a Basket

Yesterday, hockey fans were treated to one of the sappiest exhibitions of hero worship it has ever been my experience to witness. One could excuse it if it was the case of a young player looking to one of his NHL heroes as an example for his own play, or even a long-time fan who finally gets to meet his favorite player that he’s watched for years.

But no, this was a fawning of the most inexcusable kind – media covering a game, openly cheering the routine and exaggerating the mundane in a single player’s efforts. And in my mind, it reflects a problem the NHL is creating for itself in what looks for all the world to be blissful ignorance.

Watching and listening to the NBC coverage of the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers yesterday, I had to wonder if even Sidney Crosby would have been embarrassed at the praise being spread on him thickly like too-sweet an icing on a birthday cake. Pierre McGuire was especially offensive, but he wasn’t alone. Let me point out, I’m a fan of the Washington Capitals, so the thought of rooting for or even acknowledging the talent of a Penguin comes hard. There are too many bitter playoff memories to sift through. I’m mindful that what follows could be construed as “Crosby-bashing.” It is not meant to be. I happen to like Crosby’s play. I like the edge and determination he brings to his effort; he doesn’t just fall back on his supreme skill, something it would be tempting for a player of his talent to do.

But the increasing oneness with which Crosby and the league are portrayed – that this, as McGuire put it with respect to a goal scored by Mark Recchi yesterday, is “all about Sidney Crosby” – poses what in my mind is a potential problem for the league.

In no other professional team sport in North America have the league in question and their broadcast partners put their eggs into one basket in the manner the NHL and its partners seem to be in the case of Crosby. Baseball sells the timelessness of the game, its rivalries, and its records. Football sells the logos of its respective teams, regardless of which player s might wear them, and the “event” nature of each game. Basketball, which no longer has the icons of Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, or Michael Jordan manning the court, seems to have struggled to find a consistent theme.

It is basketball provides possibly the most instructive example of the problem. The NBA was in a state of disrepair in the 1970’s, suffering – fairly or not – an image of a drug-addled league of limited appeal. It was, for lack of a better term, no more than a “niche” sport. Earvin Johnson and Larry Bird entered the league in 1979 and rescued the league from decline. They were succeeded by Michael Jordan, whose unique gifts were just what the NBA needed to achieve new heights. The talents of Commissioner David Stern can’t be underestimated here, either, but the point is that the NBA was able to put a face on its product (or in this case, “faces”).

But the matter isn’t quite that simple, and this is what I think is the problem facing the NHL and the matter of Sidney Crosby. Johnson, Bird, and Jordan were three of the greatest players in the history of the NBA. They largely defined the league for two decades. But despite their respective talents, the quality they had in common was that they won. Had their teams not won 14 titles over a period of 17 seasons in which at least one of them played, none would be revered to the extent they are today, and the league likely never would have returned to the status it enjoys today.

And that is where Mr. Crosby enters. At the moment, to paraphrase McGuire, “it’s all about Sidney Crosby.” Quite a burden for a 19-year old to bear. But he’s been training for it since he was in his early teens, much as Wayne Gretzky did in his early years.

This is different. When Gretzky entered the league, it was a “major” league in name only, and it was before the advent of free agency, multi-million dollar player contracts, billion-dollar network contracts, and the Internet. The manner in which the league, its media partners, and its marketing strategy have invested in the product named “Crosby” has the effect of putting all of their respective eggs into one basket.

It’s quite a gamble, because as we’ve noted, Johnson, Bird and Jordan won . . . often. And, they had help. Michael Jordan never won an NBA championship without Scottie Pippen at his side. Larry Bird had Kevin McHale and Robert Parrish and others. Magic Johnson had Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and James Worthy. Hockey is even less-forgiving to the “star” culture than basketball. Wayne Gretzky had Mark Messier and Jari Kurri, among others, and never won a Cup after leaving Edmonton. Mario Lemieux had Ron Francis, Kevin Stevens, and a young Jaromir Jagr (Jagr, it should be noted, didn’t have that support structure as he matured, and he has no Cups since those early Penguin days). And, hockey puts a premium on the contributions of all players up and down the bench – more so than perhaps any other major team sport.

The Crosby Strategy works only if Crosby wins. But hockey isn’t a “star-centric” sport any more than the other major team sports are or, in this instance, as much as the NHL might want it to be. It is a sport that needs contributions from the unsung, from the player who will put himself in harm’s way in front of the net to be there when the opportunity presents itself to bang home a goal from close range, from the player who will sacrifice himself to get in the way of a 100-mile-an-hour slap shot, from the player who will take a hit for the team to make a play. These are the little plays that make hockey what it is, the kinds that contribute as much to winning as a guy sliding on his knees to deflect the puck into the net and be the subject of highlight clips all over North America.

The NHL has a lot of marketing capital invested in Sidney Crosby. But being supremely skilled isn’t enough. Crosby had that highlight clip goal against Tampa Bay last week when he slid on his knees to convert a pass from Mark Recchi.

The Penguins lost the game. Is there a moral in that?

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Panthers

No points tonight . . .



. . . and a good thing that the league doesn’t subtract points for some performances, too.

The mysterious gas-like odor that settled over Manhattan last week moved into south Florida this evening, and it was shrouded in eagle logos. The Caps were pasted, 7-3, by the Florida Panthers. How bad was it? Let’s go by the numbers . . .

54 . . . No Caps team has ever given up more shots on goal on the road (they gave up 54 in a 7-5 loss to Philadelphia, December 19, 1975).

27 . . . only once in club history has an opponent registered more shots on goal than the 27 the Panthers had in the second period last night (28 on October, 20, 2005 against . . . yup, Florida)

2 . . . last night was the first time in 271 career games that defenseman Jay Bouwmeester scored two goals. He was +4, too.

9 . . . Stephen Weiss had more shots on goal himself than the Caps had in any single period (he had a hat trick for good measure).

17 . . . the Caps registered their fewest number of shots since October 28, 2005 (14, in a 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay).

.878 . . . that was the best save percentage among the three goaltenders playing this game. Congratulations, Olaf Kolzig . . . trouble is, it came on 41 shots (in 40 minutes), and he gave up five goals.

In a way, it was a very odd game. You give up seven goals, you would think certain specific players might have been victimized. Not in this case. No Cap was worse than -2, but 12 of 18 skaters were on the minus side of the ledger. Any argument that this player (Lawrence Nycholat) or that player (Brian Sutherby) was especially poor in this game really doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. That’s not to say they played well – they didn’t. It’s just that the whole team didn’t bother to show up. If anything, Olaf Kolzig was the best Cap on the ice (talk about damning with faint praise…). Goalies have to make the first stop, and Kolzig sure did make a lot of those. But the Caps never put themselves in a position to clear away the trash. Too many defensemen gave away position or were facing in the wrong direction; too many forwards just didn’t put in the effort to support the defense. Kolzig was left to fend for himself to the tune of better than a shot on goal per minute. If one totals the shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by the Caps, the sum – 80 – is a reflection of the effort put forth by the Caps last night.

OK, enough of that . . . no, really . . . enough, already. This is the kind of thing that happens from time to time to a young team still feeling its way along. From my seat, the fear was that in the stretch of games between the holidays and the All-Star break, the Caps would have their mettle tested, not so much in terms of their skill, but in their ability to focus and put forth a consistent effort from night to night. That stretch is the dark void of the schedule – too early to focus attention on a playoff push, and the novelty of the beginning of the season has worn off. These are the games that a club has to grind out. At the moment, the Caps are somewhat lacking in their performance, and it is showing up on defense – 37 goals allowed in the 10 games since Christmas.

Had the Caps won this game, it would not have been unexpected or surprising. That’s what we said in the gameday. Well, losing isn’t necessarily surprising, either. Not when one considers that this is still a team lacking experience. But at the moment, what comes to mind watching this team is an exchange in the movie, “Bull Durham,” between Manager Joe “Skip” Riggins (Trey Wilson) and coach Larry Hockett (Robert Wuhl) in the midst of a losing streak. You know the one . . .

Skip: You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

Larry: Lollygaggers!

Skip: Lollygaggers.

Geez, Donald...do we really suck that bad out there?

(Photo by Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images)

Happy Hockey Day!!!

It's "Hockey Day in Canada" . . . something that can, and should be celebrated by fans all over North America.

Montreal at Ottawa
Vancouver at Toronto
Edmonton at Calgary

Those are the headliners for the day's festivities, but there are 11 other contests today and tonight, including the return of the NHL on NBC. But celebrate this great sport in your own way . . .

-- Wear a helmet to the 7-11 when you get your morning coffee
-- Ask everyone you meet, "nice day, eh?"
-- Tell the wife and kids, "No oh-fense, but I'm going oot for a six-pack of Labatt's so I can watch 'Hockey Day in Canada'."
-- Throw open the window and shout to no one in particular, "Bobby GOOOOOOOOOOOOOULD!!!"

It's Hockey Day . . . have a great one!

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, January 13th

Tipping point…

That is a term that refers to the point in time at which something unique becomes commonplace. Here, it refers to a hockey team that takes its place among those in the upper echelon that can skate into an opponent’s building – an inferior opponent in this case – and skate off with a win, and not have it considered extraordinary.

That’s when a team that has struggled can be thought of as having taken the next step toward competitiveness.

The Caps find themselves in that position tonight, where most of the factors would appear in their favor as they visit the Florida Panthers . . .

-- They have a four-point lead in the standings and two games in hand
-- They face a team that has won only two of 14 games within the division this year
-- They’ve won three of their last four; Florida is 1-2-2 in their last five
-- They’ve won the previous two contests this year by a combined 9-3 margin
-- Washington comes into the game with two hot players – Alexander Semin is 7-2-9 in his last four games, Alexander Ovechkin is 3-8-11 in his last five.
-- Washington is 8-8-4 on the road this year, a far cry from last year’s 13-23-5.
-- Florida will be facing a resurgent Capitals offense without one of their top defenders; Branislav Mezei is out indefinitely with a shoulder injury

A win would be neither unexpected, nor surprising.

Of course, there is an opponent – one that on their home ice requires respect. Florida has a hot player of their own. Olli Jokinen has five goals in his last two games, including a hat trick in the face of some kid from Nova Scotia (shown here in an earlier contest about to execute an inward one-and-half with a twist) last Wednesday. It constitutes an awakening from something of a season-long slumber for Jokinen, who managed 16 goals in his first 44 games. A respectable total, but not necessarily outstanding.

In Florida’s 1-2-2 stretch over their last five games, they’ve managed six goals from Jokinen and 11 from the rest of the club. What they’ve managed is balance (to put the best spin on it). Those 11 goals were scored by ten different players, Rostislav Olesz the only player with two. The problem has been more at the other end of the ice, where the Panthers have yielded 20 goals in their last five games, including six in 13 shots (one an empty netter) in a disaster of a third period in their last game, a 6-4 loss to Carolina.

Florida’s special teams in the last five games have been good and bad. The good? They’ve killed 20 of 23 shorthanded situations (87.0 percent) and had a shorthanded goal that allowed them to steal a point in Vancouver. The bad? Their power play was unremarkable at 17.7 percent. The key was that the Panthers found themselves shorthanded six more times than their opponents. Overall, though, the problems Florida is having are matters of even-strength play.

The oddest numbers in all of those compiled by Florida in the last five games involves their scoring by period. Of the 17 goals they’ve scored, 10 were scored in the third period. Of the 20 they’ve given up, 13 were given up in the third period (including those six by Carolina). Stay tuned . . . the third period could be very entertaining tonight, if fire wagon hockey is your thing.

Florida is the very picture of mediocrity on home ice, statistically . . . 14th in goals scored, 17th in goals against, 14th in power play conversions, 18th in penalty killing. However, they are 11-8-2 at home, 4-0-1 in their last five home contests.

This is a club that can rise up and bite a visitor right in the Koho.

On the other side of the ice, the Caps’ 3-1-0 run in their last four included outscoring their opponents 18-10. That five of those ten in the last game (against Tampa) was a reflection of uninspired defense and attention in their own zone, as well as an off-night from Olaf Kolzig in goal (one would expect Brent Johnson to get an opportunity this evening, especially in light of his 4-2-0, 1.65, .946 career record against Florida). What was especially odd – and reflective of the inattentiveness to their own end – was that the Tampa game was the only one in the last four in which the Caps did not yield a power play goal.

The Caps’ power play came to life in the last four – 5 for 19 (26.3 percent) – three of the goals coming from the stick of Alexander Semin. The Caps have at least one power play marker in each of the games in this 3-1-0 stretch.

If there are players to watch, The Peerless would pay some attention to . . .

-- Nathan Horton. He has only one goal and three points in his last seven games. Olli Jokinen has carried the mail for the Panthers lately and could use some help. Watch to see if Horton steps up.

-- Dainius Zubrus. He’s 11-12-23, +9 in his career against Florida and is 2-1-3 in his two games this year. The Alexes have borne the goal-scoring burden lately (10 of the 18 scored in the last four games), and Zubrus has only four in his last 23 games. But, he gave some indications of emerging from that slump with two against Montreal on January 4th.

The Caps can and should win here. That they will is of no surprise . . .

Caps 4 – Panthers 2