The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs, March 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The penultimate road trip of the year comes to an end tonight in Toronto, where the Caps visit the Maple Leafs.

“You know, the name ‘Toronto’ comes from the Iroquois word tkaronto, meaning ‘place where trees stand in the water.’"

Fearless, where do you find this stuff?

“You think I spend my time reading your crap?”

“Don’t listen to him, cuz…’Toronto’ comes from the word for “Native American sidekick.”

“That’s ‘Tonto,” Cheerless, you putz!”

“Oh…well, then maybe it comes from the word for ‘movie about a 1970’s car.’”

Cheerless, I think you mean, “Gran Torino.”

“You sure about that?...hmm… maybe it comes from the word for ‘storm that eats mobile homes.’”

Uh, I think you mean, “tornado,” sport.

“Underwater missle”

Nope…that’s “torpedo.”

“Donut-shaped?”

Nope…that’s “toroidal.”

“Excuse me, cousin…”

Yeah, Fearless?

"I believe the word for “donut shaped” is, 'Koharski.'”

Oh…my mistake.

Well, while the cousins ponder “glazed” or “filled,” we’ll get on with the game. The Caps are visiting Toronto for the last time this year having won five of their last seven games. That’s not a misprint, although to hear some folks tell it, the Caps are challenging the Islanders for the rights to hog all the ping pong balls in the John Tavares Sweepstakes.

However, the Caps did lose to Toronto the last time these teams met, on March 5th – a 2-1 Leafs win. Since then, the Leafs have been utterly average… 4-4-0 in the eight games since. This should hardly be surprising, since the Leafs are 30-30-13 for the year. Their numbers are similarly middle-of-the-road… or worse:



In the eight games since the Leafs and Caps met, Toronto has had difficulty scoring. While they have been outscored by only 26-23 over that span, eight of their 23 goals scored came in a single game, an 8-6 win over Calgary on March 14th. Other than that, 15 goals in seven games is rather anemic. On the other hand, taking away the six goals they surrendered in that Calgary game leaves them with having given up 20 in seven games – a considerable improvement over their last-in-the-league goals against average.

What Toronto has had trouble doing lately is winning at home. Since February 1st, the Leafs have won only four times in 11 tries at Air Canada Centre (4-3-4). And, 14 of the 31 goals they scored in those 11 games came in two games – the 8-6 win over Calgary and a 6-2 win over Pittsburgh in Michel Therrien’s last game behind the Penguin bench. In only two other games did the Leafs score as many as three goals in regulation, and they lost both of those games in extra time. You’d have to think that if the Leafs are going to win, they’re going to have to keep the score down.

And keeping the score down starts in goal. Martin Gerber was claimed off waivers from Ottawa at the trading deadline and made his debut with the Leafs in the 2-1 win over the Caps on March 5th. He is 4-3-0. 3.05, .905 since joining the Maple Leafs. He’s had his adventures against the Caps, though, compiling a career record of 6-3-1, 3.35, .879 in 11 appearances. Goal support appears key for Gerber, the 2-1 win in March notwithstanding. Yes, that would seem to contradict the notion of keeping the score down, meaning that Gerber probably can't coast on the heels of a goal scoring binge by his mates to win -- he needs to pull another rabbit out of his mask (you thought we were going to say something else?) to win this game.

Since the last time the Leafs and Caps got together, Toronto has seen a couple of guys hit it off together. Alexei Ponikaraovsky and Mikhail Grabovski are 4-9-13 and 5-4-9, respectively, in the eight games since the meeting at Verizon Center. What’s more, both of them have figured in the scoring in five of the Leafs’ last 13 goals, and at least one of them have been involved in eight of the last 13 goals scored by the Leafs, dating back to the 8-6 win over Calgary. Grabovski doesn’t have much of a history against the Caps, only three games worth (0-1-1, -1). Ponikarovsky has had 17 games worth of experience against the Caps, posting seven goals and two assists in the process. Each has an assist against the Caps in three games this year.

If there is one Toronto statistic against the Caps that might cause Maple Leaf fans to shudder – that is, when they’re not shuddering over another year without a Cup – it would be this number… -33.

That would be the career plus-minus rating of Pavel Kubina against the Caps in 48 games. It’s not as bad as it looks, though. Since the lockout, Kubina is 2-7-9, +1 in 18 games against the Caps. He is, however, mired in something of a slump. After going 4-8-12, +4 in 13 games in February, he is 1-2-3, +2 in ten games in March, and he has only an assist on his score sheet in his last eight games.

March started slowly for Jason Blake – 0-1-1, -2, in his first four games of the month – but he’s come on since. In his last half dozen games, Blake is 3-3-6, +2. He has ten goals in 31 games against the Caps over his career, three of them game winners. He leads the Leafs in game-winners this year with five.

In the “if I didn’t have bad luck, I’d have no luck at all” category, there is Jamal Mayers. He hasn’t had a “plus” game in more than a month (13 games). But his only goal of March was a game winner (so there is some good luck in there, after all), scored in the 8-6 win over Calgary.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: Nikolai Kulemin

In the 8-6 win over Calgary on March 14th, Kulemin scored the Maple Leafs’ sixth goal of the contest, assisted by Alexei Ponikarovsky and Mikhail Grabovsky. Maybe that was the start of something. Last Saturday, Kulemin returned the favor, assisting on a pair of goals by Ponikarovsky, in addition to netting one himself with an assist from Ponikarovsky. Grabovski had a couple of assists in that mix, too. Kulemin is 2-2-4, +4 in his last three games.

Washington: Tomas Fleischmann

On February 11th, Fleischmann scored a goal on his way to a two-point night in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to the Rangers. Since then, Fleischmann has one goal in almost 285 minutes of ice time. OK, so he can make up for that by being a playmaker. Well, he has three assists in that time, none since February 20th. A top-six forward whose claim to a jersey rests on his ability to create offense failing to create offense is, to be charitable, a problem. Compounding the problem is the possibility that Alexander Semin will miss the game due to the flu. Oddly enough, Fleischmann has been a more productive point producer on the road this year, going 12-9-21 in 35 games. The Caps could use some of his road show production now to take the heat off the usual suspects.

Here is your odd statistic for tonight as the Caps embark on the last “ten percent” stretch of eight games of the regular season. Over the last five seasons, the eventual Stanley Cup winner posted combined records of 22-8-10 in their last eight games of the year. All of them played better than .500 hockey in terms of standings points earned. You don’t have to be on a roll, necessarily (the Devils finished 3-1-4 in 2003 before winning the Cup), but it can’t hurt. The Caps are 5-2-1 in their last eight. If they finish that way, they will have 107 points, matching a franchise record. It’s certainly doable with the schedule remaining, and it would help if they got off to a good start on a good finish against the Leafs.

Caps 4 – Leafs 2

Peace in our time

"Peace is its own reward."

-- Mohandas K. Gandhi

"We make war that we may live in peace."

-- Aristotle

"Peace is not the absence of war; it is a virtue; a state of mind; a disposition for benevolence; confidence; and justice."

-- Baruch Spinoza

"Better than a thousand hollow words,Is one word that brings peace."

-- Buddha

"I can't wait 'til he says something about me."

-- Alex Ovechkin, anticipating Don Cherry's reaction to his celebration after scoring his 50th goal of the season.

"Ovechkin -- Alex, is that his name?"

-- Don Cherry, prefacing his lecture on hockey decorum on "Coach's Corner" last evening.

"They're not laughing with you...they're laughing at you, Alex."

-- Cherry





Say Don, how'd you like that nice Canadian boy, Rod Brind'Amour (Ottawa) planting Ovechkin's head into the end boards last night?

They're not laughing at you Don, they're laughing near you.

I guess we're done with this...

A NO-point night: Hurricanes 4 - Caps 1

One team was playing its third game in four nights and the second game of a back-to-back.

It was the other team that ran out of gas in the third period.

The Carolina Hurricanes turned a 1-1 second intermission contest into a 4-1 “leave ‘em in the dust” win over the Caps last night. And, as if to put a cherry on the sundae for the Hurricanes, it was their defense – playing offense…and the Caps’ defense – not playing defense…that was the difference.

Hurricane defensemen Joni Pitkanen and Anton Babchuk scored goals from in close, behind the Caps’ defense, to break the second intermission tie, then Joe Corvo (yes, a defenseman) scored from Greensboro in the last minute into an empty net, to account for the final margin.

There are games when the Caps are focused, engaged, and determined, and you think, “there is a parade route at the end of this.” Then there are games like last night when they allowed Carolina to exert their will on them, and you might think, “there are 18 holes at the end of this.”

So?...

- You could say Cam Ward was good – excellent, in fact. But of the 32 shots on goal recorded by the Capitals, eight of them were from within 20 feet. 13 of them were from 50 or more feet away.

- Not that Ward didn’t have his moments. His save on a one-timer by Tomas Fleischmann a little more than five minutes into then a scoreless game foiled any attempt at establishing momentum for the Caps. He victimized Fleischmann once more when Fleischmann collected a pass deflected by a Carolina high-stick, then skate in on Ward with space. Fleischmann let fly with a wrister from the left wing hash marks, but Ward got a glove on it, denying the Caps the chance to tie the game at two in the third period.

- If you look at the numbers – and only at the numbers – you’d swear this game went to a shootout...

The Caps had 32 shots on goal, the Hurricanes had 30.
The Caps had 26 hits, the Hurricanes had 24.
The Caps had eight takeaways, the Hurricanes nine.
The Caps had 13 blocked shots, the Hurricanes ten.
The Caps and Hurricanes split 52 draws right down the middle, 26 apiece.

- The game turned on two plays. Joni Pitkanen carried the puck deep into the Caps zone, and as he was moving it behind the net was checked into the glass by John Erskine. Erskine followed the puck around, Pitkanen lagging behind. Chad LaRose picked up the puck and continued out from around the net, finding Eric Staal in front. Staal fed Pitkanen, cutting behind Michael Nylander and Mike Green, and all that was left for Pitkanen to do was wait until goalie Jose Theodore committed, then pop a backhander into the net.

- The second play, Ray Whitney carried the puck into the Caps’ zone on a 4-on-4, and Anton Babchuk drove to the net with Viktor Kozlov marking him. As Whitney curled off and fed Dennis Seidenberg, Kozlov drifted off toward the left wing faceoff circle, leaving Babchuk at the Theodore’s doorstep. Seidenberg sent a shot toward the goal with the apparent intention of having Babchuk redirect it. Babchuk succeeded, but Theodore foiled the try. However, in doing so, Theodore was down and not in position to prevent Babchuk from recovering the puck and flipping a backhand into the net before Mike Green or Shaone Morrisonn could get back to defend. It just seemed that Babchuk – who is 6’5 and 22 pounds – got lost behind the defense.

- Alex Ovechkin had seven shots on goal and 13 attempts in all, but one never got the feeling he was getting the puck in places where he is normally effective. Despite the attempts, the Hurricanes did a good job in defending him as a group.

- Since netting goals in three consecutive games in January, Fleischmann has two goals in his last 29 games. One wonders why he’s getting more ice time than a guy like, say, Eric Fehr (three shots on goal and seven attempts in barely ten minutes last night). But the reason might be that Fehr has more physical edge to his game and can fit the “energy” role on a fourth line more than can Fleischmann. It's the only reason we can think of.

- Last night marked the end of an 11-game points scoring streak for Alexander Semin against the Hurricanes. He had goals in the last eight games of that streak and was 10-11-21 overall in that 11-game streak.

- It was another case of the skaters letting Jose Theodore down (they spread it around – 12 of them were on the minus side of the ledger). It would be hard to fault Theodore for any of the three Hurricane goals scored when he was on the ice. Even the first – by Rod Brind’Amour – was a product of Mike Green getting pickpocketed behind the Caps’ net by Sergei Samsonov, who poked the puck across to Jussi Jokinen. Jokinen found Brind’Amour alone and from precisely the spot on the ice where Flesichmann was stoned by Ward, Brind’Amour buried the puck behind Theodore on a one-timer.

This might have been “game one” in a playoff series, since the Caps and Hurricanes occupy the third and sixth seeds at the moment and would meet in the first round if the standings hold this way. Carolina sent the message that it isn’t going to roll over, merely because they are 13 points behind the Caps in the standings (11 this morning). For the Caps, there is now other business. They do not play another playoff team for the rest of the regular season (based on this morning’s standings). For a team that seems to need motivation, that’s a bad mix heading into the playoffs…

…where Carolina could be waiting.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s the last visit of the season – the regular season – to Carolina as the Capitals take on the Carolina Hurricanes. The Capitals blow into town like a cyclone…

“Hurricanes are no laughing matter, sir."

Oh…and you are?

“Foone…Dr. Ty Foone, of the National Hurricane Center, and we’d appreciate your not making light of these deadly storms.”

Foone?...Nice name, bub. Do you have a brother named, “Buff?”

“Very funny, sir, but hurricanes are not to be trifled with.”

We know. They’re 6-1-2 in March.

“That’s not what I mean, sir.”

And you don’t want to have your weather system “Staal” over Raleigh tonight.

“haha…I get it. Meteorology joke.”

And then there is the matter of the “Cole” front that moved into Carolina around the trading deadline.

"You’d kill ‘em in Miami, sir.”

Oh, that’s ok…hockey’s already dead there.

But it’s not in Carolina, where the Hurricanes are, in fact, 6-1-2 in March and 1-0-1 against the Caps for the month. That 14-point month so far has catapulted the ‘Canes into sixth place in the Eastern Conference, and to abuse the hypothetical you hear at this time of year, if the playoffs were to start today, the Caps and ‘Canes would be the first round matchup. And speaking of matchups, here are the number matchups...



In March, Carolina has outscored its opponents by 40-21 in nine games. Four of their six wins have been by at least three goals, including a 5-2 win over Washington in the first game of the month. They’ll be bringing a two-game winning streak into tonight’s game, a 4-2 win over Martin-Brodeur-less New Jersey on Wednesday and a 5-4 win over the Islanders last night.

Special teams have been key for the Hurricanes in two respects. First, the power play is 13-for-44 this month (29.6 percent). It’s a good thing, too, since the penalty killers are only 28-for-36 (77.8 percent). And in those numbers are the second key – the Hurricanes have enjoyed eight more power plays than they have suffered shorthanded situations. They have had more power play opportunities than their opponents in six of the nine games they’ve played this month, going 5-1-0 in such games. Given the Caps’ tendencies to wear a path to the penalty box on nights they’re not fully engaged, this bears watching.

Individually, Erik Cole has now played eight games for the Hurricanes since returning to Carolina from Edmonton. That the Hurricanes are 5-1-2 and Cole 2-8-10, +4, is probably not a coincidence. And he’s had salutary effects on the play of Eric Staal, who is 6-8-14, +9 in the eight games since Cole returned to the scene. Combined, the “Erick’s” have played 69 career games against the Caps, their production being 33-32-65, +4, with nine power play goals, a shorthanded goal, and three game-winners.

They haven’t been alone in lighting things up. Tuomo Ruutu is 5-5-10, +3, in nine games for the month. Ray Whitney is an astonishing 5-10-15, +8 in the same number of games. Matt Cullen, we kid you not, is 3-9-12, +7 in nine games. Rod Brind’Amour is 4-6-10, +3. Even Sergei Samsonov, who seems to have spent his post-rookie season career disappointing people, is 2-6-8, +1 in nine games.

On defense, the Hurricanes have gotten contributions from an unexpected place. Anton Babchuk has seven goals in his last 15 games, including the game-winner against the Devils last Wednesday. Perhaps more important, the goal scoring hasn’t come at the expense of defense (or at least his ability to be on the ice when good things happen). He is plus-12 in those 15 games. As a group, it has been solid. In 45 man games played by the top six defensemen this month, there are only six minus games in the bunch.

In goal, one has to wonder…Cam Ward has played in 20 consecutive games, including four back-to-backs, and 37 of the last 38. He’s allowed three or more goals in four of his last five games, including four to the lowly Islanders last night. Does this guy get a break tonight? If not, he’ll be bringing an 11-5-2, 2.62, .917, three shutout record against the Caps to the ice. He is 1-1-1, 2.93, .914 in three games against the Caps this year.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Patrick Eaves

While the Caps are pondering the “Erick’s,” Whitney, Brind’Amour, etc., consider Patrick Eaves. In 63 games against the rest of the league this year, he is 3-7-10, +6. Not exactly fear-inspiring. But in four games against the Caps he is 2-1-3, +2, doubling his production from previous years against the Caps to 4-2-6, +4 in 14 games. He could be an under the radar guy that could burn a team not paying attention.

Washington: Alexander Semin

The one kind of line you don’t like to see from Semin is this…0-0-0, even, three shots…and four PIMs. It’s not so much the points as the penalties, both for hooking in the first period against Tampa Bay in the Caps’ last contest. It suggests maybe a bit of a wandering focus, and taking the iffy penalty against the Hurricanes lately is playing with fire. Semin has really abused Carolina defenses – 19-15-34, +6, with eight power play goals and four game-winners in 23 career games. He is a mind-boggling 6-7-13, +3, with two game-winners in four games against Carolina this year. Which Semin shows up will probably be the key for the Caps.

Carolina hasn’t lost a home game in more than a month, winning seven in a row since taking a 5-1 loss at the hand of the Bruins. They are firing – quite literally – on all cylinders. If the Caps defense and goaltending needed a test, they are going to get one in this game. As the Caps end the regular season series against the Hurricanes, they catch Carolina in the midst of perhaps their hottest stretch this season. And heat feeds Hurricanes. The Caps have enough to weather the storm…

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 3

It's not how you start...

Over at ESPN.com, Pierre LeBrun takes a look at how teams have done in the second half of the year (meaning, the second 41-games). It's an interesting little piece, but we don't think it goes far enough in what it means. First, let's break those standings down by conference. Teams in yellow are in their respective top-eight:

You can see that Montreal in the East is really sucking wind at this point, the worst team in the Conference in the second half of the season. Over in the west, you have to think the youngsters in Chicago have hit a wall. Parenthetically, the high-water mark of the Blackhawk season might have been the Winter Classic. Going into the home and home with Detroit that ended in the outdoor game, Chicago had a .712 winning percentage going into those games (20-6-7). They haven’t been that high since losing both games to Detroit.

But back to this second half thing. If you look at that spiffy color coded table, you can see that the West has followed comparatively true, first half and second, reflected in the fact that seven of the top-eight second half performers are also still in the playoff mix. Only those Blackhawks have fallen out. If you look at potential playoff seedings, as in “if the playoffs started today,” the West would look like this (second half ranking in parentheses):

Detroit (1) vs. Nashville (7)
San Jose (5) vs. Edmonton (8)
Calgary (6) vs. Columbus (4)
Vancouver (3) vs. Chicago (11)

Looking at those matchups, one might think Chicago is set up for a quick and quiet exit. They are slumping, and despite being a current #5 seed in the West, they would face a #4 seed that is actually playing higher than their seed indicated (Vancouver is third in the West in it second half record). Similarly, Calgary – the #3 seed at the moment – could be primed to be “upset” by the Blue Jackets – the #6 seed – based on their respective second half records. San Jose and Edmonton are both playing worse than their current seeds, while Detroit and Nashville have second half records that might be closest to their respective seeds (not good news for Nashville).

Things are more interesting in the East, where there is a real jumble. Ottawa, Atlanta, and Toronto are also-rans in the full-year standings, but which have pushed themselves up the charts in the second half. In addition to the Canadiens’ fall from grace, you’d have to be very concerned about the Hurricanes and the Rangers, their most recent records (6-2-2 and 6-3-1, respectively, in their last ten games) notwithstanding. The potential matchups would look like this (second half ranking in parentheses):

Boston (6) vs. Carolina (10)
Washington (4) vs. Montreal (15)
New Jersey (1) vs. New York Rangers (11)
Philadelphia (7) vs. Pittsburgh (2)

Clearly, you don’t want to be that team facing either Pittsburgh or New Jersey in the first round. Both teams are playing far above their full-year winning percentage levels. Philly and New York are in the potential bulls-eye there, and given their second half performances, you might not like their chances. Boston and Carolina looks like it might be a war of attrition or an aesthetic disaster, given their respective second half performances. And if you’re a Caps fan, you might be fairly drooling over the prospect of getting the Canadiens in the first round.

Quintin Laing Injured

Last night, Quintin Laing skated the last shift of the Caps' 5-2 win over Tampa Bay.

This morning, news came out that he tore his spleen and will be out for the season.

Laing, with his disregard-for-self penchant for throwing himself in front of shots, has impressed us as one of those guys who might always struggle to make an NHL roster, but who is really good to have in your system as an example of hard work and grit to other guys.

He is in the last year of his contract, so this might have been his last game as a Capital. We sure hope not. He's an inspiration.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 2

Somewhere, Don Cherry is getting CPR.

Alex Ovechkin scored his 50th goal of the season last night in the Capitals’ 5-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, joining Wayne Gretzky and Mike Bossy as players to score 50 or more in three of their first four seasons. But it will be the aftermath that folks will be talking about. After stepping around Matt Pettinger at the Tampa Bay blue line and shooting around Lukas Krajicek and over goalie Mike McKenna’s glove to notch the 50th, Ovechkin laid his stick down in the corner and pantomimed warming himself from the heat of his hot stick.

It was not Ovechkin’s finest moment.

The one thing about Ovechkin’s goal celebrations – those resulting from his own and from teammates’ goals – has been their air of spontaneity. It is what sets his apart from those of touchdown-scorers and sack-masters in the NFL, where everything looks choreographed. They are even different from those in the soccer celebrations Don Cherry famously compared Ovechkin to in that the soccer celebrations have more than their own whiff of shirt discarding choreography to them.

That’s what makes this so disappointing. Ovechkin had been – to this moment – unique, despite Cherry’s rantings. But even Mike Green, who was invited to participate in this theater, declined – “He told me he was going to do it. He wanted me to join in, but there was no way I'd join in on that. I just kind of stood back and let him do what he does."

If one wants to chalk this up to a certain exuberance on the part of a 23-year old setting the bar a little higher on his career achievement track, fine. We can see giving the guy a pass (there are a lot of folks this morning, though, who won’t). But frankly, this one crossed the line. We’re hoping we don’t see anything like it again.

Other stuff…

While Ovechkin was blistering his fingers from the heat of his stick, Mike Green was inching in on a milestone of his own. His two goals gave him 27 for the year. Having reached this mark in 59 games, you’d have to like his chances to get to 30. If he does, he would become the eighth defenseman in league history to reach that mark. It hasn’t been done since the 1992-1993 season, when Capitals’ defenseman Kevin Hatcher netted 34.

It was the first time this season that the Caps failed to score three goals on the Lightning in the first period. They scored two.

Perhaps lost in this was Viktor Kozlov’s getting three assists. It was his first three-point game since December 18th (St. Louis).

And Shaone Morrisonn had a couple of assists. It was his first multi-point game of the year and his first since March 10, 2007 (New York Islanders).

18:43…that was Brian Pothier’s ice time. Any other considerations of statistics in his game are irrelevant.

Nicklas Backstrom won 10 of 13 draws. The 76.9 percent winning percentage was his second-highest of the year (January 27th, 7-of-9 – 77.8% -- against Boston).

With Boyd Gordon out, the other guys did pretty well in the dot…Backstrom, Sergei Fedorov, and David Steckel were a combined 26 up and 12 down (68.4%).

Mike Green led the Caps in hit in this one (four).

Matt Smaby had a tough game for the Lightning. He was on the ice for each of the Caps’ even strength goals.

Once more, every Cap got at least ten minutes of ice time; only three had more than 20.

Marty St. Louis gets the score sheet splatterage award…a goal, three shots, a shot blocked, a shot missed, a hit, a giveaway, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and he lost a faceoff. That’s the Sampler Platter at Red Lobster.

Rick Tocchet made good on his promise to Matt Lashoff, and Lashoff fulfilled it. Lashoff led the Lightning in ice time and in power play ice time. The Lightning did get a power play goal (Steven Stamkos) and Lashoff had a pair of assists.

If Evgeni Artyukhin and Paul Szczechura are going to have more shots on goal (two and three, respectively) than Ryan Malone (one), the Lightning are going to have trouble getting offense…like last night.

3-0, 1.74, .939. Steve who?

Since the Caps lost in regulation at Ottawa on January 20th, they are 8-1-2 on the road.

Boston is 3-5-1 in March. Two of their next three are against New Jersey and at Philadelphia. Maybe catching them isn’t impossible after all.

Jersey has the gauntlet of playing Minnesota, at Boston, at Philadelphia, at Chicago, Carolina, and at the Rangers (where Sean Avery can torment “Fatso”) in their next half dozen. Maybe holding them off isn’t impossible either.

With only nine games left, and only one of those against a team in the top-eight in the East, the struggle now is to stave off boredom. But now, the Capitals have some incentive to push through – they can finish at the head of the class in the East. It doesn’t have the same urgency as last year’s finish, but it could be interesting nonetheless.

In the meantime, this was pretty good, guys…except for that stick thing.

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You Bracketological Prognostos

Every red-blooded American is taking off work today and is hunched over their bracket worksheets for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. We are no different. And so, we bring you the only bracket you'll ever need (assuming your bird cage needs to be relined)...

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Thursday in Tampa, and the Caps are visiting the Lightning. For once, it’s not a desperate team the boys are playing…it’s not a good team…

The Caps are doomed.

Just kidding. It’s the Lightning, and as we were visiting their web site, we noticed, there isn’t any evidence of that whole “Hockey Bay, USA” campaign they trotted out to start the year. Nowhere to be found…

“Shhhhhh…not so loud.”

Excuse me…and you are?

“I don’t want to say…I was the genius who came up with that ‘Hockey Bay’ Idea, and I’d like to work in advertising again.”

Oh…I get it. But hey, one bad idea isn’t going to kill a career, is it?

“It’s not the first time.”

Oh?

“Yeah…ever hear of ‘New Coke?’”

Uh-huh…

“Yeah, that was me…and tht McDonalds ‘I’d hit it’ ads?

Uh, yeah?

“Me again…but I swear, I’m going to come up with an idea that’ll make ‘em take notice. Oh! Oh! This is great! I could find that dog…the one who did those Taco Bell commercials. Oh, this is so good…I could dress him in a little hockey helmet and a Marty St. Louis sweater. Oh, they’re gonna love this…I could get my old job back…”

Do you really think...

“…and he could pop up over the top of the bench…just like Marty! And he looks into the camera and says, “¡Yo quiero Lightning Hockeyl!”

Well…while our new friend, who lends a new meaning to “Mad Men” ponders the next great Lightning ad campaign...

If you look up the word “slog” in the dictionary, you will find that it means, “a long, tiring walk or march.” You might add “skate” to that, and you might find a team picture of the Lightning, too. It’s been that kind of season for the Bolts. March has been just the latest installment of it. Tampa Bay is 3-2-3 for the month, and although it is probably early to be mentioning it, it represents their first “Over-.500” month of the season. As for the season, here is how their numbers play out…

It certainly has been a month of highs and lows. On their way to being outscored for March by 33-28, the Lightning have had a game in which they scored eight goals (an 8-6 win over Calgary to start the month), and they’ve had one in which they gave up nine (a 9-3 loss to Carolina). It has not been a team that has had an ability to win the close, low scoring game this month. In each of their three wins, the Lightning have scored at least four goals. In each of their five losses, they’ve scored three or fewer.

Special teams have been something of an adventure this month for Tampa Bay. While the power play has sped along at a 31.2 percent clip (10-for-32), the penalty killers have spent their time giving it all back by killing off only 24 of 33 shorthanded situations (72.7 percent).

The last time these teams met – on Valentine’s Day – the Caps’ Mike Green set a record for defensemen for consecutive games with at least one goal. In that 5-1 loss to Washington, Ryan Malone scored the only goal for Tampa Bay. Since then, Malone is 5-4-9, +1. It’s about what you’d expect, given the pace at which he’s scored goals and points over his career, but perhaps not exactly the production you’d expect for a guy pulling down $4.5 million this year (and every year through 2014-15). He’s had a similar rate of production against the Caps for his career – 5-7-12, +5, in 18 career games. He has a pair of goals in three games against the Caps as a member of the Lightning.

Steven Stamkos might be turning a corner and finally getting it. The number one overall pick in last summer’s entry draft has struggled for long stretches this year as he serves his apprenticeship rookie year, but in March he is 3-5-8, -3, in eight games. The plus-minus is still a problem (he is minus-12 for the year), but his offensive production does seem to have picked up. He has not, however, registered any points against the Caps in three games this year. And, yes, he is minus-3, too.

Jeff Halpern didn’t get traded, leaving him to toil in relative obscurity on Florida’s Gulf Coast. It’s been a difficult year for the former Cap. He missed the first 30 games of the season to a knee injury, and it hasn’t been a year for the ages since his return. At 4-8-13 through 40 games, he’s on a pace to roughly match his first year in Dallas, which wasn’t one for the yearbook, either (8-17-25). In five career games against his old team, he is 1-1-2, +4. That includes an assist and a minus-3 in two games this year with Tampa Bay.

On defense, Tampa Bay has dressed almost as many players as teams have dressed on their entire roster. 16 defensemen have dressed for the Lightning, and one thing can be said of the lot. There are no answers to the Lightning’s problems on defense in this group. Not in the near term, anyway. Defense? No defenseman who has played more than 20 games is better than a minus-3.
But the Lightning do have a defenseman with a plus-rating (two, actually). Richard Petiot, he of the Petiot-for-Kolzig-Heward-Rogers-a draft pick-a bushel of oranges-a case of sun screen-and four tickets to Saw VI (due out in May 2009) trade, has played four games for the Lightning and has compiled two assists and a plus-3 rating. That could change considerably this evening.

The Lightning also have dressed five goaltenders this year (do you get the feeling this year has been one long audition for extras in a “Saw” movie?). Mike Smith was the number one goalie for most of the year, but he’s been out since January 30th after a concussion caught up with him. Karri Ramo has assumed the duties of shooting gallery target number one goalie. He’s been the goalie of record in 13 of 20 games since Smith went out. He is described as uncommonly quick. Well, he hasn’t been quick enough to avoid a 3-6-4 record or allowing 3.42 goals-per-60 minutes with a .903 save percentage since taking over.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Matt Lashoff

Lashoff came to the Lightning from Boston in the Mark Recchi trade. Coach Rick Tocchet is on record as stating that the power play quarterbacking duties will be his. For his part, Lashoff says, "...it's an opportunity for me to step up and come to the table and bring what I can bring. It's a part of the game that is an asset to me, my offensive ability. I have to take advantage of it." Now that, dear reader, is a fine example of the Ebby Calvin LaLoosh school of clichés. Think he’s up to the task? He has one point in 17 games this year and eight points in 47 career games. And, he took a gash on the leg in a game on February 28th that took 30 stitches to close. You can cease to wonder why Tampa is not a contender this year.

Washington: Sergei Fedorov

Fedorov had a bug earlier in the month that kept him out of a couple of games, but he looked pretty good against Florida the other night. He seems always to look good against the Bolts. In 25 career games, he is 15-22-37, +9, with five power play goals. He’s been a part of the F Street or the F-Bomb, or the Fe-Fi-Fo, or whatever F-related name you want to call it line with Tomas Flesichmann and Eric Fehr. It isn’t a bad line in concept. Flesichmann is a playmaker, Fedorov can be a playmaker or a scorer, Fehr is (we hope) a finisher. Against this defense, they should get opportunities to pad Fedorov’s career stats against the Lightning.

Tampa Bay has four defensemen who are likely to be out: Paul Ranger, Andrej Meszaros, Marek Malik, and Cory Murphy. That’s 1,330 games of NHL experience on the bench. Guys like Lashoff and Petiot are being thrown into the deep end of the pool, and tonight they will be in the really deep water against the Caps. On paper, the Lightning shouldn’t be within three goals of the Caps, even playing at home. But Tampa can score – Vincent Lecavalier and professional irritant Martin St. Louis still toil for this team. It could be a high scoring game, which might not be to Coach Bruce Boudreau’s liking, but it could be entertaining for folks watching on TV.

Caps 7 – Lightning 4

A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Panthers 0

Well…that was much better.

And that is what is so exasperating about the Capitals. On one night, they can look like the disinterested gifted student who gets an “F” as a result of his being bored by the assignment. On the very next night, they can look like “Team Lunch Pail,” punching the clock and tending to the job, grinding their opponent into dust.

Here is perhaps the most important single bit of information to take away from last night’s 3-0 win over the Florida Panthers. If you discount the empty net goal from Mike Green with 1:27 left, it is the first time the Capitals have won a game without the benefit of a goal from one of the “Young Guns” (Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green) since December 6th, when they defeated Toronto, 2-1, on goals by Karl Alzner and Milan Jurcina. Last night’s goals scored with a Florida goalie on the ice were scored by Brooks Laich and Viktor Kozlov.

Some other stuff…

OK…no shots for Florida in the third period. None. Kids, that only tells the half of it. From the time Karlis Skrastins fired a shot wide of the net (5:23 of the period), the Panthers were not credited with so much as an attempted shot until Richard Zednik had a shot blocked at 17:40 of the period. 12 minutes and 17 seconds of nothing. If you’re of a mind that Florida was a desperate team coming into this game, playing at home, then you have to give credit to the Caps for a masterful effort at defense, even if the Panthers aren’t the 1984 Edmonton Oilers.

Think Sergei Fedorov being in the lineup makes a difference? He won 10 of 13 draws, including six of seven, combined, in the offensive and defensive zones. You can’t use that high-powered offense if you don’t have the puck, and winning the faceoff is instant possession.

Speaking of faceoffs, the Caps did a much better overall job. Of six players who took more than one draw, five of them won more than they lost on the way to winning 32 of 55 overall.

John Erskine didn’t get a star, but he sure seemed to deserve one. Two assists, two shots on goal, three hits, three blocked shots, and a plus-2.

Kozlov was more active in the offensive side of things than just merely lugging the puck. Yes, he had the goal on a nifty little move when he adjusted the angle of his shot ever so slightly to leave Florida goalie Tomas Vokoun misaligned just enough on the wrist shot that eluded him, but Kozlov also had four shots on goal and eight attempts in only 13:51 of ice time. If he is actually a shooting threat, it could open things up a crack for Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom when he’s on that line.

No one, perhaps, turned his game around more in the space of 24 hours than Tom Poti. Seven blocked shots, 5:20 of spotless penalty killing time (tops on the team), and no blemishes on his score sheet line.

Speaking of blocks, the Caps blocked more shots (20) than the Panthers had on goal (19). We get that Florida isn’t an especially gifted offensive team, but still, that’s paying a price. Ten different Caps had at least one.

Committing four minor penalties is probably in the acceptable range for this team (although all four of them being of the “obstruction” sort – two holding, two interference – isn’t), but drawing only one penalty? That really needs improvement.

Eric Fehr and Tomas Fleischmann have a combined two points in their last ten games (both goals). Neither had a point last night, and neither had a shot on goal. That has to improve.

14 of 18 Florida skaters had one or no shots on goal.

Part of playing defense is not having to play defense. The Caps had only 11 turnovers (giveaways plus Florida takeaways).

With Donald Brashear not in the lineup, it seems that there was more balance in the ice time. No Cap had less than ten minutes. Only three had more than 20 minutes, all of them defensemen (Poti, Mike Green, and Jeff Schultz).

The Caps played as textbook a road game as you could draw up – keep things simple, work hard, take advantage of opportunities, get the crowd (such as it was) out of the game. Not every game has to be an effort to compile 60 minutes of SportsCenter highlights. In fact, chances are that in the playoffs, the Caps will be forced to play more games like last night’s than they will of the sort they played against Carolina last weekend.

See, guys?...you can do this.

Washington, we have a "special" problem

We're getting down to it now, when the little things matter, and the subtle things take on special importance. Today's topic, the Capitals' "special" problem.

When you're comparing numbers "for" and "against," there are some things that are not a problem. For instance, the Caps are among the leaders in the ratio of goals scored at 5-on-5 to goals allowed. Their ratio of 1.14, is tied for sixth in the league.

But when we get to special teams, well...Washington, we've got a problem.

Their power play -- by itself -- isn't a problem. They are humming along at 24.7 percent -- second in the league.

There are some underlying problems of both obvious and subtle nature that are picking away at their chances for success. The obvious one that screams off the page is penalty killing. At 79.5 percent, they are tied for 22nd in the league -- only Detroit is worse among playoff teams (that's not a misprint).

But dig under that penalty killing number -- and the power play one, too, for that matter -- and there is more.

First, the Caps have had the 292 power play opportunities this year. That's good for 15th in the league. Not bad, but consider...if the Caps were able to dive...uh, draw penalties as well as Carolina (327 power play opportunities), they'd have another nine goals at their current conversion rate.

Now, on the other side, no team in the NHL has found itself more times shorthanded than have the Caps -- 342 times in all. Think about that. The Caps have been shorthanded 50 times more than they have been on the power play (0.70 more per game). If the Caps were, say, 15th -- as they are on the power play opportunity ranking -- it would mean 11 fewer power play goals allowed, even at their relatively weak 79.5 percent penalty killing rate.

The combination of so many shorthanded situations faced with a weak power play compared to fewer power play opportunities with a strong power play is that for all the power play strength of the Caps, they have scored 72 power play goals while allowing 70, a "plus-2" outcome.

Now, consider this. While on the power play, the Caps have allowed nine shorthanded goals. Meanwhile, they have scored six shorthanded goals while killing penalties. The result is that their special teams have scored 78 goals while allowing 79.

The Caps have to have a second-ranked power play just to keep up with other deficiencies in their special teams. In the end, special teams -- an inability to draw penalties and an inability to kill them off -- could end up being what dooms this team.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, March 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s the last back-to-back of the season – regular season, that is – as the Caps travel to Sunrise, Florida to take on yet another desperate team, the Florida Panthers, on this St. Patrick’s Day even—

“Peeeerless, Happy Saint Paddy’s Day…”

The face is familiar, but…I’m not quite placing it…

“It’s yer long, lost coosin, Seamless…”

Shameless?

“Aye…me parents wanted to name me ‘Seamus,’ but dey messed up the birth certificate. You know how bright our side o’ t’family is.”

Yeah, Fearless and Cheerless have been by a few times.

“So, what’ve y’got planned fer dis Saint Paddy’s Day? A pint’r two o’ Guinness?”

Actually, we have a hockey game tonight.

“Hockey?...Oh, dat O’Vechkin lad…I heard o’ dat boy all the way back home.”

Hockey has no borders, cuz.

“And Mike Green…now dat’s a fella who probably sprang from the sod, himself.”

Alberta, actually.

“And tell me, Peeeeerless, who is ‘Shaone Morrisonn?’ His name is ahll right, but who spelt it fer ‘im, an Englishman?”

He’s from BC – British Columbia.

“Ahh…now I get it. British Columbia.”

OK, OK, let’s not start that…so, have you seen a hockey game?

“Can’t say dat I have…we don’t have much in de way of ice in Ireland, but we do have hurling.”

We have that here, too…usually after a few too many Guinnesses.

“Ah, g’won ya girrl.”

While Seamless (“Shameless” to you and me) ponders the intricacies of hockey, we’ll take a look at the Panthers, the latest in a parade of desperate teams to skate against the Caps. In fact, Florida has started to slip uncomfortably of late. Since putting together a modest three-game winning streak in February, the Panthers are 6-6-2 in their last 14 games and have managed only once to put together consecutive wins (against Washington and Atlanta to start March). They are currently on a three game losing streak (0-1-2, both of the extra time losses coming in Gimmicks). Their overall numbers look like this...

In those last 14 games, the Panthers have been outscored by the opposition to the tune of 43-36. Their special teams have performed at or near their season-long levels of production – the power play at 15.7% (eight-for-51) and the penalty killers at 86.5% (45-for-52).

What has taken a turn of sorts is the production of The Florida defense. First, there is the matter of Tomas Vokoun in goal. He won those three consecutive games in February against the Maple Leafs, Hurricanes, and Rangers. Since then, though, he has had a real fetish for giving up three goals a game. He’s done it seven times in ten games (he has a four-goals allowed game and two shutouts to complete the body of work). All told, he is 4-4-2, 2.47, .930 in ten appearances over this 14-game span. What is remarkable in those games is that Vokoun has faced a lot of shots – more than 35 per 60 minutes – and he has faced more than 40 four times (he is 1-2-1 in those games).

Craig Anderson got four consecutive appearances in the middle of the 14 game run and was rather inconsistent. He allowed six goals (loss), one goal (win), seven goals (loss), and two goals (win). Might be a good thing for the Caps if he starts…you can see the pattern.

Meanwhile, the skaters have managed to put up more than two goals only six times in those 14 games, although they have achieved it in each of their last four games (three of them losses, oddly enough).

The skaters are led in scoring by Stephen Weiss, but he seems to have dried up lately. In his last five games he is 0-2-2, -1, after a four-game span in which he was 1-6-7, even. Weiss has, however, had a successful campaign against the Caps this year. In four games he is 1-4-5, even. Those five points have come in the last two games for Weiss.

David Booth, on the other hand, has not dried up lately. He is 5-4-9, +2, in his last four games, with three power play goals. He leads the Panthers in power play tallies this year (nine). And, in keeping with this idea that he’s been the mirror image of Weiss in terms of performance, Booth hasn’t yet registered a point against the Caps this season in three games. For his career, he is 2-2-4, -1, in 17 games against Washington.

You might think that at this time of year, the Panthers might benefit in their push toward the playoffs with contributions from a veteran like Cory Stillman. Stillman has sort of puttered along of late. Since a 4-2 Caps win on February 15th Stillman is 2-4-6, +3, in 10 games. But he is almost a point-a-game player against the Caps over his career (11-22-33 in 35 games). He’s kept that up this year with a pair of assists in two games against Washington.

Jay Bouwmeester is still a Panther. What he hasn’t been lately is a difference-maker. In five games since the trading deadline, during which time the Panthers are 1-2-2 and have allowed 16 goals, Bouwmeester is 0-1-1, -1. Despite being fifth on the club in goals (tops among Florida defensemen), he has one in 18 games since February 5th – against the Caps on March 1st.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Michael Frolik

With Nathan Horton out with a severed tendon in his finger, taking his 19 goals and 19 assists with him (fourth in overall Panther scoring), Frolik needs to pick up some slack. He got a slow start on that, failing to get a point in the first two games after Horton left the lineup. But he had a goal and an assist against Tampa Bay last Saturday. He is 2-2-4, +2 in four games against the Caps this year, with goals scored in each of his last two games against Washington.

Washington: Tom Poti

You think he’d like to get on the ice tonight as fast as he can to erase the memory of last night? Poti was on the ice for all five Atlanta Thrasher goals in a 5-1 loss. With Mike Green sitting out a second game in a row a possibility, Poti could be called upon to be the quarterback of the Caps’ power play (0-for-4 last night). Poti has only two power play points this year (both assists), which isn’t exactly surprising when you notice that he has received 1:32 in power play ice time per game (Mike Green gets 5:29). But Poti isn’t a stranger to running a power play. It would be nice if he could summon up some memory here. And let’s just say that being on the ice for three power play goals…if that gets repeated, well…so will last night’s result.

You’d like to say that the Caps rebound well from such drubbings as that suffered at the hands of the Thrashers last night. The fact is, they don’t. The Caps are 4-6-1 in games following losses by at least three goals this year. That number three keeps coming up – that being the recent Vokoun fetish concerning goals allowed. It would be tempting to pick Vokoun to get his third shutout in his last ten games by a 3-0 score. But we don’t do that here. This being St. Patrick’s Day, we’re thinking of four-leaf clovers…

Caps 4 – Panthers 3

A NO-point night: Thrashers 5 - Caps 1

The best that can be said of that embarrassment is that there are just some games you’re not going to win, and the Caps certainly weren’t going to win this one…not the way they played. And that means that the worst one can say of this was that they just weren’t in much of a mood to play hockey. You could point to Sergei Fedorov and Mike Green being out, Brian Pothier being in after a 14-month absence, and the team having a lack of flow on offense, but that won’t explain the job the penalty killers did. They should return their pay envelope for this game.

Getting beat is not a sin. But getting outworked, outhustled, and outhit (save for an angry Alex Ovechkin) by a team that that took the ice with a two inch and ten pound disadvantage per skater…that just isn’t part of the excuse manual.

The Caps got into a running around contest with the Thrashers early, and never found much structure to their game until the third period, by which time goalie Kari Lehtonen had long established that he was in a groove, and even if he wasn’t, it was far too late to eat into a 4-0 Atlanta lead that the Thrashers built over the first 40 minutes.

Atlanta had nine shots on goal on their first four power plays, resulting in three goals. And this was a team without Ilya Kovalchuk.

Tom Poti had perhaps his most unfortunate, if not his worst night as a Cap. Asked to assume a lot of the role of Mike Green, he was on the ice for each of the first four goals scored by Atlanta. Then he had a terrible turnover at his own line that led to the last Atlanta goal in the third period.

As for Shaone Morrisonn, he was on the ice for each of the first four goals, too…he didn’t have the excuse of having to assume a bigger role.

If you’re tracking such things, that’s 12-5, Thrashers, in two games at Philips Arena. And, they are 6-for-13 on the power play (46.2 percent). That’s pretty good against air. The Caps have one more visit – April 7th.

- And did Tom Poti kill Keith Jones’ dog or something? Jones was relentless in his criticism of Poti on the Versus telecast, even well after the game was over. OK, it was largely deserved, but Keith, it probably wasn’t the worst performance in the NHL this year.

The lie of numbers…

- If someone showed you the final scoresheet and pointed out that the Caps outshot Atlanta, 50-25, would you think the Caps lost by four goals?

- If you saw that that the Caps out-attempted the Thrashers 83-38, would you believe that the Caps converted only one of those 83 attempts?

- If you were told that Alex Ovechkin had 20 attempts by himself – 10 shots on goal – would you believe he was shut out on the scoreboard?

- Or if Alex Semin had nine attempts, that he had the same result?...or eight for Milan Jurcina, ditto?

- Someone keep the faceoff results away from the Caps’ centers. Boyd Gordon – oh-for-six…Nicklas Backstrom – two-for-10…David Steckel – one-for-four…Michael Nylander – four-for-11. That’s seven-for-31. The team was 21 up and 39 down. Brutal.

- Has there been a better waiver wire pickup in the NHL than Rich Peverley? He had a really solid game, despite not netting a goal of his own. He’s 10-15-25, +10, in 27 games since joining the Thrashers.

- Eight hits? Eight? It looked like Ovechkin had that many in the last ten minutes of the second period.

- Tell me you had Zach Bogosian leading the Thrashers in shot attempts (seven)…ok, tied with Todd White.

- Ovechkin had as many misses as Bogosian had attempts. He was launching them from everywhere to try to get the Caps jump started.

Even though the Caps launched 50 shots on goal at Kari Lehtonen, they rarely got rebounds (Lehtonen did a fine job of redirecting or smothering them), and a lot of shots ended up in Lehtonen’s leg pads, suggesting an inability to get high shots on net (when they did shoot high, it was over the net).

And, there is the matter of the secondary scoring. Ovechkin, Semin, and Backstrom aren’t going to score every night. And when they didn’t tonight, there wasn’t anyone to pick up the slack. It’s been that way for a while now, and it is troubling.

So, let’s go back to that scoresheet…the Thrashers won more faceoffs, had more hits, had fewer giveaways, had more takeaways, had more blocked shots. Now you know why they won. They wanted it more.

Yanking Jose Theodore after giving up four goals on 19 shots in 33 minutes sets up an interesting scenario for tomorrow. One might have thought Simeon Varlamov would get the call tomorrow night in Florida, but does Coach Bruce Boudreau put Theodore back in the saddle tomorrow and give the rookie the start in Tampa on Thursday?

OK, we get it…Fedorov was held out, Green was held out. If it was the playoffs, we expect they probably would have played. But their absence unmasked a certain delicate balance the Caps seem to have, not to mention questionable depth (or at least some inconsistency) in important roles. No one could step in and win a draw (any draw), despite having – we’re told – two of the better faceoff men in the league. And no one could step in to even assume a faint echo of the role Mike Green plays. Brian Pothier could not be expected to assume that role, not with 14 months of rust. For the moment, he’s just out there to become re-acclimated to the speed of NHL games. Tom Poti has struggled with intermittent injuries this year and has never really been called upon to be the all-things in all-situations defenseman Green was becoming.

The Caps played a thoroughly acceptable game…after the first 35 minutes. But that’s really the definition of closing the barn door after the Thrasher got out. Those first 35 minutes the Caps looked slow and unengaged as the Thrashers were abusing them on the power play. How a team with that sort of size disadvantage could do such a job of screening Jose Theodore is mind-boggling.

The Caps could have taken over second place in the East with a win (although New Jersey would have had three games in hand). It was a lost opportunity. We’ve been saying that more and more lately, and it has an uncomfortable sound to it.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Monday…back to work. Tonight, it’s a visit to Atlanta to take on the Thrashers, a team playing out the string, counting the days, watching the calendar instead of the box scores…

“A team that’s won five in a row.”

Fearless?

“That’s right, cuz. And I wouldn’t be talking the Thrashers down too much.”

They’re 30 points behind the Caps.

“Yeah, and we don’t remember that the Caps once played a team in the playoffs it finished 29 points in front of in the regular season…and lost?”

That was more than 20 years ago, cuz…doesn’t the statute of limitations apply?

“It never applies when a dose of reality is needed.”

But the Thrashers…

“…laid a seven-spot on the Caps already this year.”

But…

"…they’ve played the Caps close in two other games."

OK, OK! You win, the Thrashers are the reincarnation of the 1978 Canadiens.

“Fine…by the way, how’d the Car-Wash go the other night? You get a lot of cars come in?”

…yeesh.

Let’s get to the game. The Thrashers have, in fact, won five in a row, including three over Western Conference teams – Calgary, Colorado, and Edmonton, none of which were beaten by the Caps this year …a fact by itself that should cause Caps fans worry.

Comfort, though, might be found in the overall numbers, which paint an Edvard Munch portrait for Thrasher fans…


“AIEEEEEEEEEEEEE!”

In those five straight wins, the Thrashers have outscored their opponents by 17-8. And, they’ve done it with balance. Ten players have scored those 17 goals, and 17 skaters have points.

Four players have at least five points in the games, led by Ilya Kovalchuk (1-5-6). Bryan Little (4-1-5), Todd White (2-3-5), and Vyacheslav Kozlov (1-4-5) are the others.

Kovalchuk is the Ferrari that has been running with sand in its gears for much of the season. In 53 games through February 6th, he was 21-29-50, -16. But in 15 games since then, he is 15-13-28, +7, and he has climbed to seventh in overall scoring in the league. For the season, he is 1-4-5, even, in three games against the Caps. For his career against Washington, he is 21-28-49, +12, in 40 career games. However, Kovalchuk aggravated the perilous “upper body injury” in a game against Edmonton last week and missed Saturday’s 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo. It isn’t certain whether he will play tonight or not.

Bryan Little and Todd White are a couple of guys who seem to hide in the weeds, and when you look up, they’ve pinned a goal and an assist on your goaltender. Little has been on something of a mini-run since mid-February. In his last 13 games, he is 8-5-13, +3, with a game-winning goal against Montreal on March 6th. He’s done his part against the Caps this year, too, posting a 2-3-5, plus-1 line in three games.

Meanwhile, White – the Thrashers’ second leading scorer – has been setting things up nicely for Atlanta while getting the occasional goal of his own. In his last 13 games, he is 5-11-16, +5. He, too, has found success against the Caps this year, going 2-4-6, even, in three games. Given his 7-12-19, +8 mark in 21 career games against the Caps, you’d think he’d merit some attention.

On defense, Zach Bogosian might have gotten a slow start to his rookie season, losing more than a month earlier in the year to a broken leg. But since returning to the lineup on New Year’s Eve, he is 5-6-11, +10 in 26 games. He’s also shown a propensity to shoot more in recent games, with 14 shots on goal in his last three games (two goals).

In goal, chances are the Caps will see Kari Lehtonen, who has improved his play of late. Since dropping a 4-3 decision to Florida to start the month, he is 4-0-0, 1.23, .960, with a pair of shutouts. Perhaps bad news for the Caps, he’s alternated shutouts and goals-allowed games. Since he gave up three in the win over Buffalo on Saturday, he’s on the “shutout” turn of his string. He is 9-6-2, 2.90, .914 and one shutout in 17 career games against Washington. However, over the last two seasons, he is 3-5-0, 3.38, .912 against the Caps.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Atlanta: Vyacheslav Kozlov

Slava Kozlov has had something of a odd season. He’s roughly on a pace to finish with 70 or so points, which would not be unusual for him (he’s topped that mark five times in his career, including two of the last three years). But he’s also on a pace to finish -20, which would be his worst career finish, no small feat considering he’s been -10 or worse in three of his last five years. Defense doesn’t appear to be his thing. He has perhaps no peer, though, in the Gimmick. For his career he is 22-of-38 (57.9 percent) in the trick show portion of the competition, including five-of-six this year. If it comes to that, it would seem the Caps would need at least two to win.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

It’s not “if,” it’s “when.” 50 goals, that is. And when would seem to be tonight. Ovechkin has abused Atlanta goaltenders as he has perhaps no other. In 27 career games against the Thrashers, he is 23-22-45. One of his three hat tricks this year is against the Thrashers, although that was at the expense of Ondrej Pavelec, not Kari Lehtonen. That’s ok…he has one against Lehtonen, too, turning the trick when he scored six seconds into overtime on December 15, 2006.

Don’t be looking at Atlanta’s overall record. Yes, they’ve had their troubles, and fundamentally this is not a very good hockey team. But they can put the puck in the net, and Lehtonen is capable of whipping up a superior performance. It is a team that is looking for its franchise-best sixth straight win. So, take them lightly at your peril, guys. In the battle of who is first to six – Atlanta’s winning streak overall or Washington’s road winning streak (they haven’t lost a road game in regulation since January 20th), guess who we like?

Caps 5 – Thrashers 2

The Consistency of Inconsistency...Among Commentators

The NBC Boys don’t seem to think much of the Caps chances for a Stanley Cup run with Jose Theodore as their goaltender (2:15 in for those of you not wanting to wait)…

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Theodore is described as “playing small” by Pierre McGuire and as “definitely an inconsistent goaltender” by Mike Milbury. Well, gee. If we want to shine the light on goaltenders in the East, we might as well send seven teams to the first tee now and just let Marty Brodeur suit up to meet whichever team comes out of the west. Why?...

In Boston, Tim Thomas probably merits the Vezina Trophy (Steve Mason fans, notwithstanding). But since going undefeated over a six game stretch in late January and early February, he is 5-5-1 and is showing his own signs of inconsistency. In five wins, he has allowed only eight goals. In six losses (including an overtime loss to Washington), he has allowed 14… not bad, certainly, but in his last five games he has a GAA of 2.62 and a save percentage of .911. Those are pretty ordinary numbers. A sign of a slump coming on?

In Philadelphia, the Flyers seem to want to give the keys to the car to Martin Biron, but he keeps on dropping them. Biron has played better lately – 3-2-0, 1.60, .942 in his last six appearances (he got a no-decision in relief of Antero Niittymaki in a 5-1 loss to Calgary). But before this latest run, Biron might have been the very epitome of “streaky.” Going back through his season, he had these records…3-5-0, 10-2-3, 3-5-1. Think he has the consistency for four series wins in him?

Milbury points to Marc-Andre Fleury’s record since Dan Bylsma took over behind the Pittsburgh bench and pronounces him “absolutely” good enough for the Penguins. OK, maybe. But in his 9-1-1 run under Bylsma, Fleury’s numbers are 2.56 and .906. Those aren't numbers that jump off the page. He can count wins against Florida (twice), Tampa Bay, the Islanders as part of that run. Maybe we shouldn't be all that quick to pronounce Fleury (who has otherwise mediocre numbers this year) “absolutely” the guy to carry a team deep into the playoffs.

In Montreal, Carey Price is about as likely to allow four or more goals on any given evening as not. He’s done it seven times in 17 games since January 21st, during which time he has gone 4-11-2 (he had a no-decision on February 15th against Vancouver). His save percentage over that span is .882, perhaps making folks in Montreal wonder if he really is ready to be the number one goalie for now. Does that mean the Habs turn to Jaroslav Halak? A guy with all of two playoff games on his resume (no wins)?

The Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist might be the best Eastern Conference goalie not named "Marty" to carry his team deep into the playoffs. And in fact, he seems to be getting out of a slump of his own – he has won his last five decisions (including a 4-1 win over Philadelphia today) and has allowed only nine goals in doing so. His trouble is having to bear too large a burden with the underachieving Ranger skaters angling for room to ride on his shoulders. From January 28th through February 26th, it looked as if that burden might finally be getting to Lundqvist, as he had a record of 2-7-4, 2.74, .912. He’d be the goalie who, along with Brodeur, could drag a team along with him for a playoff ride, but the Rangers have the worst offense in the league (2.40 goals/game).

In Carolina, Cam Ward is another one of those goalies who has played better of late (9-5-1 in his last 15 decisions, 2.24, .921), but who has a season of mediocrity behind him. His overall GAA and save percentage have him tucked safely into the middle of the NHL pack (17th and 22nd, respectively). And, before his latest 15-game run, he had one winning streak of more than three games this year (the same number as Jose Theodore). Ward’s problem might be that the Hurricanes are riding him so hard. He has been the goalie of record in 35 of the last 36 Carolina games and has played in 18 in a row. Given Carolina’s precarious hold on the eighth spot in the East, he’s not likely to get a break soon…or perhaps have anything left for the playoffs.

We’re not making the argument that Jose Theodore is a lock to be a Conn Smythe Trophy winner in the playoffs, or that he is even a lock to get the Caps to the second round. He is in the midst of his own bout of inconsistency (5-4-1 in his last ten decisions, 2.95, .905), but there is an annoying consistency in the commentary of “experts” with respect to Theodore’s play. It is, for lack of a better description, “creating a fact.” As if by saying a thing long enough and often enough, whatever the real performance of the player in question, that the repetition will create the “fact” that a player is, in this case, “inconsistent.” Hockey pundits have been pounding the theme of "Theodore isn't consistent enough to win" since he was signed, and it has shown no sign of abating. But there isn't a lot of ink or air time devoted to the chinks in the armor of the other goaltenders in the East. Even Brodeur, with that 7-1-0, 1.95, .930 record since returning from injury, has earned some of those wins over also-rans -- Colorado, Toronto, Phoenix -- and he was pasted by the Islanders for six goals. There aren't any sure things here.

Theodore has wrestled with bouts of inconsistency this year, and even for those who point to his propensity for post-Christmas success, he has had win-loss success (18-8-3), but his numbers of 2.52 and .914 that accompany that record aren’t extraordinary. However, they could be, given the talent elsewhere on this roster, enough to get the Capitals deep into the playoffs. His chances appear as good as just about any other goaltender in the East…well, except maybe for that Brodeur guy.

The Last Dozen: Then and Now

There are one dozen games left. If you’re thinking that there is still time to catch Boston for first in the Eastern Conference, a little rewind is in order -- a comparison to last year's chase of Carolina for the Southeast title:



That 11-1-0 record of last year would be hard to duplicate, especially since there isn’t the same urgency attached to simply making the playoffs. And Boston isn’t Carolina, even if the Bruins are only 8-8-3 since February 1st and 3-4-0 in March.

And there is the matter of the New Jersey Devils, a team that is 13-5-0 since February 3rd and 5-1-0 in March. What’s more, Martin Brodeur is 7-1-0 since his return from injured reserve and shows no signs of rust having accumulated during his layoff (he has allowed two or fewer goals in each of his seven wins).

The Capitals might catch Boston, after all, although it still seems highly unlikely. But the team they appear to have even a lesser chance of catching is New Jersey, which holds a one-point lead on Washington and two games in hand. The best hope for the other seven teams that make the dance in the East is that the Devils are peaking a month or two too soon.

The Caps had their fate in their own hands last year, in a sense. Two of those last dozen games were against the team in front of them – Carolina – and the Caps won both. The Caps have no games left with either Boston or New Jersey (and those two play each other one more time, so there remains the possibility of one of those three-point “draft” games where one team pulls another along, getting two points while the other gets one), although the Caps do appear to have the easiest schedule remaining, in terms of opponents' winning percentage, of any of the team now in the top eight in the East.

The striking thing about the Caps last year was their ability to absolutely shut teams down. Some of that might have been the play of goaltender Cristobal Huet, but consistently holding teams in check – the Caps allowed only 22 goals in their last 12 games, five of them in their only loss – suggests a team-wide adoption of a shut down mentality. In fact, the last dozen was a carry-over and improvement from their play over the previous five weeks. From February 1st through March 9th, when they played their 70th game, the Caps allowed only 44 goals in 18 games (2.44/game).

Last year, the rush to make the playoffs had its own sense of immediate urgency. There was no luxury, if that is the right word, to be able to prepare for the playoffs, to make sure all the players are on the same page in system and strategy. That is what is left for the Caps in the last dozen games this time around -- to tend to business in their own schedule, to get ready for the playoffs, to re-acquaint themselves with the structure that Coach Bruce Boudreau cited as necessary for the playoffs. In that way, it might not going be so much going back to last year, it might be going back to training camp.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Hurricanes 4 (OT/Gimmick)

It’s the time of year when no one should think anything is going to come easily.

The Caps fought off a game Carolina Hurricanes squad last night, 5-4, in a Gimmick to increase their Southeast Division lead to 14 points and match their high water mark of the year, going 22 games over .500.

It was the sort of “playoff intensity” game you might want to see if you’re a suit at NHL headquarters. Shooters for both teams had their way with both defenses. Specifically, it was a night for the top lines for both clubs.

Carolina’s top line of Eric Staal (1-2-3, +3), Erik Cole (1-1-2, +3), and Ray Whitney (1-1-2, +4), who got time with the other two in place of Tuomo Ruutu, was virtually unstoppable for the Hurricanes. They had a hand in three of the Hurricanes’ four goals.

On the other hand, the Capitals’ trio of Alexander Semin (1-3-4, -3), Alex Ovechkin (1-1-2, -2), and Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2, -2) abused the Hurricanes penalty killers – the Caps were 3-for-4 on the power play – and had a hand in all of the Caps’ four goals.

As suggested in those last two paragraphs, this was two distinct games within a game. At even strength, the Hurricanes had a 4-1 advantage. Meanwhile, the Caps won the special teams play, 3-0. Perhaps most important for the Caps, that zero was a product of having to kill off a penalty in the overtime session, part of a six-for-six save performance in the extra session for goalie Jose Theodore.

Watching this game was like watching teams that are echoes of one another…

Alex Ovechkin – he of the gaudy shot totals – had 14 attempts, eight on goal. Eric Staal – he of gaudy stats of his own lately – had 16 attempts six on goal.

Mike Green – the top scoring defenseman in the league – had five shot attempts. Joe Corvo – the Hurricanes’ leading scorer among defensemen – had nine shot attempts.

Alexander Semin – the top scorer no one seems to pay much attention to – had eight attempts. Ray Whitney – the guy who seems to get lost on the Hurricanes’ roster – had six attempts.

Jose Theodore – seen as perhaps the weak link on this team – stopped 28 of 32 shots (many of them high quality), including all six he faced in overtime, then shut the door on both Carolina shooters in the Gimmick. Cam Ward – who seems to have spent his recent career trying to justify his winning the Conn Smythe Trophy in the 2006 Stanley Cup playoffs – stopped 27 of 31 shots (many of them high quality), including both shots he faced in overtime.

Unfortunately for the Hurricanes, the scoring went:

Ovechkin: 1-1-2
Staal: 1-2-3

Green: 1-1-2
Corvo: 0-0-0

Semin: 1-3-4
Whitney: 1-1-2

Theodore: 1.000 save percentage in the Gimmick (2-for-2)

Ward: .333 save percentage in the Gimmick (1-for-3)

And what the Hurricanes don’t have is an answer for a guy like Nicklas Backstrom, whose 1-1-2 line gave him points in 15 of his last 16 games. His assist gave him a total of 55 for the season to match his total for last year.

Speaking of Backstrom, a slight detour is in order. If you’re looking at last year’s Calder finalists, the race looks like this…

If the Caps didn’t have a monster night hitting Hurricanes (well, given some of the totals we’ve seen at the Verizon Center, maybe their 28 total hits was “monster”), they spread it around. Only Nicklas Backstrom and Michael Nylander didn’t register one.

It isn’t often that the Caps get out attempted in shots, especially at home. But last night, Carolina tipped the scale far in the direction of the visitors, out-attempting the Caps 79-46. The flip side of that is that Carolina got 32 of their attempts on goal (45.1 percent), while the Caps got 31 of theirs through to Cam Ward (67.4 percent).

Paul Maurice played with a pretty short bench for Carolina. Ryan Bayda took two shifts in the first period (1:28 total) before retiring for the evening. Tim Conboy took three shifts in the first period (2:36 total) and didn’t return for the evening. At least Patrick Eaves lasted into the second period, but he played a total of 6:06 and didn’t appear in either the third period or overtime.

It was a reversal of fortune for the Hurricanes in one respect. The last time these teams met, the Hurricanes managed only one even-strength goal, but had two short-handed, one power-play, and a penalty shot goal. Last night, no special teams theatrics, but they did have four even-strength goals.

Last night’s splatterage trophy on the score sheet goes to Chad LaRose for the Hurricanes. One shot, two shots blocked, four misses, two hits, a giveaway, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and three faceoffs (all losses) to go along with a plus-1. He didn’t however, have a point.

The Caps had a deceptively effective night in the faceoff circle. Carolina was 16-for-30 in neutral zone draws, but five of those wins came against guys who might not be the first go-to center to take draws – Keith Aucoin, Tomas Fleischmann, and Brooks Laich. Meanwhile, Nicklas Backstrom won 12-of-21 draws, including 8-of-13 (combined) in the offensive and defensive zones. David Steckel was 10-for-13, including 7-for-9 (combined) in the offensive and defensive zones. Even Michael Nylander was 3-for-4 in defensive zone draws.

It was an entertaining game, but probably not the sort one is going to see in the playoffs. Coach Bruce Boudreau alluded to as much in his post-game comments…

“It was like pond hockey, and in the playoffs you have to play much more structured.”

There was a lot of up and down – mostly down, if you’re looking toward Jose Theodore. Carolina had four clean breakaways in the second period alone, including a shorthanded break by Chad LaRose. Ray Whitney had one, following a 5-on-1 Caps rush at the other end that netted nothing, which Theodore stopped. But he couldn’t stop Eric Staal swooping in to collect the loose change. Theodore, despite allowing four goals, might have been the best player on the ice for either team in this one. He simply had too many high-probability scoring chances to have to defend.

But part of winning is getting that extra point when the other guys are playing their game their way. Carolina might be the fastest team – top to bottom – in the Eastern Conference. Adding Erik Cole provides a power dimension that now must be reckoned with. Both speed and power were on display for Carolina last night, and yet the Caps still got the extra point, because they are a team of superior skill. And it was the Caps’ skill guys who paved the way…with more than a little help from the goaltender no one outside of DC seems to have much use for.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are back home after a short, but profitable, two game spin on the road. Four points earned was just the tonic for the team after a lackluster home stand. But now, the Caps get to slam a nail into the coffin of the Carolina Hurricanes’ faint hopes of overtaking the Caps to win the South—

“Hey, cuz?”

What is it Cheerless?

“It says here in the noozpaper that there’s a Car-Wash at Verizon Center t’nite.”

No, not “Car-Wash”…Carolina-Washington…the hockey game.

“Y’mean there’s gonna be a hockey game while they’re warshin’ cars?”

They’re not warsh…washing cars. It’s Carolina and Washington…those are the teams playing tonight.

“Are they playin’ in a car warsh?”

NO!...Listen, they are playing hockey…in a hockey rink. It’s a hockey game.

“Well, are they warshin’ cars after the game?”

--tap-tap-tap--… no, they are not washing cars after the game. They’re going to come, play hockey, and go home.

“Can fans warsh their cars whilst they’re playin’ hockey?”

NNNNNNNNNNNNNO! It’s NOT a car wash, it’s Car-Wash…Car-Wash…Carolina…Washington…Car-Car-Car…Carolina…”

"Why can’t they warsh their cars? They’re takin’ Metro instead o’ drivin’? "

Yeah, that’s it…they’re taking Metro instead of driving.

"Gee, cuz…why would they do that? Metro sucks."

Ugh…

Well, hopefully the Caps won’t suck as they face a familiar foe at home. The Hurricanes come into Verizon Center as something of an unknown, though. After starting March with a bang – winning their first four games by a combined 23-6 score (including a 5-2 thwapping of the Caps), the Hurricanes have lost their last two, a 3-2 Gimmick loss to Chicago and a 3-2 loss to Dallas. Both were on the road.

On the other hand, while Carolina comes into this game 2-2-0 against the Caps this year, their wins have come in the last two contests played between the teams. Overall, they have put themselves in a position to challenge, if not realistically for the Southeast Division title, then for a playoff spot. Their overall numbers are pretty respectable:


While they do not have the top-end offensive firepower that the Caps bring, the Hurricanes do have balance. They have 18 players with at least ten points (the Caps have 16), and nine players with at least ten goals (the Caps have ten). And, their special teams have been very good lately. The power play has registered at least one goal in seven straight games (10-for-35, 28.6 percent). Meanwhile, their penalty killers have skated off 25 of 28 shorthanded situations (89.3 percent) over the same span of games.

The group is led by Eric Staal, who is tied for the team lead in points with Ryan Whitney (60), but who has been on a tear over the last month. Since going 1-2-3 in a 3-0 win at Buffalo on February 15th, Staal is 9-12-21, +5, in 14 games, during which Carolina has gone 9-4-1. Staal’s success against the Caps this year has mirrored that of his team. Scoreless in each of the first two games of this year’s series – both losses – he has goals in each of the last two games in Carolina wins. For his career, he is 13-17-30, even, in 34 games against the Caps.

Whitney, in a typically (for him) understated style, has gone 4-11-15, +5, over his last 14 games. And, like Staal, his performance against the Caps this year mirrors the Carolina fortunes. He was held, like Staal, without a point in the first two games. But in the last two, he is 2-2-4. In 50 career games against the Caps, he is 17-27-44, +5.

Even Rod Brind’Amour, who seemed to be on a path to what would arguably be the worst season of his career (projecting to fewer than 50 points and a plus-minus past -30), seems to have turned things around. He is 4-3-7, +4, in six games in March. That plus-4 has dragged his season mark to -26, which still leaves him safely tucked into 855th place among 856 players in the NHL (only Brendan Witt has a worse number, -32). And, he’s been something of a Cap killer in his career with eight game-winning goals among the 38 he’s scored in 95 games.

Carolina has four defensemen with at least 20 points this year (the Caps have one). Joe Corvo, Joni Pitkanen, Dennis Seidenberg, and Anton Babchuk have combined for 32 goals scored from the blue line (the Caps, as a group, have 36). Perhaps fortunately for the Caps, this quartet has a total of two goals scored against the Caps in a combined 58 career games. None of them have scored against the Caps this year. If there is a big bopper in the defenseman squad, it would be Tim Gleason, who ranks 15th in the league in hits among defensemen. Seidenberg can lay the lumber from time to time as well (he’s 26th).

In goal, bet on Cam Ward getting the start. He’s been in every game played by the Hurricanes since Christmas, except one – 34 of 35 games. One might say he thrives on the work. In March, he is 4-1-1, 1,82, .942, and one shutout. He is 1-1-0, 2.50, .932 in two games against the Caps this year, and 11-5-1, 2.55, .920, with three shutouts against the Caps over his career.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Erik Cole

In 63 games with the Edmonton Oilers, Cole was a disappointment – 16-11-27, -3. Since returning to Carolina at the trading deadline, he is 1-5-6, +1, in five games, including a four-assist effort against Tampa Bay on March 7th. Caps fans might like to think the bloom is off the rose, though, since Cole is scoreless in his last two outings (perhaps not coincidentally, both losses). Cole and Staal seem to have a chemistry that carries over from their first marriage, before Cole was sent to Edmonton (for Pitkanen, it turns out). Cole is the sort of power forward that has given the Caps problems from time to time this year – he had a hat trick against the Caps when the Oilers visited in January.

Washington: Viktor Kozlov

Kozlov has struggled with injury and performance in the 2009 portion of the season. Since January 1st, he is 2-6-8, even, in 21 games. He doesn’t have a goal since January 31st (nine games). After finishing last season at plus-28, Kozlov stands at minus-6 for this season, tied for last on the team. The Caps have depended on the graces of the Alexes and Nicklas Backstrom a little too much lately among the forwards. The Caps are going to need others to step up. Much has been made over the lack of secondary scoring and the lack of contributions from the bottom half of the forward lines, but getting some more production on the score sheet from Kozlov would help, too. This might not seem like the team to start that trend with, since Kozlov is only 7-18-25, -2, in 48 career games against the Hurricanes, and he is scoreless (with a minus-4) in four games this year against Carolina. On the other hand, he’s due.

Carolina is playing its sixth game in the past nine days. It is, as coach Paul Maurice calls it, “about as tough as you can get in the NHL.” It is the Caps’ job to make things even tougher. Get on them early, get on them aggressively, and get them thinking thoughts of their plane flight home.

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 2 - Flyers 1

Thanks, Philly.

We don’t know quite what to make of what took place last night in Philadelphia as the Caps defeated the Flyers, 2-1, for their fifth consecutive road win…

Was it the Jose Theodore Talent Show? Theodore set the tone for his game in the contest’s first minute, stuffing a point-blank attempt from Mike Knuble. He would later rob Kimmo Timonen by diving across the crease to glove a drive after he had trouble getting traction on his skates. However, on the latter, if Theodore isn’t a right-handed catching goalie, he isn’t making that save.

Even Philadelphia’s goal was a product of a perfect storm of events that Theodore couldn’t do much about. The Caps were caught in a bit of a sloppy change, and Milan Jurcina chose that moment to step up on Simon Gagne just inside the Caps blue line. Alex Ovechkin – who was just getting onto the ice – couldn’t get into the play fast enough, and Jeff Schultz was left as the last man back on a two-on-one to defend Mike Richards and Mike Knuble. After Richards took a pass from Gagne, he sent a slap pass to Knuble, who had an open net to shoot at after Theodore went down to defend what he thought was a shot coming from Richards. Ovechkin was left about a stride behind Knuble as the Flyer was depositing the puck in the net.

Was it the Alex Ovechkin Variety Show? 15 shot attempts (eight on goal), a goal, an assist, three hits. He had several drives that might have found the net but for some timely scrambling by Flyer goalie Martin Biron (who probably deserved the third star more than Mike Knuble). On this night, at least, Ovechkin seemed to solve the problem that has been Flyer defenseman Kimmo Timonen. Ovechkin used his size to greater advantage, barreling through Timonen when confronted along the boards and using it to get some separation in good shooting areas.

And Ovechkin made up for that inability to get into the play on the Knuble goal by saving Mike Green’s bacon on the power play. After Green intercepted a clearing effort by Braydon Coburn at the Caps’ blue line. As Green skated to the red line rather nonchalantly, his pocket was picked by Simon Gagne, who hotfooted it the other way on a break. Ovechkin, who if you look at the video is skating toward the Flyer end at the moment Gagne makes the steal, can be seen anticipating what is unfolding, started high-tailing it himself in pursuit of Gagne. He managed to catch up enough to dive and sweep the puck off of Gagne’s stick before hauling down the Flyer forward and sliding into the cage himself. Wonder what Adam “The Hack” Gretz thinks of that.

Was it Alexander “Light Finger” Semin? It was Semin who pilfered a pass from Darrell Powe behind the Flyer net, then sent the puck out to Ovechkin at the door-step for the game-winning goal.

And then there was the matter of the Flyers. Who kidnapped them and left that bunch? By the end of the night, Philly fans were in a surly mood, and it might have been as much over the passive play of the home team as the result. The NHL score sheet will record that the Flyers had 24 hits. Don’t know what game they were watching. One number tells us about all we need to know about the state of Flyers physical game in this one – zero. That is the number of hits recorded by professional pest, Scott Hartnell in almost 19 minutes of play. That would also be the number that designated hooligan Riley Cote would have, although his goose egg came in only five minutes of play.

On top of being passive, the Flyers were sloppy – 39 turnovers (giveaways plus Capitals takeaways). That the Flyers would have more giveaways (25) than hits (24) is a good indicator that this wasn’t their typical game.

Even the penalties the Flyers took – hooking and interference (that’s right, only two minors) were of the passive, obstruction sort.

Speaking of hits, or lack thereof, from the home team, it was nice to see a Cap – David Steckel – abuse a Flyer in his own end (Claude Giroux), steal his lunch and force Biron to make a big save. That was the way this game went in a nutshell.

Speaking of abuse, though…16 for 48 on faceoffs?...4 of 13 in the defensive zone. Mike Richards and Jeff Carter combined to go 11-of-13 in the offensive zone, putting the Caps’ defense and Jose Theodore behind the eight-ball right off the bat on at the start of a lot of plays. A team ought to win more draws than that by accident.

Imagine…a goal scored from inside of 30 feet. Brooks Laich scored a power play goal from nine feet (according to the league play-by-play sheet) off a slap pass from Ovechkin. Not all goals from inside 15 feet are ugly. That one was rather pretty, all in all.

Daniel Briere…12 minutes, one shot, three draws (all wins, natch). At least he finished the game upright.

Nothing, not even a win over the Penguins, beats a win in Philly. For the longest time, the Caps couldn’t buy a win there with bailout money. But this makes five wins at Wachovia in the last six regular season games. After such a disappointing home stand, a sweep of the short road swing was nice. Now, the Caps have 13 games left, 10 of them against Southeast Division opponents. Time to take care of business. But this was a sweet one, guys.