The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!

Well, Alex Ovechkin is on the shelf for two games for his shove to Chicago’s Brian Campbell on Sunday. Colin Campbell, the NHL’s Vice President of Silly Walks deemed the play “reckless” on Ovechkin’s part. Frankly, we think that the whole review of player penalties for purposes of fines and suspensions is shrouded in too much mystery. It’s not as if we’re electing a Pope here. Everyone would be better served if the process was conducted in the open. When you add in the fact that suspending Ovechkin makes him unavailable to play against the Florida Panthers this evening – a club that employs Campbell’s son, Gregory – it might have been better if the process had been conducted by a respected independent jurist. We’re thinking (and we think you’re thinking it, too)… Yup, Judge Judy. Here is how it might have gone…

Announcer: You are about to enter the courtroom of Judge Judy. The people are real. The cases are real. The rulings are final. This is her courtroom. This is Judge Judy.

The Bailiff: Order, all rise.

Announcer: The National Hockey League is considering the case of Brian Campbell versus Alex Ovechkin in which the latter is accused of committing the penalty of “boarding,” resulting in injuries to Mr. Campbell that will end his participation in further National Hockey League games this season.

The Bailiff: Be seated! Your honor, this is case number 101. Campbell vs. Ovechkin. All parties have been sworn in.

Judge Judy: All right, lets get down to business here. Now, Mr Campbell, you contend you were – what it the term – “boarded” by Mr. Ovechkin, is that right?

Campbell: ohhhhhhhhhhhhh…. ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

Judge Judy: I’ll take your moans as a ‘yes.’

Campbell: --gurgle, gurgle--

Judge Judy: So, Mr. Ovechkin, you are responsible for this man's injuries, is that correct?

Ovechkin: It was not a hard hit. I just pushed him. It's just a moment in the game.

Campbell: OHHHHHHHHHHHHH…. Uhhhh…

Judge Judy: Hey! Hey! Bup, bup! Hey! Listen bo-jangles, you do not want me to come over there!

The Bailiff: You do not want that.

Judge Judy: Now continue, sir.

Ovechkin: I don't think it has to be five minutes or something like that. I just felt bad. That's it.

Niklas Hjalmarsson: I thought it was a late hit. That's the kind of situation you really hurt yourself. I hope they take a good look at that hit and suspend him for a couple of games.

Judge Judy: You do not want me to come over there, sir. Okay? Interrupt again, and you'll be dancing with the nutcracker [taps gavel on gavel platform]. Yeah, just put them right here they'll fit. All right, now Mr. Ovechkin, sir, I’m getting the impression you do not respect your fellow competitors.

Ovechkin: I respect everybody. We respect everybody here in the locker room and outside, but over there, we play for our team, and we make some hard hits, and sometimes, you get hurt. That's a hockey game.

Judge Judy: Oh, I gotta see this.

The Bailiff: She got to see this [runs clip of hit].

Ovechkin: See? It was not a hard hit. I just pushed him.

Judge Judy: Sir, I’m the one wearing the black robe here… that means I’ll be the judge of that.

Ovechkin: But Judge…

Judge Judy: Do not ‘Judge” me, sir… I’ll ‘Judge” you…. Get it? Burt, write that down…

The Bailiff: “I’ll… judge… you. Got it, your honor.”

Campbell: OHHHHHH….ohhhhhh…. OHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

Ovechkin: “sounds like Crosby when someone skates by…”

Judge Judy: Okay, sir, bup bup!! No. The club is closing, sir! The club is full. All right, I'm ready to rule!

The Bailiff: oh, the good part!

Judge Judy: Mr. Ovechkin, you may not be aware of this, but I was quite the hockey player when I was a teenager [pulls partial denture out of mouth]. Mff…muhh.. mffmfff [puts partial back in] What I was trying to say was, no one is gonna pull the visor over these eyes, got it? I'm the boss, Applesauce.

Campbell: wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze…

Judge Judy: Are you in pain, Mr. Campbell?

Campbell: ohhhhhhhhhhh…

Judge Judy: "ohhhhhhhhhhhhh" is not an answer! What kind of training did you need to do "ohhhhhhhhhhh"?

Bruce Boudreau: See? See?

Judge Judy: Hey, hey! Bup, bup! Sir, sir! Okay, okay I'm gonna tell you to shut that wood chopping accident you call a mouth! … The court rules in favor of the plaintiff! Mr. Ovechkin, you are sentenced to two games without pay, although frankly why this ever came to my court, I’ll never know.

Well, the Judge – and Colin Campbell – have ruled and the Caps have to make do without their captain tonight when they face the Panthers in Sunrise. The Panthers come into this game watching their slim playoff hopes slipping away, despite a respectable 4-2-0 record since the Olympic break. With 15 games to play, the Panthers find themselves in 12th place in the East, five points behind eighth-place Boston with one game in hand. Overall, their numbers compare to those of the Caps as follows…

David Booth was flattened by a Mike Richards open-ice hit in a 5-1 loss to the Flyers on October 24th. The concussion he suffered in that game kept him out of the lineup until January 31st. He struggled after that return, going 0-2-2, minus-2 in seven games. But since the break he has come alive. In six games he is 2-5-7, plus-3, including a four-point night against those same Flyers in a 7-4 win on March 3rd. It was a game in which he settled a score, too, taking a five minute fighting major with Richards in the first period of that game. If the Panthers are going to win this game – if fact, make any further progress toward a playoff spot – Booth has to be a big part of it. He has yet to face the Caps this year, but last year he was 2-3-5 in five games.

The reason Booth’s return to the lineup and return to effectiveness is so important is that Nathan Horton remains out of the lineup. He is still recuperating from a broken leg, suffered January 21st against the Islanders. While he did return to the ice to practice with the team on Monday, he is not expected to return to the lineup until the end of the week at the earliest.

So, more of the burden falls to players like Michael Frolik. The second-year forward has four goals in his last five games and is now the Panthers third-leading overall scorer behind Horton and Stephen Weiss. It is another welcome spark for the Panthers, since Frolik had been ice cold going into the Olympic break (0-4-4 in his last 15 games going into the break). He is 2-1-3 in five games against the Caps this year, but is also a minus-4 in doing it. Things seem to happen when he’s on the ice for the Panthers, both good and bad.

Bryan McCabe leads the defense in scoring (8-27-35), and he is 1-8-9 in the six games since the break, including a four-point night (1-3-4) against the Flyers in the March 3rd game. He has three helpers in five games against the Caps this year, but he, too, has been on the wrong side of the plus-minus ledger in those games (minus-3).

If it’s Florida, it must mean Tomas Vokoun. It’s Vokoun pretty much every night. He’s been in the nets in 26 of the last 27 games for Florida this season (as well as backstopping the Czechs at the Olympics), his only night off coming in the first game back from the break. Playing in the Panthers’ last five games, he is 4-1-0, 2.35, .938. While he’s been sharp lately, he hasn’t been against the Caps. In three appearances this year he is 0-2-1, 3.62, .891, although holding the Caps to less than their average goal scoring production can't be said to be bad goaltending.

The Peerless Players to Ponder:

Florida: Stephen Weiss

Weiss has had success against the Caps this year (3-2-5) in five games. But Weiss is another player who has been on the ice for a fair number of goals against (he is minus-4 in those five games). He is currently on a four game streak without a point, and if the Panthers are to make a dent in the standings, he has to play to the leading scorer level he occupies with this team.

Washington: Mike Knuble

With Ovechkin out, more of the scoring burden falls to players like Knuble. Not that he’s suffered in that area against this team. In four games against the Panthers this year, Knuble is 4-4-8, plus-4. Florida might be just the tonic for Knuble, who is 2-1-3 in seven games since the break.

Keys:

1. Play your game… play your game. The Caps did just that when Ovechkin was tossed in the game on Sunday. But tonight, they have had a couple of days to think about it, and they’ve known since late yesterday that they would play without their captain. It’s not like the Caps don’t have other weapons. If they play their game, they have more than enough talent to be successful.

2. Make ‘em pay. Florida’s penalty killing is almost as woeful as the Caps. They rank 24th overall in that statistic, and they have the 27th-ranked home penalty kill. Only Edmonton and Atlanta have allowed more power play goals at home than the 28 the Panthers have allowed in 32 games.

3. Ready…aim… oh, shoot, just fire! Florida allows more shots per game than any team in the league – 34.0/game. That is absolutely lethal against a team like Washington… so long as the Caps don’t decide to dazzle the fans with a pointless passing exhibition. Shoot the puck.

In the end, here are the numbers that are relevant -- the Caps have outscored the Panthers by 28 goals in the first period, 30 goals in the second, and 37 goals in the third period. If the Caps lose this game, it is not because Alex Oveckhin is in the press box.

Caps 5 – Panthers 2


with thanks as we borrow from Judge Judy's own words and the fine writers of Saturday Night Live, not to mention real quotes from the players...well, except the "ohhhh" part form Mr. Campbell... and Ovechkin's crack about Crosby.

One Play, Two Points of View

Earlier today, the Washington Capitals defeated the Chicago Blackhakws, 4-3, in overtime.  But the incident that has tongues a-wagging and keyboards a-clacking is the hit by Alex Ovechkin on Blackhawks defenseman Brian Campbell.  On the one hand, it was an incidental hit -- a "hockey play" -- that merely had an unfortunate result.  On the other, it was a premeditated attempt at injury that was borderline felonious.  We've obtained exclusive footage (ok, screen shots from the NBC feed) of the sequence of events, and commentary from each side of the debate...

OK, here is Campbell getting control of the puck at the Chicago blue line, and there is Ovechkin doing what he's supposed to do as the first man in on the forecheck -- go after the puckcarrier.

What you see here is Brian Campbell in open ice about to get control of the puck and start the other way.  Unbeknown to him, there is lurking in his wake -- like the merciless Great White Shark (no coincidence he's wearing a white jersey, better to camouflage himself) -- Alex Ovechkin drawing a bead on his unsuspecting prey.

* * * * *

Here is Campbell tracking down the puck sliding through the faceoff circle.  Ovechkin is skating after him to force Campbell to make a quick decision of what to do with the puck, which is what you want the player to do in that instance.  Duncan Keith is quietly thinking, "uh-oh..."

Here is Campbell, skating after the puck while Ovechkin has locked onto his target, fully armed and ready to inflict maximum damage.  Duncan Keith is like the Secret Service agent walking along with the limousine in Dallas, powerless to prevent what is about to happen a mere feet in front of him.

* * * * *

Campbell is sweeping the puck to the side boards, leaving it for Duncan Keith, but his body is blocking Ovechkin's view.  Ovechkin can't be sure Campbell doesn't have the puck.

Campbell is sweeping the puck to the side boards, thinking his role in this play is over for the time being.  But he cannot know the malice that lurks in the beating heart of Ovechkin as his prey lies vulnerable to what is about to unfold.

* * * * *

Campbell turns away from his pass, taking him into the path of Ovechkin and leaving him in no position to fend off a collision.  He is leaning into the play, precariously perched in such a fashion that perhaps the slightest nudge will knock him off his skates entirely.  Antti Niemi appears to be shouting "LOOK OUT," but Campbell not understanding Finnish, thinks he is saying "NICE PASS."

Campbell is circling away from the puck, no longer a part of the play, but Ovechkin trains his sights on him, determined to finish the kill shot.  Goalie Antti Niemi can only watch helplessly as the assassination takes place.

* * * * *

Ovechkin makes contact with Campbell, who is still leaning in the opposite direction from the pass he made, leaving him unable to brace himself from any hit that might come.  Duncan Keith is quietly thinking, "yup...uh-oh."

The kill shot -- Ovechkin delivers his 235 pounds of mayhem directly to the numbers of Campbell, a shot from which Campbell has no hope of recovering.  Duncan Keith is spellbound by the horror unfolding.

* * * * *

Unable to brace himself from contact, Campbell falls forward awkwardly, landing in the end boards shoulder first.  Ovechkin is not in what one might think of as the sort of stance that would indicate a desire to drive the player into the boards.

Ovechkin is leering over his target, completing the kill shot.  Our Russian is bad, but one could almost hear him freakishly shrieking, "DIE BLACKHAWK SCUM...DIE!!!"  Or maybe, "oops..."  Like we said, our Russian is bad.

* * * * * 

Ovechkin is trying to avoid the fallen Campbell, who he knows has taken a bad fall. 

Ovechkin is about to provide the piece-de-resistance, trying to cut Campbell in two with his skate as he passes over him.  The Morton's the Steakhouse advertisement provides one last bit of cruel irony, for Ovechkin has just feasted on the carcass of Brian Campbell in one of the most dastardly displays of on-ice violence in the history of the sport.

* * * * * 

We do not mean to make light of an injury -- it is never a trivial matter.  It's just that in the last eight hours or so we have read some strange reactions to it.  From, "what's the big deal?" to "When is the date for execution?"  We are inclined to think the play was justly penalized, but whether it merited the five-minute major and game misconduct, we're not entirely in agreement with that. 

Looking at it, there is the hit, and there is the effect. What Ovechkin did was not an especially egregious play, physically. He pushed Campbell. In open ice, Campbell gets up and skates away. It’s the circumstance — Campbell was vulnerable and had no opportunity to brace himself for a full-on hit into the boards. And that led to the unfortunate effect.

This isn’t Ovechkin trailing Campbell and running his head into the boards (or, to repeat the verb one wag I saw using on Twitter, Campbell was "rammed" into the boards). It was a shove. The effect was much greater than the hit.

Is Ovechkin to blame? That’s a tough call. In real time, does a player have time to process an answer to the question, “should I hit this guy?” When Ovechkin shoved Daniel Briere into the Sabres' bench door frame a couple of years ago, you could fault Ovechkin for that. To me, this is a much tougher call. Campbell had just played the puck (although it was well off his stick when Ovechkin made contact).

If Ovechkin is suspended, I think I will be able to understand the reasoning, even if I don't agree with it.  But on its face it is not a clear cut call and perhaps merely one player getting into an unfortunate position based on the play he made.  Not to make it Campbell's fault, not at all; he made the smart play there.  But at the speed of this game, even the smart play -- or something as simple as a shove -- can have unfortunate results.

A TWO-point afternoon: Caps 4 - Blackhawks 3 (OT)

Here is what the first paragraph of this was going to read at, oh, about 2:00 on Sunday afternoon…

“If you’re not going to do the little things, and if you’re going to play stupid, this is what happens against a good team that is motivated… you get run out of the building.”

Well, that was at about 2:00 on Sunday afternoon, or about the time at which the Caps found themselves down after 40 minutes by a 3-0 score to the Chicago Blackhawks after taking five first period penalties, getting only 18 shots on goal (actually, a lot by Blackhawk standards for shots allowed), watching as Alex Ovechkin was tossed for pushing Brian Campbell into the end boards head first, and generally giving voice to those who might think that the Caps are more the product of a weak Southeast Division than truly a ready for prime time championship contender.

Then they dropped the puck for the third period. And it was the Caps doing the running and the Blackhawks playing dumb. The first 3:50 of the period went uneventfully, with the Caps recording the only shot on goal – that by Brooks Laich. It looked for all the world like the beginning of a period in which the Caps and Blackhawks would play out the string – the Caps doing what they could against a very good defensive team bent on playing prevent defense.

Then Jordan Hendry took a double minor for high-sticking Alexander Semin.

Way wrong move. Brooks Laich made the Blackhawks pay after he whiffed on an attempt. The puck came back to him in the slot, and after Mike Green sent a shot to goalie Antti Niemi, he batted the rebound past Niemi to get the Caps on the board. As important as the goal, Colin Fraser was sent off for high-sticking that left the Caps again on the power play. Nicklas Backstrom used the opportunity to find the back of the net on an odd play. Mike Green started it as he drifted down to the Blackhawk goal line holding the puck. That’s right, defenseman Mike Green holding the puck at the Blackhawk goal line. He sent it out to Joe Corvo, who fired a shot at the Chicago net. Brooks Laich waved at it, trying to deflect it in, but the puck eluded him and hit the end boards. The puck rebounded hard off the boards and past Laich once more, but right onto the stick of Backstrom, who shot it past Niemi, and the Caps were within one.

Not for long. On the next shift, David Steckel won a race to the puck with Nicklas Hjalmarsson to prevent an icing call. Then he outfought Hjalmarsson to get control of the puck, sending it out to Eric Fehr between the hash marks. Fehr wasted no time snapping the puck past Niemi to tie the game.

From an 0-3 deficit and looking like a team checking departure times from O’Hare International Airport, the Caps scored three goals on five shots in a space of 2:16 to tie the game. The teams fought to a draw over the last 12:15 of regulation, neither team getting a goal.

In overtime it was Nicklas Backstrom who was very nearly the goat. As the clock ticked down to the two-minute mark, Backstrom tried a cross-ice pass from just outside his own blue line. But the puck hit Troy Brouwer, who collected it on his stick and skated in on goalie Jose Theodore. Mike Green got back to impede Brouwer’s path to the net while Backstrom was getting back into the play. It was enough to allow Backstrom to sweep the puck off Brouwer’s stick and off the boards, where he picked it up himself. He carried the puck down ice into the Chicago end where he faked Brent Seabrook to the ice, pulling the puck inside to his backhand. Before Duncan Keith could close on him, Backstrom pulled the puck back to his forehand and whipped it between Niemi’s pads for the game winner, capping one of the more improbable comebacks of the season.  The irony of Green making a play at one end and both Seabrook and Keith victimized at the other end seconds later is not lost on us.

Other stuff…

-- All four Caps goals were scored from approximately a five-foot square portion of the ice between and below the hashmarks. For you fans of the Chicago defense, that is as close to unacceptable as it gets. One? OK. Two? Maybe. But four? Bad day for the Blackhawk blueliners.

-- Will Ovechkin be suspended for his hit on Brian Campbell? Well, here is the rule…

23.5 Fines and Suspensions – Stick Infractions, Boarding and Checking from Behind Category - In regular League games, any player who incurs a total of two (2) game misconduct penalties for stick-related infractions, Boarding – Rule 42, or Checking from Behind – Rule 44, shall be suspended automatically for the next League game of his team.

Ovechkin received a boarding major and a game misconduct on November 25th against the Sabres. Under the rule, it would seem he would sit for the game against Florida on Tuesday, at a minimum. Ah, but read further from the rule…

When a player has played in 41 consecutive regular League games without being assessed a stick-related major and a game misconduct penalty according to Rule 20 – Major Penalties or Rule 22 – Misconduct Penalties, he will have the previous game misconduct penalties removed from his current record. They will remain part of his historical record.

The game against Buffalo was Game 25 of the season. This was Game 69. 44 games having passed, Ovechkin will not face an automatic suspension. And if Matt Cooke gets off for ending a player’s season (if not more), then what is going to be the basis for issuing supplementary discipline to Ovechkin?

-- Give Backstrom credit. He really stepped up in this one after Ovechkin’s exit. Two goals, an assist, three hits, two takeaways, two blocked shots, not turnovers. He could have had all three stars for his effort.

-- Although, once more we have to ask… home town scoring? The two teams combined for nine giveaways, total.

-- Please note for future reference… with the game tied, and the clock winding down in regulation, who was on the ice for the last shift for the Caps? John Carlson. He’s not going back to Hershey… ever.

-- Every Chicago center won a majority of draws. Only Eric Belanger kept the Caps from the reverse being true. In fact, Belanger won six of eight draws against Jonathan Toews, no mean feat. Toews won eight of nine against the rest of the Caps he faced. The good thing, though…only 11 draws taken in the Caps’ end.

-- Chicago had one shot on goal in the third period, and that one came with two seconds left in regulation. They had only eight attempts in the period. The Caps ripped a page out of the Blackhawk playbook, allowing only nine shots on goal in the last two periods combined.

-- OK, Backstrom I get… Toews, I get. But how is it that a guy who had a clean scoresheet (but for a first period assist) and who was on the ice for the game tying goal, having been outfought for the puck on a potential icing call, with the scorer all alone in the slot get named third star of the game?

-- Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby get all the ink, it seems, but Jonathan Toews is, for my money, the most underrated player in the NHL. We heard someone before the game liken him to Steve Yzerman. It is not an idle or farfetched comparison.

-- Shaone Morrisonn… five hits, three blocked shots, and he wasn’t on the ice for any of Chicago’s goals. Oh, and he was on the ice with Carlson in that last shift in regulation. A solid, solid game. And he’s been putting together a solid second half, too. Since he was minus-3 in a 7-4 loss to the Lightning on January 12th, he is 1-5-6, plus-16 in 22 games.

-- Mike Knuble will be credited with no points and an “even” game. It doesn’t nearly do justice to the game he had. Eight shot attempts, four on goal, five hits, and a takeaway in just less than 18 minutes. He was making things very tough for Blackhawk defensemen. Keep that in mind for future reference, too. These teams could meet again.

-- The biggest difference between Jason Chimera and Chris Clark is rather simple – speed. Chimera has it and demonstrated it on a few occasions with rushes down the wing. That is a dimension that makes the Caps’ third line more dangerous than it was earlier in the season.

-- 75 hits? They don’t have that many at Soldier Field in November. The Caps were credited with 43 of them (David Steckel with seven). If Ovechkin had hung around, the teams might have broken a hundred.

-- The Caps will be charged with giving up a goal in three shorthanded situations. But we really can’t fault the Caps too much on the goal. A 5-on-3… Toews won a faceoff in the Caps end, then converted a feed while all alone on the doorstep to Jose Theodore’s left. Good teams are supposed to do that.

This game was not an aesthetic masterpiece. The Caps played did not play well in the first 20 minutes, and the Blackhawks were ghastly in the first ten minutes of the third period. The Blackhawks learned a bitter lesson that teams in the East have spent a season learning, that the Caps are not out of games, even when they have to make up multi-goal deficits. The Caps had allowed the first goal 26 times in 68 games and trailed at the intermission in only 13 games heading into this game. But they came back 15 times to win when giving up the first goal and seven times when trailing at the first intermission, both contributing to league leading winning percentage in those items. They improved on both today, to the shock of the Blackhawk faithful.

Now it’s off to take a tour of the Southeast Division – Florida, Tampa Bay, and Carolina – before heading home to meet the Penguins in ten days. It is an opportunity to slam the door on the Eastern Conference race (if they haven’t already) and put distance between themselves and the Blackhawks and San Jose Sharks for the President’s Cup. But this one is worth savoring.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Blackhawks, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

So here we are, a preview of what could be a Stanley Cup final matchup as the Caps visit the rabid confines of United Center to take on the Chicago Blackhawks in a matinee offering. And since the Caps don’t play Chicago often, we bring you another in a series of “Know Your Opponent.” For example, did you know…

-- The name “Chicago” is the French interpretation of the Miami-Illinois word, “shikaakwa,” which means “wild leek.”

-- Chicago is the home of the first “cafeteria” (at the 1893 World’s Columbian Exposition)

-- Chicago is the birthplace of “Cracker Jacks”

-- Chicago is the first city in which the term “jazz” refered to a musical genre.

-- Chicago was the home of the “Lager Beer Riot” (we are not making this up). The Lager Beer Riot took place in Chicago in 1855. It seems that the mayor at the time – Levi Boone (who happened to be a great-nephew of Daniel Boone) – thought it would be a great idea to enact a local ordinance that would close taverns on Sundays and raise the cost of a liquor license, part of a broader anti-immigrant wave sweeping the city. Some tavern owners defied the ordinance, and this resulted in a clash of protesters and police when the perpetrators were brought to court. The riot, such as it was, lasted mere minutes, but the next year Boone was turned out of office, and the ordinance was repealed, thus giving grateful Chicagoans something to drink at hockey games (where, if they have too much, might result in their rushing to the rest room to take a "shikaakwa").

Speaking of hockey games, this one matches two of the most dominant teams in the league, measured by average margin of victory. The Caps lead the league in that measure, beating their opponents by an average of 1.09 goals per game. Chicago is third in the league at 0.79 goals per game. How they accomplish the trick differs. Washington has done it with overpowering offense, scoring almost 19 percent more goals than the second highest scoring team in the league (Vancouver). Here is how dominant the Caps have been. If the Canucks score their average of 3.24 goals per game over their last 15 games and the Caps were to be shutout in all of their last 14 games, Vancouver would barely squeak by the Caps in goals scored, 266-262.

On the other hand, Chicago has done it with balance. They are top-five in both offense and defense, top-ten in both power play and penalty killing, top ten in winning percentage whether scoring first or trailing first. Here is how the overall numbers for the teams compare…

These are two teams that are, in part, mirror images of one another in offensive balance. The Blackhawks have 18 skaters with at least ten points this season; the Caps have 17. Chicago has nine players with at least ten goals; Washington has nine, too. But that balance only extends so far. The Caps have two players with at least 80 points; the Blackhawks have none. Washington has two players with at least 30 goals; Chicago has none. The Caps have two players with more than ten power play goals, the Blackhawks have none. Washington has 13 players at plus-ten or better; Chicago has nine.

But the Blackhawks are the superior defensive team. It is a team that just doesn’t allow many chances. Having allowed only 24.4 shots against per game, that number is more than ten percent better than the next team in line (New Jersey at 27.4 shots allowed per game). By way of comparison, the Caps have allowed 30.9 shots a game (18th in the league). Think this doesn’t matter? Then consider this – for all the talk of the Caps’ goaltending problems, they have a combined save percentage this year that is better than that of the Blackhawks’ netminders (.911 to .902). If the Blackhawks goalies faced as many shots this year as Caps goalies have faced with the same save percentage, their goals against average would be 3.08.

So, what about these Blackhawk goalies? Antti Niemi appears to be the one to get the call for this game after Cristobal Huet played in a 3-2 loss to Philadelphia yesterday. Niemi certainly has done his part in giving the Blackhawks a chance to win. He is 18-5-1 this season and has yet to lose consecutive games in regulation (he does have one set of consecutive losses, one coming Gimmick early in the season). In three appearances since the break, he is 1-1-0, 3.17, .880, and he was relieved once, getting a no-decision in a 5-3 loss to the Islanders in which he allowed three goals on 12 shots in 23 minutes. Niemi has never faced the Caps.

Moving out from there, the defense for the Blackhawks is perhaps their strength. As a group, it is deep, solid, and efficient. The best of the lot is Duncan Keith, who seems to be this year’s reason Mike Green will finish second in the Norris Trophy voting. He ranks second points among defensemen (to Green) and is tied for second in goals. He is plus-20, and he is second in the league among defensemen in ice time. He has points in seven of his last eight games (2-7-9).

That Keith doesn’t get more responsibility is the product of the depth the Blackhawks have on the blue line – enough that they could move Cam Barker (a former number three overall draft pick) to Minnesota for Kim Johnsson. In fact, Johnsson is a part of that depth, providing a more veteran presence than the 23-year old Barker could provide. The 33-year old has played in eight games for Chicago since the trade and is 1-2-3, plus-7 in eight games while getting an average of 16:24 of ice time.

Up front, the scoring load has been taken up primarily by the Patricks – Kane and Sharp. Kane leads the team in goals (26) while Sharp is second (21). Kane does not appear to have suffered a letdown from having participated with Team USA in the Olympics. Since the break he is 1-7-9 in six games. But in doing it he is also a minus-1. Teams are scoring when he’s on the ice. He has played only two games against the Caps in his career, recording one point on an assist.

As for Sharp, he had a two-goal game against the Kings last Wednesday, but has been otherwise rather dormant since the break (2-2-4, even, in six games). That is unfortunate for him and for Blackhawks fans, since he was 3-6-9, plus-8 in four games leading up to the break. He has a goal in seven games against the Caps in his career.

Perhaps the best all-around player on the squad, though, is the captain – Jonathan Toews. He was named captain last season, becoming the third youngest captain in the history of the league (only Vincent Lecavalier and Sidney Crosby were named captain of their teams at a younger age). He is third on the team in goals and assists, fourth in points, and second in power play goals. But he also kills penalties (1:36 in PK time per game) and has won more than 57 percent of his draws while leading all Blackhawk forwards in ice time. He might be hitting a wall, though, after participating in the Olympics, where he was arguably the best skater of the tournament. After coming out of the break with two points in each of his first three games (1-5-6), he is scoreless in his last three and is minus-5. He is 1-1-2 in two career games against Washington.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Marian Hossa

Hossa does not rank among the top-100 scorers in the league this season. Of course, that is a product of his missing 24 games to injury this season. His magic number for the moment is “20.” In 43 games so far this year he has 20 goals, 20 assists, and is plus-20. Perhaps most remarkable, he is tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals (five, with Vancouver’s Alexandre Burrows). He is another Olympian (Team Slovakia) who seems not to be the worse for wear in Vancouver, going 3-3-6 in his last five games. He has been an especially sharp thorn in the sides of the Caps – 23-27-50 in 43 career games.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Going into the Olympic break, Semin was 4-3-7 in the last three games. Since the break, he is 1-2-3 in six games. In fact, if the second line for the Caps was Semin, Brendan Morrison, and Brooks Laich, that trio has a total of two goals since the break. In many ways, though, Semin is the catalyst. If he’s on, the whole enterprise works. He can be a puck-handling wizard (but can suffer the odd moment of just leaving the puck behind). He can be an extraordinary passer (except for the moments when you wonder if he wasn’t passing it to the cotton candy vendor), and he can be an efficient sniper (when he isn’t passing up a shot for a higher risk pass). He is an amazing talent – when he’s on he is the best offensive talent on the team. But when he’s not… and the Blackhawks are a team that can make an opponent pay for not being careful with the puck, especially on the power play; they lead the league in shorthanded goals.

Keys:

1. Fire at will. The Blackhawks’ goaltending is not very good, plain and simple. If either Niemi or Huet face a high volume of shots, they will have their adventures. But Chicago has allowed more than 30 shots this year only 10 times in 67 games. They are 6-4-0 in those games.

2. Get a lead. No team in the league has won more games when scoring first than has Chicago (34 wins). And that is a product of Chicago being second in the league in goals scored in the first period (72). The Caps, it is worth noting, lead the league in first period goals (78).

3. Win the turnover battle. Chicago is a top-five team in takeaways at home. The Caps have committed the fifth highest number of giveaways on the road this season. If this pattern plays out, it plays into the hand of Chicago’s game of playing keep-away and not permitting goals to get through to expose their weak underbelly of goaltending.

In the end, this is one of the big down-the-stretch tests that the Caps didn’t have last season. In the last 15 games last season the Caps did not face an opponent of nearly the quality of the Blackhawks. This year they will get Chicago and Pittsburgh (twice) down the stretch. They will not lack for tests. In this one it is another instance of the irresistible force (the Caps’ offense) against the immovable object (the Blackhawks’ defense). The number to watch is shots. If the Caps go north of 30, that will be a really good sign. As the magic 8-ball says…

Caps 3 – Blackhawks 2

A NO-point night: Lightning 3 - Caps 2

Over an 82-game season there are going to be nights when it just isn’t there. No energy, no bounces, nothing. Last night was one of those nights, as the Caps lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 3-2. It was the first loss for the Caps at home in regulation time since they lost to Carolina, 6-3, on December 28th. And it was the first lost at home in regulation under new captain Alex Ovechkin, ending a 14-0-1 run.

Even with the utter lack of energy on the ice and the fact that Tampa Bay simply outworked the Caps diligently in all three zones, it took a couple of odd goals bounces for the Lightning to pull this one out. In the second period, after Tomas Fleischmann and Brendan Bochenski exchanged goals in the first period, Nate Thompson beat Brooks Laich on a faceoff in the Caps’ end. Stephane Veilleux pushed the puck back to Matt Walker at the left point, and Walker rifled it toward the cage. It appeared to hit a skate or a stick on the way through a clot of bodies, where it took off over goalie Semyon Varlamov’s left shouder, hit the crossbar and went in to give the Lightning the lead they would not relinquish.

The third Lightning goal was stranger, and once more Walker was involved. Out of a scrum in the right wing corner to Varlamov’s right, Teddy Purcell came out with the puck and sent it out to Walker at the top of the zone. Walker flicked it toward the Capitals’ net, where Vincent Lecavalier was getting into position to screen the goalie. The puck came in high, and as Lecavalier ducked, it hit something and deflected into the net past Varlamov. The referee immediately waved off the goal, claiming that the puck was deflected in by a high stick. Lecavalier protested that the puck hit his forearm, and the play went to video review. Lecavalier’s version of events was confirmed by the review and the call was overturned, giving the Lightning a 3-1 lead.

Although the Caps would crawl back within a goal midway through the third period on a power play marker by Brooks Laich, spooning in a loose puck from in front of goalie Antero Niittymaki, that was all the Caps could manage as they went quietly over the last nine minutes.

Other stuff…

-- The members of the first line managed three assists (two for Alex Ovechkin, one for Mike Knuble), but no goals. And none of the assists were registered with the line intact (Tomas Fleischmann getting a goal off assists by Ovechkin and Knuble, Laich getting a goal off an Ovechkin helper). The line was broken up in the third period with Alexander Semin replacing Knuble.

-- It was typical of this game that the big guns for both teams were rather silent. Stamkos, Martin St. Louis, and Steve Downie were all held without a point for Tampa Bay, and Lecavalier scored a goal as a result of ducking away from a shot.

-- Brendan Morrison couldn’t buy a break. He had several fine chances, including one where Niittymaki was down, leaving the top half of the net open. Morrison snapped the puck at an opening over Niittymaki’s left pad, but somehow the goalie got his glove out to corral the puck.

-- Ovechkin had seven shot attempts, only one reaching the net. Compare that to 15 shots on goal in his previous two games. He also had only two hits.

-- Speaking of shots, only David Steckel and Matt Bradley did not put one on goal for the Caps. Eric Fehr and Brooks Laich led the team with five apiece.

-- At least they borught Steven Stamkos’ points/goals game streak to an end at 18 and seven, respectively (he was 9-16-25 over the streak).

-- Every Cap who took more than one draw one the majority of their chances, even Fleischmann, who struggled in this area in previous games at center.

-- Being perfect on the power play was nice, but only giving up one opportunity might have been a perverse reflection on the lack of energy. Another way to put it, it was the first time since January 2nd (in a 2-1 loss to Los Angeles) that the Caps did not score an even strength goal.

-- Home town scoring?... Only three Caps -- Scott Walker, Eric Fehr, and Tom Poti -- were not credited with a hit. Even Fleischmann got one (that makes 26 on the year).

-- 12 of the 18 skaters for the Lightning had their 20 blocked shots (seven Caps had a total of ten).

Give Tampa Bay credit. They worked hard, they got a lead, they played smart with it. They clogged the middle of the ice and prevented the Caps from successfully completing many of the cross-ice or stretch passes that spring guys ahead for scoring chances. And when the Caps did have chances, Antero Niittymaki steered them away. It wasn’t the Caps’ best effort of the season, or of the home stand, for that matter. But Tampa Bay thoroughly deserved the win.

Over 82 games, it’s going to happen occasionally. The other team plays better.

March 11th

March 11, 2006... 22-34-7, had just lost to New Jersey to start an eight-game losing streak; they finished 29-41-12

March 11, 2007... 24-33-8, in the midst of an eight-game losing streak (that would reach nine); they finished 28-40-14

March 11, 2008... 32-30-8, lost to Pittsburgh in the last game (made famous by the Nicklas Backstrom own goal that broke a 2-2 tie with 28 seconds left); the Caps would lose only once more the rest of the way in finishing 43-31-8

March 11, 2009... 41-21-6, beat Nashville in overtime the previous night, finished up 9-3-2 to end the season with a franchise record standings points total while going 50-24-8

March 11, 2010... 45-13-9, clinched the Southeast Division for the third consecutive year.

"I don't think anyone came in rejoicing.  It's nice to know we're not gonna finish lower than third [in the conference], but other than that, we have bigger goals."

-- Brooks Laich, on clinching the division

But don't forget how far the Caps have come, either.

Meet the Cousins

Over at CSNWashington.com, Michelle Scalise has a nice interview with Capitals defenseman John Carlson.  It got us to thinking, we have the cousins -- Fearless and Cheerless -- visit us from time to time to get their, uh... unique take on the Caps.  But no one knows much about them.  So we thought we'd borrow a few questions to give folks a glimpse into the lives of the cousins.  It might go something like this...

The Peerless Prognosticator: What was your best hockey memory?

Fearless: “I can remember it as if it was yesterday… it was a bright winter morning, and we tykes were out on the pond playing a rousing game of shinny. I hadn’t played a lot of hockey at that age, but there I was, winding my way along the ice, stick handling here, stick handling there, and just enjoying the moment.”

TPP: Cheerless?

Cheerless: “Watching Fearless fall down a lot.”

TPP: How old were you when you first started playing hockey?

Fearless: "I think I was born with skates on. It’s just a God-given talent. I can’t remember a time when I didn’t skate, but think I might have been three or four when I started playing hockey."

TPP: How about you, Cheerless?

Cheerless: “Oh, not 'til I growed up some. When Fearless was born with skates on, he tore Momma up bad, and she wasn’t going to have any of that no more.”

TPP: If you weren’t playing hockey, what would you be doing?

Fearless:  "I would be studying art in Milan… or maybe architecture in Florence. Definitely something artistic, to give voice to the human experience."

TPP:  And Cheerless?

Cheerless: "Drinkin’ beer."

TPP: OK, guys, steak or sushi?

Fearless: "Sushi... There is nothing that melds sight and taste like expertly prepared sushi."

Cheerless: "Me, too… barbecued."

TPP: What’s your favorite movie?

Fearless: “'The Seven Samurai' – I so love Kirosawa."

Cheerless: “Crime action movies, mostly.”

TPP: You mean like “The Godfather,” or “GoodFellas?”

Cheerless: “No, like ‘Ernest Goes to Jail.’”

TPP: What’s the last song you sang out loud to?

Fearless: "'Recitar!...Vesti la giubba' from Pagliacci"

Cheerless: “Hey, me too!”

TPP: What’s your favorite place to hang out?

Fearless: “I like to spend the day browsing through the art museums on the Mall.”

Cheerless: “Uh, over my belt?”

TPP: You guys are doing pretty well, what with being frequent guests on a famous hockey blog and all... Have you made a big splurge yet?

Fearless: “What blog is that?"

TPP:  Uh, yeah.  Very funny... the question?

Fearless:  "Well, I have to admit a weakness for antique hockey equipment.”

TPP: How about you Cheerless, have you made a big splurge, yet?

Cheerless: “No, but I usually have a big one right after I eat breakfast.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Didn’t we just do this? The Tampa Bay Lightning come back to Verizon Center tonight to close the home stand that they opened for the Caps eight days ago. It has been a successful stand so far for the Caps, who take a 3-0-1 record into the last game of the set. In the four games they outscored their opponents 14-10. If there has been a blot on the record in the last week is it in special teams. Sure, the Caps are 4-14 on the power play in this home stand (28.6%), but they have killed off only nine of 14 shorthanded situations (64.3%).

“Hey, I got an idea”

What’s that, cuz…

“Don’t call them ‘penalties.’”

OK, Cheerless, what would you call them.

“Kenny’s”

Oh?

“Yeah, like that ‘South Park’ kid?... he gets killed every time.”

Fearless, tell me he’s adopted.

"I’m afraid we’re stuck with him…"

As for the game, the Lightning come into this game with the same sort of disarray we described in the prognosto eight days ago. Going 1-1-1 since then isn’t going to give the Lightning much of the jolt they need to climb in the standings. Neither is coming into Verizon Center to visit the Caps in the back half of a back-to-back. The Lightning lost to the Leafs last night in overtime, 4-3. That is not especially good news for the Lightning. Tampa Bay split their first seven back-to-back series this season (going 7-6-1 in the process), but lost both ends of their last back-to-back – at the Islanders (5-4 on February 13th) and at the Rangers (5-2 on Valentine’s Day).

We’ll refer you to the prognosto eight days ago for some of the details about the Lightning. The overall numbers look like this...

They really haven’t changed in the three games since, especially in one important respect. Steven Stamkos has been tearing up the league. In three games since the Caps and Lightning tangled, Stamkos is 4-3-7. And his running mate – Martin St. Louis – has been right there feeding him. The diminutive one is 2-4-6 in those same three games. One thing that will change is that with Mike Smith having played last night, not to mention he is 0-3, 3.80, .883 against the Caps this season, Antero Niittymaki should get the call in goal for the Lightning.

But what about the Caps? The home team has jumped out of the blocks after the Olympic break, going 4-0-1. This after closing the pre-Olympic portion of the season 17-2-2 after losing to the Los Angeles Kings in the first game of 2010. 21-2-3 is, as they say, “not bad.” What distinguishes the five games since the Olympics is that the Caps have given some encouraging signs that they are clamping down in their own end of the ice. In five games they allowed 11 goals, including a shutout against the Rangers. The flip side of that, though, is that of the 11 goals they allowed in the five games, five of them came on the power play. You could say that outscoring opponents 13-6 at even strength is a good thing (and it is). But getting outscored on the power play 5-4 remains a problem, and it is, in our opinion, the team’s Achilles’ heel, more so than simply saying they have iffy goaltending or less-than-top-shelf defensemen.

In these last five games the Caps have had the benefit of scoring balance. Eleven players share in the 17 goals, and 19 skaters have points.

Mike Green leads the team in scoring in the post-Olympic portion of the season at 3-3-6 in five games. Green continues to lead the league’s defensemen in goals, assists, points, power play goals, power play assists, and power play points, while holding down the second spot in plus-minus (behind teammate Jeff Schultz).

Speaking of Schultz, he had the second consecutive “minus” game for only the second time this year when he went minus-1 against Carolina. He has had only ten “minus” games this season. We’ll say it again – we don’t care if he does it by hitting guys, angling guys off the puck or singing sweet lullabies in their ears, but if more good things happen when he’s on the ice than bad things, we’ll take it. Schultz is very much this generation’s Joe Reekie. He doesn’t look great doing it, perhaps (Reekie’s skating was once famously described by goalie Olaf Kolzig as “painful” to watch), but the job gets done at the end of the day.

What might be surprising in these last five games is the comparative silence of Alex Ovechkin. He is second on the team in scoring over this stretch (2-3-5), but except for a pair of goals against the Stars in a 4-3 Gimmick loss, he has been (for him) quiet. Four points in the last two games suggests that, like the warning signs before the Mt. St. Helens eruption, he is about to break out. Given that he is 23-24-47 in 34 career games against the Lightning (including 3-4-7 in four games this year), tonight might be that night.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ryan Malone

Malone missed a game with an undisclosed upper body injury, but he returned to the ice against Toronto last night, playing ten minutes without a point. Stamkos and St. Louis have been shouldering the scoring load lately for the Lightning, with mixed results in wins and losses. The Lightning need to get secondary scoring support, and that points right to players like Malone. Despite dealing with the bumps and bruises that come with this time of year, Malone will have to be an important cog down the stretch if the Lightning are to climb a few notches in the standings. The problem is that Malone has gone 15 games without a goal and doesn’t have one in four games against the Caps this season.

Washington: Semyon Varlamov

OK, kid… you’re up. Varlamov appears likely to get the call, since Jose Theodore was in net against Carolina on Wednesday. Varlamov is 1-0-1 since the break, but he hasn’t looked sharp in doing it, allowing seven goals on 55 shots (.873 save percentage). Five of those seven goals were allowed in the third period (on 21 shots, a .762 save percentage). Varlamov needs to show he can be good for 60, not just for 40 minutes, or else Stamkos will eat him up (he had a third period goal against Varlamov eight days ago), and he’ll be seeing less and less action down the stretch.

Keys:

1. Big Guns, be Top Guns. Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Mike Knuble have four of the 17 goals the Caps have scored (23.5 percent) in the five games since the break. By way of comparison, they scored 33 of the 67 goals the Caps had on their 14-game winning streak (49.3 percent). Somewhere in between would be good (edit: Knuble appears to be a scratch for this game, so Alex?...Nick?...do your stuff).

2. Finish strong. This applies more to defense and goaltending than offense. In the five games since the break, the Caps have allowed only two first period goals. But they have allowed four in the second period and five in the third. Letting teams back into the game isn’t part of the game plan.

3. Number 9…Number 9… Brendan Morrison scored the game-winning goal in the last game before Christmas in a 5-2 win over Buffalo. He has one goal since, against the Islanders on January 26th. He is 1-10-11, plus-3 over his last 29 games. He is 0-2-2 in four games against the Lightning this year.

In the end… well, in the end the Caps are just better.

Caps 5 – Lightning 2

Back of the envelope

Some quick number shuffling got us to thinking... it's not goaltending, it's not the defense (or perhaps at least defensemen) that could spell the undoing of the Caps.  It's penalty-killing (but you probably suspected that).

We took a quick look at the Caps -- the total number of shorthanded situations and the total number of goals allowed -- and compared performance to what it might be if the Caps were performing at the "median" level of shorthanded situations and goals allowed.

The difference is that the Caps total shorthanded situations would be reduced from 265 to 257 overall.  The total humber of goals allowed would be reduced from 57 to 46.  And the penalty killing percentage would improve from 78.5 percent to 82.1 percent.

These aren't large performance changes -- they only get the Caps to the theoretical midpoint among 30 teams.  But the effect on goals allowed per game would be significant.  They would go from 2.76 goals allowed per game through 67 games (tanked 16th in the league) to 2.60 goals allowed per game. They would jump to 10th best, leapfrogging St. Louis, Montreal, the Rangers, Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Detroit.  And they would be within a few ticks of Colorado and Vancouver.

When the Caps get into the playoffs, the teams will be uniformly better on both sides of the puck.  It seems a bit of a reach to think that they can outscore their penalty killing problem.  Only Nashville is worse among teams currently in their conference's top-eight.  And if you think of San Jose, Chicago, and Pittsburgh as the principal competition for the Caps in the playoffs, those teams are ranked second, sixth, and ninth in penalty killing, respectively.  The Caps are 25th.

That's the sort of difference that suggests the Caps will score enough to be disappointed.

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Hurricanes 3 (OT)

Well, we had the score right, but we did not think it would take an overtime to do it. The Caps needed that extra frame to secure a 4-3 win over the Carolina Hurricanes at Verizon Center. It was Tomas Fleischmann doing the deed at the 3:20 mark of the overtime, taking a feed from Eric Belanger in the right wing circle and one-timing the puck past Hurricane goalie Manny Legace.

It looked like a very uneven game for the Caps. They appeared to have much more jump early than they did against the Stars on Monday. And they played a much more solid game early on defense with active sticks breaking up many plays by Carolina, giving the Caps momentum to initiate their transition game.

The tone was set early when Alexander Semin finished a play started by John Carlson at the other end of the ice. The rookie collected the puck behind his goal line and fed Brendan Morrison at the Caps blue line near the home bench. Morrison wasted no time sending a stretch pass down the wing to a breaking Alexander Semin, who had only defenseman Jay Harrison to beat. Semin worked the angle outside and got position on Harrison. Cutting across the slot, he faked Legace to the ice and lifted a backhand into the top of the net to start the scoring 2:24 in. Hurricanes’ head coach Paul Maurice was not happy…

But what the Cap taketh, sometimes they giveth away… almost… more than once. Jose Theodore was called upon to make a stop on a semi-break by Ray Whitney 6:25 into the period. He had to make bang-bang stops on Tom Kostopoulos.  Later, at the 17:41 mark of the period, Mike Green hauled down Brandon Sutter on a short-handed breakaway, resulting in a penalty shot. Sutter looked rather indecisive in skating in on the freebie, finally choosing to try the forehand on Theodore’s five-hole. Cam Ward… uh, Jose Theodore says “NO.” If you’ve ever listened to a Carolina TV feed, that phrase gets abused into oblivion.

Eighteen seconds later, Mike Green atoned for the takedown and made Theodore’s big save count by potting the power play goal off an amazing pass from Nicklas Backstrom, who from the bottom of the left wing circle sent a saucer pass through traffic and out to Green pinching down the right wing side. Green snapped the puck past Legace, and once more, Maurice was not happy…

The Caps now had a two goal lead… the most dangerous lead in hockey.

Carolina showed why by scoring on their next shift, courtesy of Patrick Dwyer. It was an odd play that started with the sort of effort folks have been wanting more of from the Caps. Jay Harrison teed one up from just inside the Caps’ line, and Mike Knuble went down to block the shot (that's called "leading by example," kids). It seemed to have the effect of making the Caps freeze in their tracks. Harrison took another whack, getting it through to the net where Theodore knocked the puck into the air. As it was fluttering back to the ice, Dwyer whacked it in before any Cap could contest him. Skating off down 2-0 at the first intermission instead of 2-1 seemed to give the Hurricanes a lift in the second.

Carolina got the equalizer 8:43 in on a goal by Tuomo Ruutu. It was the result of a giveaway by Mike Green, who tried to pass the puck through the center of the ice from the bottom of the right wing faceoff circle. It was picked off by Chad LaRose, who in turn found Ruutu to finish the two-on-one created on Jeff Schultz in front of Theodore.

The Caps got the lead back on Green’s second goal, the product of good fortune after the puck squirted back toward the Carolina line out of a scramble in front. Alex Ovechkin whiffed on the moving puck, but Green following in behind him to whistle it past Legace. Again… Maurice was not happy…

But the Hurricanes tied it one more time, this time on the power play at the 15:03 mark of the second period. It was a simple case of Ruutu driving down the left wing side, then whipping the puck back to Jokinen cutting across the grain in the middle. In one sweeping motion, Jokinen fired the puck over Theodore’s glove and it was tied at three, the sort of goal one scores when one is on fire – it was the 16th goal in the last 20 games for Jokinen.

The third period went scoreless, and all that was left was to let Fleischmann take care of business before the Caps had to endure a second straight Gimmick outcome.

Other stuff…

-- Another game, another power play goal allowed. The Caps have allowed at least one power play goal in nine of their last 12 games (35-for-50, 70.0 percent).

-- It was unfortunate for the Caps to allow a power play goal, because early on the penalty killers were active and assertive, not the tentative crew that allowed two on two tries by Dallas on Monday. Carolina was given no time to set up, let alone threaten. If the Caps can take solace, it is in that the Hurricanes managed only three shots in five power plays, two of them by defenseman Brian Pothier.

-- Speaking of special teams… seven shots on four power plays for the Caps (one goal) – good. Giving up four shorthanded shots on four power plays – not so good.

-- Eric Staal… three shots, three misses, a giveaway, and he lost 16 of 24 draws, while going minus-2 in 24 minutes. Not a good night.

-- It wouldn’t be fair to say the Caps played poorly in letting the Hurricanes back into the game. It just seemed that if the Caps made a mistake, it was in the net – letting up after the Knuble blocked shot, the Green turnover, the power play.

-- The Caps forced the play, getting 80 shot attempts to 54 for Carolina.

-- The Caps’ penalties certainly had a “non-hockey” flavor to them… a “clipping” penalty on Scott Walker (that gets called about three times a year)… an interference penalty on Joe Corvo, who set a pick on Zach Boychuk. Good if you’re Shaquille O’Neal, not so good if you’re Joe Corvo.

-- Sometime… sometime soon… Alex Ovechkin is going to go all off on someone. He had 18 shot attempts tonight, many of them from what is for him prime scoring space. The puck might have hit a stick, nicked a skate, or went just wide… but soon…

-- Eric Belanger… 1-for-9 in the dot? Yeesh…

-- Eric Belanger… nice management of the 3-on-2 on the game’s last play to hold the puck and freeze the Carolina defense as Fleischmann was working his way down the right side for the winner. Yay!

-- Take Belanger out, and the Caps were 34 up and 20 down in the circle. It’s all about having the puck, at least if you’re going to play a puck possession game.

-- Brian Pothier had a solid game in his return to Verizon Center… four shots (two others blocked), three blocked shots, and he had a very Mike Green-ish 6:47 in power play time and another 3:30 in PK time on his way to a 26:27 night.

-- Speaking of Mike Green, two shots on the power play, two goals. Hey, do that more often.

-- Nicklas Backstrom got the first star, not so much for his overall play (which frankly, was still not quite the Backstrom we know), but for becoming the fourth player in franchise history to hit 80 points in consecutive seasons (Dennis Maruk, Mike Gartner, and Ovechkin are the others). He got the 80th point with that sweet feed on Mike Green’s first power play goal.

-- The two power play goals put Green at the top of the defenseman heap in that category. He is first in goals, first in assists, first in points, second in plus-minus (behind only Jeff Schultz), first in power play goals, first in power play assists, first in power play points, tied for third in game-winning goals.

All in all, it might not have been the prettiest game of the year, but given that there is at the moment a continuing audition for spots on the third and fourth lines, the second and third defense pairs, and even in goal, getting two points can’t be sneered at for lack of style points. The Caps are still on a 121-point pace for the season, and as the lineup comes into greater focus over the next dozen games or so, you’d have to think they’ll get to that rare air. Part of getting there is grinding out wins like this.

But hey, Paul… smile, you got a point.

Makin' "Whoop"ee

There is a tradition in Caps Nation that bears some explaining to you new fans of the Caps out there. On occasion, you will be watching the action unfold on the ice, and a player from the opposing team will take possession of the puck. All of a sudden, it is as if you were transported to a bird sanctuary where field research was being done with whooping cranes.

WHOOPWHOOPWHOOPWHOOPWHOOP…

What you’re hearing is a love song, of sorts. It is not the “whoop” that calls a mate, but rather Caps fan code for, “YOU USED TO PLAY HERE AND SUCK, AND WE REMEMBER, SO PISS OFF, YA BUM!”

The tradition, if it rises to that level, began during the tenure of Larry Murphy as a Capital. Some of you might recognize the name as that belonging to a defenseman who played in 21 NHL seasons, has his name on the Stanley Cup (with two different teams – Pittsburgh and Detroit), and who is a member of the Hockey Hall of Fame.

Ah, but such was not the case in 1983. In October of that year, Murphy was traded to the Caps from the Los Angeles Kings (for Ken Houston and Brian Englblom, if you’re keeping score). Murphy arrived in the midst of the go-go era of NHL hockey with the reputation of being an “offensive” defenseman. Unfortunately, as Caps fans found out (or perhaps merely perceived), Murphy had “issues” in his own end of the ice. He was prone to the odd, ill-timed turnover and was not among the more physical defensemen of his day, or at least not to the exacting standards of Caps fans, who had the pleasure of seeing the rough-and-tumble exploits of Rod Langway and Scott Stevens in those early-to-mid 1980’s.

Murphy became something of a convenient vessel into which Caps fans deposited all their frustrations at the club not having achieved much in the playoffs. He was booed often, many times merely for being “Larry Murphy.” He was traded to Minnesota in 1989 (with Mike Gartner, for Dino Ciccarelli and Bob Rouse), but that did not end the affair between Caps fans and Murphy.

Enter, the “whoop.”

Upon his each and every return to Landover, Murphy would be serenaded with the call of Caps fans who remembered – not fondly – his time with the club. The “whooping call” became a staple of Murphy appearances, whether he played for Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Toronto, or Detroit (his stops after leaving Washington).

As the whooping tradition took a foothold by virtue of repetition, the practice expanded to other ex-Capitals that had fallen out of favor with Caps Nation. But there was a certain discipline to it. One might “whoop” a Dmitri Khristich (a player who joined the Caps in the 1990s, but never realized his potential before he moved on to Los Angeles and other teams) or a Sergei Gonchar (mainly because now he is a Penguin), but one would never dare “whoop” Peter Bondra (who after setting many scoring records for the Caps was traded to Ottawa for Brooks Laich in the great purge several years ago).

There are players you “whoop,” and there are players you don’t. There are no hard and fast rules about this sort of thing, it being more or less a folk tradition. But there are some general rules of the road about “whooping” that seem to have evolved...

First, the player has to be an ex-Capital. And not just some scrubeenie who played a handful of games (no Curtis Leschyshyn’s here). They had to play an important role on the squad.

Second, they have to have had a flaw in their game, real or perceived. Murphy’s was his intermittent problems in his own end and not being physical enough. Gonchar was the guy who turned the puck over to Marty Straka for the series-clinching overtime goal against the Penguins (then he ended up playing for them).

Third, they cannot have established themselves deep in the Capitals record book (Murphy was with the Caps very early in his career), or they did things that transcended their accomplishments (see: Sergei Gonchar, Martin Straka).

Fourth, one does not “whoop” good guys. Think of the 2003-2004 team that was gutted…

Dainius Zubrus – don’t “whoop” (even if he underachieved in fans’ eyes, he worked hard and was a mentor for Alex Ovechkin)

Brendan Witt – “whoop” to your heart’s content (he didn’t want to stick around for the rebuild)

Mike Grier – don’t “whoop” (another hard worker who just didn’t get the hoped-for results)

Jaromir Jagr – make as much “whoopee” as you please (other than cashing the checks, he didn’t seem to like it here)

Robert Lang – don’t “whoop” (he did all he was asked and was scoring leader in the league when he was traded to Detroit)

Jason Doig – tough call…he was the guy who took the too-many-men penalty that led to the series-ending goal in the Tampa Bay playoff series in 2003 that nearly sent Ted off a cliff, but he seemed a decent fellow who tried hard, and he did pretty much convince Eric Lindros to end his career.

So, when you take your seat tonight with Brian Pothier and Oskar Osala in the house, you might want to consider whether you really want to “whoop” it up. Pothier fought his way back from injury to contribute to a playoff run last year. Osala just wasn’t here long enough to reach the “whooping” threshold (and he seems a decent sort, too).

Whooping is a tradition among Caps fans, not like that silly “one-two-three-it’s-all-your-fault” nonsense, or shouting out “RED” AND “O” during the National Anthem. This is something that goes back decades, whose honor needs to be preserved. Don’t go wasting your “whoops” on every Tom, Dick and Brendan who comes back to pay a visit…

…Oh, Brendan Witt, yes… Brendan Morrison (if he should leave and visit from time to time), no.

The Oscars are over, but...

From this morning's Washington Post...

"Searching for solutions, [Caps assistant coach Dean] Evason, head coach Bruce Boudreau and assistant coach Bob Woods met at Kettler Capitals Iceplex during the Olympic break. They watched, then replayed each power-play goal the Capitals have surrendered this season."

Must have been quite a film.  What would you name it?  "Silence of the Lambs?"  "Night of the Living Dead?"  And folks thought Avatar was long?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s the fourth of a five-game home stand for the Caps, and tonight’s contestant is a familiar one to Caps fans. The Carolina Hurricanes visit Verizon Center for the fourth meeting of the clubs this season and the last one to be held in Washington. So far, the Caps are 2-1 against the ‘Canes, but they dropped the last meeting between the clubs – 6-3 – last December 28th. Speaking of Carolina, we’ll bet you didn’t know…

North Carolina is the birth place of Pepsi-Cola. That’s right. Pepsi, like Coca-Cola, was first made in a southern state (Coke in Georgia). And, like Coke, Pepsi was first made by a druggist (James Pemberton in Columbus, Georgia; Caleb Bradham in New Bern, North Carolina). Lots of sick folk in the south apparently in need of caffeinated drinks made from nuts that frow on evergreen trees in African rain forests, I guess.

North Carolina is the birthplace of Krispy Kreme doughnuts (we’ll pause as you give thanks…). Yup, the first KK store opened in Winston-Salem, NC, in 1933. We’ve been getting fatter ever since.

The Hardee’s fast food chain got its start there, too (we’ve noticed that food franchises like those selling fruit smoothies aren’t started in these parts). There really is a “Hardee” – Wilbur Hardee (of course… it had to be a “Wilbur”) in Greenville started things up in 1960.

Of course, food needs spice, and North Carolina is the home – we are not making this up – of “Texas Pete” hot sauce. “Texas Pete” was picked as its name over “Mexican Joe.” We’re not making that part up, either.

And if you’re thinking Milwaukee is the beer capital of the United States?... nope. Asheville, North Carolina. It has the largest number of breweries, per capita, in the country. Why, I could go for a “Weeping Radish” right now…

While we’re putting a head on that, tonight the Caps host the Carolina Hurricanes, a team they haven’t seen since the Hurricanes embarrassed the Caps on Verizon Center ice, 6-3, on December 28th. The Hurricanes, while they haven’t had as strong a run as the Caps since (20-4-3), have climbed back to respectability from a rough start. The Hurricanes are 17-9-0 since that win and have climbed to within eight points of a playoff spot.

The eight-point deficit Carolina has to make up might be too daunting with 17 games left to play, but the way the Hurricanes are playing puts them squarely in the role of spoiler for those teams that are on the playoff bubble. And the Hurricanes can be more than an annoyance to a divisional foe such as the Caps. The overall numbers for the two clubs look like this…

But what has distinguished the Hurricanes in the last 26 games since beating the Caps is their defense. In those games, Carolina allowed an average of 2.19 goals-per-game. You would think that such a record would be a reflection on goalie Cam Ward, but he has been out with an upper body injury since he took loss in a 4-1 decision against Calgary on February 3rd. Since then, it has been goaltender-by-committee with Manny Legace and Justin Peters.

Losing Ward could have been the last nail in the coffin of the Hurricanes’ season, inasmuch as he was 9-5-0, 2.02, .929 in January before stumbling in his two February starts before going out. Legace is 5-0-0, 1.59, .941 in five appearances since Ward’s departure. Peters has been right behind him – 3-1-0, 1.76, .943. Those four games for Peters represent his first four games in the NHL. He was the sixth goaltender selected in the 2004 entry draft (38th overall)

While the goaltending has been superb, credit needs to be given to the skaters, too. In nine games since Ward left the lineup, the Hurricanes have allowed an average of only 28.8 shots per game. That would rank them with the seventh fewest shots-per-game if sustained over the entire season (by way of comparison, the Caps have allowed 32.4 shots-per-game over their last nine games).

Offense hasn’t been scarce for the Hurricanes since last facing the Caps, either. Their average of 3.19 goals-per-game over that span would rank them fourth in the league in scoring if carried over the course of the season. Part of that is the performance of Eric Staal. He was 2-3-5 in that last meeting between these teams, which was the springboard for him going 12-14-26 in 24 games since. However, he might be suffering the same post-Olympic letdown that a number of other Olympians are suffering. He is 0-2-2 since returning, and he hasn’t had a goal in eight games dating back to February 5th.

While Staal has become the face of the franchise and has had a good 2010 portion of the season, the leading scorer for the Hurricanes is Jussi Jokinen, who has put together a nice set of numbers since the last time these teams met. Since that meeting, Jokinen is 15-13-28 in 26 games and has three game-winning goals in that span. In fact, the 15 goals have come in his last 19 games, and he has not gone consecutive games without a goal in that span. In 11 career games against the Caps, Jokinen is 3-5-8. This year he is 1-3-4 in three games.

Ray Whitney is still with the Hurricanes. You probably would have made a tidy pile of money had you bet that on March 2nd. Whitney, who was the subject of so many trade rumors he had his own index on CNBC, was not moved to a contender. Whether it disappointed him or not that he wasn’t moved, his production since the trade deadline hasn’t been there – 0-0-0 in three games after a six-game points streak leading up to the trading deadline. If there is a team against which he might come out of that funk, it is Washington. There is no team in the NHL against which he has more points (18-31-49 in 55 games).

The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

Carolina: Brian Pothier

Since being traded to Carolina, Pothier had seen a jump in his ice time. In three games he hasn’t played less than 22:17 (he topped that mark only twice in 41 games with the Caps). He has been called upon to skate more on special teams than was the case in Washington – more than three minutes a game on the penalty kill after getting barely a half-minute a game with the Caps this year and almost four minutes a game on the power play after getting a minute and change per game with Washington. He has a bigger role with this team, so he is going to get all the opportunity to make the Caps wish they never made the trade for…

Washington: Joe Corvo

Corvo has been called upon to skate more than 20 minutes in each of his three games with the Caps since the trade. And while his 1:59 in average power play time doesn’t put much of a dent in Mike Green’s lead in average power play ice time (5:03), it is second on the team among defensemen. He has provided, and will continue to provide, some relief for Green on that score. But perhaps more important, Corvo led the Hurricanes in penalty killing ice time before the trade (4:38). He is not getting a lot in that role (1:35) so far, but one would expect that as he becomes more acclimated to the Caps’ systems, he will see that total increase. Hopefully, it will be accompanied by an improvement in the Caps’ overall penalty killing performance.

Keys…

1. Score first. There is no other indicator that has a greater bearing on this game, at least as far as the Hurricanes are concerned, and here is why. Carolina has 27 wins this year. 22 of them came in games in which they scored first. With 81.5 percent of their wins achieved in that fashion, only Philadelphia has a higher percentage of wins (85.3) achieved while scoring first.

2. Be special. The Caps have had mixed success against the Hurricanes this year when it comes to special teams, but not in the way you might think. In three games, the Caps are 2-for-13 on the power play (15.4 percent), while allowing the same number of power play goals in the same number of attempts on the penalty kill. Since the Caps have a considerable advantage in 5-on-5 play, you might think that they could cope with not getting a lot of power play success here. But penalty killing has been a problem – 68.9 percent in 11 games since February 1st. That has to change, or it will make this a difficult evening for the Caps.

3. Mo’ Momentum. And that speaks to the play of Jose Theodore. He was the victim of the Hurricanes' onslaught at the end of December, allowing five goals on 25 shots (Carolina also had an empty-netter). Since then he is 13-1-2, 2.46, .926, and one shutout. Theodore hasn’t had especially noteworthy numbers against Carolina this year – 2-1-0, 3.33, .881 – but he is on top of his game right now.

In the end, the Hurricanes are not a team to be taken lightly. On a wins-losses basis alone, they are 17-9-0 since the last time the teams met, the Caps are 20-7-0. In getting to that record, the Hurricanes haven’t been flukes, either. Along the way, they defeated Chicago, Ottawa (twice, by identical 4-1 scores), Buffalo (twice, also by identical 4-3 scores), and New Jersey. There hasn’t been a lot of distance between these teams in performance over the past couple of months. But the Caps have dominated the Southeast Division to the tune of 14-2-0 this year. All other things equal, they are still the big dog on the block. It might be closer than Caps fans would expect, but the Caps will get to 99 points…

Caps 4 – Hurricanes 3

A ONE-point night: Stars 4 - Caps 3 (OT/Gimmick)

Well, it wasn’t ALL bad.

The Caps saw their 13-game home winning streak come to an end, not with a bang, but with a whimper. Or more accurately, a puck that crawled over the line in the Gimmick, as the Dallas Stars took away a 4-3 skills competition win over the Capitals last night.

The not all bad part…

-- The Caps launched 52 shots in the hockey portion of the program at Dallas goalie Marty Turco, a season high in shots on goal.

-- Alex Ovechkin got off the schneid with a pair of goals to tie Sidney Crosby for the league lead.

-- David Steckel and Tom Poti collaborated for a nice goal when Steckel fished the puck from along the boards, heard Potio tapping his stick from the middle of the ice, and sent a pass to Poti all alone down the slot for a goal.

-- The Caps got a standings point.

-- No one got hurt.

That about covers the “not bad.” After that, this game turned on two things. First, Turco. If that wasn’t his best game of the season for the Stars, it was in his top three. He wasn’t often spectacular, even as the 49-save total might suggest. But he gave the Caps nothing in the way of second chances. Frankly, he should have sued his skaters in front of him for non-support. For 40 minutes, the Caps had free reign in the Stars’ zone, launching shots from everywhere. What Turco didn’t give the Caps was second chances.

Think of it this way… for all the shots the Caps had, Mike Knuble had a total of… one. There wasn’t any garbage laying around for Knuble to whack at. And even though Brooks Laich had seven shots, you couldn’t say he had a lot of put-back opportunities, either.

The other thing was the penalty killing. Folks talk about the Caps’ goaltending (and we’ll get to that), but the Caps’ skaters on the penalty kill were awful. Too much standing around, too much letting Dallas set up in front to screen Caps’ goalie Semyon Varlamov. Of note, Joe Corvo was on for both Dallas power play goals, which was part of a larger problem that he just doesn’t yet look comfortable in this scheme (there was another occasion, not on a power play, in which he abandoned coverage in the middle of the ice on a Dallas rush that left two Caps defensemen on the same side of the ice, leaving room for a Star to skate free down the opposite side for a scoring chance).

But about that goaltending. First, the Stars took three shots, scored on two of them. True, both of them involved traffic in front, but Varlamov did not look to be establishing himself to be in position to stop those pucks, either. And the third goal for the Stars… that wrist shot by James Neal was more the kind you see in pre-game warm-ups. It didn’t look to have a lot of mustard on it, but Varlamov just wasn’t in its line of flight. Right now, this isn’t the goalie who had two shutouts in four games before he was injured. This isn’t a goalie you want to go into the playoffs with. He’s shown himself to be better than that – he needs to start showing that form.

Look, it’s not as if Dallas played well. They didn’t. Their offense, such as it was, wouldn’t scare anyone. The Caps had more shots blocked (27) than the Stars had on goal (26). Their scores came on poor play by Washington, not on superior effort with the puck. You had to think that against this team, Jose Theodore might have had a second straight shutout.

The Caps – shoot, the whole arena – looked dead. It was just too stereotypical of a game against a rarely-seen opponent on a weeknight. There were a fair number of empty seats, there didn’t seem to be a lot of energy in the building. Even Ovechkin, in scoring the two goals, looked for long stretches as if he was coasting (or tired).

Ovechkin did try to drag the Caps along on his shoulders after a lethargic first 30 minutes. Both goals were from the standard catalogue. The first came on a feed from Alexander Semin from the far edge of the left wing circle. From the top of the right wing circle, Ovechkin let fly with a wrist shot that beat Turco clean over his right pad.

The second came when Nicklas Backstrom stepped around Mike Ribeiro at center ice, then slid the puck over to Ovechkin. Cutting down the left side, he cut to the middle, leaving Stephane Robidas guarding air. Another step later, he wristed the puck past Turco to tie the game at three goals apiece. After that, it was an uneventful overtime, then trick shot time, where Loui Eriksson put the Caps and their winning streak out of their misery with a deke and a shot past Varlamov’s right pad that just had enough to get through.

A few other things...

-- Two power plays for the Stars, only 1:32 of total time in getting the two goals on three shots.  That is beyond bad.

-- Watching the stylings of Alexander Semin is like watching the artist who can paint the masterpiece one moment, then can't keep inside the lines in paint-by-numbers the next.  He had some wonderful opportunities in dangling the puck on a string and snapping wrist shots (16 shot attempts in all).  Then there was the shootout.  We didn't see it, but we understand even Marty was shaking his head at that one.

-- Mike Green sometimes just has the air of the teenager who is smart, but can't be bothered doing his homework -- the kid who will make you tear your hair out with his "whatever" attitude.  It's not that he doesn't care, it's just that sometimes he skates himself into positions he can't get out of, then does something really, really bad with the puck.  There was a lot of that last night.  He was charged with only one giveaway.  The scorer must have been at the concession stand often when Green had the puck.

-- Nicklas Backstrom probably had his best game since the break, but that isn't saying a lot.  He still seems to be getting separated from the puck more often than was the case before going to Vancouver.

-- It was a night in which the Caps couldn't fire on all cylinders (again) in this respect -- they got two goals from Ovechkin, but this was the night the secondary scoring was absent. 12 shots on goal from the third and fourth lines, no goals, two points (Steckel and Bradley assisting on the Poti goal).

The Caps can't even be said to play down to the level of opponent in this one.  They had the look of playing in a whole other game.  They just didn't look engaged; there wasn't any energy there.  All in all… just a blah sort of night…