The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, February 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Game 56 of the season for the Capitals is as big a Game 56 as a Game 56 gets as the good guys DO NOT visit the Carolina Hurricanes in Raleigh, NC, (like we said in version 1.0 of this entry), but host them at Verizon Center.

For those of you needing a recap, the Capitals have completed a 34-game march from the bottom of the Eastern Conference to the top of the Southeast Division and a three-seed in the conference standings. With a chance to wrest the top spot away from the Caps on Thursday, the Atlanta Thrashers canuckled under the superb goaltending of Roberto Luongo as Vancouver escaped Georgia with a 2-1 win.

So now, the Caps have a chance NOT to blow into Carolina (see above), but swirl around the Hurricanes, and LET THE HURRICANES limp back to the Piedmont like a weak breeze…down by three points.

But to do that, the Caps must beat a veteran, battle-tested group that has been able to withstand the fierce winds of adversity this year…to help us peer into the eye of the Hurricanes, we have with us some very famous…well, Hurricanes. We have with us Diane, the first billion dollar hurricane…Lenny, or “Ol’ Lefty, who wreaked havoc on Caribbean Islands from the west…Katrina, who spoiled the party in New Orleans.., and, of course, Wilma, the most powerful Atlantic storm recorded.

Lenny…let’s start with you. You came at those islands from a direction no one would associate with a hurricane. How do you liken that to what Carolina faces now, being in second place looking up at the Caps?

Lenny: “Well, it’s getting late in the season, just like when I strolled through the Caribbean in November 1999. And that time of year, you’re beat up, it’s been a long season, you have nicks and bruises and the odd wind shear. You have to have focus, determination, and a strong eye wall to make a difference at this time of the year. That’s the challenge for the Hurricanes, to make sure their effort doesn’t wane.”

Diane, the Hurricanes are dealing with some critical injuries at the moment – Justin Williams, Chad LaRose, Matt Cullen, Dennis Seidenberg…critical cogs that have missed, and in some cases will continue to miss, time with the club. Will the Hurricanes pull the trigger on a trade?

Diane: “Well, they could. They have a little bit of cap room to accommodate a deal, but wholesale changes don’t seem to be in the cards. The trouble is that with the injuries, they have a greater variety of needs. They might have been in the market for a defenseman, but now they might have to look at some forward help, too.”

In other words, the situation blows…

Diane: “Like a category-five storm over Jamaica.”

Katrina, you might be the most famous of our guests here. But the Hurricanes don’t seem to have that star wattage you see on other teams, especially for one not too far removed from a Stanley Cup.

Katrina: “Oh cher, these Hurricanes…there might not be a category-five player on the team, but they have a lot of category three and four guys – Eric Staal, Ray Whitney, and of course, the storm surge himself, Rod Brind’Amour.”

Why “storm surge?”

Katrina: “He’s so strong in the face off circle and on defense, he’s as relentless as a storm surge heading up Mobile Bay.”

Wilma…you know powerful. No doubt you’ve been keeping up with the media attention surrounding Alex Ovechkin lately – his goal scoring, his taking over the points-scoring lead, his physical play.

Wilma: “I’ve seen more highlights of him on TV lately than I have Jim Cantore…”

It’s not surprising…but my question is, is Ovechkin the most powerful force of nature in the National Hockey League at the moment?

Wilma: “Oh, without a doubt. He’s relentless. He reminds me of…well, me marauding across the Yucatan in 2005. And hit?...what he does to defenders is like what I did to Naples, Florida.”

But hurricanes eventually weaken and blow themselves out…do you see this for Ovechkin?

“Yeah, maybe in about 15 years…”

Well, Caps fans will be hoping Ovechkin, Semin, Kozlov, Green, and the rest of the boys will keep the pressure on the Hurricanes, who are reeling a bit at the moment, having gone 4-7-0 in their last 11 games (two of the wins came in overtime). The particulars:

Record: 4-7-0
Goals for/against: 30/37
Power play: 6/45 (13.3 percent)
Penalty killing: (33/41 (80.5 percent)

Number of games giving up three shorthanded goals, including two on the same shift: one (against the Islanders on January 22^nd, a 6-3 loss)

Carolina has spread what limited scoring they’ve had (for them) around. Fifteen different skates have at least one goal over the last 11 games. Eric Staal leads with four. Brind’Amour has been carrying more than his share of the load as well with 3-9-12 over these games.

Whether a combination of injuries and slumps, though, the Hurricanes have lacked for some secondary scoring. Ray Whitney has only one goal in this stretch, but does have six assists. Erik Cole is 1-3-4.

The Hurricanes have made one move – one that might strike some as a bit desperate. Left winger Sergei Samsonov, acquired by the Chicago Blackhawks last June, was a disaster in the Windy City (0-4-4, -7 in 23 games). He was waived a month ago and claimed by Carolina with the idea of adding some missing oomph to their offense. Well, maybe it hasn’t been an “oomph,” but he has added four goals and five assists in the 12 games in which he’s played.

With Carolina averaging only 2.7 goals a game over these last 11, it’s fallen to the goalies to pick up the slack. Tonight’s likely goaltender – Cam Ward – has all the decisions in this stretch (4-7-0), and is 3.20 and .888 to go along with it.

Carolina, though, struggles on special teams, especially the power play. Their 80.5 percent efficiency mark in the last 11 games is actually better than their league-worst 77.0 percent number in that category. The power play is competent (18.0 percent for the season, 12^th in the league), but has been off the pace of late.

For a game in early February, this is as big as it gets. That’s what having four teams within two points of each other fighting for what is likely to be the only playoff spot coming out of the division will do.

A win does several things for the Caps:

- It maintains and expands their lead in the Southeast
- It preserves the “game in hand” they have on Carolina
- It would be their first three-game winning streak since winning four in a row, January 15-21.
- It would make for a decent weekend and a nice way to move into the game with the Rangers on Sunday.

There are the faintest hints at rumblings with the Caps, but the only rumbling that will be done tonight is that of the Caps storming up and down the ice to beat the Hurricanes…

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 3

...and honest, we are not abusers of prescription substances, much as a reading of the previous edition of this might suggest otherwise.

Caps in art...

The Peerless came upon this through, of all places, a Penguins web site...we like the idea, but one of the drawings has us wishing, if his head was this big he could just lay it across the goal, and no one would ever score.


It is nice work, though...check it out.

This guy's Don Zimmer...

So says Barry Melrose...



You decide...











Nah...Bruce didn't blow a 14 game lead with less than two months to play. And while we're at it with the ESPN boys, E.J. Hradek weighs in...

Nineteen Days to the Trade Deadline

It's coming fast, kids. And all over the hockey landscape, the questions will be of the sort, "where is Mats Sundin headed?"...or, "is Rob Blake headed to Detroit?"

We're thinking those are questions of the wrong sort, or at least that too much attention is paid to them. There is too much a "fantasy hockey" aspect to trades and such in the fan and media communities. There is another class of player that might be just as important as the one that includes names the casual fan would recognize.

Adam Schwartz digs into the matter over at NHL.com, where he looks at "the less-ballyhooed swap." It is an interesting walk down memory lane for those under-the-radar deals that contributed the "character" element to a playoff run.

The only problem we see is his 1998 example. The centerpiece of his example is Mike Keane (one of the best Stanley Cup "good luck charms" in history). Keane, traded to Dallas in the deal described, would skate for a Cup winner the following year and a finalist the year after. But if we're looking only at deals in the context of the year they were made, then one might consider the Capitals dealing Dwayne Hay and "future considerations" for Esa Tikkanen.

Tikkanen would play in 20 regular season games for the Caps at the end of the 1997-1998 season (2-10-12, -4, two game-winning goals) and would be an important ingredient in their march to the Stanley Cup final. He will be forever remembered by Caps fans for the goal he didn't score -- missing a virtual empty net in Game 2 of the finals when a goal would have given the Caps a third period two-goal lead and a leg up on tying that series. But Tikkanen was a character guy -- and a character (how many hockey players spend a portion of their youth refining their skating technique by learning figure skating?).

While we're at it, while it wasn't a trade the acquisition of Brian Bellows as a free agent in late March of that year was another of those "under-the-rader" deals that might mean more to a club's success than the marquee deals. Bellows was 6-3-9 in 11 games (with five power play goals and two game-winners) to close the regular season, and he was 6-7-13 in 21 playoff games.

These two guys managed four game winning goals between them in the last 12 wins of the regular season that year for the Caps. Arguably, without them the Caps wouldn't have advanced as far as they did.

So, as we careen toward the trading deadline, pay attention to the Sundin's and the Blake's...but watchout for the lunch-pail guys and where they end up. Don't be surprised if they go further into the playoffs.

As the season moves along...

Something else to consider when ponder the deserving for trophies at the end of the year...or just another glimpse at the magnitude of how special a season it is that is unfolding for Alex Ovechkin.

Below is chart depicting cumulative goals/assists/points per game. Put another way, it is a graphical representation of how it is Ovechkin got to his 46-27-73 in 55 games.


There really isn't anything surprising here. The troughs in the chart correspond to the period leading up to Thanksgiving. Through 21 games, Ovechkin was 14-9-23 (0.67 goals-per-game, 0.43 assists/game, 1.10 points-per-game).

Since then however, the goals and points per game have taken off (0.84/game and 1.33/game, respectively). Even assists -- which critics in some quarters point to as a lack of playmaking skill -- have increased from that 0.43/game to 0.49/game (a 14 percent improvement). But what matters is the nature of the lines -- they lean upward. This is happening in the midst of a pleasant reversal of the Caps' fortunes.

And these are "cumulative" effects over the entire season, warts and all. If you look only at these last 34 games, Ovechkin's 32-18-50 works out to per-game figures of 0.94-0.53-1.47. In terms we might all understand, that's a pace for a 77-43-120 season. It would be overkill -- hockey being the team sport that it is -- that Ovechkin is carrying the team on his back. But it would not be overkill to conclude that his has been the most valuable contribution to the reversal of fortune (at least among the players) over the last 34 games.

Over?

"Did you say 'over'? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no!"

It's stirring rhetoric such as that which would eventually elevate seven-year Faber College alumnus John Blutarsky to the United States Senate.

And, it might be a signature of these Washington Capitals. Their 20-10-4 record over the last 34 games is shot through with come-from behind wins. 13 times have they found themselves behind, only to earn points in those games (9-0-4). In five of those instances they were behind by two goals, only to come up with points (4-0-1).

Over?...not when the Caps are playing it's not.

The Capitals and the Hare

Much is made -- well, will be made -- of the fact that the Caps are 20-10-4 since Bruce Boudreau took over behind the Caps bench. It is a fine record, to be sure. But what is perhaps most striking about it is that it is built upon consistency, not streaks.

During these 34 games, the Caps' longest winning streak is four games, while their longest winless streak is three (twice). If you break the games down into five game segments, here is how they have played out:

1. 2-2-1 (five points)
2. 4-1-0 (eight points)
3. 1-2-2 (four points)
4. 3-1-1 (seven points)
5. 4-1-0 (eight points)
6. 3-2-0 (six points)
7. 3-1-0 (six points, and counting)

Total: 20-10-4 (44 points)

In no five-game segment were they more than one-point below .500, and in five of them (including the one not yet completed) they are over .500.

The Caps have churned out wins at a pretty constant rate over the last two-and-a-half months. As much as anything else, it suggests that one wouldn't expect those "dead spots" in the schedule where a lot of points get away in a hurry.

Put another way, the Caps haven't been and aren't streaky; they are consistently good and have been over the last 34-games. Certainly better than some folks give them credit for being.

We can almost hear The Chairman singing it...

Start spreading the news
We’re winnin’ these days
It’s time to be a part of it, D.C., D.C.
These vagabond boots
Are longing to skate
Right through the very heart of it
D.C., D.C.

We want to face off in the city that never sleeps
To find we’re king of the hill…tops in Southeast

These 14^th-place blues
Have melted away
We’ve made a brand new start of it
In old D.C.

If we can win games here
We’ll win them anywhere
It's up to you, D.C., D.C.

We want to face off in the city that never sleeps
To find we’re A-number one…
top of the list…
king of the hill…
A-number one…

These 14^th-place blues
Have melted away
We’re gonna make a brand new start of it
In old D.C.
If we can draw crowds here
We’ll do it everywhere

It's up to you, D.C., D.C.

So?...Who Won??

Shouldn't there have been an overtime, or a shootout, or at least another Hextall ceremony?

A FIRST PLACE night: Caps 4 - Flyers 3

Where it started, it finished.

The Caps were 6-14-1 on November 23^rd, when Bruce Boudreau stood behind an NHL bench for the first time in a 4-3 overtime win over the Philadelphia Flyers at Wachovia Center. Tonight, the Caps climbed all the way back from the cellar in the Southeast, assuming first place in the division on a 4-3 win over those Flyers in south Philly.

The win gives the Caps a 20-10-4 record under Boudreau, a fact that was almost unthinkable back in November. And they jumped Carolina and Atlanta in the standings to take a one-point lead.

The Caps played several games tonight…there was “Checking Game,” which comprised most of the first two periods, the only interruptions being a sweet feed from Mike Green to a streaking Brooks Laich, who finished the play by roofing a backhand past goalie Martin Biron, and a similarly nice feed from Daniel Briere – parked behind the Caps net – to Mike Knuble who banged the puck in at the far post past goalie Olaf Kolzig. Other than that, it was a largely close-to-the-vest effort by both teams.

Then, the Caps had their “Breakout Game” in the first part of the third period…in less than five minutes, Matt Bradley, Viktor Kozlov, and Alex Ovechkin netted goals to put the Flyers on their heels, If the game was in DC, folks would be starting to think about what sauce to have with their wings.

Then, the Caps decided that they’d take a walk on the adversity side of the street, only to find that it is better to be lucky than right. Simon Gagne skated in on Kolzig and fired the puck into Kolzig’s pads. Scott Hartnell, following up the play, pushed the puck, Kolzig, and maybe even Kate Smith into the net. From where I sat (in front of my TV), it sure looked like a goal – from two different angles it was clear that the puck was over the goal line. But “after further review,” someone decided that the whistle had blown due to a loss of sight of the puck.

No goal.

But the Flyers kept up the pressure, and the Caps apparently weren’t satisfied with making things easier on themselves…Sami Kapanen converted an odd bounce off the side of the Caps’ net into a shot that eluded Kolzig and cut the lead to two. Then, with less than a minute left, Randy Jones jumped into a space at the top of the crease as the Caps’ defensemen moved to cover other players and potted a goal to make things a lot more interesting than Caps fans cared to endure.

But then “Bottle Up Game” played out as the Caps didn’t allow Philadelphia to get any momentum down the ice in the last 54 seconds, and they killed the clock to preserve the win.

Although Flyer fans will mutter – well, actually they’ll wail…Flyer fans don’t do “mutter” – that the Hartnell goal was robbed from its rightful place on the scoreboard, the Flyers benefited from some quite generous interpretations of the rules, resulting in five power plays. And, give that club enough opportunities, they’ll convert. The Flyers were two-for-five on the advantage for the evening.

Tonight was “cream cheese” night for the Caps…they spread it around. Four different players had the four goals, nine players had points (only Mike Green had two – a pair of assists), 15 players recorded shots on goal, and 11 players were on the plus side of the ledger.

Philly wan’t a lot different – three different players had the three goals, eight players had points, 13 players had shots on goal.

Individually, both teams had some noteworthy efforts -- good and bad -- that don’t immediately leap off the score sheet…

- Tom Poti played in bad luck…he was on the ice for all three Flyer goals, but it would be hard to say he was the breakdown in any of them (although it was he who Kapanen snuck behind to get into position to score).

- It was Poti who hustled to keep the puck in the offensive zone that permitted Tomas Fleischmann to drop the puck for Kozlov and his goal.

- Although the Caps spread things around offensively, Derian Hatcher and Braydon Coburn took it in the ear with a -3, apiece, for the Flyers. Neither could do anything to prevent Ovechkin from collecting his own rebound and sweeping it under Biron for his 46^th of the year and his second straight game-winner (and eighth of the year – tops in the league).

- An odd stat for the Flyers…11 different players registered hits. But they had a total of only 15. And the duo of Hatcher and Coburn had one between them. Somewhere, Moose Dupont is rolling his eyes.

The climb back to the top of the division is finished, but now the chore is to stay there and put some space between themselves and the rest of the division. The Caps have 27 games left; 13 of them are against Southeast teams. And the Southeast campaign starts on Friday against Carolina. This kicks off a stretch where the Caps will play five of their next seven games against division rivals. It’s been a long time since the Caps have played such meaningful games this late in the season.

But that’s what first place teams do…

A public service...the four major food groups, Philly style

...enjoy the game...

...urp.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flyers, February 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And it’s the second half of a back-to-back tonight, this time a visit to The City of Brotherly Love to take on the Philadelphia Flyers.

Brotherly love…from the greek, “philos” (love) and “adelphos” (brotherly). It is a town that has a peculiar affection for two-word terms…cheese steak...water ice…soft pretzels…losing teams…bad attitude…goofy curse.

Goofy curse, you ask? Was The Curse of the Bambino goofy? Philly has Boston beat, though. They have a curse that has consumed all four pro sports teams – the Eagles, Phillies, 76ers, and of course…the Flyers.

It is The Curse of Billy Penn. For those of you not familiar with this ne plus ultra of sports curses, it has to do with City Hall, the statue of William Penn that stands atop it, and the place of that statue in the Philadelphia skyline and local sports. Until the mid-1980’s, the statue of William Penn stood taller than did any building in the city. Then someone thought it would be a good idea to build not one, but two buildings taller than Penn…and not by a little bit, but by almost 400 feet.

Since One Liberty Place rose to cast City Hall in a shadow a few blocks away, the city has been shut out of titles. The last title won by any of the major sports was by the Sixers in 1983. Since then, it’s the big oh-fer. And for the Flyers, it is 32 years and counting. The last time the Flyers won a title, in 1975…

- Olaf Kolzig was five years old

- Gary Bettman was a year out of Cornell University

- Wayne Gretzky hadn’t yet scored a point in the NHL

- The song of the year was “Love Will Keep Us Together,” by The Captain and Tenille

- The cost of a first-class postage stamp was ten cents

- Apollo and Soyuz would not rendezvous in space for another couple of months

- A couple of guys named Wozniak and Jobs started tinkering with ideas for a gadget that would be named after a fruit

- Saturday Night Live had not yet aired an episode

- We hadn’t yet seen the wars between Betamax and VHS

- Wheel of Fortune premiered on NBC

- David Letterman left Indiana for Los Angeles with hopes of being a comedy writer (“Good Times” would be a show on his resume)

- Robert E. Lee was pardoned by Gerald R. Ford

- Bill Clinton had not yet married Hillary Rodham (not until October)

- The lake freighter Edmund Fitzgerald hadn’t yet found its resting place at the bottom of Lake Superior (that was in November)

- Queen hadn’t released “A Night at the Opera” yet (again, November)

- A young whipper-snapper named Gates was yet to use the term “Micro-Soft” for the first time; he’d do that later in the year in a letter to Paul Allen

It’s been a while.

But the Flyers are back in their accustomed place, this year, of hobnobbing with the leaders in the Eastern Conference. Their record of 30-17-5 (they defeated Atlanta last night, 3-2) is a 32 point improvement over their 52-game record last year (13-32-7).

Since going 0-4-2 in mid-December, the Flyers are on a tear: 14-3-1 in their last 18 games. Their numbers are rather on the scary side as well…

Record: 14-3-1
Goals for/against: 63/44
Power play: 24/87 (27.6%)
Penalty killing: 64/79 (81.0%)

The penalty killing number is skewed by a ghastly effort against the Devils on January 22nd, when the Flyers gave up five goals in eight chances. If Philly gets a mulligan for that one, they are at 83.1 percent for the other 16 games, a more respectable figure.

Eighteen different skaters have those 63 goals, led by…Scott Hartnell. That’s right, Scott Hartnell, who is 12-8-20, +7 over the last 17 games. Not far behind is Mike Knuble (10-4-14, +2), and Jeff Carter (6-7-13, +6). Mike Richards (4-13-17, +1) and Daniel Briere (5-10-15, -6) have chipped in a bushel of helpers in the process.

Briere is an odd case. Among players having played at least 40 games, “Britney” (“spears?”…play on “Briere?”…ok, it’s a stretch) is tied for eighth worst plus-minus in the league, which is rather noteworthy on a team where only four such players having played at least 40 games are in the minus category (this doesn’t count Rory “Hanging Chad” Fitzpatrick, who is -12 in 19 games). At this point in the season, it’s nice for Flyer fans that Briere has 28 power play points (fourth in the league), but -16 probably wasn’t part of the script.

And speaking of power plays, that 27.6 percent number is better than their season average (24.8 percent), but not extraordinarily so. The key? Briere, Knuble, Mike Richards, and Kimmo Timmonen. Among them, they are a combined 33-68-101 with the man advantage. And avoiding their wrath has been a rare thing. Only three times in the last 14 games have the Flyers been held without a power play tally. They are 1-2-0 in those games, and their win came via a 1-0 shutout of Florida.

We're guessing the power play will be important.

Which brings us to the goalies. Martin Biron is 7-1-0 in 10 appearances during this 14-3-1 run. His 2.19 GAA and .926 save percentage have been excellent. He’s stopped his last 44 shots covering portions of three games. On the other hand, Antero Niittymaki has been just about as good in his ten appearances: 7-2-1, 2.69, .922. The difference is that Niittymaki has faced a whopping 34.6 shots-per-60 minutes, accounting for the higher GAA.

For both clubs, it is the back end of a back-to-back set. Brent Johnson and Niittymaki played last night for the Caps and Flyers, respectively. So, it would seem that we’ll see Olaf Kolzig and Biron tonight. The career numbers against the opponent would appear to favor Biron (10-6-1-1, 2.63, .909) ever so slightly over Kolzig (13-19-3-0, 2.73, .908). But if we’re looking at career numbers, Alex Ovechkin is 11-9-20, +4, in 11 career games against the Flyers. Since Ovechkin is also on quite a run of his own (20-11-31, +11 in 18 games since Christmas), this could be quite a matchup.

Philly’s hot, their scorers are scoring, their goalies are tending goal, and the game is in their barn. So…

Caps 4 – Flyers 3

We ain't purdy, but we're competitive...

Closing in on the 25-games-to-go mark, the top four teams in the Southeast are within one point of one another. The fight for the three-seed is going to be something these last two months.

A TWO point night: Caps 4 - Blue Jackets 3 (OT)

We said this before…there are 20 games in a season you’re going to win, and there are 20 you’re going to lose. It’s what you do with the other 40 that will make or break your season.

Well, this one was one of the 20 that the Caps should have lost. And they didn’t.

Snatching a 4-3 overtime win from the Columbus Blue Jackets was a product of persistence and talent…and a Columbus team that really had no offensive threat other than Rick Nash and Bill McUnseld (we’ll get to that in a moment).

For a while, it looked as if the game’s goals would all be scored into the same net – the one Columbus shoots at twice. Two for Columbus in the first, two for the Caps when they changed ends for the second, and another for Columbus in the third.

About that Columbus goal in the third. What in heaven’s name was referee Bill McUnseld…uh, McCreary thinking? How many times in a game do you see a referee in the middle of the ice, and then skating into a player. It was McUnseld’s….uh, McCreary’s pick on Shaone Morrisonn that sprung Elvin Nash…uh, Rick Nash free for a breakaway (his second of the game) and a goal on netminder Brent Johnson.

Nash’s first breakaway was not a product of luck but some boneheaded rookieness by Nicklas Backstrom, who (on a 5-on-3 power play) did not lift an attempted pass over Nash’s stick. Nash intercepted the pass and hot-footed it the other way, staying a step ahead of Alex Ovechkin long enough to fire the puck through Johnson’s pads and the first 3-on-5 scored against the Caps since 1991.

When Jason Chimera scored less than a minute later to give Columbus a 2-0 lead, Caps fans had to think things pointed to the big “L.”

Then the clubs changed ends…Alex Ovechkin skated down the left side, and using defenseman Adam Foote as a screen rifled the puck past Blue Jackets goalie Pascal Leclaire. We’re tempted to say that no one uses a defenseman as an offensive tool better than Ovechkin, who has a singular knack for shooting through their legs or just past their hips for goals that surprise goalies.

As the period was winding down, the Great Experiment in breaking up the top line paid dividends as Viktor Kozlov found Alexander Semin all alone at the far side of the Columbus net, and it was just left to Semin to roof a backhand over Frederick Norrena.

“Norrena,” you say? What happened to Leclaire? Well, he lost in a weird game of chicken, where each team ended up running the other’s goalie. Johnson had, by this time, been plowed into a few times, but had bounced back. On this occasion, Quintin Laing barreled down the middle and with a Blue Jacket defender piled onto Leclaire in his crease. Leclaire apparently took a stick in the neck, and his night was done. It was probably the biggest play of the game, or at least the one that made the rest possible, since the Caps were having a lot of trouble solving Leclaire.

Until Tom Poti finally got off the schneid…44 games with the Caps without a goal, 45 in a row in all dating back to last year. And it came on the most innocent of shots, just throwing it at the net and having it sneak under the bar where it rolled around the frame of the goal and came out, giving the impression that it hit the crossbar. After a brief review, the goal was confirmed, and the Caps tied the game.

Where Ovechkin won it with a goal that was largely a product of the open ice a 4-on-4 in overtime produces. He sent the puck cros-ice to Tom Poti, who returned it to him at the top of the right circle, and then it was a matter of picking a hole to shoot for. He found it, and the Caps had two points where none appeared to be forthcoming tonight.

If you look at the numbers, you’d think the Caps won this game by at least a couple of goals. They “out-attempted” (shots, shots blocked, missed shots) Columbus 71-54. Ovechkin had 18 attempts by himself (ten of them recorded as shots on goal). They held their own in hits (22-21 for the Blue Jackets) and in blocked shots (18 apiece). However, Columbus did two things very well. First, they dominated the faceoff circle, especially Mike Peca and Manny Malhotra, who won a combined 21 of 32 draws (Viktor Kozlov took it in the teeth on this one…he won one of 11 draws). Second, they really collapsed on the crease whenever the Caps shot the puck. That made for a lot of ricochets, blocked shots, and few rebounds…at least it seemed that way as the Caps spent a lot of the early going (like that 5-on-3 power play) trying to be cute, rather than gritty. Columbus looked like the Ken Hitchcock team it is – aesthetically challenged, but responsible and effective in the little things. They just don’t have enough talent past Nash or Nikolai Zherdev to pose a consistent offensive threat.

Tom Poti might have had his best game as a Cap, and that was not because of his goal…or his assist…but of his “save.” With Brent Johnson prone at the top of his crease, Poti covered the near post to block a shot that prevented a sure goal, then flicked the puck out of danger with his hand. He had five blocked shots overall.

Eric Fehr did not have his minutes rationed as one might have expected. He skated 16:46 and spent a lot of time aggressively forechecking. He had a couple of decent chances and looked as if he could be a shot in the arm on the top line. And the move of Kozlov to the second line paid immediate dividends, highlighting something about Alexander Semin’s effectiveness. Semin is a deft puckhandler, but often times of late, the longer he held the puck and dangled with it, so the probability that something bad would happen – he’d lose and edge, he’s whiff on a shot, he’d make a bad pass, or he’d just turn it over – increased. Tonight, he got the puck from Kozlov in a scoring area and immediately buried his opportunity. That will be something to watch for as this goes forward – is Semin handling the puck less and being more effective as a result?

It was a welcome two points, and now the theme might be, “make one, two…”

The Caps have that opportunity tomorrow in Philadelphia.

Kid Chemistry

So…will breaking up the first line to insert Eric Fehr and move Viktor Kozlov to the second line play havoc with that top line?

The Caps, of course, are hoping it will not. And frankly, the recent statistics suggest the hope is well-founded.

Let’s do two things…let’s assume that as Alex Ovechkin goes, so goes the top line. He’s the finisher, he’s the engine that makes that line hum. Next, let’s look at the 14-game stretch that began with Ovechkin’s first four-goal game against Ottawa and that ended with his second four-goal game, against Montreal.

In those games, Ovechkin scored 17 goals. Now…who assisted. Here they are, in their entirety (principal linemates Nicklas Backstrom and Viktor Kozlov in bold):

Goal 1: Mike Green, Alexander Semin
Goal 2: Tom Poti, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 3: Jeff Schultz
Goal 4: unassisted
Goal 5: Michael Nylander
Goal 6: John Erskine
Goal 7: Viktor Kozlov, Mike Green
Goal 8: Brooks Laich, Tomas Fleischmann
Goal 9: Boyd Gordon, Jeff Schultz
Goal 10: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 11: Tomas Fleischmann, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 12: Nicklas Backstrom, Milan Jurcina
Goal 13: Viktor Kozlov, Steve Eminger
Goal 14: Milan Jurcina
Goal 15: Viktor Kozlov, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 16: Viktor Kozlov, Mike Green
Goal 17: Jeff Schultz, Mike Green

There are 28 assists that breakdown as follows (primary/secondary/total):

Mike Green: 2-3-5
Nicklas Backstrom: 1-4-5
Viktor Kozlov: 4-0-4
Jeff Schultz: 2-1-3
Tomas Fleischmann: 1-1-2
Milan Jurcina: 1-1-2
Tom Poti: 1-0-1
Michael Nylander: 1-0-1
John Erskine: 1-0-1
Brooks Laich: 1-0-1
Boyd Gordon: 1-0-1
Alexander Semin: 0-1-1
Steve Eminger: 0-1-1

The usual suspects are at the top of the list – Backstrom, Kozlov, and Green

But look a little closer…that’s 13 different players providing at least one assist on an Ovechkin goal (he is an equal opportunity finisher). Kozlov has the lion’s share of primary assists, but defensemen have seven of those primary assists, too.

Then there are power play goals. Ovechkin has five power play goals in this group. Neither Kozlov nor Backstrom has a primary assist on any of them (Backstrom has two secondary assists).

It hardly seems to matter who gets the puck to Ovechkin; he’s finding a way to deposit it in the back of the net, regardless.

Now, let’s set those first two assumptions aside and look at the Kozlov-Backstrom pairing. Over the last seven games, Viktor Kozlov has six goals, and the assists on them break down like this:

Goal 1: Mike Green, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 2: Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 3: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 4: Matt Pettinger, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 5: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom
Goal 6: Alex Ovechkin, Tom Poti

Backstrom has five assists, a product of consistent pairing with Kozlov, no doubt (there are two power play and three even strength assists in there). But whatever the reason, Kozlov and Backstrom have been showing up on the same line on the goal scoring record.

Hopefully, Fehr will be able to replace some of, if not all of the recent goal scoring that came from Kozlov, who might now be trying to resurrect the second line. If this is to be the case, it means he’s going to need to develop a working chemistry with Nicklas Backstrom in pretty short order. Quite a task for a couple of kids with a combined 78 games of NHL experience between them. But that could be the key to whether the top line continues to produce, or if teams start to load up defenses on the left side to slow Ovechkin down.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Blue Jackets, February 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And today’s question is, what do the Scioto and Olentangy Rivers have in common?

Columbus, Ohio. That’s right, the Olentangy and the Scioto join downtown, just about where Washington Capitals will be taking on the Columbus Blue Jackets this evening in a rare contest against a Western Conference opponent. It is part of the Caps’ journey of discovery, as they try to navigate the rocks and shoals ahead of them on their adventure that will lead them to the playoffs. And who better to ask about the perils of such a journey than the man himself – he for whom this city by the Olentangy and Scioto is named…Christopher Columbus. Captain, welcome…it’s somewhat surprising to find you a hockey fan…

CC: “Well, it’s just water they play on, and any man of the sea will always find his way to water.”

Tonight the Jackets and their fans get a rare in-person look at Alex Ovechkin, who recently signed a big contract extension with the Caps. Any thoughts on that?

CC: “He who has gold makes and accomplishes whatever he wishes in the world and finally uses it to send souls to paradise.”

So, you think the Caps and their fans will see a Stanley Cup in their near future…but on the other hand, I understand you sided with the league during the lockout. You had some kind words regarding league commissioner Gary Bettman, encouraging the league to stand fast…

CC: “No one should fear to undertake any task in the name of our Saviour, if it is just and if the intention is purely for His holy service.”

Let’s talk about the Jackets for a moment...they had a four game winning streak in mid-January, but other than that they’ve been spending the last couple of months treading water. What seems to be the problem?

CC: “These people are very unskilled in arms ... with 50 men they could all be subjected and made to do all that one wished.”

Well, being 27^th in the league in goals-per-game suggests they’re not exactly doing what they wish, anyway. Meanwhile, the Caps have hit a bit of a rough patch in their last ten games, going 2-3-0 in their last five games after a four game winning streak. The Jackets are 2-5-0 in their last seven. What do you say to a pair of struggling teams?

CC: “By prevailing over all obstacles and distractions, one may unfailingly arrive at his chosen goal or destination.”

That’s pretty good advice for any situation. This is only the second road game the Caps have played against a Western Conference opponent since Bruce Boudreau took over. Any thoughts on his performance behind the bench?...When you see him back there, what comes to mind?

CC: “I will command your fleet and discover for you new realms.”

Regarding the Caps, they’re out on the road for a short two-game road trip, but they’re important games. As something of a “road warrior” yourself, what advice can you give the boys as they skate on foreign ice tonight?

CC: “And the ice shall grant all men new hope, as sleep brings dreams of home.”

Well, thanks to Christopher Columbus for those words of wisdom…for the Caps, it’s the front end of a two-game road trip, and they’ll be taking on a team in the Blue Jackets, the Caps will be facing a team in similar circumstances to their own. A tale of the tape:

Record:

Caps: 24-24-5 (53 points)
Jackets: 25-23-6 (56 points)

Conference Ranking:

Caps: 12^th
Jackets: 11^th

Points out of playoff position:

Caps: three
Jackets: three

Record, last ten games:

Caps: 6-4-0
Jackets: 5-5-0

Goals for/against:

Caps: 31/34
Jackets: 20/22

Power Play:

Caps: 9/40 (22.5%)
Jackets: 8/36 (22.2%)

Penalty killing:

Caps: 31/42 (73.8%)
Jackets: 39/44 (88.6%)

Twenty goals in ten games isn’t a recipe for success in the NHL, but the Blue Jackets have avoided a collapse because of sturdy defensive play, led by the NHL’s version of “Agent Zero” – goaltender Pascal Leclaire. The Blue Jacket netminder has eight shutouts this year in 37 games – a bad sign for the Caps, a team that has been shutout in two of their last three games. Leclaire has had eight decisions over the last ten games, going 5-3-0 in the process. He’s also put up a 2.34 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage in the process. And yes, there is a shutout in there, a 1-0 decision over Chicago on January 24^th.

What offense the Blue Jackets have been able to muster (get it?...”Blue Jackets?” …”muster?” …ok, it’s a Civil War thing) has been spread out. Twenty goals over the last ten games have been scored by 11 different players, four of them by Nikolai Zherdev. While Zherdev is 4-6-10 in these last ten games, he’s also a -7. Rick Nash has three of those goals (3-2-5, -4).

On the blue line, Rostaslav Klesla might be showing – finally – the considerable talent he has on defense. He has not put up big numbers on the offensive side of the ledger, but he is one of only four players with more than 40 games played on the plus side of the ledger. Those “games played” are as important as any statistic. Klesla has never played in more than 75 games in any season, but has dressed for all 54 Columbus contests this year. Coming into this season he missed 90 games over five full seasons due in large part to a variety of injuries – hip, foot, groin, hand, leg. His history is reminiscent of another physical defenseman who had hard time staying in the lineup – Mark Tinordi, who missed 112 games over five seasons with the Caps from 1994-95 to 1998-99.

For the Caps, it’s been alternating wins and losses over the last six games. Hopefully, that is merely a pause as the club re-energizes. The call-up of Eric Fehr yesterday is recognition that the Caps are at the moment too top-heavy a team in scoring. In those six games, during which the Caps have been shutout twice, Washington has 14 goals. Seven of them are from Alex Ovechkin, four from Viktor Kozlov. The new-found scoring from Kozlov is welcome, especially since the Caps have a total of three goals from other players – Tomas Fleischmann, Alexander Semin, and Brooks Laich with one apiece.

The Caps are getting little from the second line and nothing from the third or fourth lines in terms of scoring. Hence, stop the top line, the Caps don’t score. Fehr, who if nothing else has been a goal-scorer at every stop in his young career, will apparently man the right side of the top line, while Kozlov will move to the second line to perhaps provide a jolt of offense – or at least a reliable center who can take advantage of his wingers in ways neither Boyd Gordon nor Brooks Laich could accomplish.

This is probably as good a game as any for the Caps to try this experiment, or at least allow Fehr to get his skating legs under him at this level. Games later in the week against Philadelphia, Carolina, and the Rangers will provide stiffer, or at least more important tests.

It’s feast or famine with the Caps. Six times in the last ten they have scored at least five goals; twice they have been shut out. We think the jostling of the lines will be a shot in the arm, and the Caps will have a successful start to this short road trip…

Caps 3 – Blue Jackets 2

Eric Fehr Recalled from Hershey

Breaking, from the Bears' site...


...click the story for link.

Looking Ahead...2008 Draft Rankings

As we contemplate the week ahead for the Caps, we might take a moment to look a little further ahead. Although you've probably seen them in other venues already, below you will find Central Scouting's midterm rankings for 2008 draft eligibles:

NA skaters:


International skaters:


NA goalies:



International goalies:

And McKeen's Top-30:


If the draft were to be held today, the Caps (should they not win the Stanley Cup) appear to be in the seventh overall position in the first round.

A no point night -- Thrashers 2 - Caps 0

Hockey is a strange game is a lot of respects. Not the least of such features is that despite the best effort, the lion’s share of the opportunities, and just plain luck (or lack of it), one player is the difference for the other guys.

That guy was Kari Lehtonen, the Atlanta Thrasher goaltender who pitched a 2-0 shutout gem last night at Verizon Center against the Caps.

Lehtonen stopped all 36 shots he faced, including a whopping 17 from the top line of Alexander Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Viktor Kozlov in blanking the Caps for his third shutout of the year.

The Caps did not lack for chances, it was just a case of Lehtonen playing the sort of game that Thrasher fans would like to see more often. He was brilliant. On numerous occasions, he had Caps gazing into the rafters after making tough saves, generally with no rebounds.

The Caps show a video clip on the big screen at the start of the third period. In it, Al Pacino, playing football coach Tony D’Amato in “Any Given Sunday,” gives an over-the-top soliloquy on the matter of “inches.” Well, it came down to that last night – perhaps as little as one inch. That inch was the product of a shot by Todd White late in the third period. An inch further to the far side, and the puck White shot probably rings iron and skitters into the far corner. But White took a feed from Mark Recchi, beat a weak backcheck from Backstrom into the high slot, and fired on goaltendter Olaf Kolzig. The puck rang the iron (you could probably hear it in Bethesda), and instead of ricocheting away, found its way into the net to break what was then a scoreless tie. An empty net goal from Marian Hossa was a last minute insurance tally.

The loss came at the expense of some fine efforts by the Caps…

Ovechkin launched 17 shots at Lehtonen – seven found the mark, ten were either blocked or missed. He also had a pair of hits, a blocked shot, and a takeaway. His minus-two was pretty much as a bystander – White beating Backstrom to get a shot away, and being on the ice in the last minute when Hossa scored the empty netter. He might have been credited with a save (the blocked shot) when Atlanta had an empty net opportunity moments earlier.

Backstrom was showing that the one significant weakness of his game – faceoffs – was improving. He was 13-for-21 on the night. And he had six shots on goal, himself.

Donald Brashear does not appear much in the final score sheet, but he had a lot of jump and was doing a passable (well, faintly passable) imitation of Ovechkin or Alexander Semin in handling the puck.

Olaf Kolzig did not get much work, but he was solid in what he faced. There is probably a “Goldilocks” volume of shots that a goaltender needs to stay in a rhythm, but not to the point of being the target in a shooting gallery. Last night, Kolzig probably faced less than that optimal amount – he turned away 11 of only 12 shots (Marian Hossa had four of those; no other Thrasher had more than one) – and that can play with one’s focus. Kolzig was there when the Caps needed a save, and only when a puck found the pipe on the far side was he beaten on this night.

Shaone Morrisonn gutted out an 18:34 performance with a pad affixed to his injured foot. He even managed four shots on goal, doubling his previous high for the year.

Alexander Semin looks lost out there. We don’t know if it’s the lack of a reliable playmaking center (Boyd Gordon got the call to center that line last night) or he’s just making poor decisions, but between a lot of falling down, whiffing on shots, and turning the puck over, he’s struggling out there. Having such a high-risk, high-reward sort of game, such things might be the price to pay for when he’s on his game. But the Caps need more of the latter, and less of the former.

Give Atlanta credit. Coming in with their top goal-scorer on the shelf, they played a smart road game – making sure the Caps could build no momentum, that they had little space to make plays, and ultimately putting the game in Lehtonen’s hands. They deserved the win.

The second shutout in the last three games qualifies as storm clouds gathering. It is indicative of the cumulative effect injuries have had, and are having on this club. When the first line is on and is scoring, the Caps are a formidable club. But right now, when they don’t, then Washington struggles to score. It is a return to the problem that plagued their early games – a lack of supplemental scoring:

-- After six goals in six games, Semin is now four games and counting without one.

-- Fleischmann – the nominal second line right wing – is 1-2-3 in his last seven games.

-- Boyd Gordon and Brooks Laich – each of whom has taken a turn centering the second line – are a combined 1-1-2 in their last seven games.

-- Mike Green is without a goal in his last seven games and is minus-5.

-- Tom Poti still is without a goal this year and has but a single assist in his last 11 games.

-- Matt Pettinger – perhaps the biggest mystery this year – has three points since November 1st.

The injuries to Chris Clark, Michael Nylander, and Brian Pothier are perhaps starting to take their toll. Tom Poti looks as if he is still trying to grit his teeth though some physical problems. And this is not a team that is deep enough in talent or experience to easily deal with injuries (there is no Mark Recchi or even a Bobby Holik on this team to provide the veteran support that might be able to help the Caps weather their physical problems).

But it is what it is, and the Caps are going to do some more growing up in short order. One game is not the end of the world here, and the idea of “don’t let one become two” once more is the theme…but having alternated wins and losses over the last five games (2-3-0), we seem to be recalling that more often these days.

It's About Time...

We leave the rink for a moment to express congratulations to Art Monk...

That would be, "Hall of Famer" Art Monk, who was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame today. He will be inducted with Darrell Green, another deserving Redskin.

Monk's induction is perhaps the most emotional for Redskin fans, not to mention for Monk himself, after years of being denied his rightful place in the Hall in favor of players who might have been more media-savvy, or who might have had more of an media-friendly edge to their personalities.

But none surpassed Monk in their talent, production, or professionalism.

The years he had to endure being named as a finalist, only to meet roadblocks to final election in the form of such as Paul Zimmerman or Peter King is an embarrassment to sports journalism. It was no more than slavish devotion to "more" in statistics of the sort that put possession receivers such as Monk at a disadvantage to the "home run hitter" deep threats. There was even the non sequitur passed around by these "experts" that Monk wasn't even the best reciever on his team, the argument being that Gary Clark -- a fine receiver in his own right -- was the one "feared" by opponents more than Monk.

What utter nonsense. If any defensive coordinator of the period had been asked what receiver on the Redskins you would absolutely have to keep track of in a game-deciding situation, I'd bet a shiny nickel that they'd have said, "Monk."

Monk played in an era when you could actually defend pass receivers, unlike the current pinball-machine version of the passing game in the NFL. And he still managed to set records (since surpassed) for consecutive games with a reception and total career catches. His statistical profile compares favorably with players such as hall-of-famer Michael Irvin in terms of total career receiving yards, catches, and touchdowns.

It is an honor long past due.


Along with Monk and Green, New England linebacker Andre Tippett, San Diego/San Francisco defensive end Fred Dean, and Minnesota/Denver tackle Gary Zimmerman were elected, and Kansas City cornerback Emmitt Thomas was elected as the senior committee choice.

Hey, Lew...We Had it First!

Seems the venerable New York Times has discovered hockey...but they're a little late with the "hat trick."

And Chicken Parm says, "I would pay money to watch Alex Ovechkin in a public skate..."

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, February 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And welcome to Christmas Day for those of us of the prognosticatory realm, for today is…

GROUNDHOG DAY!

That’s right, wood-chuck chuckers, it’s the day we all bow to the master – Punxsutawney Phil – and await the moment when he does – or does not – see his shadow to herald the coming of spring. But before the rat with an agent repairs to his digs on Gobbler’s Knob for the day’s festivities, we scored a rare interview with the master…Phil, welcome.

“A pleasure, as always…”

Phil, you’ve been prognosticating for more years than you probably care to admit…what’s your secret?

“Thermal underwear.”

Really?

“Absolutely…that tool who yanks me out of the fake tree stump?...those gloves he wears are cold, let me tell ya, and the toasty thermals save me a lot of aggravation.”

Interesting…Phil, let me take you outside of the meteorological and delve into the hockeylogical for a moment…have you been following the NHL this year?

“How could I not?...being less than a hundred miles from Pittsburgh, it’d be hard not to…Crosby this, and Crosby that…but he looks a little like a groundhog with those teeth, so I have a bit of a soft spot for him.”

What’s been your take on the season so far?

“The amazing parity…it’d test even my profound prognostication skills to figure out who has the advantage going into the home stretch…”

Well, let’s test those skills…first, the question on the minds of all of our Caps fans out there…will the Caps make the playoffs?

“Well, Peerless, I see another six weeks of hockey after the regular season ends for the Caps.”

Wow…that would get them to the conference final, by my calculations.

“OK, maybe not six weeks…it’s sort of a habit with me. Let’s just say that you’ll be prognosticating after fan appreciation day.”

Caps fans will be pleased to hear that…what about the trophies. Alex Ovechkin is on a pace right now to win the Ross and the Richard Trophies for top scorer and top goal scorer. What about the voting trophies…the Hart and the Pearson?

“I think it’s a bit too early to say…there’s nine more weeks of hockey left, and a lot can happen. Shoot, Crosby could come back and score 50 points in the last month.”

He could?

“No, not really, but if he comes back and puts up any numbers at all, he might become the favorite."

OK, the big one…who is going to skate off with the Stanley Cup?

“That’s a hard one…the only constant so far this year is the Red Wings. Detroit has lost consecutive games in regulation only twice this year – a two gamer last month and a three game streak in November. After that, it’s a crap shoot – even Ottawa has stumbled, going 3-6-0 in their last nine games. It isn’t the team that is going to have the gaudy numbers, but the one that closes strong. That’s what makes prognosticating hard, since there are nine weeks left…”

But that’s why they pay you the big bucks…

“Big bucks?!...they pay me in clover and the occasional cricket…maybe I need to have Alex Ovechkin negotiate my next deal, eh?”

We'll ask him…but about that Stanley Cup winner…

“Well, when we get to the playoffs, the game becomes more of a goaltender’s game, so you want to look at a team that gets some consistently high end play in the nets. And a team that is not dealing with health issues – that’s also something that can be a problem to predict with nine weeks to go. But in the end, I’d have to say that the team that will hoist the Cup at the end is – “

“PHIL!...you’re limo’s here…we have to get to Gobbler’s Knob!”

“oops, gotta go…it’s been a pleasure…”

Well, we’ll just have to catch up with the master another time. Meanwhile, it’s Kid’s Night at the Phone Booth, complete with a Keith Jones likeness for the kiddies,

and the Atlanta Thrashers are in town for a game that is dripping with playoff implications – yes, even with nine weeks to go.

The Thrashers beat the Buffalo Sabres in a shootout last night, 5-4, so one would think they would be a bit drained from the 65 minute effort. The odd part of that game was not so much the result, but how it occurred. Slava Kozlov…nope. Mark Recchi…nope. Marian Hossa…nope. It was Eric Perrin who scored the only goal in Bettman’s Gimmick for the extra standings point. It was Perrin’s first such goal in the NHL. And while we’re at it, there seem to be (or maybe it’s just The Peerless’ medication kicking in) a lot of “three-point” games these days in the East…that could have an effect on the final results, too. But as long as the Caps take care of their own business, three-point games shouldn’t matter in the end.

And taking care of business starts with a contest against a team with which it has been trading standings places the last couple of weeks (the Thrashers currently have the upper hand). And the theme for Atlanta seems to be these days, “time and a half.” Half of the Thrashers last ten games have gone to extra time, all of them to The Gimmick. In those last ten games, the Thrashers are 4-3-3 (2-3 in games decided in regulation, 2-0-3 in The Gimmick). The particulars:

Record: 4-3-3
Goals for/against: 23/31
Power Play: 9/41 (22.0 percent)
Penalty Killing: 38/44 (86.4 percent)
Shootout goals/shots: 3/15 (20.0 percent)
Shootout saves/shots: 10/15 (.667 sv)

Atlanta has actually played rather well in this 10-game stretch…if you discount that 10-1 thwapping the Sabres laid on them on January 18^th. Take that game out, and Atlanta has given up 21 goals in their last nine games. And that brings up Atlanta’s goaltending. The Southeast has been much-maligned for its collective goaltending, but Kari Lehtonen, despite a 3-2-2 record over these last ten games (including the Buffalo debacle), has a 2.47 GAA and .927 save percentage. One would expect Lehtonen to get the nod this evening, seeing as this is a divisional game of importance, and Johan Hedberg has had his troubles lately (1-1-1, 4.44, .872 in the last ten game stretch for Atlanta)…but Hedberg was the winner last night.

Among the skaters, the Thrashers will no doubt miss Ilya Kovalchuk, who had his knee Ruutu’ed in a game against Pittsburgh last week. The second-leading goal scorer in the league (with 38) was 3-1-4 in this ten-game stretch before his injury. In the meantime, Marian Hossa has been picking up the offensive slack…6-3-9 in the last ten games, including a hat trick against Detroit on January 15^th. And the Thrashers have received some unexpected offensive help in the form of Bobby Holik, who is 4-1-5 in the last ten games. Hossa and Holik bear watching – in 124 total games played against Washington in their careers, they are a combined 43-50-93.

But there is that word, “slack”…and it has meaning with respect to these big three. Despite the 13 total goals and 18 total points, they are a combined -18 over the last ten games (all of them -6).

The Caps are 2-1-1 against Atlanta this year, splitting two decisions in regulation at home so far. It was the regulation loss at home – a 5-1 spanking – that triggered the change behind the bench for Washington. The Caps also are 6-1-1 against the Southeast under Bruce Boudreau, so success in this area is not a rare event. Washington is on a nice run of its own, going 11-4-1 in their last 16 games (two of the regulation losses were via shutout). And while Lehtonen has a fine win-loss record against the Caps (6-3-2), he can be scored on (2.86 GAA), and he’s lost both of his decisions to Washington this year.

All that points to a good night for the home team, provided they just take care of business…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3