A Tale of Two Deals

Let us consider this morning a tale of two players, of two deals, of two very different times...

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

In July 2001, the Washington Capitals had recently completed another solid regular season, followed by – again – a gut-wrenching loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup playoffs. On the 11th day of that month, when the deal was announced to bring Jaromir Jagr to Washington and the wild cheering in its aftermath subsided, the prevailing view was that Jagr would be the last, best piece of the puzzle to bring a Cup to Washington. The other pieces were in place – a solid goalie (Olaf Kolzig), a sniper to be the finisher to Jagr’s playmaking skills (Peter Bondra), a power play quarterback who would complement Jagr’s skills in that facet of the game (Sergei Gonchar), and a solid defense to balance the upgrade in offense thought to be so desperately needed – and addressed in the Jagr trade.

In January 2008, the mood is different…the Caps are in the midst of another also-ran season, made more disappointing by the promise of playoffs swirling about the club in September. While improving, they remained in the bottom half of the standings, only recently escaping the league’s cellar. What’s more, the cornerstone of the club’s attempts at rebuilding – Alexander Ovechkin – is the subject of wild speculation of his whereabouts come the fall and whether or not a city such as Washington even “deserves” such a talent.

It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…

Dealing for Jagr was a matter of “branding” the club, in the vernacular of the time. With the addition of the superstar, the Caps would make a statement that they were: first, serious about competing with the Detroits, New Jerseys, and Colorados of the hockey world; and second, that they would be a serious player for talent to achieve those ends. The logic was sound…the results, disastrous.

The increasing frequency and volume as to the fate of Ovechkin, on the other hand, created its own echo chamber. The expected suspects – Larry Brooks, Eklund, Canadian media – weighed in with almost desperate scenarios (really, Carey Price is off the table in any trade talk concerning Ovechkin?...Ovechkin to Nashville?). As the conversation became more hyperbolic in its character, it leapt from the quasi-serious (the “deal” with the Los Angeles Kings at least had a whiff of seriousness in the thought put into it) to the silly, to the outright foolish (go ahead…try, try very hard to picture Ovechkin with a Predator logo on his chest).

It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...

When Jagr was acquired, the Caps – and their fans – hardly knew how to act. Unlike Pittsburgh, from whence Jagr came, Washington had not seen a star of Jagr’s caliber in his prime, certainly in hockey and arguably in any of the major team sports. Delirious with joy, there was a belief surrounding the club that this was the final, missing piece, obtained for a pittance.

In January 2008, pounded by years of disappointment, mediocrity, and – more recently – lottery-pick-inducing ineptitude on the ice, fans might be excused for harboring the spark of a thought that Ovechkin would leave the club and find himself perhaps wearing the bleu, blanc et rouge, instead of the red, white and blue. Assurances from club management that they expected Ovechkin to be a Cap for a long, long time might have been offered in good faith, but fans might not have been of a mind to believe the assurances unconditionally…the club had too long a history of disappointing them.

It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness...

2001-2002 was going to be The Year. Kolzig was only two years removed from a Vezina Trophy, Bondra had just posted a 45-goal season (halting a two-year slide in goal production) during which he led the league in power-play goals, Adam Oates was coming off a 69-assist season (would he get a hundred playing with Jagr?), Gonchar was coming off what at the time was a career year for him in goals-assists-points, they had the Dahlen-Halpern-Konowalchuk line to give opponents fits. At no point in the history of the franchise did things seem brighter.

When New Year’s Day 2008 dawned in Washington, the Caps had been losers of 180 of their previous 275 games and hadn’t been within a couple of time zones of the playoffs. At least the 1974-1975 club – the one that set a galactic, never-to-be-eclipsed record for ineptitude – had the charm of being record-settingly bad with the comic relief that attends such achievement. The Caps of the early 21st century inspired grumbles at best, empty seats and speculation as to relocation at worst. The only thing that made the club worth watching, frankly, was Ovechkin and his one-of-a-kind-until-the-next-one nights of goal scoring, hits, and enthusiasm.

It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...

In the summer of 2001, fans were looking at city maps, plotting where might be the best place to camp out for the parade after the Caps won the Cup…In the fall of 2007, fans were thinking, “is Alex going to be here?...are we going to even have a hockey club in a few years?

We had everything before us, we had nothing before us...

In the summer of 2001, the Caps would exact their revenge for a decade of disappointments at the hands of the Penguins, using their home-grown star as the dagger. In January 2008, the Penguins had signed their own bright star to a five-year deal and were embarking on a winning streak that stood at eight games, and counting, lifting them to the third best record in the Eastern Conference…the Caps were mired in 13th place with five clubs to climb over just to make the playoff mix.

We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…

In 2001, Caps fans were going to be rewarded for years of suffering in the purgatory of disappointment. The rapture was upon them, and Jagr would deliver them to the promised land. In 2008, they were heading for the exits, last in the NHL in attendance.

In short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only...

There will be comparisons between the Jagr deal (more the contract extension he signed in the wake of that trade – eight years (including an option year) for $88 million) and the Ovechkin contract extension. Like all comparisons, they will be imperfect…

Jagr was brought in, Ovechkin is home-grown. Jagr could only win hearts in the long term if he delivered on the promise his acquisition entailed – a Stanley Cup. When he didn’t, and more to the point, when the Caps foundered, the bloom was off that rose quickly. By the time he left in a trade with the Rangers, no one was sorry to see him go. Ovechkin is “one of us.” He is a Cap – even at this point in his young career perhaps the best “home grown” Cap in the franchise’s history (with apologies to fans of Peter Bondra and those of Scott Stevens, who we do not include here since his best years came after his departure). What’s more, Jagr’s personality – at times alternately moody, distant, and surly – worked against him, while Ovechkin’s – enthusiastic, lacking inhibition on or off the ice, personable – endears him that much more to fans.

Jagr was the last piece, Ovechkin the first. Jagr came into a club with a personality, one that might have been described as a “lunch pail” mind set. It was the personality of the franchise since Rod Langway was acquired in the early 1980’s. Being more of the creative, intuitive, free-wheeling sort in his playing style, Jagr did not mesh easily with his on-board teammates, and that made for ill-feelings as time wore on, and Jagr and his teammates found themselves on different pages of the songbook. Ovechkin was the asset around which the club would be built. As the first overall pick in 2004 – at the dawn of the rebuild – he was the first piece applied to a canvas around which the rest of the work could be completed. The task of finding complementary assets is easier if the cornerstone is laid first than if one tries to set it into an existing structure.

There is also the matter of “money” versus “term.” Large signings of the sort made with Jagr were not rare in sports in 2001, even in hockey (several players were making, when adjusted for inflation, more than Ovechkin will make in any year under this deal). What made Jagr’s contract extension different was the term – seven years and an option. That kind of commitment was not common in sports at the time, certainly not in hockey. By 2008, though, long terms deals – while not common – are not rare, either. Alex Rodriguez has signed two ten-year deals in his baseball career. Rick DiPietro signed a 15-year deal with the New York Islanders, and several free agents of this past summer signed long (greater than five years) deals with NHL clubs. Ovechkin’s deal is the first nine-figure contract in NHL history, and that will generate some buzz, and the 13 years will add some to it. But this is the environment in which sports and hockey exists these days.

Ultimately, as the wise man – I think it was me – said, “where you stand depends on where you sit.” There will be those (all those commentators clamoring for Ovechkin to be rescued from the backwater of Washington, primarily) who will view this as merely a money grab by Ovechkin. Caps fans, on the other hand, will exhibit short memories and go giddy over the signing (maybe we can have a celebration at Dulles Airport). But this has a different “feel” than the Jagr contract. Because of the run-up to the Jagr trade – knowing that Pittsburgh was selling off assets it could not afford to sign in the long term, that it was unlikely Jagr could be accommodated there, that Jagr was going to be the jewel of the free agency class the following year – money was the issue that seemed at the bottom of the matter. And behind that, the idea that Jagr held most of the cards (without the extension or a trade, he could walk for nothing the following year).

With Ovechkin, the matter is turned sideways. The Caps always had the last word in this. They could sign him, they could wait for offer sheets to be tendered, they could match, they could let him walk for draft picks. Ovechkin could exert influence, but not necessarily pressure. The Caps held most of the cards in this instance.

But when all is said and done, the best take on the matter probably comes from Ovechkin, himself. In his comments following his signing, he said, “Hockey is my life, and money is money. ... If you think about money, you stop playing hockey." Coming from another, it might have had the tinny sound of a rehearsed sports cliché. But with Ovechkin, who is nothing if not candid, it rings like crystal.

And so, with that, we go from the beginning to the end of this tale, and to what Caps fans hopes the signing means…many years of competing for Stanley Cups and the memories those years will leave to look back upon…

"It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known."

Stepping Up

Well, the six-and-fifty-four (not to mention my math in the last post) was wrong...

...was it ever.

The new report on the Ovechkin signing is 13 years and $124 million. That qualifies as one helluva thunderclap rolling across the hockey landscape. And for a club that had been averse to the big free agent signing, it is a case of really stepping up to the plate and swatting one out of the ballpark.

With an appreciation for the dramatic flair -- drawing out the announcement and teasing fans with a statement that the original reports on the deal were wrong -- Ted Leonsis announced the mega-deal at a "meet-the-team" function last night at Verizon Center.

Speaking of the deal, Leonsis said, "I'm a risk-taker. And if you're going to make a long-term investment, who else would you do it with?"

It's "risk-taking," to be sure, but there is another element to this, too. It's putting one's money where one's mouth is. Ted has said all the right words about what he thinks the state of the league is and its prospects for improvement in the business side of the sport. In signing Ovechkin to this long a term and this high an average salary, he's gone past words into concrete actions, banking on the league to continue its growth and thus making the $10 million he will pay in each of the last seven years of the deal a bargain for the club.

Is it a "good" deal? There will be no shortage of commentary on that subject in the days to come, although that's the kind of thing that is only going to be known in retrospect. It is a risk, as Ted suggested, but for stepping up like this and backing up his talk on the league's prospects with a signing of this magnitude, we think Ted and the club deserve a lot of respect.

Free at last, free at last...thank God Almighty, we are free at last...Ovechkin will stay.

There are reports emerging that Alexander Ovechkin has signed a contract extension with the Washington Capitals. RDS.ca and TSN.ca report that the deal is for six years and $54 milion. The team at On Frozen Blog has more.

If true, the short term benefit is a end to the drum beat of "Alex shouldn't play in Washington" talk. That is worth the good news of the signing on its own merits. It also removes a potential distraction from a club that doesn't need one as it tries to climb the standings on the heels of recent success.

In the mid term, it will turn attention to the status of Mike Green, who is also a restricted free agent at the end of this season, and whose signing is more problematic in that one can more readily imagine scenarios in which an offer sheet would not be matched. That's not to say it is likely -- we think it unlikely -- but one can imagine more plausible scenarios that could unfold to carry Green to another city.

In the long term, the signing might be a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that, if reports are true, the cap hit is less than Ovechkin might have commanded in a bidding situation where one need only have one of 29 other teams offer a max contract to make the lives of the Caps management more difficult. It is more than that for which Sidney Crosby signed, which will irk purists and Crosby fans, but does provide the Caps some additional wiggle room in payroll, if they choose to use it.

On the other hand, the deal -- reportedly -- is for six years, expiring at the end of the 2012-2013 season, at which time Ovechkin will be a few months shy of his 28th birthday. Absent being spirited away by aliens, Ovechkin would be entering the prime of his career (isn't that a scary thought) and would have the world of hockey at his feet without the encumbrance of "restricted" before the term, "free agent." In this sense, the term of the deal becomes the window in which the Caps have an opportunity to build a consistent contender and to win a Stanley Cup. In that sense, the signing has just made the job of the Caps to build that contender a bit more urgent.

But those are all distant clouds -- ones to be mindful of, but not so much so as to detract from the bright sunny day before Caps fans. And a sunny, sunny day it is. Ovechkin will stay.

A TWO point night...Caps 2 - Avalanche 1

Two five game stretches, two five-game tests. The five-game stretch from December 27^th through January 5^th was a test of the state of the Capitals’ progress under coach Bruce Bourdreau, whether the club could compete against quality teams. All five teams in that stretch were in the top-eight in the East. The Caps passed that test, going 3-1-1.

The second five game stretch started tonight and represents a test of will – whether in this five-game home stand the Caps are now the kind of team that can impose their will on an opponent and leave visitors unfulfilled. The first game of this test was a good one for the Caps. A depleted Colorado Avalanche team came to Verizon Center on the heels of a 1-0 loss to Detroit, and the Caps played with the kind of tempo that was meant to take what was left in their legs away from the Avalanche.

The result was a 2-1 win for the home team, the score hardly indicative of the pace of the game for most of the 60 minutes.

Scoreless through two periods of up-and-down-with-no-result hockey, the Caps broke through in the third on the sticks of the unlikeliest of producers. Matt Bradley collected the puck off a faceoff in the Avalanche zone and circled wide into the left wing corner. He backhanded a pass to Brooks Laich at the inside edge of the left wing circle. Laich one timed the puck, finding the back of the net past Colorado goalie Jose Theodore’s blocker on the far side. Laich was credited with the goal, but the decision was changed to credit Donald Brashear with the marker, he being at the top of the crease in an effort to screen Theodore and deflecting the puck on its way by.

The Caps lengthened the lead with just under four minutes to go when Boyd Gordon chipped the puck out of the Caps’ end to David Steckel skating up the right wing. Quintin Laing jumped into the play, and as Steckel was closing on the Colorado net he tried to center Laing, who had a half-step on defenseman Lyle Cumiskey. The puck never made it to Laing, though, as it deflected off Cumiskey and behind Theodore, who was sliding across in anticipation of Laing’s attempt.

Colorado spoiled Caps’ goalie Olaf Kolzig’s shutout bid when Marek Svatos and Wojtek Wolski executed a slow-developing give-and-go that left Svatos in alone on Kolzig. Svatos roofed the puck over Kolzig’s glove, and one might have been excused for thinking, “you guys sure aren’t going to make things easy on yourselves, are you?”

But Kolzig, who hasn’t stolen a lot of games this year, robbed Colorado of everything but their fillings, capping a superb effort by flashing a pad out of nowhere to deny Tyler Arnason on a spin-around drive from the slot with 35 seconds left, and then denying Arnason once more with 14 seconds left when he was Arnason was allowed to walk through a seam along the right wing circle for a clear shot.

For the Caps, this was a case of the unsungs stepping into the spotlight:

- Quintin Laing hurling his body in front of successive shots when the game was in the balance in the third period.

- Boyd Gordon following Laing’s lead and sliding in front of a shot late, coming up limping, but not bad enough to keep him from pursuing the play in the Caps’ end.

- Steve Eminger playing a “keep-it-simple” game and exacting more than a pound of flesh with four big hits and – yes – a blocked shot.

- Brooks Laich continuing a string of solid games with an assist (on the goal he didn’t get), three hits, and…three blocked shots.

- Matt Bradley, who – if he didn’t get a Gordie Howe hat trick – managed a hat trick of some kind…an assist, a fight, and winning the only draw he took.

It was an odd game in this respect…if you consider the “skill” guys to be Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Michael Nylander, Nicklas Backstrom, and Viktor Kozlov, they combined for 11 shots, no goals, no assists, and -2.

And yet, the Caps won.

Why?...they paid a price to win. 13 skaters had hits (25 total, to 19 for Colorado), ten had blocked shots (18 total, to 14 for Colorado). They played the kind of game they needed to play against a team that played the night before – they put pressure on them early, bottling them up in their own zone. Then, they punished them when they did try to move the puck.

The Caps probably would have won this game more comfortably but for an excellent performance by Theodore, who denied Laich and Semin on one-on-none situations, denied Boyd Gordon on a fine chance when Gordon had a step on the Avalanche defenseman. Ovechkin rang the puck off the post twice, for good measure.

It was a low scoring game, but not a “low chances” game. There were equal measures fine goaltending and luck that some pucks didn’t find the net when the goalies were in vulnerable positions

It would be hard to find poor performances in this one for the Caps. Kozlov had another one of those nights when he looks like he’s skating around over streches without a clear purpose. And Alexander Semin just hasn’t found a comfort zone this season. Except for the chance denied by Theodore, he was uncertain in handling the puck and seemed rather disinclined to shoot the puck.

The defensemen, to a man, had solid games. Colorado played a defense that looked “rope-a-dopish,” allowing Mike Green to skate the puck into high scoring potential areas often. Jeff Schultz avoided the once-a-game brain spasm that has crept into his game lately and had just a good, solid game. Shaone Morrisonn did a splendid job playing cover for Green’s rushes. Milan Jurcina looked more like the Jurcina of last year, stopping Colorado players in their tracks. Eminger got some more minutes tonight, and he took advantage of the opportunity.

It was, even if the score doesn’t suggest it, a dominating performance by the Caps in terms of controlling tempo and territory. It was a good test to start this five-game test. The trick will be to carry this over to the game against the Flyers on Sunday, who will be another team on the back-end of a back-to-back when they visit Verizon Center.

But for now, this one should be a nice birthday present for the coach and The Big Guy. Happy birthday, Bruce and Ted.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Avalanche, January 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Iowa, Schmyoah…Obama, Schmobama…Hillary, Schmillary…Huckabee, Schmuckabee...there is one, and only one issue on the minds of the public…

WHERE IS ALEX GOING?

We have a new entry in the sweepstakes…Nashville.*

The Peerless has invited the cream of the punditocracy take a break from mundane election matters to prognosticate on the important issue of where Alex will be playing next year.

George Will: "Well, the great American essayist H. L. Mencken said that, ‘it is even harder for the average ape to believe that he has descended from man,’ and to think that Ovechkin is going to play anywhere but in Washington is to lend credence to Mencken’s sentiment.”

Bill O’Reilly: "George, where do you find these quotes?”

GW: “Most of them, I just make up…it’s not like any of you people do any fact checking.”

BO’R: “Well look…as usual, you point headed types just over-think and over-complicate and over-do these kinds of things…follow the money. Ovechkin is going to end up with whatever team offers him the most money, and if you think otherwise, you’re probably a namby-pamby bleeding heart Clinton lover.”

Keith Olbermann: “You…you…you IDIOT! You and your cabal of conservative conspiracists! Always the money. You’d think all this fine young man was about was the money. He’s going to play in Canada…you conservatives won’t rest until you’ve driven him out. You’ve made this country a mess, and of course…Ovechkin is – wink wink – 'Russian.' You guys are still fighting the Cold War, and…”

George Stephanopoulos: “Keith, calm down, you’re makeup is going to melt. We all know that Ovechkin is going to consider all the offers that come his way, but being a good son, he’ll do what Mama – who is acting as his agent – thinks best. And then he’ll end up playing in Washington, unless he doesn’t.”

GW: “George, have you ever taken a position on anything?”

GS: “I take many positions, George, sometimes on the same issue. It’s called ‘having an open mind.'”

BO’R: “Typical wishy-washy liberal crap.”

KO: “Why don’t you take your size-14 feet and CRAM THEM UP YOUR TIGHT –

GS: “guys, guys…let’s be civil.”

GW: "Mencken said it best…'Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.'”

BO’R: “you get a two-for-one coupon at Borders for a Mencken collection, George?”

GS: “can we get back to the subject…”

BO’R: “shut up, ya dwarf…”

KO: “Pick on somebody your own size, Jethro…”

GW: “The writer Elliott Hubbard once said, ‘If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost; you can still call him vile names.’”

[all]: “SHUT UP!!!”

We’ll let the boys continue their fun…we have a game tonight. Colorado comes into this game with virtually an identical record (22-17-3) to that which they had on this date last year (21-18-2). The difference is that while last year they came into January 9th riding a three game winning streak, they will enter tonight’s game as losers of five of their last six, including a 1-0 loss to their archrival Red Wings in Detroit last night. While the Avalanche has lost two games in this stretch to the Red Wings, they’ve also lost three to Phoenix (twice, once in overtime) and Los Angeles, both clubs behind Colorado in the standings. Here are the particulars about Colorado’s performance during this slump:

Record: 1-4-1
Goals for/against: 10-18
Power play: 0-17 (0.0 percent)
Penalty killing: 13-17 (76.5 percent)

That power play is giving the Avalanche fits. They are three for their last 44 chances (6.8 percent) since going three-for-six in a 9-5 win against St. Louis on December 9th. In fact, since that night, the Avalanche light has gone out on offense. 28 goals in their last 14 games.

Part of the drought is having lost Joe Sakic to surgery for a sports hernia (last played on November 30th) and Ryan Smyth to a fractured ankle (last played on December 31st). But there are other factors at play, too:

Paul Stastny, who started the season like a house a’fire (15-26-41, +14 in his first 33 games), is 0-3-3, -5 in his last nine games.

Milan Hejduk is without a point and a -5 in his last seven games.

Andrew Brunette is 0-2-2, -1 in his last six.

…these are the top three active scorers for the Avs this season.

Jose Theodore has manned the nets for the last two games, and while he’s had a lackluster season so far (8-9-1, 2.68, .895), he’s done his part in these two games, stopping 47 of 49 shots and splitting the two decisions. Since Theodore played last night in the 1-0 loss in Detroit, it is entirely likely that Peter Budaj will get the nod tonight. Budaj has slightly better numbers than Theodore in the goals against and save percentage departments (2.63, .901), but he does have a better win-loss record (14-8-2). As if a mirror image to Theodore’s play of late, Budaj is 0-2-1 in his last three decisions, with a 2.97 GAA and .892 save percentage.

The Caps are banged up. Colorado probably has bigger guns out in Sakic and Smyth, but the Caps make up for it in quantity. Goaltender Brent Johnson is nursing a knee injury, defensemen Tom Poti and Brian Pothier are both dealing with the dreaded “upper body injury, Alexander Semin has a dented butt, and Chris Clark has a groin injury. Michael Nylander is not healthy, either.

The Caps are 4-1-1 in their last six outings, but it will be tough to add to that in light of the medical reports. They’ve been doing it by racing up and down the ice, outscoring opponents 25-21 (the loss in regulation coming in the game where they didn’t score any goals, a 2-0 loss to Boston).

When healthy (or at least not in a slump such as that in which they now find themselves), Colorado is a club that can keep up – they are tied with the Caps and the Penguins in goals-per-game (2.79), but they’ve been better in keeping the puck out of the net (2.81 goals-against-per-game to 3.01 for the Caps). It might be another of those high-scoring contests the Caps have had lately, which means…

Caps 5 – Avalanche 4


* Thanks to Hooks Orpik at The Sweater Ted for pointing that out to us (even if it was a link to Eklund)…TST is a Penguins blog, but unlike the usual article of this specie, it’s a good one. You should check it out.

NHL All-Star Starters Announced

The NHL released the names of the starters to the All-Star Game to be played in Atlanta on January 27th. Here they are:

Eastern Conference:

F - Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh
F - Daniel Alfredsson, Ottawa
F - Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay
D - Andrei Markov, Montreal
D - Zdeno Chara, Boston
G - Martin Brodeur, New Jersey

Western Conference:

F - Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit
F - Pavel Datsyuk - Detroit
F - Jarome Iginla, Calgary
D - Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit
D - Dion Phaneuf, Calgary
G - Roberto Luongo, Vancouver

Caps fans will note that Alexander Ovechkin is not on the Eastern Conference roster of starters. This is not surprising, and frankly isn't that big a deal.

Starters are selected by fan vote. And while hockey fans are just as intelligent as fans of other sports, they are probably just as parochial. Look at the cities from which the starters hail. These are cities where hockey is followed closely, and in the case of Crosby it is a matter of his iconic position in the sport that transcends geography (how could it be otherwise?...the league markets him 24/7). Looked at another way -- as a function of total attendance -- the three teams represented in the Western Conference have the top three overall (home and road) attendance averages in the Western Conference. Fans pay attention to these clubs.

Ovechkin will appear in the All-Star game. So will Ilya Kovalchuk and Dany Heatley, either of whom also have a case that could be made for their selection as a starter among the forwards for the East.

The All-Star game is a "fans" game. Since they pay the freight in the NHL by buying tickets and snatching up merchandise, I fail to see a problem with their picking who they want to start this mid-season exhibition. That Ovechkin failed to garner enough votes to merit a starting position is more a reflection of the state of the Capitals -- and their inability to draw much interest (15th in home attendance in the East, 14th in overall attendance) -- than it is a reflection of Ovechkin's stature as a player or as a celebrity in the league.

Ovechkin isn't a starter, but he'll be there. I suspect he'll be just as entertaining to watch as if he'd been selected a starter.

The Peerless' First Half Awards

OK, so here we are at just about the half-way point in the 2007-2008 season. And what would the half-way point be without some half-baked awards from some half-assed blogger who is about half-way in the bag.

So...without further ado...

Calder Trophy: given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League.

Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks. Kane leads all rookies in assists and total scoring. Since weathering a four-game scoreless streak in November, he has been held off the scoresheet only five times in 17 games. He is currently on a six-game points streak (1-6-7, even).

Runners up: Nicklas Backstrom, Washington; Jonathan Toews, Chicago

The Ray Babbitt Award: given to the rookie selected as the most proficient in one game-deciding skill that has nothing to do with the competition of a hockey game in the National Hockey League.

Sam Gagner, Edmonton Oilers. Gagner is tied for the league lead in shootout goals and leads the league in those of the game-deciding variety (5). Edmonton has won 18 games this year, 11 of them via the shootout.

**********

Selke Trophy: given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.

Ryan Johnson, St. Louis Blues. Let’s think imaginatively (i.e., not recycling the same old names)…St. Louis is a much improved team. Why? Part of it is that they are seventh in the league in goals against average, fourth in penalty killing, and 11^th in 5-on-5 efficiency. Think that’s entirely a product of Manny Legace? Johnson is sixth in the league in short-handed ice time on a team that is fourth in the league in penalty killing.

Runners up: Samuel Pahlsson, Anaheim; John Madden, New Jersey

Sulky Trophy: given to the player who best excels at causing fans to sulk day after day over his defensive performance.

Steve McCarthy, Atlanta Thrashers. -18 in 28 games. The “good” news?...he hasn’t had a minus game in any of his last four. The “bad” news?...he’s had one – count ‘em, one – plus game this season.

**********

Adams Trophy: presented by the National Hockey League Broadcasters' Association to the NHL coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success.

Andy Murray, St. Louis Blues. The Blues have realized a 14-point improvement over this time last year with a team that does not have a lot of high-end talent.

Runners up: Denis Savard, Chicago; Bruce Boudreau, Washington

Addams Trophy: presented to the NHL coach adjudged to be so frightening behind the bench as to scare small children and Darren Pang.

John Tortorella, Tampa Bay Lightning. OK…go look up “gruff” in the dictionary. We’ll wait a moment…you saw Tortorella’s picture there, right? There isn’t a player he won’t throw under the bus. We’re thinking that Lightning bus has spent more time on the rack at Meineke getting the undercarriage checked than it has in service, given the performance of the Lightning this year and the number of bodies that might have found their way to the pavement.

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Norris Trophy: given to the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.

Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings. Yeah, it’s easy to pick Slick Nick, but he leads all defensemen in scoring; he leads in plus-minus, he’s second in ice time. What more does one want?

Runners-up: Sergei Zubov, Dallas; Zdeno Chara, Boston

Chuck Norris Trophy: given to the player who demonstrates an orneriness and propensity for pugilism as to make men cringe and women (or Don Cherry) swoon, despite starring in a bad production.

Daniel Carcillo, Phoenix Coyotes. “Does not work or play well with others”…that had to be in bold on his report card as a child. 444 total playing minutes, 172 penalty minutes, 10 fighting majors, four misconducts, two game misconducts, and he maimed the partridge in the pear tree.

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Vezina Trophy: given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.

Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks. If there is any lingering doubt over who is the best goalie in the NHL, it should have evaporated in the wake of Luongo’s first half. Second in goals-against average, third in save percentage, and doing it for a team that does not generate a lot of offense (20^th in goals/game). He is not the head-and-shoulders winner, but he is the clear winner of the first half.

Runners up: Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose; Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers

Ve-sieve-ina Trophy: given to the goalkeeper most likely to inspire creative use of profanity by fans and coaches alike.

Andrew Raycroft, Toronto Maple Leafs. 2-6-5, 3.79, .878. Given how grouchy Leafs fans can be, he might be the only goalie in the league who wears his pads home from the rink out of self-defense.

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Pearson Trophy: presented annually to the "most outstanding player" in the NHL.

Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning. In the midst of what is becoming a Titanic season for the Lightning (like the ship…not the adjective), Lecavalier has continued and built upon his outstanding performance of the past few years. He is on a pace to set career marks in goals (55), assists (66), points (121), and power play goals (14).

Runners up: Dany Heatley, Ottawa; Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh.

Pavel Bure Trophy: presented annually to the player “mostly out standing at the far blue line” in the NHL.

Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers. OK, so he’s not as bad as he used to be, but it is a head-scratcher how a guy with 33 goals and 57 points in the first half could be a -7 (hint…10 of those goals and 21 of those points are on the power play).

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Hart Trophy: given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames. There are two elements we think important to this award. First, the award is for the most valuable player…not necessarily the best. Second, the player is judged in the context of value to his team. Iginla is the man in Calgary…28 percent more points (60) than the next player on the roster (Kristian Huselius, 47), more than twice as good a plus-minus (19) as the next best player (four players are at +9), 50 percent more power play goals (12, compared to eight for Daymond Langkow), twice as many game-winners (six; two other players each have three), almost three more minutes per game than the next highest forward. Absent Iginla, it isn’t likely that this is a top-eight team, whereas they currently lead the Northwest Division and occupy the three-seed in the Western Conference. In terms of value to his team, Iginla stands at the top of the heap.

Runners up: Roberto Luongo, Vancouver; Alexander Ovechkin, Washington

Heartless Trophy: given to the player judged to be least likely to have shown up in the first half.

Jaromir Jagr, New York Rangers. Caps fans know the story…spend a mint for a guy, then spend more to find players to play with him…watch how things don’t so much unfold as unravel. The Rangers – well, the Rangers and Caps – are paying $8.36 million for Jagr this year, and they added Chris Drury and Scott Gomez (to the tune of another $14.4 million) to help elevate Jagr’s game. And for that…he’s got roughly the same production as Tomas Plekanec…and that’s after going 4-11-15 in his last ten games. Not a small consideration in the Rangers’ dead last ranking in Eastern Conference scoring. He’ll be spending – so to speak – his second half struggling to qualify for his option for next year.

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We kid, because we love. For all of these guys, we’re talking about members of a community of a few hundred that represent the very best in the world at what they do. And we respect their effort…well, except maybe for Jagr.

Barry Melrose...Caps fan?

This was posted on ESPN a couple of days ago, but Melrose's mid-year trophy picks include a couple of Caps among the finalists and one "winner."

The Star Quarterback and the Girl Next Door

The star quarterback is going steady with the girl next door, and the prom queen seems beside herself with jealousy.

Such is where we seem to find ourselves with respect to Alex Ovechkin, Washington, and Montreal.

Once more, we are treated to a column in the Montreal Gazette that expresses longing at the possibility – remote though it is – that the “star quarterback” will forgo the plain girl next door for the prom queen, that Alex Ovechkin will forsake Washington and succumb to temptation to play for the Montreal Canadiens come October.

The “prom queen” in this case has everything going for it…24 Stanley Cups, a history that defines the term “legendary” for the sport of hockey – both with respect to the club and its long list of hall of fame players – and a fine arena filled every night with some of the most ardent and knowledgeable fans on the planet. And, in a new twist, the prom queen is apparently Russian.

Jack Todd goes over ground he’s plowed before, adding this time that Ovechkin did not dismiss a desire to play in Montreal out of hand in the post game interviews, and that after all, not only would the Canadiens offer all that history and adulation from a rabid fan base, but the Canadien locker room would be scarcely different than that he might find playing for Moscow Dynamo – Andrei and Sergei Kostitsyn, Ovechkin’s “great and good friend” Andrei Markov, Alexei Kovalev, Mikhail Grabovski. And if that isn’t enough, Ovechkin just might leave for the real thing – an $8 million tax-free pay day in Russia. But he might, “for the right inducement - say 15 years at $10 million per year… elect to play in a place where his talents will be appreciated, which will never be the case in the U.S. capital.” That place is, of course, Montreal.

What we suspect Todd knows, but in the blindness of desire has set aside, is that the matter is not Ovechkin’s to “elect.” He can influence the process, make his desires known, even forgo the NHL to return to Russia. But as a matter concerning from which city he draws an NHL paycheck, the decision rests with Washington. And not matching terms of an offer sheet tendered to Ovechkin, should it come to that, just isn’t an option for this franchise. As for a trade?...there is no conceivable trade that would bring back anything approaching equivalent value. With there being the right of first refusal held by the Capitals, there is no undue pressure to take a “less than market value” trade, as might exist if the player could walk free and clear at season’s end.

But there is a much more basic problem with the whole argument. …Ovechkin hasn’t given any indication he is unhappy with the girl next door.

True, Ovechkin responded to a reporter’s question yesterday on the matter of how he likes playing in Montreal that, “"This is my favourite city. The crowds, the noise, the music. It's a great place to play. I love to be here." But that is not the same as saying “I want to play for the Canadiens.” And while it is also true that Ovechkin can’t, as a practical matter, go around making that sort of statement, it is quite a leap of logic to conclude that he does not like playing in Washington. The personality he shows to the public in D.C. is hardly that of a player checking airline schedules for the first flight out of DC at season’s end (unless it is to head back home to Russia for home and vacation).

The unspoken theme here – and it is always the theme – is that Washington doesn’t deserve Ovechkin, and [fill in the name of your favorite hockey team] does. One can almost hear the prom queen spitting out the words under her breath, “she doesn’t deserve him, he should be with me.”

Well, sometimes, the star quarterback finds happiness with the girl next door.

Eminger sighted...

We will leave it to you, dear reader, to believe this to be true...or merely a hoax.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Canadiens 4 (OT)

Félicitations, Club de Hockey Capital!!

The Capitals made it four-for-four in Canada for the season this afternoon with a 5-4 overtime win over the pesky Montreal Canadiens at Bell Centre. Pending games to be played this evening, the win moved the Caps to within four points of the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference and within seven points of the top spot in the Southeast Division.

Mike Green delivered the game-winner – his second overtime game winner in the past dozen games – 1:27 into the extra session.

Green’s goal caped a wild and wooly contest that saw the Caps once more come back from a two-goal deficit, the third time they’ve done so in less than four weeks.

You’d think that in a game with nine goals, there was some rather poor goaltending on display, but that wasn’t entirely the case. Most of the goals in this one came off good plays or superb individual efforts…

Alexei Kovalev finding a passing lane to hit Tomas Plekanec, who had a virtually open net to shoot at…

Andrei Kastitsyn undressing Mike Green on a rush and roofing the puck over Olaf Kolzig’s blocker…

Alex Ovechkin rifling a blur of a shot right off a face off past Carey Price…

Roman Hamrlik waiting at the post to Kolzig’s right as a slap pass made it all the way through on the other side, hitting the end boards and bouncing right to Hamrlik, who had only to bat the puck into an empty net…

Michael Nylander taking a pass from Tomas Fleischmann, stepping around Kastitsyn, and finding Mike Green, who wasted no time getting the shot off for the game winner. Green didn’t get everything on it, but got it off in time before Price could scramble across the crease to cut it off…

There were goals that each goaltender might want back…Price didn’t look like the next coming of Patrick Roy on goals by Nicklas Backstrom or Boyd Gordon, and Kolzig probably should have had the save on what became a goal by Alexei Kovalev. But this was more a skills-on-parade kind of game than it was poor goaltending. It might even have been worse but for some fine saves by both netminders.

The number in this one that comes leaping off the page is…17.

That is the number of shots attempted by Alex Ovechkin, more than a quarter of the Caps’ total (63). 12 of those attempts were blocked, and we’re going to assume that Mike Komisarek is spending extra time in the whirlpool after blocking seven shots (five off the stick of Ovechkin).

We were just wondering…how is it that a player who was treated like a pylon on the game winning goal – a goal scored by a player who was 1-2-3, +1 – end up being named the third star of the game at the expense of that player scoring the game-winner? Just adds fuel to the idea that the whole “three stars” idea is one whose time has come and gone…it’s just a “homer” device (and the Caps are not immune to that sort of thing, either, in games at Verizon Center). Green might have disqualified himself for his own pylon moment on the Kastitsyn goal, but his was the winner in the end.

Brooks Laich didn’t show up in the scoring summary, but he had another solid game…8-for-11 in the circle, a couple of hits, a couple of blocked shots.

Matt Pettinger must be setting some record for lowest shooting percentage…three more shots today without a reward (he also had four misses), giving him two goals on 78 shots this year (2.6 percent). If Alex Ovechkin had that shooting percentage, he’d have six goals. But give Pettinger credit…he’s still plugging out there.

Much will be made of Mike Green taking on more minutes – he was on the ice for 27:46 in this game – but Jeff Schultz was next in line in ice time: 25:33. With Tom Poti and Brian Pothier on the shelf, Schultz has to assume a larger workload, but therein lies a problem, too. Schultz might not be far enough along in his development to be assuming that big a role on a consistent basis.

Matt Bradley had nine hits in 12:20. Can we suggest a nickname…”Tomahawk.”

Komisarek had better not use all the hot water in the whirlpool…Milan Jurcina had seven blocks, too.

Nine goals in this game…and John Erskine was on the ice for only one of them (Ovechkin’s second). Of the six Caps defensemen, he was the only one against whom Montreal scored no goals.

Shaone Morrisonn was on the ice for three of the four and still ended up a +1…he was also on the ice for three Caps goals.

Last year, after 42 games, the Caps had 18 wins (18-17-7). This year, they have 17 (17-20-5). Which feels better?

It was a nice way to end a short road trip, especially with a five game home stand coming up. There is only one divisional game in this upcoming set (Florida), but the five teams coming to Verizon Center have a combined road record of 50-45-9, as of the start of play today. It doesn’t get any easier.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Canadiens, January 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Wake up, Cap fans, it’s an early start to the second half of the year as the club visits Bell Centre for a 12:30 game against the Montreal Canadiens.

That’s right…12:30 pm.

But before we get to the particulars, this game starts the second half of the year, and in looking ahead, we’ve brought one of the most renowned practitioners of the prognosticatory arts to predict what the Caps fortunes might be over these last 41 and – we hope – more games.

To The Amazing Kreskin, welcome.

The Amazing Kreskin: “I knew you were going to say that.”

Let’s begin…the Caps are 16-20-5 as we start the second half. Since Christmas, they are 3-1-1 against some stiff competition. They have this roadie against the Canadiens today, then a five-game home stand…what do your spirits say?

TAK: “Well, if the Caps play well, and they score more than their opponents, I am supremely confident that they will win these games…”

That’s a very interesting take…in looking ahead, what do you think the chances are that the Caps will find a way to score more than their opponents?

TAK: “I see that the key is…goals. The Caps have to score more ‘goals’ than their opponents…and if they can do that, then I’m sure they will win at least most of their games.”

Uh...yeah.

TAK: “And there is more…should the Caps emerge from their contests with their opponents scoring fewer goals, they will have an even better chance of success in the second half of the season.”

Ya think?

TAK: “Absolutely…the combination of scoring more and opponents scoring fewer is what I see as the critical force in the Caps’ success in the second half.”

Well, where do you see the Caps finishing in the standings? Will they make the playoffs?

TAK: “I am confident that if the Caps finish no worse than eighth in the Eastern Conference, that they will make the playoffs.”

Well, what are their chances of doing that?

TAK: “If they finish with no more than seven teams ahead of them, their chances are very, very good.”

OK…this has been very interesting, but we’ll take it from here.

Five predictions:

1. Alex Ovechkin will not sign a new contract before the end of the season.

2. Alexander Semin will finish the year with more than 20 goals (he has six at the moment)

3. Matt Pettinger will finish the year with more than ten goals…and in a new city.

4. The Caps will be buyers at the trading deadline, probably for a veteran defenseman. The name that is popping up is…”Greg DeVries”

TAK: “you’re new at this, aren’t you?”

5. The Caps will catch the Florida Panthers – that’s right, the Florida Panthers – for the top spot in the Southeast Division on March 29^th, in game 79, when they defeat the Panthers in Florida. They will win the division with 88 points.

Now, as for today’s game…

Since leaving Washington after a 5-2 win on December 20^th, Montreal is 3-1-2, outscoring their opponents 22-16. Montreal’s success is not hard to figure out – if you commit a penalty against them, you pay. Six of their 22 goals in the last six games have been scored on the power play in 26 man advantages. Their success rate of 23.1 percent is actually behind their league-leading season success rate of 24.2 percent. They spread it around, too. Five different players have those six power play goals: Andrei Markov, Mark Streit, Andrei Kostitsyn (2), Alexei Kovalev, and Chris Higgins.

Spreading power play scoring around has been a key to the Canadiens’ season. 13 different players have scored power play goals, and 14 have power play points. Six have at least 10 power play points (the Caps have three players in that category).

It isn’t as if the Canadiens have been shirking their responsibilities on the other side of the special teams divide, either. They’ve killed off 18 of 20 shortages in the last six games.

If there is an odd statistic in the Montreal special teams play, though, it is this. The power play goal differential (goals for/goals against) is much narrower at home (18-16) than it has been on the road (27-16) this season.

The bottom line, though, is this…Montreal is 17-6-4 in games in which they score at least one power play goal, 3-7-3 in games in which they don’t. Conversely, the Caps are 13-6-2 in games where they have held a club without a power play goal, but only 3-14-3 in games where they have allowed at least one. The Caps’ penalty killers will be key in this game. The trouble is that in the last five road games, the Caps have killed only 13 of 19 man disadvantages (68.4 percent).

This is the first game of the second half and in a sense the first game of a new season. The pace the Caps have set since Thanksgiving (10-6-4) needs to be maintained, or even improved upon, for the club to have a shot at the Southeast Division crown (and it seems likely only one team from the division will make the playoffs). They get off on the right foot today…

Caps 4 – Canadiens 3

TAK: “I knew you were going to say that…”

Professor Peerless Posts the Midterm Report Card

41 games in the books, and it’s time to hand out midterm evaluations. We will dispense with the usual “grades” that come out this time of year and look to the sorts of comments that we used to get when we were in grade school...

Is a good citizen.

Viktor Kozlov. This might go for his only having accumulated 10 penalty minutes in 41 games, but one can’t help notice that despite his wretched goal drought that he ended the other day against Ottawa, he never seemed to complain or pout or get surly about it. He kept plugging, and while he can have the look from time to time of a guy skating without a care in the world, he did manage to compile 20 assists in the first half. That’s a pace that would get him his second highest career total.


Is becoming more dependable during work periods.

Alex Ovechkin. It might seem odd to place him under this comment, but while we marvel at his pace of a 60 goal season, let’s not forget that he is also on a pace for a +12 – a 31 point improvement over last year.


Is developing a better attitude toward work.

Alexander Semin. He hasn’t dressed as often as one might like, and this is a product of somewhat limited viewing this year, but he seems to be just a bit jollier in his attitude.


Is learning to occupy his time constructively.

Nicklas Backstrom. After what might be regarded by some as a slow start to his rookie campaign, he’s been averaging about a point a game since Thanksgiving, and he’s been able to hold his own with the top centers in the league. And he’s doing it while averaging 17:32 a game.


Wants responsibilities and follows through.

Mike Green. He still doesn’t get any penalty killing time to speak of, but he’s become the go-to guy on the blue line in the offensive end. He leads the defensemen in power play scoring, and he’s added five and a half minutes to his average ice time this year. He has the look of someone who can – and wants to – do better.


Has great potential and works toward achieving it.

Ovechkin. It isn’t often that a player – any player, but especially one arriving with all the ballyhoo of an Ovechkin – can be said to exceed expectations, but he’s done so in his short time in the NHL. That he would be mentioned as a potential 60-goal scorer in his third year, before his 23rd birthday, is rather amazing. Here is a comparison for you...in his first three years in the NHL, Wayne Gretzky scored 149 goals in 231 games. At his current scoring pace this year, Ovechkin is on a pace to score 141 goals in his first 231 games. He’s in pretty good company. And the combination of his enthusiasm and his raw hunger to score more suggests that he’s still on the rise in his scoring production.


Gaining more self-confidence.

Brian Pothier. This might look like another odd pick, Pothier being 30 years old. However, Pothier had logged fewer than 300 games in his career prior to this year and last year was burdened with the weight of a comparatively (for the Caps, at least recently) large contract and playing a larger, broader role than to which he was perhaps suited. He is not an all-things-in-all-situations defenseman, and he is not a 28-32 minute guy. This year, he’s fit into a role in which he seems a better fit – playing 18-20 minutes a game – and his game has prospered for it (5-9-14, +5, one game winner). The result is that he looks surer of himself on the ice.


Has earned a very fine report card.

Brooks Laich. The Caps have a lot of third and fourth line kinds of guys, and coming into this season there was a fear that there would be a real log jam among them. But Laich has quietly put together a pretty solid season, moving anywhere from the second to the fourth line, chipping in the odd goal, and crashing and banging when the situation calls for it. Only Ovechkin has more game-winning goals.


Has been consistently progressing.

Backstrom. Last summer, there were more than a few Caps fans who seemed to think Backstrom was overrated, based on his performance in rookie camp. Here’s a kid – 19 years old when the season started – in a different country, on a different ice surface, learning a different kind of game than the one he was used to playing in Europe. It was hardly a stretch to think he might struggle early. The club brought him along slowly, starting him on the wing in the early games. But since he’s been established at center, his scoring has improved, he’s been responsible in his own end, and he looks more assertive in all three zones of the ice. Playing with Ovechkin helps, but Ovechkin’s production has been helped by Backstrom’s improvement, too.


Works well in groups, planning and carrying out activities.

Michael Nylander. Let’s put Nylander’s -16 aside for the moment (no, let’s just throw it in a hole and shovel dirt on it). He has done what Nylander does...he is a “playmaker” who looks to set up teammates. Some might see him as a little too cute with the puck from time to time, or a little too concerned with making the pass, but he has 14 assists in his last 15 games. If he keeps up that pace in the last half (he’d finish with 61 assists), he will eclipse his career high for helpers (57, set last year with the Rangers).


Possible he could exceed grade expectations.

Boyd Gordon. Gordon had a slow start to the year and has missed 15 games (12 of them in December), but he’s 1-2-3, +3 in his last four games, has won 55.7 percent of his draws this year, and leads the entire NHL in shorthanded ice time. Not this year, but soon, he could be a Selke winner for the Caps. And we still think there is an untapped offensive potential there.


Unusually mature.

Jeff Schultz. He makes mistakes from time to time, and can be somewhat exasperating in not using his size to better advantage. But he rarely looks as if he is in panic. He plays smaller than his size, and that is not always a bad thing. Smaller defensemen need to use smarts and an ability to use angles and position to defend. He does this pretty well for one with fewer than 75 games of experience at the NHL level.


Good attitude.

Tomas Fleischmann. He played his way onto the opening night top line, then found himself overmatched early on. But he’s been earnestly plugging away – sometimes on the second line, sometimes on the fourth line – and is putting together a season that, if it won’t especially impress anyone this year, could be something to build on for the future.


He is capable of much better work.

Matt Pettinger. If someone had predicted Pettinger would have only two goals in 39 games and have the same scoring line as Donald Brashear (2-3-5), they’d have been thought a bit wacky, based on Pettinger’s last two years (36 goals in 135 games). His performance has been one of the big mysteries and disappointments of the first half. The good news is, if he can approach his rate of production of the last two years in the second half, it could be just the additional jump this team needs to push them into the playoff mix.


Disruptive in class.

The obvious pick here might be Donald Brashear, with his seven fighting majors this year (11th in the league). But Matt Bradley deserves a nod here, too, and in a good way. 56 hits (4th on the team) while getting only 8:29 of ice time a night. He makes his presence felt.


He still needs guidance and support from both you and me.

Milan Jurcina. And the “you and me” might read, “coaches and fans.” There is the lingering feeling that Jurcina is not performing up to the level he displayed upon coming to the Caps via trade from Boston last year. Statistically, that’s true...2-7-9, +5 in 30 games with the Caps last year versus 1-2-3, -4 in 36 games this year. He does not appear to be playing with quite the same edge or sense of urgency as last year and appears at times a bit lost on the ice. You’d wonder if this wasn’t a matter of a slip in self-confidence. One good sign...he’s only been on the minus side of the ledger twice in the last dozen games.


He assumes responsibility well and has a fine attitude.

Shaone Morrisonn. He draws the big assignments – the Jagrs, the Crosbys, the Lecavaliers. The lack of offense (four goals in 202 career games with the Caps) is something that folks might like to see improvement in, but here is a guy who has had two minus games in his last 14 drawing those big assignments. If he’s on the plus-side of the ledger that often in the second half, it will be a good second half for the Caps.


Quality of work has improved.

Tom Poti. Before Thanksgiving, Poti was 0-4-4, -4, in 15 games. Since then, he is 0-8-8, -1 in 19 games. It hasn’t propelled him into a short list for Norris Trophy consideration, but it is improvement.


Excessive absences.

Chris Clark. Hey, it’s not his fault (we’re more inclined to wonder if it wasn’t the condition of the ice that contributed to Clark’s groin injury), but having the captain out hasn’t helped this team. That the Caps have done as well as they have in his absence is a credit to the team and Bruce Boudreau. If Clark can get back to the ice for the second half, it can only help the team that much more. The hard part about this is that despite going scoreless for his first seven games, he was 5-3-8 in ten games before his injury, very much consistent with his career-record setting pace in goals set last year.


Hard worker.

David Steckel. He draws big minutes among forwards on penalty kills and often draws the big matchups at center. Even with some recent struggles in the faceoff circle, he’s won 52 percent of his draws this year. Not bad for a guy who came into the season with 12 games of NHL experience.


Does colorful and interesting work.

John Erskine. He has a knack for getting under the skin of opponents without ever changing the expression on his face. And I’ll bet no one had the “over” on the scoring contest between him and Pettinger this year (Erskine is 1-5-6).


Takes pride in work well done.

Quintin Laing. Some guys do one thing very well. Often, it is something that doesn’t get a lot of attention other than a “here’s an odd statistic” moment on a game broadcast. Laing’s thing is blocking shots. He has 19 in 14 games. Here’s some perspective on that stat...it projects to 111 for a full season. That happens to be the total that led the league among forwards last year (Mathieu Dandenault).


Exhibits excellent attitude.

Brent Johnson. You’d better have someone with an excellent attitude who is likely to get into a game maybe three times a month over the course of a season, if the number one goalie is doing well. Johnson is having perhaps his best of three years with the Caps (3-4-1, 2.92, .898). For a team with ambitions of making the playoffs, those numbers might have to improve some in the second half, but at the moment that will be difficult, given that he’s injured.


Does not work up to his ability.

Olaf Kolzig. This might seem harsh, but only because he has been the rock of this franchise for the better part of the last decade – a goaltender who has played a lot better than his numbers might suggest because the team in front of him has been so weak. But this year, one has a disturbing feeling that the club has bailed the goalie out more often than had been the other way around in the past. It is not that Kolzig has played poorly, at least not for long stretches. But he’s given up at least four goals in four of his last ten appearances, ten in 33 appearances this year. Part of the recent trend might be the higher risk offense coach Bruce Boudreau employs. But a save percentage of .868 over the last ten games isn’t something the team is going to be able to weather from its number one goaltender, either.


Overall, we said that this would be a team that would probably struggle early with all the new parts it had to incorporate this year, especially among the top-six forwards and on defense. We didn’t think they’d struggle to the extent they did. If one looks at the first 41 games, then it projects to 74 points...another year of disappointing mediocrity. However, the Caps are 10-6-4 in 20 games since the change behind the bench. If they continue that pace, they will finish with 86 points. Given that last year, 92 points was necessary to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference, that projection might look bleak. However, at the moment Carolina leads the Southeast Conference, and they are on a pace to earn...

...86 points.

The above might look a bit too "pollyanish" for some tastes, but the after-Thanksgiving team looks a lot more like the team folks thought might contend for a playoff spot. That goal is not out of reach, or at least not to the extent is appeared to be a month ago. There is still a lot of work to do, performances that have to be improved, and there are a lot of teams to climb over, but it could end up being a very interesting second half...if only this club can get healthier.

OK...what's up with this?

Now what?

So here we are, in Day 3 of the “Post Winter Classic” era.

If you read press releases, listen to TV and radio reports, and peruse the blogosphere, you will find heaps of praise ladled generously on the Winter Classic played in Buffalo on New Year’s Day.

It is deserved.

As theater, it was perhaps the single most important production for hockey since the invention of the cathode ray tube. Conjuring visions of youth and hockey played on ponds, with snow falling in what amounted to a four hour Hallmark moment, two teams clothed in old school back-to-their-origins jerseys and wearing grins like young boys that lit up the ice, a crowd that was enthusiastically involved in the contest from before the drop of the puck to well after the puck came to rest behind Ryan Miller in the shootout, and the league’s own poster boy – Sidney Crosby – providing the coup de grâce, it was an afternoon hockey executives and fans have prayed for since the end of the lockout.

Hockey was relevant again.

NBC reported television ratings in the U.S. better than those for any regular season telecast in almost 11 years. The game – and the sport – realized a rare penetration into print and electronic media that seem in recent years more devoted to running hockey off the sports landscape. Even the princes of ESPN – Tony Kornheiser and Michael Wilbon (one a hockey basher of some note, the other primarily a basketball writer who dropped hockey in favor of soccer and NASCAR because of his crowded schedule) – lavished praise on the effort.

At the moment, it is the Era of Good Feeling in the world of hockey…thanks to one game played outdoors.

Well, folks, NHL hockey is not one game, and it is not played outdoors. It is a more-than-six-month regular season covering 82 games, and it is played indoors in 30 cities, some of which are having a hard time making a buck or drawing fans to the rink (the Caps, for instance, are on a pace to draw their smallest average attendance since the 1983-84 season).

And, for you students of history, the Era of Good Feeling of the early 18^th century ultimately dissolved into division and conflict. The potential for that exists in the months and years to come with a labor agreement that could be dissolved less than two years from now*; the lingering separation of clubs into populations of “haves” and “haves not,” despite the cost-certainty realized from the current agreement; uncertainty with respect to expansion or relocation; and a persistent lack of attention (the Winter Classic, notwithstanding) given to the NHL in the U.S.

The Winter Classic was less a blessing than an opportunity, and the league needs to take advantage of it. How they do that is a remedy to the problem that I don’t have – if I did, I’d be happy to share it. But it is a remedy that must be found while this opportunity presents itself, because while the Winter Classic was a theatrical success, it is also a novelty. I would not expect the league to repeat its success, even if it becomes an annual event. Novelties wear off.

I’ve been a fan of the sport for more years than I care to admit. Literally the first thing I did upon moving to Washington, many years ago, was to purchase a Caps ticket plan. Having seen just about every team sport there is – live and/or on television – I can testify that there is nothing…absolutely nothing…to compare to the experience of watching a hockey game live. Whether you sit in the balcony of an arena watching the geometry of the game unfold before your eyes, or you sit near the glass and appreciate the raw speed and power of the game, it is an experience that can’t be matched by any other team sport. The Stanley Cup tournament is some of the most compelling sustained drama that one could ever hope to see in sport. That the National Hockey League has not found a way to convey this to the sports fan is, I believe, one of the great modern tragedies in sports.

I’m no different than any other hockey fan – talking up the sport, marveling at the goals or the saves or the hits, making extra tickets available to friends and potential fans. And maybe it’s the little things like that – not the big Cecil B. DeMille productions – that will make a difference in rebuilding the sport. We can only hope hockey fans everywhere are doing what they can do, just out of the enthusiasm for the sport they show, to make that come true.

Looking back at the game played on Tuesday and marveling at the attention it received does little good for the league and teams not in Buffalo or Pittsburgh in the long term. The trick is in figuring out a way to build on the success of the Winter Classic, looking ahead and figuring out a way to translate the success of a unique event into something that can be sustained in the regular grind of a long season. Because if the league can’t do that, then the Winter Classic will – as it recedes into memory – look more like a snow globe you take out from time to time to reminisce of a time long gone than a signal of a new dawn for the sport.

* Article 3, Section 3.1(b) of the collective bargaining agreement states, “notwithstanding anything to the contrary set forth in subparagraph 3.1(a), the NHL [Players Association] shall have the right: (i) to terminate this Agreement as of September 15, 2009 by delivery of written notice the NHL at least 120 days prior to September 15, 2009…”

A no point night: Bruins 2 - Caps 0

Sometimes, you get the bear…and sometimes, the bruin gets you.

That Bruin would be Tim Thomas, who – if he played the Caps 40 times a year – might end up in the Hall of Fame. As it is, the 2-0 shutout he rung up last night against the Caps in Boston made him 8-0-1 in his career against the red, white, and blue.

It wasn’t enough to take the shine off the back-to-back wins against Ottawa, but it was a dose of reality, that there is a lot of work to do…and having depleted bunch with which to do it makes it harder.

It wasn’t as if the Caps lacked for effort as much as for results…at both ends. Boston couldn’t put the game away against Caps goalie Olaf Kolzig until they were granted a two-man advantage mid-way through the third period. A double minor to Mike Green for high sticking and a bench minor for too many men on the ice was converted into a game-clinching goal by Zdeno Chara 36 seconds after the penalties were assessed. And even that was a product of the Caps’ netminder being leveled in his own crease by his own teammate, Jeff Schultz, who just seemed to lose track of exactly where he was. Chara had what amounted to an open net at which to shoot.

Before that, Marc Savard made good on a rebound to give the B’s a 1-0 lead in the second period, but the story of this game was two goaltenders exchanging big stops…Thomas denying Tomas Fleischmann on a break following a turnover less than six minutes into the game…Kolzig snuffing out a drive by Phil Kessel off a pretty drop pass from P.J. Axelsson…Kolzig again stopping Marco Sturm from in close in the last two minutes of the first period…Thomas stopping Nicklas Backstrom from point blank range…Thomas again, stopping Donald Brashear all alone in the slot…Thomas denying Alex Ovechkin, not once, but twice in the same sequence, leaving Ovechkin to gaze into the rafters.

It was a treat for those who like goaltenders making big saves, even if the result was disappointing to Caps fans.

Not much to tease out of the numbers for this one; it was a tightly fought affair. If anything, the minutes evidenced the problem injuries create…guys getting more minutes than they otherwise might, perhaps playing roles they might not other wise play. For example, Schultz played almost six minutes more than his season average (23:50, compared to 18:06). Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich split up a good portion of the power play time that Alexander Semin might have gotten (3:32 and 3:14, respectively…Semin averages 4:42 in power play ice time this year). Even John Erskine, who had logged barely two minutes of power play ice time for the season, registered almost a minute on the man advantage that Tom Poti might have had.

On the other side, former Cap Glen Metropolit might have been the best player on the ice last night for the Bruins not named “Thomas.” A pair of assists, 60 percent on faceoffs, no giveaways, and it was his shot from which a rebound came that Savard pounced on for his goal.

But the story was Thomas. Alex Ovechkin noted after the game that the game was "[the] most terrible game of the season for us. We don't move. We don't shoot the puck. We were sleeping tonight – everybody. Only Olie (Kolzig) played well. I don't know what happened to us."

That might have been frustration talking. In all sports, there are “fill-in-the-blank killers”…a player who just has a knack for success against one team, even if his career hasn’t been otherwise noteworthy. In baseball, the example is someone like Frank Lary – a guy who won only 128 games in a 12-year career, but was 28-13 against the New York Yankees, earning him the nickname of “Yankee Killer” and once prompting Yankee Manager Casey Stengel to hold his ace – Whitey Ford – out of a matchup against Lary, noting that if Lary was going to win anyway, why waste his best pitcher doing it. Thomas seems to be growing into that kind of “Cap-killer.”

After this loss, some comments we remember from Brooks Laich the other day seem relevant. He noted that in a long season, you’re going to lose games here and there, but you can’t let one loss become two. The Caps have to avoid streaks of the negative sort at this point, which makes the game on Saturday in Montreal important.