The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, January 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Sunday morning here in Washington, and that’s as good a time as any to catch up on the mail…

Peerless…

LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA…I can’t hear you. Ovechkin didn’t sign any contract…he’s gonna be a Ranger. LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA-LA.

Signed,

Larry in the Apple

Larry:

That’s OK…there’s always Dion.

**********

Dear Peerless…

Do the Caps have a shot? Can they make the playoffs?

Signed,

Caps Fans

Caps fans:

This morning, the Caps are in 13^th place in the East, six points behind the eighth-place Islanders for a playoff spot. The points are not the problem as much as that 13^th place and what it means. The Caps have five teams to climb over to get to that eighth spot. The “good news” here is that the East is so tightly bunched at this point (eight points separating third and 14^th place, although that third place is really the seventh best point total in the conference) that if a team can get hot, if they can get on a ten game run where they win 16-18 points, they can either pass some clubs or get some separation. The Caps are 5-2-3 in their last ten games with four more left in this home stand. Getting at least six points over the rest of the home stand is critical. Even if they get them, they will not be enough to get into the top eight, but they will position the Caps to compete over the last 35 games. To answer your question, they can, but it remains a longshot.

**********

Dear Peerless:

Can Alex represent me when my next contract comes up?

Signed,

Sid in Pee-Ay

Dear Sid:

We’ll ask his mom…

**********

Dear Peerless,

Now that Ovechkin has signed, will anyone come to watch this team?

Signed,

Anonymous

Dear Anonymous:

If the last two years are an indication, the Caps will do better in the second half of the year. In 2005-2006, the first year after the lockout, the Caps drew at least 15,000 five times before January 1^st, 10 times after the new year. In 2006-2007, the numbers were four and 12. This year, the Caps drew at least 15,000 five times leading up to the new year. Ovechkin’s contract and the buzz it creates might generate some curiosity (although winning would be a better remedy), but the Caps would be expected to draw better in the second half in any case.

**********

Dear Peerless,

What is the Caps best chance to make the playoffs, finishing in the top-eight or winning the Southeast?

Signed,

Stormy in Carolina

Dear Pig:

Collar getting tight down there? Actually, the situation has the look of “six of one, half a dozen of the other.” The Caps are six points behind the Islanders for eighth in the East, seven behind the Hurricanes for the lead in the Southeast. The key might be the schedule. The Caps have 15 games remaining against Southeast teams (four against each of Carolina, Atlanta, and Florida; three against Tampa Bay). In one of the true quirks (you may read that as “abominations”) in the results, every SE team has an above-.500 record in the division:

Tampa Bay: 10-9-1 (21 pts.)

Atlanta: 9-7-1 (19)

Carolina: 9-8-1 (19)

Florida: 9-8-1 (19)

Washington: 8-7-2 (18)

Three points separate top and bottom in the intra-divisional records, and the Caps have at least a game in hand on everyone in the division. No one has shown an ability to break away. Here is the thing, though. Since getting pasted, 5-1 by Atlanta, in Glen Hanlon’s last game behind the Caps’ bench, the Caps are 5-1-1 in the division, winning their last four games and beating each of the other teams at least once. If the Caps can maintain that pace and win 23-24 of the remaining 30 points on the table in the division, it would not just go a long way to securing a playoff spot, it would go a long way to allowing the Caps to leap-frog the other teams in the division.

But before we do all of that, there are the Philadelphia Flyers to contend with this afternoon in a 1:00 pm start. And the Flyers are coming in on a roll. After going 0-4-2 in a six game stretch from December 13-22, they are visiting Washington in the midst of a 6-1-1 run in their last eight. The particulars:

Record: 6-1-1

Goals for/against: 25-15

Power play: 9/36 (25.0 percent)

Penalty killing: 35/41 (85.4 percent)

25 years…$193 million. Mike Richards…Alex Ovechkin. Just thought we’d mention that.

OK, as for the Flyers, it might not be surprising that Richards isn’t the leading scorer in the 6-1-1 run (he’s 1-4-5, +4), but it is that Scott Hartnell is. Hartnell is 6-3-9, +6, including a hat trick against the Rangers in a 6-2 win last Thursday. The other big contract player for the Flyers, and object of Caps fans’ affection Daniel Briere – is 2-5-7, +1 in these last eight games, but he remains a -9 on the year, despite scoring at about a point-per-game (17-26-43 in 42 games). The Flyers, though, are missing Joffrey Lupul, injured with a bruised spinal cord and concussion. When he went down, he had been on a 10-8-18, +2 run in his previous 12 games, with a couple of hat tricks for good measure.

Antero Niittymaki has been the man in goal for the orange and black. He’s earned the decision in five of the last six games, going 4-0-1 in the process (1.80 GAA, .954 SV, one shutout). He did, however, give up four goals in taking the overtime loss against the Bruins (4-3) yesterday, in Philadelphia.

Niittymaki has not played both ends of a back-to-back in his 14 appearances this year, so the task today might fall to Martin Biron. Biron has the other two wins in the recent eight-game run for the Flyers, and his only loss was in a shutout pitched by Martin Brodeur on January 4^th. Biron has had a fair amount of success against the Caps, going 9-6-1-1, 2.54, .911 in 17 career games. He is 0-1-1 in his last two decisions against the Caps.

The Caps are on a roll of their own, going 5-1-1 in their last seven, their only regulation loss also coming in a shutout (against Boston, 2-0, on January 3). And this is a club Alex Ovechkin seems to like playing against (10 career games, 10-8-18, +3, two game-winning goals). He’s not the only one. Michael Nylander is 10-24-34, +7 in 34 career games against the Flyers. The additional entertainment might be provided by Donald Brashear, who has 97 penalty minutes in 21 career games against his old club.

This will be another in a series of challenges this week – one of the former Patrick Division rivals coming to town with a few wins under their belt. But the Caps have been up to the challenge lately, and this will be no different…

Caps 3 – Flyers 2

plink, plink, plink...shh, I'm tuning up

40 shots, 37 saves...

...but the Bears lost to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in Wilkes-Barre last night, 3-1, in Brent Johnson's rehab assignment game with Hershey.

It didn't exactly look like a sterling night for the chocolate and white, being out shot 40-16 and giving up those three goals in a space of 10:33 in the third period.

Johnson earned the game's second star.


(photo: Don Carey, The Times Leader)

The First Half...a bit of a belated look

We know, the Caps have now completed 43 games on this year's journey, but it might be useful to look at a comparison of this year to last through the 41-game first half among the players and see how things have improved...or haven't.

Brian Pothier:

2006-2007: 41 games, 1-16-17, -3
2007-2008: 38 games, 5-9-14, +5

Pothier takes a fair amount of grief from Caps fans, perhaps a product more of his contract than his play. However, he’s been more complete this year than last, and perhaps that is due to the change in his playing time. Last year through 41 games, he averaged 25:34. This year, that number is down to 18:42. The almost-six minute reduction seems to have freed him up to play at a higher level when he does take the ice.
*****

Tom Poti:

2006-2007: 40 games, 3-16-19, -4 (with NY Islanders)
2007-2008: 34 games, 0-12-12, -5

Except for the goals, and a few games missed to injury, Poti is having (statistically, at least), pretty much the start he had last year. He did have a better second half than first half last year (3-22-25, +3 in 38 games). The hiccups of injury to start the year and end the first half contributed to a slow start, one that might have been foreseen anyway with his coming to a new team and expected to be the quarterback and offensive engine on the blue line. His having a better second half is likely to be important to any success the Caps realize for the remainder of the season.
*****

John Erskine:

2006-2007: 18 games, 1-4-5, -5
2007-2008: 20 games, 1-5-6, -3

Coincidence or not, the Caps’ fortunes changed last year when he sustained a broken foot blocking a shot against the Flyers on December 16. That game was the high-water mark of the year (15-10-7), after which the Caps finished 13-30-7. Erskine might not have been the proximate cause of that slump, but he is the only “physical” defenseman on the roster. His year-to-year production, based on the numbers above, suggests a player of the sort that isn’t going to surprise, either in his skills or his limitations. His penalty minutes are down this year (36, versus 56 at the half-way point last year), but 29 of those PIMs last year came in a “back-to-the-70’s” night against Atlanta in which 176 penalty minutes were meted out, three players were suspended (Erskine not being among them), and both coaches were fined.
*****

Alexander Ovechkin:

2006-2007: 41 games, 25-29-54, -3
2007-2008: 41 games, 30-20-50, +6

We’ve commented on Ovechkin’s consistency in the past (check the link to the subject over in the right margin), and this is no exception. Wind him up, watch him produce – this year doing so with a revolving mix on his line at center and right wing to start the year. This year, his total scoring is slightly down from last year, but he is a more complete player at both ends and is picking up an additional two minutes of ice time a night in the meantime. He’s given no reason to suspect anything but a similar performance in the second half. It isn’t so much that he has to take his game to the next level as much as the team around him has to – to the extent they do, it would seem likely that his assist totals will improve.
*****

Matt Bradley:

2006-2007: 24 games, 3-6-9, +2
2007-2008: 36 games, 2-6-8, +2

Bradley is, in hockey parlance, an “energy” forward. That’s another term for “nuisance.” He’s there to annoy, bother, aggravate, and otherwise get opponents off their game. If he chips in the odd goal or two, fine. He’s been somewhat more durable this year, but he plays a game that subjects him to breakdowns.
*****

Boyd Gordon:

2006-2007: 32 games, 2-8-10, +8
2007-2008: 26 games, 4-3-7, +2

Gordon has had to contend with injuries this year, but still has managed to contribute in ways that don’t find their way to the score sheet. Despite a hand injury, he is ninth in the NHL in faceoff percentage. The Caps have been giving up more goals than is comfortable in recent games. Gordon’s presence in the second half is needed to address that issue.
*****

Chris Clark:

2006-2007: 39 games, 14-14-28, -2
2007-2008: 17 games, 5-3-8, even

Well, at least he’s still around. By this time, Caps captains of recent vintage (Steve Konowalchuk, Brendan Witt, Jeff Halpern) have moved on. But this has been a lost season so far for Clark, who is still battling a persistent groin injury. Getting him back and healthy for the second half is almost at this point, after having missed 24 games in the first half, like making a trade.
*****

Matt Pettinger:

2006-2007: 33 games, 10-9-19, -7
2007-2008: 39 games, 2-3-5, -10

Clark has had injuries that have influenced his production this year. Pettinger, though, has been a mystery. It doesn’t appear for lack of effort – he’s plugging away each night. But the results just haven’t been there. He’s been moved around among the second, third, and fourth lines, but hasn’t really seemed to find a comfort zone anywhere thus far. As disconcerting as the lack of scoring has been is his being a -10 half way through the year (second worst on the club).
*****

Nicklas Backstrom:

2006-2007: no games, 0-0-0, 0
2007-2008: 41 games, 7-22-29, -3

We wouldn’t have included him in this entry (his not having played in the NHL last year) but to note the progress he’s made since the start of the year, and especially since Thanksgiving. He’s been averaging about a point per game since late November and has established himself as an important ingredient to the club’s success. If he continues his scoring pace of the last six weeks through the rest of the year, he will finish with 65-70 points and will get a lot of Calder Trophy consideration. His faceoff performance could stand improvement (43 percent), but even Sidney Crosby struggled with that in his rookie year (45 percent).
*****

Brooks Laich:

2006-2007: 41 games, 4-4-8, -7
2007-2008: 38 games, 7-5-12, -2

In a way, Laich is providing almost the numbers one might have expected from Pettinger. He is on a pace for career highs in goals and total points and is doing it filling a number of roles. He’s another who has found himself anywhere from the second to the fourth line, and gets some power play time thrown in. For a player who was on the bubble – one of the log jam of third/fourth line forwards the club had in training camp, he’s taken advantage of opportunities presented.
*****

Milan Jurcina:

2006-2007: 29 games, 2-1-3, -3
2007-2008: 36 games, 1-2-3, -6

The numbers aren’t all that different, but Jurcina doesn’t look like the same force of nature he was at times last year. When he arrived with the club via trade from Boston last year, he made an impression pretty quickly as a player who was not afraid of taking the body, as they say, of an opponent and smearing it along the boards. The same sense of urgency and malice doesn’t appear to have been there as often this year. His contributions aren’t likely to find their way into the score sheet, but they need to be more frequent in the second half.
*****

Viktor Kozlov:

2006-2007: 40 games, 13-11-24, +7 (with NY Islanders)
2007-2008: 41 games, 4-20-24, +6

There is an inconsistent consistency in Kozlov’s numbers from one year to the next. While the points remain the same, the mix has changed, skewing much more heavily toward assists. That’s what playing with Alex Ovechkin will do…or does it? While Kozlov has more assists on Ovechkin goals than for any other player, such assists do not dominate Kozlov’s total to the extent one might expect. He actually has more primary assists on Nicklas Backstrom goals (4) than on Ovechkin goals (3). Kozlov has spread it around, too. He’s assisted on goals from 10 different players. One might like that goal total to be higher (he’s had 12- and 23-game goal scoring droughts this year), but he’s found other ways to contribute in the meantime.
*****

Shaone Morrisonn:

2006-2007: 37 games, 1-5-6, +2
2007-2008: 41 games, 0-6-6, +1

A lot is made over the emergence of Mike Green on the blue line since Bruce Boudreau took over behind the bench, but there is subtle flip side to that. Morrisonn was +11 in 22 games to finish the first half under Boudreau. Is that because he plays a lot with Green, who is scoring more these days, or is it because Morrisonn has Green’s back, covering for him so Green can jump into the offense more? Well, it’s both. One doesn’t work without the other. If Green is going to be credited with blossoming into a new, bigger offensive role, then Morrisonn needs to be credited with providing the support that allows that part of Green’s game to emerge, too.
*****

Alexander Semin:

2006-2007: 37 games, 19-18-37, +3
2007-2008: 23 games, 6-6-12, -9

Injuries have made this something of a lost first half for Semin, a player for whom lost time causes swift erosions of game-day skills such as puck-handling and shooting. Having played only four games in October and five in November, he never could get the early traction that would allow him to find a groove. In Bruce Boudreau’s parlance, the groove become a rut...early injury, unproductive play when he was back in the lineup, and re-injury. The Caps have climbed back to the edge of playoff competition largely without much production from Semin. If he can approach the pace he set last year in the second half (19-17-36 in the second half last year), it will be a welcome boost to the Caps’ chances.
*****

David Steckel:

2006-2007: 3 games, 0-0-0, -2
2007-2008: 41 games, 3-3-6, +1

From call-up depth forward to defensive stopper, Steckel has come a long way in a year. The usual goals-assists-points statistical line doesn’t say much, but his value can be summarized in two numbers: 2 and 23. Those are his rankings in the NHL in short-handed ice time among forwards and in faceoffs (51.9 percent wins) among players taking at least 500 draws. Now, if he could just play against Tampa Bay 82 times a year (3-2-5, +4 in five games this year).
*****

Tomas Fleischmann:

2006-2007: 8 games, 0-1-1, -1
2007-2008: 38 games, 5-7-12, -5

No Cap has had a wilder ride through the first 41 games than this guy. From coming to camp without a contract, playing himself into a deal and the first line on opening night, finding himself somewhat overmatched in that role, bumped down the pecking order, sitting for a few games, getting back into the lineup and moving about the second, third, and fourth lines…getting 12 points in 38 games isn’t the worst result that could have occurred. But getting 12 points in the first half wasn’t what was expected when the puck dropped for the first time in October, either. Fleischmann is essentially an offensive player, and he stuck in a numbers game. Ovechkin and Semin are the scoring line left wingers. Kozlov and Clark (when he returns) are likely to be the right side top liners. Fleischmann might not get enough time on ice to fully develop or demonstrate his game. He’ll be getting some third and fourth line duty, perhaps some power play time. It might be a struggle for him to get quality minutes, and in an odd way he might be the canary in the coal mine in the second half. If he’s getting a lot of minutes, it is a likely to be reflection of injuries. When a coach says that an injury means that the next guy has to step in and be just as good, here is the guy who has to be just as good.
*****

Steve Eminger:

2006-2007: 37 games, 0-7-7, -9
2007-2008: 2 games, 0-1-1, -3

12^th overall draft pick to young up-and-coming-defenseman to minutes-eater (fourth on the club in average ice time last year) to…oblivion. The speed and depth of his fall has been stunning and is no small mystery on a club that is not elite in talent and is fighting health issues on the blue line. It’s anyone’s guess how this tale will play out (and at this point, anything anyone might offer on the subject is just that – a guess), but it seems that Eminger has no future in Washington. Someday, we might find out why that is so, but for now, it is merely a mystery worthy of an Agatha Christie.
*****

Mike Green:

2006-2007: 39 games, 2-6-8, +5
2007-2008: 41 games, 10-11-21, -2

From “why isn’t this guy in Hershey?” to “is he going to be a Norris finalist?” in, what, eight weeks? As stunning as Eminger’s fall has been, so has been Green’s ascent. It is a story of two seasons. Through games of November 21^st, Green was 3-4-7, -8. Starting November 23^rd through the end of the first half, he was 7-7-14, +6. Think the coaching change made a difference? No player has been affected more by the change behind the bench than Green. His is something of a high-risk/high-reward game, though. Since the change – and the larger role Green has been playing – he’s had four games of +2 or better. He’s also had three games of -2 or worse. Here is your Mike Green number-o’-the-day…five. That is how many seconds of shorthanded ice time he’s played this year. Even Eminger has more.
*****

Quintin Laing:

2006-2007: no games, 0-0-0, 0
2007-2008: 14 games, 1-2-3, +1

Laing gets a mention here, because he’s something of a throwback, reminiscent of the “Plumbers” of the 1980’s. It is tempting to pigeon-hole him as a “he’s not” kind of player, as in “he’s not this,” or “he’s not that.” But that’s doing him a disservice. What he is, is the kind of player who will take what skills he has and amplify them, even if they’re not sexy. His is shot-blocking. In those 14 games in the first half, he had 19 blocked shots, a pace that over 82-games would equal the league-leading total of last year among forwards. It is among the ultimate self-sacrifices in the sport, placing your body in front of a speeding puck (at least goalies are largely armor-protected). Laing is an elite practitioner of the art.
*****

Jeff Schultz:

2006-2007: 4 games, 0-0-0, -2
2007-2008: 34 games, 5-3-8, even

There is a saying, “you can’t coach big.” You can’t hide it, either, and that is something of a curse for Schultz, because he doesn’t play like a big man, or at least fans’ notion of how a big man should play. He plays a game that might be more common among guys who are six feet and 190 pounds, rather than 6’6”, 224. That is not necessarily a bad thing. The league allocates standings points for wins, not for style points for hits. And if Schultz can keep opponents from scoring by using position and angles instead of body-checks and thunderous hits, well, good for him. He has struggled at times this year, but such might be expected from a guy who came into the year with only 38 games of NHL experience. The change in his game from this point last year hasn’t necessarily been “leaps and bounds,” but rather measured and incremental. He plays the sort of game where if you don’t notice him, he’s probably doing his job well. On a good night, he’ll get 20 minutes, might get a secondary assist, a couple of blocked shots (he’s second in that stat among defensemen), and a +1. He won’t have a SportsCenter highlight hit, but the opponent won’t score when he’s on the ice, either. If you notice him, it’s more likely to be a bad night, the sort where he’s in the frame in the highlight of the opponent scoring a goal.
*****

Donald Brashear:

2006-2007: 36 games, 0-3-3, -4
2007-2008: 41 games, 2-3-5, -2

Brashear is a practitioner of perhaps the toughest job in the sport – peacekeeper (one might substitute terms such as “enforcer,” “fighter,” etc., etc.). But he is not a liability in other aspects of the game, at least to a point. That he plays at the edge of the rules – and sometimes over that edge – isn’t exactly one of the league’s best kept secrets. But he gets more power play time a game than Boyd Gordon or Jeff Schultz (though 16 seconds isn’t much), and he isn’t as one dimensional as many of his physical cohort are. He’s “opened up” on offense this year compared to last, although he isn’t on a pace to come close to any career highs in that regard. He’ll get 6-8 minutes a game, try to disrupt an opponents rhythm (or teeth). That’s his role on this team. If he chips in a point every 6-8 games, more’s the better.
*****

Michael Nylander:

2006-2007: 39 games, 14-31-45, +11 (with NY Rangers)
2007-2008: 37 games, 10-23-33, -16

Since Nylander’s game includes a large element of skating and playing off linemates, it wouldn’t have been surprising to see him start slowly with a new club, even if it was his second tour in Washington. He did start somewhat slowly (5-14-19, -9 in 22 games through Thanksgiving), but unfortunately, he hasn’t improved on that pace much. The problem here is an injury (shoulder) that allows him to stay on the ice with diminished productivity, but which might require surgery from what we’re reading.
*****

Olaf Kolzig:

2006-2007: 31 games, 13-12-4, 3.08, .911
2007-2008: 33 games, 13-16-4, 2.99, .891

We know it’s difficult, but let’s put aside the name, close our eyes, and think…

.891

Only one goaltender in the league with at least 20 games has a lower save percentage (Johan Holmqvist, Tampa Bay). It isn’t a consistently poorer performance by Kolzig this year that has left him in that position, it is more that opponents are ripping off larger chunks of goals more frequently. If you compare this year’s first half to last and the times Kolzig has allowed more than three goals, he’s actually doing better this year (10 occasions to 12 thorough the first half last year). But while opponents tagged him for five or more goals only three times in the first half last year, he’s given up five or more five times in 33 games in the first half this year. It is an unsettling trend, even if the Caps choose to employ a higher-risk offense under Boudreau (although three of the five occasions this year came before the coaching change). The Caps have had a winning formula since Thanksgiving, but that seems as often as not to be in spite of, not a product of goaltending.
*****

Brent Johnson:

2006-2007: 13 games, 4-5-3, 3.40, .893
2007-2008 11 games, 3-4-1, 2.92, .898

When looking at benchmarks some months back (check the link over on the right), we made a point about backup goaltenders on playoff squads last year:

-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games in this group (except for Marc Denis, who was demoted) had a below-.500 record.

-- None of the ten goalies who played more than 20 games (again, except Denis) had a goal-against of more than 3.00

-- Only two of the ten goalies in this group who played more than 20 games had a save percentage below .900 (Denis and Johan Hedberg)

Johnson is below .500 (this year and last), has a GAA hovering around 3.00 (markedly improved over last year, though), and has a save percentage a couple of ticks below .900. He’s also injured. The Southeast is characterized by goaltending issues among most of its teams, the Caps (somewhat surprisingly) included. When he returns, Johnson is going to get playing time, and if the Caps are going to make a push, he can’t be just a “sacrificial” goalie to give Kolzig a breather. The Caps need to earn points when he plays, and sometimes he’s going to have to be the key to getting them. He is playing somewhat better than last year, but will have to improve on that for the Caps to contend.

A Tale of Two...Opinions

December 21st...

"If the Islanders can throw 15 years at Rick DiPietro and the Flyers are willing to give Mike Richards a dozen, why not a 15-year deal for Ovechkin? Is there a player in the league, apart from Crosby, as likely to make such a deal pay?...Is it worth it? Put it this way: If Lecavalier is the reincarnation of Jean Béliveau, then Ovechkin is the Rocket. No one in the league plays the game with such fire, such joyous abandon. Ovechkin is the real thing, the bona fide, superstar sniper the Canadiens have not had in nearly a quarter-century, since Guy Lafleur hung 'em up. All it will take is, oh, $120 million over 15 years and a slew of first-round picks."

January 11th...

"Is Ovechkin worth $124 million over 13 years? Is anyone?...even with his deeds of derring-do, the sad sack Capitals are tied for 27th in a 30-team league, and quite probably doomed to miss the playoffs for a fifth consecutive season...as of Thursday, Ovechkin may have just consigned himself to being the most commanding one-man show since Henry Fonda as Darrow."

The latter, from an article written in the Vancouver Sun, was lambasted by Ted Leonsis. The irritation appears well placed.

There are two arguments made in that latter article that seem especially ill-fitting. The first concerns the quote, "Is Ovechkin worth $124 million over 13 years? Is anyone?"

Well, yes. By definition, that's true, by whatever definition of "market" one wants to use. Leonsis and the rest of the club deemed that number was what it would take to secure Alex's services for the next 13 years -- he accepted it. End of discussion; he's "worth it" to someone (and, I suspect, to a lot of fans long before this contract expires).

Second, there is the inevitable lament that Washington is the shack at the end of the dirt road of hockey -- hopeless and clueless about winning a championship. Ovechkin has, so the argument goes, chained himself to a loser for the next decade or more.

Well, gee, I haven't seen any championships in Pittsburgh since Sidney Crosby came into the league, either, and they remain a flawed team to boot, despite their current winning ways. Because of the manner in which the league has pursued an "all-the-eggs-in-one-basket" strategy by making Crosby the be-all and end-all of hockey, that Crosby-centric theme works only if Crosby wins...will we be seeing these same laments in a few years, that he toiled in a city that couldn't win, should the Penguins fail to win a Cup and the end of his contract is in sight?

And more to the point, when that contract does come up, as Leonsis put it in the context of Ovechkin (but replacing Alex with Sidney), "does anyone really believe that in five years - as a free agent - that a player such as [Sidney] wouldn't receive an offer for $10 million per year as an unrestricted free agent? What does this writer think the salary cap number will be in five years? In 10 years?"

If that scenario unfolds, Canada might be beckoning, especially if Pittsburgh hasn't won anything.

The Montreal Gazette article opined that $120 million and "a slew of first round picks" would be a good deal for the Canadiens. Ted spent about that much, gets to keep the picks (no small consideration, given the strategy of team-building the Caps are trying to employ), and that's a bad deal.

Guess only when the city involved is Washington.

If you don't read this, you're an idiot

Nope...it's nothing authored by my stubby fingers on a keyboard...it is an excellent wild-ride sort of account of the lead-up to the Ovechkin signing by the guys at On Frozen Blog.

To pucksandbooks and Dmitry...well done.

A Tale of Two Deals

Let us consider this morning a tale of two players, of two deals, of two very different times...

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…

In July 2001, the Washington Capitals had recently completed another solid regular season, followed by – again – a gut-wrenching loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup playoffs. On the 11th day of that month, when the deal was announced to bring Jaromir Jagr to Washington and the wild cheering in its aftermath subsided, the prevailing view was that Jagr would be the last, best piece of the puzzle to bring a Cup to Washington. The other pieces were in place – a solid goalie (Olaf Kolzig), a sniper to be the finisher to Jagr’s playmaking skills (Peter Bondra), a power play quarterback who would complement Jagr’s skills in that facet of the game (Sergei Gonchar), and a solid defense to balance the upgrade in offense thought to be so desperately needed – and addressed in the Jagr trade.

In January 2008, the mood is different…the Caps are in the midst of another also-ran season, made more disappointing by the promise of playoffs swirling about the club in September. While improving, they remained in the bottom half of the standings, only recently escaping the league’s cellar. What’s more, the cornerstone of the club’s attempts at rebuilding – Alexander Ovechkin – is the subject of wild speculation of his whereabouts come the fall and whether or not a city such as Washington even “deserves” such a talent.

It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…

Dealing for Jagr was a matter of “branding” the club, in the vernacular of the time. With the addition of the superstar, the Caps would make a statement that they were: first, serious about competing with the Detroits, New Jerseys, and Colorados of the hockey world; and second, that they would be a serious player for talent to achieve those ends. The logic was sound…the results, disastrous.

The increasing frequency and volume as to the fate of Ovechkin, on the other hand, created its own echo chamber. The expected suspects – Larry Brooks, Eklund, Canadian media – weighed in with almost desperate scenarios (really, Carey Price is off the table in any trade talk concerning Ovechkin?...Ovechkin to Nashville?). As the conversation became more hyperbolic in its character, it leapt from the quasi-serious (the “deal” with the Los Angeles Kings at least had a whiff of seriousness in the thought put into it) to the silly, to the outright foolish (go ahead…try, try very hard to picture Ovechkin with a Predator logo on his chest).

It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...

When Jagr was acquired, the Caps – and their fans – hardly knew how to act. Unlike Pittsburgh, from whence Jagr came, Washington had not seen a star of Jagr’s caliber in his prime, certainly in hockey and arguably in any of the major team sports. Delirious with joy, there was a belief surrounding the club that this was the final, missing piece, obtained for a pittance.

In January 2008, pounded by years of disappointment, mediocrity, and – more recently – lottery-pick-inducing ineptitude on the ice, fans might be excused for harboring the spark of a thought that Ovechkin would leave the club and find himself perhaps wearing the bleu, blanc et rouge, instead of the red, white and blue. Assurances from club management that they expected Ovechkin to be a Cap for a long, long time might have been offered in good faith, but fans might not have been of a mind to believe the assurances unconditionally…the club had too long a history of disappointing them.

It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness...

2001-2002 was going to be The Year. Kolzig was only two years removed from a Vezina Trophy, Bondra had just posted a 45-goal season (halting a two-year slide in goal production) during which he led the league in power-play goals, Adam Oates was coming off a 69-assist season (would he get a hundred playing with Jagr?), Gonchar was coming off what at the time was a career year for him in goals-assists-points, they had the Dahlen-Halpern-Konowalchuk line to give opponents fits. At no point in the history of the franchise did things seem brighter.

When New Year’s Day 2008 dawned in Washington, the Caps had been losers of 180 of their previous 275 games and hadn’t been within a couple of time zones of the playoffs. At least the 1974-1975 club – the one that set a galactic, never-to-be-eclipsed record for ineptitude – had the charm of being record-settingly bad with the comic relief that attends such achievement. The Caps of the early 21st century inspired grumbles at best, empty seats and speculation as to relocation at worst. The only thing that made the club worth watching, frankly, was Ovechkin and his one-of-a-kind-until-the-next-one nights of goal scoring, hits, and enthusiasm.

It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...

In the summer of 2001, fans were looking at city maps, plotting where might be the best place to camp out for the parade after the Caps won the Cup…In the fall of 2007, fans were thinking, “is Alex going to be here?...are we going to even have a hockey club in a few years?

We had everything before us, we had nothing before us...

In the summer of 2001, the Caps would exact their revenge for a decade of disappointments at the hands of the Penguins, using their home-grown star as the dagger. In January 2008, the Penguins had signed their own bright star to a five-year deal and were embarking on a winning streak that stood at eight games, and counting, lifting them to the third best record in the Eastern Conference…the Caps were mired in 13th place with five clubs to climb over just to make the playoff mix.

We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way…

In 2001, Caps fans were going to be rewarded for years of suffering in the purgatory of disappointment. The rapture was upon them, and Jagr would deliver them to the promised land. In 2008, they were heading for the exits, last in the NHL in attendance.

In short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only...

There will be comparisons between the Jagr deal (more the contract extension he signed in the wake of that trade – eight years (including an option year) for $88 million) and the Ovechkin contract extension. Like all comparisons, they will be imperfect…

Jagr was brought in, Ovechkin is home-grown. Jagr could only win hearts in the long term if he delivered on the promise his acquisition entailed – a Stanley Cup. When he didn’t, and more to the point, when the Caps foundered, the bloom was off that rose quickly. By the time he left in a trade with the Rangers, no one was sorry to see him go. Ovechkin is “one of us.” He is a Cap – even at this point in his young career perhaps the best “home grown” Cap in the franchise’s history (with apologies to fans of Peter Bondra and those of Scott Stevens, who we do not include here since his best years came after his departure). What’s more, Jagr’s personality – at times alternately moody, distant, and surly – worked against him, while Ovechkin’s – enthusiastic, lacking inhibition on or off the ice, personable – endears him that much more to fans.

Jagr was the last piece, Ovechkin the first. Jagr came into a club with a personality, one that might have been described as a “lunch pail” mind set. It was the personality of the franchise since Rod Langway was acquired in the early 1980’s. Being more of the creative, intuitive, free-wheeling sort in his playing style, Jagr did not mesh easily with his on-board teammates, and that made for ill-feelings as time wore on, and Jagr and his teammates found themselves on different pages of the songbook. Ovechkin was the asset around which the club would be built. As the first overall pick in 2004 – at the dawn of the rebuild – he was the first piece applied to a canvas around which the rest of the work could be completed. The task of finding complementary assets is easier if the cornerstone is laid first than if one tries to set it into an existing structure.

There is also the matter of “money” versus “term.” Large signings of the sort made with Jagr were not rare in sports in 2001, even in hockey (several players were making, when adjusted for inflation, more than Ovechkin will make in any year under this deal). What made Jagr’s contract extension different was the term – seven years and an option. That kind of commitment was not common in sports at the time, certainly not in hockey. By 2008, though, long terms deals – while not common – are not rare, either. Alex Rodriguez has signed two ten-year deals in his baseball career. Rick DiPietro signed a 15-year deal with the New York Islanders, and several free agents of this past summer signed long (greater than five years) deals with NHL clubs. Ovechkin’s deal is the first nine-figure contract in NHL history, and that will generate some buzz, and the 13 years will add some to it. But this is the environment in which sports and hockey exists these days.

Ultimately, as the wise man – I think it was me – said, “where you stand depends on where you sit.” There will be those (all those commentators clamoring for Ovechkin to be rescued from the backwater of Washington, primarily) who will view this as merely a money grab by Ovechkin. Caps fans, on the other hand, will exhibit short memories and go giddy over the signing (maybe we can have a celebration at Dulles Airport). But this has a different “feel” than the Jagr contract. Because of the run-up to the Jagr trade – knowing that Pittsburgh was selling off assets it could not afford to sign in the long term, that it was unlikely Jagr could be accommodated there, that Jagr was going to be the jewel of the free agency class the following year – money was the issue that seemed at the bottom of the matter. And behind that, the idea that Jagr held most of the cards (without the extension or a trade, he could walk for nothing the following year).

With Ovechkin, the matter is turned sideways. The Caps always had the last word in this. They could sign him, they could wait for offer sheets to be tendered, they could match, they could let him walk for draft picks. Ovechkin could exert influence, but not necessarily pressure. The Caps held most of the cards in this instance.

But when all is said and done, the best take on the matter probably comes from Ovechkin, himself. In his comments following his signing, he said, “Hockey is my life, and money is money. ... If you think about money, you stop playing hockey." Coming from another, it might have had the tinny sound of a rehearsed sports cliché. But with Ovechkin, who is nothing if not candid, it rings like crystal.

And so, with that, we go from the beginning to the end of this tale, and to what Caps fans hopes the signing means…many years of competing for Stanley Cups and the memories those years will leave to look back upon…

"It is a far, far better thing that I do, than I have ever done; it is a far, far better rest that I go to than I have ever known."

Stepping Up

Well, the six-and-fifty-four (not to mention my math in the last post) was wrong...

...was it ever.

The new report on the Ovechkin signing is 13 years and $124 million. That qualifies as one helluva thunderclap rolling across the hockey landscape. And for a club that had been averse to the big free agent signing, it is a case of really stepping up to the plate and swatting one out of the ballpark.

With an appreciation for the dramatic flair -- drawing out the announcement and teasing fans with a statement that the original reports on the deal were wrong -- Ted Leonsis announced the mega-deal at a "meet-the-team" function last night at Verizon Center.

Speaking of the deal, Leonsis said, "I'm a risk-taker. And if you're going to make a long-term investment, who else would you do it with?"

It's "risk-taking," to be sure, but there is another element to this, too. It's putting one's money where one's mouth is. Ted has said all the right words about what he thinks the state of the league is and its prospects for improvement in the business side of the sport. In signing Ovechkin to this long a term and this high an average salary, he's gone past words into concrete actions, banking on the league to continue its growth and thus making the $10 million he will pay in each of the last seven years of the deal a bargain for the club.

Is it a "good" deal? There will be no shortage of commentary on that subject in the days to come, although that's the kind of thing that is only going to be known in retrospect. It is a risk, as Ted suggested, but for stepping up like this and backing up his talk on the league's prospects with a signing of this magnitude, we think Ted and the club deserve a lot of respect.

Free at last, free at last...thank God Almighty, we are free at last...Ovechkin will stay.

There are reports emerging that Alexander Ovechkin has signed a contract extension with the Washington Capitals. RDS.ca and TSN.ca report that the deal is for six years and $54 milion. The team at On Frozen Blog has more.

If true, the short term benefit is a end to the drum beat of "Alex shouldn't play in Washington" talk. That is worth the good news of the signing on its own merits. It also removes a potential distraction from a club that doesn't need one as it tries to climb the standings on the heels of recent success.

In the mid term, it will turn attention to the status of Mike Green, who is also a restricted free agent at the end of this season, and whose signing is more problematic in that one can more readily imagine scenarios in which an offer sheet would not be matched. That's not to say it is likely -- we think it unlikely -- but one can imagine more plausible scenarios that could unfold to carry Green to another city.

In the long term, the signing might be a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that, if reports are true, the cap hit is less than Ovechkin might have commanded in a bidding situation where one need only have one of 29 other teams offer a max contract to make the lives of the Caps management more difficult. It is more than that for which Sidney Crosby signed, which will irk purists and Crosby fans, but does provide the Caps some additional wiggle room in payroll, if they choose to use it.

On the other hand, the deal -- reportedly -- is for six years, expiring at the end of the 2012-2013 season, at which time Ovechkin will be a few months shy of his 28th birthday. Absent being spirited away by aliens, Ovechkin would be entering the prime of his career (isn't that a scary thought) and would have the world of hockey at his feet without the encumbrance of "restricted" before the term, "free agent." In this sense, the term of the deal becomes the window in which the Caps have an opportunity to build a consistent contender and to win a Stanley Cup. In that sense, the signing has just made the job of the Caps to build that contender a bit more urgent.

But those are all distant clouds -- ones to be mindful of, but not so much so as to detract from the bright sunny day before Caps fans. And a sunny, sunny day it is. Ovechkin will stay.

A TWO point night...Caps 2 - Avalanche 1

Two five game stretches, two five-game tests. The five-game stretch from December 27^th through January 5^th was a test of the state of the Capitals’ progress under coach Bruce Bourdreau, whether the club could compete against quality teams. All five teams in that stretch were in the top-eight in the East. The Caps passed that test, going 3-1-1.

The second five game stretch started tonight and represents a test of will – whether in this five-game home stand the Caps are now the kind of team that can impose their will on an opponent and leave visitors unfulfilled. The first game of this test was a good one for the Caps. A depleted Colorado Avalanche team came to Verizon Center on the heels of a 1-0 loss to Detroit, and the Caps played with the kind of tempo that was meant to take what was left in their legs away from the Avalanche.

The result was a 2-1 win for the home team, the score hardly indicative of the pace of the game for most of the 60 minutes.

Scoreless through two periods of up-and-down-with-no-result hockey, the Caps broke through in the third on the sticks of the unlikeliest of producers. Matt Bradley collected the puck off a faceoff in the Avalanche zone and circled wide into the left wing corner. He backhanded a pass to Brooks Laich at the inside edge of the left wing circle. Laich one timed the puck, finding the back of the net past Colorado goalie Jose Theodore’s blocker on the far side. Laich was credited with the goal, but the decision was changed to credit Donald Brashear with the marker, he being at the top of the crease in an effort to screen Theodore and deflecting the puck on its way by.

The Caps lengthened the lead with just under four minutes to go when Boyd Gordon chipped the puck out of the Caps’ end to David Steckel skating up the right wing. Quintin Laing jumped into the play, and as Steckel was closing on the Colorado net he tried to center Laing, who had a half-step on defenseman Lyle Cumiskey. The puck never made it to Laing, though, as it deflected off Cumiskey and behind Theodore, who was sliding across in anticipation of Laing’s attempt.

Colorado spoiled Caps’ goalie Olaf Kolzig’s shutout bid when Marek Svatos and Wojtek Wolski executed a slow-developing give-and-go that left Svatos in alone on Kolzig. Svatos roofed the puck over Kolzig’s glove, and one might have been excused for thinking, “you guys sure aren’t going to make things easy on yourselves, are you?”

But Kolzig, who hasn’t stolen a lot of games this year, robbed Colorado of everything but their fillings, capping a superb effort by flashing a pad out of nowhere to deny Tyler Arnason on a spin-around drive from the slot with 35 seconds left, and then denying Arnason once more with 14 seconds left when he was Arnason was allowed to walk through a seam along the right wing circle for a clear shot.

For the Caps, this was a case of the unsungs stepping into the spotlight:

- Quintin Laing hurling his body in front of successive shots when the game was in the balance in the third period.

- Boyd Gordon following Laing’s lead and sliding in front of a shot late, coming up limping, but not bad enough to keep him from pursuing the play in the Caps’ end.

- Steve Eminger playing a “keep-it-simple” game and exacting more than a pound of flesh with four big hits and – yes – a blocked shot.

- Brooks Laich continuing a string of solid games with an assist (on the goal he didn’t get), three hits, and…three blocked shots.

- Matt Bradley, who – if he didn’t get a Gordie Howe hat trick – managed a hat trick of some kind…an assist, a fight, and winning the only draw he took.

It was an odd game in this respect…if you consider the “skill” guys to be Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Michael Nylander, Nicklas Backstrom, and Viktor Kozlov, they combined for 11 shots, no goals, no assists, and -2.

And yet, the Caps won.

Why?...they paid a price to win. 13 skaters had hits (25 total, to 19 for Colorado), ten had blocked shots (18 total, to 14 for Colorado). They played the kind of game they needed to play against a team that played the night before – they put pressure on them early, bottling them up in their own zone. Then, they punished them when they did try to move the puck.

The Caps probably would have won this game more comfortably but for an excellent performance by Theodore, who denied Laich and Semin on one-on-none situations, denied Boyd Gordon on a fine chance when Gordon had a step on the Avalanche defenseman. Ovechkin rang the puck off the post twice, for good measure.

It was a low scoring game, but not a “low chances” game. There were equal measures fine goaltending and luck that some pucks didn’t find the net when the goalies were in vulnerable positions

It would be hard to find poor performances in this one for the Caps. Kozlov had another one of those nights when he looks like he’s skating around over streches without a clear purpose. And Alexander Semin just hasn’t found a comfort zone this season. Except for the chance denied by Theodore, he was uncertain in handling the puck and seemed rather disinclined to shoot the puck.

The defensemen, to a man, had solid games. Colorado played a defense that looked “rope-a-dopish,” allowing Mike Green to skate the puck into high scoring potential areas often. Jeff Schultz avoided the once-a-game brain spasm that has crept into his game lately and had just a good, solid game. Shaone Morrisonn did a splendid job playing cover for Green’s rushes. Milan Jurcina looked more like the Jurcina of last year, stopping Colorado players in their tracks. Eminger got some more minutes tonight, and he took advantage of the opportunity.

It was, even if the score doesn’t suggest it, a dominating performance by the Caps in terms of controlling tempo and territory. It was a good test to start this five-game test. The trick will be to carry this over to the game against the Flyers on Sunday, who will be another team on the back-end of a back-to-back when they visit Verizon Center.

But for now, this one should be a nice birthday present for the coach and The Big Guy. Happy birthday, Bruce and Ted.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Avalanche, January 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Iowa, Schmyoah…Obama, Schmobama…Hillary, Schmillary…Huckabee, Schmuckabee...there is one, and only one issue on the minds of the public…

WHERE IS ALEX GOING?

We have a new entry in the sweepstakes…Nashville.*

The Peerless has invited the cream of the punditocracy take a break from mundane election matters to prognosticate on the important issue of where Alex will be playing next year.

George Will: "Well, the great American essayist H. L. Mencken said that, ‘it is even harder for the average ape to believe that he has descended from man,’ and to think that Ovechkin is going to play anywhere but in Washington is to lend credence to Mencken’s sentiment.”

Bill O’Reilly: "George, where do you find these quotes?”

GW: “Most of them, I just make up…it’s not like any of you people do any fact checking.”

BO’R: “Well look…as usual, you point headed types just over-think and over-complicate and over-do these kinds of things…follow the money. Ovechkin is going to end up with whatever team offers him the most money, and if you think otherwise, you’re probably a namby-pamby bleeding heart Clinton lover.”

Keith Olbermann: “You…you…you IDIOT! You and your cabal of conservative conspiracists! Always the money. You’d think all this fine young man was about was the money. He’s going to play in Canada…you conservatives won’t rest until you’ve driven him out. You’ve made this country a mess, and of course…Ovechkin is – wink wink – 'Russian.' You guys are still fighting the Cold War, and…”

George Stephanopoulos: “Keith, calm down, you’re makeup is going to melt. We all know that Ovechkin is going to consider all the offers that come his way, but being a good son, he’ll do what Mama – who is acting as his agent – thinks best. And then he’ll end up playing in Washington, unless he doesn’t.”

GW: “George, have you ever taken a position on anything?”

GS: “I take many positions, George, sometimes on the same issue. It’s called ‘having an open mind.'”

BO’R: “Typical wishy-washy liberal crap.”

KO: “Why don’t you take your size-14 feet and CRAM THEM UP YOUR TIGHT –

GS: “guys, guys…let’s be civil.”

GW: "Mencken said it best…'Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats.'”

BO’R: “you get a two-for-one coupon at Borders for a Mencken collection, George?”

GS: “can we get back to the subject…”

BO’R: “shut up, ya dwarf…”

KO: “Pick on somebody your own size, Jethro…”

GW: “The writer Elliott Hubbard once said, ‘If you can't answer a man's arguments, all is not lost; you can still call him vile names.’”

[all]: “SHUT UP!!!”

We’ll let the boys continue their fun…we have a game tonight. Colorado comes into this game with virtually an identical record (22-17-3) to that which they had on this date last year (21-18-2). The difference is that while last year they came into January 9th riding a three game winning streak, they will enter tonight’s game as losers of five of their last six, including a 1-0 loss to their archrival Red Wings in Detroit last night. While the Avalanche has lost two games in this stretch to the Red Wings, they’ve also lost three to Phoenix (twice, once in overtime) and Los Angeles, both clubs behind Colorado in the standings. Here are the particulars about Colorado’s performance during this slump:

Record: 1-4-1
Goals for/against: 10-18
Power play: 0-17 (0.0 percent)
Penalty killing: 13-17 (76.5 percent)

That power play is giving the Avalanche fits. They are three for their last 44 chances (6.8 percent) since going three-for-six in a 9-5 win against St. Louis on December 9th. In fact, since that night, the Avalanche light has gone out on offense. 28 goals in their last 14 games.

Part of the drought is having lost Joe Sakic to surgery for a sports hernia (last played on November 30th) and Ryan Smyth to a fractured ankle (last played on December 31st). But there are other factors at play, too:

Paul Stastny, who started the season like a house a’fire (15-26-41, +14 in his first 33 games), is 0-3-3, -5 in his last nine games.

Milan Hejduk is without a point and a -5 in his last seven games.

Andrew Brunette is 0-2-2, -1 in his last six.

…these are the top three active scorers for the Avs this season.

Jose Theodore has manned the nets for the last two games, and while he’s had a lackluster season so far (8-9-1, 2.68, .895), he’s done his part in these two games, stopping 47 of 49 shots and splitting the two decisions. Since Theodore played last night in the 1-0 loss in Detroit, it is entirely likely that Peter Budaj will get the nod tonight. Budaj has slightly better numbers than Theodore in the goals against and save percentage departments (2.63, .901), but he does have a better win-loss record (14-8-2). As if a mirror image to Theodore’s play of late, Budaj is 0-2-1 in his last three decisions, with a 2.97 GAA and .892 save percentage.

The Caps are banged up. Colorado probably has bigger guns out in Sakic and Smyth, but the Caps make up for it in quantity. Goaltender Brent Johnson is nursing a knee injury, defensemen Tom Poti and Brian Pothier are both dealing with the dreaded “upper body injury, Alexander Semin has a dented butt, and Chris Clark has a groin injury. Michael Nylander is not healthy, either.

The Caps are 4-1-1 in their last six outings, but it will be tough to add to that in light of the medical reports. They’ve been doing it by racing up and down the ice, outscoring opponents 25-21 (the loss in regulation coming in the game where they didn’t score any goals, a 2-0 loss to Boston).

When healthy (or at least not in a slump such as that in which they now find themselves), Colorado is a club that can keep up – they are tied with the Caps and the Penguins in goals-per-game (2.79), but they’ve been better in keeping the puck out of the net (2.81 goals-against-per-game to 3.01 for the Caps). It might be another of those high-scoring contests the Caps have had lately, which means…

Caps 5 – Avalanche 4


* Thanks to Hooks Orpik at The Sweater Ted for pointing that out to us (even if it was a link to Eklund)…TST is a Penguins blog, but unlike the usual article of this specie, it’s a good one. You should check it out.

NHL All-Star Starters Announced

The NHL released the names of the starters to the All-Star Game to be played in Atlanta on January 27th. Here they are:

Eastern Conference:

F - Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh
F - Daniel Alfredsson, Ottawa
F - Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay
D - Andrei Markov, Montreal
D - Zdeno Chara, Boston
G - Martin Brodeur, New Jersey

Western Conference:

F - Henrik Zetterberg, Detroit
F - Pavel Datsyuk - Detroit
F - Jarome Iginla, Calgary
D - Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit
D - Dion Phaneuf, Calgary
G - Roberto Luongo, Vancouver

Caps fans will note that Alexander Ovechkin is not on the Eastern Conference roster of starters. This is not surprising, and frankly isn't that big a deal.

Starters are selected by fan vote. And while hockey fans are just as intelligent as fans of other sports, they are probably just as parochial. Look at the cities from which the starters hail. These are cities where hockey is followed closely, and in the case of Crosby it is a matter of his iconic position in the sport that transcends geography (how could it be otherwise?...the league markets him 24/7). Looked at another way -- as a function of total attendance -- the three teams represented in the Western Conference have the top three overall (home and road) attendance averages in the Western Conference. Fans pay attention to these clubs.

Ovechkin will appear in the All-Star game. So will Ilya Kovalchuk and Dany Heatley, either of whom also have a case that could be made for their selection as a starter among the forwards for the East.

The All-Star game is a "fans" game. Since they pay the freight in the NHL by buying tickets and snatching up merchandise, I fail to see a problem with their picking who they want to start this mid-season exhibition. That Ovechkin failed to garner enough votes to merit a starting position is more a reflection of the state of the Capitals -- and their inability to draw much interest (15th in home attendance in the East, 14th in overall attendance) -- than it is a reflection of Ovechkin's stature as a player or as a celebrity in the league.

Ovechkin isn't a starter, but he'll be there. I suspect he'll be just as entertaining to watch as if he'd been selected a starter.

The Peerless' First Half Awards

OK, so here we are at just about the half-way point in the 2007-2008 season. And what would the half-way point be without some half-baked awards from some half-assed blogger who is about half-way in the bag.

So...without further ado...

Calder Trophy: given to the player selected as the most proficient in his first year of competition in the National Hockey League.

Patrick Kane, Chicago Blackhawks. Kane leads all rookies in assists and total scoring. Since weathering a four-game scoreless streak in November, he has been held off the scoresheet only five times in 17 games. He is currently on a six-game points streak (1-6-7, even).

Runners up: Nicklas Backstrom, Washington; Jonathan Toews, Chicago

The Ray Babbitt Award: given to the rookie selected as the most proficient in one game-deciding skill that has nothing to do with the competition of a hockey game in the National Hockey League.

Sam Gagner, Edmonton Oilers. Gagner is tied for the league lead in shootout goals and leads the league in those of the game-deciding variety (5). Edmonton has won 18 games this year, 11 of them via the shootout.

**********

Selke Trophy: given to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game.

Ryan Johnson, St. Louis Blues. Let’s think imaginatively (i.e., not recycling the same old names)…St. Louis is a much improved team. Why? Part of it is that they are seventh in the league in goals against average, fourth in penalty killing, and 11^th in 5-on-5 efficiency. Think that’s entirely a product of Manny Legace? Johnson is sixth in the league in short-handed ice time on a team that is fourth in the league in penalty killing.

Runners up: Samuel Pahlsson, Anaheim; John Madden, New Jersey

Sulky Trophy: given to the player who best excels at causing fans to sulk day after day over his defensive performance.

Steve McCarthy, Atlanta Thrashers. -18 in 28 games. The “good” news?...he hasn’t had a minus game in any of his last four. The “bad” news?...he’s had one – count ‘em, one – plus game this season.

**********

Adams Trophy: presented by the National Hockey League Broadcasters' Association to the NHL coach adjudged to have contributed the most to his team's success.

Andy Murray, St. Louis Blues. The Blues have realized a 14-point improvement over this time last year with a team that does not have a lot of high-end talent.

Runners up: Denis Savard, Chicago; Bruce Boudreau, Washington

Addams Trophy: presented to the NHL coach adjudged to be so frightening behind the bench as to scare small children and Darren Pang.

John Tortorella, Tampa Bay Lightning. OK…go look up “gruff” in the dictionary. We’ll wait a moment…you saw Tortorella’s picture there, right? There isn’t a player he won’t throw under the bus. We’re thinking that Lightning bus has spent more time on the rack at Meineke getting the undercarriage checked than it has in service, given the performance of the Lightning this year and the number of bodies that might have found their way to the pavement.

**********

Norris Trophy: given to the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.

Nicklas Lidstrom, Detroit Red Wings. Yeah, it’s easy to pick Slick Nick, but he leads all defensemen in scoring; he leads in plus-minus, he’s second in ice time. What more does one want?

Runners-up: Sergei Zubov, Dallas; Zdeno Chara, Boston

Chuck Norris Trophy: given to the player who demonstrates an orneriness and propensity for pugilism as to make men cringe and women (or Don Cherry) swoon, despite starring in a bad production.

Daniel Carcillo, Phoenix Coyotes. “Does not work or play well with others”…that had to be in bold on his report card as a child. 444 total playing minutes, 172 penalty minutes, 10 fighting majors, four misconducts, two game misconducts, and he maimed the partridge in the pear tree.

**********

Vezina Trophy: given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be the best at this position.

Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks. If there is any lingering doubt over who is the best goalie in the NHL, it should have evaporated in the wake of Luongo’s first half. Second in goals-against average, third in save percentage, and doing it for a team that does not generate a lot of offense (20^th in goals/game). He is not the head-and-shoulders winner, but he is the clear winner of the first half.

Runners up: Evgeni Nabokov, San Jose; Henrik Lundqvist, New York Rangers

Ve-sieve-ina Trophy: given to the goalkeeper most likely to inspire creative use of profanity by fans and coaches alike.

Andrew Raycroft, Toronto Maple Leafs. 2-6-5, 3.79, .878. Given how grouchy Leafs fans can be, he might be the only goalie in the league who wears his pads home from the rink out of self-defense.

**********

Pearson Trophy: presented annually to the "most outstanding player" in the NHL.

Vincent Lecavalier, Tampa Bay Lightning. In the midst of what is becoming a Titanic season for the Lightning (like the ship…not the adjective), Lecavalier has continued and built upon his outstanding performance of the past few years. He is on a pace to set career marks in goals (55), assists (66), points (121), and power play goals (14).

Runners up: Dany Heatley, Ottawa; Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh.

Pavel Bure Trophy: presented annually to the player “mostly out standing at the far blue line” in the NHL.

Ilya Kovalchuk, Atlanta Thrashers. OK, so he’s not as bad as he used to be, but it is a head-scratcher how a guy with 33 goals and 57 points in the first half could be a -7 (hint…10 of those goals and 21 of those points are on the power play).

**********

Hart Trophy: given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.

Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames. There are two elements we think important to this award. First, the award is for the most valuable player…not necessarily the best. Second, the player is judged in the context of value to his team. Iginla is the man in Calgary…28 percent more points (60) than the next player on the roster (Kristian Huselius, 47), more than twice as good a plus-minus (19) as the next best player (four players are at +9), 50 percent more power play goals (12, compared to eight for Daymond Langkow), twice as many game-winners (six; two other players each have three), almost three more minutes per game than the next highest forward. Absent Iginla, it isn’t likely that this is a top-eight team, whereas they currently lead the Northwest Division and occupy the three-seed in the Western Conference. In terms of value to his team, Iginla stands at the top of the heap.

Runners up: Roberto Luongo, Vancouver; Alexander Ovechkin, Washington

Heartless Trophy: given to the player judged to be least likely to have shown up in the first half.

Jaromir Jagr, New York Rangers. Caps fans know the story…spend a mint for a guy, then spend more to find players to play with him…watch how things don’t so much unfold as unravel. The Rangers – well, the Rangers and Caps – are paying $8.36 million for Jagr this year, and they added Chris Drury and Scott Gomez (to the tune of another $14.4 million) to help elevate Jagr’s game. And for that…he’s got roughly the same production as Tomas Plekanec…and that’s after going 4-11-15 in his last ten games. Not a small consideration in the Rangers’ dead last ranking in Eastern Conference scoring. He’ll be spending – so to speak – his second half struggling to qualify for his option for next year.

**********

We kid, because we love. For all of these guys, we’re talking about members of a community of a few hundred that represent the very best in the world at what they do. And we respect their effort…well, except maybe for Jagr.

Barry Melrose...Caps fan?

This was posted on ESPN a couple of days ago, but Melrose's mid-year trophy picks include a couple of Caps among the finalists and one "winner."

The Star Quarterback and the Girl Next Door

The star quarterback is going steady with the girl next door, and the prom queen seems beside herself with jealousy.

Such is where we seem to find ourselves with respect to Alex Ovechkin, Washington, and Montreal.

Once more, we are treated to a column in the Montreal Gazette that expresses longing at the possibility – remote though it is – that the “star quarterback” will forgo the plain girl next door for the prom queen, that Alex Ovechkin will forsake Washington and succumb to temptation to play for the Montreal Canadiens come October.

The “prom queen” in this case has everything going for it…24 Stanley Cups, a history that defines the term “legendary” for the sport of hockey – both with respect to the club and its long list of hall of fame players – and a fine arena filled every night with some of the most ardent and knowledgeable fans on the planet. And, in a new twist, the prom queen is apparently Russian.

Jack Todd goes over ground he’s plowed before, adding this time that Ovechkin did not dismiss a desire to play in Montreal out of hand in the post game interviews, and that after all, not only would the Canadiens offer all that history and adulation from a rabid fan base, but the Canadien locker room would be scarcely different than that he might find playing for Moscow Dynamo – Andrei and Sergei Kostitsyn, Ovechkin’s “great and good friend” Andrei Markov, Alexei Kovalev, Mikhail Grabovski. And if that isn’t enough, Ovechkin just might leave for the real thing – an $8 million tax-free pay day in Russia. But he might, “for the right inducement - say 15 years at $10 million per year… elect to play in a place where his talents will be appreciated, which will never be the case in the U.S. capital.” That place is, of course, Montreal.

What we suspect Todd knows, but in the blindness of desire has set aside, is that the matter is not Ovechkin’s to “elect.” He can influence the process, make his desires known, even forgo the NHL to return to Russia. But as a matter concerning from which city he draws an NHL paycheck, the decision rests with Washington. And not matching terms of an offer sheet tendered to Ovechkin, should it come to that, just isn’t an option for this franchise. As for a trade?...there is no conceivable trade that would bring back anything approaching equivalent value. With there being the right of first refusal held by the Capitals, there is no undue pressure to take a “less than market value” trade, as might exist if the player could walk free and clear at season’s end.

But there is a much more basic problem with the whole argument. …Ovechkin hasn’t given any indication he is unhappy with the girl next door.

True, Ovechkin responded to a reporter’s question yesterday on the matter of how he likes playing in Montreal that, “"This is my favourite city. The crowds, the noise, the music. It's a great place to play. I love to be here." But that is not the same as saying “I want to play for the Canadiens.” And while it is also true that Ovechkin can’t, as a practical matter, go around making that sort of statement, it is quite a leap of logic to conclude that he does not like playing in Washington. The personality he shows to the public in D.C. is hardly that of a player checking airline schedules for the first flight out of DC at season’s end (unless it is to head back home to Russia for home and vacation).

The unspoken theme here – and it is always the theme – is that Washington doesn’t deserve Ovechkin, and [fill in the name of your favorite hockey team] does. One can almost hear the prom queen spitting out the words under her breath, “she doesn’t deserve him, he should be with me.”

Well, sometimes, the star quarterback finds happiness with the girl next door.